In this program today I am going to discuss the two big topics that have happened in the world over the last 24 hours one is the assassination or rather the killing or rather better still the the death in fighting of the Hamas leader Yahya sinad in Gaza and the second is the aftermath of president zelinsky's speech to the rder and he meeting ings with the heads of the European Council in Brussels now I'm going to say straight away that in my opinion by far the more important event is the second zalinsky speech to the rder
the consequences of that the further clarifications that both he and his officials have been providing as well as the reactions to it um but I'm going to start with the death of Yahya sinir because it is the lead story on Pretty much the entire media and I think it would be it would be strange if I didn't start with it now the first thing to say is that Yahya Sina has been the leader of heras for only a few months since um um is Han was assassinated in Teran but he has obviously been running things
in Gaza itself for a long time and by General consensus he was The Mastermind behind the Hamas attack on the 7th of October of 2023 the Hamas attack on Israel which Took place then by every account he was what might be described as an extremely tough ruthless Hardline person obviously one could find much much stronger words to describe him now he was ruthless not just in his execution of the operation on the 7th of October but also apparently in the way that he has conducted some of the internal affairs of Hamas there are reports that
he has been responsible for purges and I've even seen it suggested Executions of Hamas officials who he felt had lapsed in some way he was an extremely tough organizer and charismatic leader he created the military uh or or rather he re he built up the military force of Hamas in inside Gaza to the level that it was able to conduct the operation on the 7th of October and to resist the Israelis in the year that has followed entirely Unsurprisingly indeed entirely naturally in Israel itself he has become a figure of Fear and Loathing and the
Israeli government but not just the Israeli government but most of Israeli Society um have wanted him eliminated and he has now been eliminated and that leads me to a number of a number of other further things firstly he was not eliminated as a result of an assassination I've seen several attempts made to describe the Events that took place as an assassination this is ex complete different from the assassinations of hania ofad shuk of Hassan Nala of other Hezbollah and indeed Hamas officials it seems that he was caught in the open uh um he was caught
in the open sin was caught in the open um he apparently made some mistakes which caused him to be um detected by um an Israeli Patrol they didn't know who he was a fight between them and various Other members of his uh group ensued he went on fighting and he was killed in battle now I I'm going to say straight away that I think that the Israeli authorities from their own perspective have probably made a mistake by publishing the video of his death I stress a political mistake it is interesting to see how um senoir
died but of course in terms of his supporters his followers very large group of supporters and followers they Will have seen him dying in battle um to them he will appear a Marty for the court it is after all a theological cause which Embraces martydom and I think they will be more inclined to um support his reputation and to want to follow in his footsteps um than otherwise specifically than otherwise if this film had not been shown I'm not sure why the Israelis did that I think From their own perspective it was a political mistake
just say anyway let's put that aside and I accept it's not perhaps the most important thing I think this is a good moment to take a step back and look at where we are um hania is sorry um sinoa is dead he apparently masterminded the operation of 7th October 2023 he is regarded in Israel as um a force of Darkness somebody who inflicted this terrible disaster on Israel a year Ago someone who the Israelis said it was essential for them to eliminate since those events of the 7th of October 2023 Israel has been engaged in
a prolonged operation in Gaza in which it has still proved unable to fully establish control over Gaza in which thousands of people have died in which there's been massive devastation in which there is a humanitarian catastrophe in which there are all sorts Of reports in fact I don't think there reports I think they're indisputable facts that people are running out of food and water and that there's widespread Mal malnutrition the Israelis make their own claims as to who is responsible the international agencies have however been pointing their fingers at Israel so has some of the
media as well um anyway that has been ongoing the fighting has been ongoing Israeli soldiers have been Killed the hostages who were taken hostage on the 7th of October many of them are now dead some of them however are still alive but they are still in hamas's hands and in the meantime the Israeli economy is Contracting thousands of people have left Israel um Israel has been attacked with rockets and missiles by Hamas by the houis by Hezbollah from Lebanon it is involved in a battle in South Lebanon I discussed it some days ago I said
that Some people seem to think that the Israelis are moving from success to success there against minimal resistance I am not there I'm not able to say exactly what is going on but it seems to me that the best evidence that I've seen suggests otherwise that for the moment at least Israel has not been making the dramatic progress that perhaps it expected and looming over everything there is this fear now of a confrontation between Israel and Iran And a confrontation which the Israeli government or at least factions within the Israeli government have given every appearance
of seeking a operation a a conflict in which Iran has recently demonstrated that it has a powerful missile capability in which it can strike anywhere it wishes inside Israel Confident that a large proportion of its missiles will get through a confrontation in which according to the financial times Israel itself is running short of air defense missile interceptors and where the United States may have difficulties making up the numbers in terms of air defense missile interceptors meanwhile around the world there has been huge criticism of Israel there have been protests in London and In other European
