The Final Surge of the Market with Henrik Zeberg & Marbobsix

welcome to charting across the board where today we brid the gap between fundamental analysis and Technical Precision I am marup 6 your host and today we have a very special guest joining us Henry seber Henrik is a renowned micro economies and Market strategies widely respected for his work in connecting economic Trends Henrik it's such a pleasure to have you here today how are you doing I'm amazing I feel amazing it's um you know Markus developing now in a nice way so uh so thanks for having me on for chat on about this thank you for

joining us we have uh we're again a group of small traders who like to dive into the technicals however today we like to combine the two of them as you are in microeconomist to see where we are today there has been a shift in Market sentiment since 2022 at the cycle low to current levels and we like to know where we are today where do you see the markets heading between 2025 and 2026 so so first of all I think we if we start off about the market low that you talked about 2022 where everybody

seemed to be so bearish and uh and people were calling for recession at that point um which was uh actually very very clear to me back then that that was we were nowhere near a recession um so I I do technical analysis but I also work with a uh business cycle model which is one where you actually take all the macro uh indicators in and you massage them technically and then you will actually get a view on with which direction the econom is going and uh and this is before you start your technical analysis because

if you just start from technical analysis on a chart and with Eliot waves especially you can make you know tons of mistakes so in 2021 I I I looked at uh when you know looking at the the business C clearly told me that after the um Corona stimulus we got which was you know gigantic across the world we still had a push up in the market and even though the inflation was you know having an effect on things and that was really what we saw it was an inflationary uh decline so decline because of inflation

uh that's something markets do not like they the markets do not like inflation not too not too high of inflation and uh and that was what we saw but we did not see an economy in the business cycle that was rolling over there was nothing suggesting that in my model so I was you know extremely bullish back in uh in in summer and into the Autumn of 2022 and uh I could see on the extensions the technical analysis that I did I said well I think we were going up to around 66,000 6100 even and

uh and here we are and uh obviously now people have been first they were very you know no we cannot and we saw the the pullbacks and people saying okay slowly you know people started to get into it and and the market took off and if we look at some of the the monthly candles and the and these and also especially the three Monon candles you'll see that those are you know gigantic those are the ones that so when I I talked about a blowoff top it was really because I could see that you will

have a very strong move higher up to around this level of 6100 um and uh and then now we are you know getting closer to that and as we see in every cycle top or cycle bottom you will always have people standing at the opposite side of where you are supposed to be I mean when you start to see yourself amongst the mo the majority of the of the people that's when you should start to worry that's also why you say the the stock market climbs a wall of worry and that is that is what

you need you need to have that kind of worry into it before you you actually will see the market gets going because if everybody's already in and bought in and you know hugely in then then that's a problem so for now I'm still bullish and I have a Target right now that is I just updated that based on what we had technically here with the bottom I think was just the other day uh and I think we have now the last wave up and I think it's going to be very very strong and that will

be the very definition of the last Spike in the blowoff top so when I talked about a blowoff talk back then I was talking about these this strong bull market we have actually seen but obviously also a very strong end to it and then and and a spike into the top uh I think that is going to develop now it's going to develop into the Trump inauguration into the first few months of his presidency and then I think we're going to see a top in the market I think there are a good CH there is

a good chance we already have seen the top in a lot of markets out there so we've seen the top in certain markets in Europe we've seen in the Nifty we've seen in the nick and with potentially also very as I see it's seen in the Dow Jones so it seems to me now that you're starting to see a rotation of uh Capital into uh into the tech sector and that is going to be now uh you know pushed even higher with the Trump taking office the whole you know Tech um narrative that is going

going to be um put on the table as I understand it also and with crypto and and the likes so I think there's going to be a nice spike a strong spike in tech stocks I don't think the more traditional Industries or the industrial sector of the S&P is going to do you know very well and I think we're heading into a very big top just like we had a very big bottom in 2022 we will have a very very big top here in 25 and uh and that's what I see that's uh certainly an

incredible demonstration of how powerful these tools can be when when used together and I can be I can uh certify these that I before um uh reaching out to you I of course did some research my own due diligence to to see where you are standing in the in the market based on technical analysis and not only now because one of the issues that I see as a as a Trader is that some people are often uh bearish the entire time right regardless of any switch within the market Trend or bullish so at some point

of course as a broken clock they're going to be right at some point however yes correct however when to shift the um trend is also very important to identify when that market Trend may occur or the uh switch in Market Trend may occur and not only in 2022 you have been absolutely bullish you have been when the when the market was extremely uh pessimistic back then you were calling for a bullish which I indeed did my research I found your your your work and I indeed I can certify that that's correct not only 2022 however

