The EXACT Date You Should Go ALL IN on Altcoins! [SO SOON]

[Music] so we have Bitcoin at over $100,000 and more importantly we have Bitcoin up 147% year to date and a lot of people are asking after such an aggressive move in Bitcoin when will this bull market actually end are we still in a 4-year cycle will we peak in April like we did in 2021 will we peak in November next year will the cycle be longer and then there's other people asking about old Season and whether this what we're experiencing now is actually old season or whether the real old season is to come and if

the real old season is still to come well when is it going to arrive and how low will the Bitcoin dominance actually go that's what everybody's asking so today I've got a very special treat for you guys I've got a guy who called the cycle absolutely perfectly some of you know him his name is Ben Khan and when Bitcoin dominance was Sitting over here at 40% he famously tweeted on the 11th of May 2022 he said Bitcoin will Bitcoin dominance will go back up to 60% he kept repeating his thesis he got a lot of

hate and uh as we see today Bitcoin topped at 60% and actually started coming down and today we' got Ben on our show to answer all the questions how long will this bull market be how high are we actually going to go and when is all season going to start should be a big show you're going To enjoy this one let's go guys wakey wakey rise and shine it's another beautiful beautiful beautiful bull market day I mean we do have Bitcoin over $100,000 uh the altcoins looking good I mean we had a very very good

day yesterday so I think the altcoins have start slightly calmed down but in general if you look at the week that we've had and the month that we've had we've had a fantastic week big question Obviously is is this actually old season or is old season yet to come and there are of course two views there uh the one view is that we're going to get a a dip and then another Spike up and then the other VI is that we actually going to carry on going down from you that's one of the things that

we actually going to resolve today with Ben so it's going to be a big show before we get into the show I do want to remind you that we are all going to make a lot of money in the Cycle that's just a reminder that I wanted to give you guys I hope you guys are okay with that reminder no no no no jokes so we are going to all make a lot of money in the in the cycle that I'm almost willing to guarantee if you just if you just keep a calm head about

yourself you do the research you follow the right people you probably make money because it's a bull market and the bull market actually lifts everyone but the question is how many you will actually Keep your money now a lot of you are going to make a mistake by selling too late you're not going to keep your money some of you are going to get are going to make other mistakes the one mistake that you can't make is getting hacked and the other mistake that you can't M make is exposing to your governments where you're trading

from and letting and letting the government take the Lion Share of your profit you can't do that if you want to avoid that get yourself a VPN I'm going to show you quickly what a VPN does so what you do is you click here and you click on the Nord ban on on the link below the one that says nordvpn and you get a VPN and the VPN allows you you to to Surf without actually exposing your IP address a lot of you a lot of you don't know what this actually means so I'm going

to show you what this actually means um so let's have a look at this this is what a VPN looks like right now you can see I'm not connected But if I click on any one of these countries then people will think that I am in Albania and now right now the the system or the internet thinks that I'm in Albania now the Nord has a double feature a double VPN so then authorities really really really can't track where you are and they can't actually track your wallet guys it is the cheapest cheapest cheapest way

to protect your crypto it cost I think less than $3 a month or $3 A month and not only that you should probably take out the the the nor threat protect and the reason why you should take out the threat protection is because this is what stops those malicious websites that are designed to actually get you to put your private keys in and steal all your money and the threat protects actually done that so listen if you're serious about your crypto $10 a month less less than $10 a month to make sure you're safe please

do It and please don't delay please do it today this morning we had a scar that maybe gate was hacked maybe some people went the wrong exchange guys don't it's not worth it just do it and do it today don't delay please don't delday just go and do it today all right let's go let's start the show as I mentioned to you our next guest is someone who has called this Market spot on and I know that there's not many people that have called this Market spot on but our next guest Actually did do that

I want to just show you something so uh this is a tweet from Ben which says Bitcoin will remind you why it's it's the king Alt Verse Bitcoin valuations are in for Reckoning the story has been told in the past and it's it's the same again see at 60% Bitcoin dominance now that tweet was on the 11th of May 2022 let's we can go look at where dominance was on the 11th of May 2022 so this is the 11th of May 2022 at the time the Bitcoin dominance was at 41% and that's when Ben tweeted

that Bitcoin dominance will see will see you at 60 and he held this conviction despite what everybody said he held this conviction and we just just just touched 60 and now I think how now now I think everybody wants to know what Bitcoin dominance is going to do next so here we're going to bring in Ben Ben how are you sir pretty good how about you man it must feel so amazing having called the Cycle so perfectly I mean you must have first of all you must have taken a lot of abuse I think if

