Ethereum in the 2000s is cheap I think salana in the 100s is cheap and I think Bitcoin under 100K is cheap I I think quarter million to half a million dollar Bitcoin makes complete sense and I think that $10,000 ethereum makes complete sense and I think that you know $500 salana makes complete sense and I don't think those are that aggressive as targets welcome to bft where we explore the frontier of Internet money and Internet finance and today we are exploring some charts some technical analysis some trading charts and we're doing it with our friend
Ledger Ledger from Ledger cast Ledger from up only uh Ledger is a friend of pod certainly and whenever I want to look at charts uh I need some help uh because I'm not a charted chart person so we bring on ledger to help navigate some charts I present Ledger with four charts to kick the conversations off Bitcoin dominance The eth BTC ratio the East salana ratio and then the salana USD price as we have all of passed through the market turmoil of the Japanese Yen unwind uh debacle that kind of permeated rippled throughout all the
markets I think this is an opportunity to kind of just check in check in and zoom out uh I think these four charts that I'm presenting Ledger with kind of tell a story and I want to see his hear his interpretations of them uh and then he also takes over And starts to drive the charts as well opening up the Dixie chart uh the interest uh the 10-year uh interest rate chart uh as well as a few others uh and just you know Ledger is a wise man uh he's seen a sting or two in
the markets uh and so just always want to get his perspective as to where we are when we look at the charts uh and what this means for crypto as we move forward so it's pretty fun conversation I hope you all enjoy it let's go ahead and get Right to that conversation with Ledger but first a moment to talk about some of these fantastic sponsors that make the show possible especially Kraken if you have been compelled to make any moves as a result of this conversation I compel you I ask you to do it on
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synergies With the Unis swap web app so go and download the Unis swap extension today by clicking the link in the show notes just another way Unis swap is helping you swap smarter Bank station I'm here with the lovely Ledger Ledger how you doing today man M I'm doing great how are you good good good to see you dude uh we always bring you on when I want to look at charts because anytime I look at a chart with just me and Ryan I realized that it's just like it's embarrassing And I shouldn't be doing
that at least at least with interpreting them uh with the recent Yen trade unwind that kind of just pummeled the markets there's like an opportunity I think to kind of like zoom out and kind of do a checkpoint of like all of the crypto charts uh so I'm sharing on the screen here four charts that I think are kind of Matic of maybe perhaps the current state of crypto uh we got the Bitcoin dominance chart which has been up only for a year and a half Now we have the eth BTC ratio which has been
down only uh for like two years uh Soul eth which is painting new highs uh and then Soul USD just because uh salana has kind of been one of the meta focuses of this particular cycle uh I think this is hopefully just like kind of an opportunity just just to look at these charts and and get your interpretation as to like what the vibe is uh from a man who knows how to navigate charts uh so so maybe uh I know you always have Pretty like pretty deep analytical takes because you are both following the
crypto industry while also looking at the charts when when I present to you these four charts that are all like right next to each other on the screen here what's the first kind of thought that comes to mind what's what's the first uh thing you think about uh yeah I mean I think first off it's it's not too surprising that Bitcoin dominance has done well I feel Like a lot of well let's back up the narrative just a tad like I think a lot of people people are wondering is this cycle over and that kind
of stuff and I actually think that the cycle if you will is has probably hardly begun not to get overly bullish just to say like what we've done so far feels more like the experimental stage and the in between stage of what's probably a longer Market cycle than we're historically accustomed to where I think you'll look back at the ETF launches and um some of the dyn you know the changes in ecosystem as more of the beginning of a cycle um or like a early cycle pause that feel if you're trying to give a coral
area that's more like 2019 is than anything else um whereas there's a lot of people that they might have gotten rich and then poor again or whatever on Meme coins or something like that feels like a smaller meta to me within a broader ma crypto macro cycle like when People think of when they think of you know Bitcoin making new highs or stuff happening I I don't know if you see this David but I see this where like most people aren't really asking me about crypto at all in my real life like they're not they're
not excited about buying crypto they're not like or even stocks in general even though you've seen some amazing runs on like Nvidia and other things I feel like overall I would say relative to inflation in Particular like the real values of the stock stock market has really just been chugging along more so than you know in some kind of state of euphoria or anything like that and I think you know bitcoin's really been or crypto has really been pretty modest as a whole and it it's been more of a um a zero sum game within
crypto markets um and so some things have won and some things have lost and um a lot of things have round tripped and what you're showing on The screen right now is more of what are what are the assets that have kind of showed up as as as dominant assets and one of the biggest things that I think you're presenting here with salana is like ethereum did um in the in the last Market cycle starting in 2020 salana is essentially entering the big boy table where I think we can safely Define salana as a major
