Bitcoin and The Labor Market

hey everyone and thanks for jumpping back into the macroverse today we're going to talk about the labor market and of course the implications for Bitcoin if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptus premium add into Toth cryptoverse we do this video about once a month just when the labor market data comes out this time I it was delayed by a week so my apologies for getting it out to you guys late but better late than never um I guess the urgency wasn't really there considering that not a whole lot has changed in terms of the labor market over the last few months but just for completeness we will go through the charts once again the unemployment rate did increase slightly back to 4. 2% um so it you know it really hasn't changed a whole lot over the last say four or five months it it went from 4. 3 down to 4.

1 stayed at 41 then back up to 42 so it's kind of in that in between Zone where you know ideally ideally the unemployment rate does not continue to go up Beyond 4. 3 right that would be sort of the ideal scenario and and that hopefully the FED has pivoted in time to avoid a continued uptrend in the unemployment rate right that would be the ideal scenario with it going back up to 4. 2 it does call that into question in fact I believe we were only maybe about 7,000 jobs away from this being rounded to 4.

3% so it's just going to kick the can down the road again and we'll see where it comes in next month but hopefully hopefully we'll see it sort of uh level out if you apply a moving average to it like a 3-month moving average you can kind of see that it it it's done this thing so far you know where it moves up for a while and then it sort of cools off for a little bit right last year it started moving up in April and then it started cooling off in Q4 and then you can see here in 2024 it started moving up again and then it's again cooling off around that Q4 time frame so I guess the question is well is it going to start accelerating again once we get out into 2025 now you could look at this chart and say Well when the unemployment rate goes up you typically get a recession but one of the things that's been different so far about the unemployment rate this cycle is that the unemployment rate while it has gone up it it's been more of a controlled move up right it hasn't been a a parabolic rise like what we've seen in Prior recessions where for instance the unemployment rate went from 39 to 4 to 41 to 42 you know to 43 and then just kept on climbing basically month after month after month now a few months ago a few months ago ago when we saw that briefly right we saw that briefly we went 38 39 4 41 and then 43 that was when Bitcoin started to get a little concerned right this right here these lower highs occurred while the unemployment rate was going up in a fairly steady fashion like that right so if you just look to see where that uptrend and the unemployment rate occurred was right there and during that uptrend in the unemployment rate that's exactly when Bitcoin started to put in you know that that lower high structure but after the unemployment rate came back down Bitcoin used that opportunity to just shoot back up now one of the things I've said before and I I stand by this is that Bitcoin does not need a reason to go up right just like the S&P doesn't need a reason to go up the markets just Trend up you know it's more or less what the market what the markets are are essentially designed to do um you know when you have inflation when you have money printing that money has to find a home somewhere and it's going to go to you know to the assets that people want to you know want to invest in right and and so risk assets at least the blue chips among them don't need a reason to go up they need a reason to go down and you can see that there's two main reasons that that Bitcoin can well there's three but the there's two that we can actually somewhat study the third one's not really something that is is something we can study per se the the first one of course is if the unemployment rate starts to go up right if that starts to move up quickly then that can cause Bitcoin to struggle okay the other is when inflation goes up and by the way this isn't just Bitcoin this is the S&P as well right when inflation goes up quickly that causes Bitcoin to go down and the third thing of course is just like you know black swans or geopolitical events that no one really has any business trying to predict because they're essentially impossible to predict anyway so why worry about those sorts of things now here you can see that the minute the unemployment rate started to go down right the minute it started to go down Bitcoin bottomed out and then immediately shot up so this is sort of proof that Bitcoin does not need a reason to go up but when the labor market gives it a reason to go down it will listen now we haven't seen that yet right and we we just got one move up um and it's not clear if that's going to be a sustained Trend or not so it could simply you know do something like this where it it doesn't make a move up right it might do something like that if the unemployment rate continues to go up right like that then you could see you know sort of something like that repeat itself potentially in uh 2025 so I would I I would certainly keep an eye on that but again it's one of those things where as long as the unemployment rate is is sort of below the Cycles High 4. 3% then Bitcoin will likely not be too concerned about it so that's the unemployment rate if you go look at the unemployment level uh you know it came in at at 7. 