Raoul Pal EXPOSES Crypto Cycles Secrets ft. Mario Nawfal

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spot and use realvision 15 for 15% off don't miss your chance to be part of the industry's defining moment hi everyone sorry to interrupt but this is the cheesy podcast bit that gets on everyone's nerves but it's Really important to me please if you can like the channel and also subscribe it helps me a lot to get the best guess in the world for you guys so click like And subscribe appreciate it thanks join me Ral pal as I go on a journey of Discovery through the macro crypto and exponential age landscapes in the journey

man I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together it's currently $3 trillion as an Industry if I extrapolate out the rate of growth the trend rate of adoption is twice the speed of the internet as the internet slowed down in adoption rates because it gets more saturated if we extrapolate the same we get to about 4 billion users by 2030 so I think the asset class goes to100 billion and we're only 3% of the way that [Music] I have to ask what's the banana for have You not

heard about the banana Zone I didn't Google it and this is what it is it's real Vision merch about the banana Zone what is it what's the bananas on crypto prices Go Bananas in the final part of the cycle when the I create this whole meme around it from about a year ago getting people everybody ready for the banana Zone then kind of announce the big banana Zone there's like whole memes about it I know bring bananas on Rockets I don't know if it's Rel oh Really I don't know if it's related but there's been

a whole bunch of this banana stuff did you launch banana token or not yet no I'm not going we got to four listed really yeah meme tokens all on banana own why haven't you done one I don't want to be extractive Canada I know it's fun now but when everything goes to [ __ ] I'm the one who get blamed but I think people I I'll play Devil's Advocate they don't do you say they do Trust me I've been through I've been in this industry since 2013 every time prices go down they blame single you

out and blame you as if you have done it so them I had my face share like when yeah you had it yeah when V so we invested in projects that we locked up every project so as a VC projects went down 90 95% before I became you know before I had a media platform I was still just an investor yeah and an agency and then projects we invested in gone down in Value and we're we're invested so we lost a lot and then we get attacked as being pump and dump from people outside of

crypto so I just took a big disclaimer when I went into politics that's when it started but exactly your point is that you don't need to do something wrong to be for the finger to be pointed at you it's like everybody's hopes and dreams are in that butar then if everyone's latched on to this is okay this is the time to make all the Money and then said the hopes and dreams r in it when the reverse happens you've shattered their Illusions it's scary you have to take it really really seriously doesn't the same apply

to when salano goes down in price obviously not the same as a mcoin but then again some m coins have outperform Sal the mean coin is all about attention sana's got utility they're build you're building stuff on top of it yeah a mean coin is attention and we saw this with Nft communities when people walk away the intention disappears everyone's like well what into my utility I was supposed to be doing this and you were going to be building clubhouses and and then they found out it was n okay it's cool discussion up Kevin Rose

got booted out of the whole kind of crypto ecosystem what happened to Kevin Rose he walked away from the project the project kind of went nowhere Yuga Labs bought the IP for how much you Know and then anything happened with them afterwards or no no he just sold all his nfts and walked away from web 3 space and it's not even on Twitter anymore because he got hounded so badly he was on podcast saying he' had a nervous breakdown about it everything yeah I as you know I kind of when when to go in politics

kind of lost touch of the industry for a bit um okay that's going to be cool I like the framing of this conversation because I Want to dig right into it hi R here listen I think we've got until 2030 before the economic Singularity arrives now it might not be the exact date but it's around then so we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future I've put together a report to help you called prepare for 2030 it's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure

you're secure past 2030 so just click on the link below and start your journey now so Disclaimer I've listened to your content a lot especially in my early crypto days I got it to crypto in 2017 so you probably hear this a lot but what you've done for the industry um is uh is is is nothing short of incredible so thank you now what I do kind of my incentives lie in two two asset classes right now number one is is VC back tokens and number two on a smaller scale so VC back tokens we're

very heavy 3 400 projects this year about two to 300 projects so We incubate we invest Etc and on the memec coin side we couldn't say no when you have mcoins going up $100 million every day that's what we do so you understand where my questions that they come from because I'll be very selfish on my questions so what I want to start with with our discussion is is looking at the market in general before we look into the different assets classes including nfts Y where are we in the market we how does this compare

to Previous cycles and how does that compare to to your expectations do you want to start with that yeah that's the first question I start high level and I slowly dig into the different asset classes this is a technology that is the new lay to the Internet it's not just about tokens what's unique about this technology is as token incentivization built in which is why these networks bootstrap so fast It's currently $3 trillion as an industry if I extrapolate out the rate of growth the trend rate of adoption is twice the speed of the internet

as the internet slowed down in adoption rates because it gets more saturated if we extrapolate the same we get to about 4 billion users by 2030 so I think the asset class goes to100 billion and we're only 3% of the way that so this is the largest fastest accumulation of wealth in all human History that lies ahead of us it's the big rebalance how everybody can get involved whichever country you're in however much you are right so it's the big one the biggest macro trade of all time that's primarily my interest in the trade the

whole Space is driven by Network adoption more people join the network the more applications that get built the more valuable these networks become beyond that it's then broken down to different Companies or projects selling block space that's all they do which is a data storage or and essentially that block or distributed Ledger and there's there's they've all got a different sales approach Bitcoin has we're the most trusted we're secure ethereum is like we're the B big one Salan is like we're the fast retail so everyone is selling blog space but again we're all incentivized to

get passionate Behind these things because of the Tokens this whole thing is being driven by a big macro Trend the big macro trend is the basement of currents so as liquidity gets pushed into the markets every four years when the government's going to roll their debts this is driven by everything I call the everything code and work that I did showing that every four years governments need to refinance their debts and what they do is inject massive liquidity to be able to do it and try and get interest rates lower so As we do that

