all right folks welcome back this is going to be kind of like the direction we're going to be going in the future with the channel here i'm wrapping up the mentorship teachings for this model and we'll be just basically doing reviews and index futures forex commodities one and it's applicable and i posted that on twitter that's kind of like a short little promo and everybody was excited thinking that i'm gonna be doing like 30 different markets every single day it's not what i'm doing so kind of give you a flavor for what it is that we will be doing uh the mentorship group that i have with us a private group i no longer make videos for them and one of the reasons why i started this project here is to steer people away from wanting to buy videos that aren't going to help you anyway so when you're buying old videos i'm talking about market moves for that particular day so it's not going to be as useful to you so to keep people from profiting off of pirated videos i stopped making videos in my private group and i make them here publicly now some of my students are upset that i did that others that understand why i'm doing it are in support of it i'm not going to argue or wrestle with the opinions of who's in support of and who isn't supportive i look at it this way the folks that would have an issue with it they're probably the ones that are trying to sell pirated videos so now i've removed their market so you're a fool if you're going out there and you're buying all these instagram guys that are selling my videos i got ict mentorship 2021 2022 2020 19 all the way back to 2016. you know folks they're not going to help you because you weren't there when it was given at the time it was given that's being mentored so that's what i'm kind of doing here and i do on my twitter account so that way we understand why i'm doing it and what motivates me to do it so there won't be a lot of markets obviously being covered each day i'll be looking at the markets that i was referring to either on twitter or i actually took trades in so it's not a matter of talking about something that no one expected me to have an interest in which is predominantly what you see here on youtube and instagram and twitter and facebook and discord and you know it's the list goes on and on so today one minute before 8 30. i apologize i was waiting for my phone to update it's software and by the time i got back on to twitter i had one minute left to type out everything that i posted and you can go my twitter feed and you'll actually see the post in here too but on the economic calendar there was a high impact news driver for canadian dollar and i said i would start working in forex when there's a lot of you are specifically interested in forex because that's predominantly what i'm known for i've moved away from forex recently because i wanted to be a part of the stock index futures market and i'm still engaged obviously in that i did some live trades today and i'll share some of that with you as well but i was covering the canadian dollar and what i was outlining is kind of like this idea and we're gonna use it also to work within the scope of the teaching on daily bias and we'll get into that in a later time in this video but right away when you look on the left hand side this chart here is a dollar cad daily chart and on the right hand side it's the hourly chart of the same pair dollar cut notice that we saw last week the market traded up just bumped the short-term high here with that daily high what do we see once that occurred what formed on that daily chart you want to pause the video here all right if you need more time pause the video because i'm about to continue when the market ran into that old high here it hit it then the next day it created a lower high candle so we have one candle a higher candle high here on candle two and candle three or day three so this is what i dub a swing high i'm not using a williams fractal on mt4 i don't use mt4 this is not mt4 platform and five candles if you're waiting for five candles you missed the boat so this swing high at an old high did it run it not by much but it did that movement right here shown clearly on the hourly chart and the following day creating a high that has a lower high than the highest one that ran into that old high so we have a three bar pattern one candle the lower candle to the left a lower candle to the right that's a swing high pretty simple stuff then the next day i'm going to be expecting the market to trade lower now here's the problem with this particular market yes it's likely to trade down and with the benefit of hindsight i'm showing you here but again i tweeted about this beforehand so at 8 29 a.
m eastern standard time you can see that is on my twitter feed if it's dropping down we have this down close candle here so it could be met with some resistance digging into this range of this down closed candle about half of its body right in here and not surprising you can see that's pretty much where we close that candle here on the 21st of june 2022. so when we look at this dashed line here what i'm anchoring to is the opening on this down closed candle because that is a bullish order block now i'm not suggesting that we went into that to go higher i'm just saying that as we started this down move it's digging into this candle so that's going to be the impediment to a big sudden one big candle that would take us down into this area here and clear out this so over to the hourly chart you can see last week we ran up into it