So Yesterday Sam alwin made this post called three observations and it is an insightful document that details life in 20135 and I think most people are missing the mark when it comes to this document because there are certain things discussed that most people aren't even looking at that pertain to exactly how AI will be integrated into society so without further Ado let's actually dive into these specific details because I think most people are missing a lot of the details when it comes to the beauty of this blog post so basically this article starts and he starts by saying that you know systems that start to point towards AGI and if you're wondering why he puts this you know Asters right here and this is because of course the Microsoft deal that they have with them is something that has been in question and they actually make a reference to this at the end but that's not the main point they basically say that like look right now the systems that are starting to point to AGI are starting to come into fruition and it's quite important to understand you know the moment we're in and basically talks about how AGI is weakly defined but generally speaking it's basically a system that can tackle increasingly complex problems at a human level in many fields and I do believe that you know it's quite likely that we will get a system that is truly you know encompassing of these capabilities by at least 2027 now he also continues to State okay and I think this is something that you shouldn't Miss as well and the reason I say that like you know you shouldn't miss this as well is because I think that this AI stuff is more important than before if you aren't familiar you know the last few days you know I had a surgery I was in hospital and all that kind of stuff and luckily I am back right now still recovering but I want to say that like when when I was out of the AI space I don't think most people still truly grasp what AI was able to do and getting out of that AI bubble for such a short amount of time allowed me to understand exactly where we are in terms of the you know Collective Consciousness for artificial intelligence and the thing that you know you know he says here is that you know each new generation builds upon the previous discoveries of other ones like electricity the transistor the computer and when we actually look at all of these things all of these things are tremendously important like right now you're probably somewhere where you have electricity if you're watching this on a device like your phone a mobile a laptop computer that is of course powered by electricity transistor is of course the thing that makes you know all of these things work the computer the internet like all of these things are things that are literally the backbone of society right now and are things that we literally just take for granted and once again I think we're moving into something that is you know probably 10 times more impactful than that and the average person just doesn't really you know I don't want to say pay attention but it seems like they almost don't care like everyone's wrapped up in their own bubbles to see this thing on the horizon but you know this is going to be something that is bigger than the you know the electricity transistor the computer and the internet and I think it's important to understand that now he also says that you know basically this time is different and he says that the economic growth in front of all of us looks astonishing and we can now imagine a world where we cure all diseases now this is something that Sam mman has said in the past to some criticism and and I think it was because number one samman is a pretty hypy person like he does you know go on the hype train quite a bit I mean notably because you know his company's always trying to raise money which does make sense but I also think it's because you know if we think about what AI is able to do at a base level like if we just take a look at the fact that okay AI is able to potentially you know connect certain things and it's an AI that can look at connections between certain things and if we look at how certain diseases were solved in the past it's quite likely that we will get AI systems that are going to be able to do that in the future and I think it's just a sense that you know with samman's hype and the fact that when we look at how we've solved major diseases in the past like sometimes I think it was penicillum that was a mold that was literally an accident I think we have you know multiple AIS submitting theories and a way to validate those theories at scale then definitely I do think you know we could be in a world where we cure all diseases especially when you know we're going to be able to simulate the human body all those kind of things run you know of a billion different experiments we're going to have intelligence that's 10 times smarter than us I think it's going to be super super interesting to see how you know Healthcare is something that changes and you know the there are so many different areas of growth that like 2035 we're going to have that like most people when we look back on how 2025 is I think it's how we'll look back on you know 2025 now to maybe like 1995 in terms of technology I mean the technology difference from now to then is quite Stark and I think you know another 10 years people might be like whoa you know things really did change and we won't be able to pinpoint you know what point that was now um of course another crazy statement as well and this is why I always Advocate that most people should be learning the AI tools is that in a decade perhaps everyone one on earth will be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today and that's that's a crazy statement but I do think that it is quite true I think that you know in the future when you have an AI agent that can do a billion different things for you you could have multiple AI agent swarms you could have a humanoid robot that's able to go off and do things for you in your house I mean I don't think there's going to be a limit to what you can do you're probably going to be thinking what you know you should do so there are basically three main statements that he does make about the year 2035 and I think when you understand these statements you understand why this blog post is so profound so he says here that the intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it and these resources are chiefly you know training compute which is of course something that I don't want to say is a scarce resource right now but they are currently building out so with the project Stargate that everyone knows is being built that $500 billion data center people are like why are you building out Stargate why why are you investing $500 billion guys and so with that I think you know when you start to understand that look $500 billion for a data center actually makes sense when you realize that this thing increases the intelligence of the model not just you know Brute Force but like overall in terms of you apply that to every section of the model output in terms of like the training the inference the data all of that stuff right here you can see that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains and the scaling laws and I think this is