Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support banded if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and jump in so the bull market support band for Bitcoin has continued to rise because the price of Bitcoin is still well above both the 20we estim and the 21

we EMA the 20we ese for Bitcoin is now just above $81,000 the 21 we EMA is just above $84,000 so it essentially ranges from 81 to 84k now the lowest we've really seen Bitcoin go essentially for all of December and at least half of January so far is around that $90,000 Mark so we've seen Bitcoin go as low as just above $90,000 we have of course made the comparisons to last year at this time when Bitcoin also had a move up in October and November and then was relatively flat for a couple of months now

a few weeks ago we talked about this right we said look guys one of the potential pads here that is at least somewhat likely was after you get this move you could easily see Bitcoin go sideways for a month or two and that would be sort of a realistic outcome right that's exactly what happened last year now you will note that last year Bitcoin didn't even make it to its bull market support band before it got another leg higher so it is important to remember that but also it's important to remember that not that it

has to happen again but it did go to the 100 moving average before getting a a bounce right and so the 100 day moving average today is around 86k now I don't know if this is going to happen but in some of the ranges that we've seen you'll set a like sort of an early Wick and then eventually you'll see Bitcoin sweep that Wick right so you set the sort of the range low there and then eventually you sweep it also coincidentally at the 100 day moving average in May of 2024 You could argue that

this is the range low up here at 90k kind of like how you had something similar here at 40K but even back then eventually it went below that range low and I I do wonder you know could you go below the range low and sort of sweep that Wick always a possibility now I do want people to be aware that just because Bitcoin bounced off the 100 day moving average last year doesn't mean that it has to this year right it certainly doesn't mean that it has to and in fact no there's no such thing

as a sure thing in the market right there's always a chance it just breaks below the 100 day moving average but when you're trying to come up with sort of realistic outlooks and whatnot it always was relevant to make the comparison to 2024 January of 2024 now you can also make comparisons to other years and one of the things that we've mentioned is if you actually just look at prior post having Years you'll notice that Bitcoin got 30% Corrections around that January time frame right so um in 2021 Bitcoin dropped around 31% or so um

in 2017 Bitcoin also had a a fairly significant drop I think it dropped around 35% or so and it also found report at the 100 day moving average so that's always a relevant thing to consider we could also talk about you know Market Cycle Theory and left translated versus right translated and obviously there's a lot of discourse right now uh from a lot of people talking about whether the top is in or not the reality is no one knows um but it's always important to sort of keep in mind the most realistic outcomes right and

in the case right in the case where this is a local top for a while it's not going to be obvious for a long time right you know if if instead of this were already sort of repeating this it wouldn't be obvious for a while and um at least I would be my guess um but I I think that one of the things you also have to consider when when just sort of thinking about most likely outcomes in in post having years is you know I think a lot of people just sort of think of

what happen in 2021 but not all post having years get started off like 2021 did right so in 2021 Bitcoin almost immediately went up 27% right and then it dropped and then it went up you know 2X or so within the first 100 days but if you look at 2017 you'll notice that Bitcoin actually sold off initially right it actually sold off fairly early on and it it did rally up about 11% But ultimately it dropped from from the yearly open about 23% now if you overlay 2025 you can see that Bitcoin in 2025 has

actually been holding up a little bit better than it was holding up in 2017 right um but it is interesting to to think about the market in that way if you were to look at 2013 you'll notice that Bitcoin didn't really get that big of a drop down although it didn't really go anywhere the first couple of weeks of January so I also think you know you could you could look at a number of things right you could also look at the cycle Roi from the low and and see that all things considered Bitcoin is

more or less right where it always is around this point in the cycle in fact if you overlay this cycle with the 2016 2017 cycle you can see there was a correction around this time in the 2016 2017 cycle I think the biggest question right that a lot of people have is is you know what does obviously what does the future hold you know I really do wish I had a crystal ball to tell you what I would say is that the best thing you can do is just try to manage your risk appropriately and

and it means having a plan no matter what happens right I use the risk levels and when they're low I buy and when they when they're when they go up pretty high I I start to sell and that way I don't really stress too much about you know where the Market's going to go in the short term because I I recognize that it is somewhat unpredictable the one thing I would say you know going back to bitcoin is that eventually checking in with the 100 day moving average seems like a somewhat likely scenario right whether

it happens today or tomorrow or you know two weeks from now it's hard to say but it seems like a somewhat likely scenario and and one potential outcome is just the 100 day moving average sort of comes up to the price of Bitcoin it seems like that is a likely scenario at some point and if it holds the support and we get another leg higher like last year then great right great but it's also important to remember that the market can throw us curve balls and worst case shortterm Outlook would be to in my view

