URGENT: Bitcoin Just Broke It's LAST Support Level [I'm Forced To Act]

Bitcoin is breaking down from its range low support at 91k it's an absolute bloodbath across the crypto markets I actually spoke about this level yesterday and I said if we broke down things would likely get ugly and looking across the market things are getting ugly so in today's video I want to go through exactly what my thoughts are what's triggering this dip what could potentially happen next Are we going to get a quick recovery is this going to be a really slow recovery what's my outlook for the market over the next few months and importantly

what am I doing today to capitalize on this dip I'll tell you right now I have made some very big moves in fact I've made the biggest buys that I've made in over a month on a couple of specific old coins which we'll discuss later in the video because I think the risk roid here is really really good but I'm not just Longing any old altcoin right now because you have to be really really selective with what you actually buy the dipon because we've seen over the past few months if you just keep bu buying

dips and catching knives you'll just keep getting burnt and burnt and burnt so over the past couple of months in particular I've been very very selective about when I buy if you've been watching the channel you'll know that I've been really selective with the days that have Actually gone heavy into the market I can count on one hand really the days that have made significant buys over the last 5 months and today is actually one of those days so I want to discuss why that's the case what I bought but importantly what's going to happen

to the market in general because Bitcoin is not looking good right now and and obviously it's floating with uh danger having an ongoing breakdown on The Daily of a very very key support level Actually a range that Bitcoin has been in for over 100 days it's the longest range we've had since that range of the summer last year which drove people absolutely mad so without further Ado let's get into the video firstly I want to just start by discussing Bitcoin then we're going to get into why this dip is happening what are the reasons then

I'm going to go into whether I think a bottom is forming whether I think now's a good time to be buying all coins or Whether you should wait and then I'm going to get into exactly the old coins that I bought and what I'm currently trading right now it is going to be a banger show uh I did put a lot of time and effort into preparing this I've been pretty much at my desk all day as well in the Discord we're doing an AMA after this I've been trading I've been managing my portfolio it's

been a very very crazy day so if you do enjoy updates like this on crazy days make Sure you are subscribed smash the like button by the way show some love by Smashing the like button uh for this video which I think is going to be a good one and is going to help you guys out a lot and of course have that post notification Bell on because in a market like this you need to be staying on top of things and I'm going to be here every day to keep you on top of things

um things are definitely evolving very very quickly so I'll definitely be uploading Tomorrow the day after because I think it's important to keep you guys in the loop right now I'm seeing a lot of other YouTubers go ghost many of the big channels aren't even uploading at the moment which I find very surprising because now is really the time where you need to be very alert taking advantage of opportunities that are presenting but also protecting Capital at the same time when uh certain setups start to break down I'll discuss some of the major Setups uh

I'll show you Sonic I'll show you salana towel hyper liquid all of these coins that you guys want to know about it we're going to chart them later in today's video as well but firstly starting with Bitcoin because this controls the entire Market crypto is basically like a house of cards right when Bitcoin does well you know the house stay is intact and when Bitcoin starts to break down or show weakness right now because the dominance is in Favor of Bitcoin the House of Cards starts to collapse right and really this is one of the

fundamental reasons why I think altcoins are collapsing it's because they front ran this Bitcoin breakdown so Bitcoin over the last few days has been looking really weak flirting with a potential breakdown you had low lower highs you had a compression then you had a break down to the downside and then this daily candle today takes us below the range low and Because Bitcoin was floating with danger many people preemptively sold their old coins and I guess it was a good decision if you were doing that you know a couple of days ago to Pro protect

against the breakdown which we ended up getting uh but I actually think if Bitcoin keeps going to the downside yes SS will bleed but I think a lot of the selling in terms of the aggregate amount of sales obviously percentage wise coins are going to drop but the vast majority of Sales have probably already taken place on the dr- risk on this initial breakdown so even if if Bitcoin did go to 85 or a bit lower to 84 and we'll talk about some of the lower targets I do have and where I would actually buy

Bitcoin later in today's video I don't think the altcoin dip would be as bad as some people think because ts are very reflexive and the markets are forward looking so the second there's a bit of weakness the sell-off happens really Quick and it gets priced into the market really quick and that's why we've had a big liquidation Cascade today $1.5 billion dollar wrecked over the last 24 hours Bitcoin obviously being the major coal PR but altcoins like ethereum xrp salana all having multi-million dollar liquidation days it's one of the biggest liquidation events that we've had

over the past year and you can definitely see it on the charts and you can definitely see it on the timeline in terms of the Sentiment now in terms of potential targets for Bitcoin to the downside uh Jason Pino does point out that we do have a CME gap for Bitcoin at 78 to 80k now there's no guarantee that we're going to go to this level so I wouldn't necessarily be planning your entire strategy around the Gap fill but it is important to prepare for a potential scenario where Bitcoin could go to 78 to 80k

and any altcoin that I'm buying right now and any altcoin that I'm Trading right now I'm doing so with the framework of okay there is a potential that this breakdown ends up confirming on The Daily and the weekly later in the week and we actually do go lower so I think that's really the the Crocs of things right now Bitcoin needs to show that this move below range low is a deviation so this liquidation week has to be like the prior liquidation weeks which end up which ends up getting gobbled up over the next couple

