Will The Next China Still Be China?

2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 China was poorer than quite a few African countries but now it's the world's leading economy today China is completely unrecognizable how to understand China and its modernization will the next China still be China Martin Jac a renowned China expert tells you why he's so positive about that well it's Splendid privilege for me to be able to speak to you uh in this talk and uh I hope you enjoy it 75 years China has changed so much in that period since

the revolution in 1949 China was just emerging from partial colonization from a really bitter Civil War and China was poorer at that moment than quite a few African countries and if you go back further in history 100 150 years in s an extraord feature of China was that over that whole period it barely grew at all it was about 1% a year so we come to China's extraordinary transformation today by at least one measure that is gross domestic product by primary purchasing power China's economy is the largest in the world it possesses probably more industrial

sectors than any other economy its living standards well I mean there's been such an extraordinary change in the situation and China is a significant leader in various Technologies already this is this is remarkable China has changed at the speed of light it's the most remarkable economic transformation in human history and it has taken just 40 years now what is 40 years 40 years is half the average lifetime of a person just half you know I remember uh my introduction to China the first time I went to China was in 1993 uh it was just a

sort of tour it was a tour up from Hong Kong and uh uh I was on this bus we were bumping along part of the road was made up part of it was dirt track and so on the road itself was you know there were so many different forms of Transport from the last 100 to 150 years on that road you know the latest flashy mercedesbenz with darkened windows but most of them were just very primitive forms of transport and as far as the eye could see the land had been cleared for development and although

it was in the countryside it was teaming with people and the people were so going about their business they were so intent on ending a life of poverty and so China was moving on from backwardness to eventually what you see today now there's one really important point I want to make on this and that is look n compared with 1949 or uh 1978 or today China is completely unrecognizable or is it is China just a totally different place or is it in some profound way the same China and I would argue that the extraordinary thing

about China and why it has been so successful over such a long period of History it's had bad times but it's had some great times uh three or four times probably the most advanced civilization in the world or one of one of the most advanced civilizations in the world China was born a civilization that's its template and that lasted actually until the late 19th century it was only in the late 19th century that China began to acquire some of the characteristics of a nation state for example borders I mean China as a civilization did not

have borders even today China I would argue is primarily a civilization State and only secondarily a nation state this is quite different from the West the west of all being modern Western countries born as nation states and they are nation states they behave like nation states China is quite different in relation to this and the important Point here to grasp is some of the the most fundamental characteristics of China which probably most of us in some way or other take for granted are really a product of China's civilizational roots for example relationship between State and

Society the role of the family the pivotal importance of education and many other things are the notion of the individual the notion of the individual is very different from the western western way of thinking about indidual all of these things are actually the template of China which is a civilizational template which has lasted all through these various different eras of China's history now we are at a major historical point china is reaching the point of modernity it has finally arrived at Western levels of development in some areas it's ahead of Western levels of development if

you go to countries in Western Europe some of the smaller ones especially China is in a different era really and the reason why this is historically so significant is as follows the story of modernization is essentially a western story it starts with the British Industrial Revolution in the first half of the 19th century by as late as 1945 modernization and modernity were an exclusively Western story apart from Japan every country was Western and what's more the west and Japan use modernization against the rest of the world essentially they colonized including China and in colonizing it

they deliberately held back its development they prevented modernization so essentially those societies were caught in a situation of paralysis and stasis that was a fundamental characteristic of Western modernization and Chinese modernization well it is extraordin different from the Western mentality Chinese modernization is sees its role sees its place in the world alongside other developing countries to give the opportunity for developing countries to begin the process or Advance along the process of modernization so essentially Chinese modernization you can think of as a public good for the developing world and remember the developing world including China accounts

for something like 80 85% of the world's population the West always remember this the W West is a splinter of humanity it is about 12% of humanity so uh the question then I think is well what what uh what is uh Chinese modernization more generally going to be like and I think this is a really interesting question China's Clearly Now launched on a major debate on this question okay I've made one absolutely crucial point it's going to have a different relationship with the world the developing world above all but what is it going to mean

in terms of what it's like and I think this is a great question a fascinating question is it going to be like Western modernization or is it going to be something different and clearly now China is exploring the possibility of being uh very different uh asking a different question not it's not narrowly for material grain not narrowly for profit but on the contrary it's thinking of it should it should be people Centric it should be in people's interest it should allow people to take command of their lives and take command of society in a different

kind uh of way now you know you can see all China therefore is embarking now on a different kind of growth the period of highspeed growth is being replaced by high quality growth uh uh green growth uh carbon free growth these uh integrating uh the real economy uh with the uh digital economy these are the now the key targets so China's going to be look so different in in 20 years time China's going to look so different what it does now people will be living in totally different ways traveling in different ways doing different kinds

of jobs all the rest of it but I leave you with a thought sure China will be very different but actually the next China will still be China because the extraordinary history of China That civilization expanse of thousands of years has been huge hugely beneficial not just for China but for the whole world and in different areas it's given so much and in this era it's giving and in the future it will give even more thank you very [Applause] [Music] much