Mark Halperin on Why He Thinks Trump Will Win and the Left’s Mental Collapse

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interviews with the people to whom they did it and presents it in a way that will shock you and that will challenge your understanding of American democracy only on TCN it debuts October 21st six episodes every Monday go to Tucker carlson.com we highly recommend So where like where are we so we're three I think three weeks out today what's what's the state of the race well people say it's going to be close for sure I don't agree with that I think it could be one one of them could win easily and I think today that's

more likely to be Trump all the variables that you would look at to say who's going to win Point towards Trump with four big Exceptions that I think I know is what the Democrats relying on so barring these four things coming together I think Trump will win and I think he might win easily um but she could still win number one is abortion yeah just don't know uh how big a vter will be now I say to people why wouldn't that be showing up in the polls now why would that be a secret but the

reality is there's a there's a a a an emotion to that issue as you know politics is a bad Emotion more than anything else there's an emotion to that issue that may be bigger than is currently measured number two is so but to be clear that's not showing up in the public polls right now well I mean by definition it's not showing up in in the two places you'd look for one is in the horse race she's not way ahead in the horse race and number two when we ask people what's the most important issue

to you abortion is well behind the economy inflation Immigration but uh but we've seen it's electoral power and we know that Donald Trump thinks it's a big issue because he's struggled to to neutralize it he's not doing that for fun he's doing that because he sees the same data that there's a power to this issue that may be beyond the current measurements that's number one number two is simply is the gender gap just the the um the the the reality that women vote more than men and again they may it connects To abortion but it's

not just about abortion because women don't like Donald a lot of women don't like Donald Trump that may just power a a victory three is her her ground game right the the mechanical process her campaign is run a chair the chair of her campaign is someone who grew up as a field person I don't think that's ever happened in a ma major presidential campaign before and they have way more money and president TR Trump has gone out of his way to Demonize early voting trying to change it now but the mechanics of that if it

is in fact close people say they could be worth three points three points could well be significantly bigger yeah uh and then lastly is is the notion that he has a ceiling that if it if the third party vote is very low and it's much more likely to be low like it was in 20 than high like it was in 16 from the Libertarians and the greens and and uh Cornell West then it may be that he Can't get above 47% that this simply what you call Trump fatigue or January 6 whatever you want to

call it puts off limits to him some number of Voters that that she may in a two effectively a two-person race in the seven states may be able to get to 48 49 and he can't those four things are what give Democrats hope that they can win but in my reporting over the last week Republicans are not are not measuring The drapes and picking the cabinet but pretty close to it not at the level they were at the convention when when Joe Biden was still their opponent but there's extreme confidence that they're going to take

the house take the Senate take the White House Democrats are somewhere between worried and freaking out and her conduct and her capabilities as a candidate are not reassuring them if they were honest about it they would say as some of them have started to say How could we have dumped Joe Biden for someone who has a few advantages over him but has many of the same problems and by the way some additional problems of their own and I think they recognizing that when you choose a candidate like that you're taking a bit of a risk

and the risk may not just may not pay off for them so on on what basis are they evaluating the race like what polls are both sides people you listen to the Smart people um with predictive success over time like what are they looking at well they're looking at the reality that the race may be back as some some people told me immediately after she became the nominee we may looking at a situation where she's back to where the part's back to where they were when Biden was the nominee before the debate okay before the

debate he had one Electoral College path which was to win the three great lake states in the Nebraska congressional district and that's it no one's ever won when they had one Electoral College path it's you know margin of area but not impossible but they were have to be all in on that because Biden was not going to win the four Sun Bel Battlegrounds she's edged back closer to that okay she she may be able to win them or or one or two of them but it's possible that those are going to be as off limits

to her eventually as they were to to Biden and She's weaker in the Great Lake States than he is so if you look at what what if you look at the private data and where things stand these races are close and if it's if it's within two points if Trump has consistently has a two-point lead or a three-point lead or a four-point lead does that mean he has to win the state it doesn't but it's the consistency that that has come in the last couple weeks in both parties data where where she has come down

and he has Come up a little bit that make them worried that she simply hasn't done enough to win her problem is I say the P problem of of policy people just sus the undecided voters just don't understand what she's about and she is not done they some of them find it insulting how little she's explained what she's about and we really don't know I've known her a long time I've covered her a long time I've studied her positions and and her public policy engagement I don't really Know what she stands for I don't really

know what she do as president I don't really know what she believes in or why she's running and you contrast this with Trump where even his enemies can tell you right away what he stands for what he would do in a second term at least the big picture and his problem is personality and he's done almost as little to address that issue as she's done to address hers and that means I'm I'm amazed people have said For so long no one so many people in the electorate don't want Trump or Biden they want a third

choice you don't really hear that now as nearly as much but but it's it's it's almost as true not as true because she satisfies a lot of Democrats who are not satisfied with Biden but a lot of Democrats and certainly a lot of Independents and centrists and moderates they don't like either of these choices and that that's part of what Democrats are looking at Because I think in the end as much as she's not satisfied uh people's desire for knowledge about her they won't vote for Trump they just simply don't want four more years of

trump and she's turned to that message in the last 24 hours the way Biden did now I don't know if she'll stick with but she's now emphasizing this notion of we can't go back to somebody this unstable and this um and this unattractive in terms of Personality changing your personality is Hard well it's probably impossible and any attempt to do it comes off as false so there's of course a cost and a risk but coming up with a platform is not hard you just sit in a room with your pollsters and your policy guys and

like pick three topics and stake out positions that contrast with your opponents and like why why haven't they done that yeah a lot of the questions about things she's doing and not Doing um are Mysteries even to a lot of Democrats even some people close to her you've named one but why is she doing one event a day some days most days why isn't she flying to three Battleground States in a day um when when uh people ask me why I think she she she's more likely to lose than not her her great weakness is

she is in indecisive she doesn't like to make hard decisions and coming up with policy Choices is difficult if you think of everyone who's been elected president since since HW Bush so Clinton onward they've all put at the center of their campaigns a set of policy proposals and and kind of an ethos of things that start with this sentence what my party's gotten wrong is X right they've they've they've they've so They seized on some things that they really believe their part's out of step with the country and wrong On the substance so Bill Clinton

92 supported the death penalty Right to Work NAFTA uh and welfare reform and he would say my part's wrong on these things right all it's obvious for the rest what they did not only has she not said that I'm not sure she believes that I'm not sure that she thinks the part's out of step with the country on anything and when you see you know government funded operation operations for uh illegal immigrants who want who want to Change their sexual identity no no way would Bill Clinton or Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton or John krey

no way would they have said I'm I'm for that what is she because there's not strong public support for that no no just the opposite so so so we say why can't she come up with a platform any position she takes is going to be uh criticized if she moves to the center by the left and if and and even on the left even if she takes something further to The left as she has some of the things she's come up with new government spending programs and tax programs they're still subject to be criticized and

she doesn't like to be criticized she'd rather try not to take positions now the other day but can I just ask even within the Democratic party which I routinely dismiss is crazy and evil and poisonous and all that but paying for sex changes for legal aliens that can't be a hugely popular issue even within The party it it isn't but but it is a popular position for the loudest angriest most influential part of the party but if you do this s to soldier that actually works so if your goal is to get elected I mean

just this is an aoral evaluation of this right but you just denounce the unpopular wackos in your party it's not hard yeah right well it's it's hard for her because she's indecisive doesn't like that is that is I think What explains it you know her big sister Soldier moment was to say I want to I want to um cut I want to raise the capital gains tax rate less than Joe Biden that was her big sister Soldier um she also uh uh you know you look at her career she's not really been a font of

policy ideas no and that you know she's stolen a lot of Trump's ideas which you know Trump people don't like but I guess it's smart if the other side's got a smart idea and you can claim it do but In terms of original ideas it's just not been her thing and again I think partly is she doesn't like to go onto terrain where people might shoot at her from the left or the right or both and she is in a complex position just because of the the nature of how she got to where she is

now the fact that there's a sitting president sort of in the shadows behind her um what is her relationship like with Biden well it's gotten a little bit Fray Of late because I don't think he I think he there are people who say he doesn't wanted to win I think he does wanted to win there are people who say um he only wants her to win without disrespecting him even though he has said privately to her and the teams have said to each other she needs to do what she needs to do to win I

mean I you know I saw his mental decline in in 2017 yeah I did too you know I saw Him do a public event for a book in 2017 and I said after the event thank goodness he's off the public stage thank goodness this didn't happen earlier and so the the those of us who knew him before and speaking for myself I always liked him um in a very shallow way but you know he's a fun to be around totally and sort of large personality touchy Irish guy I like people like that and but those

of us who knew him it was immediately obvious that he had some Sort of cognitive decline I it was just obvious so I think the things he's done of late that that the Press cast is hurting her I just think he's doing because he's you know he's not he's not super sharp It's Kind out of it and the staff is as they have when he was still the nominee to being deferential to him but there is a uh again just recently in the last 10 days or so there have been a number of things like

he went out in the briefing room right when she was Starting her event um no one's really explained how that happened uh it's hard to coordinate Right Between The West Wing Wilmington and the vice president's office like those are three entities busy people doing other things besides coordinating so I think they've dropped some stitches I think they're determined to stop dropping stitches the rest of the way so you don't think it's passive aggression I don't think it is there are many people I respect who think it is I Don't think it is I think it's

just it's hard and he's not up to doing hard things and she's even though she's not campaigning very much she's still on the road and it's just I just think they're dropping stitches I really don't think there's a passive aggressive or or even a a mixed feeling about I think he wants her to win I mean the toughest question for her that I have seen is how will you be different from from Joe Biden yeah why Can't why haven't they thought through a better answer again it's hard to get a straight answer about that I

think it there are three things at Play number one she doesn't want to appear disloyal and and that is something he does care about as I said he wants her to win but he wants her to win his way he doesn't want her to win at his expense okay that that is an ambivalence but not not not the fundamental question of does he want her to win so number one he doesn't she Doesn't want to disrespect him number two taking different positions from him involves risk there could be there could be a backlash right and

she doesn't as I've said she that's her main problem she doesn't like to take risks and then finally um there's a there's a um there's just a basic performative question with her that's not her only bad answer right that's the one that people have focused on the most but she's just not good at delivering sound Bites or complicated messages in a way that that that is helpful to her you know she does these interviews where nothing bad happens and they give high fives that nothing bad happened or only a few bad things happen none of

these interviews has she come out of where people said wow now I get it now I get why this person should be my president and that's again just Testament to she's just not that good at this thing called answering questions that are hard or Easy what do the donors who put her there think of all of this yeah so I'd say impressionistically because I haven't talked to them all but impressionistically about 80% of them are just we got to look forward the election's coming up Trump must lose we have to do everything we can to

help 20% say how could we possibly have replaced we all said the only Democrat who could lose to Joe B to Donald Trump was Joe Biden how could we have possibly played a role in replacing him with apparently the only other person who could lose to Donald Trump now Joe Biden and I and KLA Harris would say these other Democrats would have be struggling as much or maybe more than she would even though they wouldn't have been as burdened with the Biden Harris record so what they're saying is this is the best we could do

this is better than Biden the pollsters are and the public polls are saying she Can still win it let's put our heads down and win but there will be a lot of soul searching about how they possibly could have placed her in this role without um without the benefits of of actually beating Donald Trump how did that um I I think you were the one of the very maybe the first person uh to report that this was coming that Biden was going to step aside how'd you know that by the way um I predicted it

but just predicted you reported it so how Did you know that and how did how did that happen yeah I reported it against my instincts because I did not believe Joe Biden would give the nomination up first of all it's embarrassing and you know it's staying on his legacy as much as they built it up as great for his legacy uh but also he believed that she would become the nominee in all likelihood and that she could not be Donald Trump and that if somehow she didn't become the nominee he didn't Think Gavin Newsome or