would be to retest the breakout point right and I don't I don't say that lightly and I I don't really you know and I look at it I'm like does that you know does it really need to happen and and the answer is no but the one re the one reason I I at least put it on your radar is because if you look at at at you know Bitcoin after the election it had this rally right it had you know sort of the rally started right there and it's come all the way up and

and now it's kind of just leveled off for the last couple of months right it really hasn't gone higher and the only reason I mentioned this is because if you actually look at the S&P 500 you'll notice that this is where it was at the election and you can see it's basically returned to back where it was at the election right you see that and if you look at the Russell you can see that this is where it was at the election and now it is returned to below where it was at the election and

so there's two ways to think about that right one way is to say well maybe it means that Bitcoin is also going to make the same move right that's the the sort of the glass half empty approach is that well Bitcoin Isa probably going to make that same move but the Counterpoint is to say Bitcoin you know historically has held up better than the stock market in Bull markets right that it goes up a lot more than the stock market but because it doesn't get those you know intermediate corrections as much as the S&P then

whenever the bare Market does finally hit that's why crypto ends up selling off 70 80% and the stock market you know doesn't normally go down nearly as much right you know sometimes 20% or 30% but you don't often see the S&P dropping you know 50 60% and I you know I mean how often have you ever seen the S&P drop 80% right I mean you'd have to go back maybe even to you know to the Great Depression to see something like that so um I guess that's sort of more optimistic way to look at it

but we've seen that pattern before where you have sort of a a you know a lower high structure that Bitcoin eventually breaks out of and then it sort of immediately tests it as support and then goes higher sometimes you'll see it you know test it again on a more macro scale but the only way that I could see that really happening I guess there's a couple ways if you had inflation coming in really hot or you had the unemployment rate come in a lot higher than people think then it's always possible that something like that

could happen or the other thing is if the 10-year yield continues to Rally for too much longer eventually it could cause Bitcoin to sort of sell off more because last you know in 2023 as we talked about before right when when Bitcoin broke out of the lower high structure right when it broke out of or sorry when the 10e yield broke out of the lower high structure it lasted you know essentially for about 70 days and right now if you make a similar comparison you can see that the the 10year yield has been going up

for about 25 days so if we do have to endure the 10year yield heading higher for a little bit longer then of course that is a headwind for risk assets the reason I mentioned that is if you look at 2023 and you look at Bitcoin well it actually had a very similar move where it had a move up but then eventually it just broke back down to where the initial move up started from you see that and of course it was happening that move back down occurred on the rally of the 10-year yield so if

the you know if Bitcoin does have to kind of return back to where it was uh when the election happened not again I don't I mean I don't say it has to but if it were to return back there then it actually would look somewhat similar to that move there where you kind of you get a move up it goes sideways and then it drops back down and then you wait sort of you see the 10e yield top up there right the 10e yield tops and that's where then Bitcoin went up again because the 10year

yield was topping but you weren't actually in a recession so that is is is kind of a a something to consider here because and I'm watching the 10-year yield pretty closely because I do think it it has you know fairly strong implications for the market so those are my general views right now um before you even have to deal with something like that though even you know you have the 100 day you have um you know just the support structure right you got a lot of different things to to look at but you also have

the bull market support band so if if Bitcoin were to drop back down there it would also imply dropping beneath the bull market support band which is something that it has done this cycle a couple of times but the two times occurred was actually in Q3 of those years right it was Q it was the third quarter of the year not the first or second in fact in both 2023 and 2024 Bitcoin essentially spent all of q1 and Q2 above the bull market support ban and it wasn't until the third quarter that Bitcoin you know

actually fell below it um but yeah I mean you can kind of see a similar structure back over there in 2023 when the 10-year yield you know was was breaking out it it Bitcoin had a move up right it had that move up but then it it basically just you know it set a range low for a little while right but then eventually it fell below it and then eventually it had a larger drop okay so it makes sense obviously to compare the range low here in January 2024 with the one in January of 2025

but I also don't want people to get blinded by that that by that single outcome because there was an example in 2023 around the same time that the 10-year yield broke out which is exactly what's happening right now where it actually eventually got just below the range low and then it fell below the bull market support band back to where it previously took off from you see that back to where it took off from and then it found support there for a little while and then it moved up again so that's another way to think

about the market right and again it doesn't have to be one of those things where you have to guess necessarily I would say if you get a quick move down by Bitcoin to the 100 day moving average and then it bounces strongly off that it would imply that this is the more relevant analog if on the other hand Bitcoin slowly drops below it and then just kind of stays just below the range low like that kind of like it did right there then the implication is that it looks more like 2023 where then it could

get that drop back down maybe find support there and then figure out the next move okay so that I think is what you should be looking at with the market right now to try to figure out the most likely scenarios in the short term if you guys like the content again make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on into the Crypt premium at inth crypto.com I'll see you guys next time bye