hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the social risk if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the crypts premium at into the ctv. com where you can of course get access to this indicator the social risk is actually a really interesting risk metric to track because it also helps us identify whether retail is actually coming back to the same extent they were here in 2021 or if it just feels like they are because the price is going up right now this is the social risk metric and it basically varies from between 0o to one so whenever it's at zero it's historically low risk and at one historically high risk you can see that even in 2021 the social risk metric topped out at the first Peak not the second Peak so it's just yet another indicator that showed that you know a ail was sort of the more obvious top and then November sort of willed itself to a slightly higher high but you even had Divergence of social interest in Bitcoin right you had a lower highs in terms of social interest back then uh even though the price went to a higher high now what's really interesting is that we often get uh you know we'll see the social risk go up obviously when the price goes up but it still isn't what it was in 2021 um in fact you know if you look at where the social risk just went to it went you know between the 04 to 0. 5 wristband which is exactly where it went back in April right the 04 to 0.
5 wristband we have not seen the social risk go above that and arguably it's for a number of reasons right could be due to uh the fact that the FED still has not started quantitative easing uh it could be due to the fact that Bitcoin Domin still hasn't really dropped that much but historically it doesn't really drop until sometime in the post having year anyways um could be due to the fact that maybe interest rates are a little too high maybe they're still above the neutral rate and so uh that's being that's becoming a drag on the economy but the the the long of the Y curve would not support that uh because you know ever since the FED started cutting the long of the Y curve has been going up which is what we said was likely going to happen and usually when the longin goes up it's a dragon risk asset and if there's a dragon risk assets then people just don't tune in so you're not really seeing that move up now the social risk again is made up of you know new subscribers to crypto YouTube channels views to those crypto YouTube channels followers to crypto analysts on X exchanges on X and layer ones on X in fact if you look at YouTube views to various crypto YouTube channels you can see that this 7-Day SMA basically spiked to the same level it spiked to back in March of 2024 so again you know and it's not that it can't ever go up if you zoom in though I mean it just shows you that as soon as price starts going down or more likely as soon as price stops going up people just immediately tune out they just don't care anymore okay now the reason why this is important if you look back at 2021 you can see how many people came into the cryptoverse right and and how back then we were even getting 4 million views a day across these channels whereas so far all we've seen this cycle is occasional spikes to two million views a day we had a spike to 2 million views a day back in November 2022 March 2024 and then again in December 2024 but other than those spikes and also May of 2022 we have not seen any sustained durable uh you know views that are pushing back towards 3 million 4 million a day for all these crypto YouTube channels furthermore you would assume that from one cycle to another views should actually grow not just reach the same levels right like if you were to look at at say um you know 2019 compared to 2021 you know it was it completely dwarfed what was going on in 2019 so you would expect that if it's going to repeat that eventually these views should look relatively small uh but they don't look like that right now still suggesting that retail has not really returned despite the fact that people think they have and and again it could be that maybe the fed's cutting too soon maybe they actually haven't hit maybe maybe the neutral rate is higher than they think uh but the reason why this stuff's important is because you know in order to get the alt season that people want where Bitcoin dominance really goes down uh you need to see retail return now if you look at at at Bitcoin dominance here on this chart right excluding stable coins and then you overlay uh the social risk you can see that the only way you're really going to see Bitcoin dominance drop a lot like it did in 2017 and in 2021 uh the Y this that yellow line or sorry it's the it's the green line right that to see it drop here in 2017 or here in 2021 the only way you're going to see it is if retail Interest really starts to Surge and sustain it and it just hasn't done that yet um now the Counterpoint though is that in uh December of 2020 we also saw you know social risk Surge and then it got a pullback but it only pulled back to about 35 or so this time it's actually pulled back uh back to the 0. 2 to3 range so again if you're wondering why the altcoin market uh on their Bitcoin pairs are are still kind of struggling they're not really seeing that move that you want it could just simply be due to the fact that retail hasn't hasn't really yet returned uh perhaps how many people have thought they have okay and again this just sticking to the data uh I know some of you guys are want me to track Tik Tok and Instagram and I'd like to do that in the future as well and hopefully we can add that on here but it's true though that if you look at at YouTube views they're still tracking at much lower levels than what they were tracking at um in in 202 in 20121 at least on average right now occasionally you you do get some spikes um like if you go look at at uh uh YouTube views here and you instead of looking at say like a um a 7-Day moving average which is what this is if you go over here to the moving average tab you click on that and just change it to none you'll see that there have been some days where it actually spiked up uh quite a bit right it maybe even went all the way up to the um uh to that four million level let's see if we can get this to load here it's adding in a lot of uh a lot of data here which is why I think it's struggles but there you can see you know there was at least a spike up to kind of the similar levels that it hit in 2021 so the spike was at least bigger than March 2024 but it still hasn't been sort of a durable Trend and I I think that's the thing like if you look at a a 30-day moving average of this metric you can see that in 2021 right it's been a long time at at much higher levels than it is today and I I think that's the reason why you've seen dominance come down a little bit for Bitcoin but you haven't really seen a drop because retail still hasn't arrived exactly like they did back in last cycle the Counterpoint of course is last two cycles retail didn't arrive until sometime during the post having year right 2017 and 2021 and so that's why I said I think you know there's been a lot of cost for All Season those have largely been um unfounded as as Bitcoin dominance was eventually going to hit 60% which is exactly what it did right Bitcoin dominance did go to 60% and we'll try to follow it from there but that is the social risk it's made up of those five metrics we're just going to provide an update on it once a month just to kind of see where the market is is there you know is there really interest uh or is it is it just more the same thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe crypt.