cities there have been many many protests in the United States there's been criticism in Congress in the United States criticism of Israel which once we would never have expected to see the US Administration has spoken about imposing a blockade on weapons deliveries to Israel unless a ceasefire happens in Gaza within the next um 30 days I don't take any of that seriously I don't think anybody does but nonetheless the administration is saying That and it is a remarkable fact that they are saying that and there are now court cases in the hake in which Israel's
conduct is open to criticism and in which there is a case being brought against the a convention in the international court of justice and another case in which the prosecutor the chief prosecutor of the international criminal court is seeking is seeking arrest warrants against prime minister Netanyahu and Israel's defense minister you are of galand so all of this has happened and to repeat again Hamas is still there it continues to be it continues to put out resistance in Gaza there's lots of debate as to how badly damaged it has been certainly it has lost thousands
of its Fighters but it does seem as if a core of Fighters are still there still resisting and that their number is being reinforced by more Fighters and as I said there's this fighting with in southern Lebanon Hezbollah continues to launch rockets against Israel the H is continue to launch rockets against Israel and as I said looming over looming over everything there is the possibility of a war between Israel and Iran with Iran looking perhaps militarily more powerful as I've discussed in recent programs than some people in Israel and the United States Might have imagined
well hania is oh sorry sinoa is dead this it seems to me is an opportunity to call a stop the Israelis can say that overall mission is accomplished the architect The Mastermind of 7th October 2023 is dead revenge on him has been achieved I'm not sure myself that revenge is ever a worthwhile objective To pursue but of course others think otherwise if Israel's objective in part was Revenge well they have arguably achieved it and they have taken out removed from the picture one of the most dangerous and charismatic and Powerful figures within Hamas one of
the key individuals who the Israelis themselves spoke of as one of their greatest and most terrible adversaries so they removed him them the Scene they can say mission accomplished they can say that the balance has been redressed Hamas has been critically weakened his military Chief sinoa is dead its political Chief hania is dead Israel has not been forced into any substantive concessions so the moment this is a good moment to call a stop and declare victory that from there Israel can then move forward to negotiate the ceasefire In Gaza get the hostages released negotiate the
ceasefire in South Lebanon Hezbollah has many times said that if there is a ceasefire in Gaza they will agree to a ceasefire in in in the area of Israel's border with Lebanon and the war with Iran with all its dangerous and unpredictable consequences can be awarded and prime minister Netanyahu himself can come forward and say that all of his Actions over the last year have achieved success sinir is dead Haner is dead Hamas is wounded the people of Gaza and Hamas itself have had demonstrated to them the force of Israel's power that's again not an
objective that I feel comfortable with but I'm talking from an Israeli perspective now Hezbollah has been weakened its Chief na nazala has been killed the Extent to which it is incapable of preserving its own security systems has been exposed and Iran also has been exposed as incapable of Defending its proxies and if prime minister Netanyahu were to say that especially if after a ceasefire he was able to get the hostages released well in that case I think he would be in a very strong position politically within Israel him itself he could even call an election
With a good Prospect of winning that election and who knows he might in that case finally be able to form a new government in which he didn't have to rely anymore on people like benir and smotri extremists with whom in whose company I suspect at times he himself feels uncomfortable able well that I think would be the rational thing to do and it is with some shall we say bafflement that Nonetheless I don't expect prime minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government to follow that course on the contrary all the indications are reports from Reuters comments
that have appeared in all other places that prime minister nyaku and the other members of his cabinet so far from wanting to draw a stop to draw a line I was saying to themselves we have them on the ropes this is further proof that events Are going our way we've eliminated nzala we've eliminated sinir let's double the triple down on what looks like success and let's go ahead and have that war with Iran now if that happens if that happens then I think that sinoa will simply be replaced by other people every bit as Hardline
and as determined as he is the nature of organizations like this kind and this is a point recently made in a program I did with him on Daniel Davis deep Dive by Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis based on his own experience of dealing with organizations like this as a US military officer serving in the Middle East what will happen is that as I said other people will simply take sino's place whenever an organization like Hamas loses a leader particularly in the circumstances that the Israelis have themselves informed us howas lost this Particular leader fighting in battle
there will be people who will be inspired and I'm afraid that is the right word or that is the right word who will be inspired to take his place and in the meantime the elimination of sinir which as of now looks like a major success in that event that success will quickly fade instead of it being a decisive moment in this crisis in the Middle East it will become a punctuation mark and just to say if is Israel does drift into a war of attrition with Iran if there are missile strikes by Israel missile and