started drifting lower fair bay gap here it rebalances to that drops back down consolidates between this high and the low here comes back in drops once more attacking the cell stops here consolidates once more breaks digs into that order block again that's this level here so watch what happens it goes into it overnight then it rallies this rally here is ahead of the 830 news driver on the economic counter you can find it on 4xfactory. com but this movement here this is all manipulation that takes us up into an imbalance here a fair value gap running a short term high buy side has been taken when it runs here that's anchored above this short-term high the chart on the left here is a 15-minute time frame for a dollar cad and the chart on the right is a five minute chart on the economic account you can see at 8 30 in the morning june 21st 2022 we had a high impact news driver for core retail sales and medium impact retail sales number yellow events i'm not interested in red or medium impact high or medium impact those are the news drivers i'm looking for so if we look at the price movement on the five minute chart you can see that once we ran up initially at seven o'clock in the morning what is seven o'clock in the morning new york time that's the beginning of my ict new york kill zone it's extended to 10 o'clock in the morning when it's 4x so 7 o'clock to 10 in the morning near the local time the market creates a short-term high then runs above that so we have buy side taken then the market drops just below here but i want to have a more meaningful displacement okay we want to see something that's more energetic this little toe in the water type thing here that's not enough we want to see it fall in okay so it drops down that short term low here that's your shift in market structure energetic displacement and that candle is exactly when that news driver came out of 8 30.
so all of this is news driver related economic calendar manipulation and the market is going to cause people to want to sell short and chase it going lower it creates a fair value gap in here on the five-minute chart but there also is a fair value gap here now ahead of the news you might be thinking well couldn't you have sold short here yes you could have but the economic drivers that come at 8 30 could have sent it up higher and taken us into this area here so really it's a matter of waiting for the news to hit the market and then create the setup that's a little bit more conservative there are times when it's so obvious that they're going to continue the move that starts ahead of the new driver but it takes a little bit more experience to find those setups and trust them i would rather you use your demo account to see these types of moves real time wait for them to form and then go in and engage them with your demo not try to forecast how much of a move it's going to further increase higher or lower once the new driver comes out or the news event hits the marketplace relative equal lows down here there's your sell side so we had this fair value got formed after buy side was taken here but now this creates an area of buy side that once this trades lower we have this fair value gap and then we have this very value gap so it could run up into that level with the volatility so you have to make sure that you have that defined with your risk management the draw on liquidity is likely to pull down in here or into this fair value gap and we'll talk a little bit more about why that's the case but eventually it trades down into it bagged and tagged sells liquidity the tweet i posted again you can see this at 8 29 a. m june 21 2022 i just made it on twitter but basically saying good morning folks dollar cad is about to have some volatility note the sell side and buy side on your 5 and 15 minute charts sell side is here buy side would be here study if it wants to run sell side before buy side or rebounds to a discount what does that mean at the news driver release it could go up and bump the buy side then dig in for the imbalance here that's a discount or run the sell side out here so all of this movement up since five o'clock in the morning new york local time this was just the head of that news driver here so they were building in a premium then during the new york kill zone it gave you the setup that i teach in this model delivered to the fair value gap and delivered to the south side of koji pool between this high and that low here is equilibrium so we have to find a discount array below that if we're going short that's the favorite a gap here you can take a partial there and target the sell side liquidity which you can see it does that as well here and here i tweeted and i failed actually include that tweet i wish i would have put it in here now but i mentioned how the market reacted here like that and i stated that's the reason why you want to take partials because you don't know if it's going to come all the way back up and then revisit the sphere of a gap and lose the opportunity to bank something when it goes into your first opportunity discount array when going short now i've dropped down into a four-minute chart and i dimmed the fair value gap that i mentioned earlier that you could have taken that trade but it'd be ahead of the news driver and it's a little bit more riskier but you wait for the displacement short term low is taken then we have a shift in market structure and the imbalance would be between this low of this candle and the high of this candle in here now by itself this is a