Ethereum: End Of Year Outlook

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about ethereum and I just want to provide an end ofe Outlook talk about what I would consider to be the most likely path um what to look for in case ethereum deviates from that path and we'll just take it from there if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse tocom let's go ahead and jump in so I have

a lot to talk about today in this video and a lot of what we're going to talk about has been sort of like you know a lot of what we previously said has actually been happening this year essentially that when the eth Bitcoin valuation breaks down that generally marks the pullback the larger correction by the eth USD valuation so remember eth Bitcoin started to break down back over here in January there was a wick below it and then it really started to move below it in late March early April now when I talked about this

back then I think it was really difficult for people for a lot of people to sort of visualize how that could possibly happen especially given the ETF news for ethereum that occurred in May but what's fascinating is that history in fact did repeat itself and you know I spent many many nights sort of stressing about the eth Bitcoin valuation and how could it be different this time it didn't seem like it should it didn't seem like the ETF should make a big difference for the eth Bitcoin valuation and you know I think so many people

were against me that I I had trouble you know expressing it a ton I mean I I did express it but I didn't want to you know say it every single day um I mean you guys know my thoughts on on the matter at this point but when you look back what do you notice when you look back and and sort of the Dust has settled what do you notice you notice that eth Bitcoin started to break down here in late March early April of 2024 and you'll also notice that in 2016 eth Bitcoin started

to break down but in June in June of 2016 sort of a fake breakdown this time the fake breakdown occurred in April but if you look back at June of 2016 and marchapril of 2024 what you'll notice is that in March that marked the top for ethusd at least so far this year and I would contend it could easily be the top for the rest of the year if you look at 2016 when eth Bitcoin had the sort of the false breakdown in June that's when ethusd topped out so what you'll notice is that both

in 2016 and in 2024 when eth Bitcoin broke support even though it was a fake out the first time when it broke support that's what marked the top for ethusd and what ended up happening back then if we take a price range after the top in June ethusd then fell approximately 72% or so give or take I mean I you know I didn't maybe measure it exactly maybe this is a little high so about 71% about 71 71% drop that is what happened okay now if you just measure it from the weekly close it dropped

about 60% % if you ignore the wick if you just look at the weekly close it dropped approximately 60% now if you look at 2019 from the wick here it dropped around 60 68 to 69% excluding the pandemic again A lot of times when I do these videos I get in trouble with people because they're like well you can't include the pandemic I'm not right I'm not I'm I'm just simp L showing what happened before the pandemic about a 68% drop if you just take it from the weekly close it was about a 62% drop

so in line with what happened over here about a 61 to 62% drop now if you go to this cycle and you ignore the wick right if you ignore the wick and you just look at the weekly close so far eth is dropped around 51% 51% but a 60% drop would actually take it down to around 1,500 if it dropped say 70% from the wick which is what you know this one also did right here right if you take it from the wick about a 68 69% drop from this Wick over here about a 70%

drop so if you take it from the wick right there which went above 4K a 70% drop gets you all the way down to around $1,200 now obviously a lot of people are going to be mad and the path matters though right and I'm not saying it has to happen right now right I'm not I it doesn't have to happen immediately it could but if actually it follows 2016 and 2019 it won't happen until late September into October November time frame so let's take a look at that because one of the things that I do

I put out a video at the end of August every year where I say Wake Me Up When September Ends and the reason for that video the reason for that video is be actually I want to leave that one up the reason for that video is because normally if you look at monthly returns for crypto September is not a good month but I want to go look at ethereum and I want you to look at 2016 and 2019 now in 2016 and in 2019 ethereum was green that month and what do 2016 and 2019 have

in common with 2024 well 2016 was a having year for Bitcoin just like 2024 2019 has similarities because it was also the year that the FED caught rates during the last cycle so whether you look at 2016 or whether you look at 2019 ultimately September was green right it was green and so then it raises the question well if it is green in September why am I calling for it to potentially go lower later this year right if if you know if if it can go green in September could it also be green October November