I also went to before the covid crash based on your your count on in the chart and you were uh exhibiting a a market top also in 2019 uh 2019 correct November 20 uh 2019 prior to co even right before Co even became a thing however you were also you you have an amazing go back then also calling for for a top that indeed occurred in 2022 correct or 2020 I'm sorry and then since then we have uh this new market however now the sentiment are starting to become extremely bullish at these highs so uh

many of our listeners are either retail Traders trying to navigate these volatile markets what advice would you give them for 2025 and and Beyond without this being a a financial advice sure um no I I I think it's not about just you know jumping onto the first conclusion and I very often when you stand yourself you know amongst the the largest crowd then you need to think am I really you know with the right Crow and that's that's not what I do I mean I I base it on the analysis that I see I base

it on the that you um you know markets and and bull markets they last for a certain amount of time and you have these Fibonacci levels that I use that tells us that we're getting close and if you look to so many indicators like why I actually anticipated and expected something of the crash and decline in in 2020 Al 2019 was that uh we saw exactly the same we see now we saw the the business cycle having a uh a um recession call at that point and we saw yields Market yields two a year starting

to decline uh and we saw also that there was what is called negative Divergence on the uh on the S&P 500 on a weekly basis and if you go take a look now we have all that we have not seen the yields dropping just so fast yet they have declined we have seen the top of it and that's the only puzzle that I need really to see see that that really starts to decline I think maybe these this time is a not it's not very different different from the last time but it's a little different

uh because of the inflation that we have had and I think also we have passed into a new regime inflationary wise but I still say that we have the the the recession indicator and we have so many things that are deteriorating in the in the in the US economy at this point and I cannot understand when people start to talk about that we have a strong economy and one of the things for instance we talked about a strong market report here on on Friday and uh so 200 what was it I 250 6,000 jobs that

is an adjusted number that is after seasonal adjustment and actually if you take that away you'll actually see that the number is quite different you know very much lower so that is uh that is one thing it could have been you know anything from 100,000 or something like that to 150,000 and we also know that the the nonfarm payrolls are very very wrong often we saw in November how they were ad adjusted by 88,000 jobs you know removed or taken out of it from the last period so I don't trust this when they talk about

the economy strong this is what I will say to you people and to listeners is that go look I mean there's a famous sentence in um in the uh in The Big Short where actually he says that nobody actually looks and that is so true and no one's paying attention no one is paying attention and and if you look at the one of the things you can look at is the average um duration of unemployment which is actually a very very fundamental things it tells you about how fast can people actually find a job again

you can actually see that it's rising it's rising fast it Rose by 5% by the number on Friday which was a fantastic number according to the BS uh BLS before we see the revision but if you look at the people that actually how long they have been registered as unemployed you can actually see that going up and that we only see into recessions so when I have the leading indicators telling me like the uh yield spread and so on that have been inverted and we have the largest largest inversion at all times and we start

to see you know these things happening and even though I hear the FED say it I I don't trust them one bit so I I you know look at it and I say what can I see myself let me see it with my own eyes I mean I'm as intelligent as the next guy so why don't I just you know look at it and then uh you can see that things are really not as strong as as they as they they try to say so um and that fits into the narrative now that we are

getting closer to the top of the stock market based on technical analysis and you'll start to see the divergences and it's look on the why on the on the weekly chart on the S&P on and on the NASDAQ as well on the weekly chart you got negative Divergence going I think it's all the way back to I can remember when it was actually March or something in uh 24 and and we just need to final leg up in my OT way were and and that's what we are waiting for so my target is 6,500 I'm

expecting that to be on the S&P and and of course nobody will see and there will be nobody you know ringing a bell there at the top but that's where I think we're going to top out and then you will not see a decline immediately into it's not like you know of course there'll be a decline but then it will come up again and people say oh look now things are going back to fine and Trump will take care of it the FED will take care of it nothing I mean kenri you don't just don't

