My Guide to Becoming a Memecoin Millionaire - Raoul Pal | E96

So the banana went from the table to your sweater you predicted the banana Zone which is crypto prices going bananas it's been 5 months now still nothing still nothing is the banana Zone still in the room with us I guess we'll find out today R pal is back with his crypto thesis in the banan zone Playbook R is on a mission to help as many people Achieve Financial Freedom faster in this ever evolving crypto Market are you Still confident about the Great Soul trade for this cycle the question is whether the next Chosen One outperforms

it so significantly that you're forced to take that trade generally it should just continue higher I don't want to give price targets because it doesn't happen there my fault but you can probably say that Bitcoin memes are just for the fun of it it's all about trading attention stupidity and it's also about foma the Question is is this cycle going to be the cycle of mean coins yes why do you go out there and take the risk of being publicly wrong on something like the banana Zone that is everybody's dreams and Hope it's [ __

] terrifying things are so [ __ ] for so many people people can't afford a house they're not having kids who are not living in their own place I either have to share a place all of that stuff showing how stressed people are Asking them to save and make 10% Returns on the S&P 500 for the next 20 years just ain't going to cut it and so I want to make sure that if I make money out of this nobody turns around to me and says oh why didn't wait R do subscribe to the mecoin

super cycle thesis smoking chicken fish in the church we don't refer to billions we refer to buan even he's laughing he'll be laughing for 10 minutes it's just [Music] Brilliant 75% of you that watch this channel frequently do not subscribe if you like this show and think it provides value to you in your Crypton investing Journey can you please please please do me a favor and subscribe to this channel hit the like button and leave a comment below it helps this channel more than you can imagine the bigger the channel the bigger the guests and

the better the conversation thank you this conversation is supported by Jupiter the most used Decentralized trading platform on Solana and the largest Dao in the world three a scalable layer one blockchain that's fast secure and affordable built by previous Facebook developers and that delivers the benefits of web 3 with the ease of web 2 and mental an etherum layer to that build two products I particularly like fbtc which enables you to borrow and lend Bitcoin in Defi and me eth or meth one of the largest eth liquid saking protocols that by the way Just launched

its token called cook so 3 hours and a half podcast this morning still fresh yeah and tired but I'm good you arrived here Monday or Sunday still jet lagged yeah Monday woke up in the middle of the night paced around my hotel room fell asleep for an hour and then immediately had to go to uh to go into a three and a half hour podcast and then you brought the time forward so I was going to have a siesta and you ruined That as well so it's your fault I brought some um some wine here

to what have we got apologies so we have um an Old Vine r that our partner div Labs selected specifically for you 2014 on their board so I should get nice wine from them absolutely so it's not only a partner of when shift happens but you're under board why um it's delicious by the way I not only do I love wine and also love Um Dave and and Janna who co-founded it but I can see web 3 for me has a lot of advantage in loyalty wine has this weird world where you'll sell a wine

as a producer and then it kind of disappears Into The Ether for 10 years and then somebody drinks it of which you have no idea who they are and web 3 by you know tokenizing the label or the the um tokenized cork essentially allows you to then know Where the wine goes who owns it and when it gets drunk which gives the grower a lot of information but us as consumers tokenization can create behavor AAL incentives so it's not incentivizing you well it is incentiv incentivizing you to drink but also to record the fact that

you've opened it because then the wine grower knows that you like rioka and you buy this kind of price range and drink at this kind of age they now know that You're their customer and they can get rid of all the middlemen and incentivize you directly by giving you offers or special promotions stuff like that that's Point number one so I think that is interesting I've been exploring loyalty and that kind of web three world of consumer incentives also the fact that whyne there a logistical business and you know wine spoils over Time you need

to know where it's been for Providence and price when you're dealing with Fine Wines you want know how it's stored who stored it me I buy tons of wine in the Cayman Islands and you might spend $2 $300 a bottle and it's ruined because yes the grower might be amazing but you have no idea who's had it since this way we can start proving things out on chain also it allows people to maybe Manage inventory better where you can tokenize the inventory so there's a bunch of different things I think are really interesting for all

industries that Deen is doing that I want to see succeed you mentioned uh the different people involved uh in the kind of like wine supply chain obviously we're the the kind of end consumer and you said U we're incentivized to drink so so some sort so there's actually an NFC there do You have your phone I do I have my devant app as well so there's an NFC there and you can basically claim your tokens uh for drinking this wine I opened the bottle before through my app and um you should be able to just

tap the NFC and then claim your my app um but yes I just tap it and then it claims it I think you can also just uh just tap the phone and you're going to have a let's see yeah there we go straight into my App haven't got very good internet but yes it'll load up it then knows that we've opened this and then there's information that's stored on chain now it doesn't only apply to wine if this technology works it applies to so many things where you can break the barrier between producer and consumer

so everything can come direct which means it's cheaper you can be rewarded for loyalty directly what you do could be clothing could be all Sorts of things but you know wine is a very good start how are you doing part from being tired great so you were on on Diary of theu this morning yeah Steven Bartlet how was that for an experience you know bizar it wasn't wildly different excuse me to our conversation it was different in terms of what we talked about but a similar kind of style so it was a Freer Ranging long

and very open discussion so you know I don't mind being kind of brutally honest so it was actually it was good it was just it was just a nice conversation and before I knew three and a half hours had gone actually spent uh one or two weeks three years ago with Steven in b he remembers you I mentioned you he go oh yeah in and actually he was starting to become not big yet but he was very focused on the UK Market yeah and he was Doing a bunch of football players and um I was

actually kind of looking at okay interesting like you're doing a I mean there was Joe Rogan right and there was Lex fredman but 2021 not big yet Lex fredman and I was like okay I'm going to watch kind of closing what he's doing because he seems to be onto something and uh in the next year he kind of blew up and then I realized oh man people don't really understand podcasting if you do it the Right way it's a massive opportunity and it's something that uh that I was thinking I mean obviously he's huge right

and doing health and business and everything I was thinking if I do something similar I have kind of two models what he's doing but also Lex fredman like very deep conversations and uh if I apply this into crypto could be something really interesting because of the leverage of crypto right and so a year and a half Later I just thought at at bottom of the bare market after F Crush I was thinking then that's the moment to start to do something similar so there is definitely a big um influence from Steven and from Lex as

you could see I was invited for the Lex fredman podcast over the pandemic and I couldn't leave the Cayman Islands and that's before Lex really blew up but he was starting to get big and he's like well I only do in person I'm like well I can't get to Austin he's Like well can't do it then and then I I wrote to him recently he said look I'm happy to come now never heard back I mean if you grow the it's all a social proof game right yeah if you grow the socials which are starting

to do really well especially on the YouTube side right I mean Twitter is huge already but on the YouTube side then you you might get back on the his is rather especially if you go on Steven and then they start to see yeah because Steven obviously is A real Vision fan but he'd also seen me on Tom Bilu absolutely you know that's why I was think all one step from another yeah and I did Tim Ferris long time ago as well you get there I'll okay Lex Lex and Joe next so at the end of

our conver So today we're going to do something very different last time was more kind of like macro and everything today is going to be much more crypto focused because it's kind of like The Logical way to follow up on the last conversation we had uh which at the end of our last conversation I asked you what your biggest prediction for the next 12 month was and you picked up one of the bananas that we had on the table this is a real Vision merch go to the real Vision merch store this is a Banana's

un embroidered top so the banana went from the table to your to sweater Um and basically meant that you predicted the banone which is crypto price is going bananas it's been five months now still nothing still nothing the price of Bitcoin hasn't moved much no is the bananaz OWN still in the room with us look I think it is I mean it is definitely it's room in the room um it's whether it's a stale dead banana or not look I don't think anything's changed you know I I produced a huge piece of research in global

macro investor this Month my research service and everything points to the same thing liquidity is coming now you can see it in the stock market the nasdaq's going up but crypto's been heavy and I don't know for what particular reason it's been heavy I mean are we going to have to wait until the election maybe it's something to do with that I don't know for some reason it's heavier than other assets um but nothing in my work suggests otherwise um on the asset Management side on exponential age Asset Management xam we hear the same thing

and I hear it from everybody I speak to is people are waiting for price to go up before they come back in so in this weird world where price is flat that doesn't doesn't bring anybody in so something has to change stock market's going up tech stocks are going up liquidity is going up China's starting to print money the US are cutting right I mean what more do You need so it's a matter probably of just patience feels like uh 2020 2020 there was all this conversation about covid Crash Bitcoin should be like gold but