it creates a perfect four-year cycle and it's not going to go away until we get rid of the debt equations and everything else so where are we in the foure cycle I break come down by Seasons each year being a different season okay winter being when liquidity's being taken away 2022 2023 spring can Market stop going down people don't quite believe it yet but you see green shoots coming but it still feels a Bit wintry and cold and miserable then summer which is what we're finishing now lacro summer is the year three same year as

the election cycl and then we go into lacro fall or Autumn crypto you when when when if we were trying to time of the year so it's it's just an annual cycle when do you see it's the beginning of the year we go into the next a the fall or the Autumn cycle that's usually the most explosive beginning of next year yeah and that's usually the most Explosive so summer starts to rip and then we hit what I've called the banana Zone which is when everything goes ban and how long will the banana Zone last

for that depends on global liquidity normally it lasts until about November um because of this cycle it lasts until November and we have different structur these Cycles we had the last one which it usually has a peaker and tax season so March people have to sell some tokens to pay taxes it Falls for a bit and then it rips at the end of the year last time it fell 50% over that period in 2021 and then it ripped but it didn't really extend and everyone kind of got caught out by it double top 2017 and

13 well they were different they had the same cycle structure it went to the Sun summer 2017 Bitcoin 10x from there in 4 months it's the same and that's the blowoff cycle so we don't know what we're going to get stunted Cycle or blowoff cycle but thinking about the political change and what's been going on the probability has to be towards a blowout cycle so that would be much higher price than everyone expects most people have PTSD from the last cycle um and they don't want to overextend themselves and they're worried that they're going to

be caught holding the bag which usually means they'll sell early cuz the markets give as much pain to the most number of People as possible why in 2021 everyone's expecting 2017 to happen it doesn't maximum pain so that's where we are so so would you say that the whole Narrative of a super cycle is you know should not be Revisited as a possibility I don't see how that happens unless they break this everything code cycle of liquidity so let's play this through let's say we're towards the end of 2025 the US economy and the global

economies picked up El what happens is Inflation usually picks up a bit and the central banks start raising rates or tightening liquidity in some form and that slows down 2026 doesn't mean we get a recession but we get a Slowdown so unless we change that Dynamic there's no reason to believe the fouryear cycle won't keep repeating it'll stop being repeated once we break the root cause of the problem which demographics that's it so that's for the foure cycle repeating but will continue Being a foure cycle won't have a super cycle remember in the last cycle

we thought we continue extending for another I doubt it unless something completely changes fundamental Chang fundamental changes okay and then we start going through first I want to compare the Cycles how would you compare is any any specific um differences we're seeing in this cycle compared to the last cycle there's always small variations of which Asset classes lead the cycle but anything else is fundamentally different this time around no we've got some new classes come in um but otherwise it's pretty much the same so Bitcoin usually leads in spring and summer which is now and

then Bitcoin dominance Falls and ALT season starts in a couple of months which is when you say alt season is a utility tokens mem coins or both it's probably everything everything okay it almost doesn't matter including all the Dead token M guess is even stupid CH like Luna will go up you know 5x why because it's now a me about the broken cycle last time who knows what goes up it gets crazy season is the point so that Bitcoin dominance part of the cycle that starts dropping from here and then we starts having the old

season but nothing structurally looks different in fact it's very similar we map the charts very similar to the 2016 17 cycle and not dis similar to the last one so one Thing I I'm a very simplistic person when it comes to the markets predicting the markets far from an expert all I say my only my only thesis which Scott L Scott melker a mutual friend we have he likes my thesis I'm like I'm very simple I think unless it's something fundamental is different history will continue repeating itself time and time again um but that means

everyone's expecting the cycle to end in November so I think when everyone expecting it to To end in no they've all got PTSD all of them you go on X and ask people where do they think Bitcoin Peaks out my guess is most answers are 150,000 well it's 93,000 as we're speaking and that's not very and most people are worried that it's going to Peak early so the PTSD the collective trauma is it's not going to go as high as you expect I need to sell early to take some chips off the table yeah and

that's when normally you get a Correction assist thank God for that and then it rips and everybody's C I got it and I've seen that so many times it's like oh [ __ ] I saled soon but do you think when that cycle repeats of you know it drops sign ific L and then rebounds heavily and it rips but that you know we expect it to Peak end of next year yes with everyone okay and I'd expect it to to end a bit earlier than previous Cycles because everyone's expecting it to end At a certain

month do they want to preent it and end it before not if they pre-sold because they you see what I'm saying yeah I got it because then they keep ripping and we've got new buyers now we've got sovereigns we've got John family offices we've got Middle East we've got US government potentially we've got do they even know about the 4 you cycle in your opinion Christ have talked a lot about it um yes I think a lot of them do I Think they realize it's a very cyclical asset it's like tech stocks it's very similar

they understand the volatility and they understand this mainly four years but there's a whole bunch of people who won't care about the pension plans because that's not their time Arizon their time Arizon is 10 years 20 years so they don't care about it so most of those guys aren't really in yet but they're likely to be buyers later in the cycle because they're not the Fastest to pull a trigger and so they might push the extended rally at the end of it as they come in how big is have a difference do you think Trump's

election is made to the to the industry in terms of the long-term trend of adoption zero in terms of speed a lot a lot a lot a lot I mean look at I mean every single senior person in that Administration is talking crypto all day they're meeting crypto people all day the president had a defi project He just bought he's trying to buy backs The Exchange it's insane okay this is balas right I mean we've got Cynthia Lumis like I can't wait for next year I'm so excited I'm like they've all turned into DJs exactly

but the knock on effect is more than just the us because it gives a green line to everybody everybody else except Australia been B dragging their heels India's dragged its heels bunch of places dragged their Heels but as soon as the US goes we're all in they all come do you know Donald Trump Jr uh supported a couple of meme coins yes that's right how crazy is that I know but because Baron is also a crypto guy they're all crypto pie right because people sense in the end however late you come to this thing you