not P not purely by market cap or like total market cap but like um De yeah M share development activity um people that care about it like people that care about it no matter what the price is um it's not like it survived a thing it survived a hardship like with the FTX failure and going you know from a price perspective going from 250 plus down to $8 and then and then has recovered and forget whether it's in price exploration or something it's just that it didn't really impact the fact that people cared About it
and kept building on it and I think that makes ju that's just as important as market cap in terms of it becoming a major and so I think you create this network effect this per perpetual motion type of thing where it it is in a new Arena and it's not a cathedral like it's more of a bizarre um whereas a lot of these like defined l1's or L2 ecosystems are still like well hopefully if we build it people will come and you have't all you don't Necessarily have like massive amounts of evidence of those doing
so and so I think like Soul e uh in in particular or even if you looked at so I mean Soul relative to anything I think it's it's fairly fairly well outperformed as its arrival if you will um and then but within that that's the that's the inner meta of Soul becoming a major Soul's not at all-time highs you know what I mean like eth is not at I eth is not at all-time high eth is Underperformed probably because it because we're not necessarily pulling in so many brand new people that because soul is gained
eth is actually may like it may have gain but just not as as quickly as Soul so it's lost on a relative basis um and and Bitcoin has entered its own uh teenage years as a as a macro instrument to the Legacy Market like and and that's thanks to the ETFs and so um but a lot of this is still cyclical to me I still I personally am Like really bullish on all three of these assets and so therefore seeing these swings and relative values is more fun than it is anything else because if they
were static then there's no trade to be made but when they're not static it gives you an opportunity to identify value and uh so that's kind of the framing that I would use uh for these before we dig into like the specifics of what do I think's going to happen next or whatever let me throw some Vibes at You that I think that you'll agree with and so double check me if I'm wrong um Bitcoin dominance has been up for a year East BTC has been down for two years uh Solana has been on the
uptrend for coming up to a year now uh and I kind of think that um because I definitely have started to move in more towards your your uh side of the of the argument of which we actually never have been in a market cycle we're more in just like this period where crypto people are Doing insular crypto things for the last 12 months and as a result of that because Cycles historically have been defined as many new people come into the industry retail comes in there's a new game to play last cycle was nfts the
cycle before was the Ico Movement we hadn't we haven't had that we've just had some crypto people doing crypto things inside of the crypto industry and as a result there's been some trends that haven't had any reason to uh change The growth of Bitcoin dominance being like a very big one uh and I also would say like Solana the rise of Solana is like the actual um exception that kind of makes the rule whereas Solana had this idiosyncratic moment with uh the FTX collapse which like oversold it by a large degree because it had it
had Believers in the salon Eco system even before FTX collapsed uh and then it also rebounded alongside this like me coin thing which is this again insular uh Self-referential crypto activity that a lot of Deens do that also really kind of just went alongside the growth the rebounding of Solana post FTX Solana kind of all got rated at once once with the double whammy of stopped being oversold in December of 2023 with a goo airdrop and then you had the addition of just like well it's also it's got It's got the current casino that the
Deens enjoy which is the mean coins and that's why uh while eth BTC has been down for Two years salana eth ratio has been only up for one year uh and that's kind of like the the the middle the middle of the lull Market that's been like the thing that has defined the last like 12 months or so but meanwhile we have no actual there's no Market cycle here we are kind of just like in this limbo period waiting for new people to come in and actually Define what a new cycle might look like that's
kind of a Vibe do you do you agree with that yeah I think It it makes sense and I think salana it benefited from with mcoin Mania if you will um maybe that was its like yams type moment for you know like e e defi emergence right I don't I don't know if it has as direct of a coral are because I think what salana is actually doing really well is capturing maybe like this dpin Market or you know the um uh this corlar to like quasi real world assets or or instrumentation whereas eth I
think is is really further establishing Its dominance for like big boy financial markets and what a what are those what do those look like for eth like the the largest lendon borrow markets in the world can exist on eth and um and and you know like there's things like I I'm just I'm not Shilling bags or anything it's just like I'm trying to think of some and been out of some of the main dayto day but if you think of like the helium of the world you know like putting networks real world Networks Works on
on chain um and there's a lot of them um I think salana has done a really good job of of capturing some of that and so I think you'll see you'll continue to see that where like different blockchains start to serve very specific purposes for the sake of speed or for the sake of um durability or for the sake of reliability um you know platforms will continue to choose certain certain assets over others um I mean I've Continued to be really impressed with like how well defi works all the time no matter what no matter
what you throw at it like if you look at um a lot of like the curve liquidation drama was pretty funny like I me pretty sad but like also kind of interesting um but how well like even curve curve oriented markets maintained themselves uh much less like the derivative effects if you look at a and other stuff and you know compound got attacked recently and I guess Figured it out and you know like there's there's there's a good stuff happening on all chains and I don't think I I don't know I'm kind of anti- maximalist
