after periods of greed fomo and Euphoria it's necessary for that energy and emotion to come out of the market so sentiment can reset and get ready for its next move it goes without saying that the last couple of months have certainly seen some extreme levels of emotion but the question is has sentiment reset enough to prepare crypto for its next leg some data suggests there's still some more pain to come before we print a final low so in this video here we will be reviewing the market data and macro Trends so we can engage what
is likely coming up next before we dive into all of that please remember that I'm not a financial advisor so always do your own due diligence and research and past results and not indicative of future performance before we take a look at the data just a few words on sentiment and sentiment resetting uh and before you pick up on all the terrible spelling on this image here that's thanks to chat GPT it hasn't really figured out spelling yet but it definitely captured the image of what I was going for but when we're looking at sentiment
what it's referring to is the overall attitude orve mood in the market when it comes to a particular asset class or just the overall economy and what resetting means is that after you see an excessive period of either too much greed hope and Euphoria it just takes some time for that to come out of the market the market often needs to stabilize that excessive Behavior now sometimes that behavior can go on for an extended period of time which is when you get those massive blowoff tops in the market now if you're wondering what a blowoff
top is just go look at some meme coin charts which have pumped and dumped so there's no saying to how long that Euphoria and can stick around for but when you start to see the price ranges balance out after a big pump up which is what we saw in Bitcoin and crypto at the end of last year and then the price starts to form a bit of a ceiling and that upward momentum slows down that's showing us by the way of the price chart that the sentiment is changing and that greed hope and Euphoria is
coming out of the market and when that starts to happen often it needs to actually flip that sentiment on its head in the other direction to shake the weak hands and the new people out of their positions which is what ultimately forms the higher lows in the market now if this happens we see this resetting in sentiment but the market breaks to a lower low then that can be an indication of the macro Trends actually turning so when we get to the charts in just a moment it's going to be really important to see where
the reset actually happens and what the price ranges are doing and where those lows do form but just to bring it back to the sentiment and what resetting is all about the example I have here is that if the overall attitude becomes too greedy the mood will need to become neutral or even fearful before the price can resume its longer term Trend so the longer term trend is a really important thing to keep in mind here we can actually track some data to let us know what that sentiment is doing and what those longer term
Trends are and that's where we come over to this data here which I started sharing with you last week it's called fomo finder it's on alphar analysis. and we're looking at what the sentiment typically does at different stages of the cycle and like I pointed out for you guys last week when we start to see some extended periods of greed which is orange on this indicator here it does take some time for us to basically go through a neutral state and often Panic comes in around the end of those periods in the market so you
can see that happen of course at the cycle low there's lots of panic and lots of purple there then we saw some more panic in the August low what we've started to see are only just some shortterm periods of panic only lasting a day or so which doesn't even SHP on this chart here but you can see we went through an extended period of greed at the end of last year and we yet to see a real big flash out in terms of panic so at least going by this one indicator alone it does suggest
that we' need to see sentiment reset a bit more before we Mark a final low but this is just one tool and this one tool is not the be all and end all and if our Trends start to turn before we see this flip to panic then that's a more important indicator in my books and that's why I always come back to the price charts and the trends and the breakouts to paint a picture of what's exactly going in the market when it comes to price because price is King at the end of the day
everyone trades price they don't just trade sentiment specifically looking at this one indicator it is suggesting there needs to be a bit more Panic now when it comes to our traditional fear and greed we are finally seeing the sentiment beginning to reset we are now sitting at some consistent greed at around 43 one of the lowest readings in quite a while now so it is nice to see the sentiment start to flip and reset while the price ranges are still forming higher lows again the longer term Trends what those lows are doing is really important
and we are seeing the greed coming out of the market while price support the major price support does maintain on a chart it looks like this where we have the fear and greed indicator at the bottom this is part of the Tia indicator Suite there's a link for it in the description below but you can see how we are dropping off in in terms of sentiment while the lows are still getting higher and the major support is still holding so that's not to say that a low is in but it is to say major support
is holding while the sentiment is changing so while we're yet to see Panic come into the market when it comes to our fomo finder it goes without saying that fear is certainly re-entering the space and it won't take much for us to see that fear flip into some panic and a capitulation which is what I discuss at the end of this post here saying that the end of Corrections often ends in a capitulation and panic so whether that happens this time or not of course remains to be seen it doesn't have to happen it is
just something that does happen often enough some other metrics we track when it comes to sentiment and also getting a lead on those Trends are our 24-hour volume our long short ratio and our liquidations now in the last 24 hours we've seen 143 billion change hands we're up by about 37% so it is nice to see the volume increasing when we see decreasing volume environments that's a big warning sign for uptrends which has given us many leads at the rising prices over the last few months and also throughout a lot of last year when I
started sharing this with you it did lead to only short-term rallies followed by Massive rejections so we want to be seeing Rising volume to get some sustainable Trends we haven't seen that yet which is going to be more evident when I get to this chart here but our overall volume at least for the last 24 hours is ticking up our long short ratio is sitting at around 49.2% Long versus 50.8% short what we use this indicator for here is looking out for some reliable breakouts once we hover around that 50/50 ratio IO and not only
that when the ratio gets too out of balance favoring one side of the market you can often see price reject away from that direction and snap back in the other direction now a recent example of this is when we saw the differential at around 4% even more than 4% actually favoring the short side of the market the price got way too overextended to the southide and then it snapped back up wrecking a lot of short Traders now it works for both sides of the market we are sitting pretty close to a 50/50 ratio so it's