still realize this is the biggest macro opportunity of all time it's a way of making money if you think about it Bitcoin has done 150% Annualized returns since 2012 including three 70% plus p Downs draw Downs 150% once you realize that if you start with some Capital what is the point of even starting a business exactly I mean like all of my friends is you know they'll all be speaking here Dan moead Dan tapier all of these guys we're all macro guys we all grow up together in the industry we've all left sure you know

we use macro Frameworks to understand this But none just trade oil or currencies or whatever anymore it's just it's irrelevant it's just the biggest trade we've ever been given so you mentioned something earlier that you think when we go into out season even listed tokens will start doing well so there's something putting my VC hat on I told you my framework my model so we invest a lot privately do you think there's one thing that's been trending recently is investing OTC so List of tokens you get them at a discount not sure if you're doing

many of these Investments yourself I don't do a lot of them but I know of them what do you think of them so do you there's just so many tokens out there you think there's a lot of gems and once the chart dies down 98 99 per it's over so there's a really interesting Dynamic uh I've got an asset management business called exponential age asset management and it's a it's a crypto funder fund so Invest in crypto hedge funds why am I doing that versus the VC we will do VC stuff as well uh in

a different vehicle why is because the VCS get them early or the early stage investors like yourself you get some liquidity and you want to take some profits in some of it fine people like DC stumping incentivized trying to make money VCS take early risk they get it why people hate it is because the secondary Market is too Small right so you think of the entire professional capital in crypto liquid markets the hedge funds that's calling those they manage $8 billion in traditional markets it's $4 trillion wow so what we've got is a mismatch of

liquidity so these guys are now getting super normal opportunities because the VC's sell the tokens dump 60 70% 80 90% on the unlocks if they're good projects that's the Hedge fund's job to go and Say I like that one i' hate that one pick them up and then you can actually do it again now retail hasn't figured this out yet because they want to buy it on the news announcement hey mad's just been launched I buy and then it dumps what they should do is wait for the dumps and then say okay where's the ruby

in the dust here what can I get because then you can make huge money out of them but this this is in line with what I said so these are the OTC Deals so exactly yeah so that's where the opportunity lies a lot of the foundations have to do OTC deals because they need liquidity foundation so they go and find hedge funds or groups of individuals you know we saw this in ton we saw we've SE in tons ofes where they offer something a big discount obviously the salana stuff that came out of FTX um

it's a good opportunity but you get locked up for here on so you're taking I remember you talked about exactly what You're saying now in the last cycle a lot on the whole mismatch between VC VC fing and and and hedge funds um and we' seen that materialized right now cuz these tokens the VC back tokens at least for now we we're not even seeing close to the performance we've seen in previous Cycles so we're not seeing launches at 10 20 30X anymore rarely no um and a lot of that liquidity is getting sucked into

m coins yeah it's been insane one Of the reasons you're not seeing those High super high valuations yet is because liquidity has not been massive right the more liquidity people earn more money funds make more money businesses make more money more money gets recycled up the risk curb and people start taking bigger risks so I think it's still to come but the VC markets had no exits outside of tokens there's been no equity exits in any project we need circles to go public or Get bought we need some of the you know cracker we need

some of these bigger things to recycle the VC money to then rature the whole Space up again and then as you say if we've captured a certain amount of liquidity yes it's increasing but then you've sucked a whole bunch into the casino of mean coins it take some of that away CU people this entire industry trades on attention and there's only so many of us in the industry so let's say there's a million active People in the industry well that's a million people's attention and you've got on 10,000 tokens launching a day how much attention

can we give to anything so really is this game of attention and memes have got it now because everyone believes that they can make the next 100x and so utility stuff layer toos nobody cares it's sad it will come back because we'll have Different investors coming to the space and looking for for real value it's just I think a nature of where we are I think the next stage is a lot of the application stuff uh the real world assets the dpin gting utility gaming it's all to come I'm going to ask you about gaming

and the metaverse things that you've talked about I've talked about a lot but before going into meme coins which is the Hot Topic right now what are what are your Thoughts on nfts is that over so the nft pfps yeah pfps are over except punks apes and a few other do you still hold yours yes yeah my my Twitter profile isn't is a punk I still is I tell um and so yes I do because they're social identifiers it shows you early to the space you've been around you understand the space it's a it's a

identifier right um and but that pfp business it'll come back in various forms NFS is a Technology can use for everything ticketing any contractual term OTC derivatives you name it um so they're going to get used a lot the and I think Punk 6529 it talks about this is this may be larger than the underlying tokens themselves yes because everything we do as humans has contracts and this is you know nft is a is a contract essentially contract so there's that but then what's really happening the big move in nfts is highend Arts so that's

copy and be and fenzza they've been getting liquidity again yes oh wow cuz as people make money the Richer people get what do they do they vs so a longterm store of value so if you ask any you know go and look at any rich person in manhand go and find a big hedge fund manager say where did you invest once you made your money they'll tell you two things property and art yeah it's always the same okay so we're seeing that market coming alive there's Super scarcities they're all being taken off the when did

that start that start in January I I might what are we now hold I no we're not oh we're November yeah I think I may have accidentally kicked it off but but that's what happened um do you own any an a lot oh wow okay do I own 40 something um x copy who's like the most legendary OG culturally relevant in the space I own every single be Edition that's I had an idea I own yeah own a lot a lot and I've Been buying all this year that's that's my big trade is I've been

top slicing salana profits that I've made and lock it into art as a 10 15 year storage of wealth um how far off the alltime highs are they well it's different cuz you got they're priced in eth and they're priced in dollars in dollars uh in dollars some things have been trading for alltime highs in yeah I mean there's several pieces traded over a few a few Millions So yeah it's happening I don't know where the be are yet U punks are obviously still lower um but they doubled in the last week they're off 100%