Gretchen Whitmer or any of these other people could beat Trump and I think two years ago Biden didn't think KL Harris could win no or be a good president as I understand it so he was really yeah he's he from the day from the transition forward he told Ron Clan and everyone else she needs to meet with foreign leaders all the time and she did I mean she's had an unprecedented uh you know kind of tutorial in that she needs to be you Know supported and all that we all know what happened she she she

did not run a good operation uh there was leaking and and her approval ratings were ridiculously low he he part of it was his own you know PR himself but but but the people around him to a person would would not have told you that she could be Donald Trump um so my point is I reported on it uh thinking he's not going to step down and and I had lots of people who we know you And I both know very smart who said you're you're wrong he's going to have to step down particularly Republicans

said the party can't be that irrational they can't be say we're going to continue along with a guy who is who 70% of the Democrats say shouldn't be the nominee but he didn't have to give it up so the I broke I can't obviously say exactly how I broke it but it started with a tip about the vetting of uh vice presidential prospects by her and one of The stories that hasn't been written yet I'll tease it out here and hopefully someday somebody will give me a big enough book contract I can write it is

she started maneuvering for the nomination well before the Sunday morning when he called her and said he was not going to run and part of that was vetting of uh potential running mates which her team knew that that couldn't wait that had to get underway that's something you know normally takes Months so I got a tip that that was happening so every year when Apple releases the overpriced new iPhone the big carriers play the same old game sign up now next two years some big sell your contract get a free iPhone well what do you

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very first month that's PT talk.com Tucker switch your sales service to a company you can Be proud to do business with with that I mean that's more than vying for the job I mean that is measuring curtains oh yeah you're vetting your VP candidate when you're the VP yeah but but but because she knew as as my sources did that he was strongly considering getting out and more than strongly considering there was a period of of at least a week and maybe more where amongst a very small circle of people the default was he's getting

out and it's just a matter Of when and how you'll recall he got covid and that kind of delayed things a little bit um was that actually Co I don't know any reason to believe it wasn't I know there's lots of speculation about it but I think it was so so on one track you have him sort of starting to realize he needs to and then you have the Pelosi track and the Pelosi track is part of why I was able to report what I able to report because she was determined to get him out

and she Saw that hakee jeffre and and Chuck Schumer and the donors were not doing enough to get him out and so she felt she had no choice but to get him out but again not reported yet she didn't want to be KLA Harris she wanted Shapiro to run of governor of of P Pennsylvania so she she intended there to be a two-step process and I'm not sure because I don't know this from her and I would take it only from her I'm not sure if she knew the outcome whether she still would have Been

for it I think so but I'm not sure what would the St I I remember hearing people told me the exact same thing that that they that Obama wanted a twostep process what would that have looked like well lots of people talked about it publicly right there were people like James Carville and and uh trying to think of the other prominent people who talked about it um there's others who who wanted basically either in the runup to the convention or at the convention Like one proposal was that Obama and Bill Clinton would pick six people

and that those six people could run for the nomination by giving speeches and having the delegates vote and they didn't rule that KLA Harris but the kind of gal of it was this is the way to stop con Harris yeah the delegates were were Biden Harris delegates she's the incumbent vice president she's a black woman of color and the the campaign money could only transfer to her so Those are pretty big advantages particularly this question of the delegates right they're Biden Harris delegates was were they going to vote for somebody else in a competitive contest

so the Assumption was even if you couldn't get her to stand down and they knew they probably couldn't get her to stand down who's going to run against that who's going to run against somebody with all of those advantages and so um I think part I Think what what some people don't take sufficiently into account is the Clock Was ticking if they'd had a year to figure this out maybe things would have gone differently but they didn't have much time and the minute she made it clear to people she was going forward and you asked

these other people will you run against her none of them wanted to none of them wanted to so it wasn't a matter of of uh uh who didn't I thought gret and Whitmer wanted to none well First of all my sense of of the people who get talked about the half dozen none of them are in a John Edwards Barack Obama George W Bush School of I must be president and of course Bush was relatively ambivalent but he he was like yes that's something I want I think if you look at the six of them

not only are they ambivalent about running let alone running against an incumbent vice president I'm not sure if you offer them the presidency any of them would take it Like that and some people think I'm naive about that there are politicians who are ambitious who think about the white house but just from knowing them and the people around them I don't think you could say about any of them automatic here's here are the keys to 1600 I don't know that they would take it and I say that without hoping I don't sound naive they're politicians

who have aspirations but they're all they're all relatively young they've got some of Them have younger kids they recognize the um the downsides of how it changes your life forever and none of them are um again in the bill sort classic Bill Clinton like I'm at Georgetown plotting how to get to the White House right they're just not like that so so I I absolutely strongly agree with what you just said okay good you're and I've seen it I saw Chris Christie I saw him do that in 20 exactly exactly there are plenty of people

it's a big step yeah It's a life-changing step and if you've got younger kids it's just like for some of them it's a non-starter or if you've got a spouse who's ambivalent exactly you know you can't do that and and and if you look at the politics of of the era we're in now like a Democratic president is going to be attacked every minute on social media no matter how good a job they do unless they can revolutionize our political culture they're just going to have you know Constantly bombarded none of them have National Security

experience like it's a big job so so in some ways in retrospect there's a fantasy to think anybody would run against her to say I'm gonna I'm gonna tear away Biden Harris delegates in addition how are you going to design a system really where Bill Clinton and Barack Obama get to pick they they were put a premium on and she did on I the nomination wasn't handed to her and it really in some ways it wasn't she she Earned it in the sense that she figured out what the rules of the game were and she

won the game yeah I mean if you had Obama and Clinton just make the decision you'd have to admit publicly that it really is an olre oligarchy correct correct and so would they pick Bernie Sanders you know he might win if they picked Bernie Sanders yeah they faced that problem twice before yeah so so I was able to figure out that she was underway and then I was able to figure Out that he was working on a withdrawal plan and then I was able to figure out that he had decided to withdraw as early as

that weekend this was on the Thursday night the final night of the Republican convention and you know people said how could you risk you know I don't work for a big Legacy news organization with lawyers and you know PR people how could you risk reporting it I had it just completely nailed it wasn't it wasn't um it wasn't it wasn't it wasn't like a Tough call to report it I reported that he was not going to endorse her which when I reported it was true um what happened after I reported that was he he there

were people in her Camp who didn't want him to endorse her because he didn't want to seem like a coronation they were confident that she'd be the nominee and they didn't want it to be the president chose the vice president but he got a lot of heat from the minute I report that from women close to her Who felt differently about it and some women in C in Congress who said it would look horrible for you not to endorse her so from the time I report it I think because I report it till Sunday he

changed his mind and decided yes he would endorse her but others as you know did not because they wanted to not create the impression that this was just a a an elite you know selection of the new nominee how did he I still don't fully understand how he dropped out so The media which had cheer LED for him obvously um but had stopped ex not only stopped they started attacking it right so there's that I felt that was a big deal just as an observer um but Biden himself was Resolute at least in public but

also every story you read said in private he was Resolute and then it just seemed to change well you know it's it's a normal thing it's this happens gradually and then all of a sudden EXA um uh So I'm very frustrated with our business and with kind of our political media culture that that for seven years there could be this cover up of all the major how many years have you been in this business since 1987 long long time we're moving toward 40 okay so just to for people I I think this is the worst

scandal in journalism American journalism history because because anyone knew what was happening the public knew what was happening And yet the cover up continued and when the cover up was exploded cover up of bid decline he spoke to a dead congresswoman I mean what more do we need to know he a congresswoman who had died he you know what I'm talking about yeah okay he speaks to a dead congresswoman and his press secretary says he spoke to her because she was top of mind because he was going to be meeting with her family that's not

Forgetting somebody's name that is a a loss of Acuity which would disqualify him from being a museum dosent right much less having access to nuclear codes so so so that cover up goes because some affection for Biden The Bullying of his staff but primarily because of of desire to make sure Donald Trump doesn't win and then when there becomes no choice but to say we got to get rid of him now because he's a threat to to The Republic because Trump could beat Him they turn against him they never acknowledge their participation as co-conspirators in

a seveny yearlong cover up and then the same people get to cover the the new candidate and and Trump it's it's staggering to me like after weapons of mass destruction there was some soul searching yes after the Muller investigation there was some not not more than 5% but some acknowledgement that that perhaps the coverage was a little bit off There's been zero as I see it zero soul searching acknowledgement we we we wrote story after story about how well Trump misspeaks to and well Biden you know their days when he's good and there are days

still to this day there days when he's fine but we all have seen people in Decline they have good days and bad days of course they shouldn't be president and that's not a partisan statement that's just a statement about The the rigors of the job but but the Press turned on him and then acted like they had not propped him up for seven years in in one day in one hour watching my former colleagues on CNN pivot like that it's incredible I was my job I couldn't so I was out I'll say I was out

of the country when that happened and which made it even weirder to watch you know your country from the other side of the world and wonder what is going on here And it looked very much like a setup very much like a setup um I think that because they all said the same thing at exactly the same moment yeah I think that they just I don't I don't I don't think the conspiracy is that disgusted they just all have the exact same orientation and they're bullied in the same way so I don't know that they

have to and react to the bullying the same way so I don't know that they had to discuss it I I do Know that um when I would talk to White House reporters privately for major news organizations they would acknowledge Biden the accuity decline was substantial they they saw it they just were in newsrooms that where that was it was impermissible to say it how could you not report that I don't know but no one did except for except for people from places like Newsmax and fox no one did I I really do I really

I really do Wonder how people look back on that because again they've moved on now but you know them all very well I don't know how they think about this by the way for people who don't follow this you know people are watching this I mean I should just say the obvious which is you were not just part of the news business but really at the center of the political news business for you know many decades what seems like decades because I think it was it was There um so you know every single person personally

