ladies and gentlemen we have all of your Tesla stock breaking news what's going on over this weekend what the situation looks like for Tesla option activity on Friday as well as option positioning going ahead options don't tend to be the end all Beall for what's going to happen to a stock if people are super bearish buying a lot of puts selling a lot of calls it doesn't mean the stock necessarily is going to creater vice versa if hedge funds institutions and Retail investors are buying a lot of calls it does not mean guaranteed the Stock's going to go higher but it does give you a pretty good indication of sentiment and if people are putting their money on the line well that's something worth looking at so we will look at that here in this video short position on Tesla Google Trends data all of it and I will also share my thoughts on what to expect over the coming weeks and months do I think Tesla's going to go higher into year end or do I think Tesla stock is going to go lower and perhaps since there's not really any huge breaking news today for Tesla we should start with that do I think Tesla is going higher or lower this is a bit of a mixed bag so if you're super bullish or super bearish you're not going to like this because there's a bit of a bull case here and a bease here obviously in regards to the election it's pretty simple as long as there's not a sweep and as long as you don't have a delayed election contested election as some people call it you're probably going to get a bullish response in markets this is the big event that Wall Street has been looking forward to there's a lot of put protection out there you can see this represented in the vix that's almost at 22 like this is a high vix for the S&P being down about 3% from alltime highs typically you don't get a 20 plus vix until you're 5 6 7% down on the markets unless there's obviously some kind of big Catalyst and the this varies from period in time to period in time but it's generally okay to say volatility is high today after the election some of that uncertainty is going to go away and some unwinding of Hedges will take place that means perhaps hedge funds and institutions shorted Tesla they shorted the Russell they shorted the SNP and maybe after the ction they start to cover on some of those short positions so from a technical tactical perspective as long as we don't have a delayed or contested election and as long as we don't have a sweep then I think there's a really good chance markets go higher now if it starts to take a day or two even to know who the president will be and the makeup of Congress that's going to stoke more fear in markets liquidity is going to dry up on the buy side and you'll likely see more shorting at activity which there's not going to be a lot of buys to counteract that that means markets could tactically fall I guess there's a potential good and bad outcome from the election now two days later on Thursday we are going to have the FED meeting the fed's going to cut rates 25 basis points and they are going to sound very bullish probably the most bullish that you have heard from the FED in a long time because they don't want to see treasury yields going up the way that they are especially when we got a 12,000 print on jobs for last month literally almost negative and 10-year treasury yields went up 10 basis points that is the opposite of what you would want to see happen if you were the FED if you are the fed and the labor market is presumably like almost going negative which only happens during recessions you don't want the economy to be tightening at the same time it really lowers the odds of a soft Landing so I think the FED is going to be very bullish on Thursday and that could add more fuel to this Market to send things higher now this next segment is on a caseby Case basis but it's earnings big Tech earnings largely speaking were okay Apple was a little on the worst side Microsoft was a little on the worst side um as as as far as the cloud segment Azor slowing down same was kind of true for meta but that had to do with capex all in all I would say earnings themselves were actually pretty good not enough to to give you huge upside in those big Tech names besides Tesla Tesla earnings by far have been the best blowout quarter that Tesla had and that what's that's what makes me a little bit more bullish on Tesla relative to the to the rest of the mag 7 the other six stocks if you will but it's not really enough to tank the markets this point it's not really enough to drive those areas higher so on a caseby casee basis something like Tesla could be able to really outperform if the markets do see yields fall and uncertainty lift I think that would be a big boost for Tesla now intuitively if I'm saying Tesla and bullon the rest of mag 6 Max 7 everything besides Tesla I'm beish on that means if we get a and markets I think it's going to be a broad-based one I think you're going to get participation from the areas that have not participated like small caps like Industrials right like uh you know midcaps these areas are really going to outperform now think about the Trump trade let's assume Trump wins as the markets have priced in 10year treasury yields are going higher for really two three reasons number one wall Street's expecting a stronger economy okay that could be a little lower corporate tax rate for whatever reason the markets are expecting a stronger economy they're expecting inflation to be higher which goes pretty much hand inand with with a stronger economy and they're expecting the FED is not going to be able to cut rates as much as we think which they all kind of tie back together strong economy presumably stronger economy for maybe longer is great for small caps it's great for markets in general and I think it would be great for Tesla now from a technical perspective on the S&P you are sitting right about your 50-day moving average now here's the deal anytime you've gotten to this 50-day moving average in the past really over the past couple of years you don't tend to stop selling at the 50-day moving average you tend to break below the 50-day moving average and then find more support around the 100 day moving average and if it gets really ugly then you tend to find support at that 200 day moving average so the 200 day moving average is almost perfectly lined up with a 10% correction technically it's about 99. 