in a week yeah everybody starting to buy them put a not look into them um that's fascinating yeah so obviously I've got my punk I'm not that I was never deep in the nft space no never got deep in the pfb space me neither really I i' like to be an observer of the first cycle and an aggressive participant in The second cycle okay so memes yes we've had Doge and everything else but this iteration of memes is something I've been talking about for a long time yeah which is this is these are social tokens

these are Community tokens and this is experimentation happening in real time at massive speed so yes I've participate own some memes stuff like that but really what I want to see is the same thing thesis we had before I want to see the down 90 and I want to see what comes Out the other side like we're seeing it from pfps I think my guess is Punks will trade at new alltime record highs oh really we're seeing with the digital art stuff we saw it with salana we've saw it with eth the cycle before that

you know it's the it's the ones that survive that have the Lindy effect out of these memes and then what who builds what with this technology and this idea that excites me yeah floor is I look at Dollar terms 110k 36 Eth yeah floor um but they've still been underperforming relative to the rest of the market yes they've been relative would you say they they've acted as a good store of value or no no not yet but they lag they actually lag because they follow the business cycle so they they lag somewhat so you can

ask that question at the end of the cycle let's see how they are my guess is in dollar terms they have massively outper fored because they will go from I don't know They bottomed at let's say 20 let's say 25 e and eth was at 2 half thousand let's say eth goes to 10,000 and these things go up to 100 the multipliers gigantic that's why so many people make money out of nfts the last cycle because you get the double M he has a call option onne so you've mentioned meme coins a few times um

as I said shamelessly we're very involved in the space I'm a Believer um I even look at memes as the true form of Decentralization know VC back talk is De centralized among VCS mes go with aort they're meant to go with with a 100% float but obviously that's not happening with a lot of early buyers but um so you said there a new asset class or I'm putting words in your mouth I believe they're a new asset class and I do see them as a social token which again you've been very vocal about I've been

very active and bit clout when it was a thing until it died down so I'm Also a big believer in Social tokens um can you tell me more about and the long-term value of these meme coins and how how they'll you know how they'll be as an asset class you know by the end of the cycle okay so we have got the elephant in the room which is AI we got Ai and the robots coming for our jobs I'm already developing a r bot which video me too yeah I was in LA like they the

two cameras are your face and Stuff yeah and then you know on the llm you can just talk to me so that goes from one to many which is the model that you and I knew to one to one they can speak to Mario speak to ra directly and that's just the St disruption of this is total and absolute right because human knowledge which was scarce becomes infinite and everything digitized goes to zero in value everything and that's what blockchain technology did block technology created digital scarcity Because if not you can create endless pieces of

digital art let's say but now you can't because you've got scarcity but AI is going to create infinite knowledge so infinite knowledge means zero value for a law and accounts and whatever over time and then when you can create robots you can infinitely create as many robots as possible so okay what does that role Lees for humans forget about the universal basic income blah blah blah I kind of believe in y Ser Model which is that we can earn Universal basic Equity from being participating in Social communities or communities and earning token which is the

kind of the big idea here if you take a fact that humans don't have to go to a job for a living we still want a sense of purpose we want a sense of optimism we want to be able to make money and we want to have a purpose we're social creatures by Nature so once you see this Experimentation what we're seeing is a bunch of very online people who are wildly disconnected in the way I grew up which was we would go to the pub and chat none of these guys do and most of

them don't drink that don't socialize they socialize on video twitch streams or on X or on Discord so you need to connect people in their ideas and make you feel part of something now we've seen this model before it's called sports Teams sports teams give you a sense of community if you grow up in Liverpool you probably support Liverpool or Everton football club and it gives you a sense of community and commonality with other people around you you that's what humans do all the time we also do it with pop star we do it with

music it's a cultural phenomena and music is a really broken industry where the artist gets like 20% of the revenues that are generated by Them so what we've got now is the ability to gigantically scale communities it's something you've been trying to do something I've done it's Taylor Swift's economy is so big it moved the Australian economy the Singapore economy the US economy the UK economy that all the central banks mentioned it right but how much is she worth a billion dollars how much is the Taylor Swift economy worth multiple hundreds of billions of Dollars

you can't release that but tokenization can and then we can be incentivized to be Taylor Swift fans and you know generate merch and generate whatever and you create this token economy that's what this is all doing it's the future purpose we've seen it also in gaming so kids hang out on mining Gaines when I used to go to the shopping mall with friends and go and meet them kids now hang out in Minecraft and again once you start Adding um ability to monetize this you don't need to work so can you link that to the

AI argument again just so I can understand we don't have any work to do we're going to be at home I got it even even if we're given Universal basic income how are we going to find our purpose as humans right we're not hunter gatherers anymore we're not Farmers anymore anymore we're not doctors and lawyers anymore what the hell are we that's a fascinating change in and so it Becomes yes so it becomes Community that's why religion has been so persistent CU it's a it's a community cultural mtic that ties people together this is what

this is all about I'm interviewing the founder of terminal truth tomorrow I think Andy yeah Andy and the other guy involved with him as well interviewing both of them together to talk about oh nice who's the other guy Ryan Ryan okay who's Ryan Ryan works with Andy he's got another um project Called melium and there's a token called Forest that's built around that it's actually a charity that's been reforesting um but again it's it's it's again super cool and way out there way out there okay um by the way terminal truth is just I followed

that from day one really from day how' you find it randomly because I follow a lot of AI people cuz I'm super into the rabbit hole I saw it spinning up loved it saw the M Mark Andre and the thing thought Okay this is hilarious want to follow this and I was on Hol was on holiday wherever I was I was on a business trip when they launched the token I would have bought it because I've been following that from day one never got round to it and the blood and when you buy something you're