I remember correctly I was one of the abusers right you you I think you flipped bullish on bitcoin Dom a while back though I did I did I did I saw the light I Saw The Light um saw the light I mean why why were you so confident just let's let's start at at the beginning and say why were you so confident when Bitcoin dominance was was so strong and and Bitcoin was was I mean I mean Bitcoin Dom was at 41% why were you so confident that we were going back to 60 you know

there's a couple of reasons I mean one of the reasons is basically just like looking at this chart uh the Bitcoin dominance chart I was looking at this thing and you know if you if you remember back in in 2021 we had all this money printing right from the pandemic we had so many VCS we had all these meme coins and I was so perplexed that Despite all of that dominance didn't really go below the prior cycle low of 35% right and I think a lot of people thought we would go below 35% last cycle

and had you asked me back in 2020 I would have also thought dominance would have gone below 35% but once we got to the end of 2021 and it was still at 39% I then sort of came to this realization that you know what if it's just putting in higher lows but also potentially putting in lower highs right and so Maybe the path for Bitcoin dominance is something like this where it's kind of converging you know to whatever the fair value of of dominance is right maybe it's 50% I don't know um but that was

sort of the the the the thought process and then the other thing was if you look at dominance in 2021 you can see that it really started to break down right here at this weekly candle March 29th of 2021 and so I just sort of assumed well there's a good chance that dominance Will return back to where it it sort of started this sort of altcoin bubble against Bitcoin and so that's what basically happened we saw dominance basically returned back there at 60% and then the final reason which wasn't a reason when I first made

that tweet but it was something that I found later and I used it as confirmation bias was was the last cycle dominance retraced to the 618 FIB level and that happened to line up with you know right around 60% Dominance so those are the reasons uh I think Bitcoin dominance we're going to go back to 60% and also too I mean the the the argument is that Bitcoin is King you know and and when a lot of people join the cryptoverse they join only wanting to buy altcoins because when they joined at the peak of

a parabolic bull run Bitcoin had already made its move so when they joined they never saw a Bitcoin move because they joined after the parabolic run was over and they Started chasing the altcoins but when you get into the bare Market Bitcoin dominance goes up and usually the first year or two of the bull market Bitcoin dominance goes up do you think that bitcoin's already made its run this time around so in other words I mean we've had a very very good year on bitcoin we're now over $100,000 like do you think that the the

majority of the acceleration in the Bitcoin run has happened and the reason why I asked that Is because I know naturally you would say yes it I mean you'd say yes it is the the dominance has started to break down this could be the beginning of old season but you know you've got a a United States President that's coming in and talking about potentially a strategic Bitcoin Reserve you've got ETFs which have which have like an insatiable demand for Bitcoin if if I look at the the ETF flows for the last couple of days uh

I'll call them up First onto the screen over here so um if I look at the ETF flows the ETF flows are like highly highly highly positive with like half a billion dollar days and sometimes even $750 million days uh these are like $750 million these are big big big uh inflows into Bitcoin so do you think that the Bitcoin acceleration cycle is now topped out or do you think that there's there's still a way to go do are you talking about it Specifically through the lens of Bitcoin dominance or just Bitcoin USD just Bitcoin

USD and we'll talk about Bitcoin dominance in a second but yeah Bitcoin USD do you think that there's still huge upside to go so here here's a good chart I mean this is the RO Bitcoin as measured from the low and it always feels like every Cycle's different even even this cycle it always feels like it's different you know um but then you look at at the ROI Of Bitcoin so far this cycle as measured from the low and that's this purple line it's basically right in between the last two cycles right I mean at

this point last cycle the ROI of Bitcoin from the low was about 10 X and two cycles ago the ROI was almost 6X and right now we're at basically 6 and a2x so we're essentially where we always are I think the argument though is that if you look at all Market Cycles there is some element of diminishing returns from one Cycle to another that's not a knock on bitcoin it's just that as the market cap grows it takes you know exponentially more and more money to continue to move the price it's sort of just a

natural progression of things and so so you know with Bitcoin already being up 6X off the low you know H how far did it go last cycle right well last cycle it went up about 20x from the bottom um and if you were to assume diminishing returns then you would assume that it probably won't Go up 20x this cycle so I I would say that you know certainly uh a large amount of the easy gains on bitcoin are gone the easy gains of course they uh of course occur when Bitcoin dominance is going up right

that's the easy time because it's just like you know stick with Bitcoin most alts will bleed to it and and and let it run its course but after Bitcoin dominance you know really starts to top out it Things become a lot less clear and the reason is because the Money that was primarily focused on going into Bitcoin it's still there but people will start to speculate on other parts of the market right sort of the the frothier parts of the market um you know the the lower market cap alt coins and that's what normally leads

to alt season right which everyone you know loves um and ALT season is a good thing and a bad thing right it's good because you can make a lot of money in a really short period of time it's bad because Normally alt season eventually leads to bitcoin getting a correction and reminding us that it is in fact King so I I would argue that from this point on um the easy the easy move by Bitcoin right where dominance goes up with it is is probably behind us it doesn't mean it can't go higher it just

means you might see Market participants start to speculate on on other things more based on the B based on the previous cycles that you've looked at um where do you Think this this cycle ends and when and at what price do you think Bitcoin will be and I'm going to hold you to a price but I'm just trying to understand like you seem to be comparing it back to previous Cycles all the time and and and if we were to follow previous Cycles taking into account diminishing returns how do you you see the cycle playing

out how long would it last and where will we land up towards the end yeah so I I guess the easy thing to Do is just to look at when all prior Cycles have ended um and that's sort of the the sort of the Baseline assumption I I suppose but there's also counterpoints to that that I think we should all be aware of uh everyone should know that all prior Bitcoin Cycles at least the last three they topped in in in yeah either November or December of of post having years right this was nov of

