Altcoin Season: You've Been Lied To [The Real Truth About Crypto]

there are so many misconceptions about alt season in today's video I'm going to be telling you the truth about crypto alt season when you can actually expect the real alt season this cycle and I've actually gone through all the data that you could possibly need to understand historically when old season actually hits and I've actually run a custom script which looked at past Cycles looked at periods of altcoin out performance looked at periods of ethereum out performance and has actually calcul ated when we can expect Al season to kick in this script holds the key

to the true meaning of old season because I see it flying around a lot and yes sometimes I'm guilty of of using alt season you know in the titles and thumbnails Etc it obviously gets a lot of clicks it's obviously a big Topic in crypto but today we're going to cuddle the fluff and just go straight to the data and look at actually when old season historically triggers how you can prepare for this eventuality and I think this is going to be a really valuable video for you guys heading into the next few months amidst

what is I think for a lot of you a confusing Market I am getting a lot of comments and I'm seeing a lot of talk on um Twitter about you know when when Al's going to run what's happening with the market the reality is they've already run very hard but we are now seeing Bitcoin dominance increasing again so we do need to discuss the current state of all coins today and I think it's going to be a very very very Alpha packed video I'm pretty proud of this research that I've done and I think it's

going to be very helpful for you guys so let's cut the fluff and pretty much get straight into it Bitcoin coin has been performing really really well in terms of the Bitcoin macro Trend it's still looking really good obviously yesterday Wicked up to 108 now it's sitting back at 104 we are seeing a bit of a general drisk because of fomc we often see a sell off prior to fomc as people just start to drisk a little bit I think also a lot of people are going on holiday right now and they just want to

drisk before Christmas and this makes a lot of sense because if you're going on holidays with your family for example and you're a big investment manager or you're managing like massive position do you really want to be stressed about being overleveraged heading into this period a period of chop a period of historically low volatility we know Christmas week and like New Year's Day like these aren't high volume trading periods for the market because people with their families they switched off the market so there's like this mini blackout period so it does make sense that the

combination of fomc and the Christmas period has resulted in a bit of sell-off more so for altcoins as opposed to bitcoin and that is reflected in the dominance although dominance has had a major shift towards the alts it has started to come back and retest this moving average on the 3-day here as we have seen some drisking of altcoins and Bitcoin catching a little bit more of a bid uh in respect to altcoins fomc is going to be later today that may impact markets but typically what happens is you see the dr- risking beforehand obviously

if there's any sort of shock during fomc that could result in a market move in either direction but I'm not going to focus on that today because today I want to give you longer term uh directionality in regards to alt season and my entire thesis to do with old season you can also see it's not just isolated to crypto stocks are also experiencing a bit of a sell-off now in terms of altcoins if you go onto the daily chart you can see a lot of stuff is down in fact most altcoins are down so if

you're looking at your portfolio right now and you're saying you know Mars XYZ coin is down like why is this happening just firstly accept that every coin is down even the biggest most popular coins in the market right now like hyper liquid that were absolutely ping are down even coins that have been running a lot recently are down all of the like you know Nory coins that were pumping over the last few days are also down so this it's not just limited to your portfolio or my portfolio most coins in the market are actually down

and this is a General market dr- risk so if you're worrying about your specific portfolio I wouldn't necessarily be worrying right now cuz everything is down but if you're worrying about the efficacy and when alt season is going to begin that is a a much more gen concern which we're going to discuss today because that actually holds the key to whether you should be taking advantage of this dip or whether you should also be der risking ahead of Christmas now looking at the statistics uh to do with the Christmas period historically you can see for

the S&P typically the rally happens post Christmas the biggest gains tend to happen after the middle of the month which we are now entering that period and the biggest gains actually happen towards the end of Christmas so if we are to see a bounce in the next few weeks it'll probably happen in that last week of December SL early Jan so just keep that in mind the other thing is crypto historically performs better after Christmas you can see a 3.7% average return in the post Christmas period as opposed to the pre Christmas period which is

much lower at 0.8% so if there was ever going to be a sell-off it makes sense for that sell-off to happen pre Christmas before a Rally post Christmas but we are going to get into the data as to when I think you know the big rally is going to again not just a short-term bounce now there has been and this is what really triggered me to make this video a lot of commentary on Twitter recently about whether we're even going to see a massive old season you know when that can occur and what the trajectory