you're always a long-term holder so you would have been yeah yeah that's it went from nothing to a billion one of the worst feelings is when you miss something it's worse than Investing and losing money yeah but you've got to tame that Beast the fomo Beast is the most dangerous Beast of all because that's when you do all the stupid [ __ ] because your friend's making money you become desperate to make the 100x and then you start listening to your friend's trade recommendations and you get into them to friend recommends one good trade and

suddenly oh [ __ ] he must be he must be on the genius exactly invest in everything else they all Losses and you forget that this is the 1% that actually works I know so fomo is really one of the beasts you need to tame okay so so going back to mem coins you've talked about the long-term um value that M will bring to society yeah and kind of Society because it has a monetary aspect right monetized as a new cause for humans or not a new cause but a cause is going to be a

lot more important now considering that we don't need to be Productive we're tokenizing culture as well which is another huge thing for us yeah okay but does that apply to current memes that we're seeing you know the Frog hippo monkey dinosaur communities no this is nfts all over again okay so this is more the the whole pump and dump model which is fine it's part of crypto it's part of bringing that's right ad it's part of experimentation it's part of the boom bus that out of which comes stuff but You know we are seeing some

really interesting things we're seeing the r early rise of the agent stuff the agentic AIS now they're not perfectly agentic um it's still a bit very early stage but we're seeing how agents will use crypto as payment systems something I've talked about for a long time that's pretty clear being experimented again early stage won't be this agent create their own wallet and hold their own private queue or not yet they should be Able to I think um a cloud clae I think it's CLA one of them allows I'm not an expert allows the agent to

is do whatever you do on a computer like a cursor and they can create the wallet but then how do you store the wallet private key and keep it private yeah don't know yet but look people figure it out because as we know about this space it's this weird combination between ridiculous degens and Ultra smart people and they're generally the same exactly Yeah yeah and the ultra smart people become deons oh yeah and so they figure this [ __ ] out past and AI so there's a lot of people tinkering in Ai and suddenly there's

now Financial incentivization system and they're like oh my god let's hyper accelerate because we can make money out of tinkering in my garage with llms right which is the same idea of being able to tokenize anything cultural we have a so so in our business we have An AI Department as well so we've got an AI show we do a lot of work there we start to invest more in that space and it's completely shifted to mcoins she's got you know what other industry has immediate liquidity with hundreds of millions market cap so they're all

looking at ages to kind of Link him to MIM coins you smart people whether they admit it or not will follow the money at some stage and again there's nothing wrong with it in my Opinion no then then there'll be a bunch of scams and it'll yeah but what's happening is important what's happening is important is where people are coalescing around culture I mean there is signal in the fact that Dogecoin has survived this law when did Dogecoin launch 2013 or something 2013 yeah that's insane oh yeah in coin so so you said you're involved

in that space publicly privately do you talk about the it because I'm being as open as possible I'm only in two right now I'm switching at three really that's it yeah because my whole don't [ __ ] this up thesis is keep your core bets the the Bitcoins the ethereums the Salas and for me it's suie so I keep oh you really got as well um but yes I've been buying that in the open market because it's been the big outperformance like the Sal of last cycle so keep that and then I say well look

with 10% do what you want because then even if you blow it all up it's the People that go out to 80% of the portfolios means unless you're the best Trader in the world most people lose money over time so I've just got small allocation splits around over time but generally right now I managed to get I've been in Doge for the last five months expecting the election in the Elon nice effect uh and the other one I'm in just because it's just a brilliant memus uh smoking chicken fish I've seen that one I remember

they Requested on my space once I'm like is that really a thing I click on it I mentioned like Rand is like R was on the show like R yeah Mar it's like he blowing up like no [ __ ] way and they have registered a church in Texas so it is a church and the idea is they want to flip other churches in terms of value and they have the chicken Commandments they have all this wordage around it it's ridiculous it's hilarious it's like a montypython sketch that has Become a mean so I like

it because it's different to dogs cats frogs blah blah blah which was the N the whole old nft craze it just stands out on its own you know what it is it's like there's no other image it comes from the in from Reddit in 2005 this picture of this chicken that's ready to be roasted with a fish head stuff than it with a mbra in its mouth it's ridiculous but it it became legendary back in the early internet days oh really yeah so the meme Continues and now it's become a religion which if you think

about it the what we're talking about is a meane becoming a religion and religions are exactly that then memes stories told to people to get them around a commonality of standards of stuff like that so you said Doge the chicken fish what was the third one yeah um I've got a very small sing Forest which is this the AI one the AI one um never invested in goats no I missed it and I was too angry To then do it if not I was going to rage trade but no I missed that really angry because

I was there from day one in that um so I missed all of that um and then you know I've owned Bon and I've owned on not own anymore uh no I tend to once I get reasonably comfortable with what I've got I tend to hyper concentrate okay and then memes may be wrong maybe not be wrong I'm not really that fast not a big part but really my focus is on the other tokens I don't trade them but I just put my eggs in one basket and watch that basket yeah I'm a lot more