14 million so it did you know it is starting to move back up here again that is a little concerning but it it doesn't necessarily mean that it has to continue its Ascent again you could argue that one of the reasons why risk assets have done so well despite the unemployment level increasing is you can see the clear difference between this move and then these sort of these parabolic moves right the parabolic moves in the unemployment level is sort of like once it's beyond the control to sort of reain in in the short term right as long as it's sort of a controlled move then the market really will not pay too close attention to it now this is one of the real reasons why um things have have sort of just slow you know the the markets will look at the labor market but as long as it's not going up too quickly and this is what you should look at right look at Job losers you see this you see it's it's been going up right it's been going up since 2022 but it's been a fairly steady climb it doesn't look like what you got in recessions where the unemployment rate just accelerated right you see the difference if you apply a moving average to it you might be able to see what I'm talking about right like the angle of attack here is different than the angle of attack here if any of you guys are aerospace engineers or mechanical engineers you've probably heard of that terminology before right the angle of attack and so that I think is arguably what the market is looking at and if you look at at at new entrance to the labor force that's arguably where a lot of the unemployment level is coming from right I mean if you look at new entrance to the labor force that's what really looks concerning right that if if I were to look for like one big thing in this labor market that seems concerning it would be this chart right and again this is new entrance to the labor force so you know maybe people out of high school people out of college but if you think about the the people with the most amount of money that are going to move risk assets are not the people typically that are newly entering the labor market right they're the people that have been in the labor market for a long time and they have money to spend okay so the new entrance to the labor market potentially don't influence the market nearly as much um but you can see that this has been moving up somewhat parabolically and I think one of the reasons for this one of the reasons that new entrance to the labor force are struggling to find a job is because hires are down right if you go look at at highers which what we were going to come to later anyways but if you look at highers highers have been dropping since 2022 right I mean you can see they topped out here I guess there was a spike back over here but they really topped out in February 2022 one month before the FED started to cut and they've been trending down ever since um so the reason why new entrance to the labor force are having a hard time finding a job is because people aren't really hiring nearly as much as they used to in fact the last time that highers were this low other than just a few months ago would have been all the way back in 2017 right so hiring is C except for the pandemic right so hiring is is certainly down but just because hiring is down doesn't mean layoffs are up cuz if you go look at layoffs and discharges it hasn't been that bad as as you know despite what you see and what you hear it really hasn't been that bad in fact layoffs and discharges are actually still below let's maybe let's add a um let's add a a moving average here maybe a 3mon moving average they're actually still below you know what we saw for the better part of a decade right so yes I mean layoffs have increased some but the point was this was all sort of excess like a region we don't normally find oursel in so a lot of the excess in the labor market has gotten trimmed off especially in the tech sector and we've Now sort of just started to get back to what is normal okay we've just started to get back to what is normal now let's go back to what we were talking about so we have the unemployment level we which we just talked about and you can even sort of isolate this into say 16 to 19 year olds and see that that has really been moving up younger people even 20 to 24 year olds uh not it doesn't look as bad so it's really the younger people 16 to 19 year olds the unemployment rates really moving up but if you look at 25 to 54 year olds I mean it's moving up but it doesn't look nearly as bad as it does for say the 16 to 19 year olds and then if you look at people over the age of 55 yes it's been going up but it's still been a relatively slow um angle attack right or a slow a slow pace higher so going back to the unemployment level by reason for unemployment um we obviously looked at new entrance to the labor force that has been one of the more concerning ones reentrance to labor force has been going out but doesn't look quite as bad as new entrance to labor force if you look at people leaving their job not really a lot of signal there if I'm being completely honest um let's look at persons who completed temporary jobs slowly going up but again it doesn't look quite like what you saw back over here at least not yet right that doesn't mean it can't happen now permanent job losers starting to move up right if you look at a year-over-year change it's been positive for a while but this might be one of the best ways to sort of show you why this so far has been a lot different from prior recessions because it's been a more could controlled move up right you know in terms of year-over-year percentage change it's just been around you know 10 to 20% whereas in the financial crisis it went all the way up to 177% and in the recession it went up to 150% so you probably can see the difference right you can probably see what I'm talking about and and how it looks different from those those prior recessions even the uh the pandemic recession right you can see how the year-over-year change shot up a lot but we just simply haven't seen that yet and so because you know there's been this sort of loosening in the labor market it obviously causes people to worry and then risk ass outs just as always they climb the wall of worry until they have a sufficient reason not to do so and until the labor market really starts to show weakness then you know risk assets will likely continue to do that so if you go look at the unemployment rate per state I I tend to just go through a few we always check in with Alabama because it is is uh alphabetically it is first so we'll go see what Alabama's doing unemployment rate at 2.

