hey guys welcome back now after this most annoying midcycle top everybody wants to know the big question when is the next big explosive move coming to crypto I think we can all agree that six long months is enough time to wait after all this is meant to be the bull market right well instead of just sitting on a Mountaintop chanting hopan Vibes what we can do is to look at what's happened in the past and then we'll have a good idea of what may be coming next and for this we need comparisons and in this
video I have five firstly a very spooky comparison as to what happened in 2016 then the closest comparison we have to when the FED cut rates for the first time in the last cycle in 2019 then as we're about to enter Q4 we can then compare quarters and see how does Q4 compare then we'll do a nice comparison against the preh harving years and then finally what happens when a new president is elected is it a good thing or a bad thing so as you can see quite comprehensive but by the end we'll have a
good idea as to what may be coming next okay so first up there is a bit of a spooky thing going on right now and what happened in 2016 check it out and so the first comparison is 2016 and shout out to Ben from into the cryptoverse for pointing this out and this is the ethereum chart so whenever we talk about ethereum it's a very good proxy for the altcoin market as well and what is highlighting is what is going on right now to what happened in 2016 and the reason it's a little bit spooky
as it takes it from January to the end of the year and so far it's been exactly like for like and this is going back what eight years ago so January both months were green months then Feb green green green green red red green green red red red red red red green and September so far is Green so so far it's following 2016 exactly so this does predict that October November December unfortunately are all going to be red months if history repeats so a couple of things to point out on that obviously this is the
worst case scenario out of the five comparisons hopefully it doesn't keep on doing what it did in 2016 however worst case scenario even if it did so this was your October November December look at what happened the following year one of the most explosive moves ethereum had ever seen and can you imagine going through similar to now this six-month downturn getting disheartened wanting to sell your eth then all of a sudden a terrible month a terrible month and just think about the people that sold here so this is when ethereum was about $5 to $10
and if you'd have sold here it then went on to $1,400 so even though it may have been a terrible 3 months 3 months from now 6 months from now 12 months from now it really really wouldn't matter another way to look at this data is this way so this is just ethereum monthly returns and it's pretty much the same data so we're looking at 2024 comparing against 2016 now I'm not sure why these two aren't filled in now depending which data you pull from this was a green month so it was green green and
it follows green red green triple red green and then predicting the three red months which is what would happen here so for me this data set because it's going all the way back to 2016 and ethereum had only just launched late 2015 so this is really its first full year and as we know when we talk about Bitcoin when ethereum's like $5 or when Bitcoin is about a dollar when you go back that far for me this data is just not useful so although it's the worst case scenario out of the five comparisons I also
think it's the weakest data set but this is predicting three red months now we move on to 2019 and again we're looking at the ethereum chart so more representing ethereum and altcoins and this comparison is because it closely relates to what happened with the fed's rates as interest rates were climbing keeping rates higher for longer and then this is a comparison to the rate cut cycle so it's actually 2019 now the reason this one is concerning is that monetary policy is very correlated to the crypto Market as we've talked about a lot with liquidity and
interest rates it does relate probably even more stronger than the Bitcoin harving and this one for the Q4 is predicting a relatively flat October and then a negative November and a negative December interest rates were first cut here and it did take at least a month maybe two before the market started to fall so there is a real possibility that October November December if for a bad recession were to hit if unemployment were to spike and people get fearful this is a legit comparison and this to would predict a weak Q4 with November and December
being the worst now the next comparison is all about quarters as we're about to enter Q4 how does Q4 compare against Q3 2 and 1 well let's start with Bitcoin and this is what we're looking at down here now when it comes to bitcoin out of the four quarters it is the strongest quarter out of the four with an average of almost 90% in fact it's a massive quarter so this now flips extremely bullish for Bitcoin followed by q1 being the second best Q2 being the third best and Q3 being the worst now when it
comes to ethereum and likely altcoins it's actually q1 that is historically the strongest quarter followed by Q2 then it's Q4 and the worst one is Q3 and if we check out what ethereum's done in Q3 it's certainly been the worst quarter but one week to go we are moving into Q4 so although it's the third best out of four it's still positive so this says to me that if we compare quarters then October November December is going to be very good for the entire crypto Market the fourth comparison and this time it's comparing the harving
