In this video you are going to learn all the ICT Concepts in a logical order once and for all so you can stop jumping between videos on YouTube and most importantly you are going to learn the truth behind the concept this video provides everything you need to know about the ICT method we are also going to talk about several wrong ideas that ICT Traders were led to believe by watching this course you can Save a lot of time and money by learning all of this as quickly as possible possible and also by avoiding many traps
in the ICT Method Keep in mind that this video is a description of the method not a prescription there's a lot to talk about so without further Ado let's begin by listing the ICT Concepts understanding them and discovering what they actually are let's begin with the concept of Swing points this is a very simple idea A swing High occurs when there is a lower high to the left and a lower high to the right of a candlestick in the same way a swing low occurs when there is a higher low to the left and a
higher low to the right of a Candlestick this is just another way of describing highs and lows in the chart notice that all important highs and lows are swing points but not all swing points are important highs and lows for example in this chart we can see an Important low right here notice how it is a swing low there's a higher low to the left and a higher low to the right of the candle that forms the low to the right of the chart we can find an example of a swing high that doesn't become
an important high if you investigate this chart you'll find many examples of Swing points most of which end up being unimportant another detail here is that other Traders have arrived at the same Concept so this is not exclusive to the ICT method two of them come to mind immediately lendry pivots and Bill Williams fractals indicator the lry pivot is the same idea of Swing points and it is attributed to a well-known Trader in the technical analysis Community called Dave Landry Landry described the same idea but he used it as a setup to trade gaps Bill
Williams fractals indicator was developed in the 90s and is also another Way of objectively defining highs and lows the fractal indicator basically shows the highest high or the lowest low among five candles the only difference is that LR pivots and the idea of Swing points consider three candles while Williams fractals consider five candles in theory you can use any odd number of candles to determine highs and lows like this in this chart you can see the Williams fractals indicator showing you important highs and lows notice that Williams fractals filter some of the unimportant highs and
lows by considering a higher number of periods in summary the idea of Swing points is is not exclusive to the ICT method other Traders have come up with the same idea before let's now move on to another concept that spawns from the idea of Swing points which is the idea of buy side and sell-side liquidity in the ICT method the reason ICT Traders care about the concept of Swing points is that Traders usually Place their stop-loss orders right above highs or right below lows this is a common practice in trading traders who go short after
a swing High high will place their stop-loss order above the swing high recalling that the stop-loss order of a short trade is a buy stop order many Traders also attempt to place buy stop orders to get in the market right above a high traders who go long after a swing Low will place their stop-loss order below the swing low recalling that the stop-loss order of a long trade is a sell stop order many Traders also attempt to place sell stop orders to get in the market right below a low according to the ICT method the
smart money will maneuver the buy stop orders above swing highs and the sell stop orders below swing lows they call orders above swing highs buy side liquidity and orders below swing lows sell-side Liquidity the idea that price continuously takes the so-called buy side and sell-side liquidity is obvious there is no other possibility it's not exactly because price is attracted to these areas it's because it's the only way price can move there are a few clarifications to make here the first one is the idea of liquidity I see many ICT Traders throwing the term liquidity around
without actually knowing what it means liquidity is not a price level Simply put liquidity is the ease with which a market can be traded without causing significant changes in price liquidity is linked to Market depth which is the number of orders in each price level the greater the market depth the greater the liquidity liquidity is indeed higher right above highs and right below lows since those are natural places for stop orders to exist but Market depth varies significantly in other areas of the chart too it's very Important that you understand that Concepts like liquidity and
Market depth were not invented by ICT these ideas began to be studied more deeply in Market micr Structure Theory which is a field that emerged in the 70s and 80s although the concept of liquidity is much older than that if you think learning ICT concept is difficult try reading a serious book about Market micr structure and you'll change your mind very quickly we'll talk more about this Later another point of confusion here is the terms buy side and sell side in finance the terms buy side refers to the institutions that trade on behalf of others
we're talking about institutions like hedge funds proprietary trading firms Pension funds Sovereign wealth funds and so on the term saleside however refers to the institutions that facilitate trading these are firms like brokerages research firms and Market making firms by the way Market making is made by prominent institutions such as Citadel group virtual Financial Chain Street Capital and the list goes on notice that there isn't just one market maker notice also that there is competition among market makers well talk about this later in Greater detail too this piece of information alone is enough for you to
understand that the claim that there is one algorithm behind price is false we'll take a deep dive Into algorithms later going back to the idea of buy side and sell-side liquidity in the ICT method after understanding these other ideas we can see how the terms buy side and sell-side liquidity are used incorrectly by ICT Traders these concepts are caricatures of the real thing which is a lot more complicated than what ICT Traders believe but again as we go through the course this is going to become Clearer let's move on to another ICT concept called equal
highs and lows equal highs and lows are highs or lows that sit in the same price level or at least very close to one another for example in this chart I marked a bunch of lows that happened around the same level creating a cluster of lows this is exactly the same idea of support and resistance lines which is perhaps the most well-known idea in technical analysis this idea of support and Resistance can be traced back to Charles da in the late 1800s and early 1900s gain more popularity throughout the 20th century with the work of
Richard shabaker Robert Edwards and John mcke it is self-evident that the idea of equal highs and lows is the same as support and resistance there is no need to change the name of one of the most famous ideas in technical analysis at this only adds confusion the next concept we'll talk About is called discount and premium to understand these we need to measure the range of a price movement which is the distance between two Market extremes we then divide this range in two halves the upper half is called premium and the lower half is called
discount the idea here is that long trades should be open in discounts and short trades should be open in premium once again there is absolutely nothing new about this the idea that a Trader Should get in a long position near a low and in a short position near a high in order to have a logical place to put a stop loss was already being talked about in the beginning of the 20th century and not because it's revolutionary it's because it's the obvious thing to do the only alternative is to get in the middle of nowhere
in the chart far from a logical Market structure the whole point of technical analysis is to improve the Precision and Timing of entries and exits so again there is nothing new about this another problem with this one is similar to what we observe with the buy side and sell-side liquidity concept the misuse of terms that are found in other areas of Finance for example a stock is set to be traded at a discount when it's below fair value and in premium when it's above fair value and that involves many other factors beyond observ in the
position of price In relation to the previous price movement another example is in forward discount or premium in Forex markets in FX markets the forward exchange rate may differ from the spot rate due to interest rate differentials between two countries judging whether price is in discount or premium is a lot more complicated than seeing where it is in relation to the previous price movement judging that by looking at the price chart only is merely a technical Analysis perspective let's now move on to another ICT concept called Ot Ot stands for optimal trade entry this is
a specific set of retracement ratios that aim to capture a good long Trad entry in discount or a good short trade entry in premium using the ICT jargon in this illustration you can see the OT for a long trade in this other illustration you can see the OT for a short Trade the problem with this is that the range of ratios Falls almost exactly in the same place outlined by two of the most common Fibonacci ratios the 0.618 and the 0.786 if you think this is a new concept or a revolutionary one you don't have
basic knowledge of technical analysis in this chart we can see a standard Fibonacci retracement tool the black lines represent the Fibonacci levels used since the 1930s in the second image you can see that I Mark the ratios proposed by the ict's OT Concept in red it becomes immediately obvious what the problem is when you see price reacting to an OT it's not because ICT said it would it's partly because Fibonacci ratios have been part of the technical analysis culture for almost 100 years so there is a self-fulfilling prophecy effect associated with these levels the ratio
in the middle that doesn't fall almost Exactly in any Fibonacci ratio is simply the midpoint between the two ratios that do Fibonacci ratios were popularized in trading by Ralph Nelson Elliott the creator of the Elliot wave theory during the 1930s Elliot observed that prices tend to move in waves or patterns and that these movements often inine with Fibonacci ratios in other words the idea that price retraces and reacts to specific Fibonacci ratios is almost 100 years old if you want to learn more about Elliot wave in Fibonacci trading I have one free course for each
in my channel I will leave the links in the description let's now talk about Market structure under the ICT method the way ICT Traders Define an uptrend is by observing higher highs and higher lows and the way they Define a downtrend is by observing lower highs and lower lows that is indeed the best way to identify A trend but this definition doesn't come from ICT this idea originated in the Dow theory in the late 19 century and early 20th century Charles D also talked about the way to identify a change in the trend when a
swing low is broken in an uptrend there's a change in Trend when a swing high is broken in a downtrend there is a change in Trend th and other Market technicians that came later also talked about different ways that can happen let's observe the main three Possibilities in the case of an uptrend transitioning to a downtrend the first case is what Crow out and others call a failure swing price is making higher highs and higher lows and then it fails to produce a higher high after this failure price breaks an established low creating a lower
low the lower high just before the lower low is logically called failure swing because it fails to advance the trend the second case is what da called A non-failure swing that happens when a higher high is immediately followed by a lower low in the case of an uptrend it's called non-f failure swing simply because it's the opposite idea of the failure swing this is exactly what ICT Traders call Market structure shift but once again this idea was described by Charles D Richard wof and others in great detail so it's more than 100 years old the
third possibility is the formation of a double top which is when A flat high is formed before the lower low it's something in between the failure swing and the non-failure swing in a way a double top is part of the classic chart patterns that ICT Traders believe to be used only by unaware retail traders in terms of relevance failure swings non-f failure swings and double tops or bottoms are equal this is the foundational Market structure laid out by Charles D if you want to learn more About the Dow Theory I have a free course here
in the channel too we move on now to what ICT Traders call Advanced Market structure according to the ICT me method Advanced Market structure involves the ideas of short-term highs and lows intermediate term highs and lows and long-term highs and lows short-term highs and lows are basically the same idea of Swing highs and lows we saw before an intermediate term higher low is the same idea of the Short-term higher low but on a larger scale alluding to the fact that price is fractal which we'll talk about later so an intermediate term High happens when there's