is for allcoins you can see people now starting to ask the question are fresh retail flows alone capable of finding a full-blown alt season in a new market environment there are also questions look we went into this altseason territory for a few days but it was pretty much like the earlier part of the Year where we went for a few days we ended up retracing just like um in 2022 as well we haven't had that sustained M multi-day period I think it was 88 days like 2021 of alt season is that going to happen this

cycle was that it was that simply the fake out well this is where the language gets really differentiated and this is a very important point I'm about to make yes this is an old season index but the index that you look at the definition of that index impacts whether it's actually a true old season or not so this index is simply a calculation of altcoin performance percentage wise on centralized exchanges versus Bitcoin so if they outperform Bitcoin for an extended period of time the indicator ticks into altseason if they underperform Bitcoin the indicator ticks into

Bitcoin season the data that this index is looking at is if 75% of the top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season top 50 coins keep this in mind this isn't talking about the small Caps or the micro caps so it's not ENC capsuling that full others index like we show on the channel it's just the top 50 and although this is one indicator for altcoin season and I definitely do look at it a true altcoin season is actually a little bit different and there is a misconception in the market of what

a real altcoin season actually looks like and in today's video I'm going to unpack that and show you historically what a real altcoin season is now I'm going to go through this research piece that I posted on my Twitter yesterday and summarize it for you guys today because it does hold the key as to what you can expect over the next couple of quarters in crypto here's the truth an ALT season isn't a random occurrence it's actually a distinct seasonal phenomenon between the months of January and may which impact price action on ethereum which thus

drives altcoins so I'll highlight before I get into the data I'll highlight the floor the potential flaw with the argument I'm about to make is that ethereum typically triggers an ALT season whereas you might make the argument that ethereum isn't as hot this cycle so there'll be other triggers for an ALT season however I do personally believe that ethereum is still going to be a major trigger of alt season and I would go so far as to say that we can't see a massive massive altcoin run unless ethereum at least outperforms Bitcoin for a certain

period of time and that will obviously result in that decrease in dominance which is this typical trigger that you look for like SMY capitals anticipating over the next couple of quarters to actually trigger alt season so me personally I am looking as one of the metrics at ethereum outperforming Bitcoin and outperforming the market to dictate whether or not we are in an altcoin season so getting that out of the way let's actually look at what the data shows about when ethal performs the market and how that impacts the market and when it happens so this

whole research piece that I ended up coming up with and created the script for actually originated from when I was scrolling through my feed this post from aoria that said altcoin season is not merely a random period during which altcoins out perform Bitcoin it's a distinct seasonal phenomenon from January to may now the article that they posted was a research report from 2021 so what I actually did is I went through the report I ran a script and I added the recent data so the last 3 years worth of data to this to assert what

actually happens during this period from January to May and whether or not it really is a true altcoin season trigger the underlying thesis outlined in the report is quite simple alt season using ethereum as a proxy for alts is when eth significantly outperforms Bitcoin During the period of January to May and I think this is where the misconception sometimes come comes in a lot of people are viewing altcoin season as this metric here whether or not 75% of the top 50 coins per better than Bitcoin yes that is one definition however historically the big alt

Seasons you're thinking of those crazy blowoff Seasons like 2021 they happen when ethereum outperforms Bitcoin over the first two quarters of the Year those are the big altcoin Seasons now in 2021 we did also see a run in November so alts can rally outside of this window but the alt season that you're thinking of likely does occur during that early part of the year and this is backed up by seasonal data that I want to go through now so here were my here were my findings from basically adding the new data and running a custom

script based on this report that I found the first takeaway and there's four takeaways is that there's a clear seasonal pattern so ethereum's returns Spike considerably from January to may this boost is nicknamed alt season the old season that you know and love and it isn't just a random fluke statistical tests show that this has happened consistently over many years this leads me to point number two which is that eth averages around a 28% per month gain during this period obviously that's skewed by some of the earlier years so you're not expecting 28% month or