December anything's possible guys you know I I felt I I felt very strongly about various things before some of the theories that I come up with pan out some of them don't and so I do want to talk about you know things to look for to to say all right well maybe it's not taking the path but the first thing I would say is if if eth does go up in late August and early to mid September where could it go right how high could it go and what I'm going to do to answer that

question is to just look at well what did it do in 2016 and in 2019 19 and also are there any clues today while in 2019 it's almost eily similar ethusd went down in August and then it went up into the bull market support band in September and it topped the week of September 16th the week of September 16th that's when it topped where is the bull market support band right now around 3K to 3200 now that's going to keep on coming down but it's between 3,000 to $3,200 now what's interesting is that if you

pull up if you pull up the CME gaps so if you pull up Bitcoin Futures and you look at Bitcoin and I don't do this that often you guys know that but if you pull it up for Bitcoin you'll see that there was a gap that Bitcoin filled at around 62 um you know around what 62 we go to the low there 62470 and then this high right there got close to filling it right it hasn't actually filled it yet did this one over here yeah this one right here filled it right so let me

remove the bullmark sport B so if you look at at this Wick right here you can see that that Gap got filled but if you look at the same chart for ethereum it hasn't been filled yet you see that there's a gap at 3K there's a gap at 3K so if we followed 2016 and 2019 and eth does go up in September from the current price a 3K eth is about a 13 to 14% move up what about a 13 to 14% move up you look at monthly returns for eth in 2016 guess what it

moved up about 14% again I'm not suggesting it has to go there normally when I have sort of a base case narrative that it'll go down later on I don't really care if it goes back up to that level or not but if you want to hedge your bets there does always exist exist a scenario where it goes up in September and instead of following the the route I'm suggesting in Q4 it always could just keep on going up right so I don't want people to fall into the Trap of thinking like oh well you

know B says it'll do this and and so I'm just going to sit on my hands and then if it doesn't go down in October November then you get mad at me so I would first say it's worthwhile to hedge your bets but I at least want to provide the reasoning for it you know and again you know there's going to be critics and that's honestly that's that's obviously perfectly fine um my rebuttal to the critics is mostly that I I don't really think any of them had $1,900 eth on their bingo card in August

uh whereas it was always my base case right and the reason it was my base case was because well it came back into the wedge and how many times have I said that's what's likely going to happen also if you look at ethereum in 2016 the first week of August it had a big wick down so my base case was for it to go back down to those levels because well that's what it always does after eth Bitcoin breaks down so if you're going to throw the shade at the view I would say you know

take a step back think about you know did you have $1,900 eth on your bingo card for August if you didn't then I I think you should at least be open-minded just like I'm trying to be openminded about you know maybe I'm wrong in Q4 okay um and it's possible and I I will talk more about that I mean it it is possible so I will be I'll try to be openminded about that but I do at least want to present the the case for the other outcome so in 2016 eth carried out a very

specific pattern and it's almost it's basically verbatim this time and what I'm talking about if you look at eth in 2016 every month that was Green in 2016 for eth has been Green in 2024 January February March January February March May and May and then you can see April was red for 2016 and 2024 and then may was green June July August was red 2024 and in 2016 June July and August was red now August could theoretically turn green but it would have a long way to go to get to being green considering considering it's

currently down 18% then in 2016 eth was Green in September so if the 2024 pattern is going to continue and eth is green in September it might make people think that the analysis I'm presenting has to be wrong if it's green in September but I'm suggesting that there still would be a scenario where it then goes down October November December okay now also look at 2019 because in 2019 eth was also red in July and August sort of leading into September it was Green in September and then barely Green in October but then very red

in November and December so regardless of whether it was 2016 or 2019 eth went down in Q4 and the best way to look at that would be to look at quarterly returns so if you look at quarterly returns for eth you can see that in 2016 eth went down in Q4 - 39% if you look at 2024 sorry 2019 it went down in Q4 28% if you look at 2024 it's possible right that it goes down in Q4 again so another thing to look at is is um and I'll get to the wedge a little

bit later it's a little bit more dubious um but if you look at monthly candles you look at monthly candles for ethereum and you just look at the the logarithmic regression band one of the things you'll notice on here is that in August of 2016 eth had a correction and it stopped the correction stopped right at the top of the regression ban just like it did in August of 2024 right and then in 2019 in August eth also went down to right into the regression band so August 2016 August 2019 August 2024 all look really

