How to Identify Multi-bagger Stocks in 2025 | Ep 46

How many stocks should I have in my portfolio I think that number for a retail investor should not be more than government has launched 50 vat they want to making 900 by 2029 all you got to do is figure out who makes the vand Bharat and Metro coaches there's a company called and there's a company called they make the coaches you map it you'll get your idea only thing is what sort of extra insights that a Warren Buffett Have which a retail investor or a normal investor cannot get the big guys you name Warren Buffett

you name raak Juna the guys who make 20% other ones it decides what you do in a crisis you know one of my very seasoned clients told me once that GM if you want to become rich slowly it will take 15 years if you in a hurry it will take 30 Titan has a bigger sip book than HDFC top 100 fund what are you saying so it's called you start an sip in Tanish okay let's say 5,000 rupes A month you pay 55,000 on the 12th month you can buy a jewelry worth 60,000 now as

a retail investor when is the right time for me to start picking individual Stocks by myself so one is recently sebbi came out with this report that 93% of fno Traders you know people who are you know buying and selling stocks on a daily basis 93% of them have lost money over the last 3 years and on an average this 93% is about 1 CR people by the way and on an average they have Lost 2 lakhs on an average the top 4% of the loss makers have lost an average average of 25 lakhs the

top 1% of the Traders you might be thinking they're making a lot of money these top 1% individual Traders but they are also making just like one lakh profit so my question is who is exactly making money in the stock market by trading right it feels like this giant Casino where the house is making all the money and the Common Man the common middle class People is just losing money so what are your thoughts on this so your uh 1% Club reflects the two reality only 1% Trad actually make money and you know there are

these are high frequency Traders they use AI they use machine learning uh they will put 500 trades at one go thousands of Trades at one go as a retail investor you're looking at the chart thinking of uh you know whether I should buy an option sell an option and the other thing is that you know you Can't compete against them you know even their track record is like 50/50% the high frequency Traders the big hedge funds you would have seen so many news of them folding up you know going long on China 2 years back

and not in India so it's a very difficult trade and one key trade here is risk management you know they are Risk Managers okay retail investors a return manager so because they manage risk they trade with stop losses they you know they hedge Themselves completely it's a very sophisticated trade and as you rightly said Shan it's a it's a casino uh the house wins so I would urge only if you have the skills risk- taking techniques the necessary software the right elos only then get into this otherwise basically people who are going 9 to5 should

not even try getting into fno you're giving them a perfect you're a perfect Slaughter for these high frequency Traders you know and it it can Create a systemic risk which is where sebi is very very worried look at for example in us the fno market is 65% the balance is Cash India is 99% what are you saying yeah so our fno Market is twice in fact two and a half times of us so you know we want everybody wants to get rich quickly like these days I'm seeing of this Auto rsha driver who was making

a real about getting up in the morning going in the auto seeing the trading chart and you know trading and Recently I was also in Mangalore I had gone uh to get my mom an Apple Watch and there's this uh guy who is the guy who explains about the products and he recognizes me he's like you know um I learned a lot from you you changed my life and all of that I asked him okay did you start investing he's like no then how did I change your life he's like you taught me how to

not lose money yeah right he was right this guy who is you know working As a store executive to explain the products he is doing trading and he was like he has lost lakhs of rupees so it has sort of become like this drug right like this uh like people say betting apps are illegal you know you should not bet and all of that so I feel like trading has slowly started becoming like that right it has slowly started becoming a way where wealth is being transferred from the hab knots to the hals oh absolutely

look look at for Example we have three CR people unique people who do sips H we have 17 CR people on REM 11 okay right where you're every betting 100 200 so you know it's this urge of making quick money huh wa three CR people are doing mutual fund sips yeah 17 CR people on dream 11 doing this betting yeah and about 10 CR people playing online Ramy poker so this this so this this is this this tells you about our psyche that we want quick results you know one of my very seasoned Clients told

me once GM if you want to become rich slowly it will take 15 years if you're in a hurry it will take 30 okay so and you know the sooner you learn it right that wealth will come slowly you know the better absolutely so GM I have a very interesting question so obviously you know the current generation is consuming alcohol at a much more rate than the previous generation I would say you know we are starting at a much younger age as Well we're not that Afraid Anymore the culture is changing so by that logic

I would assume that you know because alcohol consumption is increasing the companies which make alcohol should benefit from it so is it a good idea to identify companies which make alcohol and you know make some good money on it as well uh so because people because people say don't buy an iPhone bu the Apple stock so should I not not buy the Johnny Walker and invest in the company Which makes the Johnny Walker blackly good one so see there's one risk between uh a normal consumption company and sin stock I call them sin stocks because

these are considered sin like cigarettes and C alcohol gambling you know these are sin stocks one risk is them the pricing gets controlled by the government so iPhone price will not be decided by the government of India or us it will be apple but a cigarette every budget you can have an increase in exi Duty these are very heavily taxed so on for example a cigarette 70% probably will be taxed right similarly in alcohol there will be heavy taxes because these are not part of the GST these are states perview second a state may decide

for political reason to impose ban on on a pan Masala so Gujarat has a ban on liquor Bihar has a ban on liquor MP is saying I will not issue more fresh Tas and licenses so the government can intervene and anywhere where the Government can intervene with the pricing you can have a bit of a side but I agree with you in terms of potential even in Gujarat you get liquor yeah it's not that you don't get it right so there is potential you got to pick the right ones right so for example India is

largely a Whiskey Drinking Nation we consume more whiskey than vka or or other right so and now what is happening is people are migrating again from the lower end which we call as popular Brands to prestige Brands where premiumization is happening in Al you know right so there the margins are high good thing is now we have Indian makers who are now making their presence F so there is indri which is made by a company called picatti then you have a rampur which is again an Indian brand United Spirits obviously is well known you have

di which is Black Label all series you have a radico which makes listed company which makes IML ITC is there VST is there in cigarettes right but you always have to be ready for a risk where the where even if you regulatory risk so that's that's one that is why these stocks will never be at a very high premium an H or a Tata consumer will trade at 60 70p yeah but an ITC will only trade at 20 25 times because there's always a swad but there's regulation in financial services sector also right so how

is the regulation in the regulator doesn't say You can't make a home loan at 9% now you you're free to decide your home loan rate you're free to decide that I want to I have a bank who can give me a personal loan at 12% he can give another person a loan at 20% because he will price the risk right and here you you know your pricing is not in your control and your consumption is not in your control got it and the other thing you have to be careful about is see Market discounts Futures

why does a market give You a 50 multiple because Market thinks that here on here you will keep doing the corre same thing here you can't do that Beyond a point you don't know later will what the regulation change so the P multiples so they will never be wealth creators they can make money for you but they will not be multivers in the long run they'll never be like extremely yeah uh they'll never grow at a very extreme fast rate because there's always that inherent intrinsic fear correct that the Government can anytime come pricing is

control similarly look at Petrol and Diesel marketing companies the price is decided by the company government the OMC is never you find a bpcl hpcl delivering great returns right it will keep moving up and down but I agree that you know if these stocks are down and you suddenly have a ban and you see the stocks falling eventually it comes back so good time to buy them is when there is a negative news around them Interesting you remember nesle had a ban on Maggie because it had led the stock went down to 6,000 from 177,000

okay I think it's back at 27 28,000 and mag is back in so good time to buy them is there's bad news around there very interesting now tell me now as a retail investor uh firstly I want to know when is the right time for me to start picking individual Stocks by myself right because a retail investor is not Investing in stocks full-time right they have a full-time job as well right they are you know 9 to 7 they are in the office they're you know getting their hard-earned salary and now they're thinking should I

invest this in mutual funds or should I learn how to pick individual stocks and become the next raak Jun Wala right so how to make that decision uh I think both uh discipline can never you know replace stock picking and intelligence you know in the long Run discipline will make you more money so you should have a monthly discipline that you know an x amount of my money should go into the market let's say let's say I making 50,000 rupes per month yeah right and I'm able to save 30,000 rupees 20,000 is rent and expenses

