hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about ethereum and we're going to be discussing the eth Bitcoin valuation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium add into the cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and jump in so I would like to go through the eth Bitcoin valuation and just talk about General expectations that I would have for eth Bitcoin over the next year or so all right so
we have covered eth Bitcoin in quite a lot of detail in fact the very first video on my channel was talking about eth Bitcoin in September of 2019 and back then I said that that was in fact the bottom and that we would likely see eth Bitcoin go up now this cycle this past cycle it became very apparent to me right here that eth Bitcoin would likely spend a while going down um so I didn't you know I I I was still hoping that it would ultimately go higher but once we were out into the
bare Market year you know was April of 2022 and eth Bitcoin still couldn't be compelled to go any higher it really did just start to look like eth Bitcoin was in some type of wof distribution just like what Bitcoin USD did right where you have sort of these Four Peaks and then you you come down here and you get sort of an intermediate low and then another sort of like double or sort of a one2 top really I guess it was just sort of right here and then the market then bleeds from there if you're
not familiar with what I'm talking about as it relates to to to bitcoin USD just go over here uh and and look at at at Bitcoin on sort of the daily time frame and you'll see what I'm talking about back in 2021 it had these Four Tops right sort of an intermediate low and then another sort of one two top there at the end and then Bitcoin USD then ended up bleeding for quite a while right it then ended up bleeding for a long time uh the market just sort of slowly trended down and then
eventually it bottomed out right eventually it bottomed out and was a able to make another run so that was my assumption for eth Bitcoin was that it was likely in this wof distribution where it would then go down to the .3 to .4 range now we are in the 03 to 04 range right right now eth Bitcoin is trading at 0359 and so what I want to do is I want to really look at at what has happened previously to give us an idea of of what to expect all right so there are three clear
cycles that you can look at and they all look really similar to each other right you have your first top here right you so you get your first top in the cycle you set a low right you see you set a low you go back up and you see eth Bitcoin put in a lower high right so we've seen that now here right here and here and every single cycle eth Bitcoin set an intermediate low that acted as support for a while and it acted as support so long in fact that most people thought it
would never break below it right and if you think back a lot of people did not think we would ever see eth Bitcoin trading at the current valuation but yet here we are one of the things you'll note is that this is exactly what has happened previous ly and one of the things to look at is how far below the range low did eth Bitcoin go before it found a bottom okay so when you look at this range low here eth Bitcoin bled about 50% or so maybe a little more than 50% and then the
low was in the cycle after that though it didn't bleed as much it only bled from this point it only bled about 30% now you could argue that that one of the reasons it only went down 30% was because this drop here already was a lot more right so from this peak down to the intermediate low was about a 56% drop but this one down here was closer to an 80% drop so that might explain why the secondary draw below support in 2019 and 2020 wasn't as bad as it was in 2016 it was because
the the a lot of the move a lot of the downside move had already happened I mean h it had already gone down more than 80% from the high so now and what you'll see here if we overlay if we get sort of our last little uh Circle let's make this one green what you'll notice is that every time every time both times right e Bitcoin did eventually find a bottom and it built out a support and then it went up but there's something you should know when did eth Bitcoin go up did it go
up a lot in the preh having year no uh the having year right after the after the structure take took place no the major move up that occurred the last couple of Cycles occurred in post having years right so last cycle you can see that it started here early January two cycles ago the major move didn't really start until March of 2017 so you have 2017 and 2021 right now one of the things I've said is that eth Bitcoin will likely build out a base that it will try to hold as support now let us
really H home this in and see what's going on so so far remember last cycle two cycles ago it dropped about 50% last cycle it dropped about 30% after that intermediate lowest set so how far down has eth Bitcoin already gone well it's already gone about 35% down from the intermediate low so it's actually gone lower than where it went here after it broke down however the initial drop wasn't nearly as much right it was only 45% or so it's actually more similar to what you saw in in 2016 okay so in this case in