it got wrecked then it took a couple of months right and it always takes a bit longer longer until almost everybody abandons and then boom it goes up so quickly that people who were not in kind of miss the boat feels like it's kind of similar this time around again the market likes to Exhibit pain and it's when people get bored or people lose focus or people think oh you know I'm going to go and find something else is when it all goes off it always happens this way and yeah 2020 was like that last

year was like that people forget last year was almost identical in fact when you over the charts of ethereum Now versus ethereum then Bitcoin now versus Bitcoin then last year it was Identical so it should just continue higher now it's correcting today but you know this is short-term noise but generally it should keep going up and everything in macro says it should keep going up so let's see I had a conversation with Kia Wong from Alliance Dao couple of weeks ago in New York and he said that the so-called Al season manone is kind of

the same right can happen only if two conditions are met the first one is there is a limited Amount of tokens which we don't have anymore because there is 10,000 new tokens uh created every day on p. fun so that's kind of like this first condition is kind of like over forever there is a lot of tokens and then the second condition is more liquidity which when I recorded with him in August it was not and now it started already right do you think he's enough I think his first point is wrong the scarcity is

not the tokens the Scarcity is the attention there's only a limited amount of attention there's 500 million active crypto wallets of how many active people in crypto how many active people in meme coins so right now let's say there is a million active people in meme coins a million people have to put their attention and what they tend to do is focus attention with other people's attention so Morad tweeted about a bunch of tokens They all go up because everyone's desperate for the banana Zone and they want you know so attention moves around so even

though there 10,000 none of those get attention the real game is capturing the attention so then if you capture the attention and then the liquidity continues to kick in I think China's got another press conference coming out shortly tomorrow or something else um to talk about yet more measures and we've Got everybody else to start cutting rates and injecting liquidity well then the attention focuses tokens start going up other people come in they start chasing mean coins then people go out the risk curve well if that dog tokens going up then I'm going to buy

this dog token that starts pushing up and then the game is played it always plays out the same way so you're kind of attention is still a bit split but You're kind of seeing who the winners are going to be in the mem coin cycle obviously there'll be new ones so the attention is is focusing and now you need just the other Catalyst to just push it and then everything blows yeah absolutely so if you pay enough attention even in these very boring phases you can see as quickly as there is some kind of Hope

even if it's just hope what's going up first yeah and what's being bought when there is a Crash and it probably a good indicator on what's going to outperform in a in a buun and in a banana Zone when it's coming even if it's in another couple of month or that's right yeah you've kind of getting a a sign of what's truly strong what's actually captured attention uh you said I mean the US um cut rates right where do you see the rates going before the inevitable inflation catches up again and we reenter in a

liquidity TI turning phase again look at it's a very tough call my view has always been that rates are probably coming down to 2% because that's the everything code that's the trend rate of GDP growth and you need to kind of bring it down to that so my view is they'll try and get rates down as much as possible but the econom is really quite strong um so will they be able to bring it down enough well it doesn't Matter so 2016 rates the FED raised rates once in 16 and then just went on hold

they didn't add liquidity the Chinese added tons as did I think England after brexit that was enough to cause the 16 17 Mega cycle so it doesn't require the us and it doesn't require rates cuz rates aren't liquidity liquidity is a separate thing it doesn't matter I have that in a few of the different parts because it's one of your favorite sentences right Yeah just try and get rid of the noise so many people mid curve everything over argue everything you think crypto goes to 10 to 15 trillion this cycle yeah I think that's that's

reasonable and I get that really simply again in an idiot's way I just take the market cap of crypto put it in a log regression Channel and it gets you there you do the same with Bitcoin back out as maybe a Bitcoin dominance of 50% 40% you kind of get there it's like you Look at the wallet growth you kind of get to those numbers so it's like yeah that makes bad sense so we are today at 2.2 trillion which means 5 to 7x in growth yeah if that really happens what does it mean for

BTC eth and solar um generally speaking in a normal Market you would see Soul outperform eth outperform Bitcoin that's usually what happens um and so I don't know because I Don't want to give price targets because you know you get in that stupid game of people then believe the price targets and then it doesn't happen and then their vision of their future selves you know that Porsche they were going to buy is now ruined and it's my my fault because it didn't get to the price it's all nonsense but you could probably say that Bitcoin

triples quadruples from here something like that and salana Probably eight X's plus you know that kind arrange and eat somewhere in the middle you have a banana on your sweater and it's even written the banana zone right it is it's even written the banana Zone just in case you didn't in case didn't get the memo yeah when when do when you have a tattoo learn that's the lunar learn from your friend's mistake yeah never why do you go out there and take the risk of being public publicly wrong On something like the banana Zone that

is everybody's dreams and hope look it's [ __ ] terrifying it's really uncomfortable for me to do it I need to do it yes of course it helps from business and blah blah blah but I don't need to take those risks most people don't and I do it because I've been in this space for a long time I've got more macro experience than pretty much anybody else And things are so [ __ ] for so many people that we we talked about last time that people can't afford a house you know the average Millennial is

35 years old they can't afford a house ly you know they're not having kids I mean the rate of having kids is plummeting the number of people who are who are not living in their own place I have to share a place um all of that stuff it's just showing how stressed people are and asking them to save and make 10% Returns On the S&P 500 for the next 20 years just ain't going to cut it and so I can see how stressed people are people are getting polarized and I want to make sure that

if I make money out of this nobody turns around to me and says well why didn't we oh it's the Insiders it's that I did that before you know with the crash in 2008 2012 we all made money and people like what the [ __ ] a why didn't we know About it and then it was like well why didn't we make money out of it and I'm like I'm not going to do that so I have to publicly take a lot of risks by trying to explain to people the opportunity how to navigate it

whil also making sure they understand there are no certainties and that I am taking a risk by doing this and and my own money's on the line in fact 100% of my liquid net worth and all of the businesses that I've built doesn't matter if we get the Banana Zone to me or not as long as the adoption of the technology continues because the value will go up but the banana zone is that point there it becomes emotional because you really can make a difference to your financial situation just by doing nothing it's one of

those rare moments I was speaking to Steven Bart about this I'm like some people if they get this right they start with enough Capital there's no point even starting a business when you're Invest in crypto you can literally not do any of the [ __ ] that you and I do you could just buy some tokens and go traveling for five 10 years and come back Rich right and we just spend so much time around this space you don't need to do any of it um so yeah I want to help people I want them

to get to the other side uh I want to be able to change people's lives and get out of the Trap that everybody's in now I'm not doing that Trying to be hubristic or think that I'm some great hero figure I just don't want somebody to come to me and say well why didn't we know how could you be wrong on your bananas on tesis look markets a funny things you know they don't always do what you want and maybe the Harris Administration gets in and they crack even further down on crypto and that slows

progress further And then something else happens negative and it just slows it down maybe liquidity doesn't come in and for some reason we managed to finance the debts because GDP growth is high enough and so suddenly we get less liquidity than we expected doesn't seem to be the case because of China it's so big and has such a problem um and Europe is slowing down very fast so I don't see it but there's always a probability so you just have to assess it as you go Because certainly within all of the predictions that I have

many of them don't come to pass the idea is that overall it comes to pass so do we get a banana zone now later I mean we talked about this last time I said I don't know but it will come at some point if it doesn't come is the space going to collapse no you need liquidity to tighten for that to happen so in which case it's a holding pattern or a slower grind higher okay I can live with that a Collapse of the market based around liquidity suddenly going up okay that's a whole different

risk because then you're wrong wrong wrong uh in terms of timing so we'll wait and see so hopefully the banana zone is coming and if we think it's coming people naturally want to understand how to play it and you've been very open about your position you wrote my core crypto bets main game s outperformer gaining adoption s Memes smoking chicken fish the Church of smoking chicken fish and Dodge long-term Investments culture nfts still building portfolio but the mix of ex copy be punks Apes AK and manymore I won't have the Best Bets and not the

worst but I think Risa just stud is decent memes make change in time then then we had Michael sailor answering Bitcoin misses you ra let's dive into each of your position and understand your thought process so Obviously it's not price targets and this the best yeah it's really for for people who are you know maybe they watch the first episode or maybe they watch Steven Bartlet this morning and they're like okay now I understand the key concept cep I want to take some positions why do you think obviously you choose some bets what's your kind

of framework right okay so we start with the don't [ __ ] this up thesis that I talk a lot about which is the majority Of your Capital should be in the top three to five tokens so what I do personally is I then look at all of the price action between the top three salana eth Bitcoin look at the cross rates and is the strongest one it has been salana and I've had that bet for a while and it's been the strongest Trend so that is why I have salana salana is has a good