9% so not really that bad uh let's go check in with California it actually dropped a little bit over the last couple of months and it started to go back up again you can see here it dropped in early 2024 it's starting to go back up once again unemployment rate in California is up to 5. 4% uh I'd like to check in with Colorado actually because it it's been steadily going up but you see you know you see how it looks kind of different than these moves where it just acceler up a lot quicker it's been more of a slower move up sorry I didn't mean to click on that um Florida unemployment rated in Florida has been flat at 3. 3% for a little while uh the District of Colombia it's been moving up somewhat aggressively it steadied out a little bit last couple of months let's go check in with Georgia that one had been relatively flat for a long time it started moving up in April from 31 all the way up to 36 it's been stalled sort of about 36 for a little while I always like to check in with New York and Texas New York's unemployment rate still relatively low all things considered I mean at 4.

4% um it's still you know lower than it has been for most of its history Texas still relatively low at 4. 1% and then let's check in with um Wisconsin again this is one of those states where it's relatively low right only 2. 9% okay so some of the states look a little weaker some of them look a little stronger so if you go to the number of states where the unemployment rate is rising over the last month you can see you know there's been sort of these these surges and you know this was in September 2022 this was in September 2023 this was in August 2024 this was September 2024 so you can see that you know I mean it it's it's moving up a little bit here into October but it it's actually essentially you know this is at 22 October 2024 in October 2023 it was at 24 and October of 2022 it was at 18 so you know it there has been some softening but we haven't seen you know we haven't really seen these Peaks go up and stay higher just yet right they all just sort of beat they're all relatively shortlived now you could look at over three months and over 6 months probably 6 months is the way to look is the way to look at it so if you look at it over 6 months you can see that was a a an uptrend in the number of states with a rising unemployment rate in 2022 and then another uptrend in in 2023 and then we've arguably had another uptrend in 2024 although that it was a higher low but it hasn't put in a higher high just yeah now we can look at a map right so if you're you know if you're living in one of the states and you're just curious you know how does it look in in your state uh let me go ahead and reload this see if I can get this to load um now you can see these these are the states where the unemployment rate went went up over the last month here is over the last 3 months and here is over the last 6 months and if you play this through you know starting in 1976 and you look see these these areas down here these are prior recessions when you get to those recessions you'll basically see the entire country have an unemployment rate in these states that are higher than they were six months ago right so that was the 1980 1981 recession that you just saw um there's been some scares like in the mid 19 80s but you never really saw the entire country uh see that rise in unemployment rate now we're starting to get into the 90s where there was a recession right there you see how it affected most of the country and then throughout the 1990s it's relatively clean maybe there was something in 1995 1996 but again it didn't affect the whole country um I I believe there was an unal curve back then too very briefly and there you saw 1998 1999 a little worry and then the recession actually hit in 2001 right where it was the whole country and then now you get out into 2002 as the recession finally ended um and then now in a few seconds we're going to get to the financial crisis where you can see the whole country was in fact affected that was the financial crisis and then now you get out into the 2010s where it's relatively okay there's a few moments here and there where you'll see the unemployment rate rise in some of the states um but for the most part it it was relatively okay there was a scare in 2016 I remember um and then obviously we're we're approaching the pandemic here relative ly soon that was 2018 now this is the pandemic and then now this is 2021 here's 2022 you're seeing a little weakness 2023 some weakness and now we're in 2024 so there's weakness there but the thing is is like you're still not seeing it affect the entire country it's getting close and you have to remember the labor market as it weakens it's sort of like a disease it can affect you know certain States and then it'll expand outward so I mean again like it it is affecting a lot of the states right now but there's still Pockets where things are okay right and even the states where the unemployment rate is going up it's not nearly as high as it was in some of those prior recessions so here we have alternative unemployment rate measures this is the U U1 which means greater than 15 weeks unemployed that one is starting to move up again um so I would certainly want to watch that when it's basically risen from 1.