month necessarily now although it could happen and that could be the trigger for E to go to 10 to $15,000 but the key Point here is that during the other period of the year it only averages a 3% return so the majority of e gains happened from that 5mon period from January to May number three ethereum outperforms Bitcoin during this period so during this period And this is the trigger for alt season eth historically outperforms Bitcoin by around 20% per month during alt season which does suggest that Capital shifts from Bitcoin to eth and SS

in more speculative risk on markets now there has been a significant rally for Bitcoin off the back of the ETFs off the back of the Sailor bid off the back of this whole Sovereign Bitcoin narrative however I think ethereum is in a solid position to outperform due to the fact that you do have the regulatory landscape shift under Trump which is aiding the case for defi a lot of the wealth effect in Defi and a lot of these funds are still built on ethereum because it's the most decentralized layer 1 Network and it still has

that moat in terms of being a trusted Network yes salana has won over the retail Traders yes salana has one over the meme coin guys but by and large ethereum is still going to capture the major majority of that institutional capital and for that reason I think there is enough of an underlying narrative to potentially justify the seasonal outperformance that we have typically seen during this period and that trigger could definitely be triggered by people rotating into ethereum or bidding ethereum over Bitcoin after bitcoin's gone on such a massive run now if you actually look

at the alt Bitcoin bottoms they line up very well with E's out performance or the beginning e out performance cuz remember ethereum is maybe the trigger that phas to trigger for a true alt season but TS also start to get front run during this period and perform really well and that's what triggers alt is so you can actually look at last cycle as an example of this and you can assert that a lot of these coins actually bottomed around now in a couple weeks from now versus Bitcoin their local bottom that is for the remainder

of that cycle so eth BTC bottomed on December 27th 2020 this is the pre sorry this is the Haring year right now we're also in a Haring year so the Haring for 2016 2020 and 2024 2021 was the post harving year just like 2025 is the post Haring Year and that historically has been the year where crypto's had its biggest gains there's nothing to suggest that that won't be the case for the remainder of this cycle either so we also had arve on January 3rd put in its bottom we had Soul December 27th we had

B&B January 8th we had avac December 30th the list goes on and on and on for altcoins that actually put in their local bottoms last cycle now we are reaching this period now within a couple of weeks where Bitcoin is actually now starting to outperform but that shift back into ethereum and altcoins could trigger a bunch of local bottoms now I don't know necessarily whether it's going to be December 30th this year or January 3rd this year but the important thing is and the actionable part from your perspective is we're in this General vicinity now

where the shift starts to happen so you need to using these dominant spikes as opportunities to reposition in anticipation of that shift and slightly later in today's video I'll be going through the exact altcoins and the types of sectors that I think we'll see the strongest shift but this is very interesting data from last cycle which backs up the thesis today and it just so happens that these shifts happen during risk on markets but right now we're probably in one of the strongest risk-on environments that crypto's ever seen with the Trump presidency with the regulatory

shift that comes off the back of that with the sale of Bitcoin bid with accessibility to crypto via the ETFs with the shift that's happening in the AI landscape with the monetary policy and rate cuts that are currently happening it feels like the stars are aligning for a bigger risk on crypto environment which combined with seasonality which we're discussing now could be the recipe for one of the biggest altcoin seasons ever I'm not just saying this to sell you on a dream I'm saying this because the data is in front of us we have the

macro data which is in favor and we also have the historical data which is in favor it's a different set of circumstances now that's driving the market versus 2021 but nonetheless it's a separate set of powerful circumstances so now I think the name of the game is being a little bit patient because there are going to be periods probably for the next couple of weeks but maybe even during times in January and even slightly later where Bitcoin has the periodic periods of our performance no one's saying it'll just go down only right in terms of