air strikes by Israel against Iran and if Iran for its part responds with missile strikes against Israel well very Soonly very soon Sina the death of Sina will be forgotten nobody will remember him except those inspired by him um it will be seen as just one event in a long war and not even an especially important one so this is the decision that prime minister Netanyahu and his officials now need to make every indication as I've said is that they've made that decision they're going to be Encouraged to move forward with that war against Iran
they're going to continue on what I have to say seems to me a March of folly but there it is I can only observe and express my view it is for prime minister Netanyahu and His official as well as the officials in the United States who have a certain amount of influence over what now happens it is for them to make the Decision to finish if what I expect happens if the war in Gaza continues if the war in South Lebanon continues if the attack the threatened attack on Iran now takes place if there is
no ceasefire in Gaza sinoa will be replaced and his name will simply become one of a long list of people who've died in this conflict a conflict that extends all the way back to 1948 and Beyond through the 1940s and the 1930s and the 1920s in all the fighting and bitterness and anger that has been the story of the modern Middle East well there it is those are my views I've set them out we'll see what happens over the next couple of days now let me turn to what I think is the more important event
of the last 24 hours I discussed yesterday at Great length in my program it's utterly extraordinary the this Astounding speech that President zalinski made to the rder I discussed that speech principally focusing mostly on the fact that those people who think that president zeleni was making that speech in order to try to force the West into supporting Ukraine with an implicit threat that if that didn't happen he would go ahead and negotiate capitulation terms with the Russians I argued yesterday that that was wrong that the people who were Saying that had obviously not read the
speech in itself for the record zilinsky has now given an interview to the financial times in which he makes that very Point that he's not going to negotiate and any idea that he's interested in allowing Russia to occupy any territory which he says is Ukrainian in order to get a freeze of the conflict any idea that That's in anyway part of his thinking is simply wrong this is what the financial times says the Ukrainian president said Western officials floating an arrangement where KF trades Russian occupied territory for NATO m membership had not consulted him people
never said this to us people are afraid of telling me he said urging these officials to put it on the table openly to speak to us not through some third party speak with us zalinsky said he was open to peace Proposals from other countries as long as they were real and did not seek to undermine support for his own and what he's of course referring to is his own piece proposal which is for the Russians to withdraw from all the territory that they control uh which previously before 2014 was Ukrainian including Crimea he wants them
to pull out of all of that and only then negotiations can begin and these will be negotiations about the Terms of Russian reparations to Ukraine war crimes Trials of Russian leaders and that kind of thing so the only plans that he's prepared to look at are plans which are identical to his so that in effect means that any idea of land for land for Nat giving up land for NATO any other proposals for ceasefires all of that um that's simply not part of zin's agenda at all in fact in terms of proposals for ceasefires from
others he says as much he says Brazil you have a plan great the proposition from China we're not against but guys please don't divid Us in other words you're not really interested now I spent a lot of time discussing all of that in my program yesterday but I'm going to say straight away that that is not the biggest single most important message of zalinsky speech um I should say his speech that he was very busy in the next few hours he went to Brussels where he met with The European Council the leadership in other words
of the EU he's also been speaking to all sorts of people and there's been an extraordinary article in the German newspaper built ziton which has given a further insight into his thinking and well in all of this in all of these discussions we can start to flashh out a little bit more clearly what his so-called Victory plan among to obviously membership of NATO and he's been talking about this Constantly he talks about this again in the Financial Times article um Financial Times put it like this Val zalinski said a formal invitation to join NATO is
the only way Ukraine can survive Russia's Invasion interesting admission by the way that anything short of that would presumably read lead to R to Ukraine's defeat the weather its survival would be in japy well that is not exactly the same thing but anyway he then goes on to say that Ukraine zinsky Said Ukraine joining the us-led military Alliance was essential in bringing President Putin to the negotiating table except of course as is clear he's not really talking about the kind of negotiations that are intended to lead to the end of the war they the kind
of negotiations that happen once a war has ended and the Victor is dictating terms and then he goes on to say we cannot be very strong without having an in Invitation which strengthens our diplomatic ways to end the war the war will finish when Putin is eyes of is olated and pushed by other partners to diplomacy I mean he's scrambling the words but what he basically wants is an ultimatum so he wants Ukraine in NATO he wants an ultimate to Putin as he makes very clear he wants a major military force from NATO what he
