Why I will buy these stocks at every fall! | Akshat Shrivastava Stock Investing

so if you would have put $1 in Amazon in 2008 right now the value would have been $62 similarly if you would have put 500 rupees in Hindustan un liver in 2008 then that money would be around 2500 as of today now all of us understand that Amazon was a great company in 2008 it is a great company even today similarly Hindustan un liver was a great company in 2018 even today it is a great company and future may so the simple road map to generate creting wealth and Equity seems to be that you buy

and hold really good companies but genuinely tell me and honestly tell me that are you able to buy and hold a company for a substantial period the short answer would be a no because most of us retail investors what we typically do is that 25 30% profit whenever we make we cut our position and move on to a new stock so on this video I'm going to help you do two things one is that I will share a framework and if you apply that framework you will have a very clear understanding that what type of

stocks should you buy and hold and up to what point okay so that is one fundamental point that you will learn from this video second I'm going to take you through my list of Buy and Hold type of stocks that I'm currently holding meaning that we will discuss subsequently on the video but please watch this video till the very end also a very humble request that please like and comment on these type of videos so that it reaches out to more people just a simple like from your side will make people more fundamentally aware a

lot of work goes into creating these type of videos so support from your side would mean a lot also I would like to introduce you to the sponsors of today's video which is vested it is an excellent platform for investing in the US market I personally use this platform to make my us-based investments now why do I invest in the US Stocks well the reason is simple that there are many Buy and Hold type of companies in the US and I will take you through the list also that actually gives you diversification benefits and there

are other hosts of benefit in terms of portfolio Construction so definitely if you're investing in the US market consider checking wested I have put my link in the description so please check it out okay so let us understand the Buy and Hold framework and this consists of eight parts okay now this is a framework that I have developed by investing a lot of my own money please note the word that this is Buy and Hold This is not buy and forget buy and forget I do not believe in I think that if you're investing your

money in equities you need to continue educating yourself about the equity Market otherwise you just simply buying and forgetting what is happening with the company right so this is not buy and forget this is Buy and Hold okay so let me take you through eight simple steps along these lines so the first key step and a very common sensical step is that whichever stock you are picking let's say if you're picking Hindustan unit L then the growth of the industry example H is in fmcg right fmcg Market in India now the growth of that industry

should be at least higher than the inflation rate in India for example if you pick certain Industries example could be sugar industry now the growth rate of the sugar consumption if it is let's say 4% and inflation in the economy is 6% then does it make sense to buy these stocks in Sugar industry the short answer is no so the first important step to this entire framework is very simple that pick an industry which is growing higher than the rate of inflation this is critical for example these would be Industries like fmcg it at certain

point in time other Industries like real estate grows much faster than inflation so all these industries could be considered so this is step one step two should be that the industry should have a very high barrier to entry now here let's quickly discuss the case study of Apple now what is the barrier to entry for akat to start a company that can compete with apple now apple is an electronics company akat can also start an electronics company right so there is no barrier to entry no you are studying the industry wrong apple is not like

an Electronics good or Electronics product its industry is luxury Electronics slbr many of them would not even understand the specs around that Apple product that they are buying they are buying Apple products because of the brand or the luxury appeal of that entire product rather than going after 8GB Ram 16 GB RAM and this that right so they are not bothered about that this is a brand and this has massive barrier to entry I cannot come tomorrow and create a brand like apple it's almost impossible for me to create such a brand even if you

take a notch up and think Elon Musk can create some a brand like apple very tough for him to do he might not be able to do that in the electronics Industry per now the third point is that the stock that you're picking it should meet the porters five forces criteria because businesses are Dynamic apple is a great brand today HL is a great brand or a series of Brands today but it's not as if that it will forever stay that way right because businesses change people change people preferences change 100 different changes can come