of days And we see consolidation or acceptance back into the range if we don't get acceptance back into the range and we form a base below the range I'm willing to bet 90% chance we do go lower and we potentially do look at the low 80s Gap fill that Jason bazo does point out so a lot of my framework in the short term is going to depend on how Bitcoin reacts over the next 48 hours obviously the weekly close is going to be a much higher confidence close so if we do Close Below in the

weekly that's like confirmation that the range low has broken if we close Below in the daily it's minor confirmation but it is potentially salvageable I've definitely seen many times where Bitcoin has close Below on The Daily we saw it back in this range right where we had 1 2 3 4 5 days below and then we reclaim CL 1 2 3 4 5 and then reclaim 1 2 3 4 5 reclaimed but that's very rare to happen on the weekly if you look at the weekly chart There was only one weekly candle which flirted with

the close below all of the others actually closed above so I think it's a similar scenario now you just don't want that Weekly close below obviously it's going to be a long week there's lots of macro data coming this week um daily is is doable without officially confirming the breakdown obviously not ideal but weekly would probably be a bit of a death blow and uh result in a potential scenario down to 80k so my framework is it could happen now if it does happen I'm not saying it will it could you I mean as a

Trader you got to be prepared for that in the market a lot of crypto trading is about saying okay this might happen if it does what would I do and this might happen if it does what would I do there's no absolutes in crypto there's only probabilities and you have to prepare for both eventualities and just as there's a chance that we close below and Uh we end up filling the Gap there's also a very strong chance that we bounce here and reclaim and this is deviation that shakes a lot of people out and the

reasons I made some moves that I'll talk about later in today's video is on the basis that there is still a very strong probability that we could bounce off range low and I'm sorry for anyone in the comments like oh mils you're not definitively telling us whether we're going to bounce here or not um because I Would be stupid to definitively tell you if if if I actually came out and said oh Bitcoin is going to bounce here and here's why that would be dumb and that just shows I know nothing about the market because

it's all probabilities and uh will get into my probabilistic view on things and why I made some altcoin moves later in the altcoin section of the video but the main point I wanted to get across in this Bitcoin section of the show was that 78 to 80 is That uh Gap fill Zone that if we close Below on the weekly is your next support and that is a very very very very strong support in my opinion and actually would be a level where I consider adding long-term Bitcoin exposure because I haven't added to my long-term

Bitcoin portfolio since I think September last year at 55k I don't really like buying long-term Bitcoin after big pumps I really like buying extreme fear on my long-term Bitcoin and for that reason I Would probably wait for 78 to 80k before adding to my long-term Bitcoin bags until then I'll just play alts of their key High time frame levels and there's certainly a few of those levels that we got today and it's why I actually made some moves looking at Bitcoin in terms of the trend you can see here it has started to break the

21 weekly EMA which is a key bull market band now the thing to note is that last summer we actually did break below for a few weeks before Confirming Above So if we do trade a little bit below it's not to say that the bull market is over from a Bitcoin perspective altcoins are in a completely different cycle but the Bitcoin bull market is technically still intact now of course if we started uh making lower lows and then lower lows again on the weekly and we probably won't know until we're around 80k then you could

assert that the bull market is probably over but all of this is going to In hindsight uh tops only form retroactively so you have to look probabilistically at whether you think a top is formed now certainly a local Top's formed I even spoke about this um in early January about the signs that Bitcoin was making a local top with the woff distribution scheme I don't know if you remember that actually was around Christmas boxing day I think uh around that period I did that video but that doesn't mean that the cycle the Ultimate Cycle top

is in I still think there is a chance uh later in the year that we see you know a big big big Rally from Bitcoin where you still see you know 120 to 140k but in the meantime there is a possibility that we trade a little bit below this 21 Ma and you actually see will Clemente here inversing the chart saying how people would say that this would look like a bullish chart um obviously though if if this pump continues that would be bearish for Bitcoin so actually looking at Bitcoin like this you kind of

get the feeling that it is going higher so in this case lower cuz it's an inverted chart just based on momentum but if even on this chart you haven't had a confirmed break uh a confirmed close Above This level or on the real chart not the inverted chart a confirmed close below this level so that's pretty much all you need to know about Bitcoin right now it still hasn't confirmed but it is flirting with danger Um if Bitcoin did go to 80 would Al get hammered yes they would keep getting hammered but I think at

a certain point Bitcoin dominance stops going up because a lot of the um front running of the selling on alts actually ends up taking place towards the beginning of a move so if Bitcoin did keep on going down most of the altcoin D risking actually happens in this period and then this period would actually be in my opinion mostly Bitcoin and you could actually See dominance drop if that is the case that's typically what does happen in these sell-offs TS react really aggressively in the beginning because people try and uh protect Capital quickly obviously alts

have their own problems though which we'll speak about today as well an interesting thing that I pointed out on my Twitter this morning was the fact that the S&P actually looks quite bullish so There is a slight dislocation right now between the sentiment of the S&P and the sentiment of Bitcoin in the crypto Market it it does make me wonder if the S&P did break Trend which it hasn't actually broken Trend since 2023 what would happen to crypto um I personally think crypto is leading in this case equities you do see these periods in the