I guess uh and especially so right now um but yeah we're not we're not we're not seeing like the major narratives evolve and like seeing outside stuff come in and even VC volume is down and things like that you know like despite price being good these are all signs of this Consolidation you know early cycle or midcycle type stuff not late cycle type stuff and I think all the late cycle doomers are wrong basically I think the other thing that's kind of worth noting as we zoom out and look at this the landscape of the
charts as a whole is that Bitcoin has passed the 2021 uh all-time high only only twice uh it first passed it when it hit $72,000 in March and then it did it again where it hit $71,000 Uh in May yeah uh but we haven't been able to sustain Bitcoin has not been able to sustain the all-time highs uh beyond that um and so and then also eth even with the ETF even though like a lot of the ETF juices is still left to be squeezed eth is at sub $33,000 like it got up to $4,000
within Striking Distance of its old on alltime high but actually just never even got any closer than that and now it's alltime high seems very very far away and like you Said salana also just not at its old alltime High uh and I'm I'm not at contrasting whatever the opposite of contrast is alongside with the fact that we don't have any new new users coming into crypto those things seem to make sense where we have like the ETFs but no new users and so therefore we only have like this being within like Striking Distance of
all times Highs but no any like net new price Discovery so I I think that there's like a lot Of assumptions that people make like you know what just because we have we're going to have yet another four-year Market cycle you know because that's how the having works or whatever and I think honestly I think the ETS for example might have a bigger impact on um demand than the having itself um and it may be doubly so but it also might just be on the opposite side of that headwinds in the broader Global Market are
more better presented in crypto markets Because they they in more traditional Assets Now um therefore like election stuff that almost always creates like uncertainty and you know potential downside or or kind of at best consolidation for a few months prior to getting certainty later in the election cycle I actually think that's impacting crypto right now in a big way especially because crypto is a policy item in in this election in America and I don't really think the election results will Have a huge impact on price it may have a huge impact on policy especially down
the line like Beyond Bitcoin um I think it could have a big impact on you know Defi and and and and crypto policy depending on who's elected um but I think seeing I'm on a monthly chart right now seeing like six months of consolidation after prior all-time highs it may feel kind of depressing but when you look at a monthly chart like there's nothing wrong with this you know like This is just totally normal stop being bored like go do something you know what I mean like people will chop themselves up to death rather than
just sit on their hands and do nothing and do nothing yeah like they will they will just freak out all the time and when you just look at Bitcoin by itself like we are not outside the world in crypto where you need this chart to be healthy for your other charts to be healthy by and large now you can have this chart in Consolidation and somebody is making like 100 x's on like a current meta and that's great because they're just getting wealthier they're taking money from people that were worse at the game than they
are and and then that money will be put into better and smarter hands theoretically um in that kind of Zero Sum environment but then you're also preparing for what does it look like when when broader markets are interested in this asset um and so all This correlates back to to my mind like you know macro stuff like where rates where is the dollar where's all that stuff going on and all that stuff is honestly good people don't talk about that a whole lot but like the Dixie looks like it's it's uh got downside potential which
usually correlates really nicely with bull markets in crypto um I have these lines that are essentially Associated to where did bull markets begin and if you look at this it Essentially looks like a mid cycle the Dixie is on a devaluing trajectory and in my mind I I don't even know when I drew this right here this little like Head and Shoulders consolidation thing um because I haven't recorded a podcast in months um but like um not to brag but it's like I didn't need to record a podcast um I I think like I I
think you could see um the Dixie go down like sub 100 over the next couple of Years and get back to that mean at in the 90s and that almost certainly is good for crypto whether that um whether that that vertical Delta is the same as these like these Cycles are fairly similar in length and they aligned pretty well with uh Crypt bull markets you know this is December 2013 December 16 March 2020 um November 2022 and um and and and this is this is Potentially like if that continues to go down I think that's
going to be good for crypto dollar down crypto up um generally in Cycles it's it's it's much harder um yeah it it it's much harder when that's that that's working against you um and so for listeners who don't know what the Dixie is the Dixie dxy is an index of dollar strength uh so when the Dixie goes down it means like generally assets go up yeah yeah and so um you know when you when you compare That to the Bitcoin chart itself like that consolidation feels more normal like it aligns up actually with a lot
of that that consolidation in the dollar as well um and so I I think the longer we consolidate here it's not that bad um I do think if we go if we like if the broader economy me if the Soft Landing fails which this is going to might be a hot take for people I think the soft Landing is succeeding right now I think I think the burden of proof Is on people who don't believe that at this point yeah yeah like yes are there struggles in the economy for sure but like we're not in
