there is an undeclared war in the sahil involving not just locals but Russia France China and the United States right in the thick of it is Wagner a private military company with ties to the Kremlin The Mercenaries have set up shops in Mali Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic they're aiding Rebel forces in Chad and Sudan while in Libya their curbing oil exports to Europe still more in Ivory Coast Wagner has set up a base for informational Warfare propagating this information across the continent the result French flags are burned while Russian flags are hoisted
Wagner is estimated to have around 5 000 troops across Africa and its contractors control strategic sites and mineral deposits while denying those same resources to geopolitical Rivals Wagner is laying down strong roots so much so that it even considered creating a conference duration of African States stretching from Guinea to Eritrea China meanwhile is taking note and looking to join the winning team so that it can continue to do business but Wagner's CEO evgeny pregozian has even bigger plans he's using the PMC as a springboard to score points with Vladimir Putin but while pregosian climbs the
political hierarchy incompatible interests ingrained proxy conflicts subversion and brinkmanship in this type of game everyone is replaceable skillful maneuvering and compromises thus the order of business because politics is not the pursuit of perfection but the art of the second best thank you [Music] it feels a world away but Africa's future will decide the faith of the global economy the massive continent holds a shocking one-third of the world's wealth in minerals vital components in essential products made by the biggest technology companies in the world these same companies are the only thing keeping the S P 500
from plunging into the red a reversal that erased 500 billion dollars last time it occurred wiping out the retirement and saving accounts of Everyday People however now we can prepare just like CEOs and billionaires who are currently moving huge sums into the markets shielded from this turmoil like Fine Art a market surpassing even its pre-pandemic levels now I've used Masterworks to get my piece off the Art Market for over a year and their results have only gotten better with time 13 exits to date each returning a profit with recent net returns of 10 13 and
even 35 percent Masterworks has a wait list as paintings can sell out in minutes but I've been a partner and investor for so long you'll get Priority Access right now at the link below south of the Sahara is a stretch of land known as the sahil it spans from Senegal to Eritrea and is home to 100 million people the dozen states constituting the sahil are plagued by political instability economic crises military coups separatist conflicts and jihadism crucially Most sahil states are former French colonies and thus remain subject to French influence by other means in 2013
France led a 15 000 strong multilateral intervention in Mali contributing 5 000 troops itself the goal was to stabilize Mali and counteract ethnic turak Rebels and jihadists less loudly though the operations sought to secure access to uranium deposits and neighboring Niger crucial for France's energy needs But as time were on France's presence irked the locals macron who promised to pursue African relations on equal footing could not shake off France's Imperial baggage and with thousands of deaths 350 000 displaced and three military coups France's intervention was anything but a Triumph sensing weakness asimi goiter took power
in the country in 2021 initially pro-western goita switched sides once in office the result was the expulsion of French forces from Mali enter Wagner since 2017 Russian private military contractors have drummed up anti-french sentiment to present Russia as an anti-imperial alternative and even though these claims don't hold any water they have gained some footing because so far as Africa is concerned Russia lacks the colonial stigma attached to France yet Wagner is a very much profit-based Enterprise its CEO yevgeny pregozian has an unconventional background in organized crime but Wagner's connection to the criminal underworld also runs
down the chain of command up to four-fifths of its Personnel are drawn from Russian prisons with many closely tied to Russian far right in Africa pregosian's objectives go beyond just finances the primary goal is to gain political Capital at the Kremlin by disrupting Western interests in Africa Wagner does pursues Russian State interests but on an autonomous level which gives the Kremlin plausible deniability while making Wagner an indispensable component in Russian Politics on the ground Wagner provides site security information Warfare and private intelligence work this way of doing business goes hand in hand with African governments
looking for a no strings attached partnership some estimates place the number of Russian mercenaries at 5 000 troops just shy of America's six thousand not surprisingly policy makers in both Washington and Brussels are anxious when France withdrew from Mali Wagner filled the power vacuum today some 1400 Wagner contractors support the local government they provide aircraft and aerial Radars but also lawyers and geologists to facilitate resource extraction Wagner is then reimbursed by selling Malian gold via middlemen in Dubai this partnership between Mali and Wagner is holding firm even when the latter was accused of massacring 300
civilians in the town of Mara in March 2022 elsewhere in the sahil Wagner is giving the competition a run for their money in Burkina Faso Wagner contractors have acquired Mining rights and are closely associated with interim president Ibrahim tarore who came to power in a coup in 2022 by joining forces trarare and Wagner managed to expel French diplomats and media from the country meanwhile in Chad Wagner allied with fact Rebels trying to overthrow the federal government Chad is especially Troublesome because of its central location any conflict here will quickly spill over into the wider periphery
