What could Donald Trump's return to power mean for Europe? | Inside Story

European leaders meet with the consequences of Donald Trump's election dominating talks the war in Ukraine relations with Russia NATO and trade and tariff fears are all under scrutiny so what might be in store for Europe with Trump back and power this is Inside Story [Music] hello and welcome to the program I'm Tom McCrae European leaders gathered just as Donald Trump's election whenn unfolded not to celebrate his victory but to analyze its implications at a summit planned long before his win now while Trump is yet to State his policies European leaders are nervous about any big

shifts from the Biden Administration on the Ukraine war relations with Russia and NATO the war has led to militarization levels within Europe not seen since World War II with fears of it widening into a full-blown conflict between Russia and the West it has also damaged Europe's economy sanctions Banning Imports of Russian oil and gas have caused energy costs to fluctuate the continent's industrial Powerhouse Germany has been hit particularly hard now in a second year of recession any new trade war with a new white house administration would be coming at a particularly bad time for Europe

so what will Trump's return mean for Europe and for NATO and the war between Russia and Ukraine we'll be talking to our guest shortly but first this report from Hamza Muhammad European leaders meet at a summit in the Hungarian Capital Budapest in the week of Donald Trump's election Victory Central to discussions is what a trump presidency will mean for the continent and what uncertainty it might bring he was elected by the American people and he's going to defend the interests of the Americans and that's legitimate and that's a good thing the question is are we

ready to defend the interests of Europeans during his campaign Trump said he could end the Ukraine war in a day but never said how the EU and UK have strongly backed Ukraine sending weapons and money to bolster its defense against Russia but there are divisions in Europe too Hungarian prime minister Victor auban an ally of trump has called for a ceasefire where we are at this moment is that there is no communication and the first precondition of every piece is communication and the precondition of communication is the ceasefire Ukraine fears that Trump might cut its

military support and strike a deal with Russia opinion poll suggest more ukrainians do support talks to end the war but Ukraine's leader is critical of OB ceasefire calls I think it's very dangerous rhetoric we understand which leaders Implement and raise this rhetoric concerning the ceasefire it's a very scary challenge for all our citizens us and Russia relations have effectively collapsed since the war but Putin says he's open to talks with Trump the desire to restore relations with Russia to help bring the Ukrainian crisis to an end I think that deserves attenion at the very least

and I take this opportunity to congratulate Trump on his election as president of the United States of America in the past Trump accused NATO members of not spending enough on their own defense and relying too much on the US he even threatened to pull out of the alliance in one campaign speech he said he would encourage Russia to attack countries that don't pay their way into NATO reducing military Reliance on the US is now on the European agenda we must do what is necessary for our security together as the European Union as Europeans this will

be particularly successful if everyone makes their contribution the US and Europe are Military Allies but they are fears of a war on a different front trade his American fast platform and protectionist policies mean he could impose tariffs on European inputs as he did last time European leaders say they are ready to respond if so but with Germany and other countries we can economically by the Ukraine war none will be relishing the prospect of a trade battle with the US Hamza Muhammad Al jaaz for Inside Story okay let's bring in our guest now inise is Philip

short a biographer of Vladimir Putin and a former foreign correspondent with the BBC and Brussels is Don opak Khan professor of politics at the school of law and government at Dublin City University and in London is Chris weer the CEO of macro advisory a strategic consultancy focused on Russia and Eurasia thank you very much for being with us here on inside story today a lot to get through obviously with Trump being uh elected and Jud to take office on January the 20th Philip if I can begin with you I mean given the unpredictability of trump

and what we saw in his first term as well as the threats he has made during his campaign how nervous should European leaders be right now with looking ahead to the next four years I think there are two factors that they need to take into account one is that Europe is politically not very strong at the moment if you look at the two main countries France and Germany France uh president macron does not have a majority in Parliament which means he can't pass legislation and the German government has just collapsed this is not the greatest