Bitcoin dominance it might go like this and then it might come back down and then bounce and then make a lower low the idea is that from this point onwards in the cycle we should see this trend of dominance decreasing continue to establish itself it doesn't mean there aren't going to be periods where dominance goes up it's actually healthy for that to happen because the more liquidity that flows into Bitcoin the more liquidity that's going to go into alts so you shouldn't be looking at Bitcoin pumping as a bad thing if altcoins are dropping a

little bit when bitcoin's pumping you should be looking at this as a good thing because the more this happens periodically the more it prolongs the cycle whereas if we had started instantly just nuking on BTC dominance and we went like this you might be really happy in the short term right because yes it's old season we're making money but longer term this is worse for you you have less time to position you have less time to rotate and more people are going to get wrecked cuz it's going to cause a lot more fomo and the

rallies won't even be as big because Bitcoin hadn't gone enough up enough to justify a bigger rally you need wealth effect going into Bitcoin to justify bigger altcoin runs so this pattern that we are currently seeing is actually a very good thing for altcoins and I want to show you what actually happened in 2021 just for a little bit it's the exact same period and it's actually uncanny how similar the price action looks you have dominance spiking and then you have a drop in dominance around the December period which is what we saw then we

saw this second thrust up until December 28th that post Christmas period and then that was the ultimate reversal into a big altcoin season and you even saw this period where alts and Bitcoin were fighting and going back and forth until this big May blowoff and then it went back and forth again and then you had the second blowoff price Action Now is pretty similar in the sense that you've had the dominance rise then you've had the drop now we're having the second impulse it might even last longer into Christmas and then at some point I

don't know whether it's going to be December 28th again it could be January 10th it could be January 20th it doesn't matter history Rhymes it doesn't repeat at some point soon we'll see the shift to the downside again and that's where your positioning during the dominance Rises will come to fruition and you'll make a lot of money on altcoins so the reason I'm making this video primarily is to show you that although this time is different it actually isn't that different based on the historical data Bitcoin dominance looks really similar the Bitcoin Trend looks really

similar and the historical data has always pointed to the fact that the true alt season happens in the first two quarters of the year so why are we seeing Panic right now when we're seeing healthy and normal Market rotation that actually primes a bigger old season it's actually a really really good thing right now so now let's go into what you can do practically to prepare for this eventuality given the rough thesis that we should see a bigger old season in q1 slq2 next year well the first thing that I want to really prioritize here

is asset selection asset selection is super super important because the main difference between this cycle and last cycle is that there are many more altcoins this cycle versus the last one which means you need to really pinpoint the outperformers coins with a strong narrative strong community and strong mind share these are going to outperform versus last cycle where you could literally invest in anything and make money it's easier to launch tokens now with pump fun there's more dilution now because insiders have worked out that you can make a bunch of money from launching tokens so

more tokens are being launched so there's even though there's Maybe more people coming into the space and more liquidity coming into the space this is being counterbalanced by the amount of new projects that are launching and just the amount of aggregate projects in the space especially with all the meme coins so for that reason there's a huge premium on asset selection so I really want you to focus right on Crafting a high conviction portfolio where you believe in every single coin but every single coin has a great unique narrative fits a need in your portfolio

you have a lot of conviction in it and it has shown signs during rallies so far this cycle that that narrative actually outperforms so you're not in a bunch of weak stuff that's actually going to underperform during alt season because imagine how bad that would be getting to alt season after all this rig moral you actually knew what was happening in terms of timing but you fumbled the bag because you're in the wrong assets so what are some of the right assets that I would look at accumulating you can also see RV here saying people

debating the start of old season are simply deranged in the head as the disagreements are simply a matter of days apart pick your spots accumulate your favorites and make sure you're done buying by the new year that's all honestly that's a pretty simple plan so what should you be buying what should you be looking at during dips and yes I do believe this dip is a decent one to Ladder into could alts technically go down another 20% sure be mentally prepared for that but if our seasonality thesis is correct the best should be ahead of

us and thus this is one of your latter opportunities to actually accumulate stuff you're missing so let's go through some sectors the first sector I want to pinpoint is AI this is the sector that I have probably the most conviction in because I really think there's been a paradigm shift this cycle with an AI Focus specifically on AI agents but it's also one of those narratives that's just so hot in the real world it makes so much sense for this to transverse into crypto and lead to a really big AI crypto bubble because crypto has

so much liquidity it has so much mind share you combine that with AI you're going to see a lot of AI protocols really flying this cycle so AI I've put a lot of conviction into I don't know what percentage of my portfolio it is but it's over 25 to 30% it's a large chunk and that's because I think some of the biggest gainers are going to be in Ai and also it's not fully consensus yet not everyone's in it it still has some push back from a lot of like Crypt normies and a lot of

