Horse Racing Handicapping Tutorial - Form

[Music] hi everyone Matthew to sanis here with naira bets and welcome to this handicapping 101 tutorial on form make sure to like this video And subscribe to The Nair BET's YouTube channel these videos are a great way for beginners to get acclimated to the sport and for those who are more experienced just to get a little freshening today we're talking about form which may be one of the more nuanced and complex elements to handicapping in this series of videos that we've developed on Nair but it is a valuable element to handicapping to understand form and

to understand how form or better said how a horse is currently running and understanding the elements that go into that the Dynamics and variables that are at play when evaluating whether or not a horse is going to put forth their best effort on a given race day so let's talk and dive into some of the different elements of form so form simply refers to how is a horse running coming into a race are they in good form are they in bad form you'll hear those terms used regularly good form means the horse has been showing

very solid very consistent efforts maybe even improving efforts every single time out they've been running very consistently at this level doesn't mean they win every race but they're running very honest they tend to be finishing in the money in the top three maybe the top four but they're in good form overall bad form might indicate that the horse has fallen off what they've done in the past that they are not longer competitive at a particular level or they are struggling to maintain their speed late in a race or any number of different Dynamics but form

simply refers to what is the quality of horse coming into this particular race so looking at form requires Trend analysis you don't just want to look at One race they last race or their even their last two races you really want to look back over time to see how has a horse been doing their last five six seven eight nine races to get a sense of what is the general trajectory of this horse have they been running roughly the same speed figures have they been running against roughly the same competition over this time how has

their performance been during that stretch have they been improving have they been declining understanding are they moving up in class they moving down in class are they moving from one type of track to a different type of track have they switched surfaces there's a lot of different dynamics that go into understanding form additionally there's the element of layoffs we'll talk about this in a little bit more detail in a second but horses will regularly get breaks particularly over the winter for Turf horses when there's not as much running on the grass at different tracks but

generally speaking all horses will receive a little bit of a break in between their races at some point usually a horse runs back on maybe four to six weeks rest is a common layoff and a common turnaround for a race but sometimes you'll see horses get five six seven months off maybe even longer perhaps there was a minor injury or they just want the horse to mature and develop a little bit more over the winter but understanding how does a horse respond coming back from a layoff that's also a critical element of form do they

pick up right where they left off probably not how many r does it take for them to get back into their top form the nice part is if this is a horse that's a little bit older there's a good chance that you can go back and look at how did this horse perform the last time they got a layoff the last time they had a break in their Racing for quite a while how many races did it take for them to come back and run their best effort so the horse will a lot of times

tell you their caliber of racing and quality of racing that they're going to do coming off of the bench but there's other factors it can also influence form running for a new trainer and a new barn perhaps a new trainer has a new training tactic for a particular horse maybe they decide to change the distance the horse traditionally runs perhaps cutting the horse back a horse that had been running a mile and a half or a mile and a quarter might only be running seven furlongs now and seven e of a mile that changes the

Dynamics quite a bit maybe they changed surfaces a horse that had been traditionally running on dirt now suddenly runs on turf or a horse that had been on Turf starts running on synthetic but there are changes that new trainers can make that sometimes will lead a horse to new form it's not uncommon to see horses show improved or sometimes declining form after changing Barns and after getting claimed the other thing to can take into consideration is class and track changes I discussed this in detail in my handicapping 101 tutorial on class so I encourage you

to check that out if you have not watched it yet but obviously understanding moving up and down in class can have an impact on how effective the horse is horse might be very very good against one level of competition but when they step up against tougher competition they might struggle but when they drop back down against the competition that they Ed to run against their form naturally returns to them and they start running very good races again as I mentioned earlier you could see surface changes and then there's also equipment and Las exchanges we'll go

into more detail for this in a second but these are other variables that can have an impact on the form a horse can take and it's a little bit of a guessing game if it's the first time those horses are getting those equipment or lace exchanges in a particular race so let's talk about some additional handicapping rules so I mentioned earlier that horses will regularly get a layoff and this is particularly true for Turf horses as I mentioned in the winter months a lot of turf horses do not run over the winter because particularly Northern

based horses there's just simply not grass racing in New York and in other northern states because of the weather and the turf conditions and so if these horses don't want to run on synthetic at a place like presy or Turfway park or go down to Florida and run on the turf at Tampa Bay Downs or Gulfstream Park then they generally get a little bit of a break over the winter when a hores comes back from a layoff you tend to see them a little bit Rusty that first time out it's not all that surprising imagine