a we're not we're not in like in inflation has not run away you know we got a two-handle on inflation for the first time and time I think this last last week or something right yeah and so can is inflation still a problem or prices still a problem yes but they kind of always have been even when they've Been hidden but they're it's not six or eight you know it's not 10 um we do face a situation where economies are going to have to decide do they want to print money or control spending and they're
really bad at controlling spending so like we'll see can they print money like and that's bipartisan bipartisanship the only bipartisan thing that anyone believes in is like well we still have to do all the things that we want to do so let's just print more Money and um and and so I think that's going to be the result again if they can do it without sending inflation right back to 6 and 8% then I think that'll be really positive for assets um especially you know like disinflationary assets like Bitcoin and ethereum um and so so
I I continue to see very strong macro reasons for upside and then it's a matter of like how do you play the Cycles what are the cycles mean and you talked about ethereum earlier and I Think it's just wor looking at ebtc again like some um levels that I I've had on here for a long time and it was really correlated to when ethereum came out of the bare Market um 2018 and 2019 it kind of established these local highs and it's now using that as support that is not bullish you know like this is
below I I love the 20 and 200 moving averages below the 200 moving average uh like that's the mean if you will and so like eth is weak relative to bitcoin for Sure but it's nowhere close to where it was at the lows at like sub 018 it's at 0.044 do I think that it could go back to 0.14 yes but what's the narrative like you need yeah you need but you need real thing you need real stuff to happen in eth it's a big deal like real Global Financial stuff difference making applications and protocols
that are probably at the scale of like um large corporate governmental nation state even products That are utilizing the ethereum blockchain to for reference ratio of e14 to bitcoin is approaching market cap parody with Bitcoin you're saying he's Ledger is saying that it's in this potential simulation eth could could get equal to bitcoin yeah you could probably find some podcasts back when where David was like freaking out wondering if we were going to have the flippening to word you probably haven't even heard in a long time yeah I haven't said that Word in a really
long time well you didn't say it still I did um and and that's not that's not what I'm banking on but like those are the high for ebtc I think what's more likely is can it breach this like 075 .08 type of territory and get back to like uh 0.1 of bitcoin's price which is not the flipping but it is a very very strong asset I do think that's possible we are clearly in a multi-year downward trajectory I'm not trying to polish a Turd here um eth has not been as good of an asset to
own as Bitcoin or salana um on its own eth is okay um although I this this may depress you a little bit like if you look at the 200 we moving average um on a weekly basis which Bitcoin except for I think the most recent cycle always used as bare Market support because it was just always on such an upward trajectory um ethereum um kind of held it as support uh but tested it several times ethereum looks like It's basically back in that range so it kind of looks like it's in this sad State of
Affairs like it was um in 2022 through 2023 recovered uh really nicely and this is against USD but now like that average has moved up it's very very weak in terms of like just dollar level strength which it really shouldn't be in an in an inflationary environment like we've had and so you may look at that different ways you may say like well this really sucks I should just buy Something else or you may look at this as a relative opportunity for Value if you still believe in all the things that ethereum is good for
um I I think both are completely reasonable like it's hard to fight a trend and if if Bitcoin is strong and salana is strong then um you know those might be better assets to own a majority of um I don't think that that means that eth is dead and I think eth is still a highly investable asset um I think you need to be on the lookout for What does a bounce look like what do the narratives look like and actually the the the that uh the devalue trade that you're were talking about um earlier
that caused not just ripples but like tsamis across markets and crypto and a lot of people were like oh it's over if you look at ethusd it bounced off that 200 we moving average and actually made a pretty nice weekly Wick um which in my personal opinion means that there's some strength for eth like some native demand Well above $2,000 it is definitely not pretty though like you know we went we went to 4800 at the top of the last Market cycle so it has to double from here to get to all-time highs I do
think we'll see eth alltime highs I do think the ETFs provide a real positive flow environment but um and and it looked pretty good going into the ETF and then also uh prior to that that uh yend valueing uh meltdown I think that the grayscale Ethy uh stuff getting out uh of the ecosystem is extraordinarily healthy um like you're kind of shedding off the um the bad stuff right now you know like and that's good so you get rid of the eth problem and then you have more of a natural hey people with uh ETF
access with larger pools of money people have larger pools of money in their retirement accounts where they have ETF access oftentimes than they do in like liquid what am I going to put in Coinbase today it's really hard to convince yourself to go put something either on chain in coinbase Gemini like whatever your exchange of choice is and people do that in smaller amounts of money than they're willing to roll their retirement accounts with like a lot of people our age have figure retirement accounts that they would totally buy crypto with from those retirement accounts