calls a comprehensive conventional deterrent capability to be established in Ukraine In subsequent statements he's made it absolutely clear that what he's actually talking about is a NATO Army in on the territory of Ukraine and well he said some other things first of all he's admitted that there are three secret protocols appendices to his victory plan he says that the United States and the other leading NATO States know what they are but he's not going to discuss Them it's not at all difficult to work out what they are given other things that he had been has
been saying very alarming things that he has been saying he is in effect saying that he wants Ukraine to be brought fully under the US's nuclear umbrella and he's broadly hinting at positioning of US nuclear missiles on the territory of Ukraine itself precisely those things in other Words which the Russians expressed so much alarm about in the run up to the start of the special military operation that they said at the time that zalinski was considering referencing a speech that he had made at the Munich security conference which the Russians said confirmed the enormously dangerous
threat that Ukraine was to Russia's security itself and which was one of the reasons Though not the only reason why they began the special military operation so that's what zalinski says and now has said something else and um he apparently said it in public I've got the exact words but it was backed subsequently by an article that appeared in the German tabloid newspaper buil zon and he says that if he doesn't get all of the things that he wants then Ukraine will move forward to Acquire its own nuclear weapons to C capability he said that
he said as much to Donald Trump when he met with Donald Trump in New York in September that it was either NATO membership or Ukraine going nuclear he apparently or he claims that he told Donald Trump that Ukraine had been betrayed before because it had been forced to give up its nuclear weapons and had that the you know and on the basis of guarantees in The Budapest Memorandum which were never honored anyway that is what zalinski said he went out of his way or he he he gave the clear impression that Donald Trump agreed with
him which I am absolutely sure that Donald Trump did not do I remember as I said the aftermath of that meeting I remember an angry glaring zalinski coming out of the meeting a beaming Donald Trump Donald Trump wasn't talking about any of these things he was talking instead about um The fact that he had good relations with zalinski but he also had good relations with Putin and he seemed to be hinting at a genuine diplomatic settlement not the kind of ideas that zalinski is talking about but anyway zalinski tried to involve none other than Donald
Trump in all of this and billt ziton says that they were told some months ago by a top Ukrainian official who is involved in weapons procurement Issues that should not make this person by the way difficult to identify and anyway this person who almost certainly was talking on behalf of zalinsky himself this person said that if the go-ahead was given zalinsky has all the material and the expertise in order to acquire for itself a nuclear weapon within weeks anyway this provoked concern we'll come to that shortly um all the indications are that A number of
people in Brussels told zensky this was incredibly unwise language um I suspect there was also all kinds of phone calls made anyway whatever zalinski then seemed to walk it back he basically said that you know yes Ukraine does have the capability to acquire nuclear weapon weapons but that he doesn't intend to do so or anything of that kind so Anyway that is the proposal that as far as I can see zalinski is now making to the Western Powers he says give me what I want give me the weapons I want send your army to Ukraine
um Place Ukraine under a nuclear umbrella I'm guessing now but I suspect he's also saying that the United States should be allowed to position its nuclear weapons in Ukraine itself maybe outside NATO uh the fact that he's Talking about a comprehensive conventional deterrent capability in Ukraine does not mean that he's excluding a nuclear deterrent capability he would doubtless describe it in Ukraine also and anyway he says do all of that but if you don't do it well I have the option of going nuclear all by myself so that's my threat to you and well if
you do do it well Ukraine is full of all sorts of Natural Resources lithium and coal and all kinds of other precious metals and uh and Grain and whatever and well you can have that too so the threat and if you like the payout all in one now let me say straight away this is incredibly Reckless extreme language on zelinsky's part I I'm going to say also that I think that zilinski Has been busy telling everybody in the west that he can about these proposals for months now going all the way back to the time
when his victory plan was been Cobble together back in August I think he's been very very busy uh going from Capital to Western Capital he went to Washington he went to New York he spoke to people there um he's been to London he's been to all the major European capitals and he's been carrying this set Of ideas together with both the threats and the bribes uh with him and he's been taking them out and presenting them to everybody all the time time so I think that Western leaders collectively have known about this for months but
that doesn't mean that they wanted it all to be made public in the way that zalinski has just done I said in the last two programs that I have done that it has been a striking and remarkable fact that the media in the West has been saying as little about zelinsky's rer speech as it can there have been a few articles about it it has not been completely ignored but overall I think it's fair to say that at least in Britain the British public has very little idea has very little sense of the extreme positions
that he is essentially taking and it is completely Understandable that Western governments would not want zalinski to be talking publicly in this way it's completely understandable why um the media in Britain and elsewhere might have been given a gentle steer to say as little as possible about this this speech and about these other comments that zalinski has been making because they are disastrous the Western public Western militaries most western political Figures will absolutely choke at these these proposals the idea that um Ukraine might of itself press forward and acquire nuclear weapons capability the threats the