I mean I just know that well I know a lot of them but you know there's a bunch of new new ones right all right but I'm saying I know a lot of them I know a lot of them anyone over 30 you know so what do they say I I don't understand like how they could explain that you know the president C now but you don't tell your viewers or readers that the ones who will offer explanations blame their Bosses that their editors and their executive producers and their anchors didn't want to hear it

and that they would say it and it just didn't become part of the the the coverage some of them have said that but again to me the failure to acknowledge it what what they did I won't say it's worse than the original crime but it's pretty bad it's pretty bad and and of course it along with law fair it helps Trump extraordinarily Because people say sometimes in our business oh I trust the American people they're way ahead of us on this one it's true it's not just a Trope yeah American people including Democrats they saw

what was happening they saw the clips on social media and that period leading up to the debate like when he was overseas when when the White House said oh this is what was the word they had for it a cheap fake that these clips are are selectively edited I just say he talked To a dead congresswoman we don't need more examples yeah we sure are there some Republicans and some red people online who who choose bad examples there are but we don't need we don't need good or bad examples his mental acuity decline is obvious

and so they everybody knew just to bottom line everybody who covers politics in Washington covers the presidency knew of course how could you not now they might have had a different sense of how bad it was right but but But but I'll I'll give you an example of the lack of accountability not only have they not acknowledged their own role what about the role of the people around the president who to this day say he didn't fail he didn't decide not to run because he had to acknowledge that his loss of mental acuity made it

unlikely he could beat Trump they continue to say he didn't think he could win or he was going to divide the Democratic party the people the story of how they protected Him there's been some piercing of that with foreign leaders saying you know anonymously that he had this Biden had this problem or this problem you had the Wall Street Journal piece which was actually week te about um about mostly Republicans saying was an absurd piece yeah was ridiculous but but I know many examples most of which I Can't Describe because the terms in which they

were shared with me but Democratic members of Congress knew full well of course and That Wall Street Journal piece you know the editors at the Wall Street Journal um I'll just say I think are very dishonest but uh I know that they are but some of them but like that piece was really the only piece in a big from Big publication to make the point that hey people are talking about his senility but that piece was so watered down that it like what was the point of even running that I'm I'm surprised they spent so

much time on it and that's what They came up with it but again it helped it helped Biden because it was certainly now it hurt the Democratic party because if if Trump wins history is going to show of course if they'd replaced him sooner with anybody including Harris they'd have had a better chance rather than rushing her into this but but how there could not be I mean she's not been asked about it she was in the town hall the other day but she's not explained Her connection to this cover up kind of incredible what

was her connection to the like what is the truth I don't think she was heavily involved with it because that wasn't her responsibility right she wasn't in charge of making sure the president's okay now you could argue that should have been but that really not the role of any vice president let alone this one again he had good days and bad days and he good hours of the day and bad Hours of the day so my guess is when she saw him most of the time he was fine but I'm sure just by the law

of averages I'm sure she saw him when he was not well she must have known yeah I remember when I was a kid and going into this business and hearing people speak derisively of the White House Press Corp during the 1930s which covered up the fact supposedly that FDR was in a wheelchair and thinking you know how could that you know I mean that's so North Korean like That could never happen again I I'm I've long been a critical critic of the press I think that the the the the degree to which Trump was helped

from 15 onward with the Press hostility is obvious but this one really frightens me it really frightens me that it's it's it's beyond just like you know North Korea or communist China it's beyond that it's it's the it's the fact that it's occurring in a society with alternative media and social media And and and White House briefings and reporters presumably wanted to make their bones by getting big stories no one reported it when it was clear they needed to turn they just turned against him no accountability for themselves or for the people in the government

who engaged in the coverup with them I just find it frightening not just it's fun to say it's a big media Scandal and provocative to say it but I find it frightening that that could Happen in this country now I find it frightening with all the media that we have different from back when other presidents Kennedy Roosevelt Etc Wilson this is now this is the age of transparency and had he not had a bad debate he'd still be running for president I I find it frightening how did did he have how did that debate happen

well like how did there are a lot of Republicans who say it was a setup and there were people who knew he' do Badly and they made him debate to force him out I just don't believe that based on what I know he was on track to lose okay and there was no precip there was no intervening event that they saw could turn things around he was on track to lose before that debate yeah he had one path to win which was to win the three great lak States in Nebraska 2 CD and he was

behind in Pennsylvania I don't remember ever reading that story also there seems like there's a Lot of pressure not to report what the data show which is you know if a Democratic candidate or president is behind no one wants to report that yeah is that do you think that's true well it's true if it's a Democrat that's what I'm saying oh yeah he was on track to lose he might have lost all seven Battleground States and he was and he was he was he was in trouble in New Mexico and in um and in Virginia

and in Minnesota not as bad as he was after the Debate but before the debate things were very Grim really oh yeah he had he had one Electoral College path and he and it was not not in state again I just don't remember ever reading that it's it's true and not to make it too personal but I should just say for those who don't remember I always thought that you were a liberal Democrat I have no idea what your politics are I'm not going to ask you I'm I'm I'm I'm a journalist I'm an old

fashion Journalist okay so but I just never even I didn't think of you as any kind of right-wing activist because you weren't but I remember 2016 when you said shortly before the election I think Trump's got a pretty good shot of winning yeah and you and that was I think just like you're anal analytical I covered Trump rallies in 30 States and talked to voters across the country it was clear he could win and he did yeah so you were right yeah but you were Attacked you were denounced for saying that yeah I think covering

Trump's really hard covering Trump is really hard even if you want to be fair because he does say a lot of things that are untrue he does break a lot of norms that at least cause reasonable people to wonder whether those are good Norms are bad and he doesn't play straight with the kind of decorum of of um of interactions with the public and the press and January 6 And some of the things he said publicly that are hateful and hurtful okay makes them very hard to cover but he's also hard to cover because the

most of the press covers him in a way that is unfair and that the American people not everyone but anyone who doesn't watch MSNBC Prime Time knows is unfair it's it's right there with the law fair it's unequal treatment that's hostile to him so covering him is really hard but but you should be allowed to analyze the Poll numbers well of course but also to me it's more I mean that's crazy to me it's more it's more to appreciate that the things that people liked about him who liked him and 2015 and 2016 are legitimate

things that they that they that they don't believe Washington stands up for them that they don't believe they believe there's too much government regulation they believe that there's no plan to deal with China there were there were serious things he talked About that the Border needs to be secure there are serious things he talked about that are in he talks about them some often almost always in a cartoonish way but those are those are aspirational things and worries of the American people that other politicians in both parties weren't addressing so you can and you can

analyze the poll numbers but you can also say as I said in 2011 which is really how I met Trump he's talking about stuff that People re respond to viscerally that aren't being addressed and they're not incidental things they're core things for tens of millions of Americans so it wasn't it wasn't to me when people say oh how did you know it was not it was not hard with the election just weeks away KLA Harris has only won a single clearly defined policy objective and that's more abortion this is not the pro-choice position of your

youth the safe legal and rare pretense this is More abortion is a good thing abortion anywhere anytime for any reason at any stage of development up to the 9th month who can be for that well the modern democratic party is for that result thousands of babies dying every day and that's why preborn clinics its network of clinics are located in the highest abortion areas Nationwide to help women provide counseling care and resources to women who are pregnant and desperate to help them pre-born has over The years rescued 300,000 children all while sharing the message of

God's love and offering up to 2 years of after care the pre-born approach is changing hearts for generations to come and that's the key changing minds and saving people they do this with ultrasound one ultrasound cost just $28 that's roughly the price of a very cheap dinner maybe fast food and for that you can sponsor five ultrasounds for 140 bucks pre-born and committed to saving as many children As possible changing Minds changing hearts and they need your help to do that abortion should not be the basis of an entire political party even if you're pro-choice

that's disgusting so if you want to help donate securely visit preborn dcom Tucker or call as250 and use the keyword baby but it's it right well I agree with you completely and I also wrote a story in Politico um making some of these points but I wasn't attacked for it because I was already on The outside you were very you were the inside and I just thought it was the response to you was so interesting in 2016 because really the demand was not that you know you be like a democratic partisan the demand was you

just deny observable real yes and that's a different thing so so I have great empathy for the people who support Trump and who are angry that the establishment media and universities and all these liberal cultural institutions Are hostile to them I I I I appreciate and and to see their candidate get four indictments uh that are poly political even though some of the underlying actions were wrong but wholly political indictments but I also have sympathy for the people of trump derangement syndrome I get why they think this is the worst thing that could happen to

America and I hear it from Democrats all the time who say Donald Trump being president is not the worst thing that's ever happened in My life politically it's the worst thing that's ever happened in my life I I don't want to put myself on a pedestal but I don't believe there are too many people forget just journalists I don't think there are a lot of people who have empathy and and and understanding for both those groups and I think that's the core challenge for the country right now is for all of us to try to

understand both groups but why do you I mean you're from Washington DC Your father worked at high levels of government um you're very much from that I mean you're from literally from that culture and then you spent most of your life in New Y C I was once called the high priest of establishment journalism well and that is I was I'm 55 I was there and that is totally accurate yeah so how do you wind up with empathy for Trump voters um because three things one is I covered Bill Clinton was the first Presidential candidate

I covered and I went to 46 states with him and listened to people unhappy with the status quo not just the short-term economic pain but the long-term dislocation we've seen since you with surveys are your kids going to have the same economic future you didn't know uh do you do you understand your place in the world in terms of the economy are you confident that you'll have a career that you like are social changes is a society changing In ways that are offensive to you or or unsettling to you so I saw the importance of

getting out of Washington and New York and watching presidential candidates talk to voters and talking to the voters and I saw some people like Bill Clinton and Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan i' put those three ahead of the others saw the mood of the country and saw that their party was not necessarily addressing everything they needed to be addressed and they did so that's number One is I just understood the concept of someone speaking against the status quo in the establishment number two um I've always seen liberal media bias even when early in my career