rather elongated imbalance so all of this cell side delivery is imbalanced and there's not enough by side delivery so it's going to want to wait for the market to come back up in here in forex there is no central measure of volume okay and in the algorithm that delivers price that is going to want to come back up and overlap this down move and offer buyers an opportunity to get in on that this is too much of a movement one-sided so the market offers that rebalancing so if that's the case where in this range would we be looking for for an entry knowing that this fair value got could be revisited and you're gonna have to utilize that for your stop loss so your stop would have to be here doesn't matter where you're going short in between this low and this high you have to define the risk with the stop here based on the model i'm teaching you now some of you are like oh this is too much you know because if i went in at 129. 45 and i put my stop here that's almost 12 pips that's too much no it's not it's all relative you can scale that's one of the benefits of forex it's very scalable whereas if you're trading futures you're kind of stuck to whatever the contract size is and you've got to either make it work or you can't take the trade or you're basically over leveraged which is what you don't want to be doing so if we look at that range from that high down to that low and drop a fib on it we're going to get a measurement of 50 here that's our equilibrium price point so really we need price to get to that point or higher so by definition we could be looking for a short here up to here and that would look like that so that was that's really the range that you'd be wanting to sell short in so you're not really risking a lot of pips but you're defining the entry a little bit better even though it goes above it a little bit that's okay but the bottom line is it eventually gets in sync watch the bodies of the candle support that premium high of the imbalance beautiful delivery then it starts to break lower one more time false little rally takes buy side liquidity once more then the real move starts to unfold trades into the fair value gap here take partials so that way if this reverses on you you're paid and drops below a low where engineered south side liquidity would be and then digs into the cell cell equity over here so your entry could be 129.
44 129. 47 in that range anywhere near is reasonable it's acceptable obviously the closer you get to this level you may not have been filled it might just leave some of that open and then start to roll over but as you can see here goes a little bit further that's fine that's why we have to utilize this level here for our stop loss based on the model's rules that i've taught in the 2022 youtube mentorship alright so i have a four minute chart here with all the details shown south side the quality pool relative equal lows from the morning it rallies up creates a high after running buy-side liquidity it breaks down consolidates and gives a short-term swing low here with an energetic run lower at the high impact news event at 8 30. rebalance stop goes here and it rolls over during the 10 o'clock till 11 o'clock but that time frame 10 to 11 that's london close so if you're looking for directional plays and you're in a trade you want to have about 80 percent of your trade off between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock in the morning because usually not all the time but usually that's when it creates the opposing end of the daily range so if it's creating the high of the session here the low is likely to form between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock that's algorithmic now there are some times if there's news events sometimes canadian dollars influenced by crude oil numbers and that would sometimes skew this time window 10 to 11 so on those days when there's crude oil inventory numbers coming out and i'm interested in trading the loony i will trade with the expectation between 10 o'clock to noon and not have such a tight little window of 10 to 11.
and i promise you i have students for days and days and days and years and years now that will confirm that this has not just been form fitted for this example i've always taught that 10 o'clock until 11 o'clock in the morning is london closed profit taking hour i'm quite sure if you go through the older teachings i have in this youtube channel you'll probably actually hear me talk about that very thing as well all right so we're going to talk about the e-mini s p futures contract this is the september contract for 2022. if you're following along on tradingview and i hope you are the symbol you would be utilizing for calling up the data for this contract is esu 2022 okay and that would give you this chart here this is a daily chart and before i get into it i want to talk a little bit about daily bias okay so this topic is one of the most requested topics that i would cover and i have done many teachings on it i've done amplifications i've done revisits to this idea and i know what you're wanting okay because it's what i wanted as well you want a simple abc one two three it always works it's always going to be the same way it's always going to be the same procedure process and it's always going to give you a winning trade now some of you are already folding your hands and hissing because you're like oh that's not what i want that's not what i want you're exaggerating michael no that's really what you want and you want me to give you a very simple