market where crypto decorrelates uh so if if equities do exhibit weakness there's a strong chance that by the time That's priced into the& and the NASDAQ crypto is already starting to recover because I mean there's been many examples across the last few years of crypto actually front running these Equity sell-offs you basically have to view altcoins and Bitcoin as extensions of tech stocks so they're like levered tech stocks it's like longing apple on 20x Leverage that is essentially holding an altcoin so these positions are really reflexive the Smallest move in the stock market can trigger

a big sell-off and the smallest move to the upside can trigger a massive pump and that's definitely what we're seeing with this seller front running equities I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P drop 15 to 20% at some point in the next 6 months especially with all of this tariff stuff and I guess fears in in the macro Market however uh it still is in an uptrend so I still think it does go higher and continues to make new Highs and if it does drop 15% 10% I don't think that is the death blow

for crypto you might think of face value because crypto has already front run this it's already expecting I think downside and is preempting downside on equities and I'll explain why that's actually the case in a second here when I read out for's tweet which I think puts it into perfect words as to why there is a dislocation between expectations and fair market value at The moment so why is this happening let's touch on the reasons overall why the altcoin market looks so weak and why Bitcoin looks so weak the first reason of course is the

Tariff news it seems like the worst reactions for crypto so liquidation Cascade that we got a few weeks back and the Cascade that we got today are triggered by tariff news the market really just hates tariff news and uh the Market's been really really sensitive to things that Trump has come Out and said that he'll do it's kind of weird because Trump in so many ways is bullish for crypto in terms of the regulatory environment I mean we've never seen a pro crypto president and a pro crypto Congress and all the positive Bitcoin bills and

legislation that's coming for crypto but at the same time markets really hate uncertainty and Trump is pretty much the epitome of uncertainty because he wants to make big changes and markets don't like change They want constants they want absolutes uncertainty and the fear of change causes volatility in the market and this is why you're seeing knee-jerk reaction so this was the trigger for the latest drop but it isn't necessarily the root cause it's only one factor in in a much bigger piece now there's specific altcoin factors which have made alts perform worse than Bitcoin and

there are specific macro factors which are affecting Bitcoin which I'll touch on Now uh I'll read out for J's tweet as he does the best job of summarizing it he says what's happening in crypto right now is a resolution of the dislocation between expectations and fair value since the election in November this is something we discussed and warned on the Roundup on November 16th and ever since price has been flat slash down and there's no signs of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve which is very different versus the expectations that were previously Baked in it's because of

this concern for a potential dislocation that we've been on the defensive ever since the election after being disgustingly bullish in the leadup to it I even remember doing some videos about the Trump inauguration potentially being sell the news it's crazy that it did in fact end up being sell the news obviously the Trump mem coin thing uh kind of threw the market completely off base and made us all forget that that Was the sentiment leading into the inauguration the good news is this postelection premium is now being Unwound in fact we're at pre-trump levels now

so it's entirely being Unwound especially in alts the bad news is this is happening during a time of relative Equity strength as Traders it's crucial to I just want to make something clear by the way um Bitcoin hasn't fully been Unwound altcoins definitely have they're way below pre-trump levels even Salana but Bitcoin itself if you do look at the chart here has a little bit to go um back to the election it was like in the 70k at the time I think 75k and then it obviously ran up to 109k so there's a bit of

unwinding to go on bitcoin if you want to use the election as a basis but on altcoins obviously that they front ran and were way below uh election lows as Traders it's crucial to understand that markets are forward-looking and you always need to be comparing expectations Baked in versus reality this is important to understand markets are always looking forward to potential outcomes and the reason they kneejerk on a little bit of uncertainty is because they are baking in that uncertainty uh ahead of time that's why you know markets are adaptive especially a market like crypto

which is 24/7 it constantly adapts based on new information and uh calibrates based on the expectation of future outcomes anyway I'm sad to see The state of things here right now and hopefully not too many people were carried out here I do think that now a lot of this dislocation has been resolved that the worst is over but that is dependent on positive macro environment which I'm not sure of godspeed so I think this is a really apt tweet because he's right basically what's happened is there were expectations of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve there were

expectations of all This Pro crypto policy and although a lot of that is still happening it didn't happen right away and the market essentially front ran the Trump inauguration got really excited and we had this huge bit basically it was the North Star the North Star for the crypto markets was the Trump election now since Trump Trump's come in and we haven't got a strategic Bitcoin Reserve there's really no North Star anymore there's no I mean the Trump was such an obvious Reason to long you got to ask yourself what's the obvious reason to long

now there's macro uncertainty there's this tariff stuff there's uncertainty with equities potentially pulling back like people don't know what the North Star is there's no clear directionality there's no clear reason to Bid And when there's no clear reason to bid people simply sell to play defensive and that's one of the reasons why Bitcoin has had a drop there's no North Star anymore there's no Trump inauguration to look forward to and there's there was a dislocation between what actually happened and what people expected with the Strategic Bitcoin reserve and fundamentally this is the reason why we