similar and they all have something in common right 2016 is like 2024 because it's the Bitcoin having year 2019 is like 2024 because it was the year of the FED cart rates and in both scenarios ethusd in August had a correction a pretty large correction at that and then in both years September was green and then Q4 was red now in 2016 it was all three months in 2019 October was barely green half a percent and then November December was pretty red but what do you notice about both 2016 and 2019 they both ended the

year with eth at the lower logarithmic regression trend line that's where they ended the year now one of the things I've struggled with some this year is the fact that there's this pattern by ethusd that played out in 2016 16 and this is honestly it it honestly was a a hurdle for for kind of my view for a long time and the reason is because I was looking at this over here and thinking well you know what happened back then was that eth got into this channel this range where it just oscillated between that range

right and it really didn't deviate out of it that much and then the following year eth broke out so it's possible that eth does go to new alltime Highs but it might not happen until next year in fact when ethusd had this initial surge in March while it did Wick above it in June eth USD did not durably go above that March 16 High until March of 2017 so it was a full year later what if something similar happens right where it's essentially you have to wait a full year after that March 2024 rally before

you actually see another high it's possible but again where was the issue like what the issue that I I was struggling with was this if you look in 2019 sorry in 2016 the wick in August just took you back down to the range low right so I was looking at 2024 and I'm like well if eth just goes back down to the range low then how can that be like how how can how can it go back down you know to to where I think it could go if it's just going to continue this pattern

because even if it sold off into Q4 it would still only sweep the prior low right it would only sweep the prior low even if it sold off in Q4 so if eth does rally in September and then sweeps the prior low in Q4 had the low stopped at 2500 which is essentially the equivalent of where it stopped in August of 2016 then it would have meant only going down to like 23 24 100 but in this case ethusd went actually quite a bit further down than that it went all the way down to 19900

now why is that important one of the things I've suggested is that this cycle could be a combination or this year could be really a combination of what we saw in 2019 with rate cuts and 2016 with this pattern where these Wicks to the downside are actually going much further than they did in 2016 one thing to keep in mind is that in 2016 after this Wick down after the wick ethusd weekly candles were all the way back up here near clo you know sort of mid-range closer to the top of the range but now

those weekly candles are still way down here at the bottom of the range suggesting that this is a slightly weaker version of 2016 now you don't really have to go guessing too much because you can see what happened with eth in 2019 when the FED cut rates and this is something I've I've I've expressed to you guys plenty over the last several years and essentially it goes something like this if you look at us interest rates you will see that ethusd rallied into the paws and it formed a wedge you see that wedge it formed

Med this wedge right here and then at some point it broke out of the wedge before rate cuts and then as rate Cuts arrived it fell back into the wedge right just before rate Cuts arrived because you can see it was falling down July 8th we didn't get rate Cuts until um until the very the very last week of of July it was like July 31st in fact I think is is when the rate Cuts actually I'm just fixing this so it makes a little bit more sense um but it was actually July uh 31st

where you had rate cuts and you can see ethusd fell back into that wedge in July and then after rate Cuts ethusd sold off you see that and it went below the wedge after rate Cuts arrived now look at this cycle I've argued this for like a long time you could argue that this wedge is the equ equivalent of what you saw in 2019 You could argue that right and it's just bigger because the rate the the hiking cycle was bigger but do you see the similarities and so perhaps the reason why ethereum in 2024

has been a slightly weaker version of 2016 is because there's also some elements of what happened in 2019 baked into the price action where it actually did go below some of those lows that were previously set so there exists a scenario as well where eth USG does not get a big rally in September and you know maybe it just says to hell with 3K and it just kind of slowly grinds back into this wedge right here now it could Wick back up right I mean if you look if you look over here closely at at

what ethusd did back in 2019 what you'll notice is that right before rate Cuts right right around the time R it actually did have a wick up right where from the low it rallied like 25 26% so it actually did get a pretty nice bounce off the low and from the weekly close it still rallied about 14% now a 14% rally for ethusd from that Weekly close would put it back at around 2900 or so so around that $3,000 Mark so you could have a scenario like 2019 where it still Fades into this wedge but