yourself if you regularly working out and then you stop working out over the winter because it's too cold outside you don't feel like waking up early in the mornings and running in 15 degree weather well that first time you get back out in the spring you're going to be a little rusty the time you run is not going to be as good as the time you were running back when you were in your Peak conditions that might take you a couple of races a couple of weeks to get back in good form and that's exactly

what we see with horses as well some horses are very good at coming right back and responding very positively after a layoff other horses take a little bit longer additionally some trainers are a little bit more effective at getting horses ready off the layoff other trainers are a little less effective one example of this is a trainer like Chad Brown Chad Brown is very good at getting his horses to run well off of a layoff a lot of times you'll see Trad brown horses have a lot of workouts before they come back from a significant

layoff they could work out 10 12 14 times before a particular race coming back from a layoff they because of that they've developed a lot of conditioning they've developed better stamina and they're able to put their best foot forward in that first effort doesn't mean they always win but you're going to get a little bit more of an honest effort there and there's a better chance that horse returns to form now on the flip side you might have a trainer like Suge mahi he's a trainer who generally will work his horses out a few times

coming back from a layoff but he tends to like to run his horses into shape a lot of trainers whether it's Mah Ken mCP or D Wayne Lucas will say that a race is worth three workouts and so it's one of those things where they'll race their horses to work them into shape so a lot of times their horses run best second or third time back from a layoff when their conditioning is improved and that's even true for Chad Brown or Todd Pletcher horses that have a little bit more success first time out now I

mentioned equipment is a big deal as well and the addition of blinkers or recent gilding can have a particular impact on form so the addition of blinkers can sometimes change how a horse has been running so perhaps a horse has lacked early speed putting blinkers on can help Focus that horse and get more early speed out of that horse and we have seen horses change their form entirely once they get blinkers put on they become a totally different horse additionally sometimes horses are herd animals that's something always to keep in mind they like running with

each other not past each other and so sometimes putting blinkers on can help a horse focus in the stretch and run past their competition rather than just hanging out and running with their friends which sometimes can happen and we'll see horses quote unquote hang in late in a race when they Loom up on a horse run right next to that horse but not by that horse and so blinkers can sometimes have that added effect of helping them focus and run past a horse so blinkers can absolutely change the form you end up seeing out of

a horse a recent gelding can sometimes make a horse more fit and sometimes a little bit more pliant it can help them if they're particularly fractures or they get worked up before a race this can help calm them down a little bit focus them a little bit more there are some trainers and some handicappers who really like using that gilding angle quite a bit now the final thing to mention here is switching on and off Lasix lasx is a medication that helps with pulmonary breathing and so it's something to keep in mind that horses will

many times run a little bit better on Lasix than off Lasix and so paying attention to this and when you look in the past performances you'll see an L next to a horse's information and that simply means that this horse is running with Lasix or without Lasix if you do not see the L a horse switching off lasic might suddenly Show worse form than they had been previously similarly a horse switching back onto Lasix might suddenly revert back to a much better form than they had showed in their recent starts when they were not running

with Lasix because they might need that medication to run at their best level so this is something to keep in mind when you're handicapping and analyzing form in different context now let's look at a couple of practical examples so this is from a recent race up here in New York between two horses and obviously there's more than just these two in the race but these two are quite interesting to look at from a standpoint of form so we'll start with the number eight first time in forever for trainer Leonard Powell and this is a horse

that's 5 to2 in the morning line with jockey flavy and pra board and what is notable about this horse's form is notice the change in speed figures when this horse changed tracks this is a horse that had been running out at Santa Anita and running in the mid 80s in terms of buyer speed figures and running against pretty solid optional claiming and allowance level competition the horse transfers and goes to New York now still running for Leonard Powell but now goes to New York and starts running against State bred allowance company and suddenly the horse

hasn't shown quite as good a form the speed figures are about 10 points lower and this horse now finished sixth in the last race despite winning two out of three of its previous races at Santa Anita so this is something to keep in mind that this horse's form might not quite be at the level it was a couple of races ago at Santa Anita and perhaps this horse isn't quite as comfortable running in the races at New York over the turf course at a different track something to keep in mind now on the other side

look at the number 10 can't fool me this is a horse that's six to1 for training htio depas this is a horse that's caught a little bit of bad luck you'll notice that a few of their recent Turf races have been taken off the grass that's where you see the dirt form and you'll see the X next to the distance of the race this is a race that was taken off the turf obviously this horse does not run well in the dirt and so you can really draw a line as a handicapper through those dirt