are getting a dip in the market but that explains what's happening in Bitcoin what's happening in altcoins themselves well there's a few reasons why the dip for alts in general has been much much much worse I think the reason this selloff has been so Brutal is because people have lost hope hope is what keeps markets especially speculative markets like altcoins intact once hope is lost there's not much of a flaw because a lot of these products don't really have real revenue or real Believers most of these coins are being propped up by Traders you always

have to ask yourself who is actually buying this coin who would be willing to buy this coin at a future price and the reality is for many ults as it turns out no one No one's willing to buy but there's a lot of people willing to cash out and a lot of people willing to sell and for that reason there's been no flaw on the prices of many TS there aren't many real biders for a lot of these alts only speculators so the reason this selloff has been so brutal is because people have lost belief

in alt season people have lost belief in the crypto market and when you lose belief it's it's essentially like getting the rug pulled Out of the crypto market now there's no floor and prices just go down and down and down until you find a floor and you only find a floor on certain alts when demand kicks in so certain alts are going to do well and rebound they're the ones that that I've actually been buying right now that I'll speak about later in today's video uh these will find a flaw because there's real demand There's

real buyers where people will step in and buy heavily there's one coin that I bought a Lot of today because I personally believe in the coin intrinsically so I'm an example of uh a buyer that is stepping in and providing a floor for that coin many other alts don't have that though like many memes for example there are no Believers or whales stepping in with big Clips to defend price because they just don't believe in it and that's why some coins are on a path to zero now we already know that but you're definitely going

to see a lot Of alts literally at zero if they don't have that demand if they don't have real biders yes there'll be short squeezes yes there'll be bouncers when people close their shorts and and you see those bounces but they aren't real buyers it's people simply closing shorts or little squeezes here and there it's just Traders so the only coins that are really going to recover and do really really well out of this are the ones with real net buyers and uh I think I've found a few that have real net buyers which we'll

talk about today but you've got to be really wary of that when it comes to buying all coins in this environment and it explains why the selloff has been so bad on a lot of vaults and I won't go too deep into the underlying mechanics CU I did this yesterday in yesterday show if you watched it but uh the pump fund launch obviously caused a lot of allcoin dispersion and definitely contributed to A lot of capital leaving the space it opened the door for Bad actors it opened the door for Mass extractions which took billions

of dollars out of the market and meant that a lot of the quality products didn't receive the bids that maybe they should have so the launch of pump fund you can see here was pretty much directly correlated with the death of the altcoin market now I'm not blaming pump fun because in some ways pump fun is a knee-jerk reaction to the VC Centric Market that we've had but uh it definitely hasn't been a good thing for the market and it's why we never got a traditional s alt season you can also make arguments that 2021

was an outlier and that shouldn't even really be considered old season because of the crazy environment with all of the stimulus that we have seen the second reason fundamentally which I also talked about yesterday that altcoins have struggled this cycle is Because of the Bitcoin ETFs Bitcoin ETFs have seen a lot of inflow and because of that because of the proportion of ETF bidding versus traditional Bitcoin bidding on centralized exchanges there isn't a huge wealth effect from Bitcoin into large caps Mig caps small caps like we've seen in previous Cycles so instead bitcoin's just going

into the ETFs and it just stays in the tradire system versus the last cycle where money and even I did this right you'd buy Bitcoin On like binance for example then once youd twox your money you had these profits and you'd go and you'd play with them oh okay I put in 10k now I have 20K I'm going to go put that 10K into ethereum then you tox on ethereum and then you move down the risk curve and that was like a fun game to play and that's what created alt season you don't have that

this cycle people are just buying the ETFs that's it there's no correlation with the altcoin market so We wanted Mass adoption we wanted a bigger Bitcoin but that came at a cost and it came at the cost of the altcoin market essentially now there are still obviously products that altcoins that are going to perform really well because they have product Market fit but we're entering this Paradigm now where there's no more alt Seasons there's no more altcoins go up only we're entering a paradigm where you really need to be selected about the SS that you

hold Trade and make sure that you're actually in products with product Market fit and very strong communities and that answer that question that I posed earlier in the video of who is actually going to buy this coin and who's going to buy at a higher price generally speaking if if you just use that as a framework right and every time you go to buy an all ask yourself who's actually going to buy this off me if you can answer that question and you have a good answer for It strong chance you're actually in a good

altcoin I can't answer that for most alts in the market I really can't if i go through coin gecko I I would struggle there are a few where occasionally you know I'll look at it and I'll be like look I I can see why people would buy this you know hyper liquid I can see why people would buy that it's a real Revenue generating uh product Sonic right now I can see why people would buy that because you need It for the air drop farming that's going to go all the way until June there are

other products as well tow you need to buy tow to stake it and um is one of the leading AI coins so there are coins where where I look at them I'm like okay there is someone that is probably going to come in and buy this coin but a lot a lot of others like I look at a lot of memes on like who is actually going to buy this who is going to buy and we'll get a meane reversion on whiff right we Will because that's what happens in markets but who's realistically going to