1% in 2023 to 1. 7% % uh now and I mean you can see that it it actually is starting to move up some people not in the labor force I don't really care that much about this indicator but I'm throwing it on there just in case you guys are interested employment statistics labor force participation rate I'm not that interested in this one but I'm just throwing it up there for completeness um civilian Force labor a civilian Labor Force Level uh just for completeness in case you want to look at it it is starting to drop here um but you know I don't I don't really have a strong opinion on this employment level so this is an interesting one so this is the establishment survey versus the household survey so the establishment survey if you were to look at a year-over-year percentage change still looks relatively okay right I mean it's at 1. 45% if you were to go look at when the financial crisis recession started it it it started when the year-over-year change here about hit went below 1% okay if you go look at the dot recession the recession started when it went below 1% as well so right now it's at 1.

45% but keep in mind it's basically been in the 1% range um since October of 2023 right it's been just slowly going down okay so there's no telling how long it will it will actually take before it goes below one now one of the things that's been interesting this cycle is that there's been a Divergence between the establishment survey and the household survey if you look at the household survey you can see that it's actually really started to Plateau here and if you look at a year-over-year percentage change it has in fact gone negative right and historically when it goes negative it's not a good thing right it it really hasn't been historically but there are some exceptions for instance right here you can see that it went negative in March of 1952 but the recession didn't occur until July of 1953 right so it was still a year away um in in that case so it's again you really have to see the weakness sort of persist throughout the entire country for it to really um make a difference now one of the things I'd like to do and I've talked about this before we have a workbench over here and what we can do is we can look at um if I can find it I think I I think I did this before employment surveys right so these are the two employment surveys okay and um let me so these are the two employment surveys right so you can see that one the household survey has leveled off and it's starting to go down a little bit The Establishment survey is still going up okay now historically they tend to move together right they tend to move together so this is somewhat of an anomaly if you take if you look at the division of these two right you can see that it's at a new low right it's on a new low but what I'd really like to do is not divide them I would like to take the average okay so if we take the average of these two you get that now let's hide everything else and why don't we use the average to tell us what's going on right so rather than project our own bias right rather than say oh it has to be the establishment survey that's right or oh it has to be the household survey that's right if we wait them the same and take the average maybe that's a better way to do it and in this case you can see that it is slowing down but you haven't necessarily seen that entire Plateau yet right the plateau is where things become concerning okay now and I'm not saying we're not entering it now it's possible but remember this takes place over years that's I think one of the biggest disconnects between you know sort of macroanalysis like this and and people want to know what's happening in the market ISS guys this stuff takes years to play out and a lot of people wanted to play out over the span of a few weeks that's just not going to happen so you know these these business Cycles just absolutely take years and you can see when they start to level off it can still take a while before you you actually see that drop um remember I mean just looking at this chart you're you're looking at a chart that goes back to 1948 so you're talking about essentially 80 years years of data on this chart and you get frustrated if it doesn't play out by next Tuesday right that's your problem not mine okay this is the the way the business cycle works um so let's continue on here's non-farm private payrolls employment level this one still looks relatively okay in terms of a year-over-year percentage change it's still about 1. 4% uh total temporary Help Services has just been dropping ever since 2022 the year-over a-year percentage change though looks different from the fin fincial crisis in theom recessions where it really went parabolic and this dropped year of year by about - 20%-30% almost so far this cycle the lowest it's been is about Nega 8% so you can see the sort of difference between this drop and the drops we saw over here and it could be due to the rise over here was a lot higher I mean it went all the way up to almost 43% so a lot of this is just kind of getting rid of some of the excess right multiple job holders has been trending higher which you know not really uh something you you know I mean obviously it's not really the best thing in the world if a lot of people have to work multiple jobs but job postings on indeed uh has continued to slowly go down hopefully it's leveling out here a little bit if you look at a year-over-year percentage change you know it's been negative for a while you know negative 10 to 20% or so um for for quite a long period of time you can even this is total you can even break it down by category you could look at listings and I don't you know I mean there's been some drops before uh you can see here