a lower short-term High High to the right and to the left of it an intermediate term low happens when there is a higher short-term low to the right and to the left of it there's also what IC Traders call a rebalanced intermediate term high or low which is a high or low that forms from a Fair value Gap don't worry if you don't understand what a fair value Gap is we're going to talk about it in a moment a long-term high or low is the extreme that is formed off of a higher time frame level
level as you can see this leads to the idea of multi-time frame analysis and logically the idea that price is fractal the idea that price is fractal is not new once again Charles Dal already had an intuition about this D Described price in terms of primary Trends secondary swings and daily fluctuations in the same way that ripples happen within waves and waves happen within Tides Ralph Nelson Elliot expanded the idea of price fractal with the L8 wave theory assuming that the 53 wave pattern happens within itself across multiple scales interestingly these theories were developed a
few decades before the concept of fractals was formalized in Mathematics by Mandel br medob br has one of the greatest Finance books ever written in my opinion called the misbehavior of markets a fractal view of financial turbulence I highly recommend you read it another important point Point here is that ICT Traders don't realize the contradiction in accepting prices fractal while believing that price is delivered by an algorithm the reason price is fractal is precisely because markets are a Decentralized mechanism where diverse Market participants with different time Horizons coexist interact and intersect in the same playing
field so to speak if markets were delivered by an algorithm they would not be fractal the idea that price is fractal leads traders to think that multi-time frame analysis is a solution but multitime frame analysis is a blasting in the curse so to speak there is no way to clearly establish the limits of how much information you Should consider in the analysis when you use multiple time frames and increasing the amount of information you need to consider is also a big problem if you take a look at the name of my channel you can see
that I'm an advocate for the fractal Market hypothesis and I have actually studied the science behind it and I have a couple of courses that deal with fractal price action Chaos Theory fractal geometry and nonlinear Dynamics in summary if you believe price Is fractal while believing is delivered by an algorithm you have cognitive dissonance which is when you believe to contradictory idea simultaneously without realizing it this leads to rationalization which is why you end up needing to trust one person to guide everything you do I'm sure not all ICT Traders believe that price is delivered
by an algorithm and I don't know if ICT claims this in this way but many ICT Traders do believe that so we need to Address the problem the way to reconcile these ideas is by realizing that the market is composed of diverse Market participants and also diverse types of algorithms with different purposes as we'll see later but this debunks this idea that price is controlled by an algorithm worse yet an algorithm that was coded by ICT like some Traders believe let's move on to what ICT Traders call a market structure shift the market structure shift
is very Simple to observe a bearish market structure shift happens when the market produces a higher high and then a lower low the idea is that when price breaks a previous low like that it will retrace back to give a short trade opportunity a bullish Market structure shift happens when the market produces a lower low and then a higher high the idea is that when price breaks a previous high like that it will retrace back to give a long trade Opportunity this pattern is indeed a reliable pattern in the markets but it did not come
from ICT as we already saw the same pattern has received different names throughout almost a 100 Years of evolution in Western technical analysis the first one to talk about this was Charles da with the idea of non-failure Swing it's the same pattern a little later in the 20th century Richard wof described the same pattern but using a different logic in Adaptations of the wov method this pattern is often referred to as jump across the creek in the case of a bullish pattern and fall through the ice in the case of a bearish pattern I have
a free wof trading course in my channel if you want to get into it this pattern can also be described under the light of Elliot like we can see here and rather annoyingly to ICT Traders some classic chart patterns also imply the same thing for example falling and Rising wedges Also imply ICT Traders called a market structure shift and these patterns were outlined long before algorithms in electronic markets existed the trade entry is identified using a simple trend line not a fair value Gap OT or order block if you want to learn the other classic
chart patterns I also have a free course here in the Channel Jesse Livermore one of the most famous traders in Wall Street from 1910 to 1930 had the same Trend change rules Once in a downtrend the first penetration of stop losses would signal the beginning of an uptrend and the second penetration would confirm the new uptrend in the second half of the 20th century a famous engineer and Market analyst called Arthur marrow pioneered the study of chart patterns and he outlined 16 patterns of Market structure which are called M and W patterns what ICT Traders
Now call a market structure shift was already outlined in the 16 M&W Patterns the point is that this pattern is very old and it has received many different names throughout its history which mainly occurred during the 20th century in a time before algorithms and electronic markets existed notice that the renaming of technical analysis Concepts is also not a new thing it has happened many times young Traders learning how to trade on social media are not aware of the great names of technical analysis for the most Part so when someone tells them these ideas are new
they believe it once again you can call this pattern whatever you want what matters is the logic behind it which was described way before ICT was born we move on now to what ICT Traders called a liquidity grab according to the ICT method a liquidity grab occurs when price pierces a previous structure but fails to break above or below it this is called liquidity grab because just above a Previous High there are buy stop orders and just below lows there are sell stop orders the idea that price will poke a previous high or low just
to go to the opposite side right after is a very old idea too its most common name is bull trap or bear trap bull trap comes from the idea that buyers think price will go up after the breakout of a high only to find out that price will go down be trap comes from the idea the sellers think price will go down only to find out that Price will go up this is just another version of the idea that began with Richard wov in the early 20th century another term you hear a lot in the
ICT method is displacement displacement is a large move made of one or multiple candles and that breaks Market structure meaning a previous high or low so for example here we can see a large bullish candle breaking the previous high with some violence in the ICT method this is Called displacement in the same way on the right we can see a large bearish candle breaking below a previous low with some violence this is displacement according to the ICT method this is just a different name for an increase in volatility leading to a breakout which is self-explanatory
we move on now to what ICT Traders call low and high resistance liquidity these are Concepts that once Again capitalize on very old ideas of technical analysis this time from Charles D which described these patterns in the late 19th century what ICT Traders call low resistance liquidity is what Dow called failure swing in other words a higher high higher low lower high lower low in the case of an uptrend high resistance liquidity is the idea of non-failure swing in the Dow Theory which is a higher high followed by a lower low in the case of
an uptrend Transitioning to a downtrend using the ICT jargon High Resistance liquidity is the same of the market structure shift the point is that this pattern has been described more than a 100 Years Ago by Charles D and it has been used extensively with other names throughout the 20th century as well these terms involving liquidity aim to give the impression that price action follows liquidity which is incorrect price Doesn't follow liquidity price follows perceived value liquidity is simply the ease with which a market can be traded without causing significant changes in price the next concept
is what ICT calls power of three or AMD which basically stands for accumulation manipulation and distribution so there are a couple of problems with this concept the first problem is obvious to anyone who has studied the wov method this is exactly What Richard wov described almost 100 years ago wov proposed that well-informed buyers would deceptively induce sellers to the downside just so that these well informed buyers could get in and then price would create an upper movement leaving sellers frustrated wov called this manipulation before the uptrend a spring some people call this a bear trap
because it misleads sellers in the same way wov proposed That price would deceptively induce buyers to the upside just so that more powerful sellers could get in and then price would create a downward movement leaving the buyers frustrated wov called this manipulation before the downtrend an up thrust after distribution some people call this a bull trap because it misleads buyers the second problem with the way ICT described the century old idea is that according to wof and Charles DAL to A distribution is a sideways Market not a trending market so accumulation is the sideways Market
that happens before an uptrend and a distribution is the sideways Market that happens before a downtrend the terms accumul and distribution are used incorrectly by ICT Traders let's now talk about what ICT Traders call turtle soup turtle soup is yet another concept built on the idea of manipulation of Market structure the basic idea is to buy below old lows and Sell above old highs the term turtle soup was coined by the Traders Larry Conners and Linda rashki and it was a strategy published in the book Street Smart's high probability short-term Trading strategies it is a
play on the famous Turtle trading system that was developed by Richard Dennis and William eart in the 1980s Turtle Traders were basically Trend Traders Turtle soap is a contrarian trading approach that Capitalizes on a scenario where Trend Traders are misled once again this idea did not come from ICT it's a very old idea in technical analysis the Connor and rasy turtle soup itself can be seen as the same idea a derived from wov decades before because capitalizing on false breakouts was first accomplished and described by Richard wov in the early 20th century and later the
same idea received different names the ideas of spring and up thrust after Distribution in the wov method are conceptually the same as the turtle soup even though there might be slight variations the core concept is the same you may be starting to notice a pattern in the ICT concept so far most of them are based on the Bull and Bear Trap patterns and the original idea from wov recall once again that the wov method was developed in a time when electronic markets and trading algorithms did not exist let's now move on to order Blocks along
with fair value gaps the order block is one of the most famous Concepts in the ICT method an order block is again a very simple idea camouflaged as a sophisticated one it's the old open of the large candle that sweeps liquidity and then leads to the break of an old structure right after for example a bullish order block is the open of the large candle that sweeps sside liquidity and then leads to a break of structure Right after this is a very inefficient way of saying the open of a large candle that breaks a low
and then leads to the breakout of a high forming an expanding pivot non-f failure swing or whatever you want to call this the theory is that price will return concerned the order Block Level in reverse a bearish order block is the open of the large candle that sweeps buy side liquidity and then leads to a break of structure right after this is again a very inefficient Way of saying the open of a large candle that breaks a high and then leads to the breakout of a low forming an expanding pivot I think it's already clear
that the ICT method talks about fundamental concepts in technical analysis such as highs and lows in breakouts but with the different language for example highs and lows are called buy side and sell-side liquidity false breakouts and breakouts are called sweep or break of structure And so on however we do see price reacting to the so-called order blocks sometimes and when new Traders see that happening they validate whatever it is that ICT uses to justify the new language for old ideas to understand this we must comprehend a few important Concepts in trading the first idea is
