Bitcoin Soaring to $195,000 in Q4 2025. Here's Why

Welcome back to the airic crown crypto Channel and we are once again joined here by legendary fibo Swani coming off of one of the most amazing calls I've ever seen in my life he was calling back on this channel this must have been uh you know in the middle of summer or maybe even the early portion of Summer um $18,000 price per Bitcoin uh this year and what do you know just a few days ago We have seen that absolutely epic Target happen and now Bitcoin crumbling as the sky does fall but we have fibo

Swan to bring back here and and he's going to be going over his more long-term look of course all Swan's socials will be L the link in the description below and from there I'm just going to hand it off to you and let's see what you got all right well Crown thanks for uh definitely having me on here this is awesome um the 108 the $108,000 call was uh back in May when we recorded um and I and I called it by the end of November so I missed it by two weeks two oh you're

wrong terrible I I quit I'm done no but um but but everything everything was going to plan so everything and and everything still is going to plan so um what I'm going to do is I'm going to highlight uh I'm gonna start out with some of these longer term time frames give you kind of that macro picture where I think things Are headed uh maybe a local top maybe the cycle top those kind of things now again this is not Financial advice this is just when you talk macro looks like this um it gets kind

of nuts when you start modeling it and stuff and and if you've done any type of modeling you know the further you get out into time the more risk there is right of course course so so so take this as a grain of salt but this is where this is what we're gonna Kind of look at here I'm gonna you get it you know what I'm talking about I totally get where you're coming from and I think just to relate it to the community here I think most people in this community also get it but

of course there's a lot of new people with the market in the way that it is and uh of course things can get maybe misheard or if it's not exactly perfect it's uh it can come off wrong but of course I think the majority of people know um your sort Of style and uh and how things actually work yeah cool cool cool all right uh start out with the weekly here I know there's a lot on this chart and I'm GNA kind of go through piece by piece here but um first of all this uh

we'll get we'll get to all the Bull and Bear zones later on when we look at some of the other uh earlier time frames but um but definitely in the bull zone for for the market of course uh couple of things on here one I'm marking these lows before a Rally so you got a low before a rally here uh and then you do the cycle to where we hit a low toward a rally and then you got a low toward a rally and and so forth um that's going to be important as we look

for possible local highs and some possible uh cycle highs and then and then what I also I I was just kind of looking at these angles just to see what kind of angles we are at nothing nothing uh set in stone but uh this angle was about 31% 37% 39 uh Right now we're at about 33% angle at the moment uh on some of these so that's just guidelines for me nothing that's nothing important so if you guys are asking what's all those degrees for I was just kind of looking at these uh latest uh

highs to lows or lows to highs basically uh and then we had these period of consolidations then we had another low to high so I was really looking for the low before the rally cycle is what I'm kind of looking at There uh a couple of other things I have on here uh from when my bull Zone started here the these fibs here these black fibs on the side over here uh are when my threshold Theory goes into the bull Zone here and then these are the fibs that I follow based on where I would

want to be you know buying heavily on shallow FIB areas and in this case it goes all the way down to 747 on the weekly uh to where I mean to where the market could go all the way down to 747 And still make maintain a bullish structure not to say that it's going to go there uh but that that's the fibs that I'm following uh on here uh so just just so you know what these these numbers are over here now a couple of other things I have on here are some Trend based extensions

uh and and what I'm doing is I'm measuring the low to the high here and then go down to that low and then you get the fibs going up uh and in this case uh this last one This period of consolidation before we broke out here uh had a a couple of targets that I was looking for there was a zone between 111,000 and 118,000 uh and I have this horizontal line at 117 and that 117 comes from other charts that I've had to where that was another Target that I had past 108 uh so

after this 108 hits and you take profit and then this Market comes down into some areas that were actually buying at the Moment uh based on some of the shorter time frames uh and I'll show you that later on uh but uh what I'm looking at is possible local high around that 117 uh possibility uh and then all the way up to the 200% at 146 so I know that's a pretty large range uh and and the timing on that is based off of the you know these degrees that I have here and I got

two different I got this January to March time frame here between these two red lines here and then I also got the October November December of fascinating this is absolutely fascinating uh 140 is actually one of my one of my major targets and uh within that time frame too which is really [ __ ] interesting between the January to March uh yeah q1 yeah exactly q1 yeah yeah q1 time frame uh so so basically I was looking at two different things because the the way my analysis has been Going based on the fibs and and

where I put a lot of this stuff and and and I tried to take like the behind the scenes was a [ __ ] show and I tried to bring all these charts into a picture is what I've been trying to do for everybody because there's a lot going on behind the scenes and we'd be here for three hours of trying to explain it all so I try so I tried to put it in this nice picture uh so so what I did here was I I put these two vertical lines and that basically is