threat to acquire a nuclear capability unless NATO membership is provided without delay the demand that NATO forces be sent to Ukraine and that they be backed with nuclear threats coming from the West itself are having Ukraine placed under The US nuclear umbrella the further the further demand that Ukraine be brought into NATO and that there should therefore be a complete guarantee by the Western Powers obliging the Western powers to go to war with Russia on Ukraine's behalf all of that would have shocked and stunned and horrified the Western public if it was ever presented to
them a starkly as zalinski himself has now presented it So the Western leaders do not want this matter to be widely canvased after all they have invested a huge amount in Ukraine and by the way in zalinski himself and to have a leader that they have backed in the way that they have backed zalinski coming forward and talking in that way is not something that they are happy about at all one European leader who of course has been skeptical about the whole Ukraine Enterprise all Along Victor Oran is already in effect saying I Told You
So he says that this is a plan for a World War and I think he's all but right he says that Hungary will have nothing to do with it I'm sure that is true I but anyway um the point is Western leaders have made almost immediately clear that no part of this plan is acceptable to them NATO membership is not going to be extended there are not going to be boots on the ground sent to Ukraine and my own sense is that the proposal that zalinski still harps on to allow deep strikes into Russia which
of course acquire a completely different dimension if they're backed by a nuclear weapons capability well I think that the Western Powers the United States the Pentagon is going to be even less inclined to count countenance any of this I said in my program yesterday that what zalinski doesn't seem to understand is that whilst in the past he has got Everything that he wants from the West this time it's going to be different because he's not asking the West to cross the West's own red lines he's asking the West to Ross actual Russian red lines I
massively underestimated the extent to which that was the case I mean he's not just asking the West to cross Russian red lines he's inviting the West to charge across them and by the way um I should say the that This is what he said he's himself in the article in the interview to the financial times he himself says makes the very point that the West has previously rejected um proposals for weapon systems that he has made and they've always backed down and changed their stance so why shouldn't they do so this time zinsky compared the
debate to previous discussion over providing Patriot missile systems or F16 fighter jets to Ukraine where Western capitals initially refused only to come round and agree the reaction to the victory plan is exactly the same as to Patriots f-16s but we have to do it this is the only way we can survive the war will not finish until Putin feels like he has to finish and he only understands power that's zelinsky's thinking and we can see how in the past giving him whatever he has asked for has brought us to exactly this precise Position and well
now he's asking not just the West to Cross or charge across its own red lines but to collide into Russian ones and to risk world war with the world's biggest nuclear power so anyway there it is it's what zalinski has been doing over the last few months and it does have consequences first of all reading all of this all of the figures of the Kremlin The personalities of the Kremlin will now be reading uh zelinsky's words with great care and they will be forwarding copies of them to their friends in China India Brazil elsewhere um
anyway reading all of this the Russians are bound to be saying to themselves there is absolutely no way we can negotiate with this man or with this government in Ukraine the idea of doing so is incredibly dangerous given what Incredibly dangerous ideas this man and his government appear to have we were absolutely right to launch the special military operation back in February 2022 he's the ukrainians clearly have not changed their stance in any way since then the whole Istanbul negotiation was a blind alley the only way in which we can guarantee our own Security is
by eliminating this threat at its source and that at the very least must mean regime change in Kiev setting up a government there which does not include zalinski or anyone else who is either connected to him or who might conceivably shares the views that he does and that would be a tall order but I think that is what the Russians almost certainly are saying to himself themselves I think that what zalinski has just done is that he Has destroyed in effect the prospect the possibility of negotiated solution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine it
would take a political revolution in Kiev now of which I see no sign to make the Russians change their stance so that's the first thing that he has done he has also I suspect undermined any further move outside the West amongst other brick states amongst China India Brazil those Kind of countries to seek a negotiated solution to the Ukraine conflict several of them have tried China has tried Brazil has sted India has sted they've all come up against the reality of zelinsky's Personality now it has been obvious to me and to my colleague and friend
Alex christophor for some time that zalinski himself is a disastrously bad Diplomat that when he goes outside the west and When nonwestern leaders meet with him the outcome is Always unfavorable well after this speech to the rer after all the other things that he has said or which have been said on his behalf and by the way just to confirm I'm convinced that the article in built seiton was coordinated with him and with people from his office anyway um after all of that I I think it all bit inconceivable that the Chinese the Brazilians the