so you have to monitor it how do you monitor it so you need to apply this framework okay so this is what Porter says and this is a widely taught framework in business schools that whichever company you are picking that can new entry happen in that particular industry what is the buyer power for example in Apple products what is the buyers power for example you and me can we go and tell like Tim Cook by very expensive phones give us a discount of like 30% only then we'll buy it no in Dubai this is happening

that people are running like crazy to buy iPhones so buyers have literally zero here now what about suppliers people who are giving raw material to Apple to make their next iPhone do they have any power they will say that you know what we want all the money first then only we'll Supply to you no nothing like that they have no power there threat of substitution that okay will people stop using iPhones yes this is a very real threat and you should monitor whatever is happening with the Apple products if you're an apple stockholder you should

definitely keep checking this aspect of the game right there are minor minor points please go and read it you will understand this more in case you're more interested in learning about the stock market from a macroeconomics point of view from a framework driven point of view so I teach all this in a live crash course the October batch is completely full you can check my links in the description and comment box we are launching a new batch for January so that is where we will do the next live batch so you can check more information

about this course in the description and comment box the good thing about the course is that if you know absolutely nothing about the stock market everything will be taught fundamentally to you I will be the Lead Teacher I will teach you everything in a step by-step format you will have a lot of clarity around how to analyze businesses how to apply Frameworks how to use macroeconomic style of investing which you can do along with your full-time job and on top of that once the course is completed you will be put on a community an investment

Community we already have close to 35,000 members there so you'll join that Community you will learn from each other so that is the USB of the course so definitely go and check it out okay so then comes the fourth point that any company that you're picking it should be in a space where regulations are predictable now I'm not saying that that industry should be less regulated or more regulated but at least Clarity in regulation should be there a classic case in point is whatever is happening with the gaming companies in India those are definitely not

Buy and Hold type of stocks now if you are going in with the perspective that I will buy company X and I will continue to hold this for a substantial future then you need to pick companies that are predictable in terms of regulations you can't go and buy gaming companies now please note that I'm not trying to criticize gaming companies I have personally invested my money in gaming companies why because the intent of investing there is different those are not Buy and Hold type of stocks for me I'm just playing a theme around as of

now I might very well cut my positions depending on technicals depending on a lot of other things here on this video we are speaking about Buy and Hold type of companies then comes the fifth point that any company that you pick should have vertical and horizontal Al extension opportunities now what is the meaning of vertical and horizontal extension so horizontal extension so let's pick the case study of Hindustan unil now if it is making a shampoo for females it starts making shampoos for kids it starts making shampoos for men it starts making shampoos for dogs

so this is a horizontal extension what is the meaning of vertical extension so let's say that it's making shampoo vertical extension would mean that it starts entering into other type of products also for example it could be hair serum it could be conditioner it could be a bunch of other hair products or makeup products all that stuff so this is called as horizontal and this is called as vertical extension now think about it that let's assume that you only buy H driven Brands now they have existing let's say 1 CR customers now if they launch

a new product then at least 10 20 lakh people are going to buy that new product no so that is the advantage of having built a brand especially in an industry where horizontal extension or vertical extension of product is easier then comes the sixth point it should be like professionally managed scam leadership all that stuff very important Point seventh related Point here is that the profits should be passed on to the shareholders now this is a very important point that people miss people just assume we have bought a profitable company revenues profits growth that this

that but see you are a shareholder in a company you should be considerate of the fact that if the company is making money is it passing that wealth to you in some form be it in the form of dividend be it in the form of stock price rise that this point that I'm going to explain this is very rarely understood so let me pick an example so let's pick the example of IRCTC right now if you go and check investor holding what you will see is that promoter holding is 62 but who is the promoter

here so that's a president of India trading right they are not going to buy a sell shares and be worried about IRCTC is growing or not growing so here the promoter is not really bothered about the growth of thean company now I'm not saying this in the bad spirit with the president of India the point I'm trying to drive home is that President of India is not like a stock market player right he might have other more important things to do so for him IRCTC is not a business where he is too much concerned about

