Islamabad under a security lockdown due to political unrest | Inside Story

Pakistan's capital is sealed off security forces have been deployed to stop Imran Khan's supporters from marching into Islamabad they're demanding the former prime minister be released from jail and the government resign could this lead to more political instability this is Inside Story [Music] hello welcome to the program I'm Bernard Smith tens of thousands of people have reached the outskirts of Pakistan's capital Islamabad in what is looking like the biggest protest March since February's disputed election that vote bought the Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People's Party to power but Imran Khan supporters say the vote was

stolen from their party the PTI and that the Judiciary has been manipulated to keep their leader out of politics khah has been in jail since May convicted of corruption he says the government and the establishment a euphemism for the powerful Security Forces want him to remain Behind Bars PTI supporters are demanding can be released and the government resign so what might happen next can Pakistan's government survive could can be freed we'll look at the issues in a moment but first this report from fon Monahan Islamabad is a city under lockdown roads are closed internet is

restricted and police are out in force they've promised to respond swiftly to any demonstrations by supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan the entire Central District is being monitored by Islamabad police if any protesters come they'll be arrested immediately Pakistan hundreds of con supporters have already been arrested but they remain undeterred they want their leader out of jail and the current government out of office tens of thousands have come from across the country and they want their voices to be heard God willing we will stay on the streets and continue the struggle for our

rights until the return of our rights of the people of Pakistan in 2022 Imran Khan was removed as prime minister in a no confidence vote since he's been charged and jailed over dozens of criminal cases many of which have resulted in a quitt KH supporters say his Rivals are weaponizing the justice system to keep him out of power his Tariq anaf party the PTI was banned from contesting the elections so his loyalists ran as Independence combined they won the most seats no party won a majority however resulting in a coalition government and more protests on

the streets of Islam Abad many long for stability and return to normality these regular protests are not only destroying our economy but are making our country situation unstable which is not a favor to our country at all we want Pakistan's top political leaders to sit down and find solutions to these problems the situation is very serious this should not happen it is impacting our country's economic situation there should be political stability in the country the only option is that these parties should go for elections there is a conflict between the government and the opposition which

is having a negative impact on our country and it should be resolved but for now Pakistan's political Giants appear to be deadlocked Imran Khan's supporters are determined to get him out of jail and back in power his opponents in the governing Coalition want him out of office and out of politics permanently finson Monahan Al jazer for Inside Story the protest come Pakistan faces many challenges Kamal Haider reports from Islamabad on some of them thousands of protesters of Imran Khan the former prime minister who's in jail are Marching on Islamabad and getting ever closer now to

stop them the authorities have requisitioned the services of the militia that you see behind me marching towards me backed up by the Rangers who are also going to be using right gar and shotguns to stop those protesters from coming into Islamabad they're also backed by tens of thousands of policemen who've been brought in from other provinces to beef up Pakistan's d square a famous protest venue the situation could not have come at a worst time as the country has seen a cycle of violence in the parachinar district along the Afghan border where sectarian groups have

been fighting each other and amounting dead toll also the fact that the country's economy is suffering the Pakistani government is on a bailout from the IMF and daily losses are now said to be in hundreds of millions of dollars because the transport system telecommunication mobile services internet services have been blocked and so have many of the highways leading to Islamabad which of course is leading to a loss in revenue for transporters schools are closed and the country is under virtual Siege now the important thing will be how the government settles this particular problem people at

large are saying that there should be a political solution to a political problem and that the use of force May exacerbate an already complicated situation this is Kamal hyen in Islamabad for Inside Story and let's bring in our guests joining us from Islamabad is azima Chima a political economy specialist and founding director of the Pakistani Think Tank Verso Consulting in Washington D.C is Hassan Akbar the Pakistan fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center he previously worked in both the Pakistani government and the private sector focusing on National Security and strategic policy and in San Francisco is