it doesn't mean it can't Wick back up to you know to 3K or something to fill the Gap so then I was wondering well you know what what's interesting about this September because if you look closely at ethusd in 2019 in September you can see it rallied it it it bled into August and in September it rallied and then it topped the week of September 16th and then the following week it got a big drop and it erased all those prior gains that it had in September you see that the last week of September now

but again it topped September 16th now go to 2016 and we're going to do the same exercise what happened in September of 2016 eth USD rallied you see that same rally it rallied and it topped the week of September 19th was flat the following week and then in October it got a pretty big selloff so what do you notice September 19th the week of September 19th and the week of September 16th is when ethusd put in its lower high what's going on this September around September 16th September 18th right this was this was sorry September

19th we're on September 16th of the 19th what's going on glad you asked let's take a look at what the fed's going to do well the next fed meeting September 18th and they're likely going to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points my guess is are going to cut 25 basis points so you have a scenario here where you can see exactly what happened in 2016 in going into September and going into September in 2019 and in both cases ethusd had a little bit of a rally right had a little bit of a

rally and then it gave everything back and More in Q4 and then it was the following year that the market picked back up and then you had a recession and obviously that that changed things um but again it was the following year that the market durably picked back up so when you look at 2016 if you want to compare it to a having year because you know I think the the biggest criticism I've gotten this year is why do you keep comparing Bitcoin to 2019 why why don't you compare it to 2020 or 2016 well

again this is one of those scenarios where a lot of the people that were the most vocal about about how crazy it was compared to 2019 we're also saying that we were going to go to much higher prices by now and now you look at it and you're like oh well you know it kind of just looks like 2019 right it's a tempered version of it but it still looks more similar to 2019 than it really did to say anything going on over here why is that well gold broke out around the same time us

dominance hit its trend line it's long-term trend line at the same time and that told you that it was it was likely time for a correction and I said I mean I said many times we'd likely get a correction when gold broke out and when e Bitcoin broke down and honestly it was really hard for me when the ETF was going to get approved for ethereum I was kind of in a in a tough spot because on one side I was like I I want this stuff to be approved you know but on the other

side it's like everyone's dunking on me because you know they they think wasn't included in the model or something um or in My Views and I said before I don't really think the ETF impacts that it could right I'm not saying it can't but that was my view back then um so you know I I I keep going back to this idea that what if you know what if eth is just playing out like 2016 and and 2019 and I was thinking you know how how can that be if the regression band for ethereum is

way down here and in 2016 it never it never durably broke it never really went below the range low with the exception of this single Wick so I was looking at 2024 and I'm like well you know unless it goes really far below it how can it possibly get to the bottom of the logarithmic aggression trend line how but I feel like you have your answer now right I mean because you can see that this Wick went down to it just like it did in August of 2016 it's just that it required a deeper correction

to get there just like it did in 2019 so I'm saying I'm saying that it's it it's a combination of that and this where it it looks like 2016 in the sense of a top in March and a top in June right a top in March and then a top in June and then the next top was in September but because ethusd is still at the range low the next local top for ethereum if it follows that pattern might not even make it back to 4K because again when it made it over here to that

Wick low the weekly closes were back up in the mid part of the range whereas these weekly closes are at the lower part of the range so if you do get a rally it might just be back up to the bull market support ban because if you look in 2016 ethusd rallied and stayed above the bull market support band on its weekly closes you see that this Wick was just a wick and then it was back above the 21 we EMA and it stayed above it through September and then it finally lost it in Q4

but if you look at 2019 when rate Cuts occurred it also lost the bull Mark sport band and then when it rallied in September it got rejected by the 20we SMA and the 21 we EMA and remember where is the 20we SME now it's at around 3200 but it's going to continue coming down where's the 21e EMA it's around $3,050 where is the gap the CME Gap it's right around $3,000 so again you could always have a scenario where you get a path that looks something like this where ethusd goes back up to the bullmark

