Best of #BeyondGrowth 2023 - Timothée Parrique

there's a rumor that is picking up speed in the media affirming that it is possible to both produce more while polluting less some people call it green growth this rumor is not only a rimmer it's also believed deeply embedded within our current environmental strategies sdg 8 aims to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation the Paris agreement mentions promoting economic growth while responding to climate change the European green deal speaks of economic growth decoupled from resource use during the opening plenary Roberta metzola told us that the objective was to grow sustainably and Ursula Von delay and

called for a new European growth model problem the idea of an economic growth fully decoupled from nature is a fairy tale it is scientifically [Applause] it is scientifically baseless and it is distracting us from more effective transition strategies so let's talk about decoupling the coupling is a concept used to describe the relation between economic activities and its ecological implications to make economic growth truly sustainable you need to do five things number one you need to absolutely decouple production and consumption relative decoupling is not enough because total footprint keeps increasing number two you need to do

that from all environmental pressures not only carbon but material Footprints freshwater use biodiversity loss air pollution everything number three you need to do all of that wherever these happens regardless whether that's on your national territory or abroad number four you need to do all of that at a pace oh at a pace that is sufficiently fast to avoid ecological collapse number five you need to do all of that and maintain that decoupling over time because yes it can easily recouple so I repeat if you want green growth you need to absolutely decouple production and consumption

from all environmental pressures wherever these happen at a pace that is sufficiently fast to avoid ecological collapse and you need to maintain that decoupling of a Time that green growth has never been achieved anywhere on Earth and I haven't seen any convincing evidence showing that it could if you if you believe in green growth the burden of proof is on you and you need to show us that these five things are possible waiting for that and we've been waiting long enough we may want to start working on a sustainability transition that is actually feasible at

this point some will say that there's been some decoupling here and there especially in Europe and so perhaps maybe if this and that the coupling will very soon happen so let's look at what some people describe as a success story of green growth here concerning greenhouse gas emissions here's the evolution of territorial emissions in 28 Urban countries first comments in case that's not obvious enough these reductions are very very and to be mathematically precise very very very tiny calling it green would be like me saying I've done a diet after losing 200 grams it's tiny

and it's concentrated during a few years especially years marked by a significant slowdown of economic growth that is quite a twist the data supposedly demonstrating that economic growth can be green actually shows the precise opposite the best way to green growth is to take growth away so let's say we want to reduce emissions by 55 percent before 2030. looking at the current rates of coupling between GDP and carbon the only way of reaching that objective would be to degrow GDP by between -1 and minus two percent per year and that is to achieve an objective

termed only in carbon only in territorial emissions and not taking into account Equity if you want to take that in that means you will do much more and the numbers can be discussed and I'm sure we'll spend the whole day doing that but the logic is clear producing and consuming more makes it more difficult to reduce ecological footprint this is true for emissions and it's even truer for other environmental pressures where still intensely coupled with GDP so I repeat whatever technology we have it is easier and faster to reduce ecological footprint in a situation where

levels of production and consumption decrease and you know what if technological progress speeds up ah great it means we'll reduce emissions even faster but it feels irresponsibly foolish to bet the survival of humanity on a highly improbable Miracle predicted by the Obscure models of a handful of economists so here's a more realistic strategy for Europe d-growth to a steady state economy economic growth has brought us in a state of ecological overshoot considering current and expected rates of coupling there is no way we can get back into safe planetary boundaries without downscaling production and consumption therefore

if we want to reduce environmental pressures if we want to achieve environmental targets there is no way of avoiding a temporary phase of de-growth see this as a kind of macroeconomic diet for biophysically obese economies once this is done and that's phase three the size of the economy can fluctuate around the steady state you can produce a bit more you can produce a bit less depending on by capacity the important thing over the long term is that the economy should never overshoot by capacity nor undershoot decent living standards the ultimate goal is to decouple well-being

from environmental pressures not GDP from carbon well-being from environmental pressures we want to move or stay in the green Corner that is not green in the upper left corner let's say where you have high quality of life low footprint this is the objective but we must also realize we're not all starting from the same place High income countries in the upper right corner need to degrow that's the reduced strategy in doing so they will free up ecological space for other less privileged countries to build productive capacity to satisfy unmet needs and to shift towards more

sustainable means of need satisfaction temporary degrowth and the global North temporary growth and the global South then both meeting at a sustainable steady state securing well-being for all within planetary boundaries so in the end my message is this the story of the coupling is reassuring it's a don't worry everything is fine everything is going to be okay kind of thing to say and this is precisely why that story is dangerous as the planet is getting nightmarishly worse the Fable of green growth is acting as a kind of macroeconomic greenwashing My worry is that we're losing

precious time arguing that maybe one day perhaps if this is that the coupling could happen in the meantime we are merely tinkering with a system that should be radically transformed fact is rich countries today still look like sea Souls when GDP goes up nature goes down the real question is which one do you really want to save foreign