Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Indicator

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the pi cycle top indicator if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into cptv. org and the general idea is that it predicts Bitcoin top to within 3 days now you may be curious how it works essentially all it is is taking the 111 day SMA and the 350 day SMA times two and figuring out when they cross and when they cross historically that's when bitcoin's price tops out to within 3 days now you may look at this and say well that's pretty good in 2013 remember this was created in 2019 so it's easy to go back and find stuff to fit to what's more difficult is getting future Peaks which this one actually did there's a lot of indicators that fail to do that this one actually did that's why we're talking about it so in 2013 you can see that it it you know within 3 days again fit in 2019 same thing in 2017 right within three days of of the Cross and in 2021 when it first got put to the test you can see that at the first top it got it to within three days now the second top obviously it did not but in the pi cycle tops defense I don't really think there were hardly any indicators that got the second top um you know to the day or anything like that and so and I also think the argument is that well if you sold at 64k in April the price of Bitcoin still went to 15K you know a year and a half later um so what if you missed it out on it going up to 69k and it only was for a few days and again it was like half a year later so in this case though what I want to draw everyone's attention to is I I could Envision a scenario in the cycle where everyone's waiting for this thing to cross and I'm not suggesting this time has to be different but I want to show you something that I have shown you before but because there's going to be some new people it's probably time to show them too so one of the things you'll notice is that every time they've crossed the time the amount of time that they stay crossed for has gotten less and less and the extent of their Crossing has diminished right look at this one keep this in mind then look in 2017 you can see that was much less significant of a cross and then look at 2021 it barely crossed I'm still sick um so then I wondered what if we were to take these two moving averages right two times the 350 SMA and 111a what if we divided them by each other if you do that you see diminishing peaks in order for them to cross this has to go above one right that's when the moving averages are equal to each other and you can see that last cycle it barely got above one the cycle before that it was all the way up here at you know 1. 07 the cyc before that it was all the way up at 1.

18 and 1. 23 and so you can see that where people might go wrong with this in the future is assuming it gets back up to one what if it doesn't right what if it doesn't go all the way back to one because what if you're getting diminishing Peaks so if you extrapolate this which really shouldn't do and any good scientist or engineer will tell you that interpolation is okay generally speaking but extrapolation is is not a good way um to navigate things but this is dubious speculation my friends right and and of course we're going to speculate dubiously over here so if we did and we said what if we connect the Peaks where would it put it well I'm glad you asked if you ignore that one right and you just connect this one the actual top right you know the extent of the moving average division so then the next one and the next one then you get over here and you can see it would be if it were to occur now it would be around 0. 9 obviously if it occurred later it might be less than point.

n right now the moving average division is at 0. 55 but obviously this is going to start moving up pretty aggressively soon because Bitcoin just had a fairly explosive rally right so it's going to take some time for those moving averages to catch up by definition moving average is in fact a lagging indicator and in fact in the first couple of Cycles you know you can see that by the time the moving average division peaked it was a month or two after the actual top was in it was only I mean in 2017 it occurred about a month beforehand but last cycle they basically occurred simultaneously so you can see that it's getting shifted each time to within you know to where the actual top is occurring so back in March and April we did a video on this and I suggested that you know April would be a or that March was a midcycle top and not a market cycle top and that we'd have about 6 to 9 months of a downtrend and the reason I suggested a midcycle top and not a market cycle top one of the reasons was because the p cyle indicator had only gone up to 735 or so and if you extrapolate it would have suggested that that wasn't really high enough for it to justify being a market cycle top but at some point down the line and I don't know when it's going to be and we can't even know if it's actually going to happen or not right things happen markets don't always go how we plan but at some point down the line especially within the next year or so if this moving average division of these two moving averages that make up the pcle Top If we see them getting back above 08 then you shouldn't just so caution to the wind right I mean it it would certainly warrant some level of of skepticism as to how much higher it's going to go now again extrapolation would suggest 0. 9 could happen if it happens now if it happens a year from now then it could be lower than 0.

9 um so it really all depends on on on when it happens and exactly how that plays out but I did think that this is a a worthwhile exercise I know the last time I did this video uh there were some mixed results or mixed comments mixed feedback I think some people liked the Insight that this gave and then other people were like well you know you're basically saying this time is different I suppose the other way to look at it is to just draw a horizontal line and to say that you know it'll hit it again but you can at least see the concern right as to what if it doesn't hit it again um what if it just sort of continues this trend and then the indicator uh doesn't actually fire in the same way that it has before to be clear though I mean I wouldn't really consider that to be a failure of the indicator I think it's actually a really interesting indicator and the interesting aspects of it can sometimes be buried right and if you actually take these things and you know you you play around with them and you and you kind of see any interesting underlying Trends you can find them and you can see that the indicator typically bottoms out moving average division around. 3 right. 3 and every time it hits around.