Indians and the others any longer will Believe that the ukrainians can be persuaded did in their own interest in their own self-interest to sit down and engage with the Russians in sensible rational realistic negotiations so those like Dimitri Medvedev in Russia who basically do not want a negotiated outcome to the war have now be handed a prize that they're not going to give up they have been massively strengthened Both in Moscow and amongst moscow's International Partners but there is I think another consequence of all of this which is that going forward especially going forward beyond
the current Administration the doubts about zalinski about Ukraine in the West after all of this are bound to grow the combination of arrogance irresponsibility extreme Entitlement the manipulative behavior that zilinski has shown over the last couple of weeks I think even Western governments which up to this time have been been favorable to him are going to sit back and notice and it can't but affect the way they View zalinski and Ukraine and the entire conflict from this point as it happens the word is that no Western Government none of the key Western governments are willing
to Acceed to zelinsky's demands he still apparently has some support from the Baltic states they will always support whatever whatever decision he makes because to say it bluntly they're as extreme in their stance as he is but even a country like Poland over the last few months has been cooling towards him and after what we have just seen and heard it is not the ult to understand why one way or the Other I suspect that support for Ukraine from this point on is going to reduce the ability to keep Ukraine supplied with weapons and funding
has been diminishing anyway from now on I think Western governments or at least the more levelheaded Western officials will be saying to themselves all of the this man this government is toxic let's keep as far from them as we Can now there is a further Dimension to all of this because of course if Donald Trump is elected president in November well he has been given a further clear-cut example of what a impossible person zalinski is to work with because Trump had a meeting with zalinski in September in New York a meeting that zalinski pleaded for
the meeting was intended to be private and here we see zalinski coming forward publicizing his own account of What took place over this meeting and attempting to involve Donald Trump in his decisions I cannot imagine that Donald Trump is happy about this and if Donald Trump is elected president and does become president in January my own sense is he'll be even less keen on supporting zalinski and Ukraine than he was previously so there we are a disastrous mistake a disastrous set of moves not just over The last couple of days but by the way the
last couple of months a set of decisions a set of actions which has not only shocked Western capitals but probably dismayed zalinskis and Ukraine's supporters and which now explains why when zalinski went to Washington it was so clear that support for him was draining away anyway there we are now having Discussed what zensi has said and what he's is threatening to do or said at one point that he was threatening to do as I said he did afterwards retracted the question then comes up can actually Ukraine develop a nuclear weapons capability um if that's what
it decides that it should do well the short answer to that is that it can and I think this is an important point to make most countries most industrialized countries In the world today if they put their mind to developing nuclear weapons I suspect could do so I mean I stress most not all and they would have to be industrialized but consider we are talking about weapons which basically draw on the science of the 1920s and 1930s that is to say science that is now 100 years old and technology that was perfected in the 1940s
uh now in the world that we have Today that kind of scientific knowledge and that level of technological and Engineering expertise exists in many places around the world and it certainly exists in Ukraine Fiji or morius a place like that might struggle to do it Ukraine with its nuclear power plants its heavy Industries it's Engineers it still has a lot of Engineers it's Laboratories it Still has a lot of Laboratories it it certainly can however saying that it can doesn't mean that he can do it in two weeks time um Ukraine would need to stockpile
the necessary amount of nuclear material I'm not going to pretend that I'm an expert in this field but I doubt that that can be done in any very short time scale not in a few weeks um I assume that if Ukraine had been covertly sto piling nuclear material for some time the fat Would have been detected the international atomic energy agency would have raised the alarm and the Russians who keep an eagle eye out for that kind of thing would certainly have detected it so um I presume that Ukraine doesn't have the necessary nuclear stock
piles and even if it did possess the necessary stockpile of nuclear material converting that material into a bomb and building the bomb would take time I'm not going to say how much time but Certainly more than a few weeks probably months more plausibly years I'm guessing it would take at least one or two years I remember in 1991 when Iraq um which absolutely did possess a nuclear weapons program and had Advanced quite a long way along that program and did have a stockpile of nuclear materials and did have the right SC and did have scientists
with the necessary knowledge I remember that Iraq in 199 1991 apparently a decision was made by Iraq's leader Saddam Hussein at the time when the United States was putting together the coalition Miss to uh liberate Kuwait anyway that Saddam Hussein apparently did give an urgent instruction for a nuclear bomb to be developed as soon as possible and he was apparently told that Iraq at that time would need at least a year in order to do It or even longer Saddam Hussein as he always did refused to take no for an answer um the scientists and