2021 this was December of 2017 and this is November of 2013 Right so they all topped in Q4 of the post having year which would be about you know 11 to 12 months from now can I just uh yeah can I just stop you there for one sec so in 2021 there was the May top which was about 5% lower than the uh November top right so I think Bitcoin was at about 65,000 that seemed to be an anomaly from the previous just two cycles what do you think that anomaly how do you how do

you cuz the reason I ask is because when I looked at the 2021 Cycle I kind of said maybe the top was actually kind of in May and the reason why I said that was maybe it wasn't the top top of the chart but in terms of a risk reward you had to hold through 60 days a negative 60% move just to get an extra 5% uh in November which you know to me it almost said look the top of the cycle was actually may and there was like a pseudo top which happened afterwards but

the risk reward for holding to that that next top wasn't Actually worth it right no I think that's a fair assumption in fact I mean most most charts most indicators said that April was the top right I mean if you go look at um if you go there's so many there's actually a lot of different things you can look at for that right if you go look at at the social interest in crypto yes back then this the social risk I mean it topped out in in in May right exactly when you said right that

was When retail interest peaked and everything after that was a lower high if you look at at the uh the P Cycle top right I mean the P Cycle top triggered in April uh back then right so a lot of thing and even even the risk metric that I use right if you go look at the risk metric that I used to buy and sell Bitcoin it also topped in you know early 2021 so I think you're absolutely right I mean I I I think there was sort of an anomaly there um And so you

could argue that last cycle topped in in April which brings me to my next point right I mean look I think it's the the there's sort of right translated cycles and left translated cycles and we've been we've seen three fouryear Cycles so far and all of them have been right translated where you know you have a Peak at the end or you know sort of near the end of the cycle there are left translated cycles that a lot of people have have talked about and It's possible that we're in one basically a left translated cycle

means that tops out the market tops out a lot sooner than people are expecting and I wouldn't be completely surprised if something like that were to happen um where it kind of tops out like way before people actually think it's going to but you know at this point there's a lot of the major indicators that you would look at to sort of try to identify Market cycle tops they haven't yet Triggered yet I mean even even this rist metric one of the reasons why I didn't think 73k was the top was because we only went

to say like the 7 point8 risk bin we also didn't see the P Cycle top go off just for if you go look for those viewers who don't know what a risk metric is just what are you measuring with this red with the with the red line what is the the risk metric it it's basically just looking at um sorry it's basically just looking at Historical returns of Bitcoin and factoring in you know its prior volatility and looking at diminishing returns and trying to figure out where the next Top's going to be um so historically

major tops if we color code it by the risk right so so historically major tops occur you know in the 08 to1 wristbands right and so you can see right there June of 2011 April 2013 November 2013 December 2017 you know early 2021 we haven't gone up to that Risk ban yet so that would suggest that we could still go higher um but you know there's always here's the thing no one knows when the Top's going to occur and I I mean you were you were here back in April 2021 I don't think any of

us had the faintest clue when Bitcoin was trading at 15K you know just a few months earlier that we would be pushing 70k you know by April of 2021 no one knew it was going to go that quickly it's more so when it happens you have to Be ready to react right no one knows when it's going to actually happen yeah I mean I think that the risk indicator the social indicators certainly don't indicate that we're anywhere anywhere near a top but things can happen pretty quickly right like things can happen retail can back pretty

quickly uh old season can happen pretty quickly um and so like in my calculations I've kind of said look it's for me I'm kind of saying that it's going to be somewhere between April and November and and in terms of like a a risk exit strategy I kind of want to be exiting risk sometime between April and November based on on all the other indicators what indicators would you look at to Mark the top so like just maybe just one or two or three indicators that you'd say look when these indicators do this this and

this to me that indicates that we're probably nearing a To I would look towards social interest right I mean right now it's it's basically right around three risk kind of funny in late 2020 in December 2020 it was also right around this level right the the social interest was basically the same as it is today four years later um I would look at at the the Bitcoin risk metric that I just showed you I would also look at at sort of the extension from the fair value so this is the uh this is the total

crypto Market cap and trend line This is the entire asset class and just sort of seeing the extension above the fair value you can look at it here and and sort of see how eventually it tends to extend beyond the fair value a decent amount I would be looking at that I also think there's there's some sort of like more silly indicators that you could look at just like you know the RSI which is not you know I don't really use the RSI to trade but I I try to use it to Tell me when

the market is getting somewhat heated and you know if you look at um if you look at the relative strength index on the monthly you know I mean you can basically tell like you know when you're nearing and this is another indicator by the way that said would have told you that may 2021 was a more significant top so I would look at that kind of stuff um and and actually if you go look at the RSI on the two we you can see that one of the reasons why It was more obvious that March