a leaked intelligence document from The Wall Street Journal shows that Wagner contemplated creating a confederation of African States stretching from Guinea to Eritrea with Chad as its base of operations stillmore in Sudan Wagner contractors oversee mining sites and smuggle untaxed gold abroad Wagner also has close ties to General hemeti and the outbreak of conflict in Sudan could open the country to further Russian influence to the Southwest in the Central African Republic Wagner has been involved in the Civil War since 2021 with the primary goal being to secure gold deposits and suppress local resistance but when
zooming out the big picture is revealed by controlling strategic sites and Mining deposits in Chad Sudan and the Central African Republic Wagner aims to create a corridor from the sahil onto the mineral trading Hub of Dubai if successful it would Grant Russia exclusive access to sahil resources but that's not the end of it further north in Libya Wagner has around 2 000 mercenaries spread across the country their goal is to undermine the the international recognized government in Tripoli which happens to be allied with turkey by undermining the turkish-backed Tripoli government Wagner looks to stifle oil
exports to Europe in the meantime in Ivory Coast Wagner Associated groups have set up a hub for informational Warfare they aim to propagate Russian misinformation across the continent and undermine French influence it's a soft power program with deadly proficient results French flags have been burnt in Mali chat Congo Etc while Russian statues are raised depicting Wagner mercenaries protecting women and children Wagner's anti-french sentiment is now also making inroads into the Democratic Republic of Congo the mother of all proxy conflicts pregosian's political climb seems to be paying off he landed an organized a role at the
most recent Russia Africa Summit while in Ukraine Wagner's performance gave pregosian the political weight to confront and discredit the Russian military command drunk on Victory pregosian is looking to establish himself as one of the top power Brokers of Russia along the way some elbow grease might be necessary but if he crosses a red line by directly going against Putin pregosian may meet an unnatural end the African Network he helped set up however will continue but not everything goes according to plan Wagner has seen plenty of blowback in recent years French troops have been redeployed to
Niger backed by German and American personnel and frankly they have to niger's uranium Powers 3 out of four French light bulbs France can't afford to lose Niger and will will do whatever it takes to keep the lights on Wagner has also proven itself ill-suited when combating more motivated opponents such as jihadists for instance in 2019 Mozambique hired Wagner to eliminate jihadist groups in exchange for oil and gas concessions but poor planning misplaced priorities and miscommunication resulted in the capture of the Russian mercenaries the Mozambique contract was terminated soon thereafter to blowback in Niger and Mozambique
shows that Wagner struggles when faced with better organized combatants there's a lesson here Europe is engaging Africa to secure hydrocarbon supplies and rare earth minerals local Powers small and large are rushing to create new corridors Nigeria which currently meets 14 of Europe's energy needs wants to become Europe's main gas supplier and there's plenty of room for growth since Nigeria Pony Island LNG terminal only operates at 60 capacity relatedly Algeria and Morocco are each trying to get an exclusive deal with Nigeria to establish energy routes going towards Europe Morocco for instance is pushing for an offshore
pipeline that runs across 13 African countries before plunging into Europe the project has a total length of 5600 kilometers but it may take up to 25 years to come online Algeria however argues for an alternative pipeline that goes over land passing the sahil and the Sahara altogether according to the algerians there are 4 100 kilometer project could be operational in just three years either way these geo-economic projects imply more extensive European commitments in Africa but the presence of Wagner in the vicinity poses a danger that cuts both ways Wagner could undermine the pipelines in West
and North Africa but not without exposing it itself to Collective retribution from Nigeria Morocco Algeria plus the European Union Norris Europe the only game in town China out trades the UK the US and France in the french-speaking part of Africa nowadays France only accounts for five percent of trade with its former African colonies down from 25 three decades ago even so China's investments in the sahil require military backing its base in Djibouti is too far away so in the coming years some arrangement could take shape where Wagner protects Chinese assets on the ground it would
be an arrangement that would mirror that Russia China Alliance taking form in Eurasia an alliance where Wagner is set to play a unique role for African nations meanwhile caught up in this inevitable Clash of global interests the best course of action will be to play all camps against one another while limiting the prospects for open conflict above all the key is to avoid hard commitments that cannot be wound back a society can maintain composure so long as things go according to plan even if the plan itself is terrifying I've been your host children from Caspian
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