the engineers were apparently TR told to press forward and achieve it in a few weeks or months anyway but as they warned it proved impossible I don't believe that Ukraine today is in the same position is as advanc in Developing a bomb a nuclear weapon as Iraq was in 1990 1991 so I think if I'm sure that this is a bluff it's a bluff which everybody knows the Russians know the Western Powers now is a bluff but it is a bluff which will have consequences it is a bluff which the Russians in particular will be
determined remains a bluff and never develops into something else something More dangerous that they might have to contend with further down the line so there we are I think a disastrous set of set of actions um zalinski trying to pressure his Western allies and perhaps frightened the Russians with a capability he almost certainly in fact I'm absolutely sure he does not have but an illustration the events of the last couple of days and indeed months an illustration of how Dangerous he and his government have now become U the extraordinary risks and gambles they are prepared
to take and to reiterate again they have shown no interest in pursuing negotiations and as a result of the actions they have recently taken that option of negotiations in my opinion to all intents and purposes now no longer exists now just one further point to Make I have said in various programs that in my is my belief that the ukrainians came to the realization sometime around July this year that they were going to lose the war that Western military aid would never be sufficient that the Russian army was too strong that um the Russians would
win if events continued along the same Path and that Ukraine lacked the means to turn things around and well we see the increasingly Reckless and desperate steps that the ukrainians have taken since then firstly the K operation which we will come to shortly then this disastrous W Victory plan and the threats and warnings directed both at the Russians but also at the West which underpin it and it is important to bear in mind that This extraordinary behavior that we are seeing from zalinski and other Ukrainian officials is the product of desperation they know they have
lost the war they're not able to negotiate obviously they fear the reaction of the radical element within their society that's what the financial times called it and that's what I'm going to call it in this program others could SC others could use stronger words but I also have to say reading Zelinsky's speech listening to what he had to say reading all his other various interviews and his various comments I have to say that I think he has essentially adopted the way of thinking of the radicals himself I don't think any longer that it's just a
cynic IAL Poe keep Ukraine going as long as possible keep the money Flowing create the situation where zalinski is able to flee to the west and set up his Exile government there I think that by now after 2 and a half years and more of War zalinski himself however he started has now become a convert to this thinking and he's not going to change so anyway there we are now there is one point I want to make which also Bears on the military operations um the comment to built Cting about Ukraine developing its own bomb
if it was nuclear bomb if it was not admitted into NATO was also connected to the danger of another Advance by the Russians on Kiev the Ukrainian official who spoke to built ziton supposedly said that if the Russians returned to Kiev that is what the Ukrainian would do now I have said in many places now that Velinski and I suspect increasingly for his officials it is the war in the North in the kque area in Sumi and haraku regions potentially in cheru re region as well that really is the war that they are worried about
they are much less interested and far less concern concerns about the war that is taking place far away in the south in places around pakros and um and kurov and Sido or in toret or Donas or in those Sort of places um I don't mean to suggest that zalinski is prepared to seed any of these other places to the Russians he's categorically ruled that out I am only saying that he and his officials are now deeply worried about the security of Kiev and it's not difficult to understand why because as the Russian army the Russian
military grows in power And um Putin's um number two Dimitri vve the deputy chair of the security Council says that the Russians have now achieved 78% of their mobilization of their conscript of their recruitment plan for the year um which points to the Russian army by the the end of this year being very large indeed anyway with all of that happening and with the situation in Kos Region becoming ever more critical and with the Ukrainian Army itself weakening we're now getting multiple reports from Ukraine that the mobilization plan the attempt to recruit more people that
it has failed that it has failed to produce anywhere near the numbers that we were led to suppose that the claim that Ukraine was recruiting 30,000 men a month 150,000 over 5 months I understand that it is now widely acknowledged that the actual number of so soldiers who are being recruited is only a fraction of that number and burnhard at the moon of Alabama has just issued a very interesting Post in which he's pointed out that the huge increase in the number of people in Ukraine who say they're disabled is almost certainly connected with a
desire to avoid the draft anyway With all of that happening it's completely understandable that zalinski and his officials are worried about the situation in Kiev again and if we go to the situation on the front lines it's entirely possible to see why Ryan btic and others have pointed to the extent to which the ukrainians deployed a key part of their forces to kosk the Northern forces to cusk obviously in an effort to keep the Russians away as far as possible and to turn the tables on them by the way by capturing the nuclear power plant
but the very latest reports we're getting is that this is now turning into a disaster the Russians supposedly over the last week or so trapped to Ukrainian battalions in the kosk region one in the Olka area and the other near the village of liima in the Northwestern part of the Pocket now according to Ray doka further Russian advances since then have increased the number of troops the number of units that are effectively trapped to a much greater number leading to the Russians in effect cutting off all the Ukrainian troops all the Ukrainian units stationed north