Fahad hon a visiting scholar at the center for International Security and cooperation at Stanford University Welcome to all of you I'll begin with you fad if I may do we sense do you sense the beginning of the end game in Pakistan for this coalition government it's difficult to say at this point in time um Pakistan is unfortunately no stranger to crisis and um the political turmoil that we're seeing at the moment is the extension of um a crisis that began in 2022 when uh prime minister Imran Khan was removed from power through a vote of

no confidence since has been incarcerated with a number of criminal charges against him most of which he says are politically motivated uh but essentially what we're seeing is um a Faceoff between uh a popular politician arguably the most popular politician and consequential politician in Pakistan right now and a military establishment that is intent on trying to uh ensure some degree of both political and economic stability which has eluded Pakistan for several years um the problem uh at the moment seems to be that both Imran Khan and the military establishment have very hardened positions um and

it doesn't seem as if uh either side um is is willing to sort of compromise or or soften its positions to a point where a solution could be reached in this current crisis um Imran Khan has called on his supporters to march on Islamabad uh report suggests that the the sort of mass mobilization that Imran Khan had intended perhaps hasn't materialized um but it's also important to consider the obstacles that Imran Khan's supporters faced both in terms of arrs and detentions and uh the Crackdown on um PTI activists PTI being the party that Imran Khan

repres okay well Hassan we are hearing that there are tens of thousands of people on the outskirts of Islam Abad is that enough to dislodge this government to force to force somebody's hand um I mean as as fad said I think it's early to say uh what the outcome will be I think it will depend largely on how sustainable this protest is going to be um we should remember that only a month or so ago uh Imran Khan protesters led by the chief minister of K pakun Ali Amin gandapur also came to Islamabad with almost

the same demands for release of Imran Khan but they were unsustainable as soon as they reached Islamabad they had to leave the capital uh the police cracked down on them in a in a major way so we still have to see how this is going to pan out they are right now at the outskirts of the capital um and there is a heavy deployment of police uh both from Islamabad police Rangers and police from outside uh from other provinces which have been called into Islamabad so we have to see the arrangements are unprecedented I must

say that the administration in Islamabad and the federal government has made unprecedented uh Arrangements this time we've not seen such a large scale lockdown um there have been containers on all major highways have been blocked um the internet has been slowed down uh and so we still have to see how this is going to pan out I think the outcome will depend largely on whether the protesters will able to be able to reach Islamabad and then sustain for a day or two I think that would force the hand of the government to negotiate Zer are

two other the guests are hedging their bets but the the military's had to essentially lock themselves in the capital haven't they do do you sense any tension there in Islam Abad I mean there's tension all over the country really uh um far and H raised extremely pertinent points I think it's really important to remember that not only have PTI led by Imran Khan marched on Islamabad before but the first March was 10 years ago now they were able to sustain that March for a really long time it was months and months and perhaps we take

that precedent and expect that they will not be able to affect those kind of results unless they can achieve that kind of a protracted sustained uh protest in the city what I think we shouldn't underestimate is that Mr Khan has been able to successfully mobilize protesters his party workers and his party supporters at least again and again in cycles and that has led to this you know sort of protracted conflict pun punctuated by these cycles of protest and that Mr Khan has been able to do this with little to no cost to his popularity on

the other hand um I think Kamal head's report uh aply uses the word Siege the state has in fact besieged itself in Islamabad uh hass's right the containers uh the container presence the restrictions on Mobility uh the um restrictions on connectivity are happening at an unprecedented scale and the difference is that we we are perhaps as of this morning realizing that we may be looking at a week or so of this now week of or so of this kind of a shutdown in Islamabad at least uh means that you know it means critical costs to

the business uh uh to the business of government to the business of the private sector to Children going to school and these are uh these are being born largely by population that's suffering huge losses under Pakistan's economic crisis anyway so there are costs to public perception as well farad there are uh there have been these protests before we have seen this before in Pakistan but surely now it's getting much more serious the economy particularly is in a terrible mess the government has to go wants more money from the IMF it got that 3 billion short-term

loan it wants another 6 billion now is it different this time in terms of the protests and the consequences the the economic situation isn't great in Pakistan um it's perhaps not uh as precarious as it was uh several months ago um the approval of a new IMF funding program and the slight upgrade of um The Sovereign credit rating of the country has um in some ways uh helped the Pakistan Pakistani Eon economy in terms of its out Outlook having said that um I don't think we're out of the woods yet and for the political establishment

this kind of political instability is only likely to compound uh risks to the economy um as well as the impression of uh insolvency which the military establishment and the current government has tried very hard to fend off um Imran Khan's strategy right now is essentially that of the gorilla Insurgent he doesn't necessarily have to show that he has um he's able to Rally huge crowds but he simply needs to show that uh The Establishment and the current government is unpopular and doesn't enjoy the mass support of the country to the point where governance is actually