The first quarter so I'm looking at two different I'm looking at two different targets one is the 117 to 118 and then the other On's all the way up to 146 so somewhere in there think that's going to be a a top to look at uh somewhere in that first quarter and if we kind of keep this angle going you know the middle of uh uh the middle of that time frame is is just what I'm kind of keeping that angle at at the moment not to say that it's going to work perfectly But I'm

looking at that January to March time frame somewhere between 118 146 now that to me is not the ultimate high that is not the cycle high for me because just because of all the timing and I'll show this on a lot of other stuff too but um when you look at the low to low to low if this gets into this time frame here uh if it gets up to 118 uh then I think we'll get a little bit closer to um uh basically if we only get to 118 this first quarter um you know

then I Think we go into a a much longer period of consolidation uh to where it's only 118 down to this 94 basically 949 uh and where that comes from is just the timing so if you get up to 118 we maybe we get into a little bit more of the sideways if it gets all the way up to the 146 maybe we get up to 146 and then we then we crash all the way down to where I have marked June of 2025 uh and that's just because of the Lows that we've seen here

the low to low to low if it wants to keep the same pattern then you're going to get a low in June uh and then but the main thing is is this this trend line off these is going to be a major support guide for me so anything basically if this trend line breaks to the downside you know then we're an overall bearish Market you know primary bearish market then we're looking at much much lower pricing I don't think that's going to happen but You know just just to have safeguards always need to be an

invalidation of course yeah yeah exactly uh I mean right now the the threshold for me is all the way down to 60,000 before this thing even breaks bullet structure which is kind of nuts when we're talking you know six digits and all that kind of stuff but um think now I know it's just so nuts but so much but but but we got the 108 and we're getting a sell off which to me I'm Not surprised I'm surprised on a little bit on how quickly it came down uh but I was looking for you know

definitely a correction uh and not a crash everybody's like you know the Market's crashing I'm like no it's called a correction a a crash is chaotic uh you know pretty so far to be honest yeah a correction is something that has reason uh you know a crash is just chaos you know and and I don't really see chaos right now I I think it's just a it's a Pretty large correction because dollar amount it's scary as crap but percentage it's pretty normal when you look at the percentage loss even on the lower end for Bitcoin

historically yeah yeah exactly exactly so so to me it's still a correction not this crash or chaos that's going on uh to to settle down the emotion that I've read actually I I think a really good question to kind of pose right here um while while we're in this uh what what could happen right now From this current price that would make you uh I guess maybe not bearish but just let go of all of these higher targets and have to reconsider would it be that 60 uh I believe it was 64,000 bucks that that

you uh mentioned on the line no actually I'll have a um there's some uh levels on The Daily uh that I have so when we get to the lower time frames there's some invalidation points that would say that I would get out a lot earlier than 60k yeah yeah yeah I'll Show you that here in in a few uh one of the other things I have on here is just the the fibs off this latest run uh which is in Orange right here it's probably hard to see but the third the 38.2% level is at

85,00 uh so that's a level that I think we could get to on this drop yeah uh and and then and then come up from there or we could actually be kind of uh finding finding that bottom you know now off of a correction and I'll show you that on Some of the lower time frames but the but the uh the uh 38.2% level is a is a pretty key level to keep the trend going so um I like to hit lower that lower FIB or that shallow FIB before I do the 61.8% level so

that 38.2% level at 857 is going to be something really key that you you want to kind of keep an eye on when we look at some other charts so for me I'm looking eight8 118 to 146 sometime in the first quarter then a drop to this trend line to around 95 in June and then after that then we have this next rally up uh all the way up to um I have a I have a couple fibs that overlap here around 190 19 195 or so uh and I think that's where I think I'm

going to take profit if it Ries up to that point I think you can get it all the way up to 210 as a minimum and I'll show you that here in a minute uh but I I would definitely take profit off of my model here that would say that overlap of those Fibonacci Levels uh is going to be the spot for me to to take profit now this first the 61.8% level at 155 could kind of come into consideration with uh uh with this if this kind of all works out the way it should

and that kind of thing but but but the main thing is is I I just want to let people know know what I'm looking at based on local top in the first quarter at 146 probably uh but if not 118 and and then uh we'll just have a a much longer period of Correction uh if It only gets to 118 if it gets to 146 I think we'll get a little bit more of like a a quicker zigzag type pattern into June it just depends on where you hit in that first quarter really uh but