I think people are discounting that that real buying power that exists And people will buy those ETFs and I think that will be very good for both Bitcoin and ethereum but you got to you got to shed you got to shed your problems and eth was a problem you know like need you need people to be able to redeem against that discount that existed and whatnot so I think like with Bitcoin we're seeing that happen with ethereum that Wick that we experienced in eth where it touched the 200 day moving Average from the um uh
Yen carry tra unwi 200 week excuse me uh like I think a large part of that uh the size of the wick was coming from uh junk capitals like dumping of eth from the perceived like Leverage that they had which was a big deal by the way that's a huge deal fun fact turns out it's actually not jump Capital um the label the addresses are actually mislabeled but everyone thinks that it's jum Capital but somebody had a lot of Leverage that they Had to unwind at the bottom and this is also this also happened with
the three hours Capital liquidation uh when everyone found out that they went bankrupt they were dumping St eth into the bottom of the market in a very illiquid market and you also saw the eth BTC ratio just like take a huge pummeling down then back then and then also kind of pound bounc back up uh because eth is this Capital asset that's used as collateral for leverage when There are cascading Liquidations in the market eth takes like a larger brunt of the Force than than other assets simply because it's it is the collateral uh and
so that's I think why that Wick is so big but also uh to go back to like what you were saying with the trend the trend is not eth's friend at the moment right now the trend is Bitcoin strength and salana strength and I think that like we the if you are an eth bull you're kind of asking for a phase change in the Market because the current market phase whatever phase we're in is not in eth's favor so whatever like new retail coming in new users coming in new part of the bull market cycle
that begins perhaps now perhaps later like I think if you're an eth holder you're just asking for something to be different because the trend is not like the trend is going to like run eth into the 200 we moving average again probably is that a fair take yeah yeah it could for sure um And I yeah you're looking at when do I want to call the bottom of this trend or maybe more conservatively like tack on for the upside as the trend proves that it's reversing um and I don't I don't know when that's going
to be on eth BTC because I think generally BTC is pretty strong and I I like I would have no problem owning Bitcoin and so predicting it relative to bitcoin I'm not necessarily prepared to do I actually Think salana has been softening a good bit um and I think that's heavily correlated to the inevitable unwind of the meme coin stuff um and people troll me all the time like and I'm actually trolling them often times when I post like a whiff chart and you know I started back when I was like good luck with that
or whatever and people hated on me and then every now and then like pretty much anytime it see it's it's getting dumped over like a weekly Trend I would I would tweet something yeah I would tweet something and they'd all get mad at me and like I really don't care what happens with whiff but like you can't tell me this is strong that is a brutal chart yeah um so when I first did it it was in this consolidation and then it pumped and so people are like trying to countertrade me or whatever whenever I
Tweet stuff like that um this is not strong and I think like this is representative of the meme coin Market Um I would in an environment where you have a lot of real world um value for for these maj that we've been talking about I just have no desire to be like oh yeah I can get a 10x on this too after somebody else got 100x already and they're Distributing into this chart right now what you see on this chart is people Distributing their wins like or capitulating on their losses because they thought they were
early but then realized they weren't early and so like Whiff people or whatever and whiff is held up way better than other meme coins like tons of meme coins are down 95% plus already they don't want to tell you that 80% of their portfolio is in other crap and 20% of their portfolio is in whiff and you know they're giving me a hard time because like if I make a tweet about whiff when it's here and I say how bad it looks and they're like ah thank God Ledger called the bottom again and I can
be happy and then they start Messaging me saying how dumb I am and guess what it's every time they do it it's like up here and there's always a top so like just counter trate everybody is the point like just look at my tweets when I when I do that by by Whi and um and then when people start saying like haha I Told You So then then dump it that's the that's the how to play the Dual counter trade be a double agent um but this looks like crap is my point and right um
you Know this this is this was this was the game on salana and so I think some of that weakness until some of these deepend ideas and other ideas like gain their own native traction which I think they will um and I think salana is fantastic like I think the weakness in meme coins will affect salana itself and I like salana a lot like I don't necessarily want that to be true um I just I just think it will and I think that you see it right here like this is Consolidation sure but it's it's
I see weakness like this is the 200 day moving average it's it's dropping below that it just doesn't look very good to me um the 20we moving average it's dipped below it is in a consolidating range but like if if if soul went back to like sub 100 it wouldn't surprise me at all and a lot of a lot of people would probably get pissed off about me saying that and they can troll me in the comments down here below um and so I just think that I Think that that's not an unlikely scenario I
I'm not saying I want it to happen I'm not guaranteeing that it will happen I will say like in this range here it needs to it needs to like abide by that Wick that it had during that meltdown that we had because what I would like to see for salana strength would be kind of bouncing off this continuing to consolidate and creating this like really exciting type of consolidation that's more at the highs Not at the lows of the range so that you could have you know a breakout opportunity that would take it to alltime
