this is where the Triad of Iran Afghanistan and Pakistan lies it is a region full of activity though often for the wrong reasons here communal life is broken International borders are breached daily and both militants and militaries Carry Out secret operations each looking for the next power grab in recent years the region has become even more violent and unstable exceeding its usual turmoil reciprocal skirmishes now make it one of the world's most dangerous areas in January bosi insurgents launched attacks across borders into Iran and Pakistan the Iranian Air Force responded by bombing covert groups within
Pakistan prompting Pakistan to strike hostile camps in Iran later in March Pakistan's Air Force targeted Taliban units in Afghanistan in retaliation for an earlier assault meanwhile a different Taliban unit had hit Iranian positions near the border a year prior more recently in October separatists attacked Karachi Airport killing Chinese Engineers the list goes on and on but these incidents show just how intertwined Insurgency and local grievances have become the 2024 Global Security index now ranks Pakistan as the fourth most most affected by militancy Afghanistan at 6th and Iran at 26th here nationalists jihadists militants and governments
all fight for Supremacy but things are getting worse with each attack the Triad is now slowly merging into a single battle space and borders have become like chalk lines bold today smudged tomorrow this region also has the distinct honor of being one of the most unfriendly places for women the Taliban has recently tightened its morality law Banning women from hearing each other pretty insane stuff however as horrible as this is I believe it is essential to access local sources to stay informed about how the region is doing and where it's going that's why I asked
ground news to sponsor this video meanwhile in Iran a female student was detained for protesting the strict dress code she stripped to her underwear in demonstration some 250 articles were published on this with an even distribution between the right center and left no articles from irond which should come as no surprise with everything that is happening around the world stories on women's rights will simply drown in the background noise so I appreciate that ground news picks up on these stories their blind spot page also surfaces these kinds of interesting items that go under the radar
of all other outlets go to ground. news/ Caspian to learn more or scan the QR code on the screen subscribing gets you 50% off the Vantage plan as a limited time offer that's what I use your subscription will also help support our Channel and make more content possible so I recommend you check it out the link is below [Music] underneath the Contemporary boundaries of Central Asia lies the ghost of corasan echoing the memories of ancient empires once a rich cultural and political Center corasan was ruled by various turkic and Iranian monarchs each vying for dominance
yet the seat of power shifted so often that no unified Authority ever developed as a result corasan became Asia's version of the Wild West in the 19th and 20th centuries corisan became a Battleground for the Russian and British Empires which sought to take up defensible positions the Russians Advanced from the northern steps while the British came up from the south What followed was a period of intense geopolitical conflict that gradually eroded kisan's shared identity caught in the crossfire was the young Afghan State both both Russia and Britain sought to control it after years of back
and forth hostility a peace treaty was signed in 1893 that turned Afghanistan into a British client State the peace treaty crafted by Henry Durand established the border between British India and Afghanistan by drawing a line straight across the map which he named after himself Durant sat in his office and simply calculated how far British infantry could fire from their westernmost posts and mark the line accordingly no consideration was given to geography history or even existing realities on the ground nonetheless the Durand Line was signed and imposed on the region for the locals however the agreement
was a disaster it cut straight through ethnic communities that had existed together for centuries the pashun people were particularly affected as the new border divided their towns and cities pashun were the rulers of Afghanistan and while many pashton areas remained in Afghanistan many more were left outside of it this included Peshawar the city of pearls for pashun losing Pasha felt like losing an arm or a leg it was a reality they could not accept even now a century later successive Afghan governments have continued rejecting the Durant line adding to the tension nearly three times as
many pashun live in Pakistan than in Afghanistan not surprisingly this fuels strong irredentist feelings in Kabal which is why Afghanistan claims Pakistan's kyber pakon Kua and balistan regions if an Afghan government were ever able to unite the pashton people into a single political entity pashton dominance in Afghanistan which currently accounts for about 40% of the population would grow stronger moreover Afghan control over sparsely populated balistan would give it access to the world's oceans these two goals becoming an ethnic majority and escaping landlocked isolation could then serve as the foundation for a modern centralized Afghan State
this vision for nation building has been shared by all Afghan governments old and new that includes the Taliban emerging from the wake of the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan the Taliban ruled the country from 1996 to 2001 following a Civil War and once again since 2021 after the American withdrawal although the Taliban avoid openly presenting themselves as strict pashon nationalists their Origins and beliefs are deeply rooted in pashun culture like past Afghan governments the Taliban strongly opposes the Durand Line so much so that it draws strength from it for example the Pakistani Taliban which is
different from the Afghan Taliban exists solely to undo Pakistan's control over kyber pona the region that is home to Peshawar City and where the pashon make up the majority Islam Abad designated the Pakistani Taliban a terrorist group in 2008 leading to Fierce fighting between the two since then thousands have been killed the Pakistani Taliban has carried out attacks on schools taken hostages bombed mosques and more however these clashes make for an unusual conflict Islam Abad and the Afghan Taliban have historically had close ties but this relationship has cooled as the Afghan Taliban shares a deeper
bond with the Pakistani Taliban even so much of the hostility unfolds along the Durant line with the Pakistani Taliban carrying out attacks kidnappings and all the other things expected from extremists meanwhile Pakistan responds with drone and missile strikes but must carefully avoid targeting the Afghan Taliban so yeah an unusual conflict to make make matters worse in 2015 Isis corasan or Isis k for short emerged as one of the militant groups thriving from the turmoil although it has Global Ambitions Isis K has mostly focused on fighting Kabul not Islam Abad since it doesn't consider Pakistan to