buy and hold wh I'm not sure whereas like an rwa coin like checks or Ono like I can see why you know it it it appeals to Big institutions it appeals to Big funds it appeals to um potentially when they launch you know future products people that want to get exposure to the upside of those products so when you start thinking about theet market like this it becomes much easier to pick the Alts that you're holding long term because no longer are you thinking in terms of speculation you're thinking in terms of fundamentals and that

framework of asking yourself who is actually going to buy this coin where is the demand coming from helps you do that um and there's one more reason before I get into uh whether I think it's a bottom and what alts I bought and all that sort of stuff why the uh altcoin Market has been doing so badly and that is because There are a lot of extractions in the market as AR Paul points out but but there aren't enough daily fresh inflows to offset extractions so there aren't that many liquid funds in the market the

majority of the the VC Market is comprised of early stage VC basically what this means is you know you get in cheaper in a seed round um you have some sort of lockup and then you know the token launchers at a certain valuation you're able to sell but like even the Strongest new launchers like a be chain which by the way I think could actually do well in the short term but I'm just giving using it as an example uh there needs to be buyers right there needs to be people as I said before that

are willing to step in and buy there needs to be demand at let's say the $2 billion valuation it launches up if not well they're certainly going to be demand for VCS to sell cuz they go in at 50 mil so they're going to be offloading and Unless there's demand at two Bill price is going to keep going down until you find equilibrium and for a lot of these coins equilibrium is not at two bill or 1.5 or 1 or 500 it might be 200 mil so that's why you get a chart where a coin

launches the 2 Bill and ends up at 200 mil you know it goes down 90% it's just cuz there's not enough net inflows to satisfy uh demand but there's a lot of demand to sell because VCS want to just cash their money make a bag and reinvest Elsewhere now this works in an environment where there's more new capital coming in compared to uh new launchers however most of the new capital coming in went into pump fund got wrecked it was extracted by grifters and now those retail left the market because they got burned so now

there isn't enough Capital there's not enough speculative Capital even to prop up a lot of these new launchers which is why a lot of these new launchers are really Really struggling and ultimately I think we need more liquid funds in the space uh but liquid funds aren't going to come in and buy your trash off you liquid funds are going to also look to to have an information asymmetry Edge and get into protocols at an early stage and then Market them so they become much bigger later so even then that's not going to solve the

problem but definitely there is a skew uh between the liquid markets and the private Markets and you know what Nature's healing because what happens eventually right is that the new launchers do so bad that the VCS stop investing or valuations come down and the VCS find an equilibrium where they are willing to invest in projects and that means launch prices also come down so this is capitalism you know markets are efficient they're not totally efficient at all times but they'll end up reaching an equilibrium where the market and the VC demand are calibrated and that

has been skewed for a long time but over the next 12 months we're going to see that calibrate which actually opens up a lot of opportunity if you are a VC I think because a lot of VCS are going to blow up I think a lot of really struggle this cycle everyone thinks VC's uh like they kind of have a bad name because they're viewed as the extractors and although that's true to an extent um a lot of them have struggled like ZK sink's Underwater Leia Zero's underwater like they've barely made returns might have made

like 3x this cycle versus like 50 X's last cycle so a lot of them are really struggling and we're going to see a lot of VCS to solve but as I said Nature's healing and um you come out the other side and the more serious players stick around and valuations recalibrate and a lot of opportunities open up as well in the new launch market because tokens launch at lower values which Allows for Better Price discovery on these coins So eventually it'll even out and uh the market just will continue to adapt but it's a bit

of a painful process until we get there and that process is very evident when you look at the altcoin charts right now and it's one of the reasons why uh the Market's struggling there's just not enough new inflows to match the verion in the market now let's speak more about the current price action do I think it's a Bottom well Rand does Rand says we are at or near a bottom and I definitely get this sentiment I think although there is obviously that you know 80k level that we discussed and the potential for a confirmed

breakdown here there is at least some compelling reason to suggest that this could be a local bottom at least in the short term starting to form and that's purely just based on the fear in the market so for the first time we actually have the fear and greed index In extreme fear for Bitcoin we haven't had this in months I've been checking on this regularly um yesterday was neutral last week was neutral this is the first day we have extreme fear on bitcoin and I would say really really extreme fear in the altcoin market as

well with the altcoin season index going from altcoin season to almost Bitcoin season I actually think once you get down here that's the best place to buy alts like some alts might be okay to buy now but If we ever get down here here that's when you'd probably sell the farm uh to buy alt coins and then just reverse trade it cuz eventually it'll go back to alt season like this always happens right it goes Bitcoin this has been oscillating for years it's going to be no different this time if you're in the ride alts

if you can buy alts down here uh the ride alts will always make money up here but it's just become harder to actually pick the right assets this Cycle but in terms of whether we're near or out of bottom I can't say but I definitely see why around saying this and for that reason I have added some positions today because there is a chance this is deviation below range low and we'll end up uh picking back up and reclaiming having an acceptance back within the range at 91k and then this will be a great buying

opportunity but obviously there are no expectations there I do want to talk about my Slightly longer term views on the market though before I pivot back to my short-term views on the market and what I've been doing today I personally believe and I got a bit of hate for this on Twitter um but I can probably explain it better on YouTube I personally believe we're in the anger phase now this Wall Street cheat sheet is kind of misconstrued because this is doesn't represent the overall cycle necessarily if we are in this new paradigm where There's