highs um I just think that might take till like after the election end of year that's that tends to be a good time for um like strong upside um is end of year post elction and then have a really strong 2025 like price Discovery in 2025 across crypto assets would make sense to me trying to predict like where is that going to begin it wouldn't surprise me At all it's August August September October November you know you got 90 is it under 100 days now to the election right around yeah around then yeah mhm yeah
it wouldn't surprise me at all if 60 to 60 to 80 of those days include more Chop on a relative basis where salana underperforms Bitcoin and Bitcoin itself chops as well um wouldn't surprise me at all and it just happens it happens every four years and people act surprised about it about an Election um and and if we add to our kind of potential for weakness argument uh Soul eth has had these kind of four drives now this still strong here no doubt about it U it just wouldn't surprise me if it like went back
towards the bottom of the range um and so um and soul BTC kind of similar just in the middle of a range um also 200 day moving average here like those are just the things I would be looking for if I was doing more like swing type trading and Trying to in short-term capital gains positioning trying to figure out would I rather own salana ethereum or Bitcoin right now um personally Sana is not it's not first on my list I think it's probably third on my list um that's also how it is in my own
portfolio I guess I didn't think about it that way but um I just I just think there might be a little bit of relative weakness um that can be disproven by Price disco like price Discover or relative price Discovery like break out of this range against Bitcoin you know I'd have no I'd have no problem on on salana like buying something like that but let it prove it you like you don't have to be a genius you know like why bother with the consolidation um and so I think it's kind of a boring time like
to be honest in terms of uh in terms of crypto stuff um that's not a bad thing um and I think you Just you're looking for kind of relative trades like we need to see considerably more strength in ethereum we need to see um more strength in salana I think Bitcoin looks the best of all of them right now but it too is under its 200 day moving average um and is just in this choppy range that I think we can expect to continue to some degree and if you're not prepared for that potential outcome
like what if Bitcoin goes to 40K well there's your that's definitely your Scenario for salana under 100 eth under 2K um and I'm not trying to be a bear but that would wash out a lot of Leverage it would wash out a lot of like specula speculation that occurred in meme coins um all those things would get completely destroyed um I don't think it would be that bearish for the majors in the in the sense of I think those would be good relative values to buy at um and so how do you want to position
yourself between now and the end of the year um In a place to where you can take advantage of those opportunities because I think there's going to be some really great ones I do the I think the pattern that a lot of people are seeing is that relative weakness that you're seeing in salana the clear weakness and the trend of weakness that we were seeing in in ethereum and then the lack of uh breakout that we're seeing in Bitcoin and especially in that Bitcoin chart That mon monthly Bitcoin chart where like if Bitcoin is consolidating
below all-time highs uh like consolidating below alltime highs is like kind of sick for like a little bit but it's been a really long time and I think in the crypto markets with the very impatient crypto Traders crypto investors that we we have because of these fouryear Cycles if it's not going up then that's a risk like consolidation yeah looks like it's like well if it's not going up it's Going to go down and if it doesn't go up soon enough then like I think the fear is that people get impatient and they start to
assume like oh the Cycle's over it's time to sell and get out well it's especially depressing when you're underperforming stock market um oh yeah for sure which is which is occur L Yeah by a lot like look at the wick that stocks created relative to what Bitcoin created um and and what's crazy is it's not just the stock market like if we go To um gold for example like on a chart now percentage wise I don't know how sever it is but like on a chart gold looks freaking great like gold gold broke out yeah
it's in price Discovery and I'm sorry if that hurts your feeling it's just true you know like uh it had a four-year fouryear consolidation and now has been doing very nicely for six months straight um I think that's a a good thing for Bitcoin to just rip it to Pieces once it actually goes but it's lagging like crazy right now um and yeah um you know one other element you know you talk about rates and whatnot I think seeing consolidation and rates as well which was absolutely a headwind on Market on on uh crypto like
I think that uh if the 10year goes back down to the mean which is uh about half a half a percentage below where we are now um that would that would be uh really good for crypto um so if you can do all that Without actually going into a full-on recession and do it as a soft the soft Landing everybody in crypto should be rooting for soft Landing because when you're the lagger in the room if the Mark if the economy as a whole turns and you never pump like you're just the sad one that
underperforms on the downside so like you need to be rooting for that soft Landing pretty much um and and right now I think there's a lot of potential for it I mean even the NASDAQ Which has had some weakness but it looks freaking great like on a relative basis like this is much better to own um than than crypto over the past year or so um earlier you said um that like we're entering uh or like the ETFs kind of broke the back of the fouryear cycle uh and I'm I'm starting to also get behind