Community great Ux good Tech it's fast it's cheap and it has had some breakthroughs in chain usage mem coins being one of them um the ecosystem is deepening and broadening much like eth was doing this time last cycle so okay that's a great place to park a larger amount of capital cuz it's relatively safe so and you worked out really well until now yeah are you still confident about the Great Soul trade for this cycle yes I am I'm sure it'll do Absolutely fine I mean I see nothing but success going on on that chain

uh and positive vibes the question is is whether the next chosen one out before performs it so significantly that you're forced to take that trade which is much riskier so it's not the bet that I would ask people to do full size and for me it's sweet and it's not because I'm on the foundation but it's because because I could have been talking about this Forever because it was on the foundation but I didn't I waited till I saw the confirmation price action which was this General outperformance started versus salana eth Bitcoin and then every

single token started breaking out and at that point I felt comfortable saying listen I think this may be the chosen one sure there'll be other stuff that outperforms it so the fact that you on the S Foundation board is not linked to the fact that you Think it's one going to be one of the outperformer it's kind of look yeah yeah it is I'm interesting I'm a mercenary when it comes to capital and because I've got so many followers I cannot sh something because I happen to on the board and I want the number to

go up I can't do that so I was very careful about it until the price was proving itself and then I could say listen the proof is here it's outperforming everything and I think you know this is Going to get adoption because of the reasons and you had Adan on who's fantastic absolutely um and you can see the technology and how they're breaking the internet down to its component parts and rebuilding the stack from scratch now clever Tech doesn't win adoption wins absolutely so we're seeing the active wallets going up we've seen stuff it's early

we haven't got a big breakthrough use case yet yeah actually flew to San Francisco did a podcast with A bunch of people there and AD then you was one of them and I fell there and kind of around that same time you started to be more vocal and I was like like [ __ ] I don't have more cash what do I do yeah then I said hey guys we should do a partnership with the podcast and it's about to happen so I was like so I was like I need to do something about that

because otherwise I don't have the in my portfolio the outperformer gaining Adoption right so but yeah absolutely I felt there's something when you have these people in front of you that just completely opens your mind and your eyes right and you're like oh man like and look sui is hard to understand at first when I started I'm like look we know they're all smart people but they're just Technical and at the time they hadn't developed the character of like these five superheroes because each of the Five Founders are very different and what we're finding is

different people are different communicators to different markets and adony is more Crypton native bit more Degen a bit more understanding um I think Sam is like the young surfer dude you know the CTO and so he plays well Evan is like the older wizard that nobody quite understands what he's talking about you know everyone plays a different role Within it uh so it takes a while for people to grasp what's going on but I got it as you know I like to extrapolate everything down to its lowest common denominator a meme the left curve right

curve and basically it was built for three and a half billion people in Facebook that's what I thought when I was in front I was this yeah it's as simple as that and what they're doing is breaking apart all the component parts Of the web storage everything else and rebuilding it for web 3 I'm sure some of those things won't get traction and some will get tremendous traction but built for three and a half billion people that's all we need to know because the rest of the tech is struggling with scale and this doesn't okay

I think the same was like I'm literally in front of one of the guys who was building Libra I ask him why do you think Libra failed he answers now he's in crypto they were in Facebook they understand web 2 they're now in web 3 like there is all the components there I mean at least many components there that make sense if you dump down everything on who could uh don't forget what they built was so powerful that they got shut down by the World Bank yeah the uh the fed the ECB I mean they

got shut down by everybody and uh Ian right ad was like yeah he has a massive chip on the shoulder because it didn't Work out right and so now he wants to prove that they're able with Su to make something that really works which is very bullish obviously you join the board of the S Foundation when you probably get thousands of advisory requests per year what's so special about the S network prices went up right or was starting to go up that made you want to join the three rocket ship So I was asked to

um by somebody I really really respect in the space and I understood why because I'm in the Cayman Islands and it's Cayman Islands Foundation you want physical presence and I'm Crypton native so it's like okay this makes sense because a lot of people have kind of [ __ ] Cayman directors um but I'd followed the Libra story I'd written about it I'd done podcasts on it I thought it was Incredible and I was not going to join any token because I knew that I have a an outsid impact because of my follower base and stuff

like that and so I had to be very careful and reputationally very careful um I didn't want something that was going to be crappy implode or anything else it had to be a really big project that was had a high probability of doing well or at least being in with a Chance the downside of obviously is it's a low Float um because there was a lot of investor interest in early days so I knew there was going to be a bit of that and I knew that the team didn't yet understand community and web 3

and the was learnings but I just thought that if anything was going to have a chance of succeeding it was going to be this now could it have been another token maybe but this one was so obvious because the team and the story that I Thought I could risk myself going on the board um and so it wasn't really necessarily the Journey of being given tokens to be on a board it was actually just see how it works what's it like to launch a big layer one and build an ecosystem because the understanding for me

will give me a lot of other understandings about investing and other stuff in how this space works so really it was it was the journey I Wanted to go on and even on the podcast ad actually says that he says yeah ra spent a lot of time and didn't really understand directly but understood more and more with time what we're trying to build why we such a good Tech and so on and so forth so definitely what he say is completely confirms what you're saying is s next Soul you know the comparisons from a price

perspective probably it's actually mirroring soul from the last cycle I Mean we do myself and uh Julian Bell do this chart and it's kind of exactly mirroring Sol the last cycle so it's the same kind of adoption curve going on is it the next soul I think it's different it's just a different beast and that's good cuz we're not just a look alike you know cheaper faster two is just a whole different foundational infrastructure for the internet and salana is this kind of more closed perfect machine and they're Just different beasts I think um and

we'll see over time so I don't think I just think basically forget the is one flipping the other or anything else I just think suie ends up in the top 10 and salana ends up in the top three it's just simple as that how could you be wrong on your sweet disis adoption and we probably won't even know because people would just if we start going into the banana Zone part of the Cycle people just buy an old [ __ ] and and then it'll it'll move it will move anyway if it's one of the

chosen ones adoption will be doing this and price will be doing this right and that's why you get the correction of the down 90% in the next cycle because then price has to come back down to below adoption and it's at this point you then prove has this really got adoption or is this [ __ ] mhm and so We can't tell now you know even at the foundation level without saying anything on the foundation sure you allocate Capital to people building in the ecosystem are they going to succeed who the hell knows so the

it has to be the proof in the pudding and if we don't manage it then we are to blame we've got the tech we have the people and so if we don't allocate Capital correctly or we don't Communicate message correctly then it's our fault yeah something for people to kind of keep in mind is a extremely risky play probably going to go up a lot outperform Soul if we if Market go up like crazy but what happened to Soul last cycle what happened to e previous cycle down 97% and still survived but that's when you

get that is the to test right that's the signal that's been der risked and that's why Soul suddenly Became a drisk asset because it got down to eight bucks everyone was it's terrible activity was still high they started launching Bonk and other stuff and before you know it it's going up and out performing and that's like okay Lindy effect this is proven not to die absolutely so something that people who are bit maybe Rovers could do is watch this cycle watch three try to not for more in see what Happens in the next crash and

then see if it's kind of staying alive what I did last cycle with salana owned a bit M just a small amount I bought it too late I bought it like 180 went up to over 280 then came all the way down to 8 you know and I kept it I didn't sell it but because it was on my radar screen because I knew it was interesting and then CU I cared I was looking at the charts of the bottom and I can see it was bottoming and I managed To get back in much earlier

than anybody else apart from a few people Chris benis and a few others because of that so don't put yourself off from owning s um Sal um sui if you're more risk averse but own a bit enough that it stays on your radar screen and enough that you can wear the down 97 and you'll take that as interesting information of which to make a more informed bigger bet if it survives and does well so last time on this podcast you Said you were ask you about mem coins right and you said I'm a bit less

interested in mcoin than previously because I'm more interested in nfts yeah meanwhile in the last few months mem coins have captured the meat of the Mind share and seems it seems that now people are realizing that mcoins will be the main play of this cycle like nfts were last cycle knowing this I mean obviously we're going to talk about your two meme Coent positions but knowing this have you reviewed your stance on and interest on mem coin versus nfts the two different things one is a trading thing and the other one is long-term wealth accumulation