that price doesn't reverse because of one thing price reversals are always the result of several factors combined and we cannot Track them all through a price chart no matter how much you understand the market you cannot have access to all the variables that influence price when you Traders see price reacting to an order block or a fair value Gap or whatever it is they immediately validate the idea while not being aware of the other potential causes behind the movement in this chart we have a good example of of bullish order block under the ICT terminology
we see a relatively large Candle sweeping sell side liquidity and then a break of structure right after when price comes back to the order block it starts a violent movement to the upside when ICT Traders look at this they immediately validate the order block concept simply because that's the information they have they cannot understand the other reasons because they simply don't know them or they have purposefully decided to ignore them in reality though there are multiple Reasons why price reversed there some of these reasons can be known through technical analysis and some of these reasons
cannot be known at all recall that according to Game Theory trading is a game of incomplete information let's explore some of the reasons we can know if we erase the ICT terminology from the chart and plot a volume profile in that last downward price movement we'll see that the VP or volume point of control follows exactly Where the order block is we eras the volume profile and plot a Fibonacci retracement in the Upper price movement we'll see that price reacts to the 78.6% level or simply the last low that got broken in fact that U
did a better result than the order block another very interesting example that ICT Traders like to ignore or are simply not aware of are the elements of order flow we can find in the footprint chart for examp example if we access the footprint chart Of the low where the so-called order block occurred we'll see that there is a very interesting order flow activity in there the most obvious of elements is the massive bid stacked imbalance we can find in the candle that ICT Traders incorrectly called order block a little bit later we can find a
big ask stacked inbalance as well and these two stacked imbalances intersect with one another if we extend these levels to the right we'll find that price reverses at their Inter section as you can see here by the way ICT Traders talk about order flow while just looking at Price which is incorrect order flow refers to the flow of orders behind price action and it is accessed through tools like footprint charts Market profile volume profile cumulative Delta and so on price action is just price action order flow relates to the volume activity behind price formation however
the real tools of order flow are not mentioned by ICT Traders and their origin is explicit to anyone with basic knowledge over their flow trading they begin with Peter style Meer in the 1980s things like the footprint chart and the volume profile are logical extensions of style Meyer's Market profile method once again ICT traders who believe ICT is the only reliable source of information are simply uneducated about technical analysis they think price reverses because of order Blocks or fair value gaps while in reality there's a lot more going on by the way we can find
lots of instances where order blocks and fair value gaps don't work just like any other trading technique which is perfectly normal we can spend a lot of time here and find multiple reasons why price reversed there using several ideas from technical analysis but my point is that price doesn't reverse just because of one thing it reverses because multiple Things intersect some of these reasons can come from technical analysis and some can come from completely unknown sources this is partly why technical analysis is an imperfect game it's impossible to differentiate between coincidence and causality in the
charts we can only speculate about it this is why there is no trading technique capable of producing only positive results we move on now to another concept called change in state of Delivery according to ICT a change in state of delivery is simply when price goes from bearish to bullish or bullish to bearish just like what happens with Market structure shift you may ask what's the difference between The Changing State of delivery and the market structure shift then the answer is that market structure shifts relate to the high or low that gets broken and changing
state of delivery relates to an order Block in other words the market Structure shift is the break of structure while The Changing State of delivery is the break of the order block the expression Changing State of delivery gives the Imp impression that there is an algorithm delivering price action which is one of the claims that ICT Traders make without actually knowing what they're talking about we'll talk about this idea in Greater detail later in the video similarly to the order block there is a concept called Breaker block the breaker block is a simple pattern in
a bullish breaker block we observe a low a high a lower low and then a higher high the breaker block dwells in the bullish candle or series of bullish candles within the low and the high in the bearish breaker block we observe a high a low a higher high and a lower low the breaker block dwells in the bearish candle or series of bearish candles within the high and low according to the ICT method price Action will retrace back to the breaker Block in reverse the reason you can see price reacting to the so-called breaker
blocks sometimes is that they usually sit in a small consolidation if we recall Peter style Meers auction Market Theory area of consolidation are areas of price acceptance and these areas tend to attract price action notice also the presence of expanding pivots or non-failure Swings the ICT method also proposes the mitigation block the mitigation block is similar to the breaker block the difference lies in the market structure around it in the same way the breaker block implies a non-failure swing the mitigation block implies a failure swing we Rec calling that these ideas were outlined more than
100 Years Ago by Dao and wov the last kind of block if you will is the propostion block which is a Slightly more complex idea the propostion block is basically an order block off of another order Block in the case of a bullish propostion block first way identify the order block which is the open of the bearish candle that breaks an important level the confirmation of the order block comes when price returns and closes above the open open that bearish candle which would technically be a change in state of delivery after that price retraces to
The order Block Level forming another bearish candle if price then closes above this bearish candle we have a propostion block at the open if price comes back to the propostion block area a long trade can be framed in my opinion this jargon is unnecessarily confusing it's much simpler to observe that a small area of consolidation recalling Statum Myers idea that consolidations are areas of fair value the price might get attracted to and then repelled from You can see the propostion block as the first small consolidation after a non-failure swing following the terminology proposed by Charles
D let's now clarify the idea of liquidity according to the ICT method liquidity is the price levels where Trader stops are sitting this is why we saw those other Concepts called buy side and sell-side liquid liquidity so basically any high or low in the chart can be considered liquidity in the IC Method this is incorrect liquidity is not a price level liquidity is the ease with which a market can be traded without causing significant changes in price liquidity is directly linked to the idea of Market depth which is the number of orders in a price
level imagine a range of prices above the current price with progressively deeper levels as price goes up in the price levels immediately above the current price where the market depth is shallow It doesn't require a lot of aggression from buyers to make price rise so there's less liquidity as buyers move higher in Market depth increases buyer aggression must increase in order to produce the same movement in price meaning that liquidity is greater it is true that liquidity is higher right above highs and R below lows but not exclusively Market depth and therefore liquidity varies across
all price levels and that Cannot be assessed through price action Reading Alone we need real order flow tools like the footprint chart Market profile and volume profile ICT Traders have the incorrect notion that price follows liquidity in reality price follows the perception of value price is the objective measurement of a market it's a number value is the subjective measurement of a market it's a perception of whether price is low or high the discrepancy between price and Value is what drives price not liquidity different Market participants will have different perceptions of price this is why at
any given moment what one market participant perceives to be a good long opportunity can be perceived as a good short Opportunity by another Market participant especially when we are talking about Market participants in different time Horizons let's move on now to fair value gaps the fair value Gap is perhaps apps the most famous and Most used ICT Concept in combination with order blocks these are the ones that draw the most attention the fair value Gap is a very simple idea just like all the other ICT Concepts a bullish fair value Gap is basically a three
candle pattern where there is a gap between the upper shadow of the first candle and the lower shadow of the third candle in a bearish fair value Gap the Gap exists between the lower shadow of the first candle and the upper shadow Of the third candle the ICT method proposes that price often returns to this Gap area and reverses there are two keys to understand where the idea of fair value gaps come from Peter style Meers auction market theory and the idea that price is fractal the auction market theory was developed by a cbot Trader
called Peter styom Myers in the 1980s he's also credited with the development of the market profile Approach which is essential for the understanding of real order flow analysis if you want to understand a little bit more about order flow analysis I have a free course here in the channel as well stle Meers action market theory proposes that the financial markets work as an auction constantly seeking to find fair value out of this Theory two basic ideas emerge when price is going sideways it is in a state of balance acceptance or Fair value the market ranges
because buyers and sellers relatively agree about the fair value of the market in that moment when price trends it is in a state of imbalance rejection or unfair value it is also said that price is in price Discovery when it Trends that's because buyers and sellers disagree about the fair value of the market and price is now trying to find a new area where Market players agree generally speaking we tend to observe areas of Fair and unfair value with broad price movements and this is where the concept of fractals enters the scene a fractal is
a pattern that repeats inside itself and it is self-evident that price action behaves like that in any time frame you choose you can see the mechanics of higher and lower time frames without necessarily switching between time frames the Practical implication of this is that just like we can see highs and lows in Broad price movements we can see Highs and lows in the Candlestick level for example on the left we can see areas of consolidation and areas of training movements in a broader scale but the same concept can be seen embedded in candlesticks like so
the fair value Gap is nothing more than the empty space between two consolidations in the Candlestick level which represents the empty space between two consolidations between broad price movements in a lower time frame for example in this chart we Have a bearish fair value Gap if we look at the Shadows of the candlesticks involved we'll see how they form small consolidations highlighted in yellow in this time frame the consolidations are small but if we switch to a lower time frame we will see them as broad price movement if we move to the two-minute time frame
we can see that indeed there is a training movement between two consolidations that's what a fair value Gap is notice that the term fair value Gap means the space between two fair value areas the point is that this identification of fair and unfair value areas in price is an idea found in the auction market theory and in the market profile approach developed by Peter Styer in the80s it has nothing to do with the algorithm that ICT Traders keep talking about there are a few problems with this fair value Gap idea though fair value gaps just