situ situation to to meet the the return of a very disruptive and radical president in the United States so that's that's a problem um the other thing you mentioned unpredictability if anybody tells you at the moment that they know what Trump is going to do uh they're they're making it up Trump himself probably has not yet decided exactly what he's going to do towards Europe or even towards Ukraine and Russia certainly will try uh to do something to uh fulfill his campaign pledges of ending the war with Ukraine but how he's going to do it

again it's very much up in the air so for the next few months I think we're we're great uncertainty yeah I guess uh from what we we know from what he has said and how he's acted in the past that it will no doubt be America first and foremost and that will uh form the basis of most of the decisions uh that he made Don given the political and economic fragility that Philip was talking about there that seems to be spreading across Europe especially in Germany and as well as France I mean is Trump's win

basically coming at the worst possible time for Europe yes it is um you know not least because Europe is is at War because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Europe is is not united we have a European Union but despite the name it's not a unitary state and certainly doesn't act as a as a major geopolitical actor uh and it's not secure simply because for many years the member states haven't really invested in defense that's why we have that uh dependence on the US security umbrella which is of course institutionalized in NATO and for some

time in European elections there's been a battle for the soul of Europe if I can call it that uh between two very different Visions you you could say that either Europe integrates and becomes stronger and becomes an actor in its own right or it fragment and we've already seen what that can lead to in the case of brexit but we have other players uh within the European Union spoilers with an illiberal nationalist Vision who are mini trumps you might say in Europe so they are going to be very emboldened uh I mean Victor Orban yesterday

in Budapest was like a cat who's just had his cream I mean he was more or less able to say look I Told You So my vision is in descendant your vision of uh you know a European Union based on liberal values is in Decline yeah he certainly made that point very strongly yesterday it looked like his gamble over the last few years has paid off with Trump winning the white house uh Chris as Europe prepared for the potential economic storm when it comes to trade and tariffs that uh that Trump could bring over the

next four years and and if not why not and what does it need to do to prepare itself well I think as the previous two speakers have said I've noted uh the the Europe is not in a good position economically or in terms of political Unity uh so if it is challenged by a more assertive us and and a more aggressive uh US Presidential policy then it's not in a good you know position to to defend itself or or to come up with uh you know responses so you know uh it is certainly expected that

Donald Trump will uh focus a great deal on trade on the economy we have to remember that you know he won the election on domestic issues not on foreign policy but on domestic issues he has promised people that he will improve the economy he's promised people better jobs he has promised people that he will you know stop the import of cheap Goods that are taking away American jobs so a trade battle uh trade War might be a bit too much uh we could certainly Say it'll be a lot more aggressive with with China we had

that before uh and and of course it is something that b Administration has been dealing with as well so Trump will first of all go after China in terms of tariffs uh and to try to to rebalance if you like trade with China but there will be implications for Europe as well uh and I think it certainly will be up to the European leadership uh how that proceeds how they engage initially with Trump if they if they like put the barriers up themselves and you know want to defend Europe and not to engage then I

think it'll be tough but if there's more engagement then you know perhaps we might see uh it easier in terms of negotiating with the US relative to us and China which we expect to be very tough obviously a lot of it will depend on how United Europe can remain Philip we heard Emanuel macron the French President say Trump is going to defend the interests of Americans the question is are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans I mean are Europeans leaders are they ready to do this and and how do they actually go about

trying to do that and and stay United when uh as we've seen it is particularly fractured at this point in time it's a wonderful question and I wish I had an answer I I wish any of the European leaders have an answer because I don't think they really do uh I can see them doing two things uh and you're beginning to see this already there was uh when Trump was elected and he announced that his victory there was a kind of unseemly race among European leaders who could be the first to congratulate him I think