send in September let's say by the week of September 16th and then sells off again into the end of the year and then gets a big bounce out of it next year right that is always a possibility now it doesn't have to happen right I I I could be wrong about this view um but I I think it's at least worth considering especially if you didn't have $1,900 eth on your bingo card granted long term I don't think $1,900 eth is going to be that bad of a price if you're thinking about what the price

of a theorum could be in 10 years um but you can see that inbs 2016 and in 2019 same general pattern whether you take it you know whether you look at it like that or you look at the wedge you know and you could look at it the same way rather you look at it like that or you look at this longer term wedge it's kind of doing the same thing whether you're bias is 2019 comparison or whether your bias is a 2024 comparison it's a weaker or the 2016 comparison it's a weaker version of

2016 and it's been a longer version than 2019 in terms of how long this has taken you want to see something really interesting it's dubious I should probably have my dubious speculation t-shirt on um look at this pattern I don't know why I focus on this stuff but sometimes once you see it you can't unsee it um look at this pattern by eth in 2019 so from low to low eight weeks from this low if you like connect the um sorry I'm trying to let I need to get the bullmark sping off here so I

can see these Wicks a bit easier so if you connect yeah these lows so this one to this one and this one to this one and this one over here eight weeks and then connect it again from here sorry where from like right here to this one 12 weeks connect this one to the next one 12 weeks 8 12 12 okay who cares right interesting pattern keep it in mind 81 12 12 so this was 50% more the second touch was 50% longer on the trend line so it was 8 weeks and then 12 weeks

and then 12 weeks so it was like 2 months and then three months and then three months now look over here really similar it's just longer I pointed this out before 23 weeks then 46 weeks so instead of 50% more double double so 23 to 46 double go out 46 again right around this time right and you can see we already Wicked back down there so I look at this stuff and I'm like you know it it really just seems like a longer version of it and and it's just taking so long to play out

that it's easy to to sort of disregard and say y that can't happen right it's easy to disregard but I will say you know it's possible that I'm wrong about this and I would say that if I am wrong about it my guess is that you know you would need to you would really really need to see eth taking out this high right here right so if it can take out 3500 then that would be evidence that my view is wrong and you should no longer you know think too too much about my view in

that case because then it would seem to be deviating a lot um if it were to say put in a a higher high if it goes back to 3K that that's not anything different than what you might otherwise expect in fact if you connect these this low to that low right there you can see how if ethusd were to go back up to the bull market sport Band by like mid September that's where it could easily get rejected and then go back down remember after eth Bitcoin breaks down ethusd gets a pretty big drop it

already got one but it's possible that it gets another and I you know if it does get another big drop that that could be your you know what you would consider to be a soft Landing a lot of people have said you know do you have to have a hard Landing for eth USG to get this drop I don't even I think a soft Landing can do it right I mean in 2016 we dropped down here 70% we didn't have a hard Landing in 2019 we dropped down here we didn't have a hard Landing the

hard Landing came the following year and then it went below the regression band so I I I think that in that case you know you have to think think that like you don't have to have a hard Landing just for eth to go down in fact a lot of people are confused why eth is going down because the nasdaq's going up right and if you overlay the NASDAQ onto this chart it shouldn't be that weird when the FED were the year the FED cut rates last cycle 2019 eth USG started to go down the NASDAQ

was still going up here right the NASDAQ while eth has been going down the NASDAQ still been going up it's not that crazy right I mean it really isn't it's it's it's the same thing but we complicate it like we over complicate it and we say well this time is different but the reason is because you know eth is further out on the rist curve it's further out on the rist curve therefore than the NASDAQ therefore it it sells off sooner right and that's why I think eth has been struggling and the NASDAQ has done

a lot better and even here the NASDAQ was going up even after eth went to the lower logic aggression trend line even over here when in 2016 when eth went down to the lower logic aggression trend line the NASDAQ was going up that entire time so you can't really look at at the NASDAQ and say well if it's going up eth has to go up because in 2016 when eth went to the lower logger than the gron which I've called home before obviously and I've been mocked leastly for it but um when it went there

