Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran will pay for its missile attack while Teran threatens a crushing responsive Israel hits back bombs bullets and missiles in Gaza Lebanon and Israel is the Middle East inching closer to full-blown War this is Inside Story [Music] [Music] hello there and welcome to the program I'm Nick Clark so Iran has carried out a major missile attack on Israel in retaliation it says to the killing of the leaders of hisbah and Hamas as well as a senior commander of the Revolutionary guard Israel says it intercepted most of the around 200 missiles with the
help of the United States world leaders are urging both sides to step back from the brink of a region War but Israel has promised to respond warning Iran will pay for what it describes as a big mistake so what would that response look like and after nearly a year of War on Gaza and a campaign of Air Raids in Lebanon is Israel able to fight on a third front we'll discuss that and more with our guests but first this report from Feria car these were the skies above Israel's largest city Tel Aviv on Tuesday night
Iran fired nearly 200 missiles Israel says most were intercepted but several appeared to get through one landing near the headquarters of the mosad intelligence agency Tran says the attack was in response to the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan nazrah and Hamas political Chief Ismael hania as well as the killing of several senior Iranian military officers in a statement president massud pesan said this action was in defense of Iranian interests and citizens prime minister Netanyahu should know that Iran is not warmongering and will stand firmly against any threat this is just a glimpse of our capabilities
do not engage in conflict with Iran in tan people came out to the streets to celebrate leaders there have promised an even larger strike if Israel responds and Israel has pledged to do just that Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it the Iranian regime doesn't understand our determination to defend ourselves or our resolve to strike back at our enemies some missiles were intercepted with the help of Jordan and the United States which has been anticipating the assault the attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective and this is Testament to
Israeli military capability and US military I'm also also a testament to intensive planning between the United States and Israel to anticipate and defend defend against the Brazen attack we expected President Biden has reaffirmed America's Ironclad support for Israel even as it rebuffs Washington's calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon other world leaders are urging the country to step back from the brink of a regional War but with daily bombardment of Gaza ground troops in Lebanon and the pledge to strike Iran not even Israel's closest allies appear able to deter it from escalating this conflict
Freddy AAR Al jazer for Inside [Music] Story okay let's take this on let's bring in our guest from Tel Aviv we are joined by Dan Perry who's a journalist and author of the book Israel and the Quest for permanence in London is roxan farman farian who's a professor of modern Middle East politics at the University of Cambridge and in Berlin is Julian Barnes Daisy who is the director of the middle eastern North Africa program at the European Council for foreign relations uh hello all Dan I'd like to start with you if I may Dan Perry
in Tel Aviv there's a piece that you wrote I'm guessing it must been pretty soon after the Iranian attacks last night laying out three possible courses of action and I think it'll help our discussion if I just very quickly go through them one a more symbolic response against Iran uh taking into account the fact that Iran did Telegraph the attack and no Israeli lives were lost two two a tactical strike on Iran perhaps against oil installations forcing Iran to reconsider further retaliation or three a third path you said an attempt to overhaul the Region's balance
of power where Israel might use bunker busting bombs to [ __ ] Iran's nuclear facilities destroy oil facilities block a ports which would have course in my words uh bring with it implicit danger of the war spreading further a field of those three Dan Perry which do you think is the most likely a lot depends on what happens uh behind closed doors and talks with the Americans who despite uh protestations I think are pretty closely um aligned with Israel and probably coordinating with Israel if the Israelis um extract from the Americans a credible promise of
a of a paradigm shift Visa V Iran and for support um in their project to eliminate the Hezbollah threat in Lebanon which I think frankly is a favorite to Lebanon then then they might suffice with a symbolic response note that of my three I I really discount the possibility of zero response uh because there the feeling is strong in Israel that you just can't absorb 200 ballistic missiles one of the most con concentrated missile attacks I think in history of warfare and and do nothing not only because you know of uh schoolyard infantile Notions of
