Bitcoin & The Pi Cycle Top Indicator - A Crucial Update

in today's video we're going to be focusing on the pi cycle top indicator because we've seen a parabolic advance in bitcoin's price action rallying to new alltime highs and Beyond and this has considerably flicked up this moving average which means that we're going to get a quicker bearish crossover in the P Cycle top indicator to dictate a bull market peak in bitcoin's price action if we don't pull back so we'll be talking about that in today's video so subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future like this video if you enjoy

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P Cycle crossover indicator we've seen a bull market Peak occur within a matter of a few days so it's really important to just take stock and keep in mind that this crossover will happen inevitably in the future and we need to be looking at these convergence of the EMAs in the future because it's this convergence over time that's going to signal that bearish crossover that will dictate a Bitcoin bull market Peak and at the moment we are far away and a few months ago we were actually seeing Divergence in these two moving averages but now

given the parabolic advance for bitcoin's Price action we're actually seeing convergence and we've been seeing this convergence for quite a while right now so it's been several weeks where we're seeing convergence in these moving averages and as as long as this convergence continues we're going to see a crossover in these moving averages really important to talk about these moving averages in particular because the 350 day moving average multiplied by two that's this green moving average it's a less sensitive moving average when it comes to changes in price action it tends to move a lot slower

so it's not going to be flicking up as much as it flicks up for example here here it's a very less sensitive uh moving average so it doesn't move too much but does represent the price point of $130,000 and that means that this could be a resistance in the future just like it was a resistance back in the past here this resistance check right over here actually promoted quite a bit of a pullback but the next time we get there it's probably going to maybe even pull back a little bit and act as a point

point of rejection for bitcoin's Price action but it's going to really just likely cause a shallower pullback just to give us an idea that indeed as a point of rejection this moving average is actually weakening so in the future I do expect maybe some sort of rejection around here but it's not going to be a strong pullback by any means and one of the ways to look at this would be for example 2021 back here just have a look here how we were rejecting a little bit back here maybe prompting a little bit of a

reaccumulation range before actually breaking up Beyond it whereas in the past we actually suffered quite a bit of a pullback right over here and it's not just 2021 or 2019 here in the early stages of 2016 we also suffered a bit of a pullback and got a few more pullbacks right over here as well but ultimately in the future that point of rejection weakened that point of resistance weakened to the point where we saw overextension towards the upside and actually later it turned into a volatile support so I expect something similar in the future for

this green moving average and that green moving average starts at around 130k so once we get to 13k maybe there will be some turbulence maybe some volatility to the downside and upside but I expect that will overtime within a short amount of time actually be able to break that as a ceiling and maybe establish it as a floor going forward but that's a story for another day isn't it because we're at around 110k roughly speaking right now so we need to talk about potential pulling back scenarios and the orange 111 day moving average this one

is the more sensitive moving average when it comes to changes in price action it's going to be flicking up uh much more as we've been seeing in recent weeks as well in particular given the price action Ascension this moving average is flicking up quite considerably and it's going to be considerably flicking up going forward as long as Bitcoin maintains these highs and doesn't pull back so we're going to be seeing as time goes on this figure will change from right now at present 75k but then it's going to be changing and inclining and representing higher

and higher prices at 75k at 76 77 78k over time and it's important to get a pullback as a result because that needs to this moving average it needs to start to flick down a little bit because if this continues we're going to get a sooner bull market Peak for Bitcoin as per the bearish crossover we'll be talking about that in a moment so stay tuned because this is still a support in the future and 75k really interesting how this 111 day orange moving average is an interesting support because it actually ties in with the