Peter Jennings was my mentor he saw it too he was ahead of his time in understanding half our potential consumers were conservative and so you have to constantly be questioning whether your news product and your and your analysis is appealing To the entire country and not just the people on the upper west side of Manhattan and then lastly um I've always uh uh uh been concerned that the uh uh how do I explain this it's like you you you you have to be honest as a journalist you can't just go not just not go with

the Upper West Side Washington DC mentality but you have to be constantly questioning the assumptions that's a that's core to the to the job and so I did that whether It's politics or not just is are we thinking about this right the way I I covered the gaming industry for a little bit and I'm fascinated by it and I think the way we cover the gaming industry in this country is insane and it needs to be uh it needs to be different if you look at most coverage of it it's not so he say about

sports what does that mean that I mean not to get too sidetracked but I'm interested what does that just it's a it's a huge Business that's completely unscrutinized that are you pardon my total ignorance cuz I hate all of it are you talking about gambling or computer games no no no no uh we could say it about both but i' say it about i' say it I would say it to about social media and about kids on iPads no we're just talking about casinos sports betting gambling how how is it covered that you think is

wrong well it's barely covered and it's the the the fact that it's like regressive You know that it hurts poor people the fact that these businesses are extremely powerful and they're lobbyist and they rarely have rules that are deleterious to their interests uh and and the fact that they create Economic Opportunity some places uh that that has been successful but just it's one of the biggest businesses in the in the world and it's you you pick up the New York Times Wall Street Journal Washington Post Associated Press the networks They're barely covering it and when

they do they're not covering to me the essence of of what it's really like so when I covered it I I got backlash from the people in the business both in the journalism business covering and from the gaming industry because I was coming in and questioning assumptions how how as a Society are we thinking about this I don't think we're thinking about it at all well we're not but but we should be both both the positive but also the Negative the lives that destroys and the the percentage of people's household income that they use on

it I find it insane I find insane so I'm embarrassed that I haven't again I don't want to get Sidetrack but since you said that out loud I'm I'm one of the people who's ignored it and think about how much think about how much coverage there's you've ever read in the New York Times about the gaming industry I learned the other day that It's really common for young men in their 20s recent college graduates who by definition have no money most of them uh to spend a lot on Sports gambling yes it's a huge thing

and and and the and the recruitment of athletes to you know to raise the brand identity of the individual companies it's it's a massive business and just uncovered and it's it's massive I forget how big it is but it's huge it's like bigger than like Hollywood something Something something combined it's just really oh yeah it's huge it's huge so again I just always as a journalist have said people say Trump can't win well I saw him speak at CPAC in 2011 that guy could win and so just going to question they did am I misremembering

this you were attacked viciously just for observing that correct uh not in 2011 I was attacked no in 2016 oh in 2016 yes yes I was attacked but I'm saying I saw it in 2011 as I started my relationship With Trump I saw him speak at CPAC where you know Mitch Daniels and a bunch of potential presidential candidates spoke and I went on TV the next morning and and said Trump was the best speaker not just because of the performance but he got the best reaction and you may not take him seriously as a presidential

candidate but you need to take what he's running on and talking about seriously and I say always Donald Trump is in some ways a complicated man but in some ways He's simple if you say nice things about him on television he likes you um so he called me up and invited me over to Trump Tower and I and I mean he wasn't like my best friend but I talked to him about politics then pretty consistently from 2011 to 2015 and part of why I had some access to him was because when people on the networks

were interviewing him and and talking about him because he's a g box office but mocking the notion that he Could R win I took him seriously incredible and then took heat for it obviously when and he actually won big big heat for him yeah so how just I keep getting sidetracked my apologies but how exactly did it happen that Biden went from telling the world telling people around him that he was going to stay in um with the full support I think of his wife and son yeah to announcing that he was not running again

um that That the data was very grim and inarguable yeah uh and he was presented with a lot of it but Nancy Pelosi who as I understand and it has not spoken to him since uh he got out of the race as we sit here today really that's what she said I believe in an interview I just read um she knew where the pressure points were she's extremely skillful right she knew what it would take to get him to cry uncle and I'm not sure exactly what That included except more and more Governors and members

of Congress saying he had to step down donor saying they would not write a single additional check right so if you're the incumbent president and your fundraising dries up pretty completely because he wasn't raising small dollars right he was ryant on big checks could you stay in the race if leading members of your party called for you to resign could you stay in the race If um you had no money to run a campaign and and really had to lay off tons of your staff not be able to afford advertisement um not be able to

fly around and do big rallies could you stay in you could but if Nancy Pelosi is saying to you you will have no money you will have almost no one supporting your continuing on donors celebrities members of Congress Governors you will lose and you will be blamed in history for having stayed in and lost to Donald Trump or we Can celebrate you at the convention we can say you're like George Washington and you can salvage your your reputation I think presented with those choices he didn't have a choice what was Obama's role um to talk

to Pelosi and Schumer and others Clyburn and others about how you get him out how you design a process to replace and to maximize the chances of the party winning and to try not to get his backup right the the the the Psycho Drama between him and Obama is real I don't think it is between him and KLA Harris but between him and Obama it's real I remember Hunter Biden who was my neighbor for many years telling me more than once when Biden was vice president how much they despised Barack Obama he despised Barack Obama

well what he did to Joe Biden in 2016 a man who'd run for president twice who thought it was his Birthright to then be the nominee in in 16 to say we're going with Hillary Clinton that that that in the Biden family that's that's as bad as it gets that's as treacherous as it gets so uh uh and then in 2020 he didn't really support him until he had to when you know when it was just him and Bernie so so Obama had to worry and this is why Pelosi was singular if it hadn't been

for Nancy Pelosi I don't think this would have happened he had to not get Biden's backup Biden had to see this as as Inevitable but not um but not uh embar but minimizing the embarrassment and so Obama was very careful to not be and done like to be public anyway at this point but he was careful to not have Biden think that he was engineering it but he was he was he was strategizing about how do we put the pressure on him publicly and privately and how do we end up with the strongest possible nominee

boy this is not a Sentimental group I've noticed I mean loyalty personal Affection long-lasting friendship assuming that even exists in that world none of them play any role in any of this um I think there's some affection between Bill Clinton and Joe Biden well I'm sure um so there's some there I mean this is high stakes politics I don't think I don't think that Nancy Pelosi I don't know this from her so I'm I'm speculating based on just observing her and knowing her a little bit I don't think that she took pleasure in this I

Think she felt bad for him so in that sense I think there was some Humanity to it there was just a problem that had to be solved they they they were they were trying to switch from zero chance to win to a decent chance to win and so I don't I don't I don't know that there's room for sentimentality that that would stand in the way of that so they call on her to bring the dog to the vet to put him down well they didn't really call on her she stepped up because she saw

in Clyburn and and Jeff and Schumer and Obama and Clinton both clintons she didn't see sufficient effort and the Clock Was ticking did you see I just I know I'm fixated on this but I I am fixated on it did you see prior to June of this year any story in any major news Outlet saying Hey Joe Biden's going to lose well in my own work yeah okay you've been exiled from world I mean no because they they couldn't I mean you saw Stories in this before before they agreed to debate you saw stories that

said his fundraising was a real problem you saw stories that said uh he was having you know problems in like New Hampshire and Virginia and New Mexico and Minnesota you saw stories saying um uh uh he was having problems with over the Israel war you even saw the Press covering immigration like they' never covered it before not not the way they would if it were on the other foot you Saw the coverage of inflation yeah you saw there the cover part of why he had to agree to the debate was the coverage was was they

turned on to an extent not to an extent they were trying to drive him out of the race except for a few Communists but yeah the coverage of Biden from February or so onward was quite negative so we just got back from a month on the road coast to coast and everywhere in between 16 cities in 30 days and I've got to say Almost everyone on our team looked suspiciously well rested every morning as we got back on the plane it turns out most of them are using a product called Sosa which is one of

the sponsors of our tour sambrosa Blends antihistamine with a syrup of herbs and honey and is designed to help you sleep well waking up feeling refreshed and revitalized and based on the sunny cheerful faces of the people I work with it works it's inexpensive it's less than 50 cents a Night and we know the people who own the company and they are great people they are faithful people and they are about the happiest family we've ever run across the product Sosa has a ton of five-star reviews you can check it out on their website sos.com

how what's the underlying illness that he suffers from no idea why don't how crazy is that that a nation on the cusp of nuclear war which we are to this day could have a commanderin-chief Suffering from some illness and nobody demands to Crazy find out what it is crazy and and the fact that the fact that I mean again this goes to the Press cor part of the conspiracy his doctor was never made available to answer questions that is standard they a Parkinson specialist Comm in yeah although that the facts on that are still a

bit murky but but well they're totally murky yeah but but but how how they could Explain to any White House reporter satisfaction why they weren't given access to the president's doctor I can't understand it just should have been an alarm Bell and they should have brought the briefing room to a halt we demand to talk to the president's doctor as we've talked to past presidents doctors when this President spoke to a dead congresswoman we need to access the president's doctor just the way the stiff leg walking and everything just You turn the sound off and

you could tell that there was a Prof Amer and the American people knew it and that's why you know I forget the exact numbers but like 70% said he shouldn't be running you know it's like there's a reason why the the the Press had to say the emperor looked fantastic in his new clothes not you know I like the shirt but I don't like the pants they had to be all in on the emperor looked fantastic because they couldn't they Couldn't show any weakness I like the shirt but not the pants exactly it couldn't show

any weakness why because they couldn't do anything to be accused of helping Trump win what it's not my imagination this is the Press has always obviously been liberal always been sympathetic to Democrats but this posture of like total denial of absolute B lie deception that's a new thing it's a new thing it's it's covering Trump's Heart and and and just as people on the right I'll say again have have are revolted by the the the slanted press coverage the lawfare um the unequal treatment I think people on the left have have proper grievance about the

things Trump has done that are again antithetical to a lot of what americ America stands for they're they're right about that he's hard to cover but but the but the way that most of the press has chosen to deal with it is to just Focus on the negative aspects of trump and disregard the Grievances of the other side but honesty just I mean even leaving aside the ideology or how you think Trump fits into American history just like I don't know if it's raining out you can't say it's sunny out because that's lying I agree

but but but they they they're besides liberal media bias and besides just the emotional Trump derangement syndrome they've decided that January 11th and stormmy Daniels And documents at Mar Lago and his comments about immigrants are more important are are so important that they have to uh cover those the exclusion of Americans being killed by people in the country illegally that's just what they've decided is there any sense from within those big media organizations that they're they've committed Suicide no they're they're uh their cultural personal institutional orientation is towards covering the news for half the country

that's what they do but it as a business it's like they' they've destroyed themselves that's my read on it anyway and I worked for all those companies I mean the New York Times has created whle and recipes so they haven't destroyed themselves um there's always going to be a demand For news and you know they all adapted like you know as you and I discussed they adapted way too late but there there there's it's a it's an industry and crisis but some of the Legacy players are finding their way towards yeah digital survival so I

don't think they're all going to disappear and I think they'll for sure but there the weaker ones CBS I think NB I mean CBS is like almost done I think NBC CNN I don't think they have Bright Futures but you Know I could be wrong they'll have to they'll have to you know very late in the game adapt to digital sales and and and different models besides people paying for subscriptions people paying for advertising or Cable Systems paying for Carriage they'll have to they'll have to find different sources of revenue and they'll have to make

products that appeal to enough audiences that there's there's there's just Mass there but somebody's got to fill the Assigned the intended role of the media which is to inform the public about things factual things yeah um yeah it's it's a crisis and not just a crisis in America obviously other countries have this problem but but there is a market for news people do want news you have to have it yeah so so we just need whether it's Legacy places that find their way or new places like what you're doing what I'm doing that that that