of 2024 was sort of the midcycle top was because you know basically had hit this trend line once again and you you have to wonder and here's the thing um Rand that I I I wonder I want to point out to people and I don't know if it's going to play out like this or not but look base base case probably should be exactly what you said right sometime between April and November that seems to make the most amount of sense the only thing I would say is in you know if you look at the

two-e RSI you know in 2013 we sort of had an early top in April and then another top in Q4 and there's just like if this continues to accelerate and tags this trend line at some point in the next few months like there's a chance that could be it right whenever that occurs right whether it occurs in April or March or or June or July right that that could be it there's one thing I I'd like to draw your attention to Just really really quick because I I I found a lot of similarities with it

this year and it actually went to help figure out like you know the market might actually just kind of do nothing for six months if you look at the launch of the QQQ back in 1999 it launched at 48 and remember the the the price of Bitcoin when bitcoin's ETF launched was 48k right we saw a surge to 48k when that ETF launched and Essentially what happened when the QQQ launched at around 48 it took exactly let me switch this over to a weekly time frame it took exactly 48 weeks to pass a 100 right

so it took 48 weeks to pass 100 and it was right here right it finally passed that 100 Milestone um I believe no it was it was right here it was the following week right so it was 40 yeah 48 weeks I got it one one week too short 48 weeks to past 100 Bitcoin I know this sounds crazy uh but but Bitcoin just passed 100 and it and it happened 47 weeks after the ETF launch right so let's just take a look at this for one second it's probably not going to play out the

same way but just so everyone's aware because you know the Market's going to throw us a curveball next year I think it's going to throw us a curveball um here's the crazy thing is that after it passed a 100 the QQQ got a pullback back down to say like in the mid90s we just saw Bitcoin got its Pullback back down into the 90s and then it went all the way up to 120 120 so I'm curious if maybe that's the next stop for Bitcoin is to sort of see a move up to 120 and what's

really fascinating is that it it hit that top 54 weeks after the ETF launch right 54 weeks and and what sometimes makes me wonder if we are in you're giving me goosebumps man you're giving me goosebumps I'm in the ETF launch was was was January I know I know I know but listen to this listen to this if if this is not this is not my base case my base case is like probably what you said right April to November but again I I I think as an investor we have to to look at all

possible outcomes no matter what right we always have to look at all possible outcomes and what's really interesting is that is that 54 weeks after the ETF launched happens to be inauguration day for for the president um January 20th Also the day that that Gary giner is resigning so here's the thing I I think what's likely going to happen is you know Bitcoin will continue to do its thing for at least a few more weeks my guess is there's going to be some type of a pullback in January or February but the reason I say

January is because you're going to get the inauguration and then everyone's going to want to ask themselves all right do we actually get a strategic Bitcoin Reserve right is it All talk or is it actually going to happen if it happens then we should have no problem going higher right throughout 2025 if it doesn't happen you you probably could see a large correction but here's the thing regardless of whether it happens or not there's probably going to be a brief der ring period sometime in January and it's not unique to this cycle right that's going

to be the narrative for this cycle oh it's will the Strategic Reserve actually Happened but what I think is more important is if you look back at prior Cycles there's usually a correction in January right here's the correction in January 2017 Bitcoin dropped about 30 to 40% and we got a 30 to 40% correction in January of 2021 um so I'm sort of thinking that you might see Bitcoin do something similar right where accelerates into the ETF launch right it accelerates into uh inauguration day and then there's a a drisking period on the Other side

of that and if you get if you actually get the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve then again you should have no problem going higher later on in the year um because you know what the QQQ did was it it basically went all the way up to 120 and then it had a flash crash down to 60 yeah yeah and then but then here's the thing no one would have known the bull market was over back then a year later right I mean the market still then put in higher lows for another Three quarters before it started to

go down so you could even argue that if something like this were to happen this might be a pretty big alt season you know because you know bitcoin's already topped out and altcoins are running like that could be a time for maybe ethereum uh to do really well um but again this isn't the base case it shouldn't be I think what should be is is just sort of deferring to sort of seasonality hisor IAL Roi of Bitcoin but one one really Interesting thing if you measure Roi of Bitcoin Peak to Peak you can see that

we're actually tracking you know pretty well but one of the things you said earlier right what if you take April as the Top If you take April as the top from the last cycle and you compare it to the 2016 cycle right it looks like if you compare to the 2016 cycle we're ahead of schedule right it looks like we're a little bit ahead but if you take April as the top it looks like we're a Lot further along right and it it kind of matches up a lot better so if this is the case

we're currently on day 1338 and the cycle ended on day 1473 which would be about four months from now right four to five months from now so like I I think what you said makes a lot of sense I mean I think you got to be aware sometime between April and November is the most likely outcome but also be prepared for the market to throw us a curveball so with that in Mind where do you think the Bitcoin ends in terms of of a number and again I'm not going to hold you to a number

because none of us are here to make price predictions so to speak I'm just you know I want to just maybe narrow it down to you diminishing returns uh as you mentioned it's a lot it's a lot heavier now the asset is a lot heavier but we do have a lot more inflows if you were to speculate based solely on previous Cycles where would you put the Top of the cycle so yeah based on prior Cycles if you expect diminishing returns so uh last cycle we saw you know like a um a little over a

