[Music] what ring ring ring hello SS and virgins and welcome back to crowns magical Christmas internet money K and happy birthday to everyone well well well welcome back to the air Crown crypto Channel and it's actually Elsa's birthday today and in today's video we're going to be celebrating it by going over some Bitcoin monthly statistics for the month of January also go a little little bit of short-term time frame stuff as well I do think that there's actually rather interesting things going on um particularly with the monthly returns for January that we haven't really seen
in Prior months at least since we started doing this um around the midpoint of last year other than that I should also let you know that of course because it is Elsa's birthday and the holiday season and all of these good things there's a sale going on the sale code is of course Elsa which you can use at checkout for 20% off of any one of the programs or services in the teachable School in the link in the description below again the code is Elsa e LSA as some people um have sent messages about how
to actually spell that it's e l Za no El LSA and uh and yes other than that Elsa has received some new English lessons so perhaps you might be be able to do better introductions in the future so without further Ado let's just jump right into the actual charts for today we're going to be looking at the monthly returns like I said for January I've gone through each and every prior January in bitcoin's history except for actually 2010 because uh there's not like any price like real price data there I mean I can see that
something happened and Bitcoin was obviously positive during that time but uh we don't really know how much so I decided not to include that one uh but technically speaking it would be slightly better because again that was a green month right here but um but something very interesting about January as we'll go over a little bit later is when the highs and the lows typically come in for the month of January so first things first I'll show you what the returns uh have looked like both on the on the winning side and the losing side
and of course the win percentage or win percentage in this case just means the amount of times or the or the percentage that January closed positively from open a closure which was just over 57% or8 out of 14 January is closing positively um so you know little bit better than a than a coin flip right there um even in you know whether it's a bullish Market or a bearish market January was kind of it was kind of always uh you know hit or miss for closing positively or negatively um so it wasn't like a big
you know a big uh obvious thing to be kind of gearing um uh these stats towards for January uh which is kind of unfortunate because you know for the last few months I mean it's been working out incredibly well um except for I mean December could could probably be better uh but then again we still have a few days left I suppose anyways uh the average win return for the times that it did close positively was just over 23% with the median coming in at about 1635 on the other side the average loss return was
about 16.5% and the median loss was about essentially the same actually um a little bit less than that so let's just blindly apply these numbers to a prospective closing price for December aka the opening price for January and let's just assume it's going to be somewhere around here you know Bitcoin just barely closes positively uh which would be cool I guess um of course to the upside 23% puts Bitcoin where that puts Bitcoin at 120,000 bucks so you know this is another way that I like to use or or try to gauge these statistics is
that do the returns match up with like any sort of major targets 120 is a major Target that we've been having on this channel for Bitcoin um so that actually does kind of make sense uh of course on the other side if Bitcoin were to play out the downside of these 16% to the downside would put Bitcoin where low 81,000 $82,000 which is very interesting to me because that's also kind of you know the bottom side of the range now I've been saying mid 80s so you know perhaps you get a wick down around there
that's fine uh but ultimately you know I it's still be conent that uh we're not really getting like a you know an obvious indication either way here for January just yet and when we go through the data even more um of course well it's not happen anymore so we don't care about that um when January uh you know even after a green December because I always try to look for things you know that are just maybe a little bit left of center but uh but this still like no no obvious um no no obvious uh
tilt as to whether you know Bitcoin is going to close positively or negatively for January if December Clos positively because every time that we have seen December close positively um which was actually not that many times by the way but when that has happened you know it's been 62 and a half% um uh probability that January will also close positively as well uh now I would say that when Jan when when December does close positively we can see that the average win return is actually very high for January at 34.2% so that's significantly bigger than
what we did just see of course for um for just the raw stats right up here but you know again like it's we're not we're not really getting like a really obvious uh favor in One Direction or the other I mean slight positive fa favor there obviously but not super super strong and then also did the same thing for just a green fourth quarter so it doesn't need to be green December but just a green total fourth quarter um what does that mean for January and again uh found nothing of of of significance here 54
or less than 54% of januaries would close green after having that but that's not really like it's not I mean that's basically coin flip um but again the average win return here very [ __ ] high very [ __ ] high uh even higher than the prior one at 41% anyways what I've also gone ahead and done is I've recorded the Bitcoin January lows and Bitcoin January highs we'll focus on the lows first I do think think that that's obviously more well hopefully more relevant as we'll go over might not be actually um but uh
