we have today been plunged into uh I think well we are now plunged into a situation which is beyond the brink this is the worst case scenario that everyone feared and the next hours are really going to count in terms of what happens next well we can speak now to Olivia padavan a correspondent at lauron today in Beirut thank you for joining us Olivia do you agree with samir's analysis there yeah this is a major moment uh in this in in this conflict up until now he and its backer Iran had had perhaps been fairly
confident in their uh capabilities to hold this front of support that they had opened uh in in support of their Ally Hamas on October the 8th the day after the the is the Hamas assault on on Israel they had been fairly confident that they had been holding holding the line uh and showing that they could be fairly um you know calm and and resist escalating to uh a a dangerous degree but in the past week that completely changed we saw essentially um vast SES of um hezbollah's Jihad Council the top military Council uh wiped out
in those targeted assassinations uh by the Israeli Army we also saw uh the Israeli Army essentially bring horror to the streets of Beirut and across the country um as a result of those walkie-talkie and explos and andador explosives um and explosions so essentially uh what we are seeing now is a a major Gap right at the top after 32 years in power it seems according to Israel's claim that Hassan asala has been killed this raises hu huge questions first of all who's going to lead this this organization the most heavily armed non-state group actor uh
arguably in in the world with a vast amount of experience uh heavily armed thanks to its Iranian backer with hundreds of thousands of of of missiles nasala arguably was seen as as bring bringing discipline uh to to the party who's going to negotiate a ceasefire deal uh in Gaza up until now Hezbollah said that they would not stop fighting unless there was a ceasefire there but who is going to be the key interloc between uh Iran heah and Hamas it creates another huge void um also uh what is the response of Hezbollah and it support
is going going to be here there is going to be an outpouring of anger on the streets because nasala he was more than just a leader he was a cult figure people would religiously follow his every word as we've seen throughout this conflict for the past year I've been there in in the neighborhood where he was killed for one of his speeches uh people uh adored him uh they would hold posters and cite quotes from him and really saw him as someone who gave them uh good accurate and and aidite uh leadership of course on
the Israeli side he was seen as uh Enemy Number One um but in terms of the significance of the Middle East I would put this on the level of of when we saw the Isis leader Al bagdadi killed kasm suani the Iranian uh Commander in Chief uh of the irgc killed and also Isam Baden the the the as well the Taliban leader this is a major major uh piece of news it could completely redefine uh the Middle East and also uh creates big problems for Iran in terms of its geopolitical strategy that it you know
it had been relying on Hezbollah as one of its main proxies to to gain control and influence uh over the region uh these are dangerous times no one saw this coming although unfortunately we we could see in the recent recent days that that the Israeli Army were preparing something much more significant but am right in saying Olivia and that's absolutely fascinating analysis because I mean you're right you know for 30 years he has been a central figure to Hezbollah he's made that group what it is today Are we almost saying that this is a a
huge geopolitical victory for Israel here and is this an equivalent scale defeat for Iran is it a victory or have they just created a whole new host of problems for example we saw that with the the assassination of is isma Han the political chief of Hamas he's been swiftly replaced by um uh Yahya sinir who is a lot more radical and extreme and entrenched in terms of his views and far less easy to negotiate with when it comes to hostage releases and and a ceasefire so of course you know there's been a long history of
of assassinations that's exactly how NASA's power in 1990 in 1992 after abas Al musawi the previous hasah leader was assassinated by Israel and instead what happened rather than removing the problem Hassan Nala came into power and became an incredibly popular leader seen as charismatic fluent in farsan and Arabic a great orator someone who really was able to bring different uh groups uh and factions together and also not only did he build significant uh military capability here but also uh significant political uh sway as well in Lebanon and so the question hereby it lies is is
this a strategic Victory maybe a quick win Yes actually longterm consequences could be even more dangerous uh for Israel and does not solve the fundamental problem about resolving the conflict on the lean's border with Israel all the situation in Gaza and Olivia you are in Beirut at the moment has there been much response in the city so far to this news Well essentially everybody's staying put uh certainly the newspaper I've worked for we've been told not to go to the office and try not leave leave the house because uh there have just been incessant strikes
uh throughout the night night we were actually very really not far about 3 kilometers away from the the the big big First Strike uh yesterday um but what we're seeing on the streets is is two things one uh people who have had to flee their homes overnight from the areas that were being bombarded and are essentially sleeping outside mosques uh in the streets in central Bay rout hoping that that area is saf for them to shelter in um and and secondly what we are going to be seeing is a iversity of opinion about this news
Lebanon is a complex country uh Hezbollah was mainly uh supported by uh by members of the Shia Community but it did also have cross sectarian support from uh Christians and and sunnis uh but it was also deeply unpopular certainly Christian um uh political groups have been heavily critical of Hassan Hassan nah and H's decision to open this conflict with Israel and had repeatedly warned that this was going to end in out War so again it'll be interesting to watch what their reactions are going to be and again this country is already on its knees politically
doesn't have a proper government it's a care caretaker government economically it's completely on its knees after the 2019 crisis people are traumatized still after the bayroot blast from the four fourth of August uh back in 2020 this is a population who really cannot withstand any more stress or or crisis but yet we have today being plunged into uh I think well we are now plunged into a situation which is beyond the brink this is the worst case scenario that everyone feared and the next hours are really going to count in terms of what happens next
Olivia really appreciate your time thank you so much for joining us thank you Olivia Pavan there correspondent at lauran today in Beirut I just want to bring in the Times columnist Juliet Samuel on this who's with us ahead of our news review which we'll kick off very shortly um Juliet it's felt like for almost a year now we've been talking ever since the Octo the seventh atrocities about the risk of this escalating into a full-blown regional conflict are we basically at that point now do you think yeah it's pretty hard to see how there isn't
going to be a uh major if not sort of fullscale War uh reaction from the Lebanese side um except you know in so far as Hezbollah may be in such disarray that they're not capable of launching such an offensive uh but then you would expect I guess from the Israeli side for them to take advantage of that um but the I mean the death of of nzala is uh it's it's hard to overestimate how important symbolically that is within Lebanon and um I've been to Southern Lebanon a few years ago and I I visited a
uh what's called The Museum of the resistance and when it opened in 2018 it was kind of jokingly called terrorist Disneyland by uh Western media but essentially it's a site of uh of former battles between Israel and Lebanon uh in particular um there's a lot of uh kit there and uh old trenches in fact from the 2006 War when Israel was forced to flee in complete disarray um left huge amounts of their equipment behind and basically Hezbollah turned this into a museum uh it's had more than a million visitors and the centerpiece of this museum
is a sort of big pit uh with an Israeli tank in it whose Barrel has been tied in a not and there's a big sort of gold bar in front of it as if you know a shield from God um showing you know how how the the The Invader was overcome and the gold bar has nazar's signature on it wow um you know so he really is uh in in some circles in Lebanon seen as the protector of of the nation from you know the southern aggressor and uh you know this is not going to
be taken uh lightly and there will be response of some kind and that's a really good point you know he is more than just the current leader of of Hezbollah you know he is a hugely important symbolic figure in the Middle East
