Bitcoin WARNING The Crypto Market Is About To Get Complicated

in yesterday's video we were looking for a bounce somewhere around about $997,000 price per Bitcoin in today's video I want to give a nice little warning out there to the cryptocurrency world that things are likely to get very very complicated I do suspect in a way that they haven't really been um over the next few weeks here before we go to that however I do want to let you know that we do have our weekly Q&A session which will be tomorrow and of course if you want to contribute or join on in ask whatever [

__ ] questions that you might be wanting in your life however I might not always have the answer uh you can do so for free in the link in the description below for Discord and then all you need to do is just find your way over here to the weekly Q&A section that my cursor is currently on right now all right sweet let's pick up where we left off on yesterday's video yesterday's video we're looking for the current bitcoin bounce to travel at least a little bit higher somewhere between about $96,700 to $97,700 that means

I'm $100 off so wrong and should be killed and maimed but but um despite that uh you know it is looking like Bitcoin is uh indeed putting in its next lower high right around that region that we are looking at there are several things that do um further confirm the likelihood of a short-term top here we do see that the 4our RSI is going to be having uh hidden bearish Divergence between this current high right here and also the high from December 25th let me actually you mark this off with a with a uh with

a vertical bar and then even uh connected with the high way back back on over here from December 18th both of these were significantly higher than where Bitcoin is trading right now and so you know Bitcoin uh has a bit of an uphill battle here at least in the short term and the pullback is likely to bring things a little bit lower we'll talk about uh very obvious targets for this pullback in a second and then also what the correction kind of looks like just in general but on top of that we see that the

4H hour RSI also has a herp and derp the head and shoulders right there which again I put a lot more weight on formations that are actually in the RSI compared to spot price act or I mean just any price action really uh it doesn't need to be spot it could be futures um but in this case you know hid and bearish Ence plus that and of course if we go up to the six- hour time frame you got the same if we can load it we got the same hidden bearish diverence actually this one

is connecting all the dots as of right now awaiting full-on confirmation which will be had with any sort of a six-hour closure below about especially like 96 um and I believe it even goes all the way up to a 12h hour time frame here yeah we are seeing higher highs on the 12r RSI compared to those last prior highs as well or at least the one from December 25th so you know you are having or not you are you're probably just a person not actually Bitcoin or bitcoin's chart but bitcoin's chart is having a bit

of hidden Bear shance right there and very likely does carry on with a bit of a you know you know a bit of a pullback so where where is the obvious targets like extremely likely uh probabilistic targets for this pullback and then where do things start to take a bit of a different turn let's say well for this I would go over here to the Daily hpdr in the median is currently coming in right around about 95,3 or so I do suspect that Bitcoin will at some point today test around there the question is does

Bitcoin get a heroic Bounce from there if I'm going to have any sort of bull hopium that would be it I mean I guess Bitcoin just PPS down there and then you know rallies over the next couple days especially back above this last uh high and closes above there and at that point um you're going to hear me take on a different tone but until that happens uh I do think that that pullback is very likely to meet um somewhere around 955 let's say uh try for a bit of a short-term bounce but very likely

fail that short-term bounce thus confirming the next lower high for Bitcoin um compared to of course the December 25th 26th uh lower high right here it's like Santa rallied and then Santa [ __ ] dropped the red de on everyone's face I guess um anyways that then if okay so if that happens meaning that the bull hopium scenario which I think is actually you know a lot less likely to happen um you know gets confirmed not to happen uh which we went over that scenario a little bit earlier um you know where would the overall

corrective Target be for this current move to the downside well it's the same thing as what we looked at on yesterday's video and by the way you find this content valuable if you just want updates each and every day consider liking and subscribing because it does help that content get into your inbox your inboxes on the YouTubes um if that's uh if that's of your interest anyways um I wanted to pull back pull back uh I wanted to I wanted to come back to this same chart that we were looking at on yesterday's video the

interaction on CME between that red moving average and the yellow moving average the red is the five exponential the yellow is a 21 exponential and we have seen the five cross the downside the Red Cross uh cross under the yellow um as of uh well you know as of that that failure in essentially the I guess the Santa rally if you want to call it that um and anytime that we've seen the Red Cross below the yellow we've seen at minimum a correction down to at least minimum minimum um to that green moving average right

there which is a 55 exponential uh I can give you a few examples for this um I've actually gone ahead and back tested the whole history of CME and when you have this uh this this interplay where all major moving averages are technically in a bullish poshing and then you get the five Crossing below the 21 so that means that all of those need to be above the 55 you get at minimum a correction down to the 55 um in many cases as you can see you know the correction already happened right here but you

know that condition was fulfilled nonetheless there's been many instances on CME over the past well over the full history and um and to actually put numbers on it well there has been 18 prior occurrences all of those every single time every single time every single time has led to a correction down at minimum to the green 55 now that is currently coming in around 89,500 and of course there is a premium overs spot price action by about you know a th000 bucks so spot you know the equivalent area as of this moment would be you

know 88 or 885 somewhere around there um and again that's a minimum Target um where am I going with this uh yes so that would be the minimum Target and uh and Bitcoin very likely to come down around there now here's a thing with moving averages naturally with each and every passing daily closure you know this is going to move up so as of right now it's at 895 you know in a few days it'll be I guess 990,000 so it's very possible that we actually do see something like this where disregard the red coloring