like even the meme guys that don't want to buy AI stuff which I like I don't like when everyone's onsite but not everyone's on side with AI so I would be really looking at positioning in some of these tokens I'm not going to speak about all of them today because I've already done videos on this my last video showed my latest accumulation list I talk about it every week I won't bore you but AI is definitely a sector that I've be looking into I actually recently found a new AI project that I'm going to be

sharing in the alpha channel of the ma high club this is my latest big AI position it's probably one of the biggest positions that I've put into any AI project in the last few weeks so it's meaningful and I'm going to be sharing that first in the M high club actually today within the next 24 hours of releasing this video it'll be shared in there so if you do want access to that early eventually I'll go through the full thesis on YouTube and on Twitter you can use the link in the description below sign up

for the Mars high club come be a part of the community um and that's a project that I thought was really really really cool because they were combining strong AI Tech because they were combining really strong Tech from the web 2 world and bringing that to web 3 using a token basically as a way to get mind share and Market the underlying product which is really smart because when you think about it if you're competing with with the chat GPT right and you're offering a subscription service how do you differentiate yourself like you can run

Google ads sure but it probably won't be as effective as launching a token in one of the hottest markets in the world which is crypto right now one of the biggest liquid markets if you can nail the marketing on the token side you bring a bunch of eyeballs and awareness to your product which means you can bootstrap that first 20 to th000 users way easier because they're financially incentivized via holding the token versus like running ads and trying to compete with subscription services so makes a lot of sense to launch a token not for the

sake of launching a token but to gain a strong Edge on the marketing front to Market your underlying product that's why I think you're going to see a lot of these really top AI projects from web 2 actually rebranding or launching in web 3 and I found one of them I found one of them that big PhD University students and professors were working on and that I'm going to share as I said in the Discord with the next 24 hours so there's a link in the description below if you want to join but AI is

definitely one of those sectors another sector that I'm really highly convicted in right now is rwa alongside AI this is my second biggest sector um in terms of Niche sectors not infrastructure because this reg the regulatory framework right now with Trump is probably in the strongest place it's ever been to facilitate real word asset development and asset tokenization and because of that the demand for this is really increasing I've seen this because for example checks was a chintai project I'm invested in I've seen their pipeline it's absolutely mental billi millions of dollars of capital being

tokenized coming on chain because now these companies feel like the regulatory environment is actually conducive for this was a few months ago pre-trump they weren't comfortable doing it I don't think the Market's caught up to this yet I don't think the market has realized at all what's actually happening behind the scenes and because I'm very involved behind the scenes as well I've been talking to the check team I've been getting the updates I'm seeing what's happening it's mind-blowing I was also a seed investor in Ono I've also been um a mantra investor for quite some

time uh I really like Pendle as well I've seen what's happening behind the scenes and rwa genuinely alongside AI has me the most excited of any sector and uh specifically checks seol uh pin link these are a few projects that I like in that space But specifically uh checks in terms of the pipel uh I I do like I'm just giving you token examples right now um but obviously there are more memes as well I think memes at some point still come back they've been the dominant Narrative of this cycle yes they've cooled off but

that spells opportunity just high level looking at some of the leaders now popcats now sub a bill it at one point it was at the same market cap as whff almost it's crashed down way below that could be an opportunity me there's a real thing right now with IP there's a big IP narrative and Mew actually owns all their IP which is super important they're creating their own world their own like universe and a lot of these other projects have just stolen IP and I think that's part of the reason why you're seeing like popcat

struggle and why you're seeing peanuts starting to sell off because there's there's a legal risk there of a getting sued and B if you don't actually own the IP do you own the project that's a genuine question so I think there's going to be an IP narrative around getting into the projects which own their IP and have unique IP and you could definitely make an argument coins like Mew are going to benefit from that obviously a coin like Pepe is always going to be wellknown um MOG as well like these are well-known recognizable jokes SL

like memes in in in the world um but yeah a lot of these protocols now at heavy discounts versus what they were a few months ago they might be slow movers but if you have patience I think you'll be rewarded for that keyword patience like lucky coin for example is it down since I mentioned it on the YouTube channel yes I mentioned it at $9 it's now $679 I did mention it a bit earlier in Discord at $4 but I understand not everyone got in that early but if you have patience I think this is