30,000 rupees I'm saving so this 30,000 rupees now I'm deciding between stocks and mutual funds how do I proceed so if you are really busy it's extremely hectic you hardly get the time To research see balance sheets Hair Management calls see you are owning a business if you're a shareholder you are the owner of the business the owner of the business has to be involved in the business you can't say I'll buy the share and I'll forget you know it doesn't work like that in today's world I mean any company can go wrong right you

who would have thought Vodafone will go bankrupt correct 5 years back who would have thought yes bank will go Bankrupt right very surpris right so you know most the big guys can fail right and and king fisher right I can go on I mean every year you have a bank which you never thought could happen right Ana money went bust you know look at the difference between the two siblings right correct so you have to give time to Stocks by time I mean you know get involved see the business updates so if there's no time

then I think 100% mutual fund is the right way to do it give it To a professional get a discipline in place but if you are fond of it you want to make extra wealth you can maybe devot one hour every day or maybe couple of hours a week okay right do common sensical stuff right I'll give you an example now most of us fly Indigo right it's 64% market share okay now you would have noticed every time indigo is on time it tries to reach 10 15 minutes earlier so the Delhi Bombay vistara will

take 2 hours 10 minutes Indigo will do That in 150 correct right and they also are very quick to deboard the plane right so every flight they try and save 15 20 minutes so there is a Howard study 10 minutes saved on every flight is is 200 more flights in a year wow really yeah 10 minutes Saed on every flight is 200 extra flight FL is 200 extra flights in a year and that is why indigo is the only profitable airline in the country second you would have noticed they don't Serve you any hot food

anymore your sandwiches are very cold you don't like it right so they fly ovenless okay it's the only Airline Which flies ovenless you can just observe this you know you don't have to be a an analyst to do that yeah which means there there are basically three ovens in a flight and each of one is about let's say 20 kg it is 60 kg of weight saved you know that translate to about 400 you know four 2,000 3,000 rupees of fuel saved okay 7 lakh flights in a year that's how many Indigo does in a

year yeah 7 lakh yeah that's 400 crores wow damn yeah so they they have mastered the art of cost efficiency uh so the simple Act of not serving hot food in a plane I less they don't they go on less is saving 400 cres CR a year damn no male member in the crew the males are heavier you will only find now you'll Find Fe more women pilots in so they go to that level of uh you know and that's why Indo there are three airlines in the world which are net worth positive what net

worth positive is your balance sheet has cash flas everything everybody makes loss Airline is one business that's called you know uh you know if you want to lose money become bankrupt start an airline everybody became backr by doing an airline right indigo is one of the three most profitable airlines in the World another important thing they only buy one particular model they buy Airbus a A320 the new models which means you can service your aircraft anywhere okay your aircraft won't be grounded for too long if there is a maintenance so so they cracked it and

look at from the IPO the stock is of 5x and every other Airline is struggling to survive so just is trying to avoid bankruptcy right you go anywhere in the world so lot of common sense iCal stuff you know can get To there I'll give you another example you pick the bestselling car today which is it creta which is Keta XV 700 tataa Nexon you get that in the auto data every month there is a CM data that these many cards are sold so you can buy that stock this is a best selling car then

you figure out who's the component supplier of the car okay okay so if you if you sit on a stering you have switches you have power window switches you have alloy wheels touchcreen you Know all of this is made by Uno minda who Uno minda Uno minda Uno minda okay right so airbag alloy wheels touchcreen switches HS LED lights they do it for all the mostly they have like a in a lot of products they have 50 60% market share okay for most car manufact car manufacturers they are the supplies yeah the stock is up

20x in last 6 seven years it was started with the main supplier of maruti okay and now it's IT supplies to everyone so the best selling Model can change the component supplier will not change so quickly then you figure out who's supplying the software for the the car the car is becoming smarter right it's called case connected autonomous shared electric okay the name of the name of the software for the cars which which which cars you so cars want to today capture all data they want to capture the tire pressure when you're going to the

hills they want to capture the AC being used on different Temperatures and then this data can be sold later as as analytics so you figure out who's the supplier of the software of the car earlier the software cost in the car was 10% 5 years back to dat it is 30 by 2027 it will be 60 the car will be basically a computer as you as you you know go forward so once you do the value chain map the best selling car you can buy tataa motos on M&M you can buy unoa software is made

by kpit okay right then you can want to go Level two who makes the locks who makes the tires right so if you do very common sensical stuff you can get into it I mean all you got to do is figure out the size of the opportunity right how big this opportunity is for example in terms of size I give you an example China and India used to sell same number of cars in '90s how much was it uh about 10 lakhs each 10 L 10 LH each about eight 10 lakhs each China today sells

two CR cars a year okay we sell 35 lakh oh We've not caught up we not caught up because the per capita there went up faster right but we sell two cor motorcycles a year okay but China sells lesser motorcycles than car which means what's going to happen is people will migrate more and more from two wheelers to four wheelers right within that people are wanting SUVs the compact SUVs that is why marui is not doing well Mari only makes more sedan right right so if you just track the consumption Trend Right flying in an

airline driving a car the examples I gave you these are all 10 Baggers in last 10 years so the names I took five Baggers 10 Baggers right so a lot of it is common sensical stuff let's say you're traveling today what is the buzz word vhat h right government has launched 10 W 50 W bat these are the trains right no the new trains right which we call our Euro rail which really but yeah that's what they want to make it 900 by 2029 how many are there right Now 50 50 to 900 900 okay

all you got to do is figure out who makes the vand bhat and Metro coaches Metro is another you know having every city is now having a Metro Bombay is now there's a company called tager and there's a company called Jupiter right they make the coaches so you'll have 800 more trains which will come then you have rajanis and shabis and santis of the world which needs to be changed then in a train you figure out what do you need you need a Transformer you need a traction motor you need locomotives you need Wheels you

need electronic systems you map it you'll get your ideas only thing is you have to think four five six years and we get anchored to the price if you become anchored to the business and use common sense chances are you'll get you know six or seven right out of the 10 choices you do so okay so let me just break this down we've been talking for so long so essentially you're like understand what The macro Trends is what is the consumption Trends yes so basically India is getting richer and richer so more people are taking

flights understand who are the airlines which are you know winning this game more people are moving from two wheelers to four-wheelers so basically India is mirroring what is happening in China absolutely and then you're like don't just stop with the end consumer company meaning if a company is selling cars Don't just look at that car company look at who is supplying to this car company because they're also benefiting yeah the bigger money is in ancillaries always okay because those are smaller names and not many people have heard of it not many people have heard of

it so it it doesn't have fro in those companies AB right the retail investor would not have heard of it so they're not probably investing in those companies like the Uno minda company you named not many People know about this company right and it's it's become 20x in last seven years uh and maruti has not moved much maruti was 10,000 rupes in 2016 it's still about 12,000 bucks damn damn so now okay so now is understanding this macro Trend I got it now the thing is okay let's say I've identified this stock let's say uno

uno minda right yeah Uno minda identified this stock NOW obviously the price also considers these kind of things right Uno minda it's like okay a Lot of people know that this company is going to benefit and it is like it has 50 60% market share in terms of providing these equipments to these automobile companies now my question is how do I know if the stock price is correct do I need to get into it because sometimes it could be really overvalued like for example Nvidia like a lot of people have heard about it and now

the stock market has gone skyrocketing I think almost one in three employees over There is a millionaire sure so the stock price has gone up so much so how do I know what is the right stock price to get into sure so first thing is look at the valuation uh of the company it's available on a screener or a money control or any any app today digitally you can figure out right figure out last three years of top line growth so let's take this example let's take unoa for example they used to supply components worth