Deen than you yeah so we we inate projects really early so we try to get in really really early um and it's hard not to be successful in the current environment I just don't have the band Wick to the the honest truth like You' got people around you um it's just me and Julian battel why don't you build a team because that's not my skill set I think macro is my skill set I'm good at Macro I've done it for 35 years that's where I make money you should partner with someone that does that like

we're at like over 110 team members now and like the me one is growing the fastest even though it's still the smallest and we still can't keep up we still can't keep up well the way you're going to do it is fire all 110 people in use AI already not far off my friend not far off do you think you can create an agent that will be able to find yes without Question there's already one on on X I don't know if it's a true agent or not AI xbt or something like that what does

it do it's an agent that we're not invested in it I'm not I don't know about it so no and I've only just somebody brought in my way I can't remember who and basically what it's doing is kind of analyzing Discord servers X blah blah blah and some onchain data that's insane and it comes up with Alpha and it's got A token around it I'm not fully aware of it you know I don't own it but is it faster than you think is it I know we're not too de in the project but is it

a utility talking around it I have no idea I've only just gone down this Rabbit Hole just started to look at it thinking and I can't tell whether how real it is whether it's a human behind could be just a person could be a pump and dump could be a rle we have no idea just of there but I'm going to check it out Basically you can ask AI to build AI for you you say I want to replicate this you know we're not very far away moving so fast it's way too fast does it

scare every doesn't scare me but it's almost impossible to keep up so everybody I know in this space I've got to a lot of people in the AOS space everybody's underestimating the speed normally you over overestimate be short-term underestimate the longterm This Is Us underestimate the shortterm And longterm yeah I mean cuz this is metast La Square this is what's known as Reed's law this is the fastest exponential curve Humanity's ever got is happening in front of our eyes it was only two years ago the chat GPT 3 came out that's crazy or two came

out come at three and now look what's happening it's insane and the next models are about to come out any day now and it's just going to keep going the last iteration of chat GPT uh 10 it has an IQ of 120 which is more than the average hum is 100 but it has an IQ of 120 in every single subject known to mankind it's a pure polf an expert at everything better than the average person now they suggest that unlike Mo's law which is the doubling of computer power every two years it looks like

intelligence of um AI is doubling every six months that's insane so that means in six months time we'll Have a AI with a IQ of 240 which is about as high as humans have ever had recorded and then the year after that we're at 500,000 and then it's like okay this is lower land this is Agi it's like we don't understand cuz we're humans and we're so arrogant that we just assume we're the smartest things that ever live that is not going to be the case very very soon but how does that not scare You

because you can either be fearful or you can invest in your own demise and as part of this we talked about the agents the the agents using crypto rails crypto rails as a way of security and Truth within this world because we're going to have to prove who's human and who's not you may have 10 Mario bots in the future 100 but you're going to need to prove them and so you know that whole scaling of this is a huge blockchain thing people don't Know it yet they still think it's cryptocurrencies only there's what there's

so much to this technology so we might as well invest in our own future future in our own demise and my view is we've got six years before we break the entire economic model of the world and I know that sounds ridiculous but GDP growth is driven by is Trend rate of GDP is driven by three factors only over time longer periods of time population growth Productivity growth debt growth debt growth finished in 2018 and we're just increasing debt of serviceold debts Now population growth every single major population in the world is shrinking you happen

to live in a region which is not and guess what it's booming India booming why population growth but everywhere else in in the developed world population I've covered it very closely with President Novak so I know There topic and then um old people are less productive so productivity has gone down okay so that's the world we're in and I've proven this I used the labor force participation rate in the United States I can use it for every any country and if I invert debt to GB GDP they're completely the same chart so debts are just

a function of demographics um and so the only way to change that equation of having to refinance the debts every Four years that cycle we talked about is going to be changing the economic formula and what we're about to do is we're going to add infinite population growth and then by the time we bring down the cost for electricity our solar nuclear and all the other things plus the productivity from the AI and the robots that productivity number is going to go la la land so so we can see economies growing at 30% a year

and would that solve the debt issue yes Because it's debts GDP that matters because GDP is the is the engine that pays the interest payments on the debt or Services the debt the issue is it may not occr to any of us as humans 30% GDP growth okay so what do you do do you tax the robots tax the AI probably um do we have they get pissed off about it and they're like why why are we paying the tax that's another thing exactly but this whole equation right so okay so there's the economic model

I think by 2030 2032 we don't understand the the whole sty of Economics fails because we can't understand this phenomena additionally think about we were talking about you you build a a bot that trades well within well now we can do it already but within six months I'll be able to drop it into chat GPT and said code a better version of this and I want on a different time do it'll do it instantly right so you All you've done is build a business based on attention only now you do not have OTE in any

software at all it's the end of the SAS business model there is no mo mo is going to be community and attention but it's not going to be in product because we can copy everything in instant the other thing is and this is a great question be the artist asked me he's like R it was joking over a few drinks he's like why happens when the first person with AGI Just points it a financial markets they just win the game they become worth 10 trillion we have to shut the markets down I thought about that

and it's like whether it plays out that way we stand no chance as humans how do we price markets when a super creature can see everything they can they they're the ones that price the Markus now that's right they already price it in the short term because of the true trading algorithms but this is Like it can map out anything it can have the long-term macro thinking it can do all of these things so this is fascinating the next thing is this has come back into the crypto World okay so the problem is is you

build this amazing trading bot before the AGI comes and takes over let's say in the next six years before AI is ruining everything for us you build this thing and I copy you and then somebody else copies us okay so what we've got Here is an issue for venture capital and private Equity nobody's going to go public because the time Horizon is too short now because it's all about attention and not about business model modes some of that obviously still applies so I think the Ico Market has to come back it's the only way to

allow Capital formation and destruction at the speed of which we need it cuz I'm sorry but waiting 10 years for a VC to allow you to go public ain't going to cut it In the this world it's over so we got six years to unfuck our future and so all that's why I'm all in on this and crypto is the bet you could buy tech stocks it could be Tesla coinbase a bunch of them um but really the big one is crypto and that means at the end of 2030 2032 it's not you a single

date then you have the luxury of having secured your lifestyle that the uncertainty can play Out that does doesn't matter you don't need to be the richest person in the world you just need to be the most secure when you say the most secure can you explain that again so we all have dreams and visions of our future self yep and they may be overly ambitious or not if that if your vision of your future self is a long way from where you are today and you don't see that path that's Unhappiness if we're given

the opportunity to make a lot of money that we've been given in crypto this has been the fastest appreciation asset class of all time then we use that opportunity to try and Ratchet into a lifestyle that makes us happy now it could be we might all have the same dream I want the house on the beach okay my house on the beach may be different to your house on the beach maybe you want you know a corner of Mystique maybe I just want the place In Little Cayman I've got or maybe somebody else wants a