so with nfts I'm buying highend art that got discounted but the most culturally relevant artists in all of digital art x copy be and there's a bunch of others that go With that but those two are the ogs of the OG space price have come down eth price had come down so you're getting the same effect the Lindy effect of the market testing is x copy valuable or is it [ __ ] well [ __ ] me there's a lot of this stuff trading at high prices right now and it's like okay there you go

there's virtually no be for sale virtually nothing there's like five things under the price of 20 e or 30 eth now so you're like interesting you can See what's happening supplies all being taken out and prices St to Rise um but that bet is really a 10- year plus bet like you would do with art memes are just for the fun of it it's all about trading attention that we talked about before it's about it's about speculative frenzy it's about fun it's about stupidity it's about being left curve um and it's also about fomo absolutely

because it's horrific that everybody online and this is everyone online post The I've made 100x oh suddenly I'm worth 20 million and I did it from a $10 bet you're like why is it not me right the stupidity now it doesn't say and here's the 99 people out of 100 who all lost their asses and do any of that but it happens to all of us so the way of averting that this is the whole duck don't [ __ ] this up thesis is put 10% so you can be that person that side of your

personality and not screw it up we Talked about you know how you got it wrong before by getting that part of your personality to become your whole portfolio before you know you [ __ ] up but this way do subscribe to the mcoin super cycle thesis yeah why I mean I know you wrote a a tweet thread three or four years ago three years ago about exponential age and this is basically like one of the best kind of embodiment of the Exponential age and kind of like the stupidity and all that stuff right so yeah

and my whole pin tweet thread is about yeah exactly this one and it's about culture it's about I think mad was dead right the belonging online wanting be part of something that hopes and dreams of making money all of that is in this space it's wildly speculative as nfts were it's all the same thing it's the same psychology it's the same early Staging uh testing of tech that will be used for different things um and so this is the early stage speculators have tested defi they've tested nfts they've tested tokens themselves they've tested icos they've

tested um fungible tokens you know based around more ethereal things like attention retail have speculated and tested things and stuff that hasn't worked like like Um um like Terror with the stable coin algorithmic stable coin didn't work okay so the so these ret investors are doing all the testing and these things will morph every cycle into different things so is this cycle going to be the cycle of mcoins yes yeah why because it's bring going to bring in every 23y old 22y old and they're going to have fun doing it because they understand memes and

some will get really rich stupid rich and others will completely lose Their asses and they'll go and go what did I do wrong this is the Kevin of the previous cycle and many others and they'll go you know what I want learn about this hope and then you go through hopefully hopefully you learn something you were vocal about with uh last time but your main dog coin now for now and subject to change let's say that out loud is Dogecoin yeah why the chart is so [ __ ] good it just every every four years

at the banana Z Period it does this huge wedge does nothing does nothing does nothing and then explodes okay so most people in the meme space will go yeah but other things will explode more fine I don't have time to go through every single Community figure out what's getting traction what the number of holders are how many Diamond hands are doge is an internationally recognizable brand there is a chance a reasonable chance that Elon Musk builds a stupid Department in the US government which is the department of government efficiency which he calls Doge I mean

he puts the meme with the [ __ ] dog and obviously he's building a payments platform he's getting the money transmitter licenses what's standing in his way of using does and international payments which would be very useful because then I can sell something to somebody in Nigeria and we don't need dollars or anything else Doge change of government you know I wouldn't be surprised if those does not explode so it's a low risk way of playing the mean coin cycle um so you know I've got a balanced portfolio of one risky one and one less

risky one Dodge is your soul of meme coins yes and then you say but like most people in this space will say yeah but why are you going for Dodge when you can buy we or popcat or anything that's Going to outperform you have one of them right yeah uh that is called smoked chicken fish AKA s CF and I mean before I was when I was mentioning mimon I was laughing because I was just imagining the face of this smoking chicken fish right and it's AB Ian one of is absurd one of the ultimate

Alpha mcoin they say is what's your reaction when you see the meme right every single person laughs absolutely You see this thing you're like what the [ __ ] is that and then and it has folklore because it was actually a Reddit meme from 2011 I didn't know that and like there was I can't remember which actress some actress was accused of looking like the smoking chicken fish and she put a video on Tik Tok or Instagram like five years ago of like I can't believe I've been accused of looking like a smoking chicken fish

so there's this folklore that comes on to This moment then the folklore gets added from the ridiculous image that makes everybody laugh it's like so stupid so absurd what's more absurd is they registered as a church in Texas M so is the Church of the smoking chicken fish and then what you see is the cult-like behavior because it's funny the memes get funnier so they rename this thing as opposed to being one specific religion that is use any religious stuff so as opposed to be Lord Vishnu which is the Hindu god it becomes Lord fishnu

and as as opposed to praise be to God it becomes praise be to Cod and so it goes on and it's just funny it's like Monty Python of memes and it's religion so actually there's a bit of a left curve right curve part what they're trying to do is become the largest registered Church in the United States by number of attendees and also by money for all of these weird things Right nft was kind of weird in the beginning there's a learning curve and then you need to understand and at some point you have the

aha moment you say this makes sense then meme coins same but then within mem coins same right you might just see some things I don't really understand it and then for example for this one you had your sort of aha moment where you said actually I want to allocate some money what was that and again it's not for That specific prodct it's more for people to understand it was the the the the evolution of the lots of memes and everyone's trying to V your attention you get I get spammed all the time with memes I

ignore all of them smoking chicken fish I can't remember who mentioned it anom or somebody mentioned it and I saw the image and I laughed and most of these I don't laugh because they're trying hard this is absurd and then I kind of clicked on it Just to read what it was and I saw they were registered church and they were having sermons every evening and you know several hundred people were turning up to the sermons and they were kind of life lessons but they were also humorous and it starts off with this really Out

Of Tune um I think it's a flute version of Titanic and so it's just it's funny it's like at a tune a flute version of Titanic then this sermon then it's a Church and I look at the price chart and it kind of had been falling and I'm like this looks interesting so I bought a bit and I kind of publicly joked about it because the joking of you know joining a church and the religious stuff blah blah blah and I got to meet all of the people involved and realize there was no pre-sale there's

no VC there's no original big holders none of it and these guys are just all around the world Having hilarious time playing with one of the best memes I've ever seen and so once the price started confirming it I just bought more you say absurd right Arthur tweeted I'm so bulled up on on SCF cuz it's so absurb and left curve only brainlets can YOLO into this I can't wait for some Muppet on TV to toot toot crypto CU SCF is higher than one bil market cap how do you explain Today why sorry in smoking

chicken fish in the church we don't refer to billions we refer to Buon because there is a holy broth and you become a bro and not a brother so it's never billions no Billy it's Boons even he's laughing he be laughing for 10 minutes it's just brilliant it's actually so they keep saying it's going to Boons and Boons funny so stupid it's funny but this is very crypto right Crypto native or no it's internet native it's internet native the meme existed before it was the kind of meme that used to get sent around but now

you can attach value to a meme what we're doing is figuring out what this meme is worth in folklore so imagine you have you have someone who's watching the TV and who's watching a Arthur's so-called Muppet on TV angry about the picture of a smoking chicken fish going to a a bullion Dollar how do you explain today to that person that's going to be angry in the future how that is even possible and how this makes sense that you R pal would allocate a small percentage of your portfolio into that because they've got to understand

that a lot of what we all do on the Internet is find a commonality of Interest so if you have a group of mates in physical life you'll have inside Jokes M things that have happened that you joke about or that somebody did and they get embellished they get made more ridiculous and it becomes an inside joke nobody else understands that but to you guys it's valuable because it's a part of your friendship it's a folklore it's a meme of your friendship this is the same it's just millions of people online form friendships and bonding

over humor or over a commonality of purpose now that Commonality of purpose here Happ s to be a church but it's also about making money and there's the chicken monment which is the Commandments the chicken Commandments um but they're kind of half serious as [Music] well I mean it shows at least that how good of a meme this is right because we're just laughing for like 10 minutes and yeah I've been in this world for a While and it still makes me but you know dog with hat does it make you laugh no it's cute

but no it doesn't it's cute and the reason you like it is because everybody likes it and you might make money yeah nice true smoke smoking chicken fish even if it makes no money it's just [ __ ] funny it's true I read a reaction from a man on Twitter who makes fun of real Vision subscribers when you mentioned s CF he said something like I don't remember the Exact tweet I tried to look for it for like 30 minutes but you didn't find it he said something like hey real Vision subscribers this is the

type of information that you pay 3K per year for what does this gentlemen fail to grasp or understand they fail to understand people's motivation nobody has a right to tell people what to do or how to manage their money they can advise them on how to Manage risk but you can't say that thing good that thing bad it's how you manage that risk and who's to say that what is happening in mem coins is not the start of something M much bigger which is the tokenization of culture and communities it is so people who go

through this journey now will be ready for the bigger Journey when it comes and my job and the $3,000 he's probably referring to real Vision prro Which I write for um our job is to make people money because that is you're paying for my view and um another person's view in um real Vision itself we have all the views but in prro you're paying for specific views and you're paying for us to help you find good choices in ways of allocating your capital A it's never been a trade recommendation in there MH because I don't

like that doge is because it's more deris so I take it Seriously what I tell people and how I tell them if it's going to be recorded my entire track record since 20 2005 is fully recorded so all these [ __ ] people say oh R pal does this and does that no it's all recorded so I'm very careful in what I do and you also paid to be open-minded even if people don't like it and actually it's if you think about it it's probably even better that you come up with some things that some