say we're going to make money off of quality Content that some number of people like and we're going to find business models that work and we're not going to be wedded to the old business models which is just not going to support journalism how long were you at ABC from ' 87 to 2007 long time how many years is that that's about 20ish years no it's uh 97 2007 um did you ever think that you would be part of Independent Media I never did I mean I loved working for a big powerful you know one

of the most Powerful news organizations in the world uh and I assumed I always would and uh and I still think there's some value in it I mean you and I both now do things for ourselves and with our small merry bands that before 17 people would have been working on we never would have had to think about it but it's a small price to pay to not be freed from the the downsides of being you know in an institution where you can't do what you think's right you know some of the time At least

or best not necessarily right but best like what looking back can you give examples of things that you couldn't do that you think you should have been allowed to do um file more Freedom of Information Act requests uh even if they were going to annoy people we covered so if somebody said well we're trying to book that person you know as a great guest so please don't file that Freedom of Information Act request that happened a Few times yeah now there was another Equity involved for the organization right they wanted a booking more than my

fishing Expedition on a foia um but I I I will say that that's that's an example I could give a few others but but I was blessed when I worked for ABC when I worked for Time Magazine when I worked for Bloomberg I was blessed with a fair amount of autonomy so I was never told by corporate the corporate side what to say I was rarely told don't pursue Something because of another Equity I gave you an one of the examples but it's more just uh you know you know putting on a TV show at

a major Network like 200 people are touching the product right it just it's just a hard Bureau y to to to to be super creative in but it also produces you know from a production point of view quality stuff that's a tradeoff it I'm not imagining without getting into it I this is my read you may disagree I think in the end you are Very severely punished for demanding to think for yourself um that's my view of it but I don't think you're the only one who was yeah it did seem like a systematic cleansing

of anybody in media not even it wasn't even a Left Right divide it was like I felt it was a testosterone divide but it was to people like no no no I think this is right I'm going to pursue it those people are all gone I just have noticed well I mean it depends on on the category I think People particularly people who challenge the left I think are are more susceptible to that you think you know uh I mean I Rachel mattow says stuff that's out there she criticizes her own network sometimes she pursues

stories she's interesting she has a lot of power and autonomy um and there are other examples of that to her credit I've always I disagree with everything Rachel mat says but I have always admired that about her yeah but she's she's kind of The exception there are others but she's one of the exceptions that proves the rule most most people don't want to cross the Orthodoxy or or their corporate bosses and and in that sense they're not so different than you know working for JP Morgan Chase or working for Boeing like there's not a lot

of of stepping out of line the difference is of course to State the obvious that we're in journalists are in a business of Truthtable to the public interest and sometimes that has to be you know either your own employer or sometimes it's liberal Democrats well it's got to be that way though it's inherent like that's why we have first amendment protection like the system is set up with a free press at the really at the center of the Enterprise in my opinion so where where are we 5 years 10 years from now I thought there

was going to more joking around in this episode yeah No I'm just interested the grimmest episode of your program ever uh let's play paper football or something to shake up the mood I mean I'm a big believer in finding consumers who want quality and that that can happen Dev independent of of ideology you know my new platform you know we've not started making a ton of money yet but but it explicitly tries to appeal to people not just Centrist moderates and independents but people on the left and the right and I'm hoping that there is

a market for that that is different than the conventional wisdom which is the only way to make money is to go hard left or hard of course right be the New York Times yeah um but how does it work uh we bring uh people on who are willing to talk about the country in a way that's not uh politics of personal destruction I say our model is peace love and understanding and then we open it up to citizens from across the country and so Far organically Democrats Republicans Trump supporters Trump enemies all come on and

they all talk and they're supposed to talk in a way that is respectful and if somebody's disagreeing with you I say learn from them rather than say this platform is too prot Trump well is your opportunity to hear from prot Trump people or this Pro this platform is too proh haris listen to them talk and that it almost doesn't exist in America today it what's the Business model for that um well it's a platform that's not just about politics it's it's eventually we're going to expand to sports and music and WR writers it's called two-way

all communication almost all communication is one way right it's you talking or writing a substack or writing a book or cable news we bring people together with the people they want to hear from and so if if you get the best parenting experts in the world or NFL quarterbacks or Great musicians that people are super fans of sponsorships payments Super Fan payments to to to that are higher than what they pay for a normal access through live video and then eventually uh the ability to be the place to people come for for two-way conversations but

in politics it has the additional element of all voices Under One Roof and I have so hardened when people say liberals will say I understand why people are for Trump more than I ever Have the other day we had on uh just by coincidence we didn't book them two young black men both live in Manhattan or live in New York City both of explained extraordinarily well why they're for Trump and why they don't like the Democratic party and that and they were listened to respectfully and they liberals could ask them questions that just doesn't exist

anywhere else no it doesn't so I got to say that's consistent with my personal experience Of black men specifically not that I'm around black men all the time but actually fairly regularly yeah don't know that many black men who are Republicans but I know zero black men who are liberals not one I can't last time I met one yeah is that that seems like a trend if the if the anecdotal is even close to True Trump will break the record among support from black men I mean he'll smash it if the anecdotal is close to

true it just it's all over Social media it's all over my platform it's all over every story I hear and part of it you know I'll give you a couple of of of elements of this that I think is important part of it is Trump has always had a peel with kind of a macho Rich pretty white yeah has that but it's also you know this example of bias coverage the Press says when Trump says some young black men identify with him and their parents because he's been persecuted the Press says that's Racist my experience

is just true they get the fact that that that the legal system comes after people unfairly and if it can happen to trump it can happen to them and it has happened to them and their family and their communities and then lastly they they the failure of liberals to make life in cities for poor kids better is also a massive Scandal another Scandal is that the Republican Party hasn't done anything to capitalize on it and create uh competition to be Mayors of these cities sure but but when Trump says I'm for Criminal Justice Reform and

I'm for fixing schools and I'm for creating more Economic Opportunity he did Criminal Justice Reform the other stuff you know his record is spotty but but he's saying as he said in 2016 when people moned him what do you have to lose these young black men say the Democratic party offers nothing to me Trump might offer something to me and he's done Criminal Justice Reform I think I think again you could be the most partisan Democrat in the world if you can defend the performance of the democratic party to helping young black men good luck

but what's I I agree with everything that you said but what's interesting is that black voters including black men are not just like part of the democratic Coalition they're the basis of the party's moral Authority after what after black women they're Number two in terms of yes degree of support right but in terms of the story that Democrats tell themselves about why they're right and why they're better than their opponents it's all about Black people we've saved black people Y and so how do they like what's it like if you're a Democratic party if you're

Ron Clan and you all of a sudden all the black guys are against you and for Trump that must be mindblowing well of all the sort of uh Canary and the coal mine of Those who believe as some of my sources in both parties do that Harris is about to lose and maybe somewhat decisively she's spending three days maybe four days at the end of The Campaign spending the majority of her time courting black men that's that's mind-blowing so what did they say they say they're a little bit in denial about the causes of it

but they but they're not in denial about how big a problem is again Testament to when have you seen a Democratic presidential candidate with 20 days to go spending her time day after day recording black men but it's just weird because the one thing that everyone on planet Earth knew about Donald Trump was that he was a racist that's the one I mean that line was I mean that was the summary of trump so I had a I had a black woman who's who's lives in New York also who came on my platform the other

day and when she was confronted I I connected her to an older Black gentleman who's a Harris supporter and he said how can you support the man who uh led the birther movement how can you support the man who denied knowing who David Duke was and she said how about Joe Biden he's of that generation too hanging around with STM Thurman supporting the crime bill you you know her view was Joe Biden's got a racist pass too I'm not going to I'm not going to decide who to vote for based on Allegations about who's bigger

racist it's it's just interesting of all the candidates in the history of American politics for Donald Trump yeah to increase the share of the black vote and the Hispanic vote well big time in that way and again the liberal press would say how could Hispanics support a guy who's been so racist in his rhetoric about the border and of course as you know we're talking about people who've came here legally and don't like to be Lumped in with people who um who who who support more open border and of even people who came here to

legally and benefit illegally corre who benefit from the 86 amnesty for example correct and also people who think bacon costs too much yeah well exactly yeah amazing so why did you said at the outset that everyone's telling us this is going to be an extraordinarily close election you don't believe that well it might be I just I just think it's not a foreg gun Conclusion because I think seven Battleground States six or maybe all seven could go to one candidate they could in other words if one of them wins the seven states or six of

seven narrowly by our recent standards that would be an electoral college Landslide and I think that could happen I think whatever Dynamics exist there'll be some variation state to state but if Trump won all seven I wouldn't be surprised if she won all seven I wouldn't be Surprised and if that happens it's not going to be close I was talking to a member of Congress uh just a few hours ago who said I'm totally convinced this election will not be called within a week of election day will not be not be yeah I mean if

it's close it won't be there'll be litigation and there'll be you know all the normal second guessing our elections are decentralized and really messy and although there were efforts to Fix that after 2000 it's just the American way and in some of these states like in Pennsylvania the state gives incredible difference to the counties to figure out how they want to run things it's a commonwealth yeah and I think I think there's a real equal protection questions we saw that in Florida in 2000 like is it fair to one County compared to another County or

the State of Florida compared to the other states That they count differently it's it's a it's a great it's got political implications that are messy but it's a great 10th Amendment question so in what sense are they count differently you know when you can start counting different types of ballots and what the rules are for accepting ballots that have errors in them you know like if one county says well they said 2023 but they meant 2024 we're going to count that because we know who cares what the Outside addresses like one County counts it and

the other doesn't is that fair to to the voters you know that equal protection um and and even if the rules aren't different just as a matter of course say well in this County they stopped counting at midnight because the election supervisor said we have too many votes to count we're going to go home and in this County they kept counting and so now is there some chain of custody question in the county where The where the people went home and said they'll come back in at 9:00 we just don't have uniform rules that's just

the way America is so I mean I would say my base case unlike everybody else's my B cases will know by the next day because I think more likely than that it won't be close but if your person's right a week would be delightful if it was only a week could be significantly longer because once litigation starts it never stops and this time the Democrats are are as lowered up as the Republicans in 2020 the Bush campaign said we're only going to do florid I'm sorry in 2000 they said we're only going to do Florida

we think there's stuff in New Mexico we could do there's stuff in a few other states they said no we're just and the gore the gore people went along with that that won't happen this time all seven states will be litigated if if if the if the out recap those states are uh the recap the States They're the three great lake States Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and then the four sunbal states Georgia North Carolina Arizona and the state where Las Vegas is that I can't pronounce correctly so I never do it's Nevada like Vlad and

it's Nevada and in the last say 30 years I grew up going to Nevada yeah and we had a house in Nevada and everyone called it that and now they will yell at you for calling it that they've renamed it I have a mental block About it I say it wrong every time even though I think I'm saying right they're so judgy about they are very judgy that's why I don't even risk saying I call it the Silver State or the state where Las Vegas is Harry Reed's Old State MC airport countyny can say about

it uh Reno in the north um so we just go through those really quick and sure and love to get your view of where the race is and let's just start with Nevada yeah um it's the hardest one um uh the Trump People think they're going to win it and the Democrats think they're going to win it uh uh abortion unions the ghost of Harry Reid which they still site so I would say there's consensus uh amongst my sources that of the seven states it's it's um it's Harris's best but I wouldn't be surprised if