I'm just taking it from the middle so I just want to kind of lay out some of those levels that I'm looking at uh going forward so uh 192 would be kind of that level that I or 195 would be kind of that one level that I would really like to see as a local top but I think It could get higher than that but that's what that's the one that's a spot where I would probably be taking some profit if it gets up to that point now if you look at the timing of this

when you get into this low in June and and and if it comes down to that trend line and I'm I'm just assuming that it would go down to the trend line I don't know where it would correct back to uh but that would make sense because if you you if you move this up uh if you move this up to Where if you get up that 146 or so um you know you got a 38.2% level there at 109 and you got the 862 so it kind of Falls in there in that in that

range so and another thing is kind of interesting even it goes up to that point this 80 this middle 80s is it comes up a lot on different on different charts it's an area of a pretty good floor uh to watch for on on any on any dip the dip today the dip that's happening now or if we rally back up to 118 or 146 uh the Correction that could follow that uh could could come all the way down to that point um uh right around right around the 85 to 95 somewhere right around there

but I I that's really what all I really wanted to show on the weekly here was just the timing that I'm looking at and if this all wants to hold true then we get a local top first quarter and then we get a uh a cycle top later in the year October November December time frame somewhere in there But can it go up much higher yeah I mean it could go up to 280 290 if it wants to if it wants to get kind of nuts but I I kind of like the the 210 to

2115 area and I'll show you that on a couple other things too um this was this was one that I look back there this is a weird chart and I'm not I'm not going to try to explain it forever but um what I did was all the different uh so when you look at um if you look at 2012 here uh you got 20 or 2016 you got 2020 and then the black down here is the is the 20 uh 2024 where we're currently at um and it's working perfectly because I have a I had

that 108 Target uh at at the point where if I mean it kind of dipped down here and everybody's kind of freaking out on the black line here and then it started to come up but as you can see when you look at the blue and the red and the green right here they all had that that high in here and then they started to dip down so the timing On this was kind of it was a little bit later than I liked uh because there's a lot of other charts that go beyond this but

I just want to kind of show this as a picture that the 108 was supposed to hit around no end of November but it pushed just a little bit further into December here but it hit the 108 but as you can see I mean it's prob probably hard to see but all the all these different years kind of made a high at that time and then had a correction and Then just went all Gang Busters to the North after that so if we hit this 108 uh as we did and and and come back come

back down all the other years after the having had major bull runs after this and I think that's that's where I'm getting into even though we're correcting here that 118 122 155 you know 146 155 any of those targets could come into play from this point off the correction into that first order uh as as we move into here now a couple of Other things I did was I put these trend lines on here of when the of when the actual you know rally broke based on fibs I didn't put all the fibs in here

because it gets messy as [ __ ] but when when you put the trend line in here and it breaks you can see the green broke right here uh the blue broke right here and then the red bloke broke right here and it's interesting because all those breaks are on this are on this little cycle so I'm looking so so when you look At this if we get this rally up and and we get and then we'll I I can't draw the trend line yet because it'd have to Rally to get it but if it

rallies and we get this trend line in here then the timing of this could be in into this into this time period here where you'll get a high at basically the Highlight here is anywhere between this point and this point is when they all those made highs uh somewhere in this range and that range goes from uh September of 25 All the way to uh November or so of 25 and that's where I'm getting that October November December time frame of that possible cycle High because that's when all these other years post having hit their

cycle highs uh you know they they hit at different times but they but later they broke down at different time so the way this kind of kind of plays out is we can get up into this area in here where they all made local highs and and that's that March time frame so when so when you look at that time frame I think we can get up to the get up to some of those highs and maybe that's the ultimate High I don't know if that's going to be the high or not it could but

based on previous history I'm just going based off of patterns so you're looking at that that that uh March time frame as as these local highs so you had a local uh you had a local high in here uh and then came back down and made a little bit of A high here it's hard to see but and then the blue one had had a high here and then it dipped and then made another high so you have some low local highs in here but then you also have cycle highs later on into the year

and that's what I was kind of me wanted to show was the 108 hit the way it should uh and and don't look at any of these numbers over here it's more of just measurements for me I was looking at the distance between uh the high of one year based on the Other and I was just looking at if this moved from this percentage to this percentage then this one should move to this percentage and that's where the 108 came from um so if it was going to make a high the 108 would made sense

for that for the time period I was just off a few weeks but I'm I'm absolutely okay with that uh so um that's really all I was showing on this was that that you can get a local top in the first quarter and then get a a higher um cycle top uh Later into the year I know it's a mess but uh believe me that there's a lot more that goes on behind the scenes with this one but I tried to put it in a picture for everybody um let's move on to the monthly um

a couple of things I have on here if if you follow me you'll know that I follow a lot of trend lines and and and measurements from the trend lines uh and one of the things I'm looking at on this chart was when you when you look at a trend line here and You take the furthest point underneath the trend line to the trend line itself you take that same rate of change from the break point and gives you the the target of of of where it should go as a minimum a lot of times

it'll run past it but it's typically a minimum Target so it went up to this point you know and then started to correct back we all we got all the way back down to here to to do a full retri retracement so we went up came back down and retraced and then We went on went on another Bull Run uh so again we had we had this trend line here that that broke and then you take that measurement it comes in right at this uh 24 to 25,000 somewhere in there where it hit uh but