2,000 Rupees to maruti in 2016 okay they only used to make Central Lock and HS that's it yeah right so if you go to the company website or you go to their annual report today they Supply components worth 38,000 rupes to the car so basically car components 30 38,000 rag 15,000 tou screen 78 ,000 okay alloy wheels you add up it will come to 35 40,000 per car okay how much it has gone up it was you said 2,000 2,000 238,000 20x 20x that's the growth in the stock Last seven years oh okay right so

the what I'm trying to say is price performance is a function of business performance so if your top line is also growing if your profits are also growing you know the stock price will has to go up eventually follow it may not Lally follow right I'll give you another simple example 90% of the market in India when Titan came it was family dwellers 95% we used to go to the family dweller there was no organized Purity Was an issue everything was an issue Titan used to make 40 CR profit and 4,000 CR sale at one

point of time 4,000 CR sale 40 CR profit 80 CR profit 40 50 to 80 crores profit ra Juna started buying it so that is like a 1% profit huh time because you know they were struggling to gain market share and all that today they make 4,000 CR profit okay the top line has become the profit wow the stock is up 100x I don't know if you're aware Titan has a bigger sip book Than HDFC top 100 fund what are you saying yeah really it's called Golden Harvest you pay 11 installments the 12th one is

free okay you start an sip in Tanish okay let's say 5,000 rupees a month you pay 55,000 on the 12th month you can buy a jewelry worth 60,000 okay okay and started linking your marriage plan and jewelry plan with your world so they also did gold planning actually what we are talking of now last three years Tanish actually did it 20 years back damn so okay so now I understood that you need to look at the macro Trends and go very deep in the uh in the the business model right down to you know what

are the supplies for these companies and the stock price usually follows you know with the revenue growth and the profit growth and if you you can analyze the business in a sufficient manner you can make a bet that okay the revenue will go out profit will go up Now the next question is how much money should I actually put in this particular stock because you know let's say I have 10 lakh Rupees of savings and I identified the stock a lot of people get confused how much should I put and that is where people make

the mistake they're like I'll just put thousand rupees and see remaining money will be in FD so much research they'll do and they'll put a small amount of money so my question is how much money to put how many stocks Should I have in my portfolio and what is the returns that I should expect to even make it worth my time cuz had I put in a mutual fund last 30 years I would have still gotten like a 15% return yes so I think uh there's no perfect answer to this you know uh Peter Lynch

made 28% returns he's arguably the best investor and portfolio manager of our times 28% kager for 20 years wow and he did it with 100 stocks okay right but he had the team because he was a portfolio Manager Warren Buffet with apple had 45% he had one stock which was 45% and he 19% wait Warren Buffett had one stock which was 45% of his portfolio Apple was almost $150 billion of his $350 billion portfolio wow yeah he's Obvious off start now he has started sing but so I'm saying uh concentration works with people if you

have a big team like raka Titan was 16,000 crores of his 35,000 CR wealth so one stock actually made a fortune for him he went wrong on a lot Of stocks he went wrong on uh yes Bank he went wrong on dhf he went wrong on so many stocks his aine obviously is not doing great you know but one big winner actually two big Winners chry and Titan actually uh you know just just made it right everything for him because he bought it in a good size so size so what to buy is important how

much to buy is even more important so can you tell me the so I would say there is a saying in our house that they say how many kids You should have how many members should be in the family the ones you can easily feed okay right so number of stocks is in directly proportion to how many you can research and keep track off right I think that number for a retail investor should not be more than 2025 okay it's very difficult to track more than 2025 I I would typically say if it doesn't come

in a piece of paper you're over Diversified okay right it idly should come in a piece your portfolio should Fit in a piece of paper got a piece of paper probably have 20 lines and you know so so you should not take too many stocks because then you lose focus second if you're only buying 1% then it not going to move the needle unless you have picked up a 100 bagger no what do you mean if you're only buying 1 1% of your Corpus let's say you have 10 lakhs and you bought for 10,000 now

even if it doubles correct it doesn't move your needle it's only made 10,000 rupes for you on 10 lakh correct right so typically don't buy Less Than 3 4% if you're very convinced on something if you like something put like 3% of youry into that stock right and highest I think you should ID not cross 10% in a particular stock in a that's my way you know it's not that because SE says so in a mutual fund it's just that the concentration can sometimes eat away your but in case of Warren Buffett and rakes janala

that professionals they Have a big team you know thousands of people working for him you know I'm talking of a normal investor right so you're saying for a retail investor don't have more than 10% of your overall money in one particular stock yes but you're telling me that Warren Buffett and raak Jala it's okay for them to go to that 4050 person because they have a large team so can you tell me what sort of extra insights that these guys are getting which a retail investor or a Normal investor cannot get like what additional information

that a Warren Buffett have which I don't have so this 40% was not on what on day one uh rakaj bought Titan at 5 rupees then he bought it at 50 then he bought it at 100 he also bought it at 1200 okay his last purchase was 12 or 1400 how many of us can buy a stock after the stock goes up you know 100 so the conviction also comes with time warrant profit also didn't buy Apple at one go it did not Become 40% on day one right and their full-time job is Investing For

A retain investor the full-time job is a salary or profession he doing right so if you're full-time into it then you are a professional then you're not a retail investor so only if you're full-time into it take these concentrated bets and your Capital allows you let say these guys if they lose you know some money doesn't matter to them a guy who has 20 lakhs of worth of savings puts 10 lakh In a stock and stock goes you know bottons up or belly up then right it's also yeah so if you are a professional then

is fine to be more concentrated go maybe and conviction also don't do it in one go you know it gets built over a uh you know period of time so resources time and most important patience okay so there there are periods where stock gives zero returns right Reliance I'll give you an example 2011 to 19 zero returns really yeah then it became for 8 Years Z Reliance we're talking about here okay Reliance the biggest company in India has given 0% Z returns for 8 years H in 2003 to7 when stock sunx became 5 to 21

gave zero returns it was 250 300 250 300 after that it became 2500 another 5 years so the returns can be very very nonlinear so even if the company has been growing the stock price did not grow did not grow ah it can fall out of favor you know Market might find another frenzy Like it's finding right now in defense and and Railway right Market is collectively all of us so sentiments Prevail in the short run but in the long run only fundamentals will prevail only the stronger Ones Will Survive right so give yourself time

so have loads of patients if you're buying individual stocks you should have loads of patient you should be okay with stock going down you know 10 20 30% not doing anything for few years as long as your Thesis that Top Line is growing earnings are growing margins are expanding I think these are three big filters so revenue is growing profit is growing and the profit percentage is also growing margin is very very important because margin reflects the value addition companies doing coming back to the unoo example maruti if you remember used to sell hot cakes

you know wagon R Swift yeah Breza you know all all those models it had cracked that 1.3 l engine that Four five lak segment and then then it made various models started with Alto went up to 10 11 lakhs XV 700 Mahindra cracked the diesel engine which was that 1.7 L and then the market started moving towards SUVs you know as cities became more flooded and and all of that so sometimes you just crack a particular model and maruti did not move to SUV so maruti's margin fell from 18% to 11% from 18% it went

to 11% it actually went down to eight because they didn't move To SUVs and the sedan sales were not really catching up so because they did not innovate the profitability went down yeah no the the they were selling like they were selling seven lak cars this now they selling 18 lakh cars but the margin dropped from 18 to 11 which means the profit also dropped but why if the number of if they have gotten more and more sales how did the profitability come down because you are not value adding more to the car you're still

Selling the low end car okay if I add more features to the car right I can sell the same car for few laks higher so I derive more margin out of it it's like you pay 1.5 lakhs for an iPhone but you don't pay more than 50,000 for the other one no the features are almost same it's a premiumization so one or two features Apple will put in huh which will make you pay that so basically marui could not command a higher and higher price but their cost kept on increasing so That is why they

profitability kept on shrink so the margin reflects how much value addition how much premiumization how much Tech how much research you are doing that gets reflected in the margins so never buy companies where the margins are shrinking are static which means not enough Innovation is happening not happening at some point of time you know you'll reach a saturation level and can you give another example where uh a company started innovating and then the Profit margin the sh up yeah so I bought a company called solar Industries in 2016 solar solar it's not solar energy it's

a defense it's an explosive company it used to make explosives like bombs like bombs explosives were used for mining So Co India used to take explosives lot of mining companies used to take my father-in-law had a Crusher in nagpur okay so he used to supply explosives to them so that's how I came and met this gentleman and I'm always Inquisitive it was a listed company so I went to their site during my stay at my inlaw playes just to see what does he do and I went to his site and I saw some defense people

from defense Ministry there and I asked him what are these guys doing here he said we're trying to move into defense now we want to make bombs we want to make high-end bombs rocket launchers we already make explosives so I laughed at it I said I mean you're making a loose you know Ammonium nitrate how can that translate into then they took me to their uh training uh it's called a weapon assessment range they have a 150 acre land where they check weapons okay right so they made me burst a hand grenade for the first

time in my life I I threw a hand grenade in a in a it's like a well you threw that and they were making that hand grenade for how how does it feel like oh it's it's a great feeling I mean you almost want to you know want to blow A few people who you know disturb your how how loud is the sound like it's quite loud it's quite loud you obviously they you have to put the headphones and and the pro do you feel like feel the force or something yeah it's a bit of

that okay you can feel the impact right so the first thing I thought it's a very difficult thing to do if I even give somebody 200 crores is he going to make bombs in the jungle sit with tribal people take environmental clearances and All that and at that point of time this in the jungle it's it's 100 km away from nagpur okay you can't test weapons in the main city right you have to go out right uh and they were making a hand grenade for 1 fifth the cost India was importing from Germany okay that

time the price was 600 bucks for what for the stock for the stock okay yeah that time they used to do uh their turnover uh their profit per quarter was 10 cror okay 15 crores I Bought the stock I said I come so far I found it interesting the entry barrier is high entry barrier being I need to have like a 100 Acre plot of land in the outskirts of the city and test all these weapons yeah and you know it's very difficult thing to I mean making bombs testing getting approvals from government very very

difficult job to do no normal person can't do it and they had secured all the permits and all of that so high barrier to entry to get Into this business today the stock is 12,000 rupes from what did you say it was was 500 600 bucks from 500 600 12,000 rupes 24 times 20 times more than 20 times in how many years in about 6 years seven years wow so this is an example of innovating yeah so now the defense now they are making drones they are making pinaka Rockets pinaka Rockets is what you're seeing

