it may be dangerous to be America's enemy but to be America's friend is fatal that was Henry Kissinger's brutal assessment of US foreign policy and today Ukraine is finding that out the hard way Trump's u-turn on Ukraine has raised eyebrows in Europe and even in America itself once a vocal supporter of sending military aid to Kiev he now seems eager to broker a deal with Moscow one that would leave Ukraine in the Lurch behind Clos doors Trump's team has allegedly offered the Russians substantial concessions including Ukrainian territory sanctions relief rolling back US troops from Eastern
Europe and barring Ukraine from NATO membership and while the negotiations are still ongoing Russia has offered little in return this sudden pivot begs the question why is Trump giving up so much what does he see in a deal with Putin that makes it worth abandoning Ukraine a country that once received unwavering bipartisan support is it a genuine strategic shift or just Reckless deal making well to understand Trump's goals we have to look at the bigger picture the one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting well I'm going to
have to un unite them and I can think I can do that too that's Trump forecasting his approach in an interview from October 2024 four the war in Ukraine has dragged on longer than many anticipated it has taken a toll on us resources and focus Trump and his security advisers see a need to shift priorities believing that Washington should focus on containing China rather than engaging in Endless conflicts in Eastern Europe in many ways Trump's policy toward Russia mirrors an old cold war strategy designed by none other than Kissinger himself self the logic behind it
is simple if two of your enemies are close pull one away it worked in the 1970s when the US courted China to isolate the Soviet Union now Trump looks to pull the same Trick In Reverse flip Russia to contain China in the decades to come seen in this light Ukraine has now become a pawn set to be sacrificed on the grand chessboard that's how it goes in geopolitics some alliances last only until a better deal comes along of course Russia and China know perfectly well what Trump is trying to do in anticipation Beijing is now
on a charm offensive of its own it wants to strengthen coordination with Russia it is hosting nuclear talks and holding joint Naval drills while promoting Russian Goods at home meanwhile more Russian oil was imported into China than ever before and trade between the two hit a new record high but a lot of these events are also somewhat artificial take the story of China and Russia strengthening coordination in international Affairs it seems reasonably objective at first but when you look at the ownership of the sources 54% comes from government sources so yeah a lot of things
are all happening at the same time to keep track of things I use ground news its tools allow me to compare local and Regional sources and form an Outlook of my own I can't stress enough how important this is which is why I asked ground news to sponsor this video I recommend checking out the blind spot page they share lots of interesting stories that other news outlets often miss due to biased reporting go to ground. news/ Caspian or scan the QR code on the screen to learn more subscribing through this link gets you 40% off
the Vantage plan also by subscribing you're directly supporting my channel thank you ground news the link is [Music] below details about Trump's peace plan for Ukraine are scarce both American and Russian diplomats have revealed little about the extent and reach of the negotiations all we know with certainty is that the talks are taking place during the most dangerous phase of the Ukraine war War this requires some clarification in November 2024 the Biden Administration permitted Kev to use long range missiles against targets inside internationally recognized Russian territory including USM attachs and UK made Storm Shadow missiles
Ukraine has put these weapons to use hitting Targets in Brians and Kursk these attacks have the Kremlin on edge not because of the damage they inflict but because of America's disregard for moscow's nuclear deterrent something which the Russians have communicated many times over Putin for instance has said that Ukrainian forces cannot use weapons like attacks and Storm Shadow Without technical assistance from NATO personnel and so from the Russian Viewpoint when Ukraine uses these weapons it's as if NATO itself is attacking Russia while attacks have been used against Targets in Crimea without much retaliation hitting targets
within Russia's Mainland borders is a step up the escalation ladder so in response to what it sees as NATO aggression the Kremlin published a new nuclear Doctrine in November 2024 one that lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons this new policy makes it easier for the Russians to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries like Ukraine as a show of Force Russia then fired a nuclear capable missile at a military base in danpro the damage was relatively minor so the missile probably had no payload and instead served as a demonstration of Russia's resolve still
later in February 2025 the Russians used the Drone with a high explosive Warhead to hit the former Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine which damaged its radiation Shield though there were no signs of radiation leaks regardless these incidents show the growing nuclear risks and the necessity of negotiating a ceasefire this is why Trump is in a rush to settle some sort of deal with Putin a deal where Ukraine would surrender Territory Resources and sovereignty to Russia in return Trump hopes Putin will Ally with him against a much bigger more powerful adversary in the Far East as
calculated as it may seem Trump's divide and conquer policy toward Russia and China stems from a flawed misreading of the past and a misunderstanding of the present Kissinger's trilateral policy succeeded for two reasons firstly by the time of his secret trip to China in 1971 Moscow and Beijing had already been bitter enemies for years and China sought to improve relations with America as a counterweight to Soviet power secondly at the time Moscow wanted to patch up ties with Washington to reduce the pressure of both the arms race with America and its standoff with China fast