I mean this as like the moving like projection for the moving average you know comes up somewhere around here and then at that point you know maybe price action does something like this comes down and fulfills that test to the 55 which I think you know if Bitcoin coming back down to the low 90s anyways would make a lot of people really consider uh you know Bitcoin likely to break significantly below 90,000 bucks um I guess you know at least that's what I see around social media seems like that's kind of you know one of

the main ideas going going around right now that bitcoin's going to play out a big massive move to the downside fill this Gap over here at around 78 to 80,000 bucks and uh and then maybe continue on with a rally possible I guess um but I'd still look at this as a little more likely first because in yesterday's video we went over the likelihood that Bitcoin is you know by the end of February Bitcoin is very likely to trade at least north of 110,000 bucks um at some point you know between now and that in

that date so while this corrective period you know can take many twists and turns and May maybe ends up looking something like this personally I don't want to be getting too bearish myself um of course you know if Bitcoin does break below 990,000 bucks uh maybe it does go well below the 55 and you see that move into the mid maybe even low $80,000 territory possible yes but I take one step before the next because this would be you know again a more obvious Target on top of that monthly time frame whoops damn it let

me just get over here there we go um monthly time frame again the red five exponential moving average which Bitcoin loves to reconnect with on any trending major move is currently at 86 a little little bit above 86,000 bucks so you know that gives us a nice buffer zone that obviously would be below the 55 which is fine you know again that's a minimum Target um but somewhere in that pocket there you know very very likely if Bitcoin is going to be bullish we really do expect a bounce off of this moving average right here

just as it has in all prior bull markets where price was trending to the upside any sort of test down to the 5 sorry not the 55 but the five the red moving average again um was essentially a low before trading significantly to the upside and you know same thing as this one as with the 55 you can see Wicks below there that's fine we just don't want to see closures below there so we really would be expecting like a decent Bounce from this region regardless of whether it trade's a little bit uh you know

under it or not if the bull market is still on so all this is all it's all like fractally related to each other obviously um so yeah anyways um let me just back onto my notes over here okay yes we got shortterm we got the bounce yes now very likely to pull back in the short term below 955 or 953 let's say uh this no longer looks like uh or at least in my opinion there's no more short-term hopium um and I think that this is again rather unlikely to play out regardless of that um

uh and Bitcoin you know likely does find its way back down around you know these lows over here maybe a little bit lower than that as well over the next maybe week or two you know can take some time again um other than that I did want to just briefly mention this so uh I've been updating this on Twitter which I've actually been a lot more active with recently it's actually pretty fun now Twitter um I've learned how to use Twitter the way to use Twitter is you you mute and block anyone who you just

don't want to see those [ __ ] things anymore because and you and you should like stuff that you do want to see and if you do that then your feed becomes significantly less toxic it's actually quite nice um anyways like why didn't I think of this before it seems so [ __ ] logical no the algorithms are designed to [ __ ] you up no it's designed to give you what you want and they only know what you want if you actually like what you want anyways back on to the topic of crypto markets

um we've been updating this chart on bitcoin dominance and again you know this is following the path um lower high was put in just almost exactly where L line is on a closing basis and uh well very likely to continue down here I suspect that you will see it back down below about 56% um maybe even sometime this month now here's the thing many alts don't look [ __ ] good many Al don't look [ __ ] good so how can how can that possibly be I believe it's the exact same thing that I've been

saying for quite some time now that seems to really get a lot of hate especially especially on Twitter to be fair as well which is uh you're not going to see an ALT an ALT quenn season like you've seen in you know in the past where just everything gets a free ride to new all-time highs and [ __ ] like that in fact that wasn't even the case in 2021 by the way I mean many things did not make new alltime highs um but uh but in this cycle you're going to see some absolutely [

__ ] massive winners that drag that whole uh part of the equation up or in this case this chart down and then the rest are going to you know they're going to get bounces they're probably going to get like deep decent percentage bounces but they're not going to reverse any macro Trends they're not going to be making any new all-time highs nothing like that um it really does seem to me that the market you know over the years has been shifting more into somewhat more you know this comparative statement uh quality stuff take that as

you will anyways that's just my idea right now um ultimately I do think that this chart uh has topped out and I do think that it moves a lot a lot lower but like I said I don't think it's going to be a blind alt season for everything I think you're going to see some massive winners that just absolutely [ __ ] crush it and then the rest not much not much um so yeah anyways good place for me to be leaving off on this video oh also I want to follow up on some meta

signals action over here uh we just got the stats in or I mean I'm just being given the stats here for December and for the whole month of December uh it does look like Target 1 did have a slightly lower probability than we've seen um during the preceding months it was a little bit closer to 70% before now for December which obviously did see significant downside action um well kind of uh just some more tumultuous action we did see the target one win rate go to about 62 a half% that is significant just still because

the target one um uh well the target one is typically an equal amount risk versus reward equal amount risk versus reward meaning that you know if you just played this out blindly you took full profit at at Target one it's going to be profitable um or generally it's going to be profitable uh over time of course but you know when I actually look at the losers that they that that uh that meta signals had for December most of them came over like a few days spread which was rather interesting um so you know you know

again I I do think that if you have even a little bit of technical knowhow you can probably figure out how to increase these odds even greater but even without that I mean you know it's giv you probabilistic setups uh that well if you're interested in will be of your interest that's a [ __ ] roundabout way of saying it you know it you know it gives you of course it gives you um that advanced notice anyways that's where I'll leave things off for today as always I want to wish everyone well um the best

of the best maybe as we get back into it right here and uh we'll see where this correction kind of takes us in the next 24 hours and I think that's going to be very revealing as to bitcoin's likely path so like I said as long as bitcoin's above 955 technically speaking there does exist the small but uh the small but present chance of hopium that Bitcoin could actually reclaim uh the current high from yesterday Thursday if you see that if you see Bitcoin close above there okay something else is going is going on I'm

Ma I'm probably going to be massively wrong if that happens until that happens though this looks like a great place for another lower high and that is what we leave things off for today wish you the best best as always take care much love and see you hopefully Saturday