In a stunning move that has left Moscow reeling, Sweden has delivered a crippling blow to Russian forces, shifting the tides of the conflict in Ukraine. This unprecedented aid package from Sweden, NATO's newest member, marks a historic departure from its traditional stance of neutrality. What secret strategies and cutting-edge technologies has Sweden unveiled to support Ukraine?
How will this affect the balance of power in the region? Let’s delve into the dramatic developments that have sent shockwaves through the Kremlin and bolstered Ukraine’s fight for freedom. On May 29th, Sweden announced its 16th aid package to Ukraine.
Tellingly, this was primarily a military, rather than an economic or humanitarian, aid package. It is designed to create Russian casualties, which would have been unthinkable for Sweden a few years ago. Such aid is a departure from Sweden’s traditional foreign policy.
Until Putin decided to invade Ukraine, Stockholm observed a policy of neutrality dating back to the Napoleonic Wars. The last time Sweden entered a conflict was in the Swedish-Norwegian War of 1814. The Swedish public widely supported their country’s neutrality, and it was maintained during both World Wars.
As late as 2012, only 17% of Swedes expressed support for joining NATO. By 2021, the number increased to 46%. But Sweden was always wary of the threat from Russia.
The two countries fought the long and bitter Great Northern War in the early 18th century over influence in the Baltic Sea. Sweden lost the conflict and has been on guard against Russia ever since. As early as 1904, Sweden was patrolling the Baltic with submarines to protect its coastline.
That mission has given it more underwater experience in the Baltic than any other nation. The Gripen fighter was designed specifically to counter the threat from Russia. Even its radar system is designed to let it look toward Russian territory without flying in its direction.
Fear of potential Russian aggression has entered Swedish cultural consciousness. Some of the older locals on Gotland Island, one of the most important locations in the Baltic and the likeliest place in Sweden that Russia would attack, reported in 2015 that they would hear stories from their parents warning them that if they failed to finish their dinners, the Russians would get them. Back then, people on the island were divided over whether the Swedish military should increase its presence there.
No such divisions exist today. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine reawakened historical nightmares among the Swedish public and policymakers in Stockholm. Sweden announced its intention to join NATO a few months later and quickly became a partner to help Ukraine fend off the invasion.
Like Germany, Sweden reversed its historical aversion to providing lethal military aid. It began with providing weapons like anti-material weapons, air defenses, and light vehicles. The investments increased, and Sweden demonstrated early on that it was willing to go far in its proportional investment in money and in weaponry.
On the first anniversary of the war, Sweden said it would donate ten Leopard 2A5 tanks to Ukraine. Sweden’s latest aid package is worth $1. 23 billion.
To put that into perspective, Sweden’s total military spending in 2023 was $8. 75 billion. Meanwhile, Sweden’s total aid to Ukraine amounts to a little over $4 billion over the course of 16 packages since the invasion started.
Such a proportionally large expenditure demonstrates Stockholm’s threat perception. Russia’s recent successes have required Stockholm to step up its spending even more. The pace of Sweden’s separate aid packages also reflects Stockholm’s wariness, as several have been passed in the last few months – and they have significantly increased in size.
For example, in late February, Sweden announced a $682 million aid package, which was then its largest. The package included 10 CB 90 combat boats, 20 group boats, underwater weapons, $192 million worth of badly-needed artillery shells, RBS 70 man-portable air defense systems, anti-tank missiles, Carl Gustaf grenade launchers, hand grenades, and medical supplies. Earlier in May, Sweden passed aid to help Ukraine secure its energy supply, since this sector has been a particular target of Russian missiles and drones.
This aid will be spent on equipment like generators, transformers, and solar cells. It will also include necessary spare parts like electrical switches, cables, pumps, and pipes. The May 29th aid package was about twice the size of the February package.
It does not include donations of the JAS 39 Gripen fighter jet. Although Ukraine has expressed interest in this platform in the past and does not rule it out in the future, Kyiv wants to focus on implementing its F-16 program. Stockholm says that it is “still working on the possibility” of contributing the Gripen system later, but for now it is too much of an ask for Ukraine to divide itself between two new fighter jet programs.
Though it won’t donate fighter aircraft, the rest of the aid is substantial. Sweden’s Deputy Prime Minister, Ebba Busch, said that the package “consists of equipment that is at the top of Ukraine’s priority list. ” Maybe the most important contribution for the immediate term is in the form of additional 155mm artillery shells.
Sweden didn’t specify how many shells will be provided, but the new ammunition will help to swell Ukraine’s supply to well over two million rounds. This will ensure enough ammunition to keep Ukraine in the fight into 2025. The Swedes will also be donating RB 99-AMRAAM missiles, the equivalent of the AIM-120.
Sweden’s Ministry of Defense says that these missiles will be repurposed specifically to serve in ground-based anti-aircraft systems. Presumably they will be supplied for Ukraine’s NASAMS units. This is important, because Russia took to using its aviation to more effectively support its ground forces after Avdiivka fell, and the proper air support enabled Russian forces to make more rapid advances to the west.