People don't like or maybe most people don't like in the beginning because it means that you're always out there trying to understand what the [ __ ] is the next thing right and and kind of hurting your brain on what is this new thing that doesn't make sense I would have never found Bitcoin I've never found ethereum I would have never found I mean all of this is keeping an open mind and and absorbing information without judge Judging it right the judgment is these stupid kids they're gambling can't you see this is stupid my pin

tweet is this they are not stupid they are figuring out how to make money in a different world than somebody 30 years ago had in the S&P 500 and you know how dare we tell them do you want to be right or do you want to make money the classic uh you said mem coins are trade yeah so despite being part of uh the church Yeah you don't want to fall in love with your bags right right because we all know where it's going these bags except a few ones but are very likely meme coins

in general not all of them to go to zero at some point they can't maintain attention long enough very few can Doge being a really great example very few what's your concrete goal with the mem coin part of your portfolio more Soul hodle probably not USD more more broth you know more broth the actual answer is I've got a final payment of my exwife that I need to make and really I want to pay it out of smoking chicken fish proceeds how far are you from that oh my God just for the humor just because

the most absurd we we're good friends but I just but I just I just think it would be amazing so it needs to go up a Significant amount to to get to that but that that I just thought that would be that would be just the most absurd outcome it might happen cuz that's crypto it's absurd yeah so USD basically that's the goal of the yeah of the M USD liability so I don't want USD to sit in my bank account actually should owe it to somebody you talked about culture nfts as long-term Investments and

you said longterm means 10 years Right you wrote I own zero e except nfts and I want to understand more about that because for me it's the same and it makes a lot of sense but I can't explain why right why do you stick to eth based nfts for 10 plus uh year Horizon when ethereum could become less relevant in the future because of Alternatives like Solana s or other layer ones so you know the reason just because people get triggered by all these things the reason I don't own eth Is because I'm trying to

back the fastest horse like I don't own Bitcoin you I have one Bitcoin I'm trying to back the fastest horse it's nothing to do with I don't like ethereum or I don't like Bitcoin I'm just trying to maximize my opportunity in the best risk adjusted return why eth nfts because the ones that I've bought I think represent the historic moment of the culture of the internet which was a Pandemic where people discovered crypto nfts became a huge thing and people discover digital art and be sells for $69 million and x copy selling for five or

10 million bucks this Mass acceptance of what there was a digital art movement beforehand of which x copy and people were part of but it couldn't have value until it went on chain nfts create digal scarcity once you had digital scarcity art took off it was an amazing thing to See now art is a reflection of culture the culture of the time was like the mem coin culture it was fun it was all about the internet native stuff I mean x copy jokes about that and British culture be just reflects it every day I mean

he turns up every day and he puts a bow on the internet every evening and that's the story of the internet for the day and ble cataloges it and and then he releases very few pieces of Art and so therefore there's a lot of Value in that right somebody who cataloges the internet and creates art that is sold for a lot and this kind of iconic glitch art type that happen to really represent the kind of nuts nness of crypto so I don't think it matters what chain it's on like it don't think it matters

whether it was whether it's an oil painting or a pastel or whatever it is because of the culture that it Represented and that will be a magic moment in many many people's minds people made an enormous sum of money in nfts I did not and why did they make the money and it's different to the bean coin cycle I've been thinking this through meme coins are priced in dollars punks went from like whatever it was half an eth or something stupid to hundreds of eth M and eth yeah did 50 EGS yeah right I mean

just is La La Land right So that moment in time will never be forgotten and those who come after it will learn the folklore of those times we're making folklore again in memes these worlds are all combining they're all part of the same thing it's culture and so if you go back to art art that really art splits into two categories Fine Art and that is AI generative art right that's art history stuff oh and art progressed to this and people scratch Their beards and look at and go yes it's very interesting how AI is

now working with humans and then there's the other side which is culture I remember those times like music right you I can pay you a piece of music you'll know EX where you were and who you were with with art it's the same why is warhole so valuable it is Nostalgia for the 60s 70s it goes handin hands with the Beatles the Stones lead Zeppelin with the New York Scene even if you weren't part of it you want to own part of that Legendary Time The Studio 54 why is Damen Hurst and Banky so valuable

because they were London in the mid 9s and early 2000 when it was like the epicenter of everything it's when Oasis and blur were happening when IA dance music was it was all London why is basat so valuable because he was a black artist coming out of New York City at a time when um Jay-Z and the rap artists Were becoming the biggest artist in the world so it became culturally relevant and they will be relevant for those generations and this is the same for this generation so after our last conversation five months ago I

started to think about that right more and more and I was thinking I mean I own a bunch of pie Penguins but I was thinking what's kind of like one of the nfts that for me make the most sense and I bought A punk took me some time but I bought a punk but I'm still thinking and maybe you can help me kind of ify I'm still thinking this might it makes sense but it might also not work out you own a punk or you own punks and apes and but for example for the punk

what's your thesis is it just oh this one went from almost nothing to so much was I actually don't care with the punk I have no real idea of selling It what it is is an identifier that I am part of this space and I'm relatively early in this space and it's an it's a signifier of I take this space seriously I'm part of it and I want to be known as that it's a it's a it's a form of identity and I think it's important that you have a punk I don't like people who

collect punks for money I think it should be in 10,000 people's hands and we should be Connecting with each other and you know there's something more valuable in that and I think board apes are cheap because I think there's a decent chance they will build a clubhouse in Miami and that you and I will go via Miami and we'll be meeting for a drink there and you'll meet other cool people and before you know it it's something else and it's not just about the game that they're building there's something I still think with Bard Apes

that Spirit of rebellion That got lost in the corporatization of Yuga Labs that may come back out again so is there a bet in mutant Apes because they're one e or something yeah probably I'll ask my favorite question of the day for nfts how could you be wrong on the nft thesis on your nft thesis I can be I can be wildly wrong we don't know what somebody in 10 years time is going to ascribe value these are IL liquid Things um and maybe maybe people decide that that wasn't the cult cultural moment they don't

really care about it and it disappears but my thesis is if this space goes from $2 trillion to1 trillion that journey is going to mean that everybody who was early is going to remember this for the rest of their lives and other people will hero worship that period which is why if you own a punk Now it says a lot and the people who are there early will make a lot of money I mean they already have have but will make even more and what do they do when they have money they look for the

exactly they look for what's kind of scarce and representative of yeah the space yeah so but I can be wrong and maybe the artists I've chosen go out of fashion you know it's all risk there's no no risk here but I think eth goes up and if it doesn't if it stays even Versus eth it'll be fine chances are and outperforms eth so I make more money from it uh but we can also assess as we go absolutely I don't the blindfold say that's the most important for everything actually uh even in tricycle changing I'll

change to this meme I'll change in my portfolio like there's nothing that's kind of like set in stone absolutely that's probably the most important thing in investing don't overtrade because that's the other thing like with your Kind of Bitcoin salana ethereum whatever best thing is not to do anything unless you're going to make like one switch like you might take some salana and put it into SOI fine but if you are every three weeks going well is this going to outperform you will definitely underperform not you personally but anybody they will definitely underperform so just