cookie-cutter approach to find daily bias and i want you to understand that i've taught these things many times throughout the lessons and lectures and series that's found on his youtube channel this is the simplification that i make for daily bias if you stick to these rules you will know how to find daily bias as i teach it my students follow these rules okay i'm going to go through them with you and you're going to be kicking and screaming and saying there's something else you're holding back there isn't it's experience it's doing it yourself but the keys to daily bias are simply this everyday bias is unrealistic if i go in looking for a specific predetermined daily bias before the market starts trading invariably i'm going to have it incorrect notice i said that i'm not perfect some of you hold me up to this hero level status and i'm not a hero okay i'm just somebody that knows what they're looking for and knows how to avoid hopefully making the same mistakes over and over again because i'm looking for a procedure and process that will lead to an outcome that generally not all the time but generally yields a specific result so i'm not trying to get a daily bias every single day i'm trying to determine the likely weekly expansion and again what is that i utilize a weekly chart and i studied that and i want to see does it look like it's going to run to an old low does it look like it's going to run to an old high or is it running to a imbalance below the market price or is it trying to run to an imbalance above the market price or is it likely not to move because there's no data for it for that week and other markets have high impact or medium impact news that would be more interesting and the algorithm will be working those pairs or markets and the pairs or markets that don't have a high impact or medium impact driver will probably be a lackluster market environment i'm looking for the direction of an expansion move i'm not trying to get the entire weekly range i'm not trying to buy the weekly low and sell the weekly high i can but that's not what i'm trying to do you don't need to do that okay i know some of you hate when i do that but i'm trying to make sure that you understand there's a distinction between what you should be coming into this with in terms of expectations and what is realistic okay in the beginning all you're trying to do is determine is it likely to expand higher is there going to be a big move a flurry of activity going higher during the week or going lower during the week and by itself that is huge in terms of what you're trying to pick now you might be wrong because sometimes i get it wrong but i'm looking for some volatility in a direction based on what i'm studying on a weekly chart so this is a daily chart shown on this slide here the same thing i would be doing to determine where the daily charts going i'm trying to do that with a weekly chart but i'm only interested in seeing what's it likely to reach for i'm not trying to predict the weekly closing price on that candlestick i'm trying to look for where is the bulk of that volatility going to be pushing higher or lower and why would it be like that and it's as simple as what i mentioned earlier is it aiming for and gravitating towards an old high to run above it or is it gravitating towards an old low to run below it or is there an imbalance where it needs to come back and revisit that because it might just drop down to a fair value gap to go higher longer term i don't even need to know that all i need to know is what direction is it most likely to have the majority of the volume pushing through now when i say volume there is no centralized volume number in 4x when i say the volume that means the the interest the the chaos the energy all the activity the action okay is it gonna be on the higher side reaching for buy side or is it gonna be on the lower side reaching for sell side that's what i'm looking for i want to find where is it likely to gun for this particular week who's in the crosshairs have people been making money going long is there a low they're gonna try to run down and stop them out with it that would be enough for me to frame an expansion going lower so i'm looking for obvious liquidity in that direction below old lows above old highs or identifying imbalances and price delivery top down that means from the weekly down to the daily down to the four hour down to the one hour to the 15 minute chart and then once we get to the five minute chart you do the scalings from five four three two and one whichever has the clear obvious fair value gap for you based on the model's rules and i focus on days that have high or medium impact calendar events only so if you go through your economic calendar in fact you can look at next month's economic counter they're already there where are the high impact or medium impact news events for the markets that you trade what day of the week and what time so if you have a news driver that's coming out on a particular day say tuesday or wednesday and you're expecting the weekly range to expand lower well on those medium impact or high impact news events i'm going to see hopefully something that is going to run up higher go into a fair value gap or run above a short term high run stops then break down show displacement then create a fair value gap and i can go in short on that and i'm doing that and looking for that setup and that directional price run inside my kill zones intraday at the same time the economic calendar is suggesting