not giving us any leads right now when it comes to our liquidation d we're sitting at some very low levels of liquidations at around $226 million in a 24-hour period we want to be seeing some larger spikes in liquidations to be more reliable indicators for pivot Points be it Peaks or troughs now the most recent one we had was at the current low that we saw just a few days ago on the 3rd of February and so far that has remained the low after that couple of billion dollars actually more than a couple of billion
dollars in liquidations so this is one of the most important lows to be tracking in the market right now which comes in at around $91,000 just for some round numbers there so if and when we're going to see another massive spike in liquidations that will often lead to a pivot point and we're just yet to really cement the low in the market right now so I suspect we may still be seeing a bit more pain with some larger liquidations to the south side of the market at least just using this one piece of the puzzle
the daily exchange volume is one of the most underrated charts in my opinion now this is a volume chart showing us how much volume is in the market averaged out over a 7-Day period and what we saw throughout all of last year was the fact that any rally since Mar March just had a lower probability of being sustainable rallies was only when we started to break some tops and get some higher lows in our volume chart was my indicator that rallies from then were likely going to be stronger rallies and that's what led to that
breakout or at least this was our lead that the breakouts were going to be very solid breakouts into that Peak what we've seen since then is just a massive indecision when it comes to our volume we now have lower lows and higher highs which is showing that there's no one side of the market which is heavily favored right now there's a bit of indecision on all fronts and that's also showing up in the volume but what I want be seeing here to get more confident of some more sustainable moves to the north side for some
higher lows above around that $ 85 to 95 billion per day we're hovering right around that level at the moment so this is something I'll come back to for you guys time and time again because if and when we get those high lows above around 85 to 95 billion per day I suspect those next breakouts to the north side are going to be very genuine moves where we can see some sustainable rallies getting to much higher prices and Lasting for longer periods of time so the good news on this chart here is the fact that
we are still printing broader higher lows we're still tracking above the volume lows from early in January and also early in February so we are printing those high lows which is good news we're just yet to kind of break those tops and also hold above those resistance areas I was talking about previously now to wrap up the market data discussion we'll take a look at forexfactory.com which lets us know when the high impact announcements are all around the world now I really don't care about what the fundamental data comes back at because this is all
about those fundamental announcements it's about the dates and times of these high impact announcements cuz they often lead to increased levels of volatility and when there's increased levels of volatility we start to get some abnormal moves in the market and markets don't like abnormal moves they often snap back in the other direction if we start to see things get out of balance now it's more obvious when it shows up on a chart and I will show you on the charts when they do occur but just to strip this right back if this is a new
to you what we're paying attention to are the dates and times don't get wrapped up in what the data is because everyone tries to speculate what the data is going to do to price but price is going to do whatever the hell it wants to do but it's the dates and times which are the volatility events which lead to those breakouts and Trend changes so for this week we have a few things coming up which all the Talking Heads are going to be talking about we have the FED Jerome pal testifying we have the core
CPI numbers and then at the end of the week we have the PPI unemployment claims and also some retail sales which are certainly going to be shaking the stock markets up a lot and often that trickle overs into cryptocurrency as well so there's a fair Big G on this week when it comes to fundamental announcements and high impact announcements so just be prepared for some increased levels of volatility that wraps up the market data and upcoming announcements now for a quick look at the charts starting off with Bitcoin on the weekly time frame now we
did find support last week at the exact area we're expecting to see support which comes from the previous cycle top to the high before the high and our trend line which extends out into the future it's acted as a significant amount of resistance and support we are still seeing support at this level so just to keep things really simple as it's very important to do for those macro charts and even short-term charts as well is that if we start to see something different and by different it would be a breakdown of this support Zone failed
retest of the support Zone that's letting us know that the sentiment has changed in a bigger way and we can start to expect some significantly lower prices down to those next major support zones the next major support Zone comes in at around $80,000 but before we even worry about those Underside support zones we just have to continue to respect support for as long as it does hold and it's clearly still holding when it comes to the macro Trends they remain up on the monthly and also the one we two bar time frames so the Bulls
are still clearly bullish supporting prices at higher levels those macro Trends haven't changed it takes a lot for the macro Trends to change exactly as it should be so if you only focus on those High term time frames there's really been a whole lot of nothing to do as price does oscillate within around a $20,000 range on The Daily time frame the 1day one bar and one day two bar time frames do remain down these are our lead on the higher term time frames and we did have a weekly uptrend but since these two short-term
Trends did flip it broke the weekly uptrend the question now just does remain as to whether we're also going to be seeing a weekly down Trend now for me to be getting more confident that a low is actually in I want to be seeing some Trend changes above $100,500 like I've been pointing out for you guys since getting this massive capitulation anything up to these zones is still high risk of failing and that's basically all we've seen so far now for a short-term lead that we're going to be retesting lows is for us to see
some changes of trend beneath around $95,500 all we saw in the recent hours was a week below with a snap back above but if we see something different and the Bears remaining bearish beneath that 95 5 then look out for retest of those lows and the potential to go through now I'll be doing a deep dive into the macro and short-term Trends in Bitcoin old coins and mean coins so make sure you're following along for that and in the meantime if you want more from us in Tia crypto including our free weekly report where we
cover Bitcoin altcoins and the real estate cycle there's a link in the description below for that drop your details in so the next Edition hit your inbox but that's all I've got for you in today's market update wishing you more health wealth and happiness and until next time I'll catch you then [Music]