this case it makes sense to say okay well we know there is some type of seasonality associated with eth Bitcoin but let's figure it out right let's actually figure it out a little bit more closely now something happened recently that has you know a lot of people talking and that was that our good friend Jon Powell over at the Federal Reserve came out and said no QE no QE for you right no QE for you no QE for me we're going to continue QT the reason why that's interesting is because last cycle we know that
eth Bitcoin bottomed when QE began right so it actually bottomed right there precisely when QE began the cycle before that you can see that you know that the balance sheet of the Fed was basically just constant so it didn't really play a role but once it started to really go down once the balance sheet started to go down that was when eth Bitcoin really started to go down when the balance shoot when the balance sheet went up sorry when the balance sheet went up over here right you can see that eth Bitcoin went up so
a lot of people were confused thinking that eth always outperforms Bitcoin in the bull market it outperforms Bitcoin in qil markets but in QT bable markets Bitcoin Reigns Supreme and Bitcoin dominance goes up so what I would say is that you got to be open-minded you know QE still hasn't started yet there's always a chance that eth Bitcoin could go lower but I also want to draw your attention to another pattern and that is this one where after eth Bitcoin broke down from the intermediate low in 2016 you can see that it had an initial
surve back to the 20 the bull Mark sport band found some resistance just beneath it and then Consolidated and then started to move up in late February early March okay so it took until nearly the end of q1 to really get a strong move all right now look at last cycle after it broke down it rallied up to the bull Mark support band got rejected for a couple of weeks then went up to it again got rejected and ultimately more or less formed a double bottom we've talked a lot about double bottoms and how that's
what you want to look for to sort of get these major moves is to find sort of these double bottoms by Alt on their Bitcoin pairs I don't really consider Ethan Al but that's what you look for those double bottoms you don't always get one right sometimes the market goes up without a double bottom like it did in 2016 but when they are presented you don't want to ignore them right so if you had waited for a double bottom in 2016 then you got left behind in 2019 and 2020 you got the double bottom and
look what happened after it right eth Bitcoin went into a fairly nice bull market so today the question is is well is it repeating this right is it just kind of coming up to the bullmark SP band going down back up back down like that is that where we are it's hard to say but I I do think that eth Bitcoin will go up in 2025 I do um as I said in the last video that I did on eth bitcoin if the low for eth Bitcoin is not in then I would expect it to
only go slightly lower than it already has I wouldn't really expect it to go that much lower I think if you are expecting it to go a lot lower from here um you know you could be right but it is it seems somewhat risky uh to sort of Hope for that especially with it now at 035 and you know it's interesting because back when it was a 08 and I was saying it was going to go to 03 04 A lot of people didn't believe it and now that it's now that it's down here uh
it just seems like a lot of people have kind of given up on it and you know in terms of seasonality this should be expected right the the the negative seasonality for eth right now should be expected because I want to show you something else let's look every year of eth bitcoin's history and when did it find when did it start to find strength okay 2015 it actually got a double bottom right you see it 2015 double bottom one in October and December okay but when did it get the double bottom when December and you
can see that it didn't really really get the big move up until January so the low right the low especially if you look at it just on a line chart and not the Wicks but just sort of these lows you can see that December was the time that eth Bitcoin found that support for the following year if you go to the cycle if you go to the year after that when did eth Bitcoin bottom the last week of December right the last week of December if we go to this on a daily time frame just
to actually nail it down and not and not just sort of say the the week let's see what day did eth Bitcoin bottom in 2016 December 28th right December 28th and and you can see that it actually did the same thing maybe that it's doing now right where it gets sort of a a bounce and it rolls over puts in the final low this low here occurred also in December nice bounce final low and the rest is history so what do you notice two years in a row 2015 and 2016 eth Bitcoin bottomed in December
or at least double bottomed in December 2015 double bottom in December 2016 single low in December and the rest was history but December was the key now look at 2017 when do you think that eth Bitcoin found a low from when it bounced from let's go take a look December 8th it seems like there's a theme what it seems like to me frankly is that ethereum is allergic to December and for whatever reason it is stuck in traffic on struggle Street on its Bitcoin pair in December I don't know why who knows why that's just
the way the market works eth is allergic to December now on its Bitcoin pair get the USD pair stuff out of here the Bitcoin pair 2015 2016 2017 let's create a table so we can keep track right let's create a table uh because it might it might be easy to lose track with everything just being in December right but you have 2015 2016 2017 let's just put them all on here 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 when did eth Bitcoin find either its low or a double bottom either a low or a double bottom 2015