a high impact or medium impact news event is likely so what did i just teach you here i basically said that there is absolutely no expectation on my part to know the bias every single day of every single calendar trading day i'm only focusing on these sweet spots these low hanging fruit days where everything's coming to get all the stars are lining okay i'm looking for the higher time frame weekly to expand in a specific direction that starts my bias then if i think it's going to be going higher going lower for a specific target or imbalance then i'm going to go to the economic calendar to look for when that might occur now there may be a move that happens prior to the economic calendar event occurring and that's just going to be a missed opportunity so you have to use something else some other pair something else that you got the trade with sometimes that occurs but you'll see that there's a lot of opportunities using this criteria and it's very forgiving for you as a developing student because it's already given you permission not to know the daily bias outside of these rules so you want to trade every single day because you want to be the everyday trader i don't want to be the everyday trader the everyday trader is more prone to have losing trades because they are trying to do something every single day when there are times when you should not be trading at all and that's what makes me different from all the other educators out there because i have made a career out of knowing how not to destroy myself because that's what i did when i was a 20 year old i thought that i could trade every single day and that's problematic when you don't know how to trade and you have a lot of time or lack of self-control and that's why i was blowing accounts when i was 20 and 21 and 22. that fevered pace of i got to do it i got to do it i want to miss that next move when hopefully you've seen now enough instances where this pattern repeats a lot over the course of a month it's in most markets a few times a week but if you notice those moves are occurring when there's a high impact or media impact news driver on the econo calendar so it's something that you can plan for you ever hear them the old cliche remarks of books and educators they say plan your trade and trade your plan well this is how you can do that with that model you look for the economic calendar the time of day what kill zone in the market you're expecting an expansion high or low on that weekly chart there it is you're looking for these things to repeat and if you start journaling these things you're going to notice that the setups this is one of the epiphanies okay because i know some of you just don't want to do this but now because i'm going to tell you you're going to go into it hopefully and see that what i'm saying is true if you backlog every day show everything that took place mark up your charts as i'm going to show you in some examples in here when that happens over time you're going to see that the best setups occur when these calendar events are in play and they originate around that same time and what will happen is it'll convince you to say okay i don't need to be the everyday trader i don't need to be in here being super scalper i don't need to be in here trying to be an olympic trader because trading is not an olympic sport it's not an olympic event and they don't give out gold medals for over trading but they do blow accounts so eventually doing that enough and if you don't know what you're doing you're going to blow your account and that's hopefully what i'm trying to prevent you from enduring all right so we're looking at the hourly chart here on the s p obviously we've traded down we left relative equal lows but this low went just a little bit lower than that one that's all we need it hits that and it started retracing higher this movement here that's whip sawing both sides of the marketplace sell side taken and then buy side taken and then it broke down whenever i see price action like this i ignore the both side type movement usually it's fomc or some kind of rate announcement type event and that's what you're seeing here when i see that i ignore that wick and i ignore all these as well the real range is here this is manipulation it's already done it's not going to hurt you focus on this swing here so when the market drops down it creates this low runs a little bit lower we're consolidating we had a holiday on monday the market starts to drift higher and what i'm concerning with this run here is this high to that low and i'm getting my range equilibrium is here so if it's going higher what's it reaching for well it's going to go into a premium and then this right here this imbalance i'm not really interested in that one because it's overlapping with that equilibrium 50 level of the high to that low so i want to see it dig into a premium so even if this is going to go up to go down i want to know do i have an opportunity to see it go up into this area here or maybe even up here so we'll use the first low-hanging fruit approach here so we have fair value gap there in balance sell side only the market's going to want to revisit that area this is exactly what i teach you this is exactly what happened look at the bodies of the candles yes there's a little bit of movement just above this candle's low but look at the bulk of these candles the bodies they're staying within that range that's defined by what i teach you as a fair value gap in a premium market what makes it a premium it's above the 