this idea that like what one of the reasons why I think you know the average crypto Speculator crypto Trader crypto investor like like emotionally feels bad Is because we were expecting the four-year cycle and we're not getting it and so expectations are dashed but like we also do have the fundamentals of the ETF flows which are not like crack cocaine it is a steady trickle of just like you know good solid like you know good dopamine like a slow it's it's slow right it's like we're not jumping the gun here like we're just it's going
to be slow but I don't know if you saw if you've paid attention to The numbers on this but all the the top four or something Bitcoin ETFs are like the top four ETFs in a long time right and yeah and the next one is ethereum like ethereum is behind I think the top four Bitcoin ETFs or something like that but it's better than every other ETF that's come out uh in like the last year at a minimum and maybe multiple years I can't remember um and so there's there is demand for those ETFs and
I think that is amazing like that's amazing um You're seeing kind of the proof in the pudding but the the S&P uh the NASDAQ they benefit from these just every single month people DCA DCA DCA straight out DCA yeah and that's that's what we're presenting an opportunity for for crypto to be part of that basket and that's a powerful basket like if you bet on um as especially as people are not Boomers investing heavily in their retirements you know Millennials are About to have their Peak earning years and Millennials are very open to crypto like
don't forget these things and don't live on these like daytoday timelines like for once in your life think on a on a 10-year spectrum and what that means like I absolutely believe somebody that's putting $100,000 in a market now um is going to have seven figures by the time they retire if they're in if they're in their 20s 30s and 40s um and I think that that Is an amazing opportunity don't get um don't get distracted and burnout on things and identify the fact that you have a 10x plus opportunity sitting in front of you
and I think that's the what we have in crypto markets um it's even with Majors like not even talking about all the stuff down the line and I I I think that um I I think that ethereum in the 2000s is cheap I think salana in the 100s is cheap and I think Bitcoin under 100K is cheap like I'm sorry that's just How I feel and so um I I think quarter million to half a million doll Bitcoin makes complete sense and I think that $10,000 ethereum makes complete sense and I think that you know
$500 salana makes complete sense and I don't think those are that aggressive as targets yeah as H Chris biski and many other say uh don't it up uh and I think uh people very frequently it up because they think that these numbers are coming like in four months or three Months uh too short amount of the time you know you and I have been here for a decent amount of time and one of the reasons that we're still here is that like we generally try to keep a level head um keeping your your leverage down
like stop using leverage like you really suck at it like 99.9% of you absolutely suck with leverage um I would much rather see people go in to crypto with conviction if you will like mhm I would much rather With spot in Majors see somebody put 80% of their net worth in crypto then to put 10% of their net worth in crypto but then go leverage traded all the time you will lose your 10% and get disen uh disenchanted but if you put 80% and you're in spot and you averaged in over time during a time
like this where you're either in consolidation a bare Market whatever like I feel very confident in somebody feeling good about that decision over the course of years Um I feel very negative about somebody that thinks they're going to turn a ,000 into $10 million um using using leverage and buying the coin of the day and almost everybody that in in my life like says they want to get in crypto they struggle to not do that they they just can't help themselves and they want to make stuff that's happening fast but feels slow day to they
want it to happen faster they want it to happen now um when it's Happening fast but you've been going slow you'll know and you'll be able to react like you know when 2020 defi happened when 2021 nfts and all melt up on all the things happened it happened fast and we all knew we all knew oh my gosh the train is going and it's time to bet more like you just know but it's because we were already there for years and you felt the difference in real time I do remember that moment where eth broke
out from like being it it broke Out higher than $330 which it hadn't for like two years and it hit $425 or something like this and I had never seen a Time on crypto Twitter and all my chat groups all my Discord channels all my telegram servers everyone was like oh yeah it's on and we were all right like it was consensus and we were right and the next thing that happened was eth went from like $400 up to $11,100 over the next like six weeks same thing with think it was here yeah Right there
like we all knew it everyone knew it and I I have never felt like that ever again since that moment yeah well and what's funny is um if I remember correctly like defi summer mostly happened right here when eth was pretty sideways eth marked up and it and it and it killed defi summer for a hot second um and then it Consolidated again there's a continuation I think of some or uh actually Bitcoin ran like crazy while eth went sideways right here and Then you hit kind of the end of the year new year and
by the way look at this this is an election year um and yeah a lot of that uncertainty goes away and just it just went it just went bam you know just like absolutely nuts and and when you feel these breakouts happen this is on a weekly chart but on a daily chart you just if you look at charts all the time which most of the people watching this probably do you open your phone you don't have to look at the Chart you just see the price you feel you feel it happening and it's like
ah we're down today but then oh look how fast that recovery was or we're up like we're up today and it's kind of Relentless or it's a steady Edy and you just kind of feel this this bubbling up like it just it's just gradually gradually gradually bubbling up and there's this strength that you just feel in the market because you look at it every single day and then when that lid Blows you're just not surprised you're not surprised at all and it's it's time in the market to let you know what that feeling is like