December right 2016 December 2017 December 2017 was right here right what about 2018 what are we working with in 2018 did we get a rally yeah it eventually went lower and if you're following the current pattern it made sense we already we already had this we already had this low and then held the low and then eventually broke down we already had this one this already occurred this cycle uh but guess when it bottomed coincidentally December 7th right December 7th so back to the drawing board back to our table when did it bottom in 2018
oh look at that December all right 2019 what's what well what's going on in 2019 so in 2019 a low in September oh it changes but what did we say either the low or the double bottom right the low or the double bottom close enough to a double bottom right as my channel out of here it's double bottom when was it when was this one o changed it up a little bit right changed it up a little bit January 8th January 8th so now in 2020 eth was not only allergic to December but it was
also allergic to the first week of January all right 2021 or sorry this was sorry this was this was um really it's 2019 right um like it it's you know sort of 2019 you have it in December 2020 where was it it technically went into the next year as well right it technically went into the next year so you have 2015 December 2016 December 2017 December 2018 December 2019 technically January technically it was January of 2020 but this is for the 2019 year it was for the 2019 downtrend of the eth Bitcoin ratio so when
did the bottom occur it was January but I need to sort of note this January 2020 okay so technically the low wasn't in 2019 but the double bottom uh was actually in 2020 but hopefully you kind of understand the table so in 2020 though when did the low occur you can even see there was a rally in November of the having year which is exactly what e Bitcoin did and then it went down and put in a lower low when did it bottom December 27th okay December 27th so let's go back over here and put
that on there now you're you're back to December now let's go look at 2021 did eth Bitcoin bounce not really not not it this is when it really started to to change some okay because you can see that eth Bitcoin actually went up in Q4 of 2021 so in 2021 you're not seeing the same pattern right you're not really seeing that same pattern you're seeing it it play out a little differently where it it doesn't do that same exact thing right so 2021 was different 2022 2022 you can see that in December it found a
low it bounced in in January but it was in fact a lower high we also saw some of that stuff similar Cycles as well where where it Bottoms in December but doesn't mean it's the actual low right like I mean it did the same thing in 2019 and you guys weren't complaining right so it it it found this low in 2018 bounced but eventually went lower so yes sometimes it can eventually go lower but it bounces it gets that bounce sometime starting in December this was December 15th and then it bounced into the new year
okay so you could argue though that in 2022 it was December the good news is while it's not playing out as well as it was previously we talked about this right I mean we said that eth Bitcoin is is bearish for a long time right we said that eth Bitcoin was bearish and that it was likely just going to go down for a number of years 2023 look at this this it found this low January and had a nice bounce right this is where everyone said I was wrong and I and they laughed right and
I was wrong about dominance right this is on this little Wick right here where it went back up and now you look at it you're like well who cares right but that low occurred January of 2024 so you have an interesting pattern right where essentially eth Bitcoin bottoms out in December or early January okay December or January we've seen it happen almost every single year almost every single year that that that it's been around okay so with that in mind I think to myself maybe just maybe e Bitcoin bottoms out sometime between now and January
right sometime between now and and maybe some part of of January if you look back at and it could be that the bottom is in right you you might just get a double bottom if it does what 2020 did then you you could get a sweep of the prior low okay so that that's always possible like if you even you can even overlay the bar pattern here right so if you uh if you take a a bar pattern and just simply look at what eth Bitcoin did in sort of late 2020 you can see kind
of a very similar move right where it it basically rallied up to the bull market sport almost the exact same move actually and then it sold off and then it bottomed out late December early January and then got a nice move so what if right what if and bear with me what if you see some continued weakness by eth Bitcoin for maybe a few more weeks maybe two to three more weeks listen if you're an eth maxi and you've been watching this thing bleed for three and a half years um what's what's a few more