like any other Technique fail often the reason is because diverse Market participants from multiple time frames coexist interact and intersect in the final analysis it's impossible to differentiate between coincidence and causality in the price charts we can know some of the reasons price reverses but not all of them this is why trading is speculation this is also why the best that can be done with technical analysis is the integration of techniques for Example in this chart we can see many fair value gaps doing a very poor job this doesn't mean this technique doesn't have value
it means it also fails like any other it's common for beginner traders to attribute price events to one single variable while being unaware of the other variables involved for example in this image we can see a wide fair value Gap and the Traders looking at it will attribute the brief price reversal to it however minimal examination allow Us to see that this is not the only variable involved in the reversal right before the fair value Gap we can see a minor high that also contributed in the footprint chart we can see a stacked imbalance that
pinpoints the reversal much more accurately than the PR value gap which is too wide in this other chart we can see a linear regression Channel also pointing to the reversal you get the idea there are many reasons why price reversed in there some of Which have to do with technical analysis some of which have not fundamental factors news and Etc will of course impact price too like it was stated before fair value gaps are born of the intersection between auction market theory and the idea that markets are fractal and you see many ICT Traders accepting
price is fractal however this goes in direct collision with the idea that there is one algorithm behind price action the fractal nature of price is a Result from multiple Market participants human and algorithmic coexisting interacting and intersecting in multiple time Horizons but in the same playing field so to speak in other words the acceptance that price is fractal means it's impossible for the market to be controlled by one algorithm only price can be fractal while being impacted by multiple types of algorithms but that destroys this illusion of top- down control that I Traders believe fair
Value gaps are often too wide to provide meaningful reversal zones or levels this problem can be solved by looking at real order flow tools like the footprint chart which have nothing to do with ICT ICT Traders talk about reading order Flow by looking at candles only which is misleading order flow relates to to the order placement matching and execution behind candles so to speak and it can only be accessed by tools like the footprint chart order book depth of Market Market profile volume profile cumulative volume Delta and so on none of which have anything to
do with ICT all these tools are logical extensions of the work done by Peter styom Meer with the auction market theory and the market profile approach for example here we see price reacting to a wide fair value Gap G which is not useful at all because it's too wide if we access the footprint chart which is a real order flow tool we Will see that the largest stacked imbalance in that wide range candle provides a much more accurate zone of reversal in comparison to the wide fair value Gap this is of course the very tip
of the iceberg of orderflow analysis you can learn the basics in my free course here on YouTube moving on to the next idea we have what is called smt Divergence which stands for smart money trading Divergence this concept is related to The idea that when correlated markets Exhibit price Divergence an opportunity might be in place correlated markets will often move in synchrony so when Market a is producing higher highs and higher lows for example Market B will also produce higher highs and higher lows the same is true for downtrends of course Divergence happens when this
relationship momentarily ceases to exist for example in two positively correlated markets if Market a produces a higher High while Market B produces a lower high there is Divergence between the two which in this case means a bearish reversal in this chart we can see a very clear example of this on top we have the 1hour S&P 500 futures and on the bottom we have the 1hour NASDAQ futures these two markets are positively correlated the black line shows a moment where the S&P produced a lower high while the NASDAQ is producing a higher high both markets
were going up so the Divergence Ended up signaling a bearish reversal as far as smt Divergence is concerned there are a couple of problems one this idea doesn't come from ICT and two ICT Traders assume that markets are correlated because there is an algorithm behind price movement let's examine these two problems more closely the idea of Divergence between markets is part of something called inter market analysis which was popularized by John Murphy in the 1980s John Murphy is a former technical analyst for CNBC and has over 40 years of market experience in 1992 he was
given the first award for outstanding contribution to Global technical analysis by the International Federation of technical analysts and was the recipient of the 2002 Market technicians association annual award Murphy's most famous book is called intermarket analys is profiting from Global Market relationships a fair Assessment of intermarket analysis requires a separate moment the second problem is that ICT Traders assume that markets are correlated because there is an algorithm behind price movement this is wrong there are several reasons why markets are correlated several markets share main drivers like interest rates inflation and GDP Global Market sentiment makes
Traders and investors move collectively between markets global trade links economies and Markets together markets are not isolated Islands geopolitical events will impact multiple markets simultaneously there are several examples of how markets are correlated let's observe a few Australia is a major exporter of iron ore and other Commodities the azi often moves in tendem with global commodity prices especially iron ore as export revenues directly impact the economy and currency Norway is a significant oil exporter and Its currency the Norwegian Crone often strengthens with Rising oil prices and weakens with falling prices the yen is often inversely
correlated with global equities during risk off periods investors flock to the Yen as a safe haven currency and it tends to appreciate the Swiss frank often correlates with gold prices as both are considered safe haven assets during periods of economic uncertainty the US dollar typically moves inversely to gold Prices when the dollar becomes stronger gold becomes more expensive for foreign buyers reducing demand and vice versa Brazil is a leading Global exporter of soybeans the Brazilian real often shows correlation with soybean prices due to the importance of agricultural exports to the Brazilian economy as one of
the world's largest energy exporters the Russian Rubble frequently correlates with global oil and natural gas prices New Zealand's economy relies Heavily on Dairy exports the New Zealand dollar often tracks Global dairy prices South Africa is a leading producer of gold and platinum so the South African rent often correlates with the prices of these Metals the Euro sometimes correlates with German Bond Utes as Germany's economy is a dominant driver of the Euro Zone's overall economic Outlook markets also impact one another on a cascading effect for example a Sharp sell off in the S&P 500 occurs due
to negative news such as weak economic data or a geopolitical event this triggers risk of sentiment among investors as equities decline investors seek safer assets like US Treasury bonds this increases demand for bonds driving their prices up and Ys now bond prices and udes move inversely falling udes on us treasuries reduced the attractiveness of the US dollar as an interest earning currency this weakens the US dollar Which influences Forex markets and potentially boosts the value of safe heaven currencies like the Japanese Yen or Swiss frank a weaker dollar can drive up the prices of dollar
denominated Commodities like gold and oil adding further feedback loops to other markets the initial sell off in the S&P 500 can spread to other Equity indices like the NASDAQ as investor sentiment moves across the board leading to Global Market declines economies and therefore Financial markets are deeply interconnected and interdependent which makes it impossible for Price action to be delivered by one algorithm retail Traders have the problem of being alienated to price charts only which causes them to fail to realize the true complexity of financial markets let's now talk about the concept of kill zones kill
zones are specific time periods within the trading day that have higher volatility and that makes it Easier to catch certain kinds of Trades I will not bore you with whatever arbitrary periods ICT Traders believed are the best the bottom line about this is that the hours of the day with the highest volatility are the hours where trading sessions overlap in the Forex markets for example we have the four main trading sessions Sydney Tokyo London and New York the training hours when these sessions overlap have the highest volatility Simply because there are more Traders from different
regions actively trading in these same markets there are two major overlaps Sydney Tokyo overlap and the London New York overlap the latter being the most powerful one this happens simply because there are more Traders engaged in the market when sessions overlap here's an illustration of the Forex sessions in their overlap in GMT let's now talk about another theory involved in the ICT method called Quarterly Theory quarterly Theory suggests that time must be divided into quarters in order to enhance the Precision and remove ambiguity from ICT concept one year is divided into quarters with three months
each each month is divided into four weeks each week is divided into four days plus Friday which has its own function this is already weird Let's ignore it each day is divided into quarters 6 hours each each quarter is divided into Quarters 90 minutes each the idea is that each quarter dictates what the next one will do the start of the second quarter in each cycle represents what is called a true open which serves as a Time filter for what is called Judah swing which we'll talk about in a moment the Frameworks for the quarterly
Theory follow the AMD or power R3 structure which is a bit misleading in its nomenclature in this illustration you can see an example of how the quarterly Theory might help in trading sessions the open of the second quarter marks the true open which can be used to frame a trade after a judo swing which is once again the old manipulation maneuver outlined by wov this is just one example of how this might play out I'm not going to explore this further because life is too short if we want to get serious about Cycles it's certainly
possible the idea that the financial markets can be narrowed Down to quarterly Cycles is incomplete in reality there are different kinds of Cycles from various time Horizons impacting the financial markets there are major business cycles that impact the market in the long term such as the kraf wave the juggler cycle the kitchen cycle the Shan Peter cycle different markets are affected by different types of cycles and markets are interconnected for example commodity markets are affected by agricultural Cycles Equity Markets are affected by earning cycles and Forex markets are affected by interest rate Cycles in technical
analysis the major reference in terms of cycle analysis is JM Hurst which is considered to be the father of psycho analysis which emerged in the 60s and70s the sem of work can be found in the book called The Profit magic of stock transaction timing HST psycho analysis follows several principles such as harmonicity Synchronicity nominal variation and commonality I will eventually post a psycho analysis course here in the channel we once again see this idea that the financial markets are a decentralized amalgamation of thousands of variables coexisting interacting and intersecting which is precisely the opposite of
the algorithmic market hypothesis proposed by the ICT method in terms of the quarterly Theory it's obvious that the cycle analysis of Financial markets is more complicated than simply dividing things by four let's now talk about what are called daily profile formations ICT talks about the daily profile formations such as London reversal New York continuation Seek and Destroy New York manipulation and so on in order to understand how ICT talks about this you need to understand Candlestick quantization meaning how to compile a series of candles into one Single candle there's a useful indicator in trading view
for this called HTF power of three let's observe a brief summary of the profiles outlined in the ICT method London reversal the London reversal simply means that the market will reverse at the beginning of the London session in New York session will continue in this direction New York reversal in the New York reversal the market will reverse Direction outline in the London session as soon as New York opens New York manipulation the New York manipulation is when London consolidates and then the beginning of the New York session manipulates and reverses once again recalling that this