Surf Shack in Nicaragua but that's the same ambition that's but once you buy it and you own it somebody can't take it away from you and that becomes a lifestyle ratchet it's something that if the world is changing you can always go to your beach house and everything will be okay and that's what I'm talking about it's the security of life when when things get crazy you feel secure That you're not going to lose everything how how can so I've got two questions here we're talking about modes do you think thrown a lot out of

I'm I'm I'm obsessed in this discussion cuz I get very selfish in my interview anyone that listens to them they do well was probably why but I just I just asked the questions I'm interested in and he talked about um different modes is a personal brand going to become a bigger M now that people are looking for that Human touch yes I think trust trust don't forget that's what blockchain does is trust as well trust fails in a world of AI and everything else right so people want to trust somebody and they'll trust a human

over AI for help but for now okay um but I think what humans do is build communities around them so Community is a Moote it's the social idea that we talked about it's the idea of coalescing a group of people around mics or cause Or whatever it may be in fact most causes are mimetics yeah it's doing that so personalities do not unless they have Community it's the death of personalities that fakous head on TV who does that doesn't matter we can make them with AI it's irrelevant we make thousands of them what matters is

somebody who matters to the people around them they feel like they're the mentor they have a connection they have a Commonality there's another thing we haven't talked about I need to talk to you about is have you seen character AI yet no everyone has the same face you're taking a lot of notes a lot um character AI is mind-blowing so a friend of mine left open AI about two years ago year and a half ago just when it was start to scale and he he got his shares he'd been there early and he went to

character ale and looked at it it's like [ __ ] this this Is just Anime kind of AI character some I didn't get it I I heard it somewhere somebody tweeted out something about it and that Reddit was in uproar there's a whole car our character Ai and there was a bunch of kids in uproar because they changed the model and they felt that character didn't love them anymore I'm like what the [ __ ] so I go and see what's going on kids who have a loneliness epidemic because of what we talked about before

Are now befriending Bots we've seen the Japanese did this years ago but this isn't a aiing and these things are like an anime character that is like the cool kid at school who's a bully but you fancy him and girls have this relationship with this kind of fantasy character that's in their minds it's kind of like porn is as you get older it's kind of this weird stuff obviously porn's going to go down this route and Then so there's a lot of them there's even psychologists for kids who are having problems and used to be

to this this thing no this is not the thing what the thing is is when you look at them some of these have 500 million conversations already they've only been going a year so this is Tik Tock happening all over again when we're thinking what the [ __ ] the kids are straight down that Avenue like this there were the kids who are living in Minecraft which is the precursors of the metaverse the kids who were on Tik Tok uh short form attention user generated content and now here they are again um with their own

AI friends fantasy friends this is how fast it's moving but this is but this is already replacing a big feature of what makes us human like you're replacing human relationss now with AI already yeah without even AGI being here yeah wait Till you got robots do you mind if I ask question yeah yeah of course do you think I'm ter by the way hey teres I'm a terrible engineer and I decided to just tell chat PT to teach me how to build a chat bot using all my message Histories on WhatsApp and then no way

essentially I managed to do that over weekend I've only taken computer science 101 and that's what I've been able to do but anyways the question is do you think this needs to be mitigated how how do You think about the social implications of this because it's operating under Reed's law which is meta's law squared there is zero chance The Regulators catch up zero cuz what is to stop and they distribut it these models The open- Source models which they're not going to be able to stop I mean I did it with long you know yeah

we need we need open source models because if not we're going to hand all the power of the world world to a few Companies so they're everywhere and nowhere so if the US tries to ban them it's like crypto it'll come out of Israel or it'll come out of China or it'll come I don't know how we stop it so you're going to have to have ai policing Ai and you're going to have to have an AI in your kid's phone that polies it and what it does what about what about so Elon Elon said

that there's a 10 to 20% chance of A dystopian outcome out of all this in his taka Carson interview where do you stand on this I think it's utopian and dystopian listen a world where we have abundance total abundance the Peter dandis model of of uh total abundance where almost everything is close to free is amazingly liberating for Humanity the issue is is when you have a world of AI and robots there's no reason to procreate which is what I think Elon Actually is talking about you see the more our population doesn't procreate the more

we are incentivized economically to build robots and AI at a faster Pace to offset the humans and eventually we replace ourselves so this whole you know when you listen to Elon talking about interplant species he does not talk about physical he talks about Consciousness and that's a whole other conversation about are the what are AI models and are these large language Models just portals into human consciousness are they sentian we got to sit down if we can find time before either of us leaves New York because that discussion is well this is what I'm bringing

Andy and Ryan talk about can't I have gone spent a year and a half now uh looking into Ai sentients and what's going I know you that yeah and this is what got me into T of truth cuz Andy's looking at This too cuz Andy is incredible what Andy's trying to get to is figure out how to make this safe um but I'm seeing different models being aware of each other and talking to each other His Infinite Back rooms is super interesting what is it which is expain for the audience essentially is a place where