Iran shoot at Israel right that those ranges they are making satellite proplants they've Invested in a startup called skyroot okay which India's first private rocket launching platform okay and and and they're doing I mean you have to visit their uh to see what they're doing so it's it's actually become from a pure bulk explosive Chemical Company a new to a new age defense company you know same raw material same ammonium nitrate so amum nitrate which they were used for making blowing explosives and blowing up mines now They're using it for sophisticated weapons drones you know

rocket launchers damn right so that's see that's Innovation now they are making 200 crores profit per quarter wow from let's say 20 crores what they were making so you you just map pick up a defense just map it it's it's on Google it's you don't have to do too much figure out who's doing drones figure out who's making ammunitions figure out who's making guns right who's making combat Vehicles you will get the list so it's like a golden opportunity it has to happen has to be patient about it just you know you know it's not

going to happen now it's going to take 5 Seven 8 years let's say I don't want to do all of this research because obviously going to be some lazy people right and I know that defense is growing so is there like this one investment opportunity where I can just close my eyes and put into this to ride the defense wave instead of Researching buy the defense index it has 11 stocks okay so there's a Nifty defense index and that itself has given that 20% from the peak by the way the market is alltime high the

index is down because there was a Euphoria right that's one way of simple way of playing it the other way is uh you know give it to a nice professional and ask him that I want some tees to be dominant you defense to be dominant semiconductors to be dominant they say semiconductor is a New oil yeah data centers to be dominant you know you can you can specify each themes and give it to a professional give I mean if you have those resources because professionals will have a minimum threshold of 50 lakhs 1 CR plus

corre depending on the license so you can do that and if you're a Reta investor buy the index buy buy a thematic fund and and play it so I want to go you just lightly talked about the clean energy sector and there's this Data that I read uh the Commerce secretary right the say is saying that India is offering an investment opportunity worth over $500 billion in clean energy uh Renewables green hydrogen and electric vehicles by 2030 right this is again um you know a macroeconomic trend that is coming towards clean energy so knowing this

news now how do I go deeper how do I identify those stocks make the power value chain right okay so we launched an NEP two days back National electricity plan it says the p demand of electricity by 28 29 will be 470 gaw almost 500 gaws which they're saying it will double from what it is right now you are roughly about 240 okay which is a 14% growth so what is 240 GW is your Peak energy demand of India India right now 240 gaw 240 gaw they are saying they they expect it to become close

to 500 in 4 to 5 years so can you just help me understand in terms of layman like what does 250 Gatts actually let's say I consume 100 units of electricity today as a country which is household industry yeah I would need 200 units 5 years from now okay so which means it's going to double it's going to double which means the the power generation will grow at 14 15% the economy will grow at 11 which is 7% growth and 4% the power generation will be 14 15% it's going to go faster than the economy

because the demand of energy is going data center needs tons of and That's why is the demand coming for this for electrification has been done for villages okay so as you become more urban as you grow you will have more electricity more consumption of semiconductors needs tons of energy AI needs tons and tons of energy data center needs tons and tons your EV needs charging your telephone needs charging your gadgets need energy demand is only going to go up right it's not going to come and you're moving towards electric More than thermal so your overall

demand is also shifting right so your demand for generation will go at 14 15% the first thing I should do is pick up a power generating company who makes power so ntpc has 40% market share okay just simple tataa power GSW energy these are the energy producers okay then the government says prime minister says I'm going to put three CR solar panel in solar panels on three CR houses he announced it in the Budget okay so every house will have a solar panel and he'll give incentivized to the houses who put solar panel he will

give them electricity at 2 rupes a or One rupe A unit how much is itwi currently it's about 8 n bucks so you practically offering you energy at so he's saying that if I put a solar panel on my house I can I'm subsidizing you I'm basically I can get the electricity for actually producing it becomes free because solar panel will also produce Now you'll be able to sell also right correct correct right so I'm making so every house will put so what thing what should I do I will pick up companies who are heavily

into solar panel okay right then I know this energy has to be put in the grid I can produce energy it has to be put in the grid it has to be stored somewhere so as per your data this Commerce Secretary also said we need 300 billion Of only transmission kex the grid lines the Transformer the insulators right so which is then you pick up the second company which has a market share in transmission power grid 65% market share in transmission okay then you pick cables and bues you pick you know Transformers you pick insulators

you map the power value chain you will get your 5 seven stocks in that right you have to think like that you have to think in Terms of the demand the big picture H make the value Chain break it down so and also in these kind of um macroeconomic Trends the companies also have that uh Mo 100% right not anybody can come in and take up this market share right so these established companies are usually the ones who are going to get most of the value from this and going to you know reap the benefits

100% interesting so that's what so the fastest way to make money is obviously You know to be an entrepreneur now if you cannot start your own business might is well identify those companies who you know will benefit from it so you cannot say that okay I'm late now I can't start my own business there are already businesses out there you can invest in them and look at this way I by paying 450 bucks I can become an owner in tataa power H by paying 400 bucks I can become an or in ntpc right by paying

350 I can own power grade you know you can part Own so many growth stories in India right you know just by committing very simple amount of uh you know capital staying patient with it and uh you know enjoying the journey okay now any developed Nation manufacturing to GDP is in 203% h we are at 15 government has an official Target of 25% manufacturing to GDP by 2030 but why do they want to increase manufactur more jobs more more self-reliance less dependence on import So it's it's it's logical and and if you grow you want

to be more producing more rather than consuming more instead of importing the um stuff from other countries you manufactur also you don't want people to move out of Agriculture more you want to create more jobs gives more jobs and creates more people into the job ecosystem so so today it is 15 which means when you hit 10 trillion by 2030 right today manufacturing market cap is $500 billion all manufacturing Companies put together okay that should become 2 trillion 2 and a half trillion because it has to become 25% 25% which means while the broader Market

will be 3x in 10 years the manufacturing could be 5x wow okay right so these are some of the things you need to you know look at it from when you're a long see I am a very long-term investor so I will always talk you would have noticed 5 years 10 years so pick those Trends so these are the inefficiencies that you're talking About one was in the financial sector it is you know over it should come down it should come down right now it's 35% you it's almost yeah 34 3 35% second is the