it continued further uh and then I just took the double on this so if if it breaks back if it breaks Beyond where it should you you can take another another one to where it it worked out perfectly off of this same of change uh went up and made that high Right here then we had another trend line here that broke same kind of thing measurement uh and we broke up to this point uh and then we take a double of that and the double of that becomes the 117 uh which falls into that risk

into that Fibonacci zone between 1 111 and 118 that we talked about on on the weekly chart so to me as this as this came up and hit this target right actually blew right through it right here but then it came back down and Retested right here it Wicked down through it but it didn't have three settles or anything like that to break that that that support so the measurement there becomes the 117 off the trend line break but then you also take you had this one leg up and then you had another leg and

then you take this measurement here and then take the trend-based extension and then you look for that 111 to 118 zone is where that comes from so the trend line break Objective doubled and then the FIB extension falls into that 118 which makes sense for an area for that first quarter uh possible high that kind of thing uh and then if that breaks through uh and then you get the 118 three settles above that and that'll be on the weekly also so you get three settles above the 1182 or whatever um you get three weekly

settlements above that and that's where that 146 will come into play as the 200% and if you want to get Even crazier the 300% is at 195 and that kind of ties into some of those other levels I was looking at on those other charts so Trend trend line objectives even going the other way if you take the take the rate of change to the trend line itself um you take that and it and this worked out perfectly right here um so there there's something to be said with that so I'm I'm using those measurements

as targets uh and the other thing on here that I have on this Monthly is these 30 bars that you see that I have marked here what I'm following here is a is a 5 EMA and a 13 EMA and when the when the uh right here on this one uh if you if you go down uh vertically here the it's when the blue crosses up through the red uh in other words the the uh the slower or the faster moving up through the slower uh and you get a bullish signal here and then as

you can see it never crosses and stays above it the entire time but from That point to the high was 30 bars so if you do the same thing here and and you know it crossed back down through here and then you got the bearishness and then it hit the target right here and then it crossed again right here uh so you take the third from when the point when it crossed and then it stayed and then and then rallies on up you get the 30 bars from that point and then that ends there at

in December of 2025 if you want to keep that 30 bars the the 30 Bars from over here is the same thing it's just the start of the I just don't have it on there it's the start of the break of the moving average there um so there's I mean there's only a three sample size but if it wants to keep the pattern um 30 bars would be the end of the year or basically December 2025 uh and that's when we can get up into these upper targets uh you know the 195 possibly even higher

than that uh when we go forward so and again just like on The weekly this is going to be the major support guide uh going forward and of course if the moving average if the blue crosses back down through the red that might that's that's it's going to be a signal uh and um but typically that happens post High um of course based on math but if you get up to that point U then then that's going to be a bare signal uh to the downside but then if this gets all the way up to

this point and then you take a measurement of Wherever the highest point above the trend line is it'll give you a a Target to the downside so in other words if you go like let's see here right now it's this one right here uh I got the magnet on hold on let me uh me move this to there like that bring this down so right now that's going to be your your rate of change now if this ended up coming down and breaking the breaking the trend line there uh you're talking a [ __ ]

show but I don't think that's going to happen so as we rally up into these upper areas in here and say we get all the way up to this 195 and then it starts to break down even if it gets up to 146 uh as a high right here and then and then it then it breaks this trend line somewhere in here uh we'll just say if it goes all the way to the end here uh that's when you're talking down into this uh 60 mid 60s to 70 uh area um if it breaks the

trend line at that point But again like I said if it hits the high there it's typically later uh post so you're talking a break of this trend line back into you know anywhere between you know it's where those 80s come back into play uh so that's why I really like this 195 area as a high at the end of next year uh and then break this down and get a major major correction back into the 80s so I'm just going off timing here just to kind of look to see but if this wants to

stay true 30 bars From when it when that moving average crossed over to Wi the high hits um I'm just going to follow that pattern until it tells me otherwise um and then on this one just another picture of the monthly uh just a couple of the trend line targets uh this one was just a trend line once this broke up here uh this measurement brings this to 123 uh which Falls uh which just above the 1225 here which is the basically your your uh fibs from taking the Absolute high to low uh you take

there's a couple ranges that I like to see this 835 to 91 uh which the top of this at 9 111 is something to really consider here because that's the uh trend line break here a little bit I'm not super excited about trend lines that that that range upward like that but if it's G to if it's going to go that direction uh and and hold this level of where we've kind of tested so far this month on a low uh You get that and and we get a third monthly settlement uh above this now

um this month likely we settle above 91 hopefully uh and and then we get that third settle and if that's the case then then you're going to take the orange measurement and then that breaks out to about 151 off of that now remember the trend line breaks are always are typically minimums so it'll either get to that point or or it could run uh further so on this one it could run a Little bit higher into this zone so this 123 could come anywhere between you know 122 and 131 uh and then of course the