Trump won it economy's horrible inflation's been horrible housing's horrible uh he's got of course a presence in Clark County uh a lot of rural vote so um uh it's her Best of the seven well he's taking Elco we know that yes Elco his but the change in you know Clark countyy is very very heavily Hispanic yeah now yeah and the change in voting patterns of Hispanic voters or at least what we think is the change that's kind of what they're banking on they are um and and they're banking on the economy um and she's not

uh she's she's a Westerner right but people there don't like Californians you know typically there's for a good reason Yeah so again I think it's right that it's his least likely of the seven but he there reasons to think he could win it and um you know the biggest thing she has going for is is probably is is the unions yeah and and and whether that's that's a union and a location where the gap between the leadership and the ranking file is smaller there's reason to believe that she'll you know she'll do well Unite Here

and the yeah the big Casino workers unions so I would say Again her best state but but a state Trump can still win okay let's move New Mexico no Arizona New Mexico is blue uh Arizona is probably Trump's best of the seven um if there's a state she'll give up on and I don't think she will because she's got so much money and there's only seven and she's got to fly outest ask you to pause just can you summarize the where the money stands as of right now um relative so originally uh uh her money

Advantage uh the Democrats money Advantage early on when Trump was having trouble raising money was significant then they had a money Advantage but not dispositive it's now potentially dispositive um not so much for the ads although that matters too but for organizing she just she has she she's raised a billion dollars since she got in the race that's extraordinary and that doesn't include like the outside money that's that's not directly TI she's raised a billion dollars yeah Since she got in the race she's raised more for her campaign and for the party committees that she

controls uh then Trump has raised the whole campaign so it you know typically when you're at raise As Trump said in in 16 they have enough to win they they won't have as much money but they'll have enough to win it maybe he doesn't I'm not saying for sure but her financial advantage over the last 3 weeks is considerable where's all that money coming from uh Grassroots and rich people one of the biggest mysteries in politics for the last 20 years has been democrat's capacity to raise big money online compared to Republicans jimie Harrison who's

now chair of the democratic party ran against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina no chance to win not a particularly good candidate nice guy but not you know not not some so many people thought I'll give money because I'll be president someday he raised like $110 Million that's more than Marco Rubio who should be a good web fundraiser social media fundraiser raised when he ran for president they just are great at raising money from small dollar doners part of it was they started earlier with the thing act blue but it doesn't explain it and and I

talk to people about it all the time I can't explain it but that's a big part of why Trump's being outrage and if they hadn't kept indicting him he'd be even more desperate and then There's people writing big checks wa if they hadn't kept indicting him he wouldn't have raised as much money Trump raised you know a lot of his online money in the wake of all the legal stuff like literally on the days of indictments the days of bookings court dates that was a great equalizer for him to raise more money but but he's

badly outraised uh but again I don't think it's dispositive it might be it might be dispositive but I don't think it will be I think Trump has just enough and the Democratic party has rich people so does the Republican the big disparity is not the rich people the big disparity is the small dollars interesting there's some disparity right there's three kinds of money there's there's small dollars social media and online there's bundlers people writing checks of you know 3,900 whatever it is now and then there's people writing super pack checks for you Know 10 million

or you know less um Trump trump is is is doing is is I think being outraised in all three categories is my guess but I think the biggest uh discrepancy is the one that's the most valuable which is the low dollars because it's it's it's it's people can continue to give to you and for that money the Harris campaign gets what more TV ads more digital ads more field organizers more offices more get out the vote operations Uh more of lawn signs I've noticed more lawn signs uh and and more surrogate travel you know just

more of all the stuff you can spend money on and and again no one's criticizing uh their operation in terms of how they're going about turning people at voting early voting by mail and then on Election Day getting people to the polls they their team led by the woman who's running the campaign J Mali Dylan who's an organizer by by trade um They're they're that's an advantage so in other words more money spent wisely it's a big Advantage so you think Trump probably does have an advantage in Arizona yes it's his just say as the

Silver State is her best of the seven my sources agree that Arizona is the best his best of the seven all right let's move East um Georgia um it's a it's a it's a tougher one um he's Trump is ahead Trump is favored I think if Georgia will will Will be would be the the fifth or sixth State she won if she's if she's doing really well in other words if she wins Georgia it means she's going to win uh all the Great Lake States and and probably um uh the Silver State as well um

so it's it's probably Trump's third best of them probably and um uh and I'd make him the favorite there and my Democratic sources today would make him the favorite there as well okay there's there is a reality of democratic Politics in in southern states which is if you can increase the the percentage of the vote that comes from black vote which is called the contribution to the vote so what percentage of the number people who vote are black and you can and she can get her numbers back up to where Democrats typically are two big

ifs she'll win um but Trump is is doing well with the young black men there and you know the normal way he wins States running up in exurbs and rural areas um All of the seven states have a pro-choice energy in the two Western States there's ballot measures that will help there there aren't in the in the in the five others but Georgia you know the Atlanta metro area is very pro-choice a lot of suburban women so some combination of of her swelling black vote holding her own with black vote uh and Suburban voters particularly

women she could win it but Trump is the favorite there okay so we've named three So far North Carolina uh it's funny the vice president herself I'm told and and a lot of her AIDS have been very bullish on North Carolina as the Lynch pin for replacing Pennsylvania if if they lose Pennsylvania I have one Republican Source who I trust immensely regarding North Carolina who says no way Trump loses it so the storm is a variable no no way to know who that helps or hurt the the governor's race is a bit of a variable

but my source now I I trust the Ones who say Trump is likely to win North Carolina but vice president's put a ton of time in there and I think she'll continue to because they need a a hedge against losing Pennsylvania now Pennsylvania does has more electoral vote so if it's just a swap if Trump wins the three Sun Bel States and Pennsylvania and she wins North Carolina Wisconsin and and uh Michigan she loses so so if she if she wins Michigan and and Wisconsin and North Carolina but Loses Pennsylvania she needs one of the

other three Sun Bel States but North Carolina is the largest and and and and and the same as Georgia same number but that's kind of the Lynch pin for them so that's the biggest mystery they're very Democrats very bullish on it Republicans believe that it'll be trumps in the end interesting yeah what about Wisconsin um was was considered her best of the seven until she started to slip there in the last couple weeks and it's always been a Close State um uh Trump had his convention there a lot of rural vote there um a lot

of the social issues cut for Trump there less pro-choice State than some of the others so I would say if you the combination of my sources as a slight favorite to Harris but if Trump's running running the rest of the table he'll win Wisconsin I thought the whole point of Tim Walls was to shore up support in a place like Wisconsin running mates really don't make a Difference yeah they just don't as long as you pick someone who the public says is ready to be president it's really very marginal um that leaves Michigan Michigan um

so it's a little bit of a crosscurrent there because it's it's kind of The Bluest of this of of the seven states but she's got problem with labor she's got problem with black men she's got problem with um Union uh with uh Arab American and Muslim American Voters and she's not gone there until recently just the last couple days and done the things that the locals there demand like the local Democrats say you have to go to union halls you have to be doing you know black barber shops you have to be um figuring out

how to make peace with the Arab American and Muslim American so she's done those things the last few days um I would say um it's a must-win for her it's not a must-win for Trump but uh I'd make it at this point Her just like in Wisconsin a mild favorite and finally penl yeah so it is said P the winner of Pennsylvania will win it's said by everyone all the time yeah it's almost certainly true I'm goingon to do a two-hour show called it's all about Pennsylvania because it sort of is now I say Trump

can win without Pennsylvania and she can win without Pennsylvania and it's not far-fetched they both have reasonable paths without it so people shouldn't say It's all about it but certainly the winner of Pennsylvania as a matter of demographics and electoral college math is in the driver's seat the other person has has kind of has to um circumvent conventional wisdom about where these states are to make up for the loss of Pennsylvania and Trump is ahead and he's been ahead for a while now ahead within the margin of error but if you're consistently ahead even within

the margin of error you know no one Thinks these states are going to be won by seven points so she's got demographic problems there changing her position on fracking was absolutely essential uh whether people believed it or not she couldn't have won being against fracking it's not as big a deal throughout the state as people think but in a part of of the state it's a very big deal so I make Trump the favorite there as as do most of my Democratic sources but she's spending an unprecedented amount of Money she'll continue to work at

there um has a Democratic governor it has two Democratic senators it's it's it's more of a blue state in terms of Statewide office than a red State Trump won it once and lost it once but he's showing strength there with white workingclass voters with older voters with black men uh with the Hispanic uh suburbs uh around Philly so um it's it's uh and and that's and that's a place because Biden was born in Pennsylvania and so Associated with it that's a place where trading out Biden for Harris was probably a downgrade for them that they're

Biden Biden you know at least on paper had a better chance than she does well he's of course the loyal son of yeah Pennsylvania yeah he had his own problems though they've also not been a super uh big state about electing women to Statewide office compared to some other states for whatever reason um and she's a California liberal you know one Of the things I don't think we've discussed in our brief talk is she's really liberal right she really liberal she's culturally liberal she's economically liberal and she's not done a sister Soldier she's not fleshed

out a portrait of who she is except for saying she's a capitalist in a way that uh has resonated with a lot of these undecided voters and you see that in Pennsylvania as much as anywhere else they just they see her for what she is and that's not Really what Pennsylvania is their governor is a pretty moderate Democrat and as we did say at the outset or you said she hasn't really I mean if I'm KLA Harris and I'm from San Francisco by way of Montreal I'm going to make some effort to convince people I'm

not as liberal as they think I am she doesn't hasn't done a ton of that well she's she's done small things on the margins uh and not not put them in sharp relief so that Everybody would hear them because again she's she's she's cautious and and indecisive so she really hasn't and and it's a it's you know time short and and of course anything she does now will be seen by some voters as crav of course you know um what's the spread between the publicly available polls and the so-called internal polling of the campaigns like

how different are those numbers um depends on you know which apple and which orange you're comparing But I would say uh just like a back of the envelope super rough thing Trump like you know two points stronger in a lot of the private polls not in every state but in some of the states than in the public polls what accounts for that the public polls are done on the cheap and of all the ways newsrooms have cut back poll the polling budgets take a big hit right so a poll is only good if likely voters

if you know who a likely voter is right and the simplest Explanation is if you say I want my poll to have 40% Democrats okay because that's what I think the electorate is going to be so I think a poll that's good that has of likely voters 40% of my respondents are going to be Democrats so which Democrats are going to fill the slots because you're you're under pressure to finish the poll as quickly as possible you want 400 respondents say uh the longer it takes the more money it cost because you're paying for the

call Center to continue to make calls so the Democrats who are most likely to fill the slot are better educated Democrats who are more likely to pick up a phone or answer an online survey and say I'm a Democrat and I'm participating those wealthier Democrats and better educated Democrats because those are the particularly better educated are the are is the is the is the way is a single trait by which you can most easily tell if they're a Harris voter or a trump V Voter they're going to fill the slots so you you say Okay