there was a pretty big drop in November into you know early December and you're kind of seeing a big drop here by by new listings and this kind of goes back to what we were talking about earlier right new graduates like new graduates are having a hard time finding a job because hires are down and one of the reasons hires are down is because there's some uncertainty as to what's going to happen and also you know it could I mean obviously job openings are down um and it could just be that you know a lot of companies are waiting for looser and looser monetary to monetary policy to come in before they really start to expand and we are getting rate Cuts so there is going to be some effect but again it's a delayed effect can look at uh Banking and finance job openings on indeed it's actually below the pre-pandemic level but it's just been trending there for a little while um we could look at Insurance uh that's actually been going up recently job postings on on indeed um electrical engineering Physicians and surgeons well above the prepandemic levels well above all right here's the employment to population ratio if you look at a year-over year percentage change year-over-year change it is in fact now negative job openings so let's go take a look at job openings it's been on a downtrend for a while right but again this is just getting rid of a lot of the excess that was created after all the money printing during the pandemic and but you can see that job openings have essentially returned to their pre-pandemic highs okay job openings topped in March of 2022 when the FED started to cut so hopefully they bottomed in September when the fed or sorry when the FED started to raise rates in March 2022 that was when the FED started to raise rates now they've put in a bottom in September 2024 when the FED started to cut rates let's just see if that actually is the bottom or if it continues to go lower the job quits let's just go look at the job quits rate it actually went up recently which is a good thing I mean it's a good thing if people are willing to quit their jobs it implies they're able to find new jobs or they have you know a reason to quit and they don't feel like they need to keep their job obviously you know you don't really want to see this go down when you see it go down it just means people are not as optimistic about finding a new job therefore they're unwilling to quit their current job so we'll see if this recent move up and the job quits rate is is a more durable Trend or if it's just another Spike you know we've seen some spikes before then then just came right back down the following month uh layoffs and discharges as I mentioned earlier still relatively low initial claims is what you really should look at I think initial claims I've mentioned before until it gets into the 300K range it's really not recessionary right now it's a 242,000 a little bit of an uptick this last month um you know if you go back and look at what happened in in December of 200 uh 2023 so December 2023 you can see it wasn't really getting that that same Spike so I I'm curious as to as to what's happening there because last year you know if you apply say like a 3-we moving average last year it got I mean it did get a little bit of a move up here into November and then it went down into the beginning of the year here it's starting to move up um at a time where last year it didn't so maybe let's go look at the year before is just see if maybe last year was an anomaly if you go look at December of uh 2023 or sorry 2022 you because it was a little spike in November and then in December it it sort of leveled out at around 212,000 and then it came back down so let's keep an eye on initial claims if that continues to go up it could be concerning but again I don't think it's that concerning until it hits 300K okay once you see it print 300K it's probably something to start paying a little bit more attention too this is initial claims per state obviously it's not really that exciting but I'd like to look at the initial claims normalized by population obviously it's getting a um you know up up in here it's uh it's getting a little high but it it tends to do this at the end of the year right if you look at like December 2023 it looked like that December 2022 looked like that so it might be getting a little spreading a little bit but it still isn't really the same down over here in in the South uh you could look at continue claim s continue claims are still you know they're slowly trending up if you look at like a seven we moving average but still not what you not what you've seen during prior recessions uh here's the continued claims map normalized by population in case you're curious what it looks like and here is the number of states where the percentage year of a year continued claim claims is Rising by at least say 10% um there was a spike in December uh or sorry late 2023 but recently it's it's it's trended down a good deal since then so we'll keep an eye on that as well highers as I mentioned previously it's dropped a considerable amount we could look at a few of these labor indices here's the Kansas City fed labor market conditions index continues to drop but still above zero okay it's currently at 0419 uh here's the Kansas City fed labor market conditions index the momentum indicator and then you can also go look at at some of these um what I want to look at the uh some of these other things so you have the smooth recession probabilities so as of December the probability that United States was in a recession is only 1. 48% so still relatively low uh or sorry that's as of so we was updated in December but it's for October so the probability that the US was in a recession in October of 2024 is only 1.