the 150 one could be U you know anywhere between that and the 200% is 165 but we'll have to kind of go with that uh that 155 so which kind of comes into that 146 that we kind of that I kind of like as a possible uh uh local high here in the first quarter uh and then if that's the case then what we'll do is we'll take uh Uh if if all of that happens then you'll get the low to high here uh and say it gets all the way up to the 155 uh

your 38. 2% levels right around 100,000 uh that's if it gets to that point so if it rallies up to there then you're going to come back down uh into uh I had June before let's see where June's at yeah I forgot this is a monthly so um so basically you get up to this point up into here and then fall back down into There now if it doesn't get uh into that 100K let me see lost my thing here if it only gets to the the 122 uh then that's when the 38.2% level is

at around 83,000 so and then and that that's where the load of mid 80s is coming back into play as a possible uh support Target uh so just just another quick measurement there on the monthly um this one I'm just I'm just using a modified shift uh uh what do you call these freaking things U fans or whatever The hell they call them but the Pitchfork that's that's the word I yeah modified shift Pitchfork that's what I was looking for um so what what I'm looking at here is is uh these darker areas in here

are the 100 uh the FIB levels of 27 to 141 because because whenever I do my fibs on my thresholds whenever we get to aund uh the 127 to 141% range is typically that line of defense to give Us a possible reversal uh so so as you can see this rally went up into that area right here dropped down into this point of support came back up and retested but then and then uh got close to there and then and then worked its way down so uh once this broke then it came down to this

point and then we worked our way up blah blah blah but what I'm looking at here is uh this this line here when you take the the timing of this this is I took February just Kind of the middle of the of that first quarter um when you look at when you look at the uh High here and you take the Pitchfork off of this this this line right here is at 125,000 uh and if it wants to get past that that next line um or in other words if it wants to take if it

wants to take longer to get all the way out to December there's a 155 here but this 155 could be pulled over like this uh to where uh it could work up into this Range uh and get close to this one uh the 14 or basically the the FIB extension here to where that could be that last line of defense before it heads lower um and then before it or before we get up to these upper highs uh so that next level if it wants to Rally all the way up into the end of the

year that's coming in at around 208 on this uh right on this intersection right here which comes into the that FIB extension so um just looking at some Targets on on On looking at it from a different angle uh so you're looking you're just looking at the pretty much similar targets uh when you look at it from this from this way and if it gets and basically you're going to look at uh you know this level here if it wants to get all the way back down to this point on the chart down to here

uh that's 65 but this next one right here is is that mid 80s so down of this mid 80s right here and then if that breaks then you then you would be Looking at this next one down here which puts us at uh 81 so you got got an 81 to 85 range in here if it wants to dip down into this into this area uh here over as a low into this area but just showing you more targets um and now the reason I before you go on I mean to be fair like low

mid to low 80s is not out of the question like Bitcoin from cycle to cycle typically has like a flavor of the cycle type of Correction you know in 2017 it was like 35% last cycle was was A little bit closer to 30% um and this cycle Corrections like the major Corrections they've been around about 20 to 25% on the bigger you know on the upper end 25% down from 108 brings you to what mid 80s something like that I mean y yep you know ex it does make a lot of sense to me yeah

yeah when you when you look at the actual correction percentages it absolutely makes sense uh all right last last of the macro charts um is this one here um and the reason I Like this one or I like 210 as a as a possible possible High here is when when you look back at history here for BTC whenever we broke I mean I got a bunch of them on here but uh whenever we broke the uh any of these highs um or broke a previous High into a new high so you know we broke into

a previous High to a new high you know this right here is a previous High into a new high every time that happened the market always got to the 361.50 per level uh so every every one of them now there was there there was this one year that got to this point right here at 4,000 and then dipped and then rallied up much much further but it but it got to the the 361.00 um so to me if you get to this High comes back down and then once this one broke a new high the

uh above the 19,000 that we were waiting for forever uh and then it broke to the upside uh the the 3 61.8% level Was at 40,000 which hit and then came back down and went up a little bit further uh and then same kind of thing you got the high here at 69,000 came back down and then once that broke into a high that's where the 361 the 361.00 level hits 209 so no matter what time you look all the way back down to when we were in pennies if you go back and look every

time you made a new high it always made the 361 point8 per level Um not say it's gonna but if it wants to if it wants to continue history um that's a that's a fib level that I like and I'm going to kind of continue to watch that um to where the 361 uh 8% level hits so that's where the 210 comes in but I also have targets based on my threshold Theory and some of those uh uh from when from where I took the fibs to where I do the trend based extension based off

those fibs that's where the 195 comes in as a Target so I'm I I would be comfortable taking profit there and if it wants to Rally to 209 uh because it has done that in history that's fine um I'll I'll take that I will not complain um right now yeah so so I just thought that was very interesting uh just because I follow a lot of fibs and and uh if it wants to get up to that point uh I'll take that I'll take 209 on the 361 or the 361 per. um now another thing

