[Music] I'm venisha rainy and this is Ukraine the latest today amid more drone strikes by Russia targeting Ukraine we get the view from tii on last night's protests against Georgia's Pro Kremlin government we also have a fascinating interview with Estonia for Minister margus tner about Donald Trump and how he could be the Church Hill of our times if he makes the right choices on Ukraine once he Becomes president in January bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with Victory the first duty of my government is security and defense to make
clear our unshakable support of NATO and with our allies towards Ukraine keep stay strong nobody's going to break us we're strong we're ukrainians it's Friday 29th of November 2 years and 285 days since the full scale Invasion began and today I'm Joined by our associate defense editor Dom Nichols in Paris we'll be sharing some insights from a speech this morning by MI6 head Richard Moore we're also very grateful to have maik mikiashvili joining us from tobli Georgia's capital she was at last night's protest against the pro Russian government's sudden decision to suspend talks on joining
the European Union so we'll be digging into the significance of that and what next for Georgia's opposition Movement so lots to get into but let's start with some brief military and geopolitical iCal updates starting with Russian strikes over the past 24 hours have killed at least one civilian in curs or blast and they've injured at least 22 around the country according to Regional authorities overnight we had another massive drone attack 132 drones launched at Ukraine overnight according to Ukraine's Air Force the drones injured at least eight people in the Capital keev and in the southern
Odessa region plus some 13 residential buildings were struck in adessa and a children's medical facility was hit in the den Road District of keev now Ukraine's Air Force said it downed 88 of those 132 drones another 41 were lost and one returned to Russian territory as we've been covering on this podcast all week we've seen a record number of drone attacks this week striking apartment blocks and critical infrastructure on Tuesday Russia sent 188 drones into Ukraine that's an all-time high as we covered earlier this week and then on Thursday Moscow carried out a massive attack
on Ukraine's power grid causing blackouts across the country some parts of Ukraine are actually still without electricity analysts believe Russia is now capable of producing up to 100 attack drones a week and is fitting them with ever more destructive Warheads there's some quite interesting analysis In Australia's ABC about how Russia is using foam decoys vacuum warheads and better navigation systems to help them build on these drone attacks making them larger and more difficult to defend against so we can expect to see lots more of that in the coming weeks and months all of this comes
as Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he would be using oresnik missiles to Target decision-making centers in keev arnik as our listeners will remember is What was used to Target denpro last week that was the one that was initially reported as an ICBM but we now know it's actually a newish type of intermediate range ballistic missile Putin was speaking at the collective security Treaty Organization Summit in aana Kazakhstan that's the the Russian's NATO equivalent he said that the Russian military leadership is currently choosing targets to hit with arnik missiles I quote these could be military
Facilities defense and Industrial Enterprises or decision-making centers in keev he also said that this week's record attacks were a response to Ukraine's use of long-range us-made attacks in his daily address last night Ukrainian President Vladimir zelinski responded by accusing Putin of trying to escalate the war so that incoming US president Donald Trump wouldn't be able to end it or at least would have to accept Russia's terms to do so now Meanwhile on the ground Russia is continuing its assault on Ukraine's East it's launched more than a 100 attacks in the key strategic hubs of poov
and kurakov Russia lost more than 2,000 troops in the past 24 hours that's a record daily High according to Ukraine's military obviously we can't independently verify any of these figures and Battlefield losses are very difficult to estimate but that would surpass the previous high of 1,950 Russian troops recorded by Ukraine earlier in November and then just one final military update over in Russia Ukraine's military struck the Atlas oil dep Depot in the rostov region overnight causing a fire the military said that Atlas was part of the Russia miss the Russian military industrial complex that supply
supplies petroleum products to the Russian army and then one final bit of updates on the geopolitical side of things the Big story today really is Russia's growing ties with North Korea Russ R's defense minister Andre bosov arrived in pongyang this morning for talks with the country's military and political leaders he was greeted by his North Korean cart no Quang chall and members of North Korea's military according to the Russian defense Ministry and he apparently spent today in meetings with military and political leadership figures he since released a statement Saying friendly ties between Russia and North
Korea are actively expanding in all areas including military cooperation obviously these developments come amid deep relations between the two countries we know that North Korea's believed to have sent as many as 10,000 troops to the front lines in kusk the Pariah country is also become moscow's leading supplier of artillery shells and ballistic missiles sign of the significance of the Relationship we saw pu Putin making a very rare State visit to North Korea in June and just one final point on this there was quite an interesting article on The Daily enk yesterday detailing how North Korea
is enforcing really strict secrecy around casualties among its troops fighting in Ukraine or Russia a source within the Korean People's Army 11th Corp told the website that there are now internal protocols to quietly handle Soldier deaths these dictate that Families should receive limited details and the public should be kept entirely in the dark as well worth a read we'll link to that in the show notes of the podcast and then meanwhile one small development in Russia that I believe is worth marking the courts there have sentenced the first person to be convicted for CR for