the NASDAQ was going up in 2019 when it went there the NASDAQ was going up guess what nasdaq's been going up eth has been going down since March so my guess is that if eth were to get a rally I would guess that it wouldn't go much higher than 3K I would guess it would get rejected by the bullmark sport Ben this year and go above the bullmark sport Ben again next year that's what I would guess I could be wrong and I I feel like I've grown a lot as an investor because I've you

know the Market's humble everyone um I'd like to think that my loudest critics have also been humbled but um I I don't think uh you know I I think they'll always find a reason uh to to troll or whatever even though even though you know the dunks that occurred back over here and over here we all premature because I mean eth just went down um but you know we're all on our own journey and and you know I think everyone's kind of in a different position so I I do think there is a case to

be made that this could play out right after all this time I think if it's going to play out the finale of it won't likely be until the end of the year because in 2016 the low occurred in December before it bounced and in 2019 the year the the low occurred in December before it bounced so because of that if history were to repeat itself in 2024 if the if the pattern continues my guess is that it won't really get a durable bounce that can take it to New highs until 2025 that doesn't mean that

3K can't happen it just means that it's going to be a lot harder to see you know the more the higher prices that people want to see and I I think the biggest thing that people have overlooked is the importance of of Bitcoin valuations for cryptocurrencies because in both 2016 and in 2019 when eth Bitcoin broke support eth USD then dropped 60 to 70% now eth Bitcoin could actually be a lot closer to finding a low than ethusd in terms of you know the current trends um normally you know after eth Bitcoin breaks down it

it finds a low within about 3 months or so so you know it's certainly possible that eth Bitcoin could find a low really soon and as I've said before if if it doesn't go below 04 before the end of the year then that's my my guess is that's the bottom I still think there's a good case that it could go lower than 04 and but if again if it doesn't happen by the end of December then it's probably not going to happen so that's generally my view and as far as eth Bitcoin I would say

that you know if it if it does this right if it if it gets a big sell off into the end of the year and then and then in 2025 it would probably get a bigger bounce if it gets a slower selloff then next year it probably gets a smaller bounce and if it just says sideways if it goes up here and then back down and then back up my guess it would be an even more pathetic bounce so the lower it goes the more impressive the 2025 bounce is what I would say but yeah

those are my views um definitely could be wrong and you know I think some other pieces of evidence that that could support if he does go back up to that level is that some of the lower market cap alts are starting to pop off a little bit so it kind of seems like they're wanting to they're sniffing out the rate cut they're wanting to Rally into the rate cut as well um in fact if you were to look at like others Bitcoin you know you'll notice that a lot of times when it comes it sets

a low and then sort of double bottoms rally back up to the bullmark sport band and then go down right here low double bottom rally back to the 20 we and then go down same thing low double bottom does it rally back up to 20we SME and then go down it's possible Right even even total 3 minus USD divide a Bitcoin right it's going back up potentially to that bullmark sport band so those are my views um I could be wrong and if I am wrong then I will try to be as quick as I

can to tell you I'm wrong um my guess is that I would say it in October I mean that's you know that would be the time frame at which I would find out if my view in Q4 is wrong or not right I mean if if eth continues to aggressively go up in October uh then I think my view would be wrong and if it fades after the rate cut arrives then I think there's more evidence to suggest that my view could be correct so that's where I am right now I think it makes sense

to be hedged obviously I've said that before especially with eth Bitcoin all the way up point 43 I can't tell you how many nights I was so stressed about this stupid ratio and you know I I was right about it the entire time but you know there's one thing I've learned there's nothing waiting for you at the end of being right you know there's nothing waiting for you um doesn't really matter and I that's kind of a lesson I've learned uh the hard way you know a lot of people don't care about Bitcoin valuations so

there's nothing really waiting for you at the end of being right about stuff like this um so I don't think I'm going to be as vocal next cycle about it but that's where we stand in in the cryptoverse those are my views on ethereum um and I would say that the if if if eth is going to Rally my guess is is going to do it in September if you look at the 2019 view it won't be as impressive of a rally if you look at the 2016 view it'll be slightly more impressive but still

be a lower high that's where I think the market stands if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse