I predict a new pathbreaking president our first woman president and America's first president of mixed African and Asian descent which kind of foreshadows where the us is going we're rapidly becoming a majority minority country old white guys like me are on the decline in just 10 days time we might know who the next US president is as results emerge from across the states but before we get there these final days are going to be nailed fighting not just for the candidates or for the American people it really is on a knife edge and calling this
race seems nearly impossible well Alan lickman is known I don't know whether this compliment or not as the Nostradamus of American political polling uh he certainly has a good record he has correctly called Nine out of the last 10 presidential elections that's going all the way back to 1984 and uh the one he uh question marks over certainly had a late surprise now uh he uses a system uh of which he published under the name keys to the White House so let's speak to the distinguished professor of history at the American University Alan lickman I
think I'm right in saying that last month you did make a call and you said that uh you thought carela Harris was going to win is that still your position yeah I that is still my position I issued my prediction deliberately on September 5th 5th before the Harris Trump debate that all the pundits saying was going to be so pivotal in deciding the election because the big message of my system the keys to the White House is that it's governing not campaigning that counts and the keys gauge the strength and performance of The White House
party and I have not changed my prediction of uh kamla Harris when despite all the vicissitudes of The Campaign which have gone in both directions let's not forget you know Harris whipped him badly in in the debate and that didn't seem to move anyone or anything but my prediction still stands and I have a 40-year track record behind it and and if you could summarize you know why you think it's the case that she's likely to be elected what what is it yes I have 13 keys that have been right since I predicted Ronald Reagan's
reele election in April 1982 nearly 3 years ahead of time when 60% of Americans said he was too old to run again it's a purely nonpartisan system I've predicted the two most conservative presidents of our time Reagan and Trump along with liberals like Obama and the way it works of my 13 Keys If six or more go against the White House Party they're predicted losers otherwise they are predicted winners and here are the keys that I counted against Harris and the incumbent Democrats my mandate key because Democrats lost US House Seats in 2022 incumbency obviously
Biden is not running the vice president does not count foreign military failure the Middle East is a disaster a humanitarian catastrophe with no good end in sight that's three and incumbent Charisma these Charisma keys I have two of them are very high threshold keys we're talking about a once in a generation inspirational across theboard candidate like Franklin Roosevelt the Democrat or Ronald Reagan the Republican whatever you may think of Harris she's only been a candidate for a little while she hasn't risen to a status of an FDR so that's four Keys down two keys short
of predicting Trump returning to the White House and Harris losing that's why I predict A New Path breaking president our first woman president and America's first president of mixed African and Asian descent which kind of foreshadows where the us is going we're rapidly becoming a majority minority country old white guys like me are on the decline and that might be said to be really the the main motivation for Maga that old white guys want to fight back that's that's absolutely right now um this prediction this time around has you've had quite a lot of heat
in your direction and you've got into a bit of a spat with some of the forecasters who working from polls are saying actually things look like they're on Trump's Trump's side yes that was the same thing in 2016 where I defied the posters and all of the conventional wisdom to predict a Donald Trump win in the election which did not make me popular in 90% plus Democratic Washington DC where I teach at American University but I did get a note after the election on the Washington Post article where I predicted Trump's win and it said
congrats Professor good call and a big Sharpie letters Donald J Trump the keys are the alternative to the polls which are snapshots they are not predictors they are abused as predictors remember in 2016 to depending on the time of day you checked in with him Nate silver the famous compiler of poll said a 70 to 80% chance Hillary Clinton would win then when she loses he says see I told you a 20% plus chance she could lose which means if he can't be wrong he can never be right either I go right out on a
limb and tell you who I think is going to win or lose so I can be proven right or wrong for sure have you had any abuse from Donald Trump for coming out against him this time no but I have to tell you I have never experienced and I've been doing this as I told you since 1982 I have never experienced the kind of hate that I have been heaped on this time I have received the most scarless the most vulgar the most violent the most threatening kind of hate absolutely unprecedented in over 40 years
the security of my family has been compromised I've had to put the police on notes secure you know in a very strong way uh our home and I have to say I attribute this to the toxic politics of violence and disorder promoted by Donald Trump before Donald Trump sure I got criticized I've been criticized for 42 years but never this kind of hate violent and threatening criticism and my family being put in Jeopardy how worried are you about being wrong uh I'm always worried I'm 77 and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach
you know my keys retrospectively go all the way back to 1860 when we had no planes no automobiles no radio no television women couldn't vote African-Americans are enslaved so they cover6 years of enormous changes in our society our politics our demography and our economy but look I'm not psychic Jean Dixon with a crystal ball I'm not speaker Mike Johnson who thinks the almighty speaks to him my system's based on 160 years of historical patterns so I have a lot of confidence in it but of course they could be something so catastrophic to change that pattern
but the problem is you never know it in advance you could only recognize it afterwards that's why in 2008 I didn't listen to the critics who said oh America's not can never elect an African-American president I stuck with my Obama prediction or in 2016 when people said oh the Access Hollywood tape with Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women that knocks them out you got to change your prediction I don't change my predictions on the fly if I did I'd be wrong a lot Alan lickman thank you very much indeed a man worth listening to at
any rate thank you for joining us for