criticizing the Ukraine war to another for 3 years in jail Alexi gorinov is 63 he's already serving a 7-year sentence handed down in 2022 for wearing a paper badge with a peace sign drawn on it this new sentence was on the charges of justifying terrorism according to the miza Zona website now let's bring in our guests starting with dom who's in Paris at the moment Dom you've been at an MI6 briefing what did you learn well hello visha hello everybody firstly can you hear you okay Venicia yes we can Dom I know you're in a
noisy station in Garden or but we can hear you Right thank you well for anyone interested in a career in journalism I wish I could paint the picture of the glamour right now as I'm crouched next to the bins in gor station so apologies for uh well you like it's not a scratch and sniff Edition but yes also the glamour of a 3:30 a.m. alarm call to get the first Euro star out here but that's enough of all that so Richard Moore the head of secret intelligence service better known as MI6 is out here today
at The British Embassy the British ambassador's residence I'm giving a speech with his opposite number from the dgsc the French external Security Service Nicola learner so this is the first ever onon cordial lecture so we're told this is going to be an annual thing we only really hear from the agency heads once a year for their public on the record speech so I think we might get two now with this Ambassador you're spoiling us with this extra on the Record speech from the head of MI6 this onon cordial lecture the reason I go on about
that so you know it's 120 years since The onton Cordial Britain and France decided we were going to be best Pals from here on out in fact they kept going on about that and Richard Moore said it's no longer The onon Cordial it should be the onon Amic amicable and they mentioned it a few times got lots of ripples of Applause and and laughter and and smiles all around I think it's Going to be the onon pra shra next time we're here by the way they were going on but the point I'm making is that
it's it wasn't so much a an annual speech it was a lecture and it was the first out of the blocks of these kind of things so it's a lot of backs slapping and mutual support so a lot of historical examples I mean Francis would have loved it we went back to martial faul and the first world war and the second world war and the Special Operations executive and all These kind of stuff there weren't any massive news lines from it I should say straight up up front but it's interesting to speak to this chat
and then afterwards we had an off the Record question answer session with him and M Lerner the say his opposite number and then we the Brit journalist just had a small huddle with Richard Moore separately which is all off the Record as well so I can't say anything from there so what can I say from his speech Well I say three things really firstly it was interesting what he didn't say so he didn't say an awful lot about China I will read you there were a few references to it in the world stuff but actually
just specifically on China all he said was we must navigate the rise of an increasingly assertive China which sometimes competes with our interests and whose values often do not align with our own we play our part MI6 keeping lines of communication open with our Chinese counterparts so you might think that's pretty lukewarm given given some of the challenges we've had in the past with China but of course the context there is worth remembering is that we had the G20 meeting just a couple of weeks ago our prime minister K stama was there and he was
well not going as far as to say a sort of resetting relations with China but he was very keen to say look we will what did he say we will compete where we should challenge where We must and confront where we I know what was it where we feel like it or something but anyway it all very diplomatic so unsurprising that another major head of one of the big organs of State the secret intelligence service is not going to be is not going to be too hard on China in this speech today but it was
notable how lukewarm any sort of well there wasn't really any criticism of China there the second thing was the large orange elephant in the room Donald Trump so quite a few references to the British and American intelligence relationship but touching on five eyes not too much because of course France isn't in the five eyes relationship so they're not going to rub their noses in it and they're not going to talk too much about it but he had to say something about about Trump and again not an awful lot but what he said was I worked
successfully with the first Trump Administration to advance our shared Security and look forward to doing so again that's it he's not going to as as everyone else in the sort of British establishment said so far with Donald Trump and the administration about to start in on the 20th of January they will play the cards their dealt when we see what the new Trump Administration looks like and the policy position start to be announced then they'll just deal with it but Richard Mo was clear that for all the as we remember the the sort Of lively
Lively times of trump one and we still had a very working relationship and I think it's it it's you know I'm not picking up from any anyone anywhere in any official capacity that there'd be talk of withholding intelligence or information sharing with with the Americans in a trump to in that relationship certainly in the five eyes but particularly the British American relationship the US is by far by far the The main provider of intelligence there yes Britain is very good in certain areas and and uh we are we are net contributors in probably in things
like hum so human intelligence spying uh MI6 all that kind of stuff but generally overall when you look at signals intelligence and all the other facets that make up an intelligence capability we are the Americans are the big beast in the jungle there so so it would be an extraordinary move to even start Suggesting that that there be any sort of cooling of the intelligence relationship with the US just just as Donald Trump's coming back and then the third thing of course they he majored on Russia and Putin and Ukraine I mean Miss Lerner the