of Malaya loia in the central area of this Kos pocket and rovi says that with the Deterioration of the fields with the problems with the roads with the difficulties of movement it's going to be very difficult for these Ukrainian troops to break out rova suggests that there will be an attempt made to try to combine all of these forces together by pulling Ukrainian troops away from the areas of husa and chasa um leopa these these Villages that are Located there to try to concentrate them into some sort of grouping to punch through these Russian lines
but of course if that doesn't happen then the whole situation for the ukrainians over the next couple of weeks could turn disastrous and well there are other reporters that take a less dramatic view of events in the Kus pocket but all of them agree that the situation of the ukrainians is Deteriorating fast over the last 24 hours there is um a um picture of Ukrainian soldiers fleeing from the from in m in the area around lubimka some say it's about 50 Ukrainian soldiers they're running across a road running across the fields they seem to be
completely unarmed they are being chased by drones they're being attacked by mortars Heavens knows how many of them Met their deaths It's haunting and in some ways terrifying pict of the battle in Kos region so the Ukrainian soldiers there appear to be losing the battle and losing it fast and it is highly likely that the best military units shielding Kiev are going to be destroyed over the course of the next few weeks well if we move elsewhere the same Pattern repeats itself now in many places um in chuar virtually all of the reporting and channels
and websites now acknowledged that the Russians have not only broken through in the southern part of chfa across the seki donet um um Aqueduct but that chfar itself is now at serious risk of being en circled some speculate that the whole of Southern CH ofak is now under Russian control or is being stormed that the Russians have for some Time now have been fighting in the central parts of chuar most I think accept that the battle for CH ofat is coming to an end the Battle of toet has moved to its Western outskirts I've seen
a report which suggests that it will probably could possibly end with a a complete Ukrainian withdrawal um as soon as next week well we shall see elsewhere um our old friends the Security agencies have told Tas that with the fall of maximilan ofka which the Russian defense Ministry confirmed yesterday um kurako itself is about to be encircled and other security agencies are telling tasks today or maybe it's the same security agencies are telling T today that SEL is almost encircled also and indeed there have been reports that the Russians have now cut both of the
main road roads into Selal from the from the west and the south and north and that they've also cut the railway lines and there's report that they're just a a kilometer and a half away from the village of visha which lies immediately to the west of selovo so it's been suggested there an actual cauldron and entrapment of the sizable Ukrainian Force inside selal is about to take shape and well there's all that continues to Be reports about this cauldron um that has surrounded the Ukrainian troops in the four Villages kurakova gik um venka and where
whatever so very situation deteriorating still um lots of fighting also going Along going on around kin um there is a report today and it seems a strong report that the Russians have now entered and are storming the village of Tor um along the jeret river now torsk is located very close to Leeman just beyond the um jets River the Russians appear to be steadily clearing all the Ukrainian positions along the osol and jeret Rivers they are as the ukrainians have indicated on the brink of launching an attack on K kopans at the Northern end of
the oscal river um it looks as if we're going to see see a sustained attempt by the Russians probably after the October rasp the period of mud and rign to reverse the gains of Ukraine's successful counter offensive of the Autumn of 2022 and all of that even as the Position of the Ukrainian forces in sasque as we've disc us is deteriorating with reason to think that those Russian reports that ver kamam yansa has been captured that those reports were probably true after all and that the Russians apparently now are in control of The High Ground
near cers itself so if zalinski is desperate then one can understand Why but he has reacted to this disastrous situation in a way that has made Ukraine's situation even worse instead of doing that which he should have done long ago that which briefly he did do at the start of the conflict in February and March and early April 2022 which is negotiate with the Russians accept Istanbul plus see if Some way forward to preserve Ukraine can be found he is now gambling recklessly and disastrously with Ukraine's future by making demands of the West backed by
threats and by the way also bribes which the Western powers are bound to be angered and affronted by and all of this behavior is of course going to Lose Ukraine more international support and it is going to play into the hands as I've said of the Russian hardliners who are making it increasingly clear at least in medvedev's case that they would not that they would rather not see any sort of independent Ukraine at all I don't know to what extent it is understood in the west or in Ukraine itself that for the Russian Hardliners for
people like MV certainly since he walked away from the Istanbul deal zalinski is the gift that goes on giving anyway that's my program for today more for me soon be most interested to see what people's comments to all this are but anyway in the meantime let me remind you you can find all our programs on our various platforms locals Rumble and X you can support our work via patreon And Subscribe star links under this video don't forget to check out our shop also links under this video and last but not least if you've liked this
program please remember to take the like button and to check your subscription to this channel that's me for today more from me soon have a very good day