no fouryear cycle I don't think it's a fouryear cycle anymore you can have multiple of these you can have one of these every six months right so I think the local cycle is done and I think we're entering a new cycle and in this new cycle many of the old altcoins will be irrelevant and there'll be new altcoins and new narratives and some established ones which we'll speak about today that will do really really well and this will obviously also be related To bitcoin price action so I think on altcoins overall and the cycle overall

to me I think we're around the anger phase now of course this is very like subjective it's not an objective measure of the market but the reason I say anger is cuz a lot of people are angry they're pissed off they're complaining if I look at anxiety denial panic I don't think any of these really match where we currently are I think in fact a lot of people are already in depression so I Think what comes next after this move Settles maybe it'll settle lower maybe it'll end up consolidating around here and and and eventually

end up recovering no matter where it settles I think slightly longer term from a cycle perspective we are entering in my opinion the depression phase just my opinion I don't think we're in Hope yet I don't think we're in denial I think we're a little bit worse than that in terms of the severity of the move this Depression phase will happen once the low is in and once the low is in the market will chop sideways for a period of time it'll Shake A lot of people out and that last ShakeOut will lead to the

birth of a new minicycle where select olds perform really well and Bitcoin performs really well again now if I had to guess in terms of timelines I think this will play out over summer this year so summer in the northern hemisphere so um June July August and we will see Heading into Q3 Q4 a quite a big recovery on bitcoin and alts so my framework now is we'll put in a bottom over the next couple of weeks weeks it could be as soon as today it could be I don't know or it could be in

a week or so and we go slightly lower and maybe tap that 80k zone once again I don't know but we I think in terms of timeline we'll put in a low within the next couple of weeks um we'll probably have some mean reversion we'll get a big Bounce at some point you know we could get a bounce at a couple days if the low is in today but we will get a big bounce at some point um obviously on that bounce you can readjust positions if you hadn't done that already um and then I

think the market consolidates goes through this depression phase for a while until coming out the other side much stronger now I don't think will come out until post summer really really strong of course we could still have a Little run um in between now and summer like that's not to say the Market's dead until Q3 there are going to be opportunities to make money there are going to be bounces there they're going to be all sorts of things happening over the next few months but in terms of that big Bitcoin new all-time high and uh

another big altcoin run I think we're probably now looking at the end of the year and now if you ask me that 3 months ago would have said we're looking maybe At Q2 now I'm saying we're looking more towards Q3 just cuz the everything's been pushed back so it's not a matter of flip-flopping it's a matter of just seeing the signs seeing the price action seeing the sentiment and getting the new macro data and recalibrating based on where I think we currently are in the cycle right now um no one can predict the markets so

you'll never know when a top is in and you'll never know exactly where you are in the cycle until it's Already happened it's a retroactive game but you can go in with a framework and a rough idea of of when things might improve and that's the rough framework that I have slightly longer term truthfully though it doesn't really matter too much whether we you're in depression anger disbelief Panic uh because some of the alts that that I'm accumulating the way I'm structuring my portfolio I'll speak about how I'm doing that in a couple of minutes

it doesn't Really rely on this to play out exactly uh the way that I'm trading at the moment looking at acceptance into back into high time frame uh support levels so reclaims and looking at uh clear tests of major High time frame support levels on alts that kind of protects me against even needing to play the cycle because I have technical parameters in place and for the coins that I am buying spot maybe not totally based off the technicals because there are a few Outliers those are coins that I think have a marginal buyer somewhere

out there they're coins that I think will have demand coming from somewhere like that buy demand that I spoke about before that's going to hold them in good stead irrespective of their ta but there's only maybe three or four coins in the market which I think fit that bill right now for me and we'll discuss a few of them today and those coins I'm actually not so worried about whenever They run they run but I believe that they have the right product Market fit and they have the potential um to have future demand when the

market does pick up so I don't need to time exactly when the market is is is going to pick up okay so Rand says where ad or near bottom for me I don't even really care if we're at or near a bottom because my rule is to buy extreme fear and this is Extreme fear so we don't need to predict whether Bitcoin is going to close below The range and and and head Trend towards 80 or we don't need to predict to whether we're going to deviate in two days and end up reclaiming because for

me today was Red Enough the liquidation Cascade was big enough and the discounts on some alts were big enough to make some moves as long as the technicals aligned so I did a bit of shopping today I made some of my biggest Buys in around a month and uh I'll go through some of the alt coins that are that I'm buying Or looking at because I'm not being rash I'm not aping in like a crazy person I'm being very selective about what I'm buying the first coin that I bought today is hey Anon there are

some amazing things coming for Anon I don't know if they're announced yet uh but later in the week There's a big product update that's coming I've got a podcast with Daniel also coming that's going to be really really good you'll see why I'm fundamentally bullish on this I think Once that podcast releases because you'll understand what he's actually building I had a chance to hang out with him over the weekend and um learned a lot about his vision and I just I'm just backing the man I think there's uh there's huge potential with the vision

for this I mean it's the chbt of crypto essentially is what Anon is it's an interface for all trading all defi um you won't even really need to use exchanges anymore you'll just go onto The app on the app store on your phone and trade and that's a cool use case that is product Market fit exemplified now obviously they need to execute it's not going to be easy it's a difficult product to build but I think they have the tools to do it and I think Daniela is uh the right guy and he a Visionary

to actually be able to pull it off and for that reason uh I've been buying more I'm already an advisor to Anon but I've been buying a lot more than my advisory Value on the liquid market and uh the reason I'm doing that is because I think after the big selloff a it's it's shown relative strength but B uh I think there a bit of a dislocation here between market cap and the potential of the technology and I think AI is also going to come back at some point so I want exposure to a couple