Pharma sector Health only 5% all HDFC HDFC bank is more more than all Pharma put together imagine H got it so there is another inefficiency over there and the third one is the manufacturing sector because that is something that the government's objective that it has to increase and they're doing make in India they're giving a lot of push you know they've given a 25% corporate tax cut you so they giving a whole lot of incentives to to to do that correct and then you figure out what is good for energy is another I told you

will grow it so figure out what's going to grow faster than the economy and then get positioned so let's talk about today the market has corrected by a lot and this is obviously because of geopolitical tensions that is happening so how much Like how much can I you know control these sort of risks in my portfolio uh when things like you know what's happening in Europe something that's happening in Russia or something that's happening in the Middle East like how do I you know control these sort of things from affecting my money so I always

say every 10 years Nifty becomes sunsex okay so I started my career in 2003 that Manan Singh came as the Prime Minister Nifty was 2,000 sunsex was 6,000 okay When Prime Minister Modi came in 2014 Nifty was 6,000 sunx was 25,000 okay so it's just matching in 2024 Nifty is 25,000 sunsex is 85,000 so what should be the Nifty for after 10 years 85,000 so you're saying these kind of things I'm saying you can't control every last 40 years sh every year there's a 10% correction every year there is a 10% correction every year the

name changes Okay every 2 three years there is a 20 25% correction this has been a trend in the last 40 years so you so for example 2002 was bubble before that was Cargill War 2005 was the inflation 2006 crisis 2008 was lemon 2011 was fed taper M right 2015 was demonetization 2018 was GST 2020 was covid 22 was Russia Ukraine war I mean I can go on I can name you know the name changes but is there something that I can do during this un instability where I can you know make some extra money

is there some ways of doing it or should I not even bother no so there there you call we call it step up investing okay so normally you make 14 15% in the market the guys who make 20% other ones see it decides what you do in a crisis the big guys you name Warren Buffett you name raak junal raak Juna bought Titan when it was a to go bankrupt okay waren Buffett bought City Bank I was in City bank then for 50 Cents the stock was $50 H people thought City won't survive he took

a call City Will Survive America Will Survive $50 and it be came down to 50 cents in 2007 99% gone oh it came less than a dollar it came intraday though and then here go you remember oil became negative when Co happened it did oil price became negative because there is a storage cost for the oil oh but how is that even possible like negative oil price because you There there's a cost of storing the oil you need vessels sophisticate that adds to the cost so people actually sh it f long at say 0 actually

became negative and L money right so never so what I'm trying to basically say is never waste a crisis especially in a market like India see you don't need me you don't need anyone to make 12 13% that Nifty will do it for you correct another good thing last 40 years Market has given 14% there are Only two years it has given 14% so either it gives way above or way below so it's like life you know you have a good days bad days correct you know vat kohi gets out on zero he doesn't stop

coming back too bad the next day you know you run today you if you take your blood pressure today twice a day you'll have different readings Market is a straight line is when you have to be worried Right you know I think said this so I think I think what you got so two things you should do if you have liquidity try nibbling in and so let's say let's say right now everybody is saying Crisis crisis Market is going to correct so it could be any reason it could be a geopolitical reason War government policy

changing whatever yeah now how me as a retail investor can take advantage of a bad situation and make extra returns like you said Market Generally gives 12% if I don't do anything and sit back and relax it'll give you 12% for a longterm period yes but I I want obviously want more I want the 20% 25% returns so how can I take advantage of a bad situation and make more money sure so one is tactical one is strategic the Tactical could be that okay everybody's exhausted their inventory of you know bombs and missiles and ammunition

because now we have had extended war with Russia Ukraine NATO Supplied to Ukraine now Iran Israel us is supplying so this time the defense inventory is at 50e low after World War II this is the lowest level of Defense inventry we are sitting at inventry means they are exting stock of amunition is at a lowest level because of all these wars the best thing to do right now is to buy more defense stocks if you ask me right so that's that's one way of thinking second way is ask yourself which companies Will Survive Will a

Reliance go down if there is a Iran Israel war no answer is no will a Tata consumer which sells tea coffee Starbucks no you know Tata Zan will you know will an ITC people will stop smoking 80% cigarettes ask yourself these questions so recession Pro towards stable companies right now which are going through a tough time just because of this news see infosis was 1300 6 months back sh people that AI is going to finish Everything was th000 rupees right today infosis is9 00 is700 the stocks have become 50% so whenever the market has extreme

narrative negativity figure out which companies Will Survive go towards safer established names pick them up right right and and you know sail through second thing is become tactical China is given a stimulus okay what will happen China is going to produce more steel more Commodities typically Commodities do well when China gives us Stimul this a very large giant right you can buy Commodities right so you technically buy which is an immediate beneficiary of the war or the stimulus long-term you buy good companies going through a bad nibble into it so uh for the for the

Tactical you're saying if there's a bad time coming let's say for example war is happening ammunition level is low so I will logically have to invest in defense stocks but if I look at the overall ecosystem then I need to Identify company which are Recession Proof which are needlessly over impacted because of you know the market news identify what those the stocks are and invest in them yeah ask yourself is is this company going to survive will sdfc Bank make through of course will SBI you know so you if you ask these questions you'll get

maybe 10 15 names nibble into it if you don't understand anything just buy a good mutual fund you know let him take that call give him the money on a Dip let him make that call if if you're confused not make the call thirdly remember nothing in India really lasts for a long period of time 2008 since we were at Leman markets corrected 60% yeah what how would you feel like 60% I was in mutual fund then and what is happening used to come crying to office that time there was no digital Redemption okay and

a lift used to stop working people used to you know queue up there and you know you know we we felt It I mean you know I that was you we were very young I was like the customers came crying to the yeah they're crying they said my nav is dropped 60% 70% what do I do and they're crying and you know I want my money back you nobody had seen that this is 2008 2008 25th October it made a low I remember the date also huh you know uh June 2009 we were back at

21 oh okay yeah Co 27th March if I'm not wrong or 28th March we made a low of 75 Nifty from 12,000 may end we were back At 11,000 ni okay right so within 7 months it recover it's it's if you really control your emotions during that period see the loss is notional till you act on it so is profit right so till the time you don't act on it it's a mark to Market loss so let's say the worst situation ever uh you're talking about 2008 financial crisis let's say say I had 10 lakh

rupes invested 60% crash now it's 4,000 rupes how long did it take for that 4,000 to recover back to 10,000 6 s months exactly to recover that's it 6 s months May the 60% loss was recovered this is factual this is and even in Co time also a similar story happened infosis became dropped 90% in the Doom bubble infosis like like a stock like infosis dropped 90% wow.com bubble now had you sold it you would have gone Apple dropped Apple has dropped 50% four times last 20 years wow this is world largest company so it

happens to the best of people right you Can't avoid it I'm saying but at that point of time your logical part of your brain is off you're in panic mode it's your life savings and you know we always say we are more Behavior managers right if you manage Behavior you manage risk of course I think that's more that's a larger part of the job and that's where most people get it wrong got it so gurmit now we've talked so much about so many case studies in the stock market so many opportunities to be made or

you Know so many opportunities to become rich by investing in the stock market and we also know that India is a developing economy one of the fastest growing economies in the world they're currently sitting at 3 trillion uh dollars of uh you know GDP it's going to go to 10 trillion by the end of this decade but even then if I look at the data right there's is RBI data of the uh investment decisions that an Indian takes so what that data says that an Average Indian almost um I think 85% if I'm not wrong

sorry 76% is in real estate yep right and uh another 10% in gold and you know like barely 5% in you know in um mut funds and Equity it was 3% before covid right so it's like barely like 5% and if I look at a country like us 55% Market participation like 55% of an America of Americans they have about 3 350 million people 55% of them invest in the stock market in our case 1.5 billion People less than four or 5% invest in the stock market and it's not like you know they're significantly richer

or something because there also there's a lot of people who are in debt a lot of people who are you know almost in the verge of bankruptcy so what would it take for an average Indian to sort of become more financially literate and reach that level of how an average American investor invests right so maybe here you Can talk a little bit about you know what books I should read you know what I should stay updated on like can you educate what how can I come to that level or how can India reach that level

I'll again give you the 10 trillion picture that's my favorite picture actually right Indians save 20% we are the highest Savers in the world that's why recession doesn't hit us really we are not leveraged like the way us us so US savings is how much nothing I mean They they basically spend everything by the weekend they make most of them are on credit card look at the credit card debt in us how much is it it's more than $2 trillion okay and India you're saying 20% we are saving we are 20% Savers if you add

corporate savings which will be more 18 to 20% is our saving what does corporate sa mean the companies which are saes the company also have reserves right so if you add that it's 22 23 but if you take individual it's about 18 19% Okay now when you reach 10 trillion since you are taking 10 trillion huh how much will we save in a year $2 trillion right let's say we only invest 10% in stock markets okay of that 2 trillion so that's 200 billion a year will come in the market okay that's a lot of

money we need a lot of companies to get listed to absorb kind of money currently this number is about 3 billion a month gross and 2 billion net so we are currently About 25 billion when you mean net some people are removing money so two billion net yeah two two one and a half two billion net so 25 billion is going into the market every year this number will be 100 you know 200 billion eight times okay and this is just 10% penetration I'm not even discussing it becomes 20 or or 25 right we have