20x like a 23x cycle before that was 100x so um I mean certainly hitting 100K was you know main objective this cycle as far as how much Above It Go how much above it it does it go the QQQ went to 120 um Bitcoin let's see if it so 15 it bottomed at 15K so a 10x would be a 150 10x would still be Diminishing returns right it would still technically be diminishing returns um I will say I I I do disagree with the there are some views out there that that people say it's going

to go to a million this cycle I don't think that's going to happen I don't really think there's any chance of that happening I also don't really think it's going to go to 3 either um my guess my best guess is that the top is somewhere between 1 to 200 is my best guess I don't think it's going To go above 200 again you know I hope you don't hold me to that because obviously things can change but um best guess is somewhere between 1 to 200 and I would I would be surprised if it

if it made it all if it's gonna go to 200 it's probably not going to happen until a year from now right until a full year I mean it would it would be a while in fact if you look at at what Bitcoin has historically done um every single time it sort of built out a base like look at This it just it just keeps 2 Xing right this was 15K then it went from 15 to 30 then 30 to 60 and then 60 maybe to 120 which is exactly yeah which is exactly where the

QQQ topped out right at 120 so if if it's a left translated cycle and and 120 is the top again you're not going to know it until until October of 2025 because it'll basically be all right October is here this is normally the time that Bitcoin starts to go up right we saw it go up in 2023 October 2024 October a lot of people will be expecting the same thing October 2025 so if if it does end before the end of the year you're not going to people aren't going to know it until then okay

do do you think how long do you think we can keep relying on the fouryear cycle for like it just surely like is it is it all around the Haring is this whole Bitcoin movement actually around the fact that the mining rewards Harve reason I ask is because more and more the amount of Bitcoin that's coming out of the ground coming out of the mining machines are becoming less and less relevant in relative to the Supply right because 19 plus million have already been have already been mined like surely at some point the slow Supply

doesn't matter and the demand has just become so much so do you think that the fouryear cycle is something that we just going to carry on talking about until 2150 or whenever whenever the the fouryear cycle Ends I think the fouryear cycle has a lot of Merit I think it's mostly probably based around like elections and stuff because you know there's like the four year every four years in the United States we have you know these these elections and whatnot but I I think the the timing of the peak with they each four year cycle

could be different right so there's a good chance you will find you know a major low approximately every four years I mean even if you go back And look at the stock market in the 1970s it basically had lows almost every you know basically every four years and it always it essentially always happened in the midterm year right in the Year to you know sort of in between presidential elections when the president isn't going to be that concerned about you know as as concerned about public opinion because you know there two years after their the

election and just got them elected and they're still two years out From the next election um so I I I would say that um a good chance that the yeah I I think I think there's a good chance the four-year cycle will likely continue to Prevail but my guess is that the the timing of the Peaks within each fouryear cycle could change and I think we got a glimpse of that last cycle when as you noted right we the top was in April and then it just barely went higher six months later right what if

happens you know what if you get a top early on Again maybe like what you said like in April and then everyone's expecting it to go higher in November but then what you know maybe it's just a lower high or something right so I I think the the actual tops could occur at different points in the cycle but the lows for each cycle could very well just simply correspond to every every midterm year let's go back to the Bitcoin dominance chart on your screen when you showed it if you just don't mind putting it back

There um so when you showed the Bitcoin chart it looked like there was a wedge with higher highs and higher lows and lower highs on the Bitcoin dominance right and effectively when you think about Bitcoin dominance you think about the relevance of Bitcoin as a total as a Godfather of the asset class right and what this chart is saying is that in 2018 the relevance of altcoins was the best relative to bitcoin which means that the promise that that altcoins held To to change the the blockchain world was the highest less so in 2021 are

you forecasting that this this cycle the dominance will actually end not as like on a higher on a higher low yeah I mean but the thing is is like if you had said that if you had asked me that same question four years ago I would have said no like I would have said it would probably go to a lower low but I also think that you kind of have to respect the market and the market Basically said you can print as many altcoins as you want it doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin dominance is going to

put in a lower low right there's still you know the the amount of capital going into the altcoins isn't going to change just because you print 10,000 more meme coins right it's it's just every it just gets diluted so I would argue that yeah like it's probably going to be a higher low I would expect that you know it depends on when it Happens I mean if dominance just goes down now then maybe it bottoms out at like 42 43% if it doesn't happen until say January of 2026 or something you know maybe it'll be

