the New Year raises big questions for major economies around the world what is the outlook for growth in 2025 China and Germany stumbled last year with fundamental challenges proving difficult to fix meanwhile the US saw strong growth but Donald Trump's return and his tariff centered policies could have widespread effects for a deeper look at what lies ahead for correspondents uh for from New York Berlin and Beijing uh here's are beginning in the US Wall Street may not believe in Santa Claus anymore but they're certainly grateful for one older gentleman Donald Trump may not yet be
in office but he's promising large gifts to the market and the economy he says he'll support the crypto industry appointing crypto-friendly Regulators he says he can cut prices for consumers although it's not clear how and he also claims he'll cut regulations This Promise of even better times ahead has helped drive us markets even higher at the end of 20124 but some of his other plans pose serious risks if Donald Trump comes into office in January and imposes huge tariffs on Imports to the US then economies everywhere will face a big disruption and Wall Street might
find a lump of coal in its stocking [Music] traditionally the German economy is seen as the PowerHouse of Europe it is after all the largest economy in Europe but increasingly it's the economic lagard we haven't seen any economic growth here to speak of for years and 2025 looks set to be another year of stagnation now that's mainly because of competition from China but also a lack of global demand both globally but also in Europe and at home and what's adding to the problem is political uncertainty the governing Coalition here collapsed in November after months of
political strife and arguments and there are snap elections in February now the big question is what is the government going to do to get the economy going again we're not talking about fullblown recession but jobless figures are starting to rise slowly and there are lots of questions about whether Germany's export driven industrial model is still working for the whole country [Music] economically going into 2025 China's problems remain local government debt a real estate crisis which has seen families lose their entire life savings because of undelivered property and persistent youth unemployment now with the latter of
those you might think what about the emerging Tech sector isn't that a bright spot can't people go there looking for work well yes the tech sector does appear to have a bright future but it's just not as labor intensive we're talking cuttingedge robotics not crowded production lines so the government needs new sectors to emerge and to drive this it needs an increase in domestic demand but the more pessimistic Chinese people are about their economy the more likely these already conservative consumers are to save more rather than spend more and turning this sentiment around is going
to be very tough indeed well let's dig deeper on China Kelvin lamb is senior China Economist at Pantheon macroeconomics and told me about some of the key issues the Chinese leadership is weighing up this year generally speaking I think domestic demand is generally quite weak in China um you know the leadership recognized the need uh uh to boost domestic demand particular consumption to stop deflation expectation from building in economy so we expect to see U uh uh U uh more uh uh monetary stimulus to to to boost uh to boost growth um I think the
last time they did it um in terms of um moderately lose mon policy was uh for uh a while ago uh they reduce interest rate by 2% within uh 3 months but we don't expect the same magnitude of rates easing this time because circumstances are different now um but we think the the impact of rate easing on the economy will only be marginal um because most of the credit intensive sectors are still in do drums and China needs to find a new way uh to grow the economy which brings me to the second point you
know the um Chinese leadership is also prioritized you know to boost domestic demand particularly consumption um but the there's no not much new proposals uh said in the December uh meeting um but uh we expects you know Chinese economy uh I think the Chinese uh uh authorities to um uh to to to boost consumption through uh tourism spending internally uh maybe some consumption vultures uh which they have been doing before the Chinese new year but we don't expect a western style uh consumption fure uh on a grand scale uh uh for China to boost growth