pattern was outlined by wov SE and destroy a Seck and Destroy profile is basically a sideways Market where multiple manipulations occur on Both sides without any clear trend Direction this idea of profiling the trading day is not new the market profile approach developed by Peter stomer in the 1980s outlined several daily formations based on the distribution of time at Price this notion has been developed later by James Dalton stle Meers Market profile method outlines six main daily profiles based on the distribution of time at Price meaning how much time price spends Across different price levels
the non- trend day the normal day the normal variation day the trend day the double distribution day in the neutral day the careful study of these market profiles goes outside the scope of this video I just want to show you that the study of daily profiles began with Peter stle you can see the distribution of time at price in trading view by choosing the chart type called time price opportunity also referred to as TPO this is the chart type used if you want to follow the market profile approach we move on now to the concept
called daily bias the daily bias is one of the most famous ICT Concepts and it's also a very simple idea to determine the bias for the next day the trader must observe the position of the close of the current candle in relation to the previous candle range let's observe the possibilities of the bullish daily bias If price closes above the previous day's range we have a bullish bias for the next day if price pierces the previous day's low without closing below it we also have a bullish bias for the next day that aims to reach
at least the current day's high price closes below the previous day's range we have a bearish bias for the next day price preces the previous day's range high without closing above it we also have a bearish bias for the next day that aims To reach at least the current day's low price doesn't react to the previous days extremes there is a neutral bias if you really want to go deeper into the knowledge of what the bias is for the next day or week you need to use something like intraday seasonal. comom which is based on
an Insight Larry Williams had in the '90s intraday seals.com shows the cumulative sum of intra-week average variances and that helps to determine bias based Trading strategies two famous Traders claim to use this website to trade Larry Williams like already mentioned and Andrea anger a Trader who won the World Trading Championship four times with systematic training strategies so obviously this is worth looking into the next concept is called internal and external liquidity the concepts of internal and external liquidity sound complicated but they are not internal Liquidity is just a fair value Gap external liquidity is an
old high or low or buy side sell-side liquidity levels under the ICT jargon which are just different name for highs and lows According to some ICT Traders price action only does two things it oscillates from internal to external liquidity so if price reacts to a fair value Gap it goes to a buy side sell-side liquidity level or old high or low and then it moves to a fair value Gap again in an endless cycle this assumes that there is no diversity of maret players and time Horizons it's self-evident that things are much more complicated than
that in reality price action and Order flow are the result of diverse Market players of different time Horizons coexisting interacting and intersecting so the road laid out by the real Market is a much bumpier road so to speak for example in this image we see price going from sell-side liquidity to Buy side liquidity without reacting at the fair value Gap in between which renders this concept as Incorrect and once again liquidity is not price level is the ease with which a market can be traded without causing significant changes in price liquidity varies across price levels
in a way that is not perfectly correlated with the geometry of candlesticks so to speak let's now talk about the Box setup this is once again a setup based on the Old wof manipulation idea the concept here is that price will manipulate an extreme and then go back to the level that got manipulated to give an entry opportunity the manipulation maneuver in the wov method is called Spring on the downside and up thrust after Distribution on the upside let's now move on to another famous idea called the Silver Bullet in the ICT method the Silver
Bullet refers to a specific time of the trading day Where a manipulation maneuver will occur followed by a movement on the other direction using EST the manipulation is set up using the high and low of the N a.m hourly candle then on a lower time frame like the 5 minute or 1 minute the trader will look for the manipulation during the Silver Bullet window which is from 10: a.m. to 11:00 a.m. the trader can frame the trade using the other Concepts such as order blocks fair value gaps and so on and use the other side
of The range as a Target needless to say at this point this is once again the old wof manipulation pattern the only difference is that you will be looking for it in specific time of day which is not really helpful because this pattern happens all the time we move on now to the concept of the Balan price range the Balan price range or BPR for shorts is basically the intersection between two opposing fair value gaps when the market is going fast In One Direction and reverses sharply let's observe an example where this idea works and
then investigated a little further on the 1H hour S&P we can see price transitioning from an aggressive movement down to an aggressive movement up this is called a vbottom by the way which is a classic chart pattern that ICT Traders believe to be used only by retail Traders on the way down we can see a bearish fair value Gap and on the way up A bullish one and we can also see how they intersect later we do see price returning to the intersection or what ICT Traders call the balance price range and then going to
the upside we already talked about fair value gaps and the truth behind them fair value gaps refer to orderflow Concepts without actually using the order flow tools which can be a bit misleading if we move on to a real order flow tool like the footprint which is Not used by ICT Traders we'll see the actual reason why price reversed there or at least one of the main reasons notice that in the candle that forms the low of the V bottom we can find two stacked imbalances price reverses as soon as it encounters the first stacked
imbalance in the as column and it does so with a much greater Precision in comparison to the fair value gaps forming the Balan price range this is one of the reasons You cannot really read order flow through price action alone like ICT Traders think you need order tools to assess what's happening behind price action and all of these tools have a well-known origin which is the auction market theory and the market profile approach both of which were developed by Peter styom in the 1980s reading order flow with actual order flow tools also increases the number
and precision of opportunities You see in the market ict's balance price range is easier to see but this ease has a high opportunity cost let's now talk about what ICT Traders referred to as inducement you probably guessed it at this point this is yet another variation of the wov manipulation pattern the definition of inducement is a move that induces buyers or sellers into the market but only as a form to increase liquidity for the opposite and more Powerful market player exactly the same idea outlined by wov for example in an uptrend we see price forming
a resistance and then sellers assume price will break to the downside but price ends up forming a be trap and continues up in the same way in a downtrend we see price forming a support and then buyers assume price will break to the upside but price ends up forming a bull trap and continues down you can see this idea of inducement As a bull or bear trap that happens in the middle of the trend rather than the beginning or end it's simply easier to assume that a w of bull bear trap pattern can occur at
any point in the trend we move on now to another concept that confuses the real definitions of order flow which is the volume imbalance the ICT method refers to a volume imbalance as a gap between candle bodies while there is an overlap between shadows in technical analysis this is Just another form of Gap the real volume imbalance can only be accessed using order flow tools like the footprint chart for example these imbalances are not visible using candles only and they can happen anywhere within the candle range for example here we have a footprint chart which
ICT Traders do not mention this shows the bid and ask imbalances that occurred within candlesticks among other things Here we have what is called a bid stacked inbalance which is later respected as resistance notice that it happens in a non-obvious area of the Candlestick the point here is that volume imbalances are not visible through candle bodies and shadows only once again if you're interested in learning more about the footprint chart and real order flow analysis I have a free course here in the channel the next concept we'll talk About is called candle range Theory recently
ICT Traders have been talking about this idea as if it is new and once again it sounds complicated but it's simple in the bearish version the pattern begins with a bullish candle that forms the range the next candle pierces the high of the range but closes below it the third candle succeeds to close below the range this is the micro version of the same pattern we keep seeing in the rest Of the ICT method that was originally outlined by Richard wov in other words the candle range Theory pattern is a fractal version of a bull
trap followed by a fall through the ice if we're going to use wov jargon once again we see the acceptance that price is fractal which goes in contradiction with the idea of algorithmic price delivery some ICT Traders believe let's now move on to a more Difficult and necessary topic related to Market micr structure a lot of the confusion revolving the ICT training phenomenon occurs because of a lack of understanding about the role of market makers in training algorithms it's important that you know that learning this is not an easy task this knowledge can be found
in the study of Market micr structure which is a difficult and comprehensive subject some ICT Traders say and I quote ICT coded the algorithm That delivers price action I don't know if ICT actually said those words but I do see a lot of ICT Traders saying this so it's worth clarifying it there's nothing like access to deeper knowledge to understand the problem with this a lot of people have an intuition that this is wrong but being able to explain why is a different story there are several things wrong with the statement to understand this we
need to be aware of the different types Of algorithms that exist in the financial markets their function and how they coexist and interact let's differentiate them imagine a market like the S&P futures for example Le now imagine all the people who buy and sell in this market at the same time there are multiple types of Market players with different intentions different strategies different levels of capital in different Geographic locations and with different time Horizons in view but All of these Market participants coexist and interact in the same playing field so to speak the result is
an enormous number of buy and sell orders arriving in real time at the exchange it's obvious that all this information must be organized in some way so you can comfortably see live price action unfold in your computer screen at home and it's also obvious that this organization task is too complicated for humans to accomplish we need algorithms the Algorithm that does that is called matching engine algorithm it encompasses all the buy and sell orders in real time consolidates it and displays it as realtime price quotes matching engine algorithms exist at the level of the exchange
an exchange like the CME for example codes its matching engine algorithm internally with the oversight of the cftc there are several kinds of matching engine algorithms in different exchanges We'll use different types of algorithms depending on the situation in the slide you can see the different types of matching engine algorithms for you to see a price chart which shows the historical prices usually in form of open high low and closed data according according to the time frame of your choice another algorithm is needed this other algorithm is called Data aggregation algorithm and it exists at
the level of financial Platforms and charting software notice that these two types of algorithms don't react to past price information only realtime order flow these two things form the backbone of what retail Traders see on a price chart these are the the algorithms that allow you to see price action on your screen to sum this up when you look at real time price setion the real-time changes in price are being compiled by the matching engine algorithm at the exchange and this data Is being compiled by a data aggregation algorithm over time meaning that it is