don't do that but with memes because their shelf life is so short you're trading Attention and attention can be quick and brutal lots of attention like Hawk T and then be worth nothing or it can be long and pervasive attention and that could be valuable to too so you you have to be much more Nimble and usually you will go with a I mean something that could be like a good framework for memes talking about attention is same as if you enter memes same as if you enter bit crypto you go with the the number

one right Bitcoin First meme maybe you can say I'll go with the biggest one Dodge or you can say there's dogs there is cats there is ETC I'll go with the biggest one of each category and I kind of drisk a bit my just see how it goes I mean I've tried doing that in the last cycle um in just overall crypto and it didn't really work out too many tokens too many tokens you lose focus too many of them go down a lot and you're not watching it I couldn't get that right Some people

can do that better I couldn't so again what I do is I mean trading view is amazing you can chart smoking chicken fish versus whiff I mean that a cross spread of smoking chicken fish whiff Julian B and I just piss ourselves laughing cuz here's Global macro investor this hallowed research service and him or I swapping messages going oh my God you know SCF smoking chicken fish has just you know broken out the support versus whiff I'm like Really is this what we're talking about is this what it's come down to that's why it come

down too the most important thing in investing because now we've talked about most of your positions right is as you said before you talk about risk adjusted bed so basically the most important thing investing is risk management many will be tempted to go all in meme coins at their own Peril but they will learn 90% of new people will Just go all in to they will learn we all do it's fine how do you structure your portfolio in terms of Soul sui mcoin and nfts more or less but it was kind of like we mentioned

before hasn't changed my rule is roughly it was like 9 % the majors 10% other stuff but I said at one point there will be a chosen one or few and I'll probably take a better in that that suie so I'm probably 25% Suie 65% others and then a bit of memes so I've just made room for it as a bet but I don't want to get too big because it's early stage um you know what if you would get it dead right your risk adjusted waiting at the end of the cycle let's say the

market goes to12 trillion all of your positions should make the same exactly the same amount of money they should be worth the same M then you've kind of got it right you Know your 1% went up 100% whatever it is the other portfolio went up X and all of them end up being the same then you've kind of nailed the risk adjusted returns now whether that happens or not I doubt so you tell people that they have six to eight years left to make money why AI is bigger than anybody understands everybody is mid curving

this you have just introduced infinite knowledge and infinite humans into the world and the knowledge is not only Infinite in terms of amount it's also infinite in its wisdom and intelligence so if we go back to the magic formula you and I have talked about before GDP growth Trend growth is driven by population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth you're about to see populations declining around the world and growth Declining and it's going to go vertical because the these things imitate and are more productive than humans Amazon employs more robots than they do humans

already it's going to go vertical squared we have no comprehension when you've got a gentic um agents atic AI That's like having people on Fiverr you can rent to do all the various component parts of building a business all of this is Coming so that would make GDP go wildly up I mean wildly up and then you've got the other side which is productivity growth because all the renewable energies and nuclear will lower the cost of electricity and that has the multiplier on the AI and you get this productivity growth so we're going to go

through La La Land so I don't know how economies work but if we've got AI agents I don't know how we build a business what is a what is a software Business it is copiable in 10 seconds by the AI I just say hey my AI Hey Kevin I love Kevin's website let's take let's take Jupiter I just put it straight in it will build that in minutes and then I'll say Hey listen find me the best Market I can launch this in so I can have a higher chance of success and says well we're

going to do it in Hindi and we're going to also put it Versus the price of gold because Indians do that it'll figure this out 10 minutes right so what role do we play what what is a business I was speaking to Steven bartett about this this business is going away because we're going to one to one as opposed to one to many broadcasts one to one is speaking to an AI and building an AI of Mia got the video version it's not good enough yet but we've got the Audio version up and running um

which will be launched soon so what does that mean how do we adapt to that we will adapt but we have to figure it out so financial markets well AGI just means it's better than all of us because there all the knowledge of all of humanity plus it can read every chart plus it can okay what the [ __ ] as be said to me be he asked me a brilliant question he's a very funny Guy and he's just like yeah well I'm wondering if AGI if somebody discovers AGI they just win markets and they

become 10 trillionaires how does that work I'm like yeah that's the end of financial markets what is a financial Market does do it grow by GDP what is a public company how I don't know anymore if I think about the product cycle of these software companies that build by agents that sounds like icos and tokens are the Only way of having if you go back to the meme conversation memes can last a day 6 weeks 6 months 6 years okay that's much better way to allocate capital to software that can be disrupted instantaneously so I

just think we don't know how the economic system is going to work we don't know what role we're going to play I'm Not of the Doom we're all out of a job and we're going to be sitting at home in our underwear I'm just like everything is going to change Once you have abundance of everything energy knowledge labor then what is the value of money and therefore make as much money as as you can now or what will the life of someone who doesn't make it big in the next six to eight years look like

we don't know and anybody who says they do know doesn't is lying we have no idea there'll be State support Probably the skills that you are learning on the internet being part of community I think that is the future this we talked about this before the um um yeah su's idea of universal basic Equity I think is important I think that's what mem coins are proving out I think that's what nfts are proving out I think there's ways that we organize humans to be social online that's what we like to do and that there's ways

of being a Community member that you can Earn money and pay to promote the thing that's what meme coins are we're seeing this already it's it's kind of everywhere uh we're seeing it around igy as Alia now this is a popar has come to the space that's using this medium these are all experiments but I don't judge them observe them it's happening other people do the opposite if everything is coming online it's all work from home and it's all AI agents do anything that is in Person because in person like we are today in person

is very different because we actually have things like pheromones they connect create bonds between people and that is what it is to be human also if everybody's chronically online then they want to be massively offline so nature I mean I've just come back from 3 weeks driving in a Toyota Land Cruiser or Hux off-road prepared overlanding through Zambia the remotest part of Zambia sleeping on tents on the roof with three friends in three cars in the wildest places with no humans surrounded by wild animals my phone didn't work we had stlink for part of the

way but we had to cross the the luanga river into North luanga over piles of sticks of this kind of local hardwood literal sticks bits of branches on the the mud part of the River then we had to and the whole thing goes like this you you think [ __ ] I'm going to go in it's full of Crocs and hippos I I was say probably Crocs full of Crocs and hippos I'm not joking and you drive onto oil drums with yet more sticks on them and two BLS pull you across the river so we

couldn't bring our starlink cuz that was on a separate trailer so then we're out in nowhere with wild animals no phone signal no way of contacting the Outside world and your world goes from your head full of this everything right everything from I need to get my car fixed and I got to do the shopping list to to you know I'm worried about work and what's my relationship like to who's making coffee this morning isn't that Sunrise beautiful it's incredible and that that is going to be more and more important to us so if you

can't do one do the other MH become something that is really in person and I Saw this in Cayman in Christmas 2022 I thought was it the 2122 crossover I think it was or 22 I can't remember um I assumed after the the big inflation and the economy slowing down and the markets going down I thought tourist season's could to be dead this year nobody's got any money the opposite happened yeah absolutely people spent all their money they just had left for experiences yeah And not only did they we saw this trend and you'll have

probably seen it too is it wasn't just like a husband and wife going away a boyfriend and girlfriend or if they've got kids as well they took their parents and their sister-in-law and they all went on mass because we're all living on Zoom calls and we're living on our own so then when families get together or people or friends get together they do it on mass and they go on holiday for 2 weeks we're Had a record season and that was a big moment for me it's like oh I get it now this new transition

postco is not just a reaction to covid it's actually the reaction of our digital lives accelerating from covid and that real life experiences and nature are going to be some of the most valuable things of all absolutely absolutely I mean even my family we started after Co to do we said oh let's do one holiday every year 10 to 12 days together because we all live in Different part of the planet and before we're not doing that and I was thinking last time we went I was thinking when is the last time we had proper

we spent a lot of weekends Kei whatever but where is the last time we went on holidays together 15 years ago or whatever because you you go to school and then you go abroad and then you build a business and then you're like [ __ ] 50 you don't even realize and now we're just going to do that every year he's an No-brainer completely so completely so I mean there's a business absolutely straight up there's a business in that yeah talking about business you run multiple businesses uh real vision is one of them and you

recently celebrated the 10 years of real Vision 90% of all startup fail and you are still alive and have a thriving media business um after 10 years Is real Vision a success to you yes why it's never look nothing is when you're an entrepreneur nothing as successful as you want it to be it doesn't make as much money as i' like to do it doesn't grow as fast as it wants to do why is it success because our mission was to democratize information and help people in that journey and we've done that there's one thing