48% okay so still a relatively low number um the Som Ru recession indicator it did trigger a couple months ago now it's kind of untriggered again um so that's a good thing here's the Som rule recession indicator per state right so you can see some states it triggered and then it untriggered here's the number of states where the Som Ru triggered it had a move higher up to around 21 all the way up to 22 it's dropped back down to 15 and then recently it went back up to 17 as of October here's a map of the states where the Su rule has triggered so it's kind of like this band across the middle of the United States where it seems like a lot of it has in fact triggered and if you go back to sort of last year at this time it looks like that now it looks like this so again what do recessions look like they look like that like like this you know here's the 1990s right where it's like the whole country practically right now it's it's parts of the country and that might explain why sentiment is so you know um different right A lot of people they they feel like things are bad and other people like what are you talking about things are great maybe it's because where they are things are bad but where the other person is things are great right I mean you don't always have to have the same conditions in every state or even in any every city within a state it can vary a lot uh if you look at the the real GDP recession indicator it's still relatively low the composite leading indicator looks relatively okay I mean it's still trending up it looked like it was starting to Peak here in mid 2024 and then it just started to accelerate once again um The National Financial conditions index still dropping uh here's here's one of the interesting ones the coincident economic activity index uh I've looked at this one a good amount the year-over-year percentage change on this is 2. 55% when the financial crisis recession started this indicator was below 2% when the recession started it was when this indicator was at 2. 2 right now it's at 2.

5 during the 1990s when it triggered it was when this one hit 2. 6 so you know it is getting into you know some interesting territory but that doesn't mean it immediately has to accelerate down but it certainly one to keep an eye on here's also the economic policy uncertainty index it did get a bit of a spike going into the it came back down and now it's starting to go back up a little bit so that's kind of an interesting one to keep a look at keep you know keep an eye on as well I think that's it oh there's one more uh job openings per unemployment level right it's basically a little below the pre-pandemic LI uh the the pre- pandemic level um this is essentially the number of job openings per unemployed worker right so it's still technically above one right 1 Point the most recent reading is 1. 11 so technically according to this there's 1.