petty Revenge but because because doing nothing would encourage further such aggression I understand there's a war of narratives here but from from Israel's perspective Iran has no business surrounding it with proxy militias uh fermenting so much chaos on its borders uh or firing rockets at its major cities so Israel feels AG grieved and when a country is AG grieved they might react uh badly Roan F and farian when Iran made the calculation to fire those missiles yesterday they will have tried you assume to make an educated guess on Iran on Israel's on Israel's likely response
how do you think they think Israel will respond well I think they were very calculated in being sure uh to avoid civilian casualties I think that's been one of the reasons why in this war Israel has been uh condemned for the way that it has conducted this war as the degree of Civilian casualties so Iran has uh attempted to distinguish its actions as quite different than Israel's and I think that it has also calculated not just Israel's response but the way that the other Arab uh neighborhood would uh respond in other words those that are
in the Gulf turkey and uh Egypt for example which are uh little by little what Iran hopes is are coming together uh to create an Islamic front if you will against the uh attacks by uh Israel in both Lebanon and on Gaza so I think it it expects a retaliation I think that's what we saw the first time around in April but because these were targeted very much at uh uh military targets the uh response it hopes will I imagine not be one that will draw the United States into a larger war and you look
at it very briefly what's your sense would it be which of those three would it be a more symbolic response a tactical strike or or that with you know an attempt to overhaul the Region's architecture well I think that it's been generally considered that to hit Iran's uh nuclear facilities is a huge gamble for Israel despite the fact that it has a history of wiping out other countries um nuclear facilities because they are located deep inside Iran and because there are so many of them so I think probably my feeling is that there will be
a symbolic response but one that perhaps is bigger than the last symbolic response in uh in April Julian I'm going to come to you in just a second but Dan you wanted to jump in well yeah I I I certainly understand the the the the importance that no one was killed in Israel and it is frankly amazing and I think Testament to many things including the American assistance the the the the impressive quality of Israel's air defenses and uh and the fact that Iran appears indeed to have tried to limit its own success by telegraphing
what it was going to do to the Americans and the Russians that said the idea that Iran targeted uh uh military bases with respect to my colleague in London it's pretty close to absurd I was in the center of Tel Aviv conurbation of three million people and there were interception going on over my head now you can say it's based at military headquarters right in the center of Tel Aviv sure you can say that you could say the one the bomb that landed on the Herz Lea Beach uh was you know half mile away from
one of the Mad headquarters and you can pretend that's relevant it trashed a restaurant and landed closest to a major condominium apartment building there there's no way you can say they targeted only military bases if they do that isolated bases come had dozens and dozens of come back that very briefly very briefly Roan Dan we'll come back to you in a sec Roan very briefly to that and then I must move on to Julian yes um I think the facts speak for themselves and that there were no civilian casualties and to send over 200 uh
plus missiles of the caliber that Iran did it means that it was very carefully calibrated not to create civilian Cas okay Julian bares Daisy what is your sense then of what path Israel will take to retaliation to what extent will they go is that they're going to have to do more uh than they did following the the April attacks by Iran um and at that moment it was more of a symbolic response I think Netanyahu has made clear that we should expect something more emphatic this time round uh 200 ballistic missiles is a far more
serious attack uh than than happened in April and I think you know equally important this comes to the backdrop of Israel feeling more confident and aggressive I think than at any moment in the course of this conflict in terms of its ability to go after Iran obviously we've seen them uh take Serious measures against Hezbollah in many ways decapitating the the top leadership of of the movement and there's a real sense I think coming out out of Israel that this is a moment to remake the region and by that they mean really um striking Iran