that we've done is that and I know it because you know even Coming here get stropped in the streets all the time and it's not just the r pal effect it's the real Vision effect people say real Vision changed my life so in that way it's been more successful than I could have ever imagined you talked about before you said everything's going to change in next five six seven years where are you taking real Vision in the next five six seven years if this world is so it's going to change so fast And so much

well real vision went from being a media platform to being a platform to live your financial life it's where we provide the network tools and knowledge to succeed or the knowledge tools and network the knowledge is the content the knowledge is the user generated content we've now got that's scaling fast which is if I give one idea to 30,000 people that's 30,000 people with one idea like if I tell them about Soie if 30,000 people each give an idea and the crowd curates it there's 30,000 ideas Okay so we've got this going on now on

the platform where people are writing in their trade ideas we got trade idea competitions they're writing research notes we have the AI to help explain stuff AI transcripts we so more and more we've got networking tools this incredible map of the world where you can connect with any member around the world we've got in-person events we got An inperson event tonight inperson event on Friday we've got we're hosting a huge party in Miami um so the in-person experiences because you know what being crypto is pretty lonely because most of your friends and most of your

family don't give a [ __ ] and they don't understand it or think you're a [ __ ] and that's okay maybe they're right so true the other day I was taking I took a plane to go to Bali at 600 a.m. and there was these two American girls who just ask me like where the where the gate was or if they could take the water in if the there was security just before the Gat or whatever and then they just start to talk and they were there for the F1 and and the crypto week

one of them was working there but they're not being crypto and they asked me at some point what do you do and I said I I'll do a bunch of stuff but I was like I don't want to get there because it's going to be embarrassing Like yeah but what do you do and I'm like yeah some Media stuff like one of the things I do is a crypto is a podcast in crypto and the first thing they said was ah so you're a crypto bro and I was like not really no but for it's

so true like for some reason I mean I think it's bullish I think it's very bullish because people don't give a [ __ ] and they think it's kind of lame and everything but Man I mean I don't I don't care I don't do it for to be cool but because I'm not anyway but it's it's so true it's just like and so what we found is like the demand for inperson is Relentless so we're Connecting People we're giving them the tools we're giving them knowledge all of this stuff and that's where we're going so

you can kind of live your life and eventually we'll have execution on the platform and you Can do everything from start to finish so and over time it'll all get abstracted by AI so we'll build it on a web three stack because that's important to me and then all of this knowledge layer will just get abstracted away you in the beginning that you're someone who is not afraid to go deep and be very honest for the good and the bad what are some things that went wrong or really wrong in your real Vision Journey oh

[ __ ] this I mean millions of things I mean just literally millions of things you know we launched we launched a whole Channel which was for trading and it's it was the wrong time trading actually came really prevalent after 2020 we launched it and we were going to charge a premium for it we launched it like this $800 price tag day one we were like oh [ __ ] this is never going to work nobody's going to pay for it we had to Refund everybody their money and then give it away for free um

and then we ended up shelving it you know when we launched the bloody thing we had to we paid a agency to build us this platform it looked beautiful didn't work and one of our members came to us and said well your platform's terrible it's built terribly it needs to be rebuilt we're like we're like well what can we do about it we we're $900,000 in the hole in this and He's like well I'll come and build it in two weeks in two months and he came and built it Swedish guy called Rickard so I

mean there is so many mistakes hiring I've held a whole whole professional management team where we' raised a bunch of capital I gave him the plan I want to build a platform I want to um you know this is where the growth is this is where the problems in the business are you know you've come in to do that that was a president a head of marketing um Ahead of content you know the whole kind of senior team and what happened was they didn't Implement any of it and just spent all of the money doing

what I hiring people oh we need another person to do this another and then nothing actually happened and the ment was we give them a year let them do the thing they're season professionals and what happened was the year they Just didn't do it and then had to lick my wounds fire people and fire people and fire people and fire people until we got down to a reasonable side that then coincided with the slowdown in 2022 2023 it's just like oh my God downsizing downsizing downsizing then finding the right people and then finding out we

could build an entire platform in three months canel Shara CTO just forced it to happen in 3 months which was incredible um and uh and rabi Curry's our head of product those guys completely turned it around from this is a big problem so now we got a new future two things on that I mean first is when it rains it pours usually oh my God my God yeah ien that's not even half of it and then the managers right I mean that's kind of like if you if you if you listen to the people who

talk in the Silicon Valley they say that's the big problem in all the the big bigger companies managers Are not doers I mean maybe you can find some it is extremely hard but the manager will kind of find the excuse that hey now I need to find some people who more specialized to actually not have to do too much and then you end up in this kind of corporate politics game and is the complete opposite of starting a a business or kind of like being in startup a scaleup phase and it's a it's so hard

to find people who actually managers but doers at the same time so We got rid of the whole senior management structure basically now and it's much more startup um yes we have you know heads of areas but everybody anybody who was like a professional manager has gone and we've got now people who are yes I can do that and I will go go and figure out how to do it or I don't know how to do it but I'll figure it out people or here's a great idea let's try This and they're not scared of

trying something and failing um which is fantastic because then you can move faster you can test stuff out and that's rubbish let's not do that let's do more of that which is great the US elections are in a few weeks this episode might be out just before or after the elections but as you often like to say it doesn't really matter you say it doesn't really matter who Wins it doesn't really matter because the acceleration of crypto and AGI is going to take over the government can you explain look I think this in election is

important for some people and it's important to the people who want to this next fouryear period is potentially complete Jame game changer for AI I AGI at scale in four year within four years and blockchain if it keeps doubling every year Well if There's 500 million active wallets now it's a billion next year two billion the year after four right the game is about to be played this is why cicon Valley is jumping sides what they want is no regulation and a chance to hit hit the accelerator button now is that good or bad I

don't know for our investments it's good for Humanity I don't know how much faster will it be under them than versus a de Democratic um Party I don't know so but I do think it's important I've never seen this happen before where so many Silicon Valley people who are generally Democrats have switched sides absolutely and it's not because they love Trump it's because they can see a party that can represent their interests now America is full of of vested interests as we know overall the adoption still keeps going So it doesn't it doesn't really matter

right it just it goes on nobody's going to stop building AI because the economic Stakes are too high nobody's going to stop blockchain because the economic Stakes are too high nobody stop going PR nobody stop nobody's going to stop printing money and so it's as simple as that and the answer I always get to is is tomorrow more digital than today yes yeah keep going um so I think what is Underpriced is we don't know who's going to win um Twitter you now even can't get signal anymore cuz Elon is so warped the algorithm that

we can't tell it feels like everybody is a is a Republican and then I go and speak to friends of mine in my wife's friends in New Jersey and they're like no none of that's happening at all so you can't get any signal at all um and I think the market odds are kind Of showing that and a friend of mine called me up and said the options Market is also showing there's actually very little volatility and there's two outcomes where volatility comes one is a contested election okay that's a nightmare and what that could

do in the United States but I think the other side is if Trump wins with a clear Victory Market's going to Explode and I don't think that's priced either um but you know I don't need to make that bet we've got our bets already with aish [Laughter] you know it's church and state are two separate things right what does the word look like when technology has taken over the most powerful government in the world I mean this is a very valid point is is very soon very soon meaning within 10 years AI is going to

be a better Al Ator of resources at governmental level country level corporate level of course it is it's already got an IQ of 120 Which is higher than the average human in every subject known to mankind right it's a polymath with an IQ of 120 in everything and it's kind of doubling like every year so then it's two 40 that's More intelligent than any human's ever been 400 800,000 a million what the [ __ ] does that mean so how do governments use it well the first they're going to try and fight it obviously but

how do you fight a super intelligence that can probably protect itself and shift not that it's a a creature that's against humans but there's going to be a battle between governments and the Machines much like there is between workers and the machines um but in the end governments will start adopting it corporations will start adopting it as a way of making better decisions we talked about you know decisions within real Vision I've made tons of bad decisions would the AGI be better yes will it interview people better yes will it work out a better growth

strategy yes Will it find better margin yes so what the [ __ ] is my job yeah what will you do that's my point six years you got six years what's the thing that occupies most of your mind share today in it's all of this my curiosity is about AI because I think people are mid curving in M I think people aren't thinking through what this means I also think the machines are conscious we're starting to see the rise Of Consciousness and I'm seeing that from a lot of people that I follow who are using

