do you want to know why he's not texting you right now [Applause] [Music] warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only the content of this video and all other videos on this channel the opinions of the Creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all all right hello and welcome to camel Finance
I'm your boy camel and what a difference a single day can make to sentiment a with a single red candle we have gone from we are early in a bull market to it's crashing it's dumping it's over top callers all of this kind of stuff so what I'm going to do today is I'm going to do a few charts first okay and I'm just going to point at things and make sure everyone fully understands exactly what I care about what I don't care about where my inv validations are where my trades are and then there
can be no confusion because I know lots of people out there are day Traders and are really concerned about intraday price movements but for me I really don't care about hardly anything apart from two different levels so I'm going to do this first for about a minute and a half and then we will get into today's episode where I've got some interesting developments to show you so first of all objectively speaking big bit coin's price absolutely crashed yesterday right all the way back to levels not seen since four or 5 days ago so I can't
really imagine what it must be like to be super concerned by this kind of thing for me let's be really really clear okay just in case anyone doesn't understand we are long from the low of a stop below the cycle low from back here okay after a 100 odd per move to the upside we then nailed another cycle low and we got a trend line breakout to confirm it was in we added another position and now it's a long and strong type of deal until something occurs the only time I actually start to get concerned
is if price trades down and takes out my stop at which case we will pay a small stop on this second position we will lock in the gains from here to here on the first position and we will patiently wait until the next cycle low which of course is a weekly cycle low as well and then we should be able to get some tradable swings once more so let's be really really clear here yes objectively speaking we did crash all the way back to levels not seen since four or 5 days ago but so far
we are still holding support so far we are still and this is the most important thing above the cycle low so the only level I care about is my stop loss which as you can see on the hard right Edge is at 90,000 bucks exactly so until such time as either 90k has hit or we see a push to the upside everything that happens in the middle I don't care about for me it's over at 90k when I'm stopped out and if I'm not stopped out then it's not over and we' got a full cycle
ahead of us so that's Bitcoin the stock market is a very similar deal we are expecting the this cycle to kind of roll over and potentially break down and to put downside scenarios on the table but just in case we're wrong about this the best way to be wrong is to make money while you're doing it so if what we're going to see here is this double bottom into the cycle low is actually a two drives because it did slightly undercut it we got a thesis for a long cuz that's a swing and a daily
cycle low confirmed and now if this thing is going to run higher we are positioned for that and as with any cycle trade the invalidation the stop loss is right here on the right hand side okay 5815 is the stop loss until time as we get stopped out by trading below the cycle low qualifying this thing as a failed cycle then I don't care what happens and it's only reasonable since we are early in a cycle to expect a little bit more upside in the worst case scenario if we can get a breakout of this
down slop in red then it should be party time there after so similarly for the Bitcoin and the stock market I care about the level of my stop loss and until such time as we take that out and fail the cycle then I am bullish biased and I don't care about the intraday swings also again when we zoom out three weekly candles after the recent 108k top are very similar to what happened after the Bitcoin ETF launched at 49k top during January of 2024 What followed was 6 weeks of up only now when we zoom
in and take a look here doesn't this not look exactly like this so far so even with this 5% 6% move to the downside as ever the cycle low is the invalidation and until such time as that cycle fails then is only reasonable from a cycle perspective to be ready for some upside here not to mention kmer here thinks 90k is next I think 90,000 Next Level so there you have it okay 990,000 According to krar which probably means we're not going there and 90,000 just so happens to be the invalidation for any bullishness so
once more it's very very binary until such time as we trade 90k and stop me out and lock in the profit from the first trade then I don't care I can see why people do care because we liquidated 205 million in cryptocurrency Market in just 60 minutes yesterday so this again speaks to people trading like this zoomed all the way in unable to manage risk overleveraged unaware of how to size their positions and that kind of thing and of course that is what causes this but it's very important that we do shake out and liquidate
as much leverage as we can from the rookies because people like Michael sailor need liquidity to buy in 2024 they bought whopping 28,32 Bitcoin for 22 billion and the only way that we free up the supply is first to take it from the rookies the in experienced the people that don't understand how to manage risk and of course the people that think a 5% candle in a 70 Vol asset is something to write home about I always find it fascinating I'll move on from this topic in a minute but it's got to be said right