44 45 46% right it all it all depends on when it actually happens and there's also this idea I think that a lot of people are looking at is you know are we here right are we right here where where dominance is starting to really break down or are we somewhere else where you know we get up To a high but then we don't actually get this big move down immediately right it's always possible that that move down that we want is still a month or two away or maybe six months away right there's no

guarantee that that this is the moment that you're actually going to see dominance go all the way back down and a lot of it will depend on what Bitcoin does right if Bitcoin starts to go up again aggressively like it did last year around this time uh then you Know Bitcoin dominance could go back up again that doesn't mean it has to go to a new cycle high but it could continue to sort of delay you know the alt season that that that people really want to see so if you were to put your down

to put your money where your mouth is would you say that old season started or would you say that that it's not old season yet I think that look I mean there's no denying that we've at least experienced a mini all season because I mean look if You go if you go look at at the altseason index right let's just go look at the data you can see that it it it basically just had a spike all the way up to you know into the 80s right which historically this is that that is representative of

of all season but there's difference between sort of a quick Spike there like because there was also a spike into alt season here in August of 2022 but it only stayed there for a few weeks because then Bitcoin Just started going up again and and then altseason was just delayed once more you know again whenever Bitcoin moves aggressively the altcoin market takes a backseat because no one wants to miss the Run by the King right no one wants to feel like they're getting left behind when Bitcoin goes up when altcoins go up you know there's

a thousand of them right so take your pick but when Bitcoin goes up it basically just leaves everything behind so I I think for sure We just you know we just had a a mini alt season it could still be ongoing in order to get a real alt season right the one that people remember from 2021 eth eth has to join the party right I was I was about to ask I was about to ask before you before you count is eth the the um the the uh old season indicator or is it because yeah

because you do have salana the cycle as well like is eth still the big daddy altcoin or I don't know just it feels like eth May have been slightly Left Behind the cycle so but it normally does this I mean and in fact if you look at eth Bitcoin in 2016 it was also dropping right here right it was it bottomed out in December of 2016 you can see it just kind of went down in Q4 even in 2019 eth Bitcoin bottomed in December that's December 2019 here this is December 2020 January 2021 this right

here December 2017 this is December 2018 this is December 2015 Right every single time that you know you get into Q4 eth Bitcoin tends to underperform right eth underperforms Bitcoin historically in Q4 but then it normally bottoms out in either December or January so it could have already bot it's possible that e Bitcoin has already bottomed if it hasn't bottomed then you probably just get a sweep of the prior low kind of like what you did in 2020 like if you look at 2020 e Bitcoin had sort of a little bit of a bounce right

Here in November into early December and then it sold off one last time into late December early January right so there's a chance that eth Bitcoin gets another sell off but I I think the low is either in or it's really close to being in you want to know a fascinating chart by the way is not the eth Bitcoin chart it's the eth micro strategy chart right and I look at this chart and I can't help but think that there's a good chance that will outperform micro strategy next year Um outperform micro strategy next year

look I mean look at the chart I mean I I could be wrong um but look micro strategy has done phenomenally well right I mean it's done amazingly well and I'm not saying it can't continue to do well but there's also this reality that as as the labor market continues to loosen up right as the unemployment rate continues to Trend higher the the FED they're going to lower interest rates which they are and They're going to start up QE which means the higher Mark the higher below the higher risk coins will start to outform the

lower risk coins uh that's at least what we've historically seen so yeah I would say like there's a good chance that a year from now or let's say like by by January of 2026 when we look back I think the eth micro strategy valuation will likely be higher than it is today a lot higher what do you think of the micro strategy what do you think of Micro strategy valuation I mean when you look at micro strategy as an equity do you think that mic strategy is extended you think it's it's it's uh it's it's

it's healthy it is extended but I mean that is a you know assets can become more extended right I mean just to just to put in perspective how how how much it's gone up if you look at Bitcoin from where it went from 2021 it it essentially just retraced to the one It's now at the 1.618 FIB retracement level if you look at the same thing for micro strategy right just to give you an idea of how much micro strategy has outperformed Bitcoin from the 2021 top it went to the 4.236 retrac wow it yeah

again that doesn't mean it can't continue to go up what the the thing I find a lot of times with with you know assets like this where they've just gone parabolic is basically everyone who's held them for the last two years cannot See a bubble and everyone that has not held them only sees a bubble right because everyone's sort of biased into believing like it's going to go in the direction they want it to go um I don't know exactly how much higher it's going to go there's a couple different ways you could look at

the micro strategy evaluation one way is to basically look at it compared to speaking of the QQQ right looking at it compared to what it did over here in the.com Era and seeing It it also had a major spike but that's sort of the beest way to look at it there there's a there's a more optimistic way to look at it and that's to look at micro strategy divided by M2 if you look at micro strategy divided by M2 you can see that actually back in the era it actually went quite a bit higher yeah

and in fact it also had a pullback around this point right where it it it basically rallied up here so if you just look across the screen let's Just draw those lines you can see that it had this rally right there to the exact same point that it just rallied to and then it had a pullback you know basically just to where it had a pullback to and then after that after that pullback it then had another rally this was in January that lasted two months right it lasted two more months and then you know