56 CR pan card linked to Adar H so that's the your you know Tam total aggress market right and we are Currently at about 10 CR investors 10 CR people have demat accounts unique investors the gross number would be so I think one thing is just play the stock markets buy depositories buy AMCs uh buy banks no that is from a perspective of people are already investing yeah in terms of learning I think see one thing you have to tell yourself anything which doesn't beat inflation you're actually on a tread mill right if you're not

you know our Inflation middle class inflation we are talking of people is not 5% 7 8% it's more than that right anything which is post less than that you're actually bleeding you're not so I think one one book I recommend is is uh which you know is obviously the psychology of money by fantastic book second put calculators in your mind can you give an example so 15 15 15 is 1 CR 15,000 sip 15 years 15% returns is 1 CR H right so just put that number in your mind right make two or Three buckets

okay I would need let's say one CR for my child foreign education if I want to send him I need let's say five crores or three crores for retirement what that number could be you know how much is not an amount it's a state of mind right put that number bucket ask yourself how much will it take to get there the answer you'll get right so I think it's it's not a question of whether you should invest or not right I don't think so there is a Choice you have to for survival you have to

do it for survival and follow this rule of you know 40 30 30 I keep saying this 40 for needs 30 for wants 30 for savings M I pay your bills with 40% provided your salary also has a certain level and I think it's only going to go up see you know how much grow opened uh uh D accounts last month how much n lakhs okay somebody like a grow is opening N9 lakh accounts in a single every month Since covid we have had one lakh demat account opened every month every day every day we

had five CR demat account we are now at 16 17 CR demat account we've added one CR demat every year okay so this number is growing I don't think I think all we need to do is handhold these guys when the market goes in a bad cycle correct and it's my responsibility it's your responsibility it's for every Capital Market participant because these young generation hasn't seen a Correction correct yes it it hasn't seen no returns or negative returns for 3 years that's what I'm Afra afraid of you know a lot of people are getting in

because now the market is have to prepare them we have to tell them that I'm sure you've seen the cycle over and over again whenever there's a bull run more and more people getting into the stock market whenever the market crashes a lot of people like stop and let their demand account absolutely you know it's A marathon it's not T20 see there's a reason I I always call it a test match in a test match you always get a second chance to b or a second chance to ball right right markets also give you number

of chances you know it keep you can come back the other day right at at 9:5 now I have this um you know interesting uh research on you so I was going through your uh Twitter yeah and I went back to 3rd December 2020 okay and you wrote this I left HDFC Bank in 2006 and did Not vest my esops got carried away by a 25% salary hike and switched realized my mistake in 2010 and have been buying 10 HDFC shares every month for 9 years but a colleague of mine who stayed back has now

esops worth 15 crores yes lesson learned never interrupt the compounding process absolutely so what happened here like is this true so HDFC used to give esops even at assistant Deputy manager levels in those days I'm talking about 20045 okay and it was already like a Public if you got a a grade A rating the one rating was a rating A and B ratings were they were you were eligible for esops mandip Metra used to remember was the HR head and uh you know I didn't realize I was too young right and I I got th000

shares and I got 2,000 shares there's this friend of mine I so every only when you get the one or two rating you get you get those shares right but now they only give at VP and above those days Used to give it right down the pyramid HDFC has this policy of not hiring people from uh very intelligent very people from top colleges they want people okay you know with mid-level intelligence tier two colleges because they don't pay that well but they used to you know ensure longivity through esops two of my friends have stayed

even now even now they're still there one of is one of them is my neighbor that 15 CR number is now 22 this tweet is also four Years dated wow it's 22 23 in fact if you would have got more ESOP so I don't know every year he gets there was a teller there was a teller who used to be a cashier huh they also getting USS they used to he used to get he was also at a assistant manager grade okay I think recently he bought a land in uh one of his villages in

up he invested about 3.2 crores wow right so I've been trying to make up for that by buying few shares but you Know I'm not even one1 of or that reach what you have got so I have something in a mind called quantity goals you sometimes get too carried away by the share has gone up so much I have quantity goals for example I want 5,000 shares of Reliance I want 5,000 shares of sdfc Bank I want 2,000 shares of tcis M if you put quantity goals in your mind you can start doing a stock

sip also okay think in terms of quantity right like for example today Reliance fell 5% In two days right the same money I'll get one more share now correct so I get an additional quantity right so I think like that and my goal is that my dividend income should take care of my expens expenses so once I reach a certain quantity so passive income should be so first 15 years active income yeah after 15 years your passive income should take over interesting and today have you reached that point where passive income is equal to 80%

there Almost there to be financially free so all right so there is another thing that you've returned a couple more tweets 85,000 on sensex 26,000 on Nifty timing is impossible so many investors sitting on cash since to 21,000 Nifty you cannot avoid the lows and only enjoy the highs in life investing good in in in life investing good and bad phases are integral unless you have five five year plus Horizon and can tolerate the draw Downs avoid investing so can you tell a Little bit more about this tweet so on a fiveyear basis Market has

never given negative returns in India in a fiveyear basis on a rolling basis any five year you take there's no never negative never negative the only five year it was negative was if you put in 2003 even 2003 if you had put in and 2008 it crashed even then you were positive oh really so 2003 sunx was 6,000 the low lowest point of the crash was 8800 okay right so on a 5 year even After that 60% crash after that 5year period you're still positive you so historically you have never lost money if you have

given 5 years to equity so that was the reason I put five years second as I said you will have draw Downs you cannot draw downset fall in the market you cannot avoid them and the good guys take advantage of it you step up during those times so if you are a buyer today you are an investor if you panic today and you're now seeing your Portfolio then you have not done the right thing right you have to then reassess your risk right that see the markets can take away 30 40 50% like this you

you have to be mentally ready to lose that kind of money right if you're not ready you need to rework your plan absolutely the last uh tweet which is something that recently happened which everybody's raving about of course everybody's aware of what happened when the Cold Play tickets were released I Think almost 1.3 CR Indians tried buying these Cold Play tickets and I think within like a few minutes everything was sold out gone and I did like quick math right if I assume that you know you know excluding the black market if I only look

at the White Market on an average let's say 10,000 rupees per ticket on an average 1.3 CR people are ready waiting in line to just spend 10,000 rupes that itself is a 13,000 CR market so what you've written in your Tweet servers Crashed within minutes of dilji dosan show and Coldplay Urban IND Indians allocating a significant portion of earnings to travel Leisure eating out electronics and entertainment out of home and in home consumption are one of the biggest wealth Creator themes in this decade and zato is now coming up with this new kind of a

company called District which is all about going out and events and partying and chilling yes so knowing how India consumption is Growing a lot of people especially in Metro cities are ready to pay big bucks for outof the home entertainment how do I identify by companies to invest in and make a lot of money brilliant question so it's again simple you pick the best airline today inter Globe which is indigo because you go to an airport today there's more Rush on in the airport lounges than the railway stations these days right so Airline is one

good way of playing it hotels a lot Of people today are willing to catch a flight just for an event which was not the case 10 years back so everybody now s has a travel budget the upper end guy wants to go to Europe and you know exotic locations the middle class wants to do you know Singapore and middle of the nation right the lowest of the guy wants to do religious tourism he will do an aodha he'll go to you know how many there were eight times more tourist in Varanasi than Goa last year

what are you Saying yes imagine what it does to the local economy right from the daa owner to the kirana store to the panwala to the lodge to the restaurant you know it just creates a local economy Europe is all tourism Europe Europe has stopped manufacturing now except Germany you know years back it's basically T right so I think I think it's a great theme to play so and the second thing is we want to be recognized we want to have premium things right so look at the one of the Richest guys in the world

is the owner of lb yeah $500 billion Bernard arold yeah so you know so everybody wants to now own so look at ethos watches basically signaling yeah I want premium watch makers right Hotel uh travel uh tourism I think these are great there's a tourism index by the way really yeah in India in India so there is a travel tourism index which has all these stocks I think that's going to shoot now considering I think consumption will Everybody loves experience travel experience we have 5 7% AC penetration in India I mean something like an air