that I like on here I Have these vertical lines on here these dotted lines it's really when I'm I'm looking at this level on the RSI that when once it clicks this this level and you look back at history these are when a lot of these momentum or you can't see it on here but um once this gets up into this point and yes it gets into a kind of an overbought condition but once that hits it gets into this nice Bull Run uh to make the high and then and then starts to come back

down now now once it Gets down below this level right here it kind it does kind of a reset uh and then once it gets back above that level again right here uh that's when it it it definitely dipped down people probably getting a little nervous but it definitely didn't get down to a reset so once this broke Above This level that's when the bullishness comes into the market now there's a couple other points in here you know we went on this bull run came back down on here we had a Reset right here and

then it but right at this level it did not break the level I'd like to see right here uh in other words it didn't make a new high as you can see right here um and then went back back down did a little bit of a re it didn't have to do a reset because it never really broke back above it but it wasn't until this point is when it broke and as you can see it started to break a new high right here and then we went off on a bull run uh so if

you look at where We're at today uh had a reset down here got back into this bearish area down in here uh and then came back up and then we broke back right at this point uh has not went into a reset as it comes back up uh so in other words we should be on that next Bull Run to the 210 as long as this is holding here and then and then this went into that new zone so uh just a different way that I'm kind of showing my Bull and Bear zones but um

uh just a way to say like this is when it this is Basically when the Bull Run started uh based on based on the RSI here and the momentum behind it and all that kind of jazz uh but you could also you know take trend lines and those kind of things like uh looking at this as a as the break point so when you look at this going into this point and you got the break point right here um that's where that's where I kind of do those measurements on see the the the thing is

with trend lines anybody could draw them Right but trend lines are easy but they're hard to master so in other words you got when you draw a trend line you need some validation on why that trend line is being being put in the first place uh so in this case this one kind of has this breakout and a retest and before it takes off at the same time this is happening this is where the break point should be and then that's when that trend line breaks so I'm going to that's why I'm kind of looking

at This so if you take the same rate of change and Mark it to the upside here you you got a minimum you got a minimum of that 140ish uh but about 146 147 which is nice because I think a lot of a lot of other analysis is coming in around those 140s 150s which I kind of like so um but I like that as a local top not a cycle top because to me the cycle Top's got to get up to 209 if it wants to keep the pattern going from from all the Historical

breaks to new highs if it wants to keep that up um but again don't know if this is ever going to happen and you got to have your your uh um lines in the sand in case it breaks and those kind of things and that's what brings us back to um some of the lower time frames um so that's all kind of the macro picture so so to to recap real quick just so you guys know the numbers I I think first quarter possibly 146 as a high could only get to about 118 you Know

120ish but I I kind of like the 140s for that first quarter uh and then the local top I got a profit at 195 or not local top the cycle top I got a profit at 195 but I think you can get up to about that 209 210 uh as a possibility um if the patterns hold through through hold true now if we break some of these and the whole pattern breaks then that's going to be a different story and this this is where uh this will kind of come into play here A little bit

let's go back to the Daily Now what what I'm looking at here uh now now I'm going to focus a little bit more on the Bull and Bear zones because these are going to be my kind of my guides to let me know are we still bullish are we still bearish that kind of thing um now if you look on here the Bulls Zone on The Daily broke back in September um September 16th or so or 18th went into a bull Zone um and rallied up a little bit came back down And did like kind

of a retest uh but when it broke here it came back down and didn't get back down into the bare Zone as it was testing here um on the break point uh which is a good thing because then it keeps you in the market so if you did buy this break or or if you bought this bull Zone and it came back down here uh you're either adding or you're holding and then and then it went off to the races so what I'm looking at is uh and we have many many trades going Up here

because as this goes up to this point as it dips you're probably going to be buying or I would be buying the shallow FIB at 63 and of course it went all the way down and scared me a little bit I'm sure uh but then it then it BR broke back up and then we had another one here here go to a a new high came back down and hit the the 38.2% level so you're actually buying again uh keeping the trend going uh and then and then you have this one that made another high