one of the most things here I'm going to highlight this because I think most people miss this but he said that the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many many or orders of magnitude so I think this one the reason that this statement here is so important is because it's probably accurate to say that they probably did some kind of test that showcases that you know the more compute you spend on you know I guess you know they already did kind of show us this but like the more compute you do spend is like you know the more intelligence you do get now of course that's something that everyone knows but when I say that I mean that like you know how previously with 03 we had a million doll training run what they wanted to Showcase with that training run was that as long as they can keep spending more money on Compu not spending more money but as at least they can keep providing a system with more compute power in terms of you know getting a better answer the intelligence of the model gets up and I think they're stating that this is you know true over many orders of magnitude so I'm guessing that maybe maybe and this is just a hunch that maybe the opening ey probably did test this further I'm not sure exactly how much it cost they'd probably be under some kind of scrutiny if they were like oh we had you know a $10 million question that we asked Ai and it was able to you know potentially solve something maybe not even solve something but just get even smarter on a certain benchmark Mar of course it's not feasible now due to the current cost of the model but provided that they know that these models get smarter with more compute I think this is definitely going to change everything because that is something that would allow them to you know secure you know the data center for example like you know they're not just going to build a $500 billion data center just because you know you've got chat TBT doing a few cool tricks it's because you know having that kind of intelligence is really important to National Security and I think that is probably what occurred here which means that if they're stating that these scaling laws are accurate over many orders of magnitude ude it's quite likely that you know we're in the early stages of this intelligence era now of course they talk about this and this one is something that has changing the game now um I wasn't you know here for the main deep seek Fiasco but they talk about how the cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10 times every 12 months and lower prices lead to more use so this one's pretty crazy it's quite relevant to now and I think this will change you know how things go in the future like it's going to be insane the amount that the average person is going to be able to do with just how these models are getting and this is you know you know 10 times cheaper every 12 months is incredible because that basically means you get you know the like the frontier level of intelligence for 10 times cheaper every 12 months and it means that you know what you can do next year is going to increase basically by 10 times in terms of you know your USD value like however much you have to spend on you know I guess you could say the average level of compute which is pretty crazy so it says you can see that the token cost from gbt 4 in early 2023 to gbt 40 in mid 2024 where the price token can dropped about 150 times in that period okay and Mo's law changed the world two times every 18 months and this law is unbelievably stronger so we can imagine maybe in two years using models that are as smart as 03 mini for for maybe like the price of GPT 4 at the moment which is going to be pretty insane and I think the reason that this is so crazy is because rapidly declining price okay most people don't know this but rapidly declining price in AI means that there are going to be you know societal changes and that is because if AI decides not AI decides but if the price of AI becomes lower than it is now like just monumentally low to the point it's practically free that isn't just a thing where it's like okay the price of AI is low that's cool what we have to look at is that okay the price of AI is lower but that actually means that the price of intelligence has dropped to practically zero which then means that systems or companies or businesses that we use to build and we used to have you know intelligence that was quite expensive you know you'd have to hire people pay them 100K 200k a year you know what happens when you can pay 10 100 people you know $100 a month that is going to completely change society so this rapidly declining price I think this is something that you know uh it talks about you know later on in in this blog post and that's something that I really want to drive home that's going to be absolutely insane in the year 2035 and I think when we start to not value intelligence as much if it is abundant that's going to have a really really really significant impact on how Society functions and operates and it's going to be interesting it's going to be interesting to see what Society values most if it is not intelligent so that is going to be something that I think is you know a third fourth order consequence that most people aren't paying attention to and it would be wise to learn how to use these intelligences now of course you know they talk about how the socioeconomic value of lineally increasing intelligence is super exponential in nature and is basically saying that you know a consequence of this is that we see no reason for exponentially increasing investment to stop in the near future so for those of you guys who think that currently we are in an AI bubble I would argue that we are and it doesn't matter okay because I think you have to understand that like this is something that happens once and after this The Event Horizon is completely different so whilst yes there have been bubbles of the past where you know the technology happens and it kind of integrates the society this is probably the only technology that continues to build even further upon itself which means that we don't know how far this technology can go and will go because I mean I'm not going to say that we're going to start building Dyson spheres next year but the I'm trying to make here is that like this is super exponential in nature what that means is that okay right now you know you got companies that are investing billions of dollars in AI maybe they can cut their staff marketing by let's say uh I don't know a few hundred thousand a year okay that's the kind of investment there you got some companies they're worth a few billion dollars then because AI manages to open up you know it manages to solve certain things now you've got entire new industries that weren't existing before then there's more AI investment into that once those Industries are built more Industries are built and it's just like you're compounding you know it keep keeps on keeps on keeps on going so this is why there's probably not going to be any you know investment slowdown in the near future of course there was the Deep seek Fiasco which you know people were scared and you know there was just a whole bunch of fud and just you know a lot of misinformation floating around and I think that that you