but in this case we can see that four Bitcoin January lows typically coming in earlier on in the month when the macro trend is up that typically happens around the first week actually quite similar to this path month of December if you remember for December that number was about three spot8 and we've seen the low of December on the 5th actually so very very close there so this one um you know on the 7th so I guess good in fact the only time that we've seen it really close deeper within the month was actually last
year in 2024 um uh I I I do remember Bitcoin had that big correction after coming off of almost 50,000 bucks all the way down to like low 40 some something like that um is when that low was put in and then of course when the macr trend is down that number goes deeper into the month which which does make a lot of sense just intuitively speaking um so you know if we do see Bitcoin make new lows you know after the third week especially of January it's like I mean at that point you already
kind of know that things are not good but um but of course you know we could start to use the average returns as like a guide for where things like the close around for the end of the month of course when we go to the Bitcoin January highs this one's super interesting to me actually uh because we're getting we're we're getting an output here that is significantly different than than any prior month that we've seen um over the past four to five months now uh straights since we've been doing this data and again the Bitcoin
January highs actually on average are coming in almost at the exact date as the lows okay so that's already [ __ ] weird uh basically this one's 13 days and this one's about 12 and 1 half days when the macro trend is up we see the highs come in not that late within the month actually a few times we have seen it come in you know around the last uh the last day or two of the month but if we were to take an average of this that would put us around 16 uh the 16
so kind of relatively early at least in my opinion and then of course when the macro trend is down that number is very early on within the month so what can we gleam for this well this is actually probably the most important data right here if we are going to see like a major correction we expect that high to come in for January probably within the first week of January um and so if Bitcoin you know just nose dives from there it's probably a good indication uh that it will be a negative month so it
really does matter what happens in the first week um you know does Bitcoin kind of put in a base and rally okay probably it's going to be a green month if Bitcoin does not if it puts in new lows um especially by the end of the first week I mean because this is this number is coming in like very very early uh well downside obviously it's going to be the name of the game anyways um that's it for the monthly statistics there's my little bot in the background doing its doing its due diligence doing its
work because it also works on Elsa's on Elsa's birthday in fact everyone's working on Elsa's birthday including Elsa because I'm so generous I gave her half of a day off amazing just amazing any anyways anyways uh back into it right here um you know I did want to go over this 4H hour setup or sorry it's not really setup it's more of like a 4H hour uh I guess fractal relationship here that we have been seeing where Bitcoin has been playing out these upside moves over the course of s to eight days and then downside
moves um you know following that for about four to 5 days these have typically come in you know a uniform percentage uh gain to the upside as well you know around 15% and to the downside losing about 10% this this most recent one about 15% now we have been on this channel um suggesting that Bitcoin was going to Rally off of this region close to or above 100,000 bucks we did see almost 100,000 bucks last night on this tick right here I think the high price was 9999 so uh pretty damn close right there right
around the 50% retracement level I should add as well um so that is you know a common pull back region I would still I would still a on the side that while you know Bitcoin probably does have a little bit of short-term downside here you know there could still be uh another another attempt prep somewhere around this region right here again this is like your traditional bear trappy region but um you know I don't want to understate the significance of Bitcoin and what it did in this past uh in this past week was it this
past week yeah it was this past or this past couple weeks where Bitcoin did put in its first lower low on The Daily time frame um since this rally began which is is significant it doesn't mean that the trend is always going to reverse just from that but that is obviously a precondition for any any sort of trend Trend reversal meaning that it is now possible it is now possible and how did we get a trend reversal confirmation well if we have if we already have a lower low then a lower high would do it
as well and at that point I would I would say uh all of this data over here is very likely to Trend towards the downside meaning that uh we do see Bitcoin in the probably mid 80s something like that may maybe in the low 80s as well guess definitely possible uh possible here too but um you know just be aware that that that that can happen uh I know a lot of people are looking at January as like a super bullish month the data does not show that uh I think that's quite obvious like if
you've actually gone like people [ __ ] parrot all of the dumbest [ __ ] just because they like what it says rather than like they actually verified what it says and one of the parrots that I've seen is January is always good for Bitcoin it's it's really not it's really it's really not actually I'm not saying this this coming January has to be negative but uh the setup is there the setup is certainly there um so yeah anyways uh going down into the lower term time frames here like the 4H hour time frame we