in a more powerful way that that that knocks out their strategic capabilities and I think the danger is uh that the Americans seem to be on board with this we saw an article in Politico yesterday in which senior Biden Administration officials were seemingly encouraging Israel along these lines and I'm very worried I think this is a very dangerous illusion we've seen multiple attempts over the last 25 years to to remake the Middle East and on every occasion it leads to more conflict destruction and state collapse and I don't think the Iranians will not respond to
a more serious attack in kind so we're locked in this escalation ladder right now and there doesn't appear to be any serious offramp all right well we'll try and discuss that a little bit to see what what potential there is for an offramp but Dan uh the former Israeli Prime Minister neali Bennett he tweeted earlier that Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East we must act now he said to destroy Iran's nuclear program its Central Energy facilities and to fatally [ __ ] this terrorist regime
uh we have the justification he said we have the tools that's a former prime minister uh Dan saying the moment is now the appetite is pretty evident there in Israel yeah look you have to understand Israel is a deeply divided society as regards what to do with the Palestinians and should there be a state in the West Bank you know a few miles from Tel and Jerusalem perhaps being taken over by Hamas these are complex issues where Israel is badly divided and Nan's policies are not popular but Iran's chaos project in the region support for
the houis and which have brought a half million casualties to Yemen support for Hezbollah that I believe is detested by most Lebanese uh support for the Shiite militias in Iraq all and especially the the nuclear program which is not an innocent nuclear program by France this is a nuclear program run by an aggressive theocracy that has more than hinted their wants to destroy Israel this stuff is uh uh basically consensual and it's consensual in Israel that this this whole thing is unacceptable now indeed for a country of 10 million to take on a country of
almost honor million is generally not that great an idea and there is respect for Iran's ability to defend itself or at least defend its right to commit this aggression so I think Israel is has been careful about taking on Iran directly but but the idea that if at all possible uh the non-democratic uh uh totalitarian theocracy in Iran must somehow be compelled to end what I'm calling its chaos project that's pretty popular and the question becomes a practical one you know what is the cost can it conceivably work and as I suggested in my first
response I think much will depend on whether they think they can get the Americans behind them and there is a ticking clock that is Iran's effort to achieve a nuclear weapon at which point it will be very impossible very difficult and perhaps impossible to deter now you can talk about escalation all you want would you have told Winston Churchill in 1940-41 not to escalate I mean there there's a point Dan let me let me we haven't got much time in the show Dan we we must move on because we we don't have a great deal
of time so roxan first of all just come back to that and talk to us a little bit about the what Dan was saying about this you know the shadow of the the nuclear project well I think that um I certainly agree with him that this war particularly against Hezbollah has brought uh many in the uh from what we see on the outside many in the Israeli uh community and Society together I think we're seeing polls where the uh support for Netanyahu has risen in the way he's conducting the war he has succeeded in taking
the international gaze off of Gaza uh despite Rising uh deaths in Gaza and uh I think it's extraordinary that in many ways um likewise we're not hearing anything about the hostages so I think he's uh setting out on a much larger project and uh the the question that I would like to to raise in this is something that no doubt those in Iran are also thinking about perhaps already having been in a situation like Israel in that it is alienating itself from the larger region enormously I think there is uh a case to be made
that Israel is becoming ever less absorbable in the region and I think that that is a an outcome it's got to think about if it's going to continue this uh this campaign uh against not only its neighbors but uh against Iran so about it's nuclear yes yeah no sorry I so Dan let me just give you the chance to come back to that and Julian will come back to you uh so any concern on that that feeling of ostracization that the this ongoing violence or the ongoing route that Israel is on will continue to ostracize
Israel in the eyes of many elements of the International Community uh look uh I think it certainly is a concern I think Israel's government has utterly failed in public diplomacy I don't think think they've conducted themselves very cleverly in Gaza by the way the deaths in Gaza are not rising in fact they've been far far less rate than before it's very low Leb web I don't think Israel is attacking its neighbors I think Israel is attacking hisbah in in Lebanon I think Israel feels grieved by uh by what uh uh uh she correctly says is