macron got got in a few minutes before Kia starmer in Britain but that I I think is symptomatic of the way they are going to try to um establish personal relations with with Trump um Georgia Malone in Italy uh already has quite a good relationship with him um that is a way that individual European leaders may see of trying to kind of smooth things over and make it a less contentious relationship uh it may be a wish and a prayer because Trump is pretty practical about these things and personal relationships don't matter that much to

him the other thing I think you'll do you were talking just just now we were talking about tariffs and trade war is to Trump hates trade surpluses trade deficits for America surpluses for other countries and of course China is is the the the big Target for that but Europe also so I think we may well see uh moves to try to offer um Trump trump sweeteners on the trade front to stop that relationship the trade relationship getting completely out of out out of order just staying on on on the trade issue and and tariffs I

mean Trump put tariffs on 25% on steel 10% on uh aluminium in 2018 when he was last president so this is a real possibility that he could do something like this uh to Europeans probably not as bad as what he's threatening against China As We Know donica where do you see this this falling and and do you think it's a real threat or is he just going to use that as as a as a threat to try and get what he wants I think he'll try and use it as leverage to get what from his

perspective is a better deal from America because as you said he feels that the current situation is to America's disadvantage but you have to remember that Donald Trump if we look at his first presidency he did promise a lot of things that he didn't deliver I mean where's that wall that was going to be built uh between the United States and Mexico and that Mexico was going to pay for so tariffs might be in that category it's kind of one of those headline policies that sounds revolutionary and big and confrontational but may not actually transpire

for the simple reason that it's a bit like nuclear deterrence I mean there's a lot of countries with nuclear weapons why don't they actually press the button because they know if they press the button they don't have first strike capability they're not going to knock out their opponents their opponents are going to come back and knock them as well it's the same with tariffs you can impose tariffs on uh you know other regimes other countries but they also have the ability to hit you with tariffs as well and that leads to you know a race

to the bottom which is really in nobody's interest so I wouldn't be overly worried right now and as has been said already he may not have decided himself on the exact approach that he's going to take Yeah Yeah Chris with some economists warning of profound economic losses for Europe I mean that potentially the EU GDP Could Fall by half a percentage point and uh cost Germany Germany alone $190 billion over the years of a trump presidency I mean is is that being overly dramatic at this point in time absolutely overly dramatic I think is a

good way to to describe it clearly there will be tough talking which we've all agreed on but also remember Donald Trump is going to be very preoccupied uh at home uh you know he has of course a whole Legacy of legal cases to deal with he he's made some very aggressive and and very strong uh commitments and Promises to the American electorate to deal with immigration to get rid of illegal immigrants and of course to deal with the economy so you know he's only got four years and in reality he probably only has three uh

you know to deal with all of that and therefore you know his ability to to do everything that he has said uh you know of course it's just simply not it's not there it's not going to happen I think he will look for a couple of you know strong victories on the international stage and and here of course we we're talking primarily I guess about Ukraine Russia and and Israel uh Gaza um but really his ability and this the time uh to you know to deal with other issues when he really has to focus on

his domestic agenda uh then I really do think that you know any any extrapolation of of what he said into you know really damaging economics or trade is is is overly dramatic so no I I don't expect that to happen in in that way at all yes and and what he says doesn't necessarily uh mean what he will actually do or what he'll be able to do as we saw in his first four years yeah yes Phillip if we can move on to to the war in Ukraine because obviously that is one of the major

issues that has been dominating over the last few years when it comes to Europe and the Russia us relationship I mean Trump said he could end the the the war in a day without giving any detail as to how he would actually go about doing that I mean obviously it's going to take longer than that but it still stands that he wants to see an into it in some way shape or form how do you see this playing out with Trump as president I think that's one of the few certainties that uh to me there

are two certainties about the Trump uh Trump coming back to Power one is he will try to do something about Ukraine the other is that uh the Europeans are almost certainly going to have to try and uh raise their defense spending because uh the the American defense umbrella is going to look more and more kind of fragile and tattered um I think those two things we can reckon on but on Ukraine yes he'll try but the problem is will zilinski agree and even more so will Putin agree to start some kind of negotiation because in