11 job openings for every person looking for a job whether you want to believe that or not it's up to you right and I don't need a thousand comments telling me why are you trusting the data guys this is what the FED uses and this is what the FED uses to decide what their policy is going to be so whether you believe it or not this is what's used to to make these you know sort of determinations as to what the fed's actually going to do speaking of what the fed's actually going to do we go take a look there is almost a 97% chance they're going to cut rates in December to get us to 4 and a half% um and it looks like there's a pretty good chance by January they're going to just keep rates at that level okay so let's see what they do normally within about a week or so the markets PR locked in on what the actual outcome's going to be something drastic I imagine would have to happen for them not to cut at this point or if they just throw us a complete curveball I've seen a lot of people say well if if all these meme coins are pumping why do they need to cut rates but again mem coins pumping you know that's you know they're not make they're not basing their policy on that right I mean that that stuff is going to do what it's going to do and there's excess liquidity I think you have to consider they're looking at the labor market where they see certain things like they see that the unemployment rate is trending higher and they want to make sure it doesn't continue to Trend higher so uh they will likely cut rates what's interesting is that this meeting is actually on December 18th but I believe you know there there's a there's a more important meeting that day and that's the bank of Japan um because the bank of Japan is arguably going to do the opposite of the FED not necessarily in December um but if you go look at the um at Japan interest rates so let me see if I can get Japan interest rates onto this chart so yeah if you look at Japan interest rates they've been raising rates because inflation is starting to become you know something they're concerned about um so they're raising rates while the uh the FED is lowering rates and the reason I bring this up is because the last two times the bank of Japan raised rates there was a correction in the crypto markets right so the the the bank of Japan raise rates in in in March let's switch this over to a monthly so we can tell a little bit easier right they rais rates in March and then obviously Bitcoin we saw a correction in April and they rais rates in July and then we got the the correction in August so you know I I think the markets right now are assuming are suggesting there's only a 30% chance the bank of Japan's going to raise rates and um and December so if they don't raise rates that would be a good thing for risk assets if they do raise rates that would probably be a bad thing but right now the markets are saying a 30% chance they raise rates meaning there's like a 70% chance they don't raise rates regardless if the if they don't raise rates in December there's a really high chance they'll raise rates in January now the reason I mentioned that is because often times Bitcoin actually does get Corrections in January of post having years right if you look at January of 2021 Bitcoin got a correction to the tune of 31% if you look at January of 2017 Bitcoin got a or sorry that was yeah 2017 Bitcoin got almost a 40% correction but again that doesn't mean that it has to correct to a lower price than it is now um you know if if we're if we're here if that's where we are right now even if there is a correction it might just be to a higher low than we are today um even if November of of 2016 right it did go up and then we got a correction but it wasn't to a lower level so that's something to consider so I would say if the bank of Japan raises rates in December then it might be a headwind for risk asset but remember even when they raise rates in in April and July or sorry in March and July the actual correction by risk assets didn't come until the following month right they didn't come until the following month um so even if they were to raise rates in December the market might not feel that effect until January okay so just keep that in mind um for now obviously the next unemployment rate readings are not going to be for a few more weeks so Bitcoin is is certainly trying to put a new all-time highs once again last cycle the big move came the week of December 14th which would essentially be next week um if you look at 2016 when you can see that there was a big move the week of December 19th which would again be like you know next week or the week after okay so it's interesting how there's this seasonality that continues to play out and how you can even correlate these macro events to Corrections in the cryptoverse but again you know there's always going to be something to worry about markets like to climb the wall of worry um and that's what they're going to do more than likely until the labor market gives them a reason not to do so so I would I would really look at initial claims look to see where they come each week as long as they're below 300K it's not that concerning um and we'll see you know hopefully the unemployment rate can stay low and and not continue to go up right now it's at 4. 2% we'll see where it comes in next month if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and again check out uh the sale on into the crypts premium at intothe crypto. com you can of course get access to all these charts we also actually have a a macro recession risk dashboard and the only one that's sort of screaming that there's something coming is the interest rate risk but it always screams at early right if you look at if you expand this out it always is the first to to scream recession the interest rate risk right and then eventually you get it right eventually you get it when when when this starts to fall that's probably the time to to be concerned and even there are times where it falls and it's not even the the drop right so I would watch this one to see like you know what it what it's going to do here um but if you go back I mean if you go back to the macro recession risk dashboard you know production and business risk still relatively low right national income and product risk still low employment risk still relatively low it's a little bit more elevated than the other ones um and if you sort of expand it you look at it it just looks like this where there you know there's some scares in here but you haven't really seen the labor market weaken to the point of of Prior recessions just yet and you know I'll probably do a video on this later on but uh the yield curve the yield curve is in fact um uninverted going through the uninversity kind of like as we speak but we'll we'll touch on that in another video um and remember I mean even even if it does fully un invert it can still be some time before the markets are are willing to pay attention and sometimes it's taking even a year but anyways guys we'll go and wrap it up thank you for tuning in subscribe give the video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at in cryptoverse .

.