uh it's abandonment in much of global public opinion but they they mostly care about what the US does the US appears to be behind them and and to uh to underscore whereas Israel's policies V the Palestinians are uh in my personal opinion misguided to the point of suicidal in the West Bank in particular this issue with removing hisb from Lebanon I think Israel thinks um that this is not going to be so unpopular in in in the AR World note that Saudi Arabia has been holding up a to Lebanon because of his bala's influence in
Lebanon there's a lot of good that's going to be showered on Lebanon the minute hisbah is gone and I uh know from experience with Lebanese not just expatriates and opposition but just Lebanese who are not necessarily Shiites whose support is essentially bought and engineered by Iran we got to move it on we got to move it on we have to move it on just we have to move it on to Julian we need to move we need to move the conversation on please let's we've only got 10 minutes left we've already spend a lot of
time on this um so Julian and first of all Dan I should just say the numbers of people dying in Gaza is still going up uh jul it is an incredibly fraught dangerous time if Israel does choose route three which is targeting nuclear facilities and and crippling oil installations and so forth how dangerous a moment is this for the world well obviously it' be hugely dangerous and I think it's also just worth pointing out that that the kind of your option too is is quite easily ATT trct towards option three um you know we we
we start going back and forth in terms of attacks and I think we quite quickly end up in something wider obviously um a conflict that engulfs the the entire Middle East a more direct full encompassing conflict between Israel and Iran uh would be incredibly worrying and serious um we could see serious um and wine raging attacks by Israel but I think we're probably underplaying what Iran could still do towards Israel and also the capability of Hezbollah to launch wider attacks on Israel Israel um has faced attacks from Hezbollah since October 8th but Hezbollah has nonetheless
not used its higher uh quality and and more long-distance missiles upon the country obviously the fact that um Iran has Allied Partners in in in Syria and Iraq and Yemen points to broader ramifications there's energy Market ramifications there are some indications that Israel might go after Iran's oil facilities Iran inclined might have indicated that it will go after other Regional oil facilities to ensure that everyone pays the price uh so clearly we should be very worried uh there are enormous grave consequences to this in terms of the humanitarian suffering the destabilization um and the risk
of nuclear proliferation um so I don't think this is something to be taken lightly and I do think there needs to be much more serious effort to to try and get create an off-ramp here which to my mind does involve prev V ing the Israelis from doing something much more serious at this moment it does involve the necessity of a ceasefire in Gaza Roan where is the offramp as far as you're concerned well one of the things I wanted to mention was um there's also something that the foreign minister from Canada mentioned yesterday that there
are two other great powers that should possibly be more involved and I would say Russia already is more involved the Russian Prime Minister visited Iran the morning for the uh the launch of uh its missiles against uh Israel saying that Israel should not get involved in Lebanon it should withdraw and so it's obviously beginning to use its voice in terms of discussing this region and it uh has been the one that has supplied Iran uh whatever foreign uh Munitions it has and so we're seeing in some sense a balance by uh Russia against against America
in this and I think certainly the Chinese are uh looking in with with interest and uh I think it would be wiser for us to look at this as having global implications I completely agree with my colleague in Europe that um this is something that possibly uh without us even being aware of is backing into a much larger War if uh if the United States should get involved if Iran retaliates greater uh with greater uh intensity this could really become for the first time I'm seeing that this could become considerably larger in scope Dan Perry
both China and Russia have a strategic relationship of course with Iran and they could easily get swept up in all of this and and that has very serious implications doesn't it look I I certainly agree that if Israel um does a big action in Iran and the result isn't even bigger action the US gets pulled in it has interest all over the Persian Gulf China and Russia could be tempted to up the end with Taiwan and Ukraine and you're looking at possibly World War III I don't in any way I'm am I not sanging about
all this I I I personally hope that Israel does my option one and responds symbolically but but I because it can't do nothing but I also uh have written in the past that the world needs to stop tolerating the Iran chaos project and I think Israel will be in the background asking the US and uh the EU and NATO to promise that they will shortly after the US election go to Iran and say no more proxies no more nukes no more longer AG Rockets no more Insanity else you will face consequences now whether those involve
