[Music] as the Ukrainian counter-offensive has got underway tensions and dysfunction have emerged among the Russians directing the war now that Ukraine is bringing the fight to the Russians what impact will it have on a leadership in Moscow that's already feeling the pressure the infighting has actually started and it's only going to intensify [Music] inside Russia the government is Keen to project a sense of business as usual even as the war starts to hit home Russian Capital getting a first-hand sense of war after an alleged drone attack here they're trying to ignore the Ukrainian counter-offensive unfolding
hundreds of miles away but within Russia's Elites cracks are starting to appear increasingly I think the talk and this is what I'm getting from whatever sources I um still in communication with on the ground in the Russian Elite that they are definitely losing haven't already lost confidence that this war is winnable or that any of the aims even though Putin has actually never properly explained to the country what is it that he's trying to to achieve that this was a good idea and those aims however vague they are can be achieved that Russia is on
on the March I mean the fact that it's Ukraine that's on the offensive is shaping the mood I think that realization is uh sinking in uh amongst the elite both the technocratic elite but also of the more militant uh part uh you know the precaution the Wagner groups they're the reticles is the leader of the Wagner group a private military organization whose brutal mercenaries have been called on by Putin to bolster Russia's severely depleted forces but the collaboration between precautions militia and the Russian military establishment appears to be unraveling the infighting uh is I think
has has actually started and it's only going to intensify and he is turning on the on the army foreign Chiefs are very important because he is basically blaming them for being lukewarm he's blaming Russian Elite for not doing enough and basically saying this is not the way uh to fight an all-out War which which he wants to see I think that sense of the objectives of this War uh were unclear from the very beginning and there's certainly unwinnable as in Russia is not going to get to Keith is really sinking in and and pregosian and
as the elites and precaution is part of that Elite are starting to prepare for the moment where they will have to concede some losses of territory what progression has basically been channeling from the beginning is that Russia needs full mobilization it needs to bring martial law needs to call this a war not a special military operation my son says there is a real uh intensifying of different factions around Kremlin and it's uh fighting with each other and this is out of the ordinary I mean Putin has always ruled through saying conflict between his cronies but
he doesn't like this being you know spinning into the open into the public space and this is what has happened and that actually undermines the sense of the elite as well that things are going according to plan because a precaution is allowed to attack and accuse the minister of defense and the command of the Russian forces of treason it's now getting to the level where the question is is Putin really in control of his own man depending on what Ukraine achieves will or will not intensify a political process in Russia so in that sense what
happens inside Russia politically will be determined by the success of this counter offensive the battlefield continues to shape politics in a way that we haven't seen since the Second World War if Ukraine is successful I think the infighting in Russia will intensify I think Putin's Position will start shifting if Ukraine is not successful however and it does get stuck you know trading a bit of territory uh I think Putin will come out stronger politically and that will allow him possibly to conduct another wave of mobilization I think he can only do immobilization successfully at this
stage if he can show some success on the battlefield in the face of losing territory and be and suffering uh defeats I think that mobilizing people uh and the elites will actually get a lot harder and we could see more unraveling and More infighting in Russia which is exactly in a way what Ukraine and the West want to achieve thank you for watching and if you'd like to read more of our coverage on Ukraine and the war please click on the link