AI coins so hey anon's definitely one of them and that's why I I added to that today um with a decent amount of size I made some big Buyers today and look if it does go lower if it goes to $4 I don't really care I'll buy more at $4 for me this is a long-term play this isn't a short-term trade you obviously can trade the chart and if you want to do that and if you're more of a Trader trade with inv validations I'm just you know telling you how I'm doing it for me

this is a fundamental play I'm not so worried about the TA and it's one of the very few coins that's in that category for me Right now because the rest of the market um I am you know paying a lot of attention to TA but obviously the bigger the coin and hang an not centralized exchanges it's on a few but like not the big big ones the bigger the coin you know the more centralized exchanges it's on the more ta actually has efficacy because more people are looking at the levels right which makes them a

self-fulfilling prophecy so the other AI coin that I'm looking at um I haven't Bought yet but I'll tell you the scenarios that I'll buy now is to I think to as a bit of a safer so to speak AI play is quite a good one it actually looks pretty good you have your higher lows now there's this low which I think at 340 that would be a great bid Zone there are two levels I would buy tow 340 you can set your inval below this week at 300 you know inval around 298 um if you

want to have a spot inv validation if you're doing low leverage same thing But you need to be a bit more careful with your entry in that case or if you don't to bid this level you can wait for uh acceptance back above $400 and this would be a nice Zone and you might get that diagonal break which takes us higher to 500 600 this is going to be a play that makes you a 5x but as a as an altcoin that I want to be in for a 2 three Forex to I think fits

the bill and and has strong fundamentals behind it and I've also been you know investing in The ecosystem and all that sort of stuff over the past couple of weeks so you'll notice I'm very focused on specific narratives right now because they're the ones that I think will come back and do well rwa as well I think will do well let me pull up the checks chart right now because this one's interesting um we actually got the wick down to a major support level this morning but this literally lasted for like 5 seconds I think

it was just someone being stupid On um on salana but if you did manage to catch that good job now I think this is a potential Zone where you can lad in if you want long-term checks 32 and 25 of the two zones to ladder in obviously the invalidation zone that I spoke a a lot about on the channel also in the Discord was 40 so a lot of you would have cut including myself a portion of my position was cut at 42 and then now I'm looking at re buing a bit at 32 and

again at 25 that's my plan with check so Rwa AI still bullish on the leaders but not longing everything you know only longing things with very solid fundamentals and things that I intrinsically believe in it and I'm ultimately willing to hold down so if you're buying spot altcoins right now you're basically accepting that okay you don't know where the bitcoin's going to reclaim you're buying almost mentally willing to see it draw down further if you're buying spot Today that's what you're telling yourself uh if not you're better off just trading and I'll show you what

the trading setups right now look like Sonic is another one that intrinsically I think is interesting because obviously you need it to farm the airdrop a lot of the LPS are reliant on Sonic now I think this has a fair bit of sell pressure around the $1 Zone we saw it reject off that earlier but I think a mean reversion back to $85 to $1 Can happen quite quick on the log ichimoku Cloud it's approaching the bottom this is another indicator a bit more of a high time frame moving average that that I like to

use it did break down below the money noodle so you have two kind of bid zones I think 65 and then again at 60 if you get there um that's your that's your lower bid Zone but what you can also do is uh open up the hourly chart and look at a potential pivot so this is the low and if you get A reclaim here you can trade that and potentially look at the 1H hour flip of the money noodle back into 84 Cent so this is an interesting one to trade I know Paradise have

been trading it a lot in the Discord uh salana is another one that I added some spot today uh at this level here around $128 I believe it was but this is a major support level you've got inval below obviously if you're using leverage you want to be really tight with that entry spot anywhere in This region at support you've you've got inv Val below at around $108 to $110 out of it's going to go that much lower than 120 honestly so this is that's just what I think so for me this is like a

very strong High time frame bid Zone on salana and then there are coins like hyper liquid which I fundamentally believe in but I don't like the PA so salana is at a high time frame level right I felt better buying this this morning um than I do buying hyper liquid Which is just broken down so for a coin like this I have cash ready to enter but what I want is acceptance back above the $19 level over the next few days so might look like this it might you know uh fill the wick to the

bottom come back up retest consolidate happy to buy a bit higher even around $20 just to get back into that range so a lot of ss right now I am waiting for a reclaim of their support resistance levels so I'm not really bidding any coins that recently Broke High time frame structure there are like a couple exceptions in the market where I'll actually do that but the majority of coins I'm waiting for them to either hit a high time frame support resistance level like we saw on salana um or I'm simply waiting for a show