all hell broke loose right um but it's important to remember what happened in the past so that we Don't make the same you know the same mistakes but look micro strategy done phenomenally well sailor's done more for Bitcoin than you know almost anyone else I can think of um but at times assets do get overvalued and they do come back down to earth at some point look I agree with you that Sor done a lot for Bitcoin and I think I mean you know I've been thinking about what he's actually done but he's actually created

a path for all the fixed income money that's in the World and that's $ 6 and a half trillion dollar or whatever else to be to have a Gateway into Bitcoin which is like that's a a piece of incredible engineering but does it not worry you that one one entity is is one entity not even one asset class but one entity is now 2.2 2.3% of all the Bitcoin uh that will ever be mined and and you know I I I just feel a little bit uncomfortable that when I looked at the buying pressure on

bitcoin I mean sailors Bought $17 billion worth of bitcoin in 38 days or something like isn't that you know it worries me when markets are not healthy when markets are not Diversified and when there's one player uh responsible for lots of the upward pressure then I kind of get a little bit nervous you know even though it looks like it can continue forever it will continue until the Music Stops I mean are you comfortable with with the with the market structure Well that's why I'm saying that's why I think uh that's why I think dominance

normally go so normally dominance goes down Bitcoin dominance normally goes down in post having years and I I think that could be a reason why you see dominance not be as strong in 2025 um because you might see you know micro strategy has been a Tailwind for Bitcoin for the last two years right I mean it just keeps on buying and and and and that's been a really good thing I Could see micro strategy becoming a headwin for Bitcoin where some people start to like look at this chart and like well you know how much

higher could it go before it becomes a problem and and then you're going to look around and you're going to see well you know there's a lot of other altcoins and they don't have that same risk which is probably one of the narratives as to why dominance might go down in in 2025 so look I don't know exactly where it's Going to stop I don't know exactly when the music's going to stop but whenever it does stop obviously there is you know there that that is a concern right there is a concern by the way

I I wanted to can I can I mention something about salana really quick I was I was about to actually ask you and maybe this will give some context when we last spoke and I said to you what do you actually do when you believe that the Bitcoin dominance is going to start dropping and You said to me well I just go a little bit more into eth is that still your thesis or do you sometimes go even lower down like into things like salana and and maybe some other things yeah know eth is just

the obvious one eth is the obvious one to start out but I mean even even xrp right I mean like that was an obvious and I I'll show you what I'm looking at so like look at look at Salon of Bitcoin um so this was a chart and I I'll just you know you Said I got a lot of things right this cycle there's also a lot of things I got wrong and one of the things I got wrong was the sole Bitcoin chart so so because back in late 2022 early 2023 I wasn't really

on the lookout for double bottoms on alt Bitcoin pairs because Bitcoin dominance was still so low I didn't really care I'm like dominance is going to go to 60% I'm not going to waste my time but what you look for with alts you look for These double bottoms right because when they occur you normally get a very explosive move by that altcoin and and that's exactly what happened with salana now if you and I'm going to come back to salana in a minute if you look at xrp Bitcoin this is something that you know I

was talking about a lot um over on on on my stuff because I was looking at this I'm like look guys this is a double Bottom by xrp Bitcoin there's a good chance it's going to get a really nice Rally we've seen this setup before where it gets these double bottoms gets really nice rallies off of it so that's what you look for you can see the same thing like a Bitcoin is doing really well today and it has been for a little while and it was also sort of identifying these double bottom setups so

it's not just eth it's just that you look for double bottoms on all Bitcoin pairs there's one that's potentially setting up right now I don't know if it's Actually going to play out or not but if you look at B&B Bitcoin wow I'm curious I'm C I'm curious if by the end of the year early next year you see a a double bottom on it right because you can see last year it bottomed out in December um it's not that far away from a potential double bottom uh so that's something to consider you could also

make the case that this is the double bottom right it's just sort of a higher a higher low double bottom avac Bitcoin had something Like that as well uh where it it basically you know there was this low but then it had sort of a double bottom just off of that low and then it got a little rally so you have to keep that in mind as well but one of the things I wanted to to to mention to people uh as far as salana is concerned is you know a lot of these coins follow

this pattern and I want to show this really interesting pattern by salana is that it actually looks really this is e yeah but Is it because if you look at this it's following the same pattern so far like look at eth Bitcoin this was a 90% drop right a 90% drop followed by a 500% rally right and after that 500% rally eth Bitcoin got this drop right here and then and and this drop was essentially it was putting in higher lows right it was putting in higher lows everyone was calling for the flipping and then

it it got a drop and then it had one more rally into the merge and then this is What happened right now think about that chart 90% down 500% up higher lows fake out one last rally and then down look at salana Bitcoin it's the same thing I mean it's it's it's identical look at this this is exactly a 90% drop a 500% rally you're putting in you're you're putting in the higher lows it might it might be starting to show a little bit of weakness here if it breaks down it doesn't mean it's over