difficult and I think he's able to do that quite effectively even though he's Behind Bars uh the fact that he's in jail makes him immensely popular I think it's important to remember that uh 2third of Pakistan's population are currently under the age of 30 many of these young people are either unemployed don't have good economic prospects and see in Imran Khan um you know uh the aspiration or the hope for a political future that uh sort of takes takes on board uh their their aspirations okay so Hassan there is huge economic pressure on the government

isn't that one estimate I got was a half a billion dollar hit to the economy at the moment with the roads blocked and the trains not running it's surely not sustainable I agree it's not sustainable especially given that uh I mean over the last two years the economy has had some success uh in terms of stabilizing at least on some macroeconomic fundamentals uh Economic Security and the state of the economy has been a big concern for the establishment for the ruling Elite in Pakistan uh and for the International Community uh um and and so in

that sense I think continuous losses is something that are going to bear on on the government and and force the hand of the establishment to move forward and find a political solution to the current crisis again I think the fundamental Point here is that you know what Imran Khan's continuous mobilizations again and again have demonstrated is that Pakistan's politics in many ways are you know transforming because of the youth bulge as fad was mentioning um because of the social media people are accessing alternate sources of information uh majority of young people in Pakistan they have

different aspirations and I think in the long term in the medium to long term there needs to be a reset uh of politics in Pakistan we really have to figure out a way uh of moving forward where we're able to deal with this perennial issue of political instability uh and frankly dealing with the question of how we can transition from one government to another without entering into these Perpetual phases of of Crisis uh so I think the immediate issue right now is whether there will be a political solution the three demands put forward by Imran

Khan and his party I think those are difficult demands for any government to fulfill uh particularly related to the uh you know the amendment that recently passed the 26th amendment and uh the question of uh holding new elections uh which would essentially mean that the government would have to go uh and so since these are such large demands uh there has to be a middleway uh finding a path forward for uh which is a winwin path forward for both the government and for for Imran Khan uh I think political stability is essential because Pakistan is

dealing with many challenges we still haven't talked about terrorism I mean in the last week alone over 100 casualties uh in in two provinces in Pakistan is is frankly a very worrying concern uh for many of us I think that the challenges Pakistan faces uh we really have to move forward and find a solution to this political crisis we'll come back to the security situation shortly but azima building on something else Hassan was saying is is there a problem with the uh legitimacy of Shabbat sharif's Administration it's built on shaky foundations because of the con

con contested election back in February it's very difficult for them isn't it to remain legitimate and I mean I think there is a broader legitimacy crisis um Pakistan's current situation is in a way a continuation of an old Pakistani situation if you go back to what fad said military dispensations do frequently come in to provide that the sort of time frame of stability in economic policy to stabilize the macroeconomic fundamentals whenever Pakistan is in a uh in an economic crisis those are you know again we have these periods of punctuated military rule that have a

direct trade-off with democracy but they do stabilize the the macroeconomic fundamentals for a time being however at the moment not only is Pakistan's economic situation extremely dire there has been a further loss uh in how people perceive various State actors uh and it's not just uh Shabah sharif's government the problem is that we did have an election that the people of Pakistan in spite of many many challenges participated in and those election results have been you know not only perceived as uh misreported manipulated they've cast you know a cloud over this Administration that this Administration

has not been able to recover from um and while the macroeconomic fundamentals have stabilized to some degree and seeing an arresting of some of the negative Trends the public have yet to be the beneficiary of any of that in fact in this interim period Mr Khan has become the beneficiary of larger public discontent because the pro the persecution of his political party has been perceived as unfair because the of the um the way the election was conducted has been perceived as unfair and again there is a lot of grievance around the economy around around taxation

around the unfair distribution of Taxation so there's a large wave of public sympathy that's supporting this that said people absolutely do not want to see violence people absolutely don't want the state to engage in violence and this unfortunately is a trajectory that we seem to be on and something has to diffuse this all right um fad is there a way that Imran Khan could potentially fix or repair his relationship with the military establishments that might then lead to a for a way to him to get out of jail um you know I think I think

