hey guys welcome back now with all the uncertainty going on right now with trade Wars and tariffs and Wars like Russia Ukraine and then add to all of this the fact that the FED is still running quantitive tightening it's no secret the altcoin market is struggling and so this video is all about why the next s days are critical for the crypto market now all things going well this could be the final bottom before the big reversal and this is all about why firstly on Wednesday we have the crucial CPI print and then the following
week we'll find out whether the FED will be finally finishing quantitive tightening as everything going on right now all has to do with so as success or failure of the crypto Market as especially altcoins revolves around liquidity let's take a look at what's going on so this is bitcoin's chart and overlaid is the fed's balance sheet and for me this clearly says two things when the FED is doing QE and massive amounts this was the one due to co you can see the crypto Market absolutely soared and then ever since about 202 22 the FED
has been doing quantitive tightening and now this has been going on for about 3 years now the crypto Market did recover to previous Highs but if we're going to see the next leg up we do need to see a reversal in this this is why the meeting next week is very very critical if QT Finally ends this is going to be huge for the crypto market and if it continues then maybe we get another couple of months of struggle time will tell but Jerome Powell's comments next week are going to be very very important now
when it comes to Global M2 remember the FED isn't the only game in town and this is a highly correlated chart Global M2 and Bitcoin you can see just how correlated it is and it did say 2025 Global M2 is coming down bottoming march to April so this is pretty much what we're seeing right now but projections are that it's going to be picking back up in April so this is going to be really interesting to see as we may be coming to the final days or final weeks of this big big healthy pullback and
then if we take a look at what happened to Global M2 in 2017 the first time Trump got in a very similar thing happened it wasn't just a straight line up we did get these healthy pullbacks that happened and so far it's following quite nicely maybe a bit more time again saying that anytime from now over the next couple of weeks we could see this big revers but unfortunately the altcoins are tied to liquidity then the second big piece to the puzzle is now unfortunately until inflation comes down the FED isn't going to loosen conditions
also people are saying that the tariffs by Trump are going to be massively inflationary and inflation is going to shoot up now this would only happen if every single person that was going to buy is now happy to pay 10 or 20 or 25% more for the goods but what is just as likely to happen is that less people are now going to buy things if they're 25% more expensive and if less people buy then that is deflationary so that's a way where tariffs can actually cause deflation not inflation then due to the massive Cuts
going on by Doge in government if we hop over to True flation which is a realtime inflation index now the CPI is always one month behind and the last one we had in February was for January and this is where we were getting the reading around the 3% saying that inflation's going up now if true inflation is correct then in February there was a big decline bringing it down to about 2.2 so if we get an excellent CPI print for February this is going to be huge for Global liquidity and then again looking at the
one in March which we won't get for another month there was another drop giving us a reading of 1.37 so if true flation is correct and inflation is in fact coming down this is going to be huge for the altcoin market and then one final point also something very very interesting was just the seasonality of the S&P 500 so this is a 20year average and as you can see normally there's a big pop in February and then a nice health correction into the beginning to middle of March and this is exactly what we're seeing right
now and says about mid-march things start to pick up so also could everything going on right now just be tied to SNP seasonality so as you can see there are a few things pointing that were probably in the last days or weeks of this whole whole thing turning around and sunny days could be coming back and this is all why the next s days are crucial for the crypto market and so with all the uncertainty going on right now plus QT plus seasonality plus Rising inflation it's no wonder risk assets have been struggling however the
big question for me is the next 7 days is this when everything is going to finally turn around firstly we need an excellent CPI print on Wednesday showing that inflation is in fact coming down and no tariffs do not cause inflation and then this frees up number two for the FED to finally end QT and depending on those two things we'll either see a massive reversal or continuation of the same so there you are guys hope you enjoyed now fingers crossed that it all goes our way and we will all soon see to get rid
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