40% are Democrats so I I haven't I'm not over representing Democrats you are representing Democrats who are more likely to vote for Harris than Democrats who are likely to vote for Trump and that single variable is is according to my sources probably the main reason why the private polling which is more expensively done and wants an needs an accurate poll so they know how to make decisions about the campaign Compared to the public polls which just want to get the poll done so they can publish it for publicity they're not looking to be accurate they're

looking to get it done as cheaply as possible it's more expensive to do private polls K Harris just as you said raised over a billion dollars yeah I asked where that money went I should have pointed out that the Consultants I have noticed just having known consultants for 30 years are richer than They've ever been and I'm not sure the public understands just how rich some I don't think it's true they richer than they've ever been oh really yeah maybe I'm just noticing I'll tell you one one some of them are not flying commercial anymore

yeah so a lot of I think a lot of the change and I don't know like dollar per dollar like are they making 47 cents on the dollar compared to before but I can tell you the Bush campaign really changed the culture in One in one very fundamental way the people who make the ads used to get what was called a percentage of the bond right and and that was ridiculous like 15% 15% so Bush negotiated them down to like 1% or something he also said uh you know salaries are going to be controlled then

when John pedesta was chair of Hillary's campaign in 2016 he said if you're one of the many people traveling between DC and New York you're going to take the bus for 12 bucks as opposed to The train or the plane again that was a very big kind of cultural thing of we're just not going to waste the campaign's money on either spending or salar so my sense is that Consultants don't make what they used to particularly ad buyers but my sense is even pollsters don't make what they used to but they do they do make

a lot and they spend a lot on polls which is why they're better they're just there's a it's it's a qualit it's not a quantitative Difference it's a qualitative difference to say we need an accurate poll so we know how to make decisions about this race so a billion dollars gets dumped into one just one side of one race in the final months and no one's getting rich off that they're getting rich I don't think the Consultants themselves are making as much as they used to that's my impression interesting the Consultants I covered early in

my career were like millionaires who had like Their own planes and vacation houses most of them aren't a few are but most of them now they just don't they just kind of change the culture of how much consultants get paid what do you make of and at you know our age is it bewildering to you to see the the shuffling of the parties you know Dick Cheney and his daughter now campaigning for Harris endorsed Harris yeah and then you see a bunch of people you thought you know Bobby Kennedy right um campaigning for Trump like

what do you make of that well I'll probably anger some viewers here by saying I don't think you can attribute what the chaines did to anything but their belief in the unfitness of Donald Trump to be president and and and growing somewhat from January 6 I don't think the Chinese are going to get rich off of this oh no I don't think they want jobs I don't think I don't I mean I think it's possible Liz would take one But I don't think she's doing it for that at all uh I don't think they hate

Donald Trump for some past greet personal grievance I really do believe that they think what January 6 and and related things and challenging the election say about Trump's character make him unfit for the job and they're willing to support someone who's position on issues they find to be you know socialist or worse so I think they I mean I know them and my take is that What they care about is not January 6 they care about war and the foreign policy stuff I don't I disagree I think I think that matters to them in terms

of of Ukraine and we haven't talked about the forever Wars that's something you and I see eye to eye on and and I think another huge blind spot of the dominant media is is is the is the America's bipartisan from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump disain for the forever Wars and I know The Chinese disagree with that point of view but I don't think that's what motivating the may I I think I think they they um and again this won't be popular with everyone watching us but they they they think that that Trump makes the

planet less safe by not being supportive of Ukraine and and and not uh challenging Putin as aggressively as they'd like they definitely think that yeah but I don't think that's what I don't think I don't think I don't think The the the um the characterization of them as warmongers or lovers of the military-industrial complex I just think they have a different point of view about how to keep the planet and the country safe well they certainly I mean I think both are true yeah well both are true meaning they care about January 6 and they

care about wars War well I think it's overwhelmingly War I think that in their minds they are keeping you know an International order that's been very effective intact and Donald Trump challenges that order and that challenges in their opinion like a ma a massive threat to the world right well I and I think that's sincere they think that well but I also think they're War monkers the same words like I think they think they have high motives they may be high motives but I also think that you know the root of their power is is

planning War like that's what makes them Feel Godlike I dis I agree with you on the substance of their objection I disagree with you about that being uh for Liz at least uh uh whatever what's the opposite of subordinate uh over January 6 I think January 6 really matters to her a lot I just do in terms of characterizing them as warmongers I I I just I just don't agree if I understand the term I don't I don't think they love War I don't think they I don't think they profit from the Military-industrial complex I

don't think think they're on the boards of Defense contractors or or they're looking age much deeper than that yeah but they but they but they are they just have a they have a very different conception than Donald Trump and then a lot of the American people about how to keep us safe their view of how to keep us safe is to get us into endless Wars yeah I completely no no I completely agree with you yeah um and I never Thought I thought all the halberton stuff was absurd I and also a shallow analysis because

I think it's I think it's actually much worse than that but whatever well I mean I think it's worse in the sense that that um they take their intellect and their worldview and they lock us into the loss of American lives and great cost and hurt our reputation around the world exactly the opposite of what they think but I don't question their in case of The chenies I don't question their belief uh it's it's it's not connected self-interest I I I completely agree the reason I'm saying it's worse is because it derives not from greed

but from hubris and I think that's much scarier than greed yeah and in other words if you think you have powers that no human possesses for example the power to foresee the consequences of a big decision that you make yeah you know a rational person by rational I mean Someone informed by humility which is you know a realistic understanding of the limits of his power yep you do something big like invade a country country and an honest person says I have no freaking idea really what happens next and the chines because they are like everyone

in DC bipartisan seized with this crazy hubus they're like no no I know exactly what's going to happen right this will start a domino effect where democracy takes root in the Middle East and like that's insane well the fact is we do know what's going to happen if we look at history it'll end badly EXA we do know the only thing I don't like about when you say warmongers is to me warmonger means somebody who relishes sending the US to war and maybe profits from it or does it because they're insufficiently concerned about the welfare

of the country no no no I'm saying just I'm I'm I'm saying something slightly different that which is someone Who believes that the most important thing he does and I think 90% of Republican Senators feel this way for example um is sort of managed the world yeah and is convinced that he's doing a good job and this is like a high calling and he understands again consequences which no human can so that's deeply offensive to me because I think it's like stupid and corrupt on the most basic level you don't understand the limits of of

human Foresight and that's a massive problem yeah and and again history makes it pretty clear and and it infuriates me when people say Trump hates NATO Trump wants to destroy NATO he doesn't he wants to reform it so that it's fair to American taxpayers and that its Mission matches up with our security needs I totally agree I by contrast do hate NATO and like to destroy it so I'm the radical Trump is totally moderate on this I agree with you I mean I I I would Only want to keep it if it were really reformed

but I think there's a I think there is still purpose for it there could be but man does it hurt the countries that uh participate in my opinion it eliminates their sovereignty and foreign troops on your soil like that's a big thing yeah the problem is they just don't have an there's there's it's the best arrangement for maximizing our safety even even with all the flaws if it if it Were reformed it would be it would be it would be it even flawed it's probably still the best arrangement but if it were reformed I think

it clearly would be well Europe is Western Europe is done um its economy is in in shambles well but it's not going away being sold to the Martians I it's still going to be filled with invaded Finnish and belgians and Dutch it's all going to be there you know as someone who's part finish that it hurts me even To hear the word finish because I just think that was a country that had sovereignty that earned it yeah by beating you know one of the world's great powers in an actual battle the winter war of 1940

and they just gave it up to Nato and they're going to just really suffer as a result but I mean would the world be better if they all had their own robust armies no I mean but I I you know navies and Air Force and you know you you could Easily Envision like Regional cooperation between say the four Nordic countries r or Eastern why is but why is that better than a a a continent wide uh Force to deal with the realities which is Russia and China are going to threaten us for a long time

but it's not continent wide actually it's there's just an extension of a far away Empire that doesn't have any of their interests and you know at heart and uh and and also it it degrades the spirit of a Country to have foreign on soil I agree with that you look at England and it's like why why is it collapsing so fast and I think a lot of that is and I don't think anyone meant to do this actually I think a lot of the worst things that happen to your very wise and true point about

the Chinese I think they think they're doing the right thing yeah yeah I think the people who administer the EU think they're doing the right thing I think your average NATO Commander thinks He's doing the right thing but the effect of having foreign troops on your soil for 80 years is to eliminate any pride in your country yeah I I I agree and I think you see that Japan's probably the country know best yes and America's True presence is just deleterious to their feeling like an adult country totally and that's one of the reasons they

have such ey suici same with South Korea I agree but but again there are threats in the world that are Serious that America cannot as easily deal deal with deterrence and spying and uh and uh action if necessary if we don't have North Korea Australia or South Korea Australia Japan and NATO countries uh with some degree of military cooperation I just think it's it's just it's just the reality of of real estate and how long it takes to get places you know we cannot defend and deter from the continental United States just not going to

happen to the same Degree that's necessary to deal with Middle East and Russia and China and North Korea yeah you know it just it just it's just a requirement geographically to be there but I agree with you in terms it really is kind of like by proxy it's like we we're killing the people we claim to love well but but but one but one of the powers of Trump's idea is if they paid more for it if more of it was theirs I think they it would Be less infantilizing and and it would be uh

uh they'd be more full Partners as opposed to being under the American umbrella part of the challenge is also their nuclear weapons right we don't want these other countries to have nuclear weapons that's exactly and if we're not partnered with the Japanese and the and the and the South Koreans and the Europeans they're going to want nuclear weapons and Japan especially because Japan I think people it sounds Like you like and go know know the area but the one thing I'm not no expert on Asia but having spent time there the one thing I'm always

shocked by is how totally freaked out by Japan every other country is particularly China yeah and and South Korea too their Ally for sure you don't think of Japan as a marshal power CU it's not no but but 1945 wasn't that long ago for them exactly right yeah and that's and that's again there's down sides to our relationship people in Alwa hate the United States because of our military presence but the upside is we have we have effectively restrained them and allowed them to become part of the community of Nations and develop a relationship with