I do not feel that in the market right now personally like I I feel a willingness to be patient but I don't feel like the lid's about to blow I feel if anything like just expecting more of the same over these next couple months would I like to start feeling that water to boil a little bit prior to maybe some um election Centric Resolution for the market yeah I'd love that but if we just nuke between now and the election it wouldn't surprise me cuz that's the opposite right like that's the that's the that's it
the water like emptying out you kind of feel it you can like feel the the liquidity in the market leaving you can feel pain or trimmers that exist from a macro perspective or things like the the fake jump blow up like like whatever that was like that's one of those types of Trimmers that's the opposite of what we were talking about so if you're patient and if you spend time in the market if you pay attention if you don't lose everything doing dumb stuff then you will be there in time to feel to feel when
it's real and that's that's when you start making aggressive moves that's when David and I are texting each other about random like projects that we think are interesting and like two weeks later they've doubled in price and some people Maybe you felt that on on in meme coins or some of these smaller metas but like those were small metas those are not big level metas in my opinion yeah I think that's right wise words from Ledger uh who is a wise man uh Ledger thank you for coming on the show and and walking through some
of these charts I couldn't have done without you my man yeah I appreciate you having me I like my my podcasting seal legs are uh not there right now yeah we gota we got to keep You sharp for when you eventually return will you ever return will ler C come back will up only come back I don't know I don't I I don't know in what formats but yeah I'll be around I mean it would be equal to all these mistakes I'm talking about for what we'll say like people have been in the market for
only a couple years or whatever equally stupid would be to have been here for what's it been David like seven Eight years and then just be like oh you know now that this is Major asset I'll just leave I just I just I just want to go I just want to go a little slower you know like I want to make more more measured moves um I have that has been the sentiment of the cohort that I've been in like I've been feeling it Ryan's been feeling it I know Anthony says Ono was just like
yo like you can't keep on just like Slamming your head into your screen for like six years in a row you need to have like a hobby or something uh you need to have like you know touch grass and and be real I moved fast for a long time like I'm I'm a I like to trade like I told you beforehand like I need in fact if I'm going to like cash out I need to be pretty a liquid because I just want to buy stuff like I want to trade if I'm liquid if I'm
overly liquid and um and Like this last year was this is pretty embarrassing but it's like one of the only times in my entire crypto life that I had long-term capital gains like uh like if I really never done this before for uh but it's because I like I I I I am best in kind of a swing trade type of format like longer longer than a week often times longer than 30 days but probably less than 90 days or 180 days not not going like completely degenerate or anything but Swinging between things are like
major ideas that I have um and so you know there were a couple of times where I had long-term capital gains but like when the Market's really hot I'm probably not like I'm going to be I'm going to be bouncing around a little bit um outside of minor portions of my portfolio but like I hardly traded at all between mid 2023 and mid 2024 like hardly at all and I just I kind of made some choices and those choices were fine and um and I had Long-term capital gains for the really the first time in
quite a while so hey congratulations on the longterm C gam brother yeah thanks other than like Angel Investments and stuff those tend to those are always long-term but like for liquid crypto to have long-term capital gains it's I has not happened to me a whole lot so I need it makes sense because the Traders have their moment during bull markets when there's High volatility and if anyone has experienced A bull market in crypto time compresses in Bull markets like one week in a bare Market is not the same as one week in the bull market
in in a week in a bull market like 17 things going to happen uh in the bare Market you know only a few things happen yeah and if you look at kind of where where charts are like it wasn't a bad decision to not do anything for a year because like we had Consolidated into last summer and we had a pretty Pretty great year and so I was pretty happy and um and so I actually took took some long-term capital gains and um and now I'm kind of in a let's see what's next type of
mode where I have flexibility to trade and and so yeah I mean yeah that's that's like the flip side of saying go slow but I want to continue to go slow or slower slowish but I'm definitely going to be around I guess to answer your question sorry to prolong the exit there no not at all and Also going slower I think that's what's happening to like that's what's happening to crypto like we're slowing down we're slowing down the ETFs are slower the FED is going to cut rates probably slower that's kind of my prediction is
like the fed's not going to Whiplash us anymore they learned their lesson uh I think everything is kind of going to slow down from like these these crack cocaine fouryear cycles and they're going to smooth out To you know some some some matcha some more sustainable forms of of caffeine I would say that's how I'm gonna going to phrase it works for me works for me as well ler thank you so much for coming on Bank list Nation you guys know the deal crypto is risky you can lose what you put in but nonetheless we
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