be part of historic kisan either way with the Taliban back in control of Kabal Old Wounds have reopened and new ones have appeared in their pursuit of dominance Taliban leaders have now allied with several baloi sectarian groups the balois have a lot in common with the pashun they too are a divided people most live in Pakistan where despite numbering in the millions they make up less than 4% of the population as such there is a sense of marginalization within the baloi community and many feel that their cultural identity is under threat this feeling of vulnerability
extends to the Iranian side as well unlike the majority Shia Iranians bosis are mostly Sunni because of these differences in language and religion bosis are Iran's most alienated ethnic group and thus the most inclined toward separatism and baloi separatist groups are plenty there is The bistan Liberation Front blf for short it was formed in 1964 and has roots in the anti-colonial and nationalist movements of that era there is also the balok Liberation Army or bla for short this one was formed in the year 2000 as an offshoot of the blf however unlike its parent group
The bla rejects the political process and Advocates solely for military action both the blf and bla primarily operate within Pakistan over in Iran meanwhile there is yish al-adel a jihadist unit with similar goals it was formed in 2012 and is believed to be funded by Saudi Arabia and the United States in recent years all three baloi separatist groups have acquired American weapons and equipment from the Taliban that new Firepower has led to deadlier attacks than ever in Pakistan baloi groups have targeted buses trains and bridges in the first 10 months of 2024 there were 624
deaths and nearly as many injuries August was especially deadly with 254 people killed in one month alone baloi militants are also particularly hostile to Chinese interests in March five Chinese Engineers were killed followed by an attack on a Chinese facility later a blast near Karachi Airport killed two more Chinese Engineers things have been tense on the Iranian side too last year 11 Iranian police officers were killed near the city of rasque in response tan launched missile and drone strikes into Pakistani territory which led to civilian casualties of course Islam Abad had to set the record
straight and responded with air strikes into Iran resulting in nine deaths all the same the baloi militants aimed to create an independent state from parts of Iran Pakistan and Afghanistan arguably it's shortsighted of the Taliban to Ally with the baloi groups given their conflicting territorial claims however the prevailing belief is that they would cross that bridge after stripping away territories from Iran and Pakistan for now though by joining forces with the baloi militias the Taliban are making a play for Pakistan's kyber Pak Tona and balistan regions but without saying as much one of the main
sources of turmoil in this region is the availability of resources or lack thereof the water conflict between Iran and Afghanistan is a prime example of this struggle as a country country with towering Peaks most of Afghanistan's water flows from the Hindu Kush which stretches across its northern and Central regions these glacial mountains feed the country's hydroelectric dams and produce hundreds of megawatts of electricity however these dams also limit access to an already scarce water supply creating severe impacts for Downstream Iran take the Helman River as an example Le it's one of the largest rivers in
the region flowing from Afghanistan all the way up to the hamon Lakes by the border with Iran who controls what where and how much of it is hotly contested both Afghans and Iranians are ready to die for it and some already have attempts to formalize water rights have all failed the closest thing to a binding agreement is the 1973 Helmont water treaty it forms the basis of bilateral water policy according to the treaty Iran can draw 22 cubic M of water from the river per second with an option to buy another 4 cubic m per
second in years of normal rainfall however since the treaty was never ratified enforcement relies on good faith something in as short supply as the water itself political unrest in both Nations has not helped either events like the 1973 Afghan coup the 1979 Iranian Revolution the Soviet Afghan war the us-led occupation and the rise and fall and Rise of the Taliban have all disrupted Regional projects as a result long-term infrastructure planning has been inconsistent with local geography paying the price a comparison of 1998 and 2019 satellite photos of the hamon Lakes makes it easy to see
how such water scarcity can fuel conflict over the years skirmishes have flared up periodically in 1998 tensions escalated to the point where Iran gathered nearly 200,000 troops on The Afghan border poised to launch an attack and even though Iran ultimately backed down the incident showed just how easily disputes over water rights could spiral into full SC conflict even now tensions persist for instance in May 2023 deadly clashes broke out between Afghan and Iranian guards near the hamon Lakes three were killed and each side blamed the other for starting the fight arguing who began what misses
the larger Point what matters is that the borders of Iran Afghanistan and Pakistan are devolving each at its own pace and setting Islamabad tan and Kabul have each failed to keep a lid on the ethnic Nationalist and ideological forces at play gradually the region from Pakistan's Northwest to Iran's Southeast to Afghanistan South is merging into a single battle space human trafficking drug smuggling jihadist Fighters Fringe militias and separatist factions are all blending into a massive self destructive security crisis that eats its own this Triad may already be the most dangerous place on Earth but an
even greater threat looms if the situation continues to escalate the remote factions could find ways to draw the national governments of Iran Afghanistan and Pakistan into direct State on-state conflict some of the most devastating armed conflicts in world history were triggered by small Powers it's called the proxy provocation Theory it explains how smaller powers can manipulate or influence larger ones into Conflict by creating situations that compel the larger powers to respond in ways that serve the smaller Powers interests if things keep going luck and reason will eventually run out and regional conflict will take place
and once the storm rolls in it will be too late to run for the hills I've been your host chivon from caspan report if you approve of what we do please leave a comment hit the like button and mayhaps share the video in any case thank you for your time and S [Music]