I always find it fascinating that a 5% move here gets people riled up gets people really angry and emotional but they completely negate that we're still up 71% in the past couple of daily Cycles so it's pretty interesting to me I actually feel quite empathetic towards those people even though I'm kind of mocking them at the moment because it must be incredibly stressful to live your life like that if you are blinded to this upside and the 5% down day is what really sort of ruins your entire day and has you getting all miserable and
stuff I mean that must be a pretty tough life to live so my heart does actually go out to these people even though I'm also kind of laughing at them the next thing is yesterday we saw very confusing price action because we got jolts come out job openings and it came in higher than expected so that's actually bullish for the economy okay where perhaps starting to see some level of repair in the labor market however with that said it's still very very confusing out there okay good news is bad news apparently and bad news is
sometimes good news but the jobs in the US these two right here are both conducted by the BLS and we're at this weird point in time where there's a difference of around one and a half million people between the two surveys according to the household survey the US has lost 1.3 million full-time jobs over the last 13 months but it's created 600k part-time jobs which is a net of minus 700k but according to the establishment survey the economy has created 2.7 million jobs in that same period and in November the household survey estimated a loss
of 355k jobs but in the same month The Establishment survey gained 227 krobs now keep in mind these are two surveys conducted by the same organization so in other words one of the bls's surveys suggest the economy is thriving and the other one suggests the economy is rolling over so so they both can't be correct right and of course when you've got this kind of situation going on it makes it impossible for the market to get some data like this and actually handle it correctly like how do you use this data anymore to know what
to do this seems to be a very very emotionally driven Market at the moment and that of course is leading to some volatility but again I make the case that that's why the invalidation levels are so important okay I only care about these two levels if these levels are not traded then I remain bullish by us at least whilst we're still very early in the Cycles we also got DT coming out and pointing at the data is fake the story is the ism Services report quoting so-called purchasing managers which don't exist incorrectly states that inflation
is rising that is wrong the ism knows it's wrong it's just another example of fake news so as you can see the data is challenging to navigate it's all kind of make belief and nobody knows what's real and what isn't anymore but something that is important is DT again says that interest rates are far too high and the last time he said something was too high it was a dollar back in 2017 just days before his inauguration so we've got this kind of history repeating and rhyming type deal simulation thing going on again the dollar
was too strong back in 2017 according to DT and then the inauguration occurs and the Dixie rolls over now of course something like this if it was to occur would certainly fuel a risk on and a big upside moment for the likes of Bitcoin and the stocks and all of this is occurring against a technical backdrop where we could potentially see the 10-year yield finally start to return to the downside the 10year yield just made a new high into resistance you can see this here and it did so on negative Divergence if the Divergence maintains
as it did in previous events it could certainly lead to a reversal in the yields we saw it here and here if we can indeed find rejection at resistance here and start to move to the downside of course that will fuel a big risk on moment in the stocks and Bitcoin and note as well the timing of all of this right as we are early in a daily cycle with a daily cycle confirmed for the stocks and of course for Bitcoin as I showed you earlier so can you weather the storm can you have an
invalidation level can you remain cool calm and collected until you have technical reason not to the Dixie still seems to be pushing up okay so the camel crew has again been on top of this the precious metals slowly but surely you know we got silver moving into profit gold looks like it is trying its best to confirm a new cycle it might have to have a flush to the downside the members know all about this Bitcoin we've already covered right you know the level I care about and as always the stop is visible right here
these are public levels public invalidation levels called out ahead of time until such time as 90k is breached camel does not care for the stock market until such time as my stop loss level is breached camel does not care and notice how we were talking about especially in the member section building our exposure slowly hopefully you can see this is exactly why we like to do that I won't say any more on that and the same is true at the da right so we know where the levels are to watch we know how to handle
them other than that trade safe have a fantastic week I'm your boy camel until next time God bless cheers bye net he's the man to see rocking the mucks with his contrarian stream trads like a pro no fear no shame sticking to his guns in his mighty game he's a bad ass oh yes indeed cam Finance got the lock its key taking a stories on a bumpy r [Music]