being transformed into candles or Bars by the charting platform you use these are the algorithms involved in the organization and display of price action however there are other types of algorithms that can and will alter price action rather than just display it meaning the algorithms in involved in trading let's begin with the simpler ones and then invol with the more Complex simple trading algorithms there are basically two types of simple trading algorithms that even retail Traders can Implement Trend following and Min reversion these are perhaps the simplest types of trading algorithms they are designed to
automate some sort of systematic trading strategy based on technical indicators or Price action patterns Trend following algorithms try to capture broader Trends and mean reversion algorithms aim to Profit from the expectation that price always returns to a historical average in other words these algorithms are speculative they try to anticipate price direction using simplistic rules Arbitrage algorithms simple algorithms like Trend following and mean reversion capitalize on the directionality of price Arbitrage algorithms aim to exploit some sort of relation reltionship between markets there are several kinds of Arbitrage Algorithms given the vast and complex Market landscape we
have now aay a few of the most common ones are statistical Arbitrage triangular Arbitrage spatial Arbitrage options Arbitrage and index Arbitrage even though the goal is to profit Arbitrage algorithms do this from a completely different perspective compared to simple Trend following and mean reversion algorithms speculation is is about Market Direction Arbitrage is about Market relationship machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms these are used in trading to analyze large data sets in the attempt to identify subtle Market inefficiencies machine learning and AI models are more sophisticated in the sense that they can find nonlinear relationships in
data they can self-improve and they can adapt more efficiently in comparison to algorithms That simply automate system atic trading strategies for example execution algorithms these algorithms are designed to optimize the process of buying and selling in financial markets institutions use execution algorithms to minimize the market impact of large orders for example if an order is too large it can disrupt the order flow or Draw the attention to specific price levels the most common execution Algorithms are based on VAP twap or implementation shortfall once again each type of algorithm is its own Rabbit Hole in this
video we are just getting to know the very tip of the iceberg event driven algorithms event-driven algorithms are designed to react to specific events or occurrences in the market such as news releases earnings announcements macroeconomic data geopolitical developments or corporate actions these Algorithms process real-time information to capitalize on price movements triggered by such events in a much quicker way than the human beings can sentiment analysis algorithms sentiment analysis algorithms often use natural language processing as the core technique natural language processing is a branch of artificial intelligence that enables machines to understand human language in training
NLP is used to process unstructured data Such as news articles and social media posts to extract action insights that inform trading trading decisions meaning to extract the overall Market sentiment these algorithms provide a speed Advantage because they can scan news much quicker than humans liquidity seeking algorithms liquidity seeking algorithms are designed to execute trades by finding and interacting with areas of high liquidity while minimizing Market Impact and execution costs it's a type of execution algorithm these algorithms are specially useful for large orders or in markets where liquidity is fragmented across multiple venues or order types
the liquidity seeking algorithms fragment orders to avoid exposure spread the execution across multiple venues they can use a combination of dark in lit po to optimize execution and also Advanced order types such as Iceberg orders when IC Traders hear the expression liquidity seeking algorithm a light bulb immediately lights up in their heads the activity of these algorithms is much more complicated than what you were alled to believe and they cannot be tracked through simple price charts even with order flow tools such as order book in the depth of Market the liquidity seeking algorithms can easily
obfuscate the real intention of Market players I talked a little bit more about that in My orderflow course here on YouTube Market making algorithms Market making algorithms provide liquidity while profiting from the the bid ask spread they have an important role in the stability of financial markets due to the fact that buyers and sellers are always preempting one another and that can cause problems of execution volatility and liquidity depending on the market Condition let's clarify how market makers operate recalling that in Market micr structure the expression Market maker has a different connotation than in technical
analysis you can think of market makers as a mediator between buyers and sellers the intentions of buyers and sellers are determined by supply and demand however buyers and sellers also preempt one another and that can create issues of liquidity volatility and execution to understand Why let's imagine a very simple exercise imagine the process where buyers and sellers preempt one another by adjusting Supply a man according to the opposite players intentions the buyer says how much is it and the seller responds 150 buyer says okay I'll take it seller responds it's 160 the buyer then says
what you just said 150 the seller responds that was before I knew you wanted it the buyer says you Cannot do that and the seller responds it's my stuff the buyer says but I need a 100 of those the seller reacts 100 it's 170 a piece the buyer says this is insane and the seller finally reacts is the law of supply and demand buddy you want it or not the reaction of Market participants to the intention of other Market participants creates problems of liquidity volatility and execution this preemption problem means that there is always a
spread between The highest price that buyers are willing to buy and the lowest price that sellers are willing to sell and this situation gets worse depending on the market scenario market makers help reduce the spread by quoting bid and ask prices that are narrower than the spread especially in situations where the spread might get too wide it's important to know that market makers only reduce the spread so they can make a profit With the remaining difference they don't eliminate the spread the market Maker's profit is a compensation for their liquidity provision role retail Traders think
that there is only one market maker but that that's not true there are multiple market makers and they compete with one another this further decreases the bid ask spread and provides an even more efficient and liquid Market environment for example imagine that a second Market maker quotes bid it and Ask prices that are narrower than the First Market maker the narrower spread will win the order flow so to speak in summary market makers will compete with one another the greater the competition the narrower the spread the greater the liquidity and the more stable the market
is in unusual scenarios in a market scenario where Supply and amate get too imbalanced for whatever reason the bid ask spread will get too wide without the presence of market makers because of the Fact that buyers and sellers are always preempting one another like we saw before without the liquidity provision of market makers the volatility of price movements would be too high and that would cause unnecessarily violent price movements in other words market makers have a very important role of making markets more liquid and therefore more stable however there is another side to the story
the unique role of market Makers to transform the market into a more liquid stable and fair environment also allows them to nudge or absorb price movements in very specific cases so the very mechanism that creates a more stable Market also allows for the subtle influence of price Discovery Market makers can indeed nudge price into one direction or absorb price movements depending on the order flow the issue here is that small movements like these in very specific situations Can lead to larger events later this is another representation of the butterfly effect in the market a small
nudge in price or a small absortion of prices can lead to a larger behavioral feedback loop created by other Market participants later in summary market makers can indeed nudge or absorb price in very specific cases just like any other Market participant with enough power can it's important to remember that broader Market movements are never A result from one market participant in isolation it's always the amalgamation of several diverse Market players coexisting interacting and intersecting however it's very easy to fall for the temptation to believe that market movements are created by one single entity simply because
that's an easier answer and it provides a sense of control to the person who believes it in reality things are much more complicated than that there are a few additional Details that are important for you to know with respect to market makers the first is that the expression Market maker means liquidity provider in Market micr structure but in technical analysis the term is synonymous to Market manipulator whale large Trader and so on this notion that market makers can manipulate price is not incorrect but it's nuanced the second thing is that market makers compete with one
another and they also have risks meaning that They can lose money for example one of the greatest risks for a market maker is the adverse selection risk which is when the market maker trades against Market participants with informational Advantage the third thing is that the idea of electronic markets being subjected to Broad manipulation is a paradox electronic markets are much more decentralized than the markets in the open outcry and that makes it difficult for one single Market participant to Assume control manipulation was a lot easier in the open outcry so even though electronic markets allow
for the existence of algorithms it also enhances competition and decentralization which makes the rigging of the system harder rather than easier a fourth thing is that in electronic markets it's not so easy to draw the line between different Market participants in the open outcry market makers had a very well- defined role in Electronic markets all kinds of Market participants can end up being liquidity providers as well and it's very difficult if not impossible to know which one is assuming that role especially if we're looking only at Price charts we also need to talk about another
important type of algorithm which are the high frequency trading algorithms they exploit marketing efficiencies and opportunities through Lightning Fast order placement and execution these are the real ghosts in the machine so to speak notice there isn't just one highfrequency trading algorithm there are multiple and they compete with one another many of the highfrequency trading firms also engage in Market making some well-known high frequency trading firms are Citadel Securities Chain Street Capital XTX markets and drw highfrequency trading algorithms can Place and execute trades in a matter of micros seconds and even nanc in some cases a
microsc is a millionth of a second and a nond is a billionth of a second you may wonder how that's possible when you see price action fluctuating in real time in your price chart there is a minimum time period between ticks which is often in the millisecond resolution for retail Traders highfrequency trading firms have direct Market access and they can see The market with much greater resolution usually in the microsc level Ultra fast high frequency trading firms have access to exchange level time stamping and that allows them to see order flow with nanc Precision the
point here is that there's a whole lot of Market activity that happens in between the ticks you see in your price chart that's where the high frequency trading algorithms Thrive it's as if there was a whole other Market in between ticks the retail Trader simply Cannot see by looking at a price chart you cannot see what high frequency trading algorithms are doing simply because your charting platform doesn't have the resolution for it you can at best see the Bro implications of these algorithms in extreme cases like the 2010 flash crash it's nice to know the
mechanics of highfrequency trading algorithms but there is absolutely nothing you can do about it as a retail Trader high frequency trading algorithms have been criticized for their role in Flash crashes and their potential to create an unfair playing field for smaller Traders for example during the 2010 flash crash where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped almost 1,000 points in a matter of minutes it was concluded after investigation that highfrequency trading algorithms created a liquidity vacuum that exacerbated volatility and that is what ultimately Led to the rapid crash in this case highfrequency trading algorithms acted as