Ukraine used its NASAMS and other air defense units to shoot down some of the Russian planes. More ammunition will check Russian aviation and force Moscow to be more cautious with its air power. Sweden will also be sending its entire fleet of PBV 302 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.
These have been retired from Swedish service, as the newer Combat Vehicle 90 replaced the PBV 302 in 2014. Stockholm thought it better to donate its older vehicles rather than keep them in storage. Sweden’s official announcement of the aid mentioned that the Ukrainian army was organizing several new brigades and needed armored vehicles for their infantry companies, a demand the PBV 302 will help to satisfy.
The PBV 302 is armed with a 20mm cannon mounted on a turret to the vehicle’s right side. The cannon is fed with drum magazines which can each hold 30 rounds. A 7.
62mm machine gun can be used as a secondary weapon. The PBV 302 has armor that can withstand 20mm rounds and weighs 12. 3 tons.
It comes with a crew of three – the driver, who also serves as a mechanic, the gunner, and the commander. The vehicle can carry up to eight soldiers in its landing compartment. Over 600 of these vehicles were produced between 1966 and 2014, but that is not the amount Ukraine will receive.
Much of the fleet was decommissioned from 2005 onward. By 2018, there were at least 180 still in service in various degrees of readiness. These vehicles are likely the ones Sweden will now hand over to Ukraine.
The vehicles are all set to be be repaired and modernized to at least some extent before the transfer. The remaining spare parts and maintenance equipment for these vehicles will be donated as part of the package, as will the 20mm shells for the onboard cannons. The PBV 302 will not be the only land vehicles Sweden donates as part of its latest package.
The aid also includes surplus fuel transport vehicles in use by the Swedish Armed Forces. Previously donated Swedish material will continue to get upkeep through this aid package. Stockholm also intends to help Kyiv with its command and control through donations of terminals with subscriptions for satellite communications.
To help with training and military doctrine, the Swedish Defense Research Agency will assist the Ukrainian armed forces in creating their own defense research institute. There are also a number of financial support provisions in the package. Most importantly, Sweden will make investments to ensure that Ukraine can get aid on a large scale on a rapid basis.
Sweden will permit all of the weapons provided by this package to be used against targets on Russian soil if that is what Ukraine finds proper. Stockholm also claims that it will be able to replenish all of the ammunition and equipment it is sending to Ukraine through new investments. The most notable contribution in the package came in the form of two SAAB ASCC 890 airborne early warning and control planes.
Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonsson said that these aircraft would have the most significant impact on Ukraine’s air defense network. These planes will better allow Ukraine to identify and track incoming missiles and drones. They can also spot targets of opportunity for offensive operations.
Training Ukrainian air force personnel to fly these planes is also part of the Swedish aid package. Stockholm’s decision to donate these aircraft was a significant step beyond the monetary cost. These were the only two AWACS aircraft in Sweden’s fleet.
The Swedes admitted that the donation of these planes and many other provisions in the package meant a temporary vulnerability in their territorial defense. However, they decided to take what Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called a “calculated risk. ” Perhaps the words of his Danish Counterpart, Mette Frederiksen came to mind.
Early in 2024, she pointed out that it was better for European countries to sacrifice their own arsenals temporarily to ensure Russia’s defeat far from their own homelands, rather than having to potentially use those weapons against an emboldened Putin far closer to home. Sweden plans to make up for the shortage of command and control planes by purchasing additional S 106 GlobalEye aircraft. This is SAAB’s newest AWACS aircraft and entered into service in 2020.
Sweden also insists that it has plans in place to replenish all of the ammunition and other equipment it will lose once they arrive in Ukraine. Sweden intends to do this by increasing its defense spending. In September 2023, Stockholm announced its intention to increase its military budget by 28% for 2024.
Additional increases will come in 2025 and 2026. These increases will put Sweden over the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defense by appropriations. The budget increases will also likely make Sweden an enduring and reliable partner for Ukraine.
Stockholm has indeed already announced that its partnership with Ukraine will be for the long haul. On May 23rd, Prime Minister Kristersson said that Sweden would be providing Ukraine with $7 billion in aid over the course of three years to repel the invasion. The package released to Ukraine the following week was only the first of multiple packages to come, and those packages will likely get bigger as time goes on.
Thanks to the increases in Sweden’s military budget over the coming years, the country will be in position to deliver on this planned aid. The Ministry of Defense officially announced major planned investments in artillery systems and transport aircraft as part of the domestic defense spending program. These investments will put Sweden in a position to produce and deliver the weapons and ammunition Ukraine needs in the coming years.
But how does Sweden’s recent and coming aid impact Ukraine’s ability to win the war of attrition? In December 2023, a report by the Estonian Ministry of Defense indicated that Ukraine could win the war in 2025 if it killed or maimed 100,000 Russian troops in 2024. While Russia has the ability to call many more soldiers than that to the colors, these people need to be trained properly and then assigned to a cohesive unit if they are to be effective on the battlefield.