a narrative that is going to come back it's actually one that I have a lot of conviction in I haven't sold a scent I bought transparently at $2.50 I'm still holding haven't sold a scent now I'm actually buying more because I do believe it's a good opportunity with a lot of these memes you need to have patience lucky isn't in isolation all of these memes are down popcats down 50% right it's all of these memes are down and all of them are getting hit because memes aren't hot right now but my bet is that some

point they're going to come back so actually if you still have conviction in an asset at a lower price that's an even better buy than it was a few weeks ago if you're questioning your conviction on a coin like lucky for example it's cuz you never had conviction in the first place your conviction was based on price if your conviction is is based on your underlying belief the lower a project goes the more conviction you should have and that's kind of what's happening with me and lucky coin here and me and Mew here and me

and mug here and me like and a bunch of projects I'm getting more conviction as price goes lower because execution is a major part of crypto a good token at a bad price is a bad buy but a bad token at a good price is a good buy so you have to reframe your thinking I'm not saying any of them are bad tokens by the way but you have to reframe your thinking in terms of judging good buys not based on the underlying fundamentals but also based on the token price which also means if the

fundamentals haven't changed if they're the exact same as they were a month ago but the price is lower that makes it a good buyer at least a better buyer relative to what it was so I think the number one mistake crypto Traders make when they come into the market especially the newbies is execution they don't know how to execute on Trading it's not just about asset selection it's about pairing that with good execution and right now objectively you're getting good better execution on some of these projects than you were whilst they were pumping a couple

of weeks ago and I know it's hard to Grapple with this fomo because most people are conditioned to buy the highs but if you want to succeed in crypto you need to buy the lows that starts by working out what you're fundamentally bullish on and then you need to come up with a plan to accumulate that asset at the lowest possible cost basis and if you can execute that you'll make money in crypto if you don't if you can't execute on that it doesn't matter what assets you buy if you're buying at the wrong time

you're probably not going to succeed now because the bull market might rise All Ships you might get away with it right but if you really want to outperform you can't get away with sloppy execution you need strong execution and then the last sector is quite obvious it's defi coins like Athena coins like Rune hyper liquid I think they're all going to do well even chain link maybe it won't 10x but it's still got a good upside from here def is another sector that I'm looking at so AI l ones me uh mem coins rwa I

think if you can build a good portfolio amongst these sectors you'll do really well obviously there's gaming as well but the main thing that you should be focusing on is accumulating tokens you have high conviction in don't buy into a token just cuz I have conviction in it or anyone don't watch ran Crypt banter and and buy something because he has conviction in it don't watch altcoin Daily and buy something because they have conviction in it don't watch coin Bureau and buy something because they have conviction in it take that information and decide yourself whether

you have conviction in it I've talked about checks a lot on this channel and yes it is up but if you don't have conviction in the rwa narrative don't buy checks just cuz I talked about it I've spoken about lucky coin on the channel it's now down since I mentioned on the YouTube channel if you have conviction in it you might think this is a buying opportunity but if you don't don't buy it just cuz I talked about it don't buy anything just cuz anyone talked about it buy it cuz you like it be responsible

for your own decisions and then take credit for your own decisions and don't give credit to someone else my job on the channel is to give you opportunities that I think are good based on my research from myself and my team your job is to take that information and filter it and make an investment decision taking that information into account but then putting your own beliefs into into the frame and and focusing on your own trading execution because if you really want to succeed this cycle you need to have conviction or you're going to get

chopped up especially in a period where dominance is increasing you can get chopped out of positions but the tldr from today's video is that Al the true old season hasn't actually begun and based on historical data it could be happening very very soon so instead of panicking St planning for that and I think you'll be in a much better position in a few months time if you want to join the MS high club I'll leave a link in the description below come be a part of that Community I will be handholding you guys a little

bit more alongside the Traders over the next few weeks because this is a very important accumulation period and part of that is going to be me sharing one of the new coins I took a big position in and I'll keep you updated in the alpha Channel if I add any major positions or make big shifts to my portfolio I'll see you in the next video have a lovely rest of your day peace out