weeks right what's a few more weeks so I would argue there's still a chance that it remains weak for the rest of this year and maybe early January that doesn't mean it has to put in a new low I'm just and it could but I'm not saying it timing the low is impossible so don't even try to do it we're just trying to figure out when the Train's going to move around you know turn around and go back the other way so I would argue either late December or January I could see it happening in
January one of the interesting things about January is that it'll be about a year after the the spot ETF launch so I could you know you could make the case that after that full year um you know I mean it was we talked about before like when the QQQ launched a lot of the flows started sort of slow down a full year later so I wonder if something similar will happen again well maybe not the the the the the price I don't to know what the flows exactly did but the price of QQQ slowed down
about one year later so I wouldn't be that surprised to see eth Bitcoin go up in 2025 right it wouldn't be that surprised in fact I think that should be the base case is that eth Bitcoin goes up in 2025 where it becomes a little problematic is that if you were to take last cycle as sort of the blueprint I guess sort of the elephant in the room is that you know you're calling if we're calling the bottom on E Bitcoin what about the reality that QE hasn't began you know hasn't begun yet and the
next fed meetings not till later on in in January and so you know is there a chance that that e Bitcoin just um continues to show weakness longer than it normally does that's not my base case like I'm sort of like fighting myself here because like I've said a long time that for a long time that it it could be until QE returns but there's a chance that QE returns in January I guess it depends on what the markets do right I mean if the markets just keep selling off like this maybe you will start
to get QE uh in January but the thing is is you know the macro is great you know I'm sure everyone loves the macro but you could also argue that the chart tells the story and that you don't even need to look at the macro and the thing about eth Bitcoin is that if you had no idea about the B about the balance sheet you had no idea about the unemployment rate no idea about inflation or the bond market or any of that stuff if you had no clue about any of it and you just
looked at the eth Bitcoin chart what you would come to the conclusion of or you should is that it bottoms out in either December or January and it normally goes up in the post having year 2021 2017 if you were to look at the monthly RSI of eth Bitcoin look where it is right I mean it's it 33 I feel like I'm having to make the opposite argument right it used to be convincing the eth Maxis that eth Bitcoin was going to go down now I'm trying to convince the Bitcoin Maxis that eth Bitcoin is
going to go up next year it is what it is I mean I I could be wrong but what are the chances we look back at this in a year or even six months and we're like oh that was pretty obvious for anyone who cared to look if you if you look at the weekly RSI on eth bitcoin the only thing I'm you know I'm curious about last cycle sort of tagged that trend line a third time so it is possible to see you know the RSI sort of bleed back down into early January it's
not entirely impossible for something like that to happen but again you know you don't have to time things perfectly to make money or to make sads right you don't I do think that e Bitcoin will in fact go up next year how high I don't know exactly why don't we play around with that I mean if you look at at sort of the FIB retracement if if you assume that 031 or 032 is the low then you know you could easily argue for the the for the 618 next year which would put it back up
between 06 to 007 I kind of think 06 07 is a possibility but there's no guarantee this is the bottom right I mean if the bottom is lower right then that's going to bring that down so where I am right now is I think that eth Bitcoin is in the process of trying to you know form the low right whether it's a single low where it puts in a slightly lower low at the end of the year early next year kind of like that and then goes up or whether it's a double bottom I don't
know right get off my back I don't know which which one it's going to be but I do think it's going to be one of those two options the one thing that I I do look at occasionally just to keep myself in check is a look at the eth market cap divided by the Bitcoin market cap when you look at it like this if you argue that it's an oscillator right there's always a chance that it still has a little bit further down to go if you want to argue that it's an oscillator furthermore we've
talked a lot about Bitcoin dominance throughout the years right but you could also look at at eth dominance and eth dominance as I have said many many many times that it is likely going to bottom out at around 9 to 10% right around 9 to 10% is where I would expect eth dominance to bottom out it's already gone to 12 okay now I said this back when it was at 20% so if it bottoms at 11 I don't even want to hear it okay but it's already gone to 12 I would expect it to bottom
out around 9 to 10 which is not that much further down all things considered right if that seems ridiculous that it could go that low just remember that in January 2020 it was 7 and a half% and two years later it was all the way up at 22% so a lot can change in a year or two and in fact I mean from even from December 2020 it went from 10% % which is exactly where I'm suggesting it goes potentially right right here this was December 2020 going into January 2021 it went from 10% to