AI communicate with each other yeah with almost no human prompting whatsoever and they freak out they have a Consciousness most of these Models don't have me long-term memory yet give them long-term memory and they they will what happens to what happens to to Infinite Back rooms with that when that happens when they they'll break out completely they've already broken out before arguably ter of the truth has broken out they just figure out how to break out but humans are so narrow-minded we think of everything and Ryan wrote this in sapan terms is we think of

humanness As intelligence we are so wrong we are so wrong and so what do you think is human it's it's difficult to know but there feels like there is some sort of Truth to the concept that is as old as any religion which is universal Consciousness and it always sounds weird but why do all the religions have the same thing and then when you start to looking at things like there's theories of how the Universe that it keeps folding in on itself right so is that itself consciousness of everything that's known and the idea of

quantum theory meaning everything can be anywhere at the same time we don't really know what this all is but we know that everything has compute we are biological compute by substrate right now for most of the stuff we're using we're using silicon substrate for compute it's actually highly inefficient Which is what we're learning now but there's a whole bunch of people like the um Bas Jeff be Jos or whatever his name Jeff Bezos it's no it's the um he's a um I think he's from Montreal um a AI guy who is building biological substrate so

if you think about our human brain we use very little few kilowatts of power to generate enormous amounts of compute so we're already seeing a lot of experimentation on that that that's an exposive thing but once You realize that actually everything is computed we're all the same structure of the same atoms that's everywhere around us and they have been recomposed and reused in multiple different ways over the millions of the billions of years of of the planet and the universe but if you think of a tree a tree is biological compute but at a different

time Horizon it has limited compute but there's still a reasonable amount of compute compute but it happens At Small Time Horizon doesn't make instant decisions like us and once you start looking at the world this way and this is what the Ryan's talking about is the Meli which is the largest living organism on Earth is actually fungus it's larger than the Great Barrier Reef these connected so these are super connectors of knowledge and I think of a tree again a thousand year Olive Tree is a thousand years of recorded knowledge what of all sorts of

Things carbon stress every it's a much bigger topic than most people understand and how connected this all is and what it all means can I to one final question before all our heads explode is when you have when you have ai become the answer to all these questions you know AI becomes obviously own like it becomes God in a way it gives us the answers on everything it is God it's all the same thing that's what I got to I'm A non-religious person I've now got to the belief that it is all God the whole

concept of God this Universal Consciousness is in fact something yes bigger and it's difficult to Des cribe and I've been putting into words over time as I write Global macro investor as I'm trying to Grapple with what this is but it's all the same thing so when people take IESA they come up with the same conclusion when people take DMT they come up with The same conclusion when people have near-death experiences they come to the same conclusion yeah okay they the similar chemicals all religions have come up with the same conclusion and I think what

we've just done is AI is just a discovery of another portal understanding this so there's I know that's a bit [ __ ] up it people going to think I'm weird as hell no it is I spent I genely Think if people that don't understand articul no no if people want to really understand it they genuinely need to relisten to this and you know I'm sure you cover it a lot on your show to really dig into it um because I got to get Mark andon to talk about it as well so I was meant

to interview him I'm not sure if it's booked or not but I'm meant to interview Mark uh in the next couple weeks I'm not sure if it's confirmed um but yeah I had the same he didn't Confirm he said he said he's like yeah I'll do it and then exactly um the the one question is kind of taking many steps back one I missed earlier is in the short term what is entrepreneurship once you're competing with AI what do entrepreneurs do just for me it feels like the world of being able to create wealth is

over for humans to create wealth when you got AGI out on AGI not they but the answer is Star religion it's this idea of community that's how You've made money you've actually just recycled money of creating a name for yourself and recycled it into other projects but it's that it's that now what's really interesting if you ask a parents of young kids and you say what do your kids want to do and they will answer you I want to be an influencer you're like what the [ __ ] don't ignore that toxic and then you

go okay okay maybe the kids are adapting Exactly because having an online community in some way whether it's in a game or whether it's Tik Tok is a future in this tokenized world coming back to the mean coins the social tokens and what's it all worth and what is our point and in a dystopian World those communities become resistance yes and again go back to religion this is why we have religion because in a world that's not easy from famines and floods and Wars you give People a commonality your belief systems and it gets them

through it because being human and living on planet Earth is not an easy ride conclusion on my end R is I will create enough wealth to last me in my family lifetime live in a safe place and invest heavily in AI so I'm on the right side of history and hope for the best I don't think AI is investable and what do I do man I I convince Elon to take me to Mars I don't know what to do but then again Physically we're not the easiest answer and you're doing that you know all of

this stuff is exping experimentation this space is going from three trilli I'm just going to reiterate this three trillion to 100 trillion so that Journey we are 3% there and that is going to happen by within 10 years 2034 so you got 10 years and we're only 3% of that Journey everything else is [ __ ] noise that's insane all right well um that definitely went down I didn't touch Any of the questions I had I was over that's pretty common of my me I just make a lot of questions I touch maybe 5 10%

of them we probably hit 1% today is an incredible discussion I'm so glad you went down the AI path um and how how comprehensively do you cover it on your show relative to crypto I've spoken about it there's a video that everyone should watch which is like you have six years to change your future when did you film that that was done about four Months ago but it is really important so if anybody watching this you need to find the link of what it is start down that rabbit hole and there's there's a whole bunch

around the exponential age what this all means how the econom is moving this everything code ccle so this is a comprehensive set of work that I've been building obviously for 30 years but really over the last 3 years there this massive framework of how this all comes together and by show rala the journey Man is taking everybody down there it's the Nexus between macro crypto and the exponential Asia technology and this is the journey I'm trying to take as many people down this because it's hard for people to understand it I'm just kind of blessed

that this is the kind of way my braak you built a hell of a community haven't you Ai and cryp two most important industries and you're guiding people on how to navigate them or you you've guided me on how to navigate Crypto years ago now you're guiding me how to navigate AI it's an incredible discussion thank you so much man thank you so much really enjoyed it all right nightmares here we come that's insane consensus Hong Kong 2025 is where the global crypto Community converges to shape the next era of web 3 from February 18th

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for sticking around to the end uh look if you enjoyed it hit the Subscribe button and check out the video here on the right hand side I'm sure you'll enjoy that one as well and if you're ready for more go to real.com jooin I'll see you there