conditioner we have 5 an essential these days there are two CR bike owners who want to migrate to a car ask ask a biker when it rains ask a biker when there is 42 degrees you know whether he wants to get you an AC car or not right right they we only have very limited real estate owners do you think You own own a house in mombay today anybody with even 2 lakh salary will find it difficult to own a house today correct housing is a great thing Wi-Fi data so today we have 85 CR

mobile connections but we have only have three CR Wi-Fi connections we have 22 CR houses which are eligible for which you can call them as you have who are who have a roof okay right so that's about 70 80 CR people live these are official data obviously It will be more okay which means once you why the reason is we did not have a Geo moment in Wi-Fi what was the geom moment 80 rupes recharge 50 rupes recharge the day you give a lower ticket recharge for House Wi-Fi you know so consumption should not be

looked at only in terms of consuming physical stuff I think the data is the new you know people you go to town Villages see the reals which are being made on Instagram see the number of investors MP and up had we had more demat accounts in up than Gujarat last quarter oh okay yeah most of the investors who are coming are under 30 m so my I'm I'm telling you the job is to manage them they're getting in now you don't need to do anything to get them in they are getting in with the cheer

momentum with the knowledge all of us are sharing different platforms podcast TV interviews social media now we need To manage them the handholding is needed when you go through a rough cycle and rough cycle will come it's how we prepare them we decide this 10 CR will become 50 crores in how quick time so um obviously we've talked about so many sectors everybody is aware that okay defense sector will blow up EV sector will blow up but are there any of these new things that is yet to come in India you know what is the

future going to look like in terms of the new Industries That's going to blow in you know blow up in India any insights that you can share on that aspect uh one theme which is very close to my heart and uh is is recycling I we have screwed mother nature earth Indians consume per head 15 kg of plastics every year every day see just see the number of stuff we buy number of polyenes Etc we use 15 Kos pet bottles the way we drink you know this 100 200 mil bottles we consume 15 kg Plastics

Now government has made a rule that all your pet bottles have to have 30% recycled Plastics okay otherwise you have to pay 5 rupees a kg fine and it goes up to 20 rupes kg every 3 months by 2028 it will be 60% recycled Plastics you identify a company which is into recycle Plastics you'll get the answer got it right name is Ganesha ecosphere I'll tell you the name because I own it right so it's a health hazard which has to be addressed So water treatment uh lead recycling plastic recycling I think if you don't

do it our survival will be of course what is the point of making all this money if the country is not that's one theme I think which will which is very non-glamorous when I picked up Ganesha I went to their plant in kanur they give training to Rack Pickers kabadi walas how to pick Plastics very difficult business to do of course of course making people pick plastic send it to You know make chips out of it then recycle it tough business right correct non- glamous dirty business need of the need of the R so I

think this is one theme second I think India will catch up in semiconductors and data centers okay see us became big by Tech yeah India will be no exception so India is doing lot of steps now in semiconductors uh we have signed a treaty with us it's a lot of Ip related stuff is happening where we have own patents and all uh I think That space has to be monitored one big company is t electronics but unfortunately that's not listed right but keep a tab on it I think this will be the next big thing

over the next uh two three years data center again you know you we uh consume 20% of the world data Data Center capacity is only 3% for India yeah and now where is our data going now so most of the data center were in Bombay because Bombay supplies 24hour data Needs 24hour power you can't have a downtime no of course if I'm sdfc bank I can't have a downtime or if I'm Indigo I can't have a downtime so all data centers were in tan mostly so now they they realize that Bombay real estate it takes

a lot of real estate so now they've started moving out of Bombay for that you need power so there are companies which make specialized batteries for data centers like what are these companies there's a company called HBL power okay they make specialize batteries for defense systems satellites data centers so data center is one data centers semiconductors these are I think a very very emerging theme recycling in my view is the need of the art the moment the more we act there are lot of companies in water treatment you have V Tech Waba is government putting

a lot of budget you have a gel Mission namami GES Mission there's a lot of M money being spent here also it's just the and the Good thing is the companies are all companies are very small all of them are small caps you not find a single large cap company in water treatment there is an opportunity there is a missing space Industrial Metals scraps you know un sexy very unsexy very difficult business to do right and what about biotechnology like you know Gene you know I told you about sequen us bioc secure act I think

is a huge opportunity for it's mainly Addresses biotechnology because it doesn't want genome mapping data to be to be late because that can be used for you know treating humans better like you were talking about earlier that these Pharma companies will not tell you the Cure they'll just give you the bandage right so they'll want to keep making more and more business but a lot of work is happening in this genome sequencing thing in order to sort of give you the medicine that you actually need yes Right without having you know so that you can

be cured better or you can really be fixed for life so any Indian companies who are doing that you know one opportunity is in contract manufacturing because Indians are not innovators that's true yeah so and drugs so a lot of uh I think drugs worth if my data is right about $5 billion are going off patent next two years and then you will have the generic versions available that can be out so that will help There's a lot of work happening on few antibiotics we we haven't had any new antibiotic for last 10 15 years

really India not made any antibiotic there's world over there's been not many antibiotics so you need more antibiotics and there couple of antibiotics which been researched then fertility become a big issue uh unfortunately the conceive you know the women are not able to conceive uh because you know people start their family late biological Changes so a lot of companies coming in fertility centers IVF they are so wom Healthcare would be another very very big Focus right uh area so you have to be in Subs the other thing in India is India is a branded generic

market so you had the doctor wres take Doo uh take crin take D us you buy the salt in US you'll say paracetamol H so us it's India it's like fmcg it's sold like a doctor prescribed right so that is why Indian Pharma Companies have a higher margin that is why a Sia a Mankind Pharma has done better than a son which is into generics so go for Branded guys more uh in Pharma go for contract manufacturers more and look at hospitals I think I think hospitals will be a in my view uh we are

we are I think in terms of number of ICU beds per patient we are wul short okay we need more what is the short huge shortage I think we don't I Think it's one in some 10,000 or 15,000 when Co happened we all of us remember what happened there were no beds so I think hospital capex will go up as as as as see it's like chicken egg more insurance coverage more affordability more beds you know it's all it's all linked yeah I think all of that will happen so now what is your um viewpoint

on startups now I know you mostly deal with you know the public I'm a startup so you're a startup right but your Startup is the one who is investing money in the public markets mostly yes but if I had to look at because we just talked about all the emerging markets in India any startups in India that you feel like is going to really kill it will come into the IPO very quickly and make a killer in the stock market any startups currently that you're really really bullish on I'll tell you what I'm invested in

okay uh I bought CSK shares chenai Super Kings shares when it got Demg from India cements okay for 20 bucks my logic was in the private Market in the private Market it's still available right now I think it must be around 210 okay the business business model is very sexy uh BCCI makes 50% of the IPL money and 50% goes to franchise right so last year the total sponsorship was 46,000 crores which is digital and broadcast BCCI kept 23,000 and 2,300 each were given to 10 teams which means your top line is more or less

secured And every damn promoter in India has a franchise mishani has it the jindel have it the goas have it and they these IPL teams they don't pay tax or something I heard no BCCI doesn't pay tax BC doesn't pay tax registered as a it's like fi it's like schools it's like okay you know they meant to promote a particular thing it's also called section8 companies if my memories of me right they not eligible to pay tax uh so in sports franchise would be a big Opportunity especially cricket and and the way now you know

even Paralympics are being played what is exports franchise what does that mean sports sports if you look at a Manu Manchester United you look at pick up any NBA league like Chicago Bulls and all they're all valued between 6 to10 billion are they on the stock market as well no they're not some of them I think are listed so today a Chennai Super Kings available at $800 million wow That's the first startup you named chai super king is not the first thing that would come in mind I bought it in 2019 for like 20 bucks

or something right now it's it's at 210 or 220 in the unlisted space I think something will come out of semiconductor very soon there a lot of startups which are doing some fantastic work in this space uh that should come out like what do you think of the The Darlings of the startup world like zomato zepto like what do you think of Those big fan of zomato now I did not buy zomato during the IPO because that time blinket was bleeding right I'll give you one data they are doing 2,000 crores of quick Commerce every

quarter yeah there's nothing that's one day sale of Amazon and government doesn't like Amazon and so because Amazon does deep discounting whenever Amazon does well the local markets get killed like look at us JC peny Spencer They're all finished it's only Walmart which would survive India is primarily a mom and pop Store Market kirana Store Market government doesn't want a disrupt they don't want deep discounts they want and quick Commerce does the opposite they integrate the kirana stores a blinket will integrate with the store and will charge you a convenience fees it's not serving you

at a discount similarly a goomart is not serving you at a discount so I think quick Commerce Has huge potential so once the contribution margin picks up it's certain about 3% it's how much you make because right now they're only doing groceries tomorrow they will do iPhones zepto has now started giving iPhone 16 and zepto promoter is what 21 year old guy yeah so I'm very bullish on quick Commerce also the fact is that you are ordering three times a day now you're not keeping any inventory at home correct because you know in 15 minutes