growing shareholders wealth to begin with now comes second type of businesses which are familyowned for example by Mama b b beta everyone is there right now if the company is growing Rich they might buy like Mercedes from company's money they might buy like 50 Villas from company's money they might do 100 different thing with company's money now in that respect what happens is that this fixed asset that you're seeing on the balance sheet who is using them well the company management and all that and where is it getting reflected it is getting reflected in this

fixed asset column okay so now you can argue you know what the corporate government should be there this that but I hope you got the basic picture now this I can create a video in itself explain it to you in Mass detail but I hope you got the intent here so then comes the final point about Buy and Hold that the company that you're picking it should have positive tail winds and negative head winds in the industry now what does that mean for example let me ask you two three basic questions that when it comes

to Conventional automobiles petrol diesel Guardia do you see like a very bright future for them in the future the short answer is no so if you are buying a company like maruti right now with the aim of buying and holding it it's tough you might make like short-term money but you can't say like I mean sensibly you can't say that it will definitely become like an e player in the future and do all good good things might might not happen who knows that Ola electric might beat maruti in that new game that is being designed

in this industry same goes for the health product oriented Industries for example these days shakar everyone understand that it is not good for your health as people understand this point more and more what is going to happen to established player even Something Like H which sells a lot of stuff nesle which sells a lot of stuff so you need to be considerate about these Trends and study these Trends more holistically if you have to factor that into your Buy and Hold I'm not saying that H Nestle is a bad stock for the next two years

this these are Mega Trends it will take time to change but yes you have to be considerate about these Mega Trends because this will disrupt established stocks quite considerably okay so with that said let us move to specific stocks that are buy and hold for me here I do not worry about like you know 5% fall or 5% rise or 10% fall 15% fall no here I'm holding it for at least with a 3 4 Viewpoint where I expecting the share price to double from this point that is the intent with which I'm buying these

stocks first stock that I have in my portfolio is SBI cards now why do I consider it to be a buy and forget now framework majority of these criteria we meet but let me highlight some significant points now the first key thing about the stock is that there is massive Tailwind to the industry now credit cards do you see that this trend is getting stronger or weaker like 5 years from now now according to me India is a deeply underpenetrated Credit Card Market even as of today it has a 30% plus growth rate right now

30 25 what is inflation in the economy maybe like 6 7% right so it's like 4X 5x time growth of the entire industry that is happening and SBI cards is one of the leading players in that industry now you might give me an opposing viewed this that see guys the point is that it is growing four five times inflation right or four five times the growth rate of the economy so to say now if that is happening it's in a growing industry the size of the industry will become this much now even if the market

share of SBI cards go down it's not as if that the company will vanish or right yes our estimates might go wrong that I expecting the stock price to let's say 4X 5x from this point in the next 5 six years instead of 5x it will be 2x 100% gain so what is the problem with that so that is the perspective with which I am looking at SBI cards from an industry growth point of view now additional trends that are supporting so one is that credit card is an aspirational kind of a thing if you

would be going to airports right now segregation airports right if you have HDFC infinia or like you know some big big credit card then you will go to like premium loue if you have like Fu credit card then you will go to some like B loue now this segregation is happening why because all the banks sledit card companies want you to spend more money via credit cards cashbacks UPI link es all these are Trends right give it five more years this is the rise of consumeristic culture in India do I support it absolutely not but

I'm not blind I will at least invest my money and make profits out of it so that is how I see it as an investor now let me very quickly take you through the fundamentals of SBI cards very very quickly right so see it ipoed at 724 right now it is somewhat at that same level there is at least a 30 40% quick upside left on the stock which should happen now I cannot write it on a stamp paper and give you all that stuff but it is likely to give very good returns whenever the

stock runs up so I at least see this stock doubling from this point on top of that if you take a look at the revenue that the company is making or the profit growth are the profits doubling well it is 4 Xing in 5 years and it is compounding at a growth rate of at least 20 25% which is very very high growth rate so under no circumstances I feel that this is an overvalued stock this is a good stock even if you don't check it from a valuation perspective at least for now this is