Putin's mind the Russians are doing rather well you know there is UK Ukraine fatigue setting in in Europe certainly among public opinion uh to a greater extent perhaps than among some of the governments but uh in in definite support of Ukraine I I think is becoming more and more of a mirage and um in those circumstances if you were Putin um would you say well okay I'll settle for less than I really want uh that's going to be a difficulty he TR Trump and Putin will certainly talk but whether Putin will give in easily and

agree to negotiations is another issue the second thing about Ukraine is what would Trump trump try to do will he withdraw support from Ukraine or as Mike Pompeo who's probably going to be his defense secretary has suggested put more pressure on the Russians threatened to increase support um in order to bring Putin to the negotiating table I mean the these are very uncertain and uh all one can be sure of is that there will be an attempt of some kind to bring about a a peace a negotiated settlement well one thing we do know though

is within the United States more and more uh politicians especially Republicans are growing disinterested in giving billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine uh don I mean is this zelinsky's worst case scenario now that with Trump back in power and a Republican Senate and potentially Republicans taking control of the house that they'll just cut off all financial and military aid to Ukraine it certainly the outcome that Vladimir zilinski didn't want despite his uh very kind of uh Cooperative tweets yesterday uh saying that he had an excellent conversation with Donald Trump um it was very

difficult to get the last package of 60 billion plus dollars over the the Congressional line um it's going to be I think n impossible now because Trump has made it clear I think if you can detect a plan uh that he'd like to freeze the conflict more or less where it is and I think when he says he'll have a phone call uh with zinsky and Putin he'll be more or less Comm communicating to zilinski that they will receive no Aid now that of course assumes that uh zilinski will then uh recommend to his people

to stop fighting there's no guarantee there and of course Putin doesn't seem to in that sense Trump is is on the same Pages as Putin that he doesn't give a lot of agency to Ukraine he sees it as a as a pawn in a much bigger geopolitical chess game and you must remember that the first conversation that Donald Trump had with zilinski back in 2019 when zalinski became president was essentially to shake him down uh where he more has dangled uh $400 million of congressional Aid which had been approved over zelinsky's head and said I

won't give it to you uh unless you dig up some dirt on the Biden family so that was a very inos start as is as has been noted elsewhere I mean he has a very transactional view of of relationship so there's no there's no emotion there his view is that this is very much a European conflict it shouldn't be America's responsibility uh to to to fund it or get involved so he's going to try and from his perspective disengage and that means I think a very dis advantageous uh situation for Ukraine yeah Chris obviously we

we know that Trump wants European nations to up their defense spending uh for NATO can they find the money especially in the economic Times that many of these countries find themselves in well with great difficulty he absolutely right because as you say across the board in most European countries uh there are you know severe uh social issues housing issues funding of Social Services uh Health Care education Etc and and pretty much all countries in Europe are dealing with that or some variation on it so it would be extremely difficult for a government to say well

we're going to you know effectively take money away from other other areas of spending kind of more domestic areas in order to build up the military and and sustain sustain the war so with great difficulty I think uh is is is the answer to that if they had to because of I think it as a condition for NATO staying intact then I think governments will and then they will H they will have to do it because NATO is important for Europe uh the self kind of Defense element of it the Article Five the involvement in

the US that is very very important and I think that would override perhaps other considerations but it certainly would be very difficult in in all European countries as we can see at this stage can I just make one point uh we talk about obviously what Trump may do uh one one of his statements and I know he's made of course lots and lots of statements sometimes contradictory but one of his statements does very regularly get repeated in Moscow by officials which is the statement he said about how he would start the process of Peace which

is SEC effectively carison stick he said that he would say to president zilinski you have to start talking or we with we will withdraw support but if you do start talking then we'll help you rebuild but he he also said he would say at the same time to President Putin you have to start talking or we will allow Ukraine have better missiles and longer range missiles and if you do start talking then we'll start to ease sanctions so again as donica say it's the it's this kind of deal making aspect of trump that we've become