50 level so it's gone up into that level here it's consolidating on the 15-minute time frame pause the video look for what you can identify based on your understanding and experience learning under me so far okay if you need more time pause the video all right so here's midnight new york local time we had a fair value gap here pull a shoulder block these last three down closed candles that's one consecutive order block it digs into the order block with the fair value gap hits that during the london session it rallies up we create a fair value gap here it runs by side here and then creates relative equal highs ahead of the new york session so the market drops down goes into the fair value gap here into the last down closed candle bull shoulder block there that's where you could be a buyer ahead of the 9 30 opening why would you feel confident to do that because we already have an energetic price run from london open the market started at midnight and went where did it go up no it went down into an imbalance and then there was a lot of energy off of that so the market created a short-term shift in market structure here that's bullish london creates the higher the load most of the time 70 of time you're going to find that that is true if your directional bias is correct so i'm trusting that that low is probably pricing in the daily low this retracement into the new york session we're trading into an order block we close up this fair value gap then we rally a little bit and drop back down into the fair bay gap once more creating optimal trade entry that's not what we're going to focus on this one here but we have the new york am session beginning here from 8 30 in the morning to 11 this is specific to index futures for the morning session this is the upper level in that fair value gap on the hourly chart and this is the lower level on the hourly fair value gap so that's your targets it's going to be a draw on liquidity the market runs from the fairway gap here to the low of the fair value gap on the hourly chart to the high the fair value gap on the hourly chart after clearing buys liquidity on a 5-minute chart there's a lot of things going on here you can see we have a low then we ran that low once more then it rallies and moves up away from the order block and then back down into the last down closed candle on the five-minute chart so there's an hierarchy of how the market's trading down into a higher time frame to a lower time frame to a lower time frame all being supported by down closed candles within the bias that's bullish and once fair value gaps are being closed in the market goes higher so it's signaling to you it's indicating to you that you don't need an indicator you don't need some wonky little gimmicky candlestick replacement okay the candlestick is telling you everything you need to know you don't need to have any kind of indicators no moving averages none of that garbage okay everything is being shown here in price action relative to time and price so we have the market starting with a run from this low with a lower low so what took place here we'll come back to that in a minute mark comes back down into a short-term discount relative to the low to high here discount rallies and at 9 30 it's consolidating and then it starts to run reaches for the bicep liquidity here the low of the fair bay gap on the hourly chart and the high the fair value gap on the hourly chart as it draws on liquidity three targets all hit i'm going to zoom in and this is a zoomed in chart of the session that starts at 8 30 and going into the 9 30 opening so we have the low here lower low into the order block it rallies short term shift in market structure here comes back down in there's an imbalance or if every gap here these levels are based on the five-minute chart so even though we're looking at a smaller time frame than that that's what we're looking at but we're going to refine that down into this particular time frame so inside that let me go back up one more slide so inside the fair value gap we're dropping down in here but we're doing it into this very value gap there down close candle that's an order block and fair value gap there it is you can buy this right there and trust that it's not likely to take that low out why because we already had a stop running event here low lower low sell side taken reaction off the order block we're into the fair value gap we rallied once more we created a fair value gap here drop down that last down closed candle you can be a buyer there there's buy side liquidity resting up here that's going to be your initial draw on liquidity so that'd be a first partial if you want to add if you want to pyramid the position you can add that as it starts to run up higher but i want to show you the low to the high here that's 50 or equilibrium the market drops into a discount prior to that run up here this consolidation at 9 30 we see it taking off here it's already done the move of manipulation knocking people out retracing then off to the races so this is a case where you do not need to wait for nine thirties opening to get that volatility to get these type of manipulation moves this is an early setup discount fair value gap and rallies so notice what's happening we have an hourly discount that we're trading into here then it creates a short-term discount relative to this low to this high that's we're seeing here then the market rallies here comes back down into an order block and fair value gap discount rallies consolidates ahead of 9 30.