some sort of anti-market maker removing liquidity from the market instead of providing it there's an increasingly large effort of Market surveillance and regulation to mitigate the potential negative effects of high frequency trading like I said high frequency trading algorithms are the real ghosts in the machine ICT is just a trading method for retail traders that Uses a different language to describe very old technical analysis Concepts that were first described in a time when electronic markets and algorithms did not exist it couldn't be more different than high frequency trading just so you have a taste of
how complicated Market micr structure really is I have made a summary of the main models I hope this Sparks your curiosity to pursue the subject you can also wait for me to release a market micr Structure course within the next 300 years this is very strong evidence for the complexity of the financial markets like I said in one of my first courses the bonini Paradox exemplifies this situ situation the model of a complex system like the financial markets becomes less understandable as it becomes more complete there is a paradox in the way ICT Traders think
they often accept the fact that price is fractal while claiming that price is delivered by an Algorithm so let's differentiate between the algorithmic price delivery hypothesis and the fractal Market hypothesis algorithmic price delivery hypothesis believing the market is controlled by a single centralized algorithm implies a deterministic top down approach perspective suggests the price movements are pre-ordained orchestrated by a singular entity or mechanism leaving little room for emergent Behavior Randomness and the complex interaction of diverse Market participants in different time Horizons the fractal Market hypothesis accepting that price is fractal acknowledges that market Behavior is self
similar across different time frames characterized by patterns that emerge organically from the interaction of countless Market participants this view aligns with chaos theory and the idea that price formation Arises from decentralized complex systems where no single entity can assume full control decentralization is an inherent feature of any Market the reality is that certain Market players can nudge or absorb price movement in very specific moments meaning in the micros scale they cannot manipulate price on a macro scale this initial and small nudge or absortion can trigger a larger self-reinforcing or self-correcting cycle that goes outside The
control of any single Market participant this is the butterfly effect in Chaos Theory where small changes lead to large changes the fact that we can describe market dynamics in terms of chaos theory is evidence for the fractal Market hypothesis I don't know if ICT claims the price is completely delivered by a centralized algorithm but I've seen many ICT Traders say precisely that so it requires Clarification the only way to reconcile these two main ideas and eliminate the Paradox is to realize that there isn't just one algorithm impacting price there are multiple types of algorithms with
different roles in the same way that there are multiple types of human Market participants coexisting interacting and intersecting the realization that there isn't just one algorithm behind price debunks this notion that the ICT method is the endgame of Trading price action is not like social media where there is one algorithm controlling what you see it's much more complicated than that hopefully you are able to see a little bit about how that works in this course it's time now to make some general considerations about things ICT Traders believe and say on social media so we can
combat the enormous level of misinformation that exists around this topic you'll often see ICT students say That ICT Rambles too much trying to explain simple things in the most difficult way possible isn't good for anyone explaining difficult things in the easiest way possible is the real challenge but of course there's a limit to how much you can simplify complex things there's nothing difficult about ICT Concepts in fact you'll see a lot of ICT students teaching these techniques in a much better way than ICT himself the ICT method is an Oversimplification of the real thing which
means a lot of important details are lost as you were able to see in this course many of the ICT Concepts revolve around the same old bull bear tra pattern you must realize that the financial markets are a much vaster landscape of ideas opportunities and pitfalls that's the case even when we look at Price charts but there's also a whole world of things to learn outside the price chart ICT Traders see themselves differently than retail Traders which is very funny they believe they use institutional trading Concepts they do not realize that the so-called institutional trading
Concepts they use are the same old technical analysis ideas with a different name many of these ideas are more than 100 years old like we saw institutional Traders can use technical analysis as a timing tool in Some cases but they combine a whole set of other approaches and some institutional Traders don't use price charts at all I made a video about that a while ago to demonstrate one example in the case of Bank traders who use Delta hedging I'll leave the link in the video description so what is the Smart money after all we can
Define the smart money as the set of traders who have an informational Advantage as this is what Ultimately leads to an edge in the financial markets however informational Advantage is a hierarchy all of this becomes Crystal Clear once you understand the commitment of Traders report the commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication by the cftc that shows the open interest in the US futures and options markets this is a tool that provides transparency into what different kinds Of Market participants are doing and it's key to understand the real meaning of the expression smart money
there are three categories to watch in the commitment of Traders report non-reportable positions these are the market participants that aim to profit from Price fluctuations but with positions below the cftc reporting a threshold this is where the retail Traders and common investors fall into non-commercial Traders these are Large Market participants that aim to profit from Price fluctuations big hedge funds for example fall under this classification commercial Traders these are usually large multinational companies that produce consume or deal with commodities and they use the financial markets to hatch their operations not to profit from Price movements
notice that there is a hierarchy of informational Advantage here the non-commercial Traders have an Advantage over the non-reportable Traders so in the eyes of retail Traders the non-commercial Traders like hedge funds are the smart money simply because they are smarter not because they are the smartest however in the eyes of non-commercial Traders like hedge funds the commercial Traders are the smart money the reason is because the commercial Traders like multinational companies for example deal with primary Information meaning that they have direct access to the forces of supply and demand of the market they operate non-commercial
Traders only have access to secondary information in other words they don't have direct access to the forces of supply and demand they can only analyze it indirectly through aggregated data such as price volume and other forms of market analysis non-reportable Traders also deal with secondary information but in a less Sophisticated way in comparison to the non-commercial in summary the institutions like hedge funds are smarter money than the retail Traders because they have Superior forms of market analysis the commercial traders meaning large companies are the smartest money because they have direct insight into supply and demand
Dynamics however the commercial Traders don't don't use the financial markets to Speculate they use it as a form of hedging their operations commercial Traders are generally more powerful than non-commercial too it's worth knowing the Futures and options were primarily designed as a risk management mechanism not speculative ones the good news is that this commitment of Traders report can be accessed by anyone Larry Williams a legendary Trader known for winning the robins cup with the highest return in History is very good at tracking what the smart money is doing in fact he has a very good
book about it called trade stocks and commodities with the Insiders Larry Williams says in the book and I quote I have been following the smart money crowd since 1970 however since the commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication it will show what the smart money is doing in the long term in the short term this becomes a more complicated problem There are modes of market analysis used by non-commercial Traders that can indeed be used by retail Traders not all of them of course one type of market analysis that can be used by retail and
institutional traders in the short term is order flow analysis however you cannot learn order flow from ICT ICT Traders don't know the difference between price action and real order flow perhaps one of the reasons The real tools of order flow analysis are not mentioned in the ICT method is because their Origins are clear I've talked about other types of Strat strategies that both institutional and Retail Traders can use in the realm of hedging and Arbitrage if you want to learn more about that check out my books on volatility trading gamma scalping Vega scalping and statistical
Arbitrage these strategies form the fundamental basis for many institutions and they Don't require the use of price charts at all they are also based on robust ideas that earned a Nobel Prize like the black schs model and the co-integration model before social media the distinction between smart money and dumb money was clearer the smart money was the set of Traders with an informational advantage and the dumb money was the set of Traders with lack of information social media Amplified a third category which I like to call the Confused money these are the traders who have
the illusion of knowledge so not only they don't know what they're doing but they are also arrogant about it the ICT method is not mentioned in the most respectable technical analysis certification programs of the world if you study the literature proposed by the most respectable technical analysis certification programs of the world like the CMT STA and Ataa you will not see ICT in there at all and the reason is because the serious technical analysis Community doesn't accept this claim that ICT is the engineer and inventor of smart money Concepts in other words ict's popularity nowadays
is basically an isolated internet phenomenon and young retail Traders don't understand that because they are not used to thinking outside social media I concepts are not really a problem because they represent very old Ideas in technical analysis most of which predate ICT himself the problem is the narrative being used to promote the concept and the way ICT Traders validate the concept new retail Traders learning how to trade on social media don't understand the intricacies of trading performance so when they see the concept working in certain cases they end up validating whatever ICT and other ICT
Traders say such Traders are not even Aware of basic technical analysis let alone the several cognitive biases involved in looking at Price charts and measuring performance many of the patterns ICT Traders use were detected in a time when financial markets were not electronic yet Charles D and Richard wof did not have the ease of looking at price charts on a computer screen they got data from ticker tapes telegraphs and exchange records and then They plotted prices manually needless to say at the time there were no algorithms acting in the financial markets because markets were not
electronic yet the transition to electronic markets was a gradual process from the 1970s until the 2000s many decades after Charles Dal and Richard wov identify the same patterns that ICT Traders use nowadays days many if not most ICT Traders are late Millennials or gen Z so they cannot wrap their heads around a world without Computers social media and algorithms running everything so how come da and wuff observe the same patterns that ICT Traders observe today but in a time when trading algorithms did not exist the answer is simple the patterns ICT Traders use are not
a result from algorithms running the market they reflect an aspect of the market that has always been present which is human nature stop looking for the hack or the Holy Grail new Traders looking for the Holy Grail of trading is not a new phenomenon the Holy Grail of trading does not exist and even if it did it would not exist for very long the reason is because financial markets are Dynamic systems and they react to predictions that means when a market inefficiency eventually gets discovered by a lot of Traders it tends to disappear and other
unknown inefficiencies will emerge in other words even if there was a holy gril of trading people would eventually Find out about it and the opportunity would vanish many ICT Traders have a cult following mentality what ICT says is their only source of information real education is not about the authority of the teacher it's about the empowerment of the student whenever someone says ICT coded the algorithm that delivers price PR section and you have no idea of what that actually means you either trust this claim or you don't real education Is about understanding how these ideas