understand the economics and and the markets and uh and then again it will take a while before things really start to develop but I think you're going to see that that will actually be the top and you'll see very strong Decline and with a um market capitalization at this point here at above 200% which is way above what we saw in 1929 way above the crazy bubble we had in 2000 and we you know we looked at it and we say this was a crazy bubble and now we have something that is even bigger than

that so when people are looking at these things and then say maybe I'm now standing with the crowd all shouting oh all fine all clear like they were shouting oh my God we we falling all the over the into the abyss now in 2022 and and in other times just think just go and look at for yourself and then check out what is it that you see and why is it that you bullish don't just adopt that and it's and again also think like if a if you want to go buy a jacket in some

shop you know then you and you see it going up three times the price it had you know like Tesla you know just 90 days ago would you then go buy this jacket still or would you actually think it's actually become rather expensive probably you'll think it's rather expensive you'll see why is I mean and and that's not how it works with stocks it's just the opposite so people think oh it's went up three times I gotta buy this one it's fantastic and that's just the opposite of what you need to do you need to

buy things when they are on discount and people are running away from it not when everybody is running into it and then check out the different Fibonacci levels obviously because markets can stay irrational and stay bullish for longer than we can we expect I did not expect that we could see into 25 I mean I'll just say that I I expected that we should have seen the top in this before 25 I'll just say that I you know lay down and say that for me it's not about the timing it's about the levels that we

need to reach the Fibonacci levels the technical levels that we need to reach and before I have if I cannot do the count all the way up and I get my level then I cannot call it and then it may be that we passed through a little extra time but it's not the same as saying it's all off the thing is that we have negative Divergence we we have the recession signal setting off and it's more about we just get this final push and I would love to see everybody getting all eoric now about uh

you know whatever should come after the Trump presidency or his inauguration and all that because I think I think you know the markets will be markets and uh and people are just buying into the into the bubble that was a little long sorry about that I speak to no no no that's absolutely a great analogy and I believe is uh about staying inform formed and disciplined which is sometimes is it's easier said than done uh as you're focusing on the micro you're talking about the yield uh a rotation within the technology sector uh more than

we already perceive or experience during 2023 and 2024 another higher level in in the NASDAQ particularly yeah yeah I think I think the NASDAQ I can't remember I think I have H for Nasdaq I think we got um level of uh 20 what is it here I think 20 24,000 you know around that level will be will be the top so you can imagine that's quite a a move from where we are now and especially with uh that kind of steepness I think we can see on it I think it's going to be a very

very steep um rally into the final top so it'll be almost impossible at that time when you reach that to get you know just a bearish you know um message out there so I I I call it my sorry my BS uh indicator on Twitter but the moments I say oh I think something is stopped out here and the more I get of oh man you just don't get and you just you know you're just stupid the more I get of that I think okay seems like I'm you know we're pretty close here so um

so so let's see I'm I'm very bullish at this point I have to say it's it's going to be very very Steep and I think we going to have a fantastic all season in crypto Bitcoin I got 123,000 as a Target around that level for the for Bitcoin going into its final phase as well and uh topping out later also than the NASDAQ and the S&P uh and all even later than that so I think we will not the Euphoria will will you know um persist for some time now and it can actually persist into

April or even May uh for the SS but I I I think the will will see the top in the stock market before that and especially because there is kind of an anger for me the anchor is that we already have seen some of these tops in the rest of the world the Nick the Nifty uh the Dow Jones I think it could also potentially I think there's a good chance and that is the as as I said the rotation of capital going from industrial sector into the tech sector where it's more about you know

AI fantastic it's you know based on on F more and expectations of future earnings then it is about how much do you actually produce uh in in terms of you know manufacturing Goods or whatever it is so um so I think there's a fantastic face in front of us here and uh but it's just about getting out at the right time that's uh again a skill that can be developed over time I believe some of our are new to trading however they can apply this um experience from your end as a micro uh strategies which