blockading its ports or degrading its oil installations or bunker busting its nuclear program I don't know but I think the US might might actually do this because there's a sticking clock with the nuclear Iranian deterrence coming up and the idea that Russia is a good faith interlocutor or that Iran is somehow uh uh a positive player in the Middle East guys friends on this panel it's absurd okay so may be julan where is the path where is the path to a diplomatic solution Julian so so I think that that really the only path towards a
diplomatic solution is is the US um we have seen the US offering full-hearted support for Israel both in terms of this offensive but also in terms of netanyahu's repeated failures to to engage with a viable ceas plan Gaza and the ongoing conflict there is the core of this ongoing problem whether we like it or not uh the solution towards a regional deescalation is a is a ceasefire in Gaza we then obviously have to deal with the wider implications the challenges and threats posed by Iran and its Regional Partners but the first step I think is
to reign in uh Israel's escalatory actions in Gaza it is a one that is now taking the fight to to Hezbollah in Lebanon in a more escalatory fashion and I think until Biden is prepared to put Netanyahu on that pressure under that pressure we aren't going to see an off round roxan diplomacy has abjectly failed on Gaza so far so in your view As You observe this situation and the danger that it presents do you think that the United States is capable uh if it has the will of dissuading Benjamin Netanyahu from this course that
he see determined to pursue well up until now nothing that the United States has suggested uh or appeared to be promoting uh has been adopted by the uh Israeli government certainly no ceasefire plan and uh although Biden has frequently noted that he's been working tirelessly to to find a diplomatic solution I think that uh it's clear there hasn't been one that has even been tried so I think the uh the the result at the moment is to show that the United States either doesn't have the influence or it has it is lacking the will and
I think that in some sense we can see the second part uh as much at play that the uh it's an election year it is not in many ways in the interest certainly of the dep the the uh kamla Harris and Biden uh Administration to to take uh strong steps at this point they are uh in need of of much of the um support that they can get and to keep the focus on domestic politics so I think uh certainly Netanyahu sees an opening for at least until the time of the election in order to
do uh an escalatory move because I don't think anything is going to really be exerted from Washington okay and Dan Perry on the US election there certainly there's not long to go to that happens is this how you think it's playing out in netanyahu's mind yeah I think he certainly has time to act until then because the US uh is is terrified of a major escalation so they they they might go along with a minor one uh they don't want to be seen as fighting with Israel that would harm them with Jews in Pennsylvania and
elsewhere they don't want to be seen this too much supporting Israel in an escalation that would harm them with Muslims in Michigan so it's a total wedge issue in the US and us would like for all this to go away uh but I think part of the complexity here is that even though some may be sanguin about a so-called ceasefire that leaves Hamas and Power in Gaza Israel has trouble with that scenario and so does the US which is why they haven't that much pressure at Israel there is this notion that Israel refuses to ceas
fire because what they like to fight let me assure you they don't the issue is they they they're in a pickle and they're not sure what more to do to get Hamas and hisbah to go away now both of these groups are funded and goed by Iran and therefore Iran is very much involved in the aggression against Israel it's complicated and there's not a lot of Rights and Wrongs here but I urge us to not be naive about about uh you know groups like hamas's boutis these are not good guys who want peace so we
got we have a problem and it requires cleverness and strategy and maybe some human decency as well yes the complexity is is very very real uh we're out of time the coming hours and days will indeed be very telling but thank you all for joining us thank you to our guests Dan Perry roxan Farm and farmen and Julian Barnes Daisy and thank you too for watching you can check out the share again whenever you like at our website aljazeera.com and just tell us what you think at our Facebook page that's facebook.com AJ insidestory and you
can also join the conversation on X and on Instagram our handle for both is AJ insid story for me Nick Clark the whole team here goodbye for now [Music] make sure to subscribe to our channel to get the latest news from Al jazer