Buy and Hold now final two things about the stock is that the trend of the stock is positive it is not as if that it is losing market share quite aggressively nothing of that sort competition B because it's a highly profitable industry lot of players are going to enter it and will try to make their own money but here is an important chart and it will show you the total spent amount of SBI cards and you will see that this has more than doubled in The Last 5 Years no problem there final point is regarding

the regulation in this space see guys it's not very easy to launch a credit card company in India as of now the regulations are mostly in a mature stage in this industry it's not as if regulations of course little bit of changes can happen here and there stock can fall by 15 20% anytime that anyways can happen but it's not as if that this industry needs to be heavily regulated from this point now so I will not speak about Finance stocks I will try to speak about them at last so here I have four stocks

in my portfolio one is Microsoft One is Amazon one is apple one is facebook/ meta so these are four stocks that I'm holding these are all very good solid companies and they are somewhat Buy and Hold for the exact same reason and I will outline a couple of important theories here so the first important Point let us quickly discuss Microsoft now Microsoft is a company that is dominating every Tech Innovation that is happening one example would be Cloud right so this is azour which Microsoft is already prevalent in now there is open AI chat GPD

you would have heard about it so many times so Microsoft has it hands here also they have their hands here also they are an asset light company if another Innovation is happening in the industry they can go the acquisition route so what is meant by acquisition is so let's say tomorrow some new technology comes or let's say variable and people are investing a lot of money and buying products around variables and Microsoft is losing the race they have massive amount of money in hand which they have and they will simply go and buy me if

I have created a company in that space that is called as acquisition strategy that has not worked well for companies like Buu which are extremely cost heavy companies these are asset light when it comes to Microsoft Amazon meta all these companies are sitting on massive balance sheets so from that perspective these are solid companies to own there is no problem with the business at least for a substantial future now let's quickly talk about the Tailwinds in the tech industry now there was a study that was done by McKenzie and it says that by 2030 this

much amount of value unlocking will be done now value unlocking value unlocking simply means that think about it this way that in India hypothetically speaking let's say there are 1 CR credit card user and by 2030 it is expected looking at the growth rate that there will be 20 CR credit card user so how much value can be unlocked from that that gives you an estimate in INR or US dollar terms so this is the total amount of new money that will be generated in Tech now who do you think is going to capture this

money according to me it will be the top four companies now we can sit and discuss all day TCS infosis bunch of Indian companies are going to do it maybe maybe not I don't know but I do feel that with meta consider that they can show their product roughly to half the population of world because they have direct access to them WhatsApp Facebook use so the cloud or their ability to reach all these people is massive and Technology adoption is the main level of growth any new tech that comes in if facebook/ meta wants to

sell it they can easily do it they can get the word out very very quickly just by using Whatsapp they have massive Advantage which cannot be replicated so again go back to the framework that I was explaining that if you consider meta right their reach is massive you can't replicate that pter 5 forces say you cannot challenge something like meta in terms of its Market reach short term know 5 10% 20% here there it falls because of valuation this that but the reach is just unparalleled if you're keeping a 10-e viewpoint on the industry from

that point unless of course the regulation changes so far these companies have been heavily regulated there are a lot of concerns but honestly these companies Dodge regulation and according to me regulation is the only risk on these four five stocks that I've just mentioned except for regulation you just cannot compete with Amazon and all these different companies let me show you a very quick case study of Amazon this is a stock that I'm adding more to my portfolio and I will explain it to you in 2 minutes why it will make sense recently Amazon has

started to make a lot more money through ad revenues directly by showing those ads to retail customers you yourself would have seen the sponsored link when you're going and trying to buy products from Amazon those are ad revenues for Amazon just until 1 and a half 2 years ago no one thought that Amazon is going to start challenging companies like Google or meta in terms of the ad revenues in the retail Market but they have been amping up their business and are taking the market share away from Google and meta now see guys I cannot