3% uh from top to bottom of a correction and you're going to be at that 200 day moving average I actually think a correction could be coming um I I made that call S&P is down 3% so far but it really depends on the outcome of the election I think it could go either way we could know who the president is right away or we could have a bush Gore situation again and that would be a big problem for markets I'm going to talk about this a little a little bit more in the next video but Warren buffets Berkshire hathway now has a record $325 billion of cash on hand and it is reported that they sold another $22 billion worth of their Apple stock in Q3 um and they've now sold about 67% of their total stake in apple and I mean this is one of those things where it could be just an apple issue or it could be an issue of broader market and economic activity now why I'm not concerned about this is because Apple specifically has grown Revenue 5% in the last 3 years that's not like cumulatively like 5% total in the last 3 years it is a a no growth stock okay zero growth no growth apple does not grow but it's priced at 35 times this year's earnings it's a very expensive company with no growth like Apple's PEG ratio is is ridiculous okay um especially if you wanted to to to Peg that to revenue growth right uh not good okay so from Buffett's perspective I think it would make sense to S to sell Apple even if you're bullish on the rest of the markets right even if you're bullish on the rest of the markets you you know Apple's not really in a position to outperform and if you're trying to outperform there is zero reason right now why you should own Apple the expectation is Apple intelligence is going to cause a big refresh cycle for iPhone 16 you even had Bank of America uh that that just came out on Friday that said that but the fact of the matter is Apple intelligence in this early stage sucks people are not going to pay for it people are not going to upgrade just for it the iPhone 15 is just like the iPhone 16 just a little different and you've gotten signs that Apple's scaling down their capacity to produce the iPhone 16 we're not going to get 5 to 10% iPhone growth over the next 12 months it's just not going to happen the 17 has a better chance a way better chance I actually believe the iPhone 17 might be a super cycle I'm actually interested in getting the iPhone 16 or 17 but the 16 just is not super appealing from a apples to app kind of you know Viewpoint or vantage point it makes sense to sell Apple here out of any of the big Tech names the last one I would hold is Apple I think you'd have to pay me to hold Apple at this point like you'd have to give me like a fat dividend or something because they priced for growth they have not seen in years and the iPhone 16 is not the product that's going to give them that growth so do I think Warren Buffett is instinctively just super bearish on our markets it's possible I think he's more concerned about Apple's expectations in the near term and again Warren Buffett kind of missed the co bottom right that was one of Buffett's you know biggest mistakes was not buying enough during the covid lows I think Buffett wants to be ready for any potential turmoil that does come our way and take full advantage of that and I think when you have a situation where Apple could take years to catch up to what the markets are pricing in as far as growth it doesn't make sense to own Apple so to me is Buffett bearish on Apple yeah for sure at least in the near term is Buffett you know concerned about the broader markets I don't think we know that with certainty I think there is other areas to be excited about in our markets right is if we as long as we have a soft Landing which I don't know Buffett's exact stance on that but as long as we have a soft Landing small caps interest St sensitive basically pick any other 493 companies in the S&P and I would probably rather buy any one of those than big Tech at this point and I shouldn't say that because some companies in the S&P are not as great but it's just from a value proposition there's more to gain in the rest of the markets than there is to gain in big Tech you've already priced in the returns now that's where Tesla really stands out and I think Tesla could outperform in the coming months if we do have the more Goldilocks bullish scenario Tesla stock is going to go much higher from here Tesla is going to be a three plus100 Company by likely midpoint 20125 as long as we have this off Landing no wild contested election with court proceedings or any any kind of if you will Black Swan event Tesla's going dramatically higher in the near term once we get the election out of the way once we get the FED out of the way which I think the fed's going to be a bullish Catalyst um I I I think we have a pretty good chance of moving higher but I just don't know what's going to happen with the election itself and that's where there's a little bit of hesitancy in my personal opinion I do think overall we are in a higher risk environment over the next two weeks potentially longer than that I think I think Wall Street really gave the jobs report a pass because of the Hurricanes because you know the uh Boeing strike but it was really bad no matter what you want to say about it no matter if you factor in the Boeing jobs no matter if you factor in you know some workers getting laid off because of the Hurricanes it was just not a good report that's the bottom line is the next month's report going to be bad I don't know is the month after that going to be bad how does December's jobs report look hell how does first quarter 2025 jobs report look right so I really think we're in a higher risk environment over the next at least couple of months really even the next six months you're in a higher risk environment but higher risk does come higher reward if you do see markets sell off that is something I'm personally looking to take advantage of but you can only take advantage of that if you have capital on the sidelines ready to be put to work and I think that's what Warren Buffett is doing he's he's probably not saying you know this Market is guaranteed going to fall like he's probably not super bearish but I think he would acknowledge the risks out there as well so these are just my opinions on Tesla and and and markets from here I don't know with any degree of certainty what's going to happen um I would say it's 50/50 between you know 10 20% correction depending on what happens here over the next you know couple of weeks or couple of months I would also say there's a good chance that things go just fine and you get 5 to 10% upside in the next 3 to 6 months I think a year from now if we do have a soft Landing you're going to have to 20% upside from here in the S&P um but again we won't know if we're going to have a soft Landing until probably midpoint of 2025 let me know your thoughts on that down below in the comment section but getting into Tesla a little bit here you have short interest offer flow at 2. 84% 9.
81 billion currently sold short in Tesla stock totaling 79. 3 million shares you do have return shares of 1. 16 million on Friday borrowed shares 650 545,000 and uh that actually means you had coverage shares of 57,000 on Friday so uh actually looking at shorts covering on Friday which I mean the stock was only up a half 1% so you may not think that's what was happening but in fact shorts are trying to uh drisk themselves from Tesla stocks upside potential here now option activity looks pretty similar actually coming with a very good number for Friday you had 226 different trades totaling $78.