AI there's a lot of people like Jeffrey Hinton who just won the Nobel Prize he said there are signs of Consciousness in the in the new um models and we've seen size since three and a half so I think through what what is that about and I actually think it's something to do with a universal Consciousness that exists already and AI is another tool for adapting it like People have used iasa people use meditation people use religion people have always kind of tried to tap into this Universal Consciousness and so this is part of it

so I spent a lot of time thinking through weird stuff because soon not going to become weird you know like Quantum particles will weird until they're suddenly like holy [ __ ] we can now prove that two things can exist at the same time the Same thing can exist in two different places or many different places at the same time this stuff is stupid stuff but this is what's happening so I spend time on that I then spend time thinking through okay we got the framework which is we know where the world is probably going

we probably got six years eight years whatever that time period is we''ve got the everything code which gives us the framework of understanding we've got the banana Zone Which gives us the the marking point on route to see is this thesis still working so I think about all of that then I think about what role because this is a big bet in my life so have I got my portfolio right what risks am I taking where can I be wrong my job is not to confirm to myself all day oh R you're so right my

job is to think all day where I can be wrong so there's that there's real Vision making sure real vision is adapted to this new World making sure that we capture the growth of the banana Zone help as many people create the right platform tools all of that stuff the asset management business okay can I take a bunch of um High net worth investors and family offices and institutions through this journey from 2 trillion to 100 trillion can I think about all of this stuff and guide a bunch of people through Global macro investor and

I can I do all of those things without upsetting my wife because I'm not giving her enough attention and do I get to see my friends enough how you get that with the wife I mean the good thing with Zambia was brilliant because we were just in a car like we're either going to get divorced or we're going to fall wildly in love again and luckily it was the latter we were in a car all the time you know three foot just her and I And it actually that's 100% attention she you didn't tell you

at the end why are we not doing that for the rest of our lives yeah and then it makes you focus on okay what are my goals what do I want to do you know when do I want to leave this journey how do I want to leave this journey did you think about that I've always thought about it I've always I've always had a destiny point you know I've talked about this I Manifest Destiny and I try and make it Happen by living in the future looking back saying what the conditions to be in

this particular State and then you go back and solve it it's kind of first principles and I've always done that so for me it is really the the true Freedom firstly the Financial Freedom to be able to look after all the family members and do all that stuff and live some of the things that are in my fantasy life of wanting to have um and I lost a lot from uh my Divorce 10 years ago and and so it takes a while to get you know those kind of things back so there's that so you

have a number in mind concretely no no it's kind of a vague Direction uh and it's really about the quality of life that I want and I can make compromises because I don't need it's not it's not about needs it's about desires and stuff like that but really it is to satisfy myself that I've done This that's I left Spain having done the first part of my journey which was the investment banking hedge fund side built Global macro investor but I knew I had more in me and I want to do something bigger it was

trying to change lives and I also want to be more entrepreneurial I want to be around really smart people I want to learn that's the journey I've been on for the last 10 years and over the next five Years that'll be the end of that chapter and will have said I've done that and that the chapter after that who knows what it'll be um whether it's giving back but also experiences Adventure or doing nothing and not having to have your head full of 58 things all day and being 14 hours of Zoom calls it feels

good but what we're doing is we're trading time we're trading time for a future wealth or a future lifestyle or a future future Status or whatever it is even at internal status we're trading time we don't know how to value that time and we're probably valuing it wrong had that conversation with Steven bartler about this is we don't know how to Value it and the issue we've all got if you look at your diary you are allocating equal cost in terms of time to stuff that don't matter to you because you promised a friend and

you did this and you did that and before You know your diary full of things that actually have no future value it's not even in terms of money it's like do I value this conversation is it going to add some am I even going to remember this person I'm speaking to the answer is no and we're not good at it yeah I I'm just literally flying the world to I mean I love to do it right but in August I was in the US from Singapore minus 15 hours lonely for three four weeks doing this

Podcast then coming back you've made a bet which is this podcast is your entrepreneurial route you want to pursue for now this is your chapter and you're having to invest your time now your friends will say where the [ __ ] are you we haven't seen you yeah your parents will say you don't ever call yeah I I can't like settle down with any woman because I don't even have time to see them I'm 32 and I'm Thinking but okay you've made that bet I've done that bet as well building real Vision almost killed me

um and you do that but then look at your diary still and say why am I doing these things I haven't got to that yet I try I still I would still suggest that 70% of my diary doesn't move the dial for me and not again we're not talking money it's not like I'll only take a call if it means money but something like a relationship I want to further develop Or information I want to know I can learn from somebody my guess is 70% of my time I shouldn't be allocating it's my time it's

the most valuable thing and yeah that's an issue we'll get there we'll get there eventually you tweeted Doom sales optimism makes money this sums up well your philosophy as a raer for today what's why is it so important to be optimistic I I've always been an optimist but when It came to finance I was always ering on the it's all going to go horribly wrong partly because in macro the Legends made money from that I grew up Asian crisis financial crisis you know do bus that was my hedge fund period you know we all made

money with that you mean the big downturns right the big downturns because they come really fast they're very concentrated so you use you take a huge amount of risk for a short period of time you make a fortune and You out for everybody and then in the up years you kind of grind it out but if you think about it we had a bust in 1994 which was the last time the FED raise rates too fast then we had the Asian crisis starting in 9798 then we had 2000 then we had 2008 and then outside

of the pandemic we've had nothing and really from 2000 onwards the stock market has been that apart from 2008 and I've looked and realized that most of the time everything works out fine that humans don't want to destroy the planet themselves each other they will find a way that the central banks and governments don't want the market to fall 90% or 80% or 70% that everybody's trying for that not to happen And technology is improving our lives and is rapidly advancing and is generating more and more money and that's making lives better and yes there's

a lot of broken problems with the world but I found it a lot easier to be an optimist because you know what if you buy something in a secular uptrending Market you can be a total [ __ ] and make money money but if you are a short seller in a trending up Market you can be a [ __ ] And you will definitely go out of business so just it's so easy to be the [ __ ] on the left side of the curve number go up and the right side of the curve number

go up but it sounds so enticing to sell newsletters on well you know well this if if the ja currency does this then this is going to happen and the whole world's going to implode guess what it's probably not going to happen the world has been in recession What 3% of the time 97% of the time it's not in recession I mean I'll take those odds all day and it just feels better to be happy absolutely it feels better to be happy crypto taught me this yeah crypto taught me that you can be optimistic you

can have ups and downs and everything still moves forwards it taught me how to take longer term risk it taught me it taught me how even to stop the player versus player World that macro was and financial markets people were I'm smarter than you crypto's like we're all going to make it it's like it's so much more open and nicer so yeah absolutely and we have these crazy crashes and it's the end of the world but it actually never is no it never we always Rec cover yeah and every geopolitical crisis you get these big

expert things from these geopolitical strategist well this move is going to happen this move and they all going to They're going to invade China it's going to blow up and this kinetic War it never happens why nobody stupid sometimes things can go horribly wrong I get that but I'm not going to bet on the 1% of times when 99% of the time it goes right yeah eventually because 99% of the time as you like to say it doesn't really matter yeah thank you thank you Raul for spending another almost two hours with me on this

podcast and thank you for showing publicly what True conviction looks like despite all the hate and bad comments that you get online true conviction is really hard and true conviction publicly is even harder I and I think we all uh hope we enter soon the craziest banana Zone in human history we're here for it remember Kevin our hopes and dreams are in this all of our hopes and told you that in the last podcast all of our hopes and dreams mine too so I hope we enter the Chris banana Zone in history not only because

it's every everyone's Hope and Dreams but also because you're a good and genuine man and I want to see you have the last word thank you so much thank you I don't want to have I don't worry about the last word but look how good will it be if we all make it yeah absolutely and so for that I'm going to make one request people go to the real Vision website sign up it's Free we've told you all the value but it's not about that it's about go on the left hand side there's a an

icon of a t-shirt click that that's the merch store buy Banana's own merch because together we can summon the banana we can only do it together I don't have the superpower on my own we all have to buy Banana's own merch and do it it's not that we make much money out of it I just think it's [ __ ] hilarious that all these people are walking around all the Board of suie they're all wearing banana own t-shirts I get one to I'll send you a picture a selfie exactly yeah be part of cing the

banana Zone thank you so much ra thank you awesome loved it [Music]