used to but that's what Moscow expects uh clearly it would it's something that they would not be opposed to which is freezing the lines where they are right now that would allow President Putin essentially to say that we that Russia has extended its area of of Defense worth it but they are expecting this kind of Carrison stick a forced deal making approach to emerge from Trump that that that would be the angle they they're certainly expecting okay Philip you've written a a very well regarded biography on Vladimir Putin so you probably know him best out

of all of us and how he would react to both the carrot and the stick how do you think that would play out and and can you just give us a bit of an side into his relationship with Donald Trump and how he will deal with him when it comes to the next four years I think Chris is absolutely right it is characteristic um the question is whether Trump will be able to convince Putin um that it is in Russia's interest to to to uh negotiate and agree some kind of not a peace settlement but

at least a ceasefire of freezing of the conflict and um my understanding my view of the relationship between Trump and and Putin is that Putin does not have very much respect for Trump um he will try to flatter Trump he will try to bring him out but above all he will try and get more and more from him he'll try and play him like a fiddle um and uh he's quite good at that kind of thing um Trump Putin um very early on when he was in the KGB um described himself as as a specialist

in human relations and I think that is to some extent one of the things that he's shown during his presidency he is quite good at manipulating those who deal he deals with and Trump in particular uh I there's a a real risk uh he will pull the threads try and get more and more advantages try and get Trump to put more and more pressure on zilinski um so that he gets a much better deal than Trump initially will have had in mind and that has been one of the major criticisms of Donald Trump especially by

democrats that he is basically in the pocket of Putin when it comes uh to Europe donica if we can just finish up we've talked about all the problems that are facing Europe and and what the next four years could look like with a trump presidency I mean are there any Silver Linings though uh for for for Europeans there is one potential Silver Lining and I think macron captured it yesterday when he said that look in terms of geopolitics um the world is divided into herbivores and carnivores those who are eating the the vegetables and those

who are eating the meat and Europe is is is is is a herbivore and uh it risks being devoured by carnivores unless it UPS its game because of the ambiguity of of Trump's position the fact that he he lets nobody take anything for granted including the security guarantee to Europe there is a challenge now to Europe to to come together and and become a player in their own right and and to unite as mrcon said in their own interest the problem is is that of course and this is Europe's problem for for ages is that

Europe is not United internally uh the French government of course is is very weak the German government has just collapsed you have the far right and the populists uh you know nipping at the heels of election time so Europe has yet to unite it has great potential but despite the name European Union we're not quite there yet but who knows I mean you know this this this uncertainty in the world may be maybe the moment that Europe actually does come together because it's the only way it can survive I think in the world that we

live in today yeah there I know the Polish prime minister uh said that they need to finally grow up and believe uh in in its own strength uh and would hopefully help uh jolt Europeans into doing more collectively for their defense and building a stronger European pillar especially when it comes to Nato Chris finally I mean can Europe transform itself into a carnival so it's not devoured I hope so as a European I absolutely hope that uh all of these kind of global events uh in the US and elsewhere will force Europe to get its

act together to be more more coordinated to to to to one day wake up and realize that the European continent is as powerful or can be as powerful as as the us or or China and act accordingly the last couple of years European leaders have spent every day looking over the Atlantic at what's happening in the US and who's going to be next president what it mean for them for goodness sake they should be you know much more self-confident about you know we will deal with whatever happens we need to focus on ourselves and be

more coordinated and make Europe a lot more united and I really hope that events like the you know the the return of Donald Trump uh puts pressure for that to happen for it for it finally to start moving moving forward and to have Europe stop always looking over the Atlantic at what it should be saying and doing well it be fascinating to see if it can indeed uh do that thank you all three of you uh for joining us here on Inside Story we really appreciate your time and your Insight well thank you too for

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