of strength and Reclamation like hype Ena even towel you can simply wait maybe pay a little bit of a premium but um get uh an official confirmation back on their High time frame uh support Level resistance flipped back into support so I don't think there's a need to catch knives right now yes it's a good day in my opinion to DCA into some stuff you really fundamentally believe in for your long-term High conviction spot portfolio but is your very long-term portfolio on your trading portfolio even on your medium-term spot portfolio I think there's no need

to catch knives in the market and you can wait for reclaims and just be a little Bit patient and see what ends up playing out in the market I don't want to blow all my load today uh trying trying to you know time a bottom because I'm also aware of what I spoke about earlier in the show that there is this Gap at 78 to 80 so I want to be a little bit prepared and a little bit pragmatic and not um blow my entire load on uh bu of alts today and only see them

bleed out further so the market is not about you know absolutes like oh this is the Bottom so I'm loading up it's about no you know if there are select alts with good setups that you you believe in you can take those setups and then uh you can be patient with others there are other coins which I like like hyper liquid and Ena but I'm just waiting for them to reclaim um levels that I'd be interested in buying like Ena for example you have the support level if we do go down to 35 I would

bid there by the way it's the level that I would bid Or you can wait for a reclaim uh 46 pay a little bit of a premium but have this CPP and handle which will potentially play out and bring you back to 70 cents if the market recovers so this kind of takes the guesswork out of it at least playing off momentum I think uh the worst thing you can do I think in this market is catch knives and lastly the final thing I'm doing right now is keeping tabs on what is showing relative strength

so l1s have shown a lot of Relative strength if the market rebounds a lot of them are going to be first I'm thinking like the se's the suis the sonics the 3s salana of the 4S's um these will probably have strong mean reversions you can also see that uh derivative tokens AI agents privacy like a lot of utility stuff is in the frame to balance quite strongly if you want to hone it in even further than just a broad look at narratives you can actually look at where money's flowing And right now it's clear that

bass Sonic arbitrum and Bearer have the strongest inflows so bar and Sonic are probably the two most obvious networks that you can look at I'm still doing a lot of farming on Sonic so I didn't actually drisk my Phantom on the breakdown or you know it's called Sonic now because I have a lot of just farming and I'm fine to you know accept a slight draw down on some of my LPS because I'm earning you know High APR I'm going to get an air Drop in June and I think because the air drop's still quite

far away there's still a bit of a passive bid that's happening for Sonic which answers that question which I asked before you know is there going to be a buyer of this coin that is a really important thing to ask yourself and I think for Sonic the answer is probably yes which is why I continue to be a buyer into the support levels that I discussed before um and it's not all doom and gloom guys there Are still opportunities in this market uh there are lots of dislocations right now which create opportunities like I think

anon's a slight dislocation I don't think people have realized what they're building versus their market cap I think what happens in a bearish market like this is because no one's reacting to Good News projects will make good announcements or there'll be really strong developments but price won't react whereas in November a lot of these Tokens would have already just flown because people are salivating waiting for good news and then aping but right now even coins with the most bullish announcements they aren't being aped because people don't have the confidence to put money into the market

so there's lots of dislocations or asymmetries which you can take advantage of right now and that's certainly something that I'm doing so it's certainly not Doom and Gloom there's still opportunities and Danielle has summed it up here um he has a philosophy as a builder that he just wants to outperform outperform in Tech outperforming working hours outperforming ideas outperforming deliverables you're the exact same you can't affect the market right now you can't control the uncontrollables all you can control is what's in front of you and that's outperforming with your portfolio outperforming in terms of upskilling

Outperforming in terms of ideas outperforming in terms of networking whatever it is for you whether it's becoming a better Trader whether it's doing more research whether it's doing more networking whether it's creating crypto content whatever it is all you can do is control what you can control and as a content creator that's my real Focus right now I'm waking up I want to do I can control making an amazing video hopefully you thought this video was Amazing if you did Smash the like button and subscribe but all I can control is making this a video

that I'm proud of right all I can control is writing a thread that I'm proud of all I can control is researching ecosystems that I'm interested in and being disciplined in the market instead of relying on motivation I've been digging really deep into Sonic I've been digging really deep into defi again I can control that I can't control whether the market NES but I definitely can control what how I upskill how I continue to grow my brand how I continue to grow my portfolio how I execute on trades how I become a better Trader I

can control all of that right now so it's not really the market to run away I know some of you might feel like running away it's actually the market to continue getting better and better and better and better CU When the market does turn and it will inevitably turn you'll be in a much Better position than all these tourists who are just leaving the market now and capitulating um which uh I really understand personally because there's so much opportunity during these times that you'd be mad uh to just stick around for the bullish markets and

and not be around for markets like this where all these dislocations present opportunities so that's just my opinion and uh if you do want to join me on that Journey I'll Be here tomorrow as well and the day after for some uh more Banger content for you guys to help guide you through this market and I'm going to continue grinding every single day out performing in what I can control I'll see you in the next one have a lovely rest of your day peace out guys guys