do see that there is uh I mean I shouldn't say that there's potential there basically is hidden bearish diverence on the 4H hour RSI we do see that the RSI here on that tick to 999,000 bucks was higher than what we saw on this high right here from the 18th of December when Bitcoin was trading at $15,000 again my Line in the Sand for Bitcoin uh just blindly being bullish with targets probably like 120 and maybe Beyond uh is Bitcoin moving and closing back above $105,000 until that happens expect a prolonged correction and and and
understand that this thing can come down into the mid maybe even low 80s uh it's not out of the question here it would still that does not mean that long-term the bullmark over or anything like that uh but but it does mean that you know Bitcoin could be in for like a 20% correction um which has been the flavor of the cycle correction for the last couple years um you know 20 to 25% basically so uh Bitcoin you know from 108 down to 80 that's well that's your 20 plus uh perc correction right there anyways
um yes okay so we've got that we've got that uh also stoas momentum on all of our higher term time frames is looking like it might be once again in concert daily time frame while having a slight twist the upside yesterday preceding that run to 100,000 bucks or or almost 100,000 bucks is now going to show a potential turn back onto the downside and I'll explain a little bit in a second why I think this is very very likely to happen um assuming that today does close below 97,500 if we go to the two-day time
frame it's already nose diving of course and it remains down as long as bitcoin's below 106 if we go to the 3-day time frame also nose diving as long as bitcoin's above below 106 5day also coming down as long as bitcoin's below 103 10 10 day time frame which just closed last night by the way um is also down setting go to below 103 so we see essentially all higher term time frames in concert here you know Bitcoin probably does test a little bit of downside uh I suspect um I mean I I would suspect
like at least a minimum you know somewhere around 95,000 bucks um and then you know could Bitcoin come back down and retest these lows here at 93 I guess definitely possible um so yeah uh anyways okay we've got that we've got that we've got that yeah last thing I'll leave on right here is also the daily hpdr we can see that uh the meeting on the hpdr was above 100,000 bucks yesterday but has moved down significantly as soon as today uh opened it is currently at 98450 so Bitcoin is trading almost 2,000 bucks below it
right now it's it's not like a huge move for Bitcoin to be fair but assuming that Bitcoin does remain below there by end of day pretty damn good indication we will see Bitcoin back down around the lows of these last couple weeks perhaps around 93,000 bucks does Bitcoin make a new low possible yes but as we went over actually in the prior month statistics which I'll go over right uh just in a moment here um we typically see the the December lows so the low of the month coming in again very early on within the
month especially during macro uptrends which Bitcoin obviously is in right now around day number four thus far we've seen the low at around day uh not around but on day number five right here or sorry right here very very close but yes uh this one was lower yes okay yeah it was indeed lower so the fifth is still the low um you know is it relevant to to think that December will trade below that low you know already understanding that this data over here has been pretty [ __ ] pretty [ __ ] on the
money um if I do say so myself so you know probably not is what I would say probably not meaning that Bitcoin likely does not trade below this month's low uh to finish off this month but you know it could come down to 925,000 Bucks and I mean that's basically the low uh so um you know if Bitcoin is going is going to have a move down to the 80,000 uh very likely happens January if it's going to be happening at all and of course like I said a big key the big key that I
want to um focus on on this channel in January is what happens in that first week does Bitcoin kind of set in a base and move up okay that starts to look a lot better um at least with that data in mind and of course if Bitcoin just immediately starts going down and the high is put in you know in the first in the first few days and you see the first week even close down uh that's going to be a pretty damn good indication that uh you know January will be at least testing some
downside and probably closing negatively as well so yeah that's where I'm kind of at right now I do understand that still kind of a quiet time here so uh so we'll we'll we'll we'll continue to update um and prepare for this new year that's where I want to get a little bit more louder on this one just cuz uh I do suspect that there's a lot of fun things happening and especially with Bitcoin doing something like this right here it's actually doing something difference for the first time in quite some time but ultimately the consolidation
still more or less intact um as far as the as far as like the longterm picture goes I mean Bitcoin could come all the way down to low 80s even even upper 70s and it still is going to have higher lows on any time frame that matters for macro Trend you know even the weekly right here the 21 expens moving average is coming around 880,000 81,000 bucks um so you know these are not like super out of the question or anything like that and you know the next high or low is ultimately an opportunity what
happens to altcoins during something like this um again you know I do generally think holy [ __ ] that Bitcoin Dominus is actually looking pretty powerful right there I do still think that it's likely topping within this region right here um so perhaps you know Bitcoin remaining within this range Bitcoin itself remaining within this overall uh major range here you know is good sign that allcoins probably probably do well um during that time but when Bitcoin leaves the range well you already [ __ ] know anyways that's a good place for me to be leaving
off on this particular video a little bit longer than what I did uh intend for I apologize about that because I do understand it is still holiday time so you should probably be with your families probably should be doing something uh more important than looking at Magic internet monies but I'm glad that you are here nonetheless and as always I'd like to wish you the best of us take care much love and see you hopefully tomorrow