Came back down and hit the 38.2% level and you're going to be buying again uh to where then of course you you're having some you're going to have some take-profit targets that I don't have on here anymore because I cleaned the chart up but as you can see it kind of stair stepped kind of nicely as the highs were made to the 38.2 get get press my position get me even more long and then once it gets on that nice Trend uh you're just kicking ass and and taking Names you know I mean uh and

then and then and then you work up to this point and then this is when we get on this major rally to where this shallow FIB doesn't even get close anymore uh because we get get a little bit more parabolic but then we get to this high this high this high and this is kind of where we're at today um the 108 hit which was one level to kind of take some profit for sure uh and and then the 108 388 hit and then then then we're on this Correction to the downside now a couple

things here on the daily are what I'm what I'm looking at is one the shallow FIB right now for the daily is at 89 588 uh that would be a buy if it hits there but then also if you look here at 925 is the bearish threshold so it could actually dip to this 89 where where I would be a buyer even though it would go into the bare Zone part of my uh model is that you have to have three consecutive settles underneath this Shallow FIB uh to go to to bring it to bearish

so even though this goes into the bare Zone below 92 if it does it might not we might be getting support right here uh which makes sense uh based on some fibs I'll show you in a second but uh it could go it could go below 926 here uh and go into the bare Zone but it's not fully bearish until you get three settles under 895 now if that happens then we're looking down here at 779 for a possibility um you know for Your next buy or those kind of things but I I don't I

don't look into that until I take things baby stuffs I'm not like well it's going to 77 not yet it's not uh so um so I'll wait for that so right now I'll be buy I have a limit order in to buy there at the at the shallow FIB uh if it gets there so I it would be nice if it Wicked down there and came back up which would be very beautiful which definitely could uh but I think what we've we've already found Some buying interest already off of this low which was the previous

low right here but but one of the things that I like on this is that the uh the 127 to 141 range that is typically where you want to see first line of defense and you saw you saw it try to get a little bit of a line of defense here but it still held support right here with without three settles underneath and then rallied up so to me with it finding support at the bottom of this range is a Good thing uh so that's a good sign that this could continue back up to where

I can get into that 117 Target that I talked about or the 118 somewhere right around there uh but 117 was that Target that I had on uh on my next uh Target level to take profit above the 108 uh so the 117 is right there uh so we're finding some support and then the 117 will go up to that point now if we get to the if it actually holds there and rallies up to that 117 then then the Shallow FIB is going to be moving up to about 95 which would which which is

smacked da in the middle of that zone which would be nice to kind of give us a a nice floor to look at uh for a possibility of a higher highs up into the the the three the 300% is at 152 but as we seen on some of those other targets that we were looking at on some of those other charts you're looking at 140s 15 145 146 somewhere right around there but 152 on this got 155 I mean We're looking at pretty large ranges here because of what we're looking at but but you kind

of get the gist of you know that 140ish area is probably going to be uh somewhere to kind of look uh for a possibility there uh so that's where I'm at on The Daily here and that's what I'm kind of looking at on uh where we're at in the market now um so right now I I I have a limit order in there just just waiting for it to go to the upside now let's go back so so in Other words we're still in the bull Zone even after this correction we're not in the bare

Zone definitely getting down here testing some support so but we're not going into that bare Zone yet but if we do we need to three settle so that's very important uh for for my model um so if we go into the 4 Hour um this is this is kind of where that scenario is happening when it comes to this previous shallow FIB right here uh because when you look at this if this goes into the Bears Zone I would end up putting in and just say that it did um just say it went into the

bare Zone on on this move to the downside right here what would happen is I would actually shift I would actually shift these over and and I actually Mark these in red U to where this level right here would become the previous shallow Fib so if we go into the bearish market uh you would look at this level as you're lying in the sand and then three settles under That would be your stop uh so you would actually be buying this on a dip uh to that point but then if you get the three settles

it would stop it out so so that's why I wanted to kind of show you there on that because when you look at it on the 4 Hour that's kind of where we're at uh when we had this nice run to the upside and we and we hit that 108 the uh the shallow FIB right here is at 934 uh is that previous shallow FIB which is a target that I had a limit Order in at to buy while in the bear Zone uh because um uh that's that's the next Target to buy uh so

I bought there and dipped down a little bit and then we've kind of rallied up and found some support right there so that's my buy Spot while in the bare zone now what I would do with that position um is is hold on to it uh and press it as we get into a new bull Zone if it gets back up and starts to make new highs so that'll be kind of my Foundation to get long Again uh getting back into this Market going forward now if it gets to this point and breaks down and

gets three settle three four hour settlements underneath this then that will be my stop on this uh to work to the downside now this these blue fibs uh so so basically when you're looking at this is where this is the zone that we're in at the moment um uh that's the wrong one it's right there uh when you when you look at the when you Look at this fibs going up on here this is basically your bull Zone that I'm looking at uh when this breaks down the 200% is right here and that's kind of

where that Target is uh and that's why I had a buy there so what I Norm what I do is I'll go back in history uh and look and go back to where that next Target is uh and you're probably looking right around this point um right here so in other words uh if you get three settles under underneath the this 934 um and it and it breaks down the next Target under here is going to be the 842 which is the 61.8% level of this move so you can get all the way down this