South Korea that's stronger now it's one of the things Biden has done successfully in foreign policy it's stronger now than it's been since the end of the war in part because they do not have a military that's threatening to these other countries It's yeah the Japanese are so elaborately nice they're such wonderful people it's hard to imagine what they were not that long it's amazing the turn in one generation and I mean if anything they could use a little bit more of the fierceness I agree in the current generation but they've been turned into just

completely defanged in a way that I think has hurt the society but had to be done to some extent because of the the Spectre of the end of the war and the The strong feelings as you said in China and South Korea wow to this day really really uh ja as view of the Japanese yeah it's really Noti now you ask me about Bobby Kennedy um predicting or explaining Bobby Kennedy is like predicting or explaining Kum Jong-un I mean he's just a he's a Mercurial man that Bobby Kennedy so why is he for Trump I

think he's anti-establishment and he believes that the the current uh military situation uh food safety um uh Um Foreign Wars all of that is is requires profound change and so I think there's some really strong ideological ties to Trump I think he also is angry at the Democratic party for keeping him from being able to run for the nomination fair Fairly and for uh attacking him personally so I think that's part of it too and I think Trump offered him the better deal for what it would mean to to endorse him but but I think

it's a mistake to just say he's a C who who wanted a big role I think food safety Foreign Wars military industrial complex yeah all that is if he were if he were 50 uh 20 years younger had a normal voice and stayed on message I think he would have been a formidable he'd be the president of the United States formidable his his announcement speech was one of the best and most important speeches of The Last Five Years by any politician but he simply doesn't have the discipline to do This and and in that sense

he's a great companion for Donald Trump who also Lacks the discipline to stay focused on the core issues that have immense peel across party lines not just Fringe so he told me um I think a lot of him I think your analysis is fair but he told me that the Democratic party didn't even consider talking to him um and you know clearly he's got a real constituency he's an energetic man and he's got a lot going for him despite you know the Deficits and so like why wouldn't you make a good faith effort to bring

him over to the party that he grew up in I don't understand that I think that um you mean you mean after he he got out of the yeah or he's considering getting out obviously he's considering getting out we knew that was going to happen so like why would the comma people try for him they just decided to not Elevate him by treating him like a serious person it's a Decision they made to just brand him as a cook um I I'd love to see a parallel universe if Biden hadn't run and he had run

for the Democratic nomination I would have been curious to see how he would have done um but they just decided when he was running for the nomination to destroy him and he made it easy through his past and his present but um having done that I think they just felt they couldn't suddenly change and decide he was a good Guy it's it it it does seem like and Bernie Sanders obviously felt this very personally twice but it seems like the real Sin in the Democratic party is trying to bring any kind of change yeah being

anti-establishment being populist um you know Bernie had had Bernie played under Fair rules I think he would have been the nominee at least one of the two times but um that's you know that's politics and and whether you've got an incumbent like Joe Biden or a quasi Incumbent like Hillary Clinton um you know the party establishment's going to do what it does and and and pre- Trump that would have happened as well in the Republican party so okay let's just I've got two more big questions for you um first I should have asked you earlier

who is running the country right now do you know um uh yeah Joe Biden and uh white house chief of staff and Senior advisers to the president and definitely Tony blinkin and Jake Sullivan yeah Um if you manage Joe Biden's time if you recognize when he's up to it and when he's not he can still make a lot of decisions and I believe does so I don't think there's any Barack Obama or all these other things speculate about but the white house chief of staff has to manage that and then there's a few very close

personal aids to the president who aren't famous people but they they help figure out when to plug him into this and and Minimize the prospect that a big decision will be need to be made at a time when he's not equipped to make it it's not a great situation but but it is it is as evidence the fact that that you know the number of times displayed uh abject inability you know it's probably 25 times where it's just abject given the circumstances that's relatively small and it's Testament to not just the the fierceness of the

conspiracy but the the degree to which It's well-managed you know have to have to understand under the circumstances if there's not going to be an invocation of the 25th Amendment if he's not going to resign we have to be grateful that it's well-managed let's say Trump wins um three weeks from today what happens the Democratic party just I mean as you said um a lot of Democrats maybe the majority believe that Trump becoming president Again is the worst thing that ever could happen so how do they respond to that I say this not flippantly I

think it will be the cause of the greatest Mental Health crisis in the history of the country I don't I think tens of millions of people will question their connection to the the nation their connection to other human beings their connection to uh their vision of what their future for them and their children could be like and I think that Will be require an enormous amount of access to mental health professionals I think it'll lead to uh uh trauma in the workplace I think there'll be some degree of are you being Ser prot 100% serious

100% serious I think there'll be alcoholism there'll be broken marriages there'll be what yeah they they they think he's the worst person possible to be president and having won by the hand of Jim Comey and fluke in 2016 and then performed an office for four years and Denied who won the election last time and January 6 the fact that under a fair election America chose by the rules pre-agreed to Donald Trump again I think it will cause the biggest melal Health crisis in the history of America and I don't think it will be kind of

a passing thing that by the inauguration will be fine I think it will be sustained and and unprecedented and hideous and I don't think the country's ready for it so mental health Crises often manifest in violence yeah I think there'll be some violence I think there'll be there'll be workplace fights there'll be fights at birthday kids birthday parties uh I think there'll be protests that will turn violent I hope they're not but I think there will be some but I I think it will be more it'll be less anger and more um a a failure

to understand uh how it could happen you know like like like the death of a child or your spouse announcing that that that You know your wife announcing she's a lesbian and she's leaving you for your best friend like a like a like a something that's that's so traumatic that it is impossible for even the most mentally healthy person to truly uh process and incorporate into their daily life I hope I'm wrong but but I think that I think that's what's going to happen for tens of millions of people because they they think that that

that that their fellow citizens Supporting Trump is a sign of fundamental evil at the heart of their fellow citizens and of the nation that's how they view it well that's very heavy yeah so that's one thing I think will happen and then I hope that Trump handles it well I hope that he recognizes his both his responsibility and his self-interest and that he chooses in his words and in his uh cabinet and White House appointments nominations and in his initial Legislative agenda I hope he sees a Confluence of interest between minimizing that Mental Health crisis

and the success of his presidency and I think he might uh I I'm I'm bullish on him seeing the alignment of those two things wow um and if he loses what happens um well it'll depend on how he loses it'll depend on if it's close and if he and his supporters see uh uh uh wrongdoing in casting and Counting A ballot in the seven states it's very difficult to for me to imagine her winning by enough that that doesn't happen I've been disappointed in the efforts uh in the states uh there are some in every

one of the seven but they're not mature enough to prepare to explain to people elections are messy but this one wasn't stolen our electoral votes were awarded correctly to KLA Harris I think if that Somehow goes well and if Donald Trump himself doesn't challenge the results Twitter can do what it wants to do I think um I think that uh the the negative impact of her winning on the psychology uh of of the losers will not be as great but I don't think it'll be nothing and I think there'll be all sorts of things law

fair um uh replacing Biden with her after you know Trump had spent Millions trying to beat Biden um uh uh the um the Media's completely you full body on the scale I think all those things will lead to mass skepticism that the election was fair and I think it'll be up to luck that um that the result is clearcut enough that that people don't feel reflexively it was unfair I think it'll be up to what Trump's attitude is and I think it'll be up to the governors of the states whether they're Republicans Or democrats and

most the battle Battlegr State Governors are Democrats to um to have be is transparent and and clear about any irregularity and and it's potential impact on the outcome if all that happens uh and kamla Harris is decides to in the transition and in her inaugural address and in her legislative agenda to um to be uh gracious I think I think that we could be in a decent place I I think they'll probably be a Republican Senate and I think people Have failed to game out if there's a Republican Senate Democratic house Democratic president all of

Maga and and those unhappy with her winning will put their um chips in the Senate and say it's up to the Senate to keep her from turning this into a far-left country and that goes first and foremost in the initial instance to nominations I think it'll be very difficult for her to nominate anyone acceptable to the left who can be Confirmed by that Senate so they they'll just keep people in place well I mean you can't be acting forever it's a very limited what you can do is an acting secretary and she'll want her people

so I worry a lot about that uh you know we one of the huge dysfunctions in this country regardless of party is that is the and every president will tell you this and probably has is the difficulty of getting your your people in place because of the background checks and the Confirmation process you think about her she started running for president not that long ago she hasn't had time to start a rigorous transition I really do worry about her even if she emerges from this election with the country in love with her not at whole

country but enough to have a honeymoon if she Rises to the occasion if she if if world leaders don't seem um poised to take advantage of her in some way even if all that happens I really do worry about her Getting a government in place because I don't think a Republican Senate is going to confirm the kind of people who Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and AOC are going to demand her to nominate you hear people mutter Darkly about some kind of civil conflict the possibility of that are you worried about that less than most

but I don't dismiss it entirely again I'm a big believer in Governors right civil Conflict will take place in the state of some Governor by definition I hope the governors all have great bipartisan plans for minimizing this and for policing peaceful protests and not allowing them to escalate but not trampling on the First Amendment um I think I think it we could have violence regardless of who wins I think both sides are capable of that I think the chances of it are minimized if the losing presidential candidate makes it Clear they don't want that to

happen and if the governors are Vigilant in devising plans to to to balance Public Safety with First Amendment um if those things happen I I really I'm not all that concerned about about violence if those things don't happen I'm deeply concerned about it Mark Alper I am grateful I mean it that you are still a powerful voice in media after all these years well you're very nice I it's it's great to be here and uh your uh your um Place in the world as you know we have lots of mutual friends who say to me

and to other people you know what's happened to Tucker what has happened to Tucker and uh and I say let me go find out I'll be back so I'll go report back you're right you're right here right here good-natured iconic clastic interested in the world and as we say unafraid to stand up when you agree and disagree my my my cousins all say that what happened to Tucker we're worried about him yeah I You know I have dinner all the time with people who've known you for longer than I've known you and they just all

what happened to Tucker what happened to him what happened to Tucker well I just it was too corrupt for me had to leave yeah but so I'm I'm glad I can I can go back to New York and maybe I'll do a zoom give them all my best say I will I'll say here's here's what happened to Tucker he's got a nice desk nice table with some good microphones sturdy Exactly eats right exercises when possible when possible you're nice to host me thank you I love it thank you good to see you so it turn

turns out that YouTube is suppressing our show I know shocking that in an election year with everything it's stake Google would be putting its thumb on the scale and preventing you from hearing anything that the people in charge don't want you to hear but it turns out it's happening so what can you Do about it well we could whine about it but that's a waste of time we're not in charge of Google or we could find a way around it a way that you could actually get information that's true it's not intentionally deceptive and the

way to do that on YouTube we think is to subscribe to our Channel subscribe and you'll have a much higher chance of hearing what we say and we hope you will