I'm assuming you're when when we're speaking about the micro not only the fundamentals you're looking at the micro within the chge too where the weekly and the monthly are the larger time intervals when it comes to charting to make this uh projection and speaking of projections uh I read somewhere that you're calling a pretty bold call that we are going to experience a crash or a market crash Wars a 1929 that is uh I need to adjust that that was said one time I was actually miss uh so it was not worse than 1929 it

was the worst since 1929 but I am actually fighting against that thing okay okay okay headline that was made wrong and then you know it just persist out there so but actually what I said and I and I maintained that view it's the worst bare Market worst recession and bare Market since 1929 I see so at least worse than 2008 financial crisis to finalize the interview Henrik when you're talking about yield are you expecting are you looking at a 10-year yield as a barometer of economic growth for a decline or do you see an inversion

an inverse correlation between equities market and the yields Rising the other one dropping what are your your views on on fixed income so I I I you know I I first of all it's about the the business Cycles again and this is where people um you know a little set off by what is it actually we need to look at and in which sequence and there are bus part of the business cycle there's something called leading indicators there's something called coincident indicators there something called lacking indicators and the leading indicators are Market Yi uh are

yield spreads so for instance the 10 year minus the two-year and so on and there are others initial claims and others then you have the coincident which are the ones that actually fluctuate with GDP and that is uh labor market so the NFP numbers it's the production and so on so forth these kind of U numbers and then you have the lacking ones which are the ones that follows the economy that means that when the economy starts to move up they will start to follow later when it starts to decline they will follow later and

that's inflation and yields so yields are very much um attached to inflation because that's pretty much what you know you so so you know what is your expectation of you know what you need to pay well if inflation is high you have to need to have you know yields that is you know surpassing that so what I expect yields to do is to follow the economy the leading indicators have been declining have been you negative and declining for uh 20 some months which have we have only seen into the financial crisis the con coincident indicators

are actually uh based on the non-farm payrolls which I at this point here has to say I think our sorry again my French here but I'm just being very honest with it I think we're going to see a lot of you know revision to that and uh and I think that is a um uh I think we're going to see that they will they are a lot worse than what we what we what we actually have SE SE seen over the last many prints here uh for various reasons and then you have the lagging indicators

which is inflation and we have uh and yields and people are mixing that up so now they start to see because there's been a yield Spike then they think oh it's because you know yields are coming back inflation is coming back that's not what I see I think what you're seeing here is that when you started the decline then you have a bounce in these things and then it comes down further so I actually see that you are right now um seeing a slowing of the economy which will bring bring yields down a lot and

if you look at inflation you actually have the inflation level which is ridiculously low compared to other this onset of other recessions the last seven recessions inflation has been way higher what we are what we have now way higher so when the FED is still you know pushing the brakes here which is I mean I don't know what they looking at but it seems then you're going to get a hard Landing I can tell you you don't not have a soft Landing I can promise you and this is what they what they will will will

envisage is they it seems like they don't understand the the the context of momentum so if you have a truck and it going right towards the the canyon and you want to stop it I mean you don't push the speeder to keep you know going you actually start you know pushing you know pushing the brakes here and you need to counter the the momentum that you have in anything that's like this the the economy the economy is a super Tanger and when it starts to turn we are millions of people billions of people interacting on

a daily basis we are the truck and if we want to stop it or we want to accelerate it we need to start doing something to it at some point and I think that's actually what the FED is not getting here honestly it seems like they're looking at levels and they think they can fin tune the levels of uh inflation and say oh we 2.7 like a a chef you know just sprinkling the uh the spices on top of it oh we want to do it 2.0 and just I mean this is ridiculous that's not

how you can you can you you can guide or steer the economy and I think that is the hyper you know the the the the huis that we're going to see on this that they think they can micromanage the economy to that degree and right now they are still being hawkish and they are looking at inflation like what they did in this in October 31st of 2007 in the in the quarter where they already had negative uh where we had negative growth of 1.6% the Fed was talking about inflation and you go back and look

at the FC statements there again they do the same again they looking at things here and say oh it's like a little too high and we a little and they got spooked because they actually did not see the 9.1 when they you know yes started to stimulate into a supply crisis so you bring demand up and and because people have to go home you know the supply is low what do you get I mean this is 101 in economics it's that then you get inflation and that's what they got and now they got spooked and

now they think oh we need to keep it low and what they're doing right now is that they're standing on that break uh which would be good if the truck was going towards the canyon but actually what they're doing now is that they are slowing the economy when it's already slowing and you have such a drag from all the debt debt that we have in the world that's really why we have had the problems with deflation for or low inflation for such a long time and that is still much so much bigger right now so