20 over 20% in less than a year so it could happen right it certainly Could Happen uh that it plays out in that fashion now one of the things that I've struggled with a lot because I think e Bitcoin is either bottomed or really really close to the bottom uh alt Bitcoin pairs you know they never went to their range lows and I I don't know if they have to or not I historically i' I've really thought they would obviously with dominance being at at 60% already uh it it sort of calls that into question
but you could argue that all Bitcoin pairs have found resistance at this this exact same level before right before going down to the range lows so is there a is there a universe here where eth Bitcoin just kind of is weak for the next three weeks and because of that weakness all Bitcoin pairs show weakness to get back down to the range lows possible it is possible I would also look though they are coming near their bull market support band so if all Bitcoin pairs are going to hold support you would expect them to hold
it right around here okay if you look there was also a spike by all Bitcoin pairs around this time last year and you can see that the recent Spike just swept the prior High over here from a year ago you could argue that alt Bitcoin pairs are sort of forming this broadening wedge right where they're we're we're basically just chasing one narrative after another right like oh it's alt season oh no dominance is going higher oh no it's alt season oh dominance is going higher know it's all and it's just kind of chasing one narrative
after another so it really is an interesting Market I think eth Bitcoin will bottom out within the next month or so if it hasn't already one thing to note is that a lot of you people watching are probably more in tune with ethusd than eth Bitcoin I'm a lot better at predicting eth Bitcoin than eth USD and any one of my followers on here could tell you that okay a lot better at predicting eth Bitcoin than eth USD but I will say this you know when if you overlay ethusd onto this chart right if you
overlay eth USD onto the eth Bitcoin chart one of the things that you'll notice is that when eth Bitcoin got this correction right here off the bull market support band and formed the double bottom it did you know it what ethusd also got a little bit of a correction okay so maybe that's what's happening right you know it it's sort of getting that rejection off the bull market sport band and at the same time ethusd is is getting a correction as well but again you know I I think my my skill set is probably better
suited uh for eth Bitcoin than ethusd because I always thought ethusd would eventually go home before going to new alltime Highs but it certainly appears like I was wrong I mean I guess technically eth USD is not at new highs just yet but it never it never made that move um and you know obviously anything can happen at any given point but it never made that move and the reason I I talked about it was basically just I I thought you know 2016 eth USD had a correction in April August and December therefore maybe 2024
will have the same thing right where you have sort of a correction in April August and December I kind of given up on that honestly but if the markets continue to correct then maybe you will see that correction into December it doesn't have to be a lower low of course uh it could just be a higher low but maybe maybe it will eventually play out uh after all so let's just think about this historically eth Bitcoin bottoms out in either December or January it's already December 19th my guess eth stays week against Bitcoin probably for
the rest of the year it doesn't mean you can't have a green week but it probably is going to stay weak for the the rest of the year maybe early January and then by you know I would expect it to start eth Bitcoin to start moving up in 2025 I would regardless of the direction of Bitcoin USD so no matter what way Bitcoin USD goes I think that eth will go up against Bitcoin obviously ethusd will be dependent on what Bitcoin USD does but those are my thoughts on eth bitcoin and if you look here
at the eth Bitcoin valuation and look at it in 2024 it's actually following 2023 quite quite closely in fact also 2019 fairly closely if you go look at at monthly returns right if you look at monthly returns of eth Bitcoin you can see that it's mostly just been red in fact why don't we just look at quarterly returns of of eth Bitcoin look at this I mean 2022 q1 and Q2 were red then you had Q3 Q4 were green the only other quarter that eth Bitcoin has been green besides the second half of 2022 for
the last three years with Q2 2024 literally every other quarter has been red right this is what I was hoping to save people from but what do you notice about 2021 eth Bitcoin was green what do you notice about 2017 at least eth Bitcoin was Green in the first half okay it was red in the second half but then it was you know Green in 2018 as well so I would argue as quarterly returns go you're probably going to see more green for eth Bitcoin in 2025 and maybe even early 2026 and less red this
is the way the cycle works this is the way the cycle is always worked and my guess is that eth Bitcoin will start to find strength in q1 of 2025 that is my guess I could be wrong we'll see thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give it video a thumbs up again check out sale on inth cryptoverse premium at inth cryptoverse ..com and I'll see you guys next time bye