races and ignore that form what you see otherwise is a horse that had been running pretty well against allowance level competition and then went to the bench for several months so from November 2023 to May 2024 the horse did not race at all however the horse came back in May 2024 against this level of competition allowance State bred competition and ran a very good race ran a 78 buyer speed figure which is actually higher than what your favorite First Time in Forever has been running in New York and nearly just missed out on the win

finishing second by a neck now second time off the bench this horse can't fool me could make another step forward and improve even even more so this is a classic example where I would probably be against the favor in this particular case I'd be very interested and looking at the number 10 can't fool me but that's what it says on paper let's see how it plays out on the track so coming for home first time in forever strikes to the front under flavan Pratt and you start to see the horse put a little bit of

distance between them and the other Front Runners however now can't fool me starts to come rolling on the outside and ultimately can't fool me gets the win over First Time in Forever both horses ran very well and certainly first time in forever no disrespect to the effort that horse turned in finishing second which was an improved effort over its last time out but can't fool me showed this horse had another level to get to and could take a step forward and improve next time off the bench well let's take a look at a horse that

experienced a surface change this is an interesting one this is a horse that was running in a Stakes race at parks down in outside of Philadelphia in Ben Salem Pennsylvania this is a horse that had started its career on the dirt and then trainer catha Lynch decides to switch this horse to the turf you'll see they tried to switch this horse two races ago but the race at Pen National got rained off the grass and was run on the dirt this horse was running in the low the high 40s to mid-50s in terms of buyer

speed figures and after breaking its Maiden ran a very distant fifth and third in two subsequent starts however then they finally got this horse on the grass you'll notice that I've also highlighted The Sire kittens Joy this is a sire that is known for producing very good Turf horses and so they get this horse on the turf and they run this horse against Stakes competition despite the fact this horse was not competitive against lower level competition allowance and optional claiming races leading up to this but they get this horse on the grass and the horse

runs fifth admittedly against Stakes competition but notice this horse went from running third by 15 lengths in this previous race to running fifth by only two and a half lengths that's quite the shift in form in Just One race you'll also notice the buyer speed figures for this horse went from a 56 to a 74 on the turf so this is a horse that as we would say perked up over the new Surface now this horse comes into a Stakes race at parks as your 8 to1 Morning Line choice and let's see how travesso ends

up running in this race at parks and so travesso is the gry horse looming up on the outside and let me tell you something this horse loves running on grass because he just zoomed right by everyone and has really taken to this new Surface starts to stretch out starts to get a little bit tired or maybe un focused in the stretch and drifting out a little bit but ultimately this is a horse that is much the best on the day winning a Stakes race only two races after losing by over 15 lengths to its competition

on the dirt so this is a prime example of a horse that provided Great Value and opportunity on a new Surface and this changed the form that the horse had been showing now let's give a final historical example and that is one of archangelo and this is an example that I also use something similar when talking about class and talking about some other elements of handicapping in other words Young Horses can continue to progress so archangelo who won the 2023 Belmont Stakes and Travers stakes and at the end of the year was awarded Champion three-year-old

this is a horse that progressively got better every single start and this is something to keep in mind with younger horses as it relates to their form their form is going to be changing from race to race it's important to understand that young horses could experience huge growth from year to year think of this when you were even younger yourself playing different sports you all know that there were certain players maybe it was yourself that got better from year to year they experience a growth spurt they get stronger they get bigger they fill out just

get to be more athletic as they get more older as they get more experienced and that's what we see with archangelo a horse that progressively got better every single start and so this was one where you didn't want to classify this horse as just being a grade three level horse or anything along those lines this is a horse that got better every single start faster every single start and kept beating better and better competition every time out and so this is an example of form changing over time in terms of a young horse that constantly

was running better so what are some key takeaways to things about form First Take the Long View on a horse's performance look over time how has this horse been running over the last year has this horse been on an upward downward trajectory what type of races is this hor is running what tracks is are this horse running at these are things to take into consideration has this horse been recently switched to a new barn new trainers new Surface is this horse getting an equipment change maybe those things could have impacted form all of these variables

need to be taken into consideration is the horse coming back from a significant layoff is the horse running now maybe their second or third race back from that layoff when perhaps they'll show their best form Etc so you have to note any and all changes from prior races that could impact the current race and understanding how that could have an impact on form there's a lot more detail that we'll get into in the handicapping 2011 series on all of these different elements of how to understand the sport better and how to connect yourself to the

winners I hope you enjoyed this particular video and make sure to like this video And subscribe to Net's YouTube channel and watch all of our other handicapping 101 and betting 101 tutorials my name is Matthew Des sanis wishing you a great and profitable day at the races and reminding you friends it's now post time