the FED is right now conducting the biggest policy mistake ever and that's why I think you're going to see yields are going to drop a lot at some point it's going to go fast but I think we have and this is where we need to Define between what you can call a short-term perspective medium-term perspective and a longer term perspective and in longer term perspective I think the what they did on Corona with the stimulus coming out uh and extreme stimulus it was more than the martial a to Europe after the second world war in

you know you know dollar to dollar comparison uh then you know and we had to rebuild all of Europe and you know you stimulate the economy you started to help this is more we did after Corona and that was a supply crisis so when you do that you trigger inflation you trigger inflation expectations and that is what we have now and that is why I think we have what is called a secular bottom in inflation which means that we should now start to look at what happened in the 50s into the 70s in terms of

inflation where you had a bottom and then it went up and it went up for a long time went up for 20 25 years 30 years and then it started to decline again these are the long-term Cycles so if you ask me what I think is going to happen to inflation and yields then I'll say shortterm into 25 26 we're going to see inflation going greater actually I think it's going to be really quick and the FED will then Panic as they do always and you know oh my God and whatever reason and they will

then you know come out and fire their bookas we are you know in Q3 or four here before we get there but um and maybe later because I'm always a little too fast with things so uh but but but that's what I'm seeing happening here that we will see yields coming down we'll see inflation coming down as well and we will see uh the FED coming out and then being scared of deflation again and that will be the moment where they actually onset the next leg in the long-term secular move in the U inflationary cycle

and that's where we need to look into to how did did we actually what would have been a good investment in the 50s and the 60s not what we have done in the 10 of 2010 and 2 so on where inflation was going down this is uh fascinating um Henrik so you're basically expecting stack flation if you are expecting a lower yields correct am I can you correct me on this yeah so so I would expect that not would not be stack flation immediately because the the thing is that that stack flation is that you

have you know the two components stack will be that you are not stagnation in terms of jobs and then you have still higher inflation coming and that's my second phase of this so first you'll have deflationary development the FED will come out blazing you know and then I think uh the problem will be for the fed this time because people are telling me Henri you know that's you just you don't get this man I mean you've seen it you just they just print money and then everything is taken care of and then we go again

and that's why I'm saying this time around I think there is a change because first of all people has got hit by inflation they got hit by higher rates much higher for an extended time and if I'm right also they'll get hit by unemployment as well so now you and I we will say okay the FED can help us save something on our mortgage and then we'll take those let's say a $100 here and say do we actually go spend this one or do we put it aside for you know a rainy day and I

think a lot of people will put that aside for a rainy day now because of those three factors we just talked about that they will say yeah let's see with that inflation let's see with that you know he the rates let's see if you know if I'm you know can get a new job again also or my my neighbor just lost his job and you know what what what what what what would happened to me so I think that will actually make the stimulus um inut you know impotent so to speak and so it's not

it's not going to have the effect that they want H because people are not going to start to use it and that's what you want you want the positive spiral you want people to start using uh the money and the spend the money and then when they spend it then new people will be hired and they will spend money and then you got going but if that does not happen then the stimulus will not happen and that that can then trigger another thing which is a financial bubble again and I think this time it can

be in in in Commodities because I think there is there will start a speculation there this based on a lot of other things so in that phase which is further ahead after what I see with the yields plummeting that can be a stagflationary phase and that's actually the worst kind of Crisis we can have because there's not a lot the FED can do now here and then or the administrations can do and that will be that is you know the times where it's really bad for the stock market and for also for bonds for that

matter Henrik it's been uh an absolute pleasure having you on today your ability to simplify complex micr Trends and tie them into technicals is remarkable I am certainly not a an economist but I can read the data for example you were mentioning uh leading economic indicators the the yields an employment also I believe today we have uh an employment claims uh to me that's another barometer or an indicator to a risk of recession right between a a number between 250 uh and 300,000 should be a should ring the bail for for cautionary levels so I

appreciate the time and our listeners again thank you for joining today if you enjoy this episode you can share Henrik thank you I know we can go on and on I believe your passion there is uh certainly a clear understanding on on economics maybe next time if you are available we can dive into the technicals if you allow me to have you on again for next time absolutely let's do it into the final top and then see what your listeners want to um if that's could be interesting for them [Music]