forward to today and the Dynamics have changed neither of those past conditions exists now sure Russia and China aren't ideological soulmates but they are strategic Partners they share a mutual distin for American heemy and have found a way to work together based on shared interests and that's good enough for added context China steadily became Russia's largest economic partner following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Western sanctions that followed the Ukraine war then cemented this relationship as the United States and the European Union applied even harsher sanctions Russia came to rely almost in entirely
on China trade between the two soared in the last 2 years for instance Russia got about 40% of its imports from China and sent over 30% of its exports there military cooperation has also ramped up with joint exercises and intelligence sharing mechanisms now firmly in place the two complement one another's strategic shortcomings Russia is an abundant source of natural resources and has provided China with cheap energy and Technology transfers meanwhile China is an industrial Powerhouse and has offered enough economic backing to keep Russia afloat in its war against Ukraine by combining their assets Moscow and
Beijing could well dominate Eurasia which is precisely what America fears the most admittedly Russia doesn't like playing second fiddle to Beijing but it recognizes the economic Lifeline that China provides especially since it has been cut off from many Global Financial markets what's more as beijing's power and influence continue to grow Russia sees this as an opportunity to leverage its Alliance to maintain geopolitical influence in a multi-polar world so Russia's pivot toward China is not just a reaction to US policy it's part of a broader realignment in the global order today the partner parip with China
has become a strategic imperative for Russia and its modern-day leaders see no alternative to it Trump's objective to flip Russia isn't just Theory it's been floated before during his first tenure Kissinger reportedly encouraged Trump to improve relations with Moscow to counterbalance China's rise but here's where reality sets in the Ukraine war has made any American Russian reset nearly impossible the West has levied heavy sanctions on Moscow and the Europeans see Russia as an existential danger so if Trump wants to split Russia and China he has to make Putin an offer that outweighs what she provides
and right now that's a tall order Beijing offers economic support diplomatic backing and a growing Tech sector that Russia desperately needs this is not to say that the United States has nothing to offer though on the contrary Trump's team is reportedly negotiating the withdrawal of American troops from NATO countries that joined after 1990 including Poland Romania the baltics and others from the Russian point of view NATO's Eastward expansion at its doorstep is a threat to its survival and the Kremlin would like nothing more than the exit of American troops as of 2022 the United States
has over 100,000 troops in Europe with 10,500 troops stationed in Poland 4,000 in Lithuania 1,700 in lvia 2,200 in Estonia 2100 in Slovakia 800 in Hungary 3,300 in Romania and 900 in Bulgaria if Trump presses on with the withdrawal of US troops it should be taken as an attempt to court Russia Russia with the goal of containing China however relations between Washington and Moscow are at their lowest rolling back NATO's Eastern flank may not be enough this then explains the recent shutdown of us Aid you see since the end of the Cold War promoting democracy
through US Aid has been a staple of American foreign policy institutions and organizations backed by us Aid have frequently and publicly criticized Russia and China for their lack of democracy but the two have always resented this rhetoric as a violation of their sovereignty so by closing us Aid Trump is looking to make another concession to Russia no more democracy promotion from now on which means reducing us soft power in certain parts of the world these two major concessions degrading NATO's Eastern flank and the shutdown of us Aid are in addition to Trump's sacrifice of Ukrainian
Territory Resources and sovereignty so what Trump is essentially negotiating is to redesign the global order he's making room for the Russians so that they join the Americans to box in China this framework is critical to understand otherwise none of what Trump does will ever make sense even so it's questionable whether the Russians will take the bait unlike the Cold War era when ideological Rifts created political divisions today's world is shaped by economic interdependence sure Russia will gladly accept concessions from the United States but there is little reason to believe that the Russians would reciprocate in
a meaningful way let alone do a 180° turn and suddenly become hostile towards Beijing China has proven itself to be an Irreplaceable Ally another point to consider is that even even with Trump's back-to-back concessions Putin knows that this will be Trump's final term by contrast Putin plans to stay in power well beyond 2029 but by then a new US president could take over and cancel the deal with him for the Kremlin this makes any agreement with Trump feeble at best meanwhile relations with China are stable predictable and too valuable to replace framed this way Trump's
peace deal with Russia seems shortsighted and unlikely to work as he hopes in fact Trump is more likely to hurt American interests in the process concessions to Russia would come at the cost of alienating NATO allies many of whom see Russia as a long-term threat if the talks with Putin fail Trump will have lost more than he started with his rhetoric will damage American soft power across the board and leave ukrainians and NATO allies feeling betrayed the toll for this gamble will be severe so much so that the next president will have difficulty repairing those
burnt bridges in geopolitics as in life the worst sin is to destroy and betray yourself for nothing I've been your host chivon from Caspian report thank you for your time and so [Music] [Music]