years as right now we are in a Bitcoin harving year being 2024 and they happen every four years so last one being 2020 and the one before that 2016 so now we can see what has happened in previous harving years to give us an indicator as to what may be coming next so we look at the one in 2020 and September it was coming off a bit of a negative month even though this time it's positive but then I always like to look at the month before as it helps give a good indication for where
things are going so8 positive 7 where this one positive3 but 8 so not too dissimilar leading into Q4 and this suggests that October is going to be a boom month November being even better and December being even better so if it's anything like the last harving year it's going to be a great 3 months another bullish comparison and if we go back to 2016 again very similar couple of months leading into it but again October is good November is good and December was great so if we compare against the previous Haring years it suggests Bitcoin
is going to have a great run and ethereum and the altcoins it's a similar but not quite as bullish picture so we're coming off a negative 22% for August September so far is positive which is not too far off there was a nice 25% here but then negative here so a similar run into Q4 this suggests if it's like the last Haring it's going to be a good October an amazing November and a very good December and if we go back to 2016 so this was actually our first comparison and it's also a Haring year
and this one actually is negative negative 17 22 and 6 so you could say this is mixed results there's not a lot of data one being positive one being negative you could say this is equal but for me after studying large amounts of data for many many years there is certainly a principle of recency so the further you go back into a data set the less useful the data if you were to look at the stock market a 100 years ago and see what it did because it's such a different time it's not as useful
as looking at the last 20 years of the stock market and similar here once you go back to the birth year of these cryptos the data just Goes Bananas when it's jumping up 200% and and almost 200% again the fluctuations are so big it's not that useful so even though there's one bullish one bearish I would say because this data is more recent it's more relevant so I'd say for ethereum and altcoins it leans to bullish that would be my interpretation and then finally what happens when a new US president gets elected as this is
also an election year as well so going back to bitcoin and this time we're looking at November so November is when a new president gets into power and then obviously December is the knock on month so if look back the last one this was when Biden got in and obviously a massive month for crypto 42% and then following almost 50% so if this were to follow sup it's going to be an amazing end to the year and then this is when Trump first got in and it was still positive so 5% and 30% so a
new US president whether it's Trump whether it's Biden I think Trump would send ballistic but even if camela gets in I still think crypto will do okay it just won't give the crazy explosion I think we'll come if Trump gets reelected but you have to say us elections seem very positive for crypto and finally ethereum last time a 60% run followed by 20% so amazing run last time and then the time before that again the 2016 comparison again the harving year comparison and this time overlaid with a new US president this was the last time
Trump got in interestingly down 22% and if we remember this is when Trump was actually negative on crypto and since then to be fair It's been a lot of years and Trump has certainly flipped bullish so I'd say overall again using the last principle of recency I think this scenario is still bullish for crypto so pulling all this together what does it mean this was all about answering the question when is the next big bull run coming to to crypto firstly we had the comparison to 2016 which was a bit spooky as it's following it
like for like 9 months in a row and it predicts October November December will all be R it's the worst case scenario and so for me 2016 I think as it's the birth year for ethereum it's just way too volatile way too early to be a good data set then we had the rate cut cycle of 2019 which says that October will be be green however November December will be red so so far not good the rate cuts of 2019 is very concerning as monetary policy is very powerful probably even more so than harving however
the good news on that is that even if we get another three red months in a row it just means that the entire cycle will be stretched out longer all the gains will still come it will just be delayed by another 3 months so it's not all bad next we had the quarters and for Q4 it is the best quarter for Bitcoin however for ethereum it's the third best out of four but still overall positive next the Haring years say that October November December will be great for Bitcoin and likely good for ethereum and finally
I think a trump win would be bullish for the entire market so I say let things unravel as it unravels if it is next month then great however if it's delayed till January then so be it it's still coming it's going to be big and it will be well worth the wait so there you are guys as you can see as promise this was quite comprehensive however now you should have a very good idea of what has happened in the past and what is likely going to be coming our way if you do have any
questions or comments then post them below however just remember to get rid of 100% of the comment spam and trading Bots that plue YouTube comments we are trying out the new super thanks commenting system so to get your question or comment read and reply to or just to say thanks then use super thanks below and for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does and I'll see you in the next video bye for now [Music]