CME Gap that we've left unfilled on this recent parabolic Advance granted of course we have a very small CMU Gap forming here and that's going to be very easy to fill even if we were to see a dip and indeed we are seeing a bit of a pullback right now this little CME Gap is probably going to just get filled naturally whether it's a downside Wick a small dip or anything it's between 102k and 103k but the CME get that I'm talking about the large significant CME Gap that I'm talking about between 78k and 80k

that's quite interesting at how the CME Gap is approximately confluent with the 111 day moving average on the P Cycle uh moving average here so this could be a support there is Confluence right over here and I wouldn't be surprised if this moving average continues to climb as long as it continues to climb and represents higher and higher prices 75k 7 6K 77k 78k it really depends when a pullback would occur but I wouldn't be surprised to see the 111 day moving average on the P Cycle become 78k at some point maybe even 79 80k

maybe become confluent with the CM Gap and so if we were to see a price Discovery correction then dropping into the CME Gap that would be quite a 20 25% correction we've seen 25% Corrections in the past we've even seen them in and around the preing period these are all 20 to 25% pullbacks so let's not talk about a pullbacks of 20 25% being uh not being possible because we've just seen these and many of these happen between March and September October so they are very much possible simply because they've already happened in this cycle

and also they tend to happen in price discovery mode and they also tend to happen in every bll market so these sort of pullbacks do occur they are natural it's not about being bearish or bullish I am macro bullish on bitcoin but you know the sun has to go up and then the rain needs to fall down and that's just part and parcel of of being a human and part and parcel of the weather being as it is and part and parcel of Cycles going up and Cycles going down but inevitably Bitcoin is going to

continue climbing up whether or not it fills a CME Gap it can pull back a little bit more history suggests that price Discovery correction is looming large whether it's week s week 8 week 9 or week 10 it doesn't necessarily matter exactly when it's really what matters and what is most important is to be simply prepared for it if that happens tomorrow fine if it happens in a few weeks time that's great if it happens in early January we still get a healthy pullback in bitcoin's uh price action doesn't have to go into the CME

Gap it would be very convenient the CME Gap is probably going to become confluent with the P Cycle moving average support at that point in time so it'll be very interesting to see how they both intertwine and serve as a support but even if we get a shallower pullback that would also be quite satisfactory because that would enable the next parabolic advance in price Discovery for Bitcoin so by no means a bearish event in fact make the most of a any opportunity for a pullback so talking about the pie cycle moving averages I need to

talk to you about why this price covery correction is so important why it needs to happen in just just to make it a more healthy uptrend and also to elongate and extend this bull cycle because if we propagate these moving averages as they are right now then we're going to get a bull market peak in June 2025 and obviously that's sooner much sooner than than what has historically been the case so if we do see a pullback in the future then this moving average is going to start flicking down and we're going to start rather

than seeing convergence between these moving averages we're going to Divergence once again and that's going to kick the can down the road the proverbial can down the road in terms of a bull market Peak maybe to July August September October we need to see a price Discovery correction take place to cool down price action and also cool down the amount of incline that we're starting to see here on the P Cycle moving average which will dictate by propagation which will dictate a sooner bull market so we need to kick the can down the road and

see a bit of a pullback back so that we can see a historically recurring harving cycle and get that top in September or October 2025 that would be the latest that we'd see a bull market top but that's also what history suggests in terms of previous Haring Cycles post Haring parabolic price action tends to Rally 518 days after the Haring or even 550 days after the Haring so if we see history repeat with a 500 day plus bull market Peak after the Haring then that would get us to September or October 2025 and as a

result that's going to be the most that we can expect in terms of how long this bull cycle will take place for so 500 Days plus after the Haring in terms of parabolic upside that's something that's historically happened in the past and as you can see here we're only in month two of the parabolic cycle right over here because we've broken up from this uh accumulation range only last month so we're approximately somewhere around the very beginning of this parabolic upside phase so still so much upside left to enjoy still so much time left to

enjoy in this bull cycle but for this to become a regular harving and traditional Haring cycle we need to see a bit of a pullback and that sort of pullback is going to enable price to really start to Rally fantastically because for it to Rally like this going forward it's going to be quite difficult for price to really stretch it stretch itself self apologies over extend itself to newer and newer highs without a pullback it's going to be that more difficult to continue making new highs so if it pulls back it's going to be much

easier after a pullback for price to Rally higher so that being said that's about it for today's video when it comes to the P Cycle top indicator subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future hope you enjoy this one like this video if you'd like to see more data science metrics and Analysis on bitcoin's price action in the future I'm Rex capital and I'll speak to you in the next one speak to you soon