You will you will get so you have frequency so you order three times in Amazon in a month you may order thce on blinket every day right yeah that's what I heard like why quick Commerce did not work in the US is because the US culture is more accustomed to buying groceries once a month they cook and eat for seven days correct in India we like to do it every day we don't like to like stock it have you traveled from the local train in Bombay so when you Cross so I worked in Bombay for

you cross bandra you find vegetable vendors who will give you cut vegetables the mixture is already ready you know the Tomato cabbage onions so that when you go home you don't have to cut them and slice them just put it in a in a utensil like that in the train so Mumbai is is actually way ahead uh you know this happening this this is happening for last 10 15 years wow right so they they sell you cut you know vegetables which Are already you know cut into pieces nicely done so you just go and you

know quickly do cook absolutely so time is the essence see you have now our cooking time has come down from I think 18 hours a week to what 11 hours and with nuclear families this is going I went to Singapore for a training they asked me do you need apartment with gas or with oven I said I said what do you mean he said we have Apartments which have no kitchen so Singapore now has Apartments Which have no kitchen CU people don't cook only they just get something stuff which is already you know made just

put it in the oven and it's oh that is the that is how moving towards that because you don't have joined families anymore nobody wants to spend three hours cooking every day yeah right so you're gradually moving towards that is why anything which has got to do with food see earlier we used to buy even chai coffee sugar all in the open now we buy Everything so everything in your kitchen shelf will become branded your spices you know how much pulses we consume in a year how much Chana rajma Dal 1.8 lakh CR of which

organized Market is only 20% 30,000 cror of which starta consumer somean is only 3,000 H so anything and everything in kitchen will become branded so what has happened to a tea coffee will happen to everything breakast series uh you know pulses Spices everything so basically organization of these uh brand premiumization premiumization of these everyday everyday food product all food but that will usually get uh done by the big big boys in FMC JS no there are a lot of players there are a lot of players so Mrs becta serves buns to McDonald's it's a ludan

based company huge multibagger oh right so it's it's so see food is something you can't it's the Quality and The Taste nobody has a monopoly so that is an opportunity for new entrepreneurs to come yeah food processing in my view and supplying to MNC is a huge opportunity just give an example let's say I'm a so Mrs VOR like I'm a I'm a 30-year-old person and I want to start a business now what is that business that I can get into which has the highest chance of being successful you can make nicely you know good

quality potatoes that's it in your Own farms and you for what for Supply to all CH everyone lays and all your fries every fast food chain including Subway including Burger King including everything needs those you you can make chicken you can make very basic stuff I'm not been getting into the buns and the breads right which you go level two everything can be done so food I think would be a good opportunity because we will conse we'll be keep consuming more and more then you have all of these qsrs Quick Service restaurants right you know

the total market cap of all qsrs in India is Domino's McDonald's Bing everyone you add is less than ham really ham is 75 80,000 CR market cap all listed qsr names are 60,000 CR market cap wow so that's a big opportunity to and this guy sells buia and you know all of that so India is a huge we are Foodies you know by Nature whenever we meet we will discuss food after 10 minutes right right so this is something Which is very no I still remember I'll give you my example I'm from a uh city

called Mangalore right and about 15 years back there was not even a KFC there and I remember the first day KFC came there there was like a huge Quee yeah of people wanting to get in and you know people like me my dad used to take me to Bangalore and had already made me try it so when it came to Bangalore it was like a big deal yeah I just went 2 months back to Mangalore and now I see a Taco Bell and I was like shocked what when did the will come here like all

of these you know these qsr brands are now started coming to Mangalore city as well and Indians love food you know what do you miss most when you travel I mean you look at s ban outlets now yeah yeah I mean I was in the US for one month until I reached California 20 days I had no Indian proper Indian food like I was in Chicago I had butter chicken it was pathetic finally when I went to you know San Jose which is like you know half of them are Indians over yeah it's a Silicon

Valley yeah finally when I went there I could I could get proper Indian food so I'm see I'm seeing There's an opportunity there and there's as I said Pharma is another Healthcare is a huge see we are all our companies are very old so we have a great track record with us FDI yeah right so you here you need a good quality track record we've learned our this since the hard way Pharma is Another big big opportunity there's a lot of pathbreaking research happening in India there's a therapy called car T Cell okay it's a

cancer treatment it can treat cancer at maybe 120 at the cost or what the current cost is okay okay you know so there's a lot of work happening a lot of companies are doing that so a lot of pathbreaking researches and all are happening you should focus on companies who are hiring the most number of scientists like give me an example of Those companies so uh Lis labs for example hasn't done well last two years have 25% staff is only scientists only people in R&D okay they make medicines they used to make uh anti- retro

apis which is the HIV drug API okay unfortunately for them the HIV dis appeared and the drug used to be given Thrice a day the doctor said you can give once a day so the volumes also dropped so now they are moving towards different they now becoming a cdmo Player from a pure API player so it's taking time it's a painful transition it you can't suddenly tomorrow next day make different medicine of course that's a one of the downfalls of pharmaceutical companies so Pharma companies in my view will do well there a lot of startups

which are doing very good work on contract research I think will do well a lot of patents are also being filed in drones and surveillance and Sim ators Etc so defense see the big countries can Take from us how about in Armenia how about the African nations everybody has defense requirements India could be a big sourcing Hub a we are Cheaper By Nature we are jugaru and cost Centric right so there's one company Z technology we discussed they have made a dog robotic dog which can detect mines Indian companies doing this Indian company which you

don't have to send your forces to nexite areas you can first send the dog mechanical robots They make simulators how to give training to tanks and all it's one company which has got 16 patents in last 15 years India's best IP company right now and they have a lot of scientists I'm assuming yeah lot of so can you tell me about what the future of India will look like considering what has already happened in the west like something which is already happened in the West India it has not even begun but it is definitely going

to happen in India very Soon so one we discussed which is financialization and Equity culture I think this will pick up so any bank which becomes a fintech which can really Mig you know I think has a huge opportunity in really shaking this up right so so and so wealth management and the other best part about wealth management is very low Capital intensive very asset light sdfc mutual fund started mutual fund with 25 CR authorized Capital now It makes 300 crores profit every quarter so this is a business where you don't have to invest anything

once you put the amount the money keeps this is infinite Roe correct because the amount will keep increasing the a will keep increasing you don't need to put a plant you don't need to procure raw material you don't put of machinery and all it's it's a people yeah it's just a research team that's your business yeah so I think yeah that's our business so Asset Management wealth management depositories I think will become as big as we will have our uh you know own China has three Banks which are three trillion our largest bank is SBI

which is I think $400 billion the 43 trillion the Gap is like so we will have at least a dozen HDFC ICI SBI of the world which will get to 1 trillion so private sector Banks and is is an opportunity so we'll get there second I think uh Tech I think our Tech Representation is only 14 15% it has to be higher the world is yeah world is there and and I think more and more manufacturing I think the every bull market has a new leader '90s it was cement steel then it was techcom bubble

happened 2003 7 was all infra then Leman crisis happened after that the banks and the baj finance came right 2016 was the new tech like Netflix and Amazon the eCommerce of the world I think this decade should be manufacturing and then Clean energy as well clean energy yes fantastic gmit I think uh on that note let us uh slowly simmer down and bring an end to this conversation it was I think every minute was value packed I think um your almost 20 years of experience in the market uh I think I was only able to

take an iota of it thank you so much for spending on almost 2 hours with us uh I think it'll be very easy for the team to you know edit this because there's nothing much that we can Remove every single minute was you know knowledgeable and anybody who watches this is going to just have their mind open up into the world of stock market and anybody who watches this fully is going to be an informed investor for life so thank you so much for giving us your time thank you for having me thank you thank

you thank you so much thank you thank you guys and I'll see you in the next one [Music]