The Estonians estimate that Russia can properly train 260,000 troops a year. This is sufficient to sustain an army of 420,000 in Ukraine. The Estonians advised Ukraine to prioritize creating so many Russian casualties that the demand for manpower would in turn send troops to the front with even less training.
It would be a vicious cycle that Russia, even with its much greater amount of available manpower than Ukraine, would not be capable of meetig. The Estonians estimated that if Ukraine met the 100,000 benchmark, it could reduce Russian training capacity to 80,000 properly-trained troops per year. The rest would be ineffective cannon fodder.
Sweden’s donation, especially with the new artillery shells, will help Ukraine to achieve this objective. Since Ukraine killed or maimed an average of 172,000 Russian troops in each of the first two years of the war, this seems like it will be achievable, particularly with help from countries like Sweden. There is another side to this equation, though.
Ukraine must minimize its own losses, and that’s where Sweden’s recent aid package might make the most impact in the long run. Estonia’s Ministry of Defense said that it was just as important to level up the training Ukrainian troops received from their Western allies. Over 100,000 Ukrainian troops have been trained by their Western allies since the war began.
The training is not equal, though. While most Western militaries have basic training courses that take ten weeks, and then several months for more specialized tasks like demolition or sniping, most of the Ukrainian troops in the war have had only five week courses. Ukrainian troops have also sometimes complained that they have received improper training from their NATO allies, which have been influenced too heavily by the War on Terror, rather than the high-intensity, state-based warfare that is taking place in Ukraine.
This lack of adequate training has also ensured that Ukraine suffered about 200,000 casualties in the first two years of the war. Of particular importance is better training for Ukraine’s officers. The Estonians recommended that foreign trainers should subject Ukrainian staff officers to a ten-week intensive training course.
That way, Ukraine would be able to conduct proper operations at the brigade level. The current Ukrainian military can’t do this at the moment, which is why most operations in the war have taken place at the platoon or company level. This approach to warfare has helped to keep the Ukrainian armed forces nimble, but it has also had severe limitations.
The Estonian Ministry of Defense pointed out these limitations: “The effective span of control of a brigade for offensive operations is therefore approximately two companies. The result is that the [Ukrainian military] plans and executes operations with a horizon of exploitation limited to approximately 1,200 meters. ” This assessment may have been one of the more understated reasons why the offensive in Zaporizhzhia last year failed, even though Ukraine was able to penetrate two of Russia’s formidable defensive lines there.
It could not translate those gains into a bigger breakthrough because of Russian mines and improved artillery fire, but also because it simply could not effectively come up with the necessary amount of troops to conduct operations at the level required. Russia was able to summon reinforcements with helicopter support that halted the momentum of Ukraine’s troops. Being able to bring more of them forward in a cohesive operation could have made the difference in generating the necessary momentum.
Unfortunately for Kyiv, this was not available, but Sweden might be starting to change that. Sweden’s assistance in creating a defense research institute for Ukraine could help with training its staff officers, preventing casualties, and ensuring more comprehensive operations at the brigade level, although this will take time to see results. It is time Putin thinks he has on his side, but Sweden’s coming aid sends the message that he might be wrong.
Ukraine is well on its way to killing or maiming 100,000 Russians this year, even though its forces have been slowly giving ground. The end of Ukraine’s shell hunger, partially with the ammunition Sweden is set to deliver, will help ensure Ukraine stays in the fight for the war of attrition, and can get past the contentious American presidential election. Sweden has emerged from over 200 years of military neutrality with surprising speed, and while there might be doubts about the feasibility of continuing to aid Ukraine in the United States, in Sweden there are none.
Sweden doesn’t have the luxury of an ocean to separate it from its old enemy. For Stockholm, it is better to defeat Russia on foreign soil than to potentially need to defeat it on soil or in waters closer to home. Even proportionally large investments and temporary depletion of domestic arsenals have not dissuaded Sweden’s leaders from this opinion.
Putin may hope that many of the countries that oppose him now will become exhausted with Ukraine over time and lose interest in continuing the effort. For deep historical reasons, Sweden is unlikely to be one of those countries, and that’s important because it might be proportionally small, but it has a strong defense industry. It will also look bad if Sweden, the newest member of NATO and also one of its smaller participants, were to continue supporting Ukraine at significant cost to itself while the others did nothing.
Sweden’s support helps to ensure a broader European effort that can continue onward even if American aid falters. Sweden's historic decision to step up and deliver a significant blow to Russia through its aid package marks a new chapter in the conflict. As NATO's newest member, Sweden's support highlights the unwavering commitment of Ukraine's allies to ensure regional stability and security.
What impact will Sweden's aid have on the war's dynamics? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: Ukraine is not alone in its fight for freedom. What do you think of the support Sweden has lent to Ukraine throughout the war and how it will affect Kyiv’s ability to win the war of attrition?
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