tell you whether Amazon is going to wear or apple is going to win or this STP tech company is going to win they are going to compete with each other but their cartel that's very difficult to break from this point extremely extremely difficult to do it because of the barriers to entry that these people have created so I'm not overanalyzing it right at least two three of them will continue to expand massively and compound massively from this point now many of times people say that you know what these companies are already very big so grow

rate okay so let me show you the case study of Amazon here so here here are the advertising Services revenue and you can check that they are growing at a 22% kager and Industry right with the amount of money that they are making from this business line itself I'm not saying that Amazon will definitely double in like 2 years 3 years that I cannot take guarantee of but from a consistent compounding point of view they will easily be able to explore 15 20% growth opportunity every single year now again apply that same framework to Apple

stock and I will just highlight it here rather than giving you commentary around it now again this point Point number two and point number five from the framework are very relevant to Apple stock so please check it more com video will become very long now comes the natural question okay where will Apple's growth come from that that even Uber traxi drivers in the US they own Apple products why people have just simply lost it so in America Market is saturating it is right now the most profitable market for Apple now India is a deeply underpenetrated

market for Apple now go and you know burn our money this that students are the first one and give it 5 10 more years give it five more years and you will have people buying like crazy stuff that they can't afford on emis loans this that chasing every new Gadget that is where next layer of growth for an apple like company will come Apple is likely to double from this point okay so from fmcg segment my two picks would be H and dmart now H I've already spoken quite a lot so I will not speak

too much about it it is a consistent compounder it goes at like 15 20% a year it is likely to continue so whenever you see it falling you could consider aggregating now dart's primary advantage is that it competes on cost and it is making that business more profitable how exactly because it owns real estate or whichever real estate it leases it has Leed it out for 20 30 years so from 2030 years the company is not going anywhere it has already been able to create a lowcost operational model which will continue to compound at 20

25% ker both easily sensibly speaking now you and I cannot create another dmart very quickly because the cost of real estate itself has become so high that it's impossible to buy like real estate at sensible prices after 2020 in majority of the places where dmart stores are already in play so this is the simple winning Advantage for Dem so next comes the segment from the healthcare and here I have three stocks which is Max health care Apollo and HDFC life now I'm very bullish on the life insurance industry in fact when HDFC life have been

making videos for a while now I do feel that the stock is going to double why very simple India is a deeply underpenetrated Market when it comes to Insurance the cost of Medical Healthcare in India is going up there is a tie up between the hospitals and insurance company per se for example just to explain my own story my dad has a kidney stone operation the doctor first day ask do you have insurance so he said that see if you have like Insurance stay for 2 days right if you don't have insurance I'll make you

stay only for one day the point is that the doctors or on the side of caution right so what they are going to do is that as people buy more and more insurance this will become a standard practice kidney stone operation you have to stay in the hospital for two days so people by default will say I'll have to take insurance only next time say so that is the bottom line there now I feel that there is a lot of value to be unlocked in the entire HDFC Universe whether it is HDFC Bank HDFC life

HDFC AMC all are solid long-term companies Buy and Hold type of companies for me I'm buying and holding I'm not worried about like 55 10 10% fall here and there why think about it use brain you can understand this entire story just by using couple of Statistics here let's see before the merger of HDFC which is the loan giving arm for houses of HDFC and HDFC Bank only 2% of HDFC Banks custom used to take housing loan from HDFC group now do you think that it will only be 2% no yes it might take like

2 3 quarters four quarters five quarters but don't you think that this number will double triple from this point it can easily double triple so these are basic points that you need to keep in mind I also wanted to discuss more about like Max Healthcare and Apollo and other Finance stocks but unfortunately I've run out of time I'll try to make a video for my Hindi channel so you can definitely go and check it out but thank you so much for watching I hope you enjoyed this this video this conversation and hopefully it made you

fundamentally more aware you can go next and check out this particular video on how to construct a portfolio thank you so much for watching and I'll see you soon