842 and and still maintain long-term bullish Market as we saw in the weekly and those kind of things so that mid 80s could be a possibility if this ends up breaking with three settles underneath if not I'm long and I'm ready to go on that next leg to the upside side if this Wants to be the spot for a little bit of a turnaround which would make sense because it's hitting it's hitting a previous shallof FIB or a major area of support on my system but it also hit a 200% extension uh and and a

couple other things you could look at to to bring some support in the market now now you got some other levels in here you can kind of look at to buy like 86 or 88 or whatever if it's breaks to the downside but the way I play it is I'm a little Bit more conservative if this breaks I'm waiting all the way down to this level to get to get a buy back in uh after those three settles what would be awesome is if it actually just crashed all the way down here got me filled

and then got back above that level before even had the three settles over a four hour period hey it could happen it could it's Bitcoin at the end of the day anything's possible yeah yeah exactly but right now we're getting some support Which I'd like to see which is good uh and then may maybe we can start rallying back up to the upside get back into a bull Zone get this thing rocking rolling again so real near term is bearish but only to a correction into support so far the daily still maintaining a bullish uh

look and structure weekly is definitely holding that structure so from the daily on everything looks primary bullish now the 4 Hour definitely got a little bit Of near-term bearishness to it but didn't really signal overall bearish for that 4-Hour time frame if it did most likely the daily would click into that be and then that's really My Line in the Sand is if the daily goes into the bearishness that's when I think we'll get into the into the 70s and I would want to wait uh you know to get into that uh shallow FIB on

the weekly which is which is in the kind of that mid 70 area on there so that's kind of My Line In the Sand so I kind of you I trade the 4 Hour and the daily the weekly and these upper macro time frames are just guidelines I don't really trade those I trade the four in the in the in the daily so the 4 Hour to me is the is the ins and the outs of the market as you're trading but that daily is really going to give me that precursor of a possibility of

a primary bearish Market or not but it's ultimately the weekly that needs to go into the bear before I Would actually short the market or byy puts or anything crazy like that um so so in other words we got correction down to possibly mid 80s maybe much larger if everything wants to break down but everything right now is looking pretty supportive uh even even though it's uh dropped down as hard as it did so uh I know I'm rambling here and I I've covered so much and I hopefully I without with only lot of heads

exploding on this one I need more coffee because I I'm still waking up and I'm like I don't even know what I said these it's beautiful ma'am no I think this has made a lot of sense I think that this has flowed incredibly well um I I was able to follow everything that you were saying especially on the higher term time frames uh it seems like the your general thoughts your general analysis as to where things go from here what's possible I suppose I think that's very very clear and uh that's of course That's of

course what everyone loves at the end of the day though you know like you said when you're doing analysis very [ __ ] far out a lot of things can happen a lot of things can happen it might not be exactly perfect but it you know the general trajectory the general Trend I think that you showed is incredibly helpful lines up with a few of my things I do have to say some of your targets a little bit higher than mine even on the most bullish end but You know I can well be wrong on

that and I'd be very happy to be wrong on that as well and I very well could be wrong also so that's that's the that's why you got deserve the right yeah that's why everything leads back to risk management first right right you know have your have your lines in the sand and your and your plan and stick to plan and that's what I use the thresholds for uh they let me know uh to get out uh or or to stay in you know or that kind of thing So uh it takes the emotion out

but again like you said macro picture very Anything Could Happen even though I'm gonna toot my horn here a second even though since we've been doing this for almost three or four years now with you out of I think four out of five calls I've hit lows and highs four of the five big ones yeah yeah big on like longterm ones that's why I say you are the best who I've who I've seen who does it for the longterm like I just have not seen That before where someone's that accurate that often over a long

period of time I mean we like you said we've been doing these videos since I believe our first one was around 2020 and we started to do them very regularly from 2022 and this whole last bull market you know we've been we've been a lot kind of uh in lock step but you making these calls well before I was and that was just [ __ ] super impressive to me man so massive hats off to you I think I I I Wanted to to my horn there a little bit but course Happ to do it

as well no but the reason I brought it up this is the main reason yeah even though I've hit it four out of five times does not mean [ __ ] when it comes to this next Target in other words because exactly so I don't want people to think that if I'm four out of five on this this is almost a definite to happen that's not the case it can and I'll be happy when you're right you're the hero When you're wrong you're you're the devil yeah EXA exactly so that's why I kind of wanted

to bring it up even though it been successful yeah doesn't mean that it's going to 195 by the end of the next year but but I think it is is but we'll see we'll see what happens um and we'll play it from there absolutely man and of course we'll have you back along the way like I say whenever you want you just let me know when you got something new we're happy To have you on man I know the community here loves you and uh and I'm very happy to have you as a friend and

and a regular guest on this channel man so thanks again Mr fibos Swan you can find all of Swan's links in the description below he's very active on Twitter trading View and then you also have your own uh Trading Group as well where you kind of divulge your secrets um as with regards to your actual system which I think uh people got a pretty damn good Insight into it today so awesome man um thank you so much and uh we'll see you next time all right thanks gr been been great