we'll have to sort of wait and see um as I mentioned before both Imran Khan and the military seem to be hemmed in very much to Hardline maximalist positions um one possible solution I think would be for if I think the and the preferred solution for the military would be to perhaps release Imran Khan um perhaps Imran have Imran Khan as the leader of the opposition return to Parliament um and have the government continue its term um uh some sort of political reconciliation might be uh achieved that way um but again Imran Khan's demands that

the government go the the 26th amendment that was recently passed that has significantly Cil curtailed the powers of the superior Judiciary I think will be very difficult for either the military establishment or the the sitting government to accept right now and Hassan on on that on that 26th amendment has that weakened the independence of Pakistan's Judiciary here I think it's I think there are several questions that it has raised about about the Judiciary um and uh we still have to see how it will function um I don't think that uh it's an ideal situation uh

uh there are questions about creating uh I mean it's much better than what was originally uh the draft that was originally presented and there were negotiations between various political uh political actors and so the amendment that came uh in that sense was much better than the one that was originally proposed uh we still have to see the outcome of this uh but critics uh particularly those belonging to Imran Khan's party uh say that the reforms in the Judiciary are actually targeting his party and uh Imran Khan and the ensuring that you know the cases about

election irregularities uh do not come up in the superior Judiciary and when they do come that they are put in front of a selected uh panel uh I think those questions remain we still have to see we haven't seen any judgments from the new uh you know constitutional benches that were created so we still have to see how this pans out um in any case I think the question larger question here is is that given all the changes that are happening in Pakistan uh and the lack of stability that we're seeing is the country moving

forward and I think uh many of us have concerns that you know we are stuck in a policy paralysis uh these continuous protests are costing the economy um they they are creating a negative environment internationally I mean today when the protest is happening the president of of Belarus is on a state visit to Pakistan uh and this is not a good look for for for a country the size of Pakistan so for us to be able to move forward and and deal with some of our challenges I think there needs to be some some level

of political reconciliation and political discussion to move forward fad um Pakistan a nuclear power do its neighbors and allies get nervous when they see this sort of instability it's your particular area of interest for you um you know any kind of instability of course has has uh implications that extend far beyond just domestic politics um having said that I think um you know Pakistan is currently locked into a position where uh the economy is um not doing frankly too well um and Pakistan's Regional relationships are sort of also on autoc cruise uh or autopilot um

if you will um both relations with India and and neighboring neighboring Afghanistan are far from ideal um Pakistan's relationship with China of course is uh very much right currently seen through the prism of um economic cooperation and the China Pakistan economic Corridor um we've seen in recent in recent weeks attacks on uh Chinese Targets in Pakistan which is of course uh a big concern for uh China relations with with China um so this kind of political instability I think only deepens concerns about things like foreign investment into Pakistan um attracting attracting uh investor confidence is

going to be difficult um with with this kind of paralysis okay and very quickly also on that on that subject with you Hassan obviously this instability reflects on the you've also got the security challenges the increase in terrorism that farad was just touching on and China a key investor in Pakistan tens of thousands of Chinese workers in Pakistan all of this is piling up pressure isn't it on the government to try and resolve this political situation yes I think so I think uh there is uh U you know there is sense in moving forward in

a direction where they're able to find a solution a political solution to a political problem um because uh I think the current situation is becoming a little bit unsustainable uh especially because the constant political crisis is taking you know in some sense the focus of the government uh away from many of the challenges such as the economy that we've talked about in length but also the terrorism challenge which is becoming quite quite serious now uh you know soldiers of the Pakistan Army and civilians both are losing uh lives and are becoming casualty in the war

on terrorism uh war against terrorism which is you know now taking a new shape and form uh in Pakistan so I think that the government needs to focus on these two areas primarily attracting investment has been a big uh motto of the government uh and of the military establishment uh through the uh sfc the special investment facilitation cell uh and so in order to focus on these areas uh of Reform I think we need to find a political solution uh uh that is able to resolve the instability that we're currently seeing in Pakistan all right

unfortunately we are out of time but thank you to all of our guests to Aima Chima to Hassan Akbar and to Fahad Haan and thank you too for watching you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website aljazeera.com and for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com/ AJ insid story you can also join the conversation on X we are at a J inside story from me Vernard Smith and the whole team here bye for now [Music]