know situation was more bullish for AI rather than bearish for AI which you know people can you know agree or disagree with but the point here is that there won't be people stopping investing in AI because it is still going to be one of the most powerful things across every area of society it's something that won't slow down provided there are continued and it's something that won't slow down provided there are continued breakthroughs across the industry now of course you can see right here the samman says if these three observations continue to hold true which you know they are quite likely to do then the impacts on society will be significant so this is something that you know is going to be very very interesting because like I said before with all those three things happening Society is going to have to change you do not get you know Epoch defining technology that you know just simply make Society go the same ways and I think there will be a tipping point at which society will demand change whether it be from you know politicians saying that okay look we have to enact this policy or whether it be the individuals who are in society that demand some kind of change because the way that Society functions just doesn't work and I think this is something that I've seen iterated time and time again this is something that I first found out when I started doing a lot of this AI research I was like if this thing you know continues Society is going to change and I want to be one of the first people to realize this change so I can become adaptable before said change as well now another thing that he speaks about is the virtual co-workers right now these virtual co-workers are not great but they're still doing a lot of work and I think you know in a few years it's going to be pretty insane to see what these virtual co-workers can do so you can see right here um they talk about how let's imagine the case of a software engineering agent something that you know we constantly get references to which is an agent that we expect to be particularly important imagine that this agent will eventually be capable of doing most things the software engineer at a top company with a few years of experience could do for tasks up to a couple of days long and it will not have the biggest new ideas it require lots of human supervision and Direction but the point they're trying to make here is that even if this is super super basic just imagine it as you know something like a coworker but imagine a thousand of them or a million of them and imagine those agents okay in every different field of work like every potential food that you could imagine them in healthcare imagine them I don't know gaming I don't know whatever you think of it imagine a million agents just working over time to come to some kind of solution that is going to be serious economic productivity because when we're thinking about it it's like we're basically duplicating human intelligence and doing it by a thousand or even a million basically depending on how much compute we have and that's going to have serious implications for how much you can do how much work can get done how quickly things can get done because I mean a lot of the times one of the things that you have is you have an economy that works from let's say 9:00 a. m. to 5:00 p.
m. that's most economies but what if you have an economy that's 24/7 you know you have an economy that's working 24/7 everyone is working 24/7 not everyone of course as humans we have to go to sleep but while we're asleep the AIS are working faster more efficient no breaks no deadlines and just constantly constantly going on I mean how fast is the economy going to move how fast is you know 10 years from now 2035 so this is why I think you know the virtual co-workers thing is pretty crazy so of course he talks about you know the the world will not change all at once of course this is why I think that most people don't realize it's changing because the change is happening very very slowly but you know he says but the future will be coming at us in a way that's almost impossible to ignore the long-term changes to our society will be huge now of course one thing that I want you guys to take away from this video is that correctly deciding what to do and figureing out how to navigate an everchanging world will have huge value that's something that I also do believe of course you know you know just like when when you have an abundance of options and things to do it's always going to be important to figure out what you do and not just doing a bunch of stuff cuz anyone can do a bunch of stuff that's going to be something that you can do and it's always good to you know be in your industry whichever industry you are in know how AI is impacting the industry see if there are new areas that you could become you know a leader at the the best at I don't know I mean it's always good to be plugged in and I think everyone that's in you know this kind of channel in this kind of space watching these kind of videos has a tremendous advantage over anyone who simply isn't because the the the level of change that is coming it is going to come and it is going to change things so much that I don't think Society will look the same when we look back on it you know 10 years from now so another thing that they talk about here and this is something you know where we start to get into to a little bit of concerning areas but I've discussed these before and I'm going to discuss them again because he talks about how the impact of AGI is going to be uneven and this is something that you know I don't see how we solve this issue because Society is already on this hyperdrive way to where it's going to be so uneven that I genuinely don't even know how you know we we we we we stop this so remember how I spoke about how if intelligence of these if these models okay are dropping 10x every you know couple of months the price of many Goods will eventually fall dramatically as the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy can strain a lot of things and the price of luxury goods and a few limited resources like land may rise even more dramatically so basically talking about how the price you know the impact of AGI is going to be you know uneven and that's not really good for society and I know this is you know talking about how the impact of AGI like it's going to impact Fields like I think it's going to impact Fields like software engineering a lot I think it's going to impact Fields like healthcare science you know those Tech enabled you know like those really like stem I think those areas are going to impa be impacted quite a lot like that impact is going to they definitely feel it a lot more not in a bad way but in a good way I still think that you know later I'm going to talk to you guys about how it's going to impact society and individuals unevenly as well so it's going to be super interesting to how you know see how that occurs as well now you know what they do talk about of course is of deployment one thing that you know you may have known is that like they don't just deploy insane models at once and this is because they don't want people to freak out about how crazy the models are what I mean by that is that like when GPT 4 dropped off the GPT 3.