right you could have a scenario where it repeats what Eth Bitcoin did where it sort of and you can see it already started to break down a little bit right here if it breaks down people might think that's the end right but it could very well just pop right back up here in 2025 exactly what eth Bitcoin did and then start to fade you know out in 2026 so there is a chance that something like that happens so you know for people are curious like what's Soul doing like why is it not going up with

the rest of the market This could be this pattern it's sort of the same pain that the eth holders have felt for the last couple of years right where like they get this massive rally they get this massive rally and then it kind of stalls out for a while you see I'm uncomfortable I'm uncomfortable in my seat because I'm a salana holder and you're making this you're making this uh but remember this is this is sole Bitcoin not sole USD right so you could I mean you could have A scenario where so Bitcoin goes down

but Soul USD goes up right so it's not and by the way I mean if this plays out there would still be another rally by so Bitcoin but it just wouldn't be until 2025 um so so question question how does Ben trade This and like I mean I know how how I would trade this I'm a lot more gangho than you I have I think I have a much higher risk tolerance than you I'm not I'm not as conservative how do you trade this and specifically I Mean to I'm asking two things one is in

these periods where you think it's old season and you show me charts like the xrp chart and you show me charts like the eth chart does that mean that you cash out your Bitcoin and actually go into things like using Bitcoin go into xrp and eth number one number two at the end of the cycle when we say it's the end of the cycle does that mean that you actually trade out of your Bitcoin and go back into Fiat um while while you Wait for the Bitcoin us dpay to actually play out so the way

I do it is until until the risk metric until we go to what I think is a market cycle top whenever I take profits from altcoins I just put them back in Bitcoin because my unit of account is Bitcoin right I think in terms of Satoshi right if I if you go and buy a car do you think like oh that cost you know $50,000 or whatever or do you think it oh crap it cost half a Bitcoin right so you know my unit of account is Bitcoin so I take those profits so when I

look at charts like that like xrp Bitcoin or or BNB or so whatever because because my unit of account is Bitcoin I would then just convert some Bitcoin into that altcoin in hopes of seeing a return and then if it does go up I will look at the the risk metric for Bitcoin if it's already gone to the point you know 08 point9 wristband then I'll just take profits to US dollars right if Bitcoin hasn't gone to that wristband then I'll typically take profits back to bitcoin and the reason is because Bitcoin gives you exposure

to the upside but it does minimize your downside risk right if Bitcoin were to have a flash crash to you know to like say 70k or 80k or something it's probably going to hold up better than the altcoin market in fact just a few days ago we saw Bitcoin drop into the 90s and what happened right Bitcoin dominance spiked back up right it retested this trend line right here so that's how I think about it you know it and if you take the Karen go ah go ahead no I mean and at the end of

the cycle do you go back into do you go back into Fiat like if you think that the cycle ends in November do you actually take your Bitcoin and cash out your Bitcoin into Fiat yes I mean I sell basically on the risk levels right so if we're at 0. n to One risk I don't care about what the narratives are I'm running for the hills you know I don't I don't really care at that point and it's you know even if I I don't cash out everything right I don't I want to be clear

I don't cash out everything because the reason is because all models are wrong right all models are wrong some are useful and I try to I try to use some to be useful to help me navigate when to sell but I I don't ever sell everything because even even if you Hadn't sold in late 2021 you're still doing okay now right even if you hadn't sold so I think there's some case to be made that just keeping you know always having some Bitcoin is probably the way to go because if you don't at least have

some then even in a bare Market on every bare Market rally you're going to freak out and probably fomo in at the next lower high right if you have some then at least you can feel somewhat comfortable that if the market does go Up you're not entirely getting left behind got you Ben listen it's been [ __ ] fascinating how on the channel it's been number one it's been too long but it's also been absolutely fascinating guys if you want a Ben's system which I use by the way I mean I've been a long-term subscriber

only because Ben gave it to me for free at one of the conferences but since then it's become really one of the best tools that I've used there is a link below and I can tell you that it's probably the best money you've ever spent it really has all the indicators that you saw Ben using um and I think Ben if you sign up for the if you sign up for inst the cryptoverse do you get access into all the other things I know you have a you have discords and you have you have you

have parties which we attend all the time um just maybe give us a rundown of what happens when people sign up yeah the website we have H Videos There's the parties the parties are probably the fun you know the funnest part I I think you you you went to the last couple of parties yeah I was in I was in Nashville I was in Miami I I've been I've been to the last couple yeah yeah I've been to quite been to quite a few yeah usually the best part so guys you can sign up there's

a link below also there's of course links to Ben socials his Twitter his YouTube and everything else Ben it's been an Absolute pleasure my friend it's been long overdue thank you so much so much love from me and the banter fam I really appreciate you coming on and I really enjoy these conversations with you so thank you so much my friend thanks for having me cool guys thank you and guys we will see you guys again on Sunday Sunday we have a show for you guys you know it's the dirty DJ show this week on

the dirty DJ show we're going to be talking about AI Agents and we're going to be talking about meme coins on One show so it's like a dirty DJ show on Sunday I will see you guys again on Sunday until in trade it well my friends [Applause]