surrounding this claim actually work instead of trusting people blindly new retail Traders suffer from massive cases of the Dunning Krueger effect which is when people with low level of knowledge end up overestimating their ability these Traders learn the word liquidity and they immediately feel like Geniuses without even understanding what liquidity means in a lot of cases certainty is something that usually goes Along with the illusion of knowledge as more knowledge is gained more doubts and more questions begin to appear there are two great quotes about this nche said the convictions are more dangerous FS of
Truth than lies volter said that doubt is an uncomfortable condition but certainty is a ridiculous one many ICT Traders think they are special for some reason their lack of knowledge about basic technical analysis and basic principles of Finance allows them to Treat old ideas as if they were new and to validate these ideas in the wrong way creating a vicious cycle if it's valid to use chart patterns like failure swings and non-failure swings there is no reason not to use all the other well-documented chart patterns which ICT Traders believe to be retail stuff for example
if we look at a famous chart pattern called Falling wedge or right Rising wedge will'll notice that It hides what ICT Traders call a market structure shift as we saw previously social media is all about attention what appears to you is what is more likely to capture your your attention not necessarily what is good for you in fact those two things often go in opposite directions good information is usually boring and complicated don't confuse Fame with competence just because you see a YouTube channel with a lot of hype it Doesn't mean it has something valuable
to offer the right way of learning something is going after the knowledge obtained by the Giants of the field and that knowledge is usually in scientific books and articles since the very beginning of this channel I have tried to bring the deeper knowledge of financial markets to the place where it needs it the most which is social media I don't claim to be the inventor of anything and I try to Substantiate what I say using a multidisciplinary approach I believe that to be the best approach to learning how to trade young Traders learn in ICT
don't realize that the most important algorithm involved in the ICT phenomenon is the YouTube algorithm ICT Traders like to talk about the algorithm behind price movement but in reality the algorithm behind the ICT phenomenon is the YouTube algorithm that allows misinformation to capture the Minds of novice Traders young people grew up in the context of social media so they are used to things being controlled by an algorithm they extrapolate this idea to other areas of life which is a dangerous thing thing to do they think there is an algorithm behind price Motion in the same
way there is an algorithm behind their Instagram feed lots of Traders think that learning ICT nowadays is a good thing because ICT Has released his mentorships for free in his YouTube channel people who are unaware of the basic principles of economics usually think in terms of financial cost only but there is another kind of cost which is as important if not more important than financial cost and that is opportunity cost opportunity cost is the value of the best alternative for gone when you act ICT takes 12 months to explain something that can be explained In
12 minutes imagine everything you forego when you spend all that time learning in the least efficient way possible so just because something is free doesn't mean it's good another problem is that something can be free and also incorrect many ICT Traders have created YouTube channels and they teach these Concepts in a much more efficient way compared to ICT learning for free is not good if it has a high opportunity cost if you think paying for education Is expensive it's because you haven't realized the price of ignorance yet if you start thinking in terms of opportunity
cost you will start making much better decisions the idea behind education is to decrease your learning curve not to increase it learn from the grades of technical analysis Isaac Newton once said in and I quote if I have seen further It Is by standing on the shoulders of giants that's the best way to approach The learning process of anything many smart people already have spent the time learning developing and applying several different kinds of ideas about how to trade it's only wise to learn from their mistakes and successes retail Traders are the bottom of the
food chain in the financial markets they are the market participants who need to educate themselves the most because of that and yet the reality is that retail Traders are the most Uneducated Market participants of all learn stuff outside technical analysis retail Traders cannot wrap their heads around the fact that there is a whole world of things to learn outside a price chart perhaps I'm one of the very few trading Channels with a relatively large reach that draws attention to this while appealing to the retail Traders what retail Traders are familiar with are forms of speculation
but there are lots of interesting strategies in the realm Of Arbitrage and hedging as well for example not to mention an enormous wealth of knowledge in other feuds that intersect Finance the ICT method has a mechanical appeal that is deeply attractive to Young retail Traders new Traders desperately want something simple and mechanical to extract profits from the market on a consistent basis unfortunately trading is a lot more complicated than that once you start learning the ICT method the Terminology being used gives you the impression that the market is a deterministic centralized machine and that ICT
is the person who created it needless to say at this point reality is the precise opposite of that the market is an amalgamation of tens of thousands of variables most of which we cannot know especially if we are simply looking at a price chart decentralization is an inherent feature of any market trading is a probabilistic game not a Deterministic one it's a decentralized game not a centralized one 99.9% of retail Traders have no idea how to measure trading performance so they use intuitions outside of trading to gauge their success this leads them to talk about
performance in terms of how much money they have made in the short term this is wildly deceptive trading performance is a lot trickier than retail Traders think evidence of that is that there is a whole area of Finance Dedicated to study it called performance appraisal or performance evaluation whenever you talk about trading performance you must keep in mind foundational Concepts such as benchmarking risk adjusted performance metrics and opportunity cost otherwise you'll simply mislead yourself and no it's not just about making money in the long term because there are ways of doing that in a manner
that doesn't justify the opportunity cost but that's A subject for another time new Traders make the mistake of trying to find proof in trading which is what common sense tells them to do the problem with this is that Common Sense only works in things that are simple trading is a unique and complex domain using common sense and intuition will make you arrive at the wrong conclusions which will ultimately make you lose money and time unnecessarily Traders are always looking for proof About techniques Concepts and strategies but it's impossible to prove something will continue to work
in the markets the reality is that the probabilities associated with trading techniques change over time because of that it is a consensus in finance to focus on practices that have the greatest chance of using good results instead of focusing on the outcome itself as annoying as the sounds that's especially true when we Recall that the outcome of your trades is a function of internal variables some of which you can control like knowledge some of which you cannot control like Risk tolerance and external variables all of which you can not control Amalgamated in what Traders refer
to as chance the knowledge about the practices that have the best chance of producing good results dwells in finance and they are often not intuitive nor immediately obvious in other words you should seek To learn Universal and atemporal information about how the markets work ICT claims to be the mentor of your Mentor because many people have stolen his mentorship materials to sell around the internet which makes him ironically upset if ICT is the mentor of your Mentor then Charles Dell Richard wov and Peter styom are the mentors of the mentor of your Mentor you have
a lot to gain if you study the materials of these older Gentlemen the bottom line if using the ICT method helps you in some way by all means do it just make sure you give credit to all the other people who contributed immensely to the ideas involved now that you understand the origins of these Concepts however if you limit yourself to ICT you'll miss a lot of useful knowledge about many other types of opportunities that exist in trading and a lot of knowledge about risk management Behavioral finance and Market micr structure let's now look at
some of the ICT Traders claims you see around social media I got funded using ICT great you got funded using technical analysis you just didn't know that was the case beyond that getting funded is only the result from very short-term performance which is highly misleading evidence that getting funded is almost meaningless is the fact that most people who get funded lose the account right after recall that In performance appraisal in finance a minimum of 36 months of performance are necessary just to begin the assessment of performance with a sufficient degree of statistical reliability I got
payouts using ICT congratulations once again you got payouts using old ideas in technical analysis without realizing it ICT said this is the only thing you need to quit your job do not ever quit your job to depend just on retail Trading that's a very stupid idea retail Traders can only depend on trading performance for a living and that's not stable enough to provide a recurrent form of income for short-term responsibilities recall that making a living something that most gen Z people have no idea how it works is about paying bills recurrently not buying a yach
or traveling to Dubai not even institutional Traders depend just on performance to make a living they are Rewarded based on a dual fee structure because of the instability of trading performance so if even institutional Traders don't depend just on trading performance maybe it's safe to say that a retail Trader will not either this ICT model has x% win rates new Traders don't understand that the win rate of a strategy is variable over time so you cannot say that a strategy has a particular win rate we can only say that a strategy had a particular win
Rate in the past and the annoying thing about trading is that this is not an indication that this win rate will continue like this in the future the probabilities associated with the trading patterns and strategies change over time because markets are a second order chaotic system meaning a system that reacts to predictions that means that inefficiencies emerge and disappear unpredictably they are not a static Feature of the market this is also the reason why trading systems are not a s and forget solution they have unknown expiration dates when is the algorithm going to change row
some ICT Traders assume that the supposed algorithm that runs the market works like the social media algorithms that change from time to time this is what happens when late Millennials and gen Z try to understand something they always assume there is an Algorithm behind everything because as the world they grew up in they don't realize there that there is no centralized algorithm running the financial markets like there is an algorithm behind Instagram for example the social media algorithms are responsible to make them think that way though learn order flow bro I've seen a lot of
ICT Traders talking about order flow while looking at candles only which is highly misleading order flow is the Study of real time and historical buy and sell orders and the traditional tools associated with order flow are depth of Market or Dom times in sales or tape footprint chart Market profile volume profile volume Delta cumulative volume Delta Heat Maps view up and the list goes on all these tools provide insights that cannot be seen using candles only and all these tools spawn directly or indirectly from style Myers auction Market Theory from the 80s that's it for
this course I could go on here but I believe I have made my point and I have given you the material that will allow you to reduce your learning curve substantially if you like the way I teach please check out my premium courses and ebooks in the video description there are also a lot of free courses in my channel if you have any questions you can contact me at support ATF fractal flowpro Docomo flowpro docomo made it this far please help support the channel by clicking the like button subscribing to the channel Channel activating the
notifications giving your feedback in the comment section and sharing the video thank you very much for watching and I hope to see you in the next videos take care