the head of the dgsc he also was talking about this he said he wanted to quote remind those who would doubt or would contest The Binding links between our two countries said France and Great Britain have stood side by side ask Standing side by side in major crisis shaking our planet and he said he called out Ukraine in the Middle East and said because of the values we share so Richard Mo echoed that he talked about a staggeringly reckless campaign of Russian sabotage in Europe he's used those words before or certainly The Reckless campaign maybe
staggering was was a bit was a bit strong in fact sorry I think it was his MI5 equivalent Ken McCullum who said it was a reckless Campaign but they're singing from the same him sheet here he also then talked about really interestingly there was as I said there was quite a lot of historical referencing and Richard Moore went back to the second world war and he was talking about the Special Operations executive that was working or raising resistance forces behind behind the lines primarily in against Nazi Germany but also a little bit in the the
campaign in the far east as well but Mainly in Europe and he referred to the flame was kindled by the men and women of the Special Operations executive famously Richard Mo references famously given the sort of mission order by Churchill never mind your 20page PowerPoint slides and all that kind of rubbish s soe were just given the instructions set Europe a blaze not a bad mission statement set Europe a blaze and then Richard Mo he was referencing that and he said within that framing of The Special Operations executive he said we that's MI6 he said
we cherish our heritage of covert action which we keep alive today in helping Ukraine resist the Russian invasion so of course my ears pick up and go o give us some detail about this covert action and no no we're straight on to something else there absolutely no Det tell whatsoever so it was a bit of it was a very wave Toby thing um but it did make a few other points he talked about a thing That Putin goes on a lot about they like meddling in democracy and Putin likes to point out that well he
tries to portray democracy as a sort of chaotic organization and okay maybe the Brits hav covered ourselves in glory with having 15 prime ministers in a couple of weeks or whatever the maths are at the moment but Richard Moore said Russia should avoid the classic error of the authoritarian state which confuses the splendidly irreverent clash and thunder Of democracy with weakness and irresolution our democracy is our strength continuously bestowing legitimacy on our leaders decisions I quite like that phrase that splendidly irreverent clash and thunder of democracy which does paint it in a nutshell that is
what democracy is it's messy as church WIll said democracy is the worst form of government apart from all the others what else did he say he was talk about how he works arm in arm With dgsc and lots of stuff about here Putin is jeopardizing Russia's future pouring vast sums into his military machine and squandering tens of thousands of lives Russian and now North Korean in his catastrophic conflict he said Putin has put Russia in Hawk to tyan Beijing and pongyang I do not doubt the transactional consequence of that Arrangement and the sucker it brings
to Russia but it is a transaction there is no real trust or respect its roots are Shallow there are limits to the partnership so we've heard similar before as I said I'm not expecting any major news lines out of something like this first lecture and to be honest the annual speech that the Chiefs all give the import bit is that they are on the record for once so we can actually use the talismanic three letters of MI6 and I long ago gave up with the sub editors trying to say sis because and i' always have
to go MI6 so I just now say MI6 but But to give at least correct title but it was all fine they treated us to some nice pastries in the ambassador's house um some nice coffee I wasn't allowed in I got here cuz I good little boy got the first train out of London this morning and had a nice stroll through Paris down to the ambassador's residence I thought rather than get a cab I had a long time so I I thought I'd stroll down there very very pleasant walk I was only propositioned by a
very polite young Lady once and nearly mugged twice so yeah I mean it was nice to be back in Paris quite quite frankly uh got to the ambassador's residence half an hour early and wasn't allowed in I was dispatched around the corner to a little cafe where I had a very nice coffee and a pound of chocolate which I think was freshly baked at some point in the last two weeks it certainly wasn't this morning but no that's me now I've checked in from a usar on the way back I've yet to start typing anything
for the news desk Venicia but if they ask you can tell them I'm I'm furiously bashing the keyboard I'm going to head over to that nice little bar over there I think and get a little Stellar to get the get the the mental juices flowing and uh I'm going to move away from this bin because it's really starting to smell I don't what that is down there is that an apple okay okay before before you do any bin diving head out for your Stella can I just ask one follow-up question what do you think was
the purpose of this speech what was the sort of main message that Richard Moore was trying to get across and just a sort of quick correction that you were right it was Richard Moore who said that Russia was conducting a staggeringly reckless campaign of sabotage I'm just wondering is he trying to Rally his European allies ahead of quite a difficult potential year next year what do you Think he was trying to do well I mean I think the the primary audience for this was Putin he's trying to show that we're absolutely arm in arm I
think used that phrase that's a quote arm inarm with the dgse he's making the point yet again that the Allied support for Ukraine is Resolute and not not going anywhere I mean I think the backdrop here as we've reported on the podcast about the the Russian economy is in real trouble at the moment things really are starting to Bite there so you know Putin's not going to be happy Russia is prevailing at the moment on the battlefield there's no two ways of saying that we've reported it every day but it's coming out at extreme cost
and the lines are barely Shifting the lines on the ground are barely shifting so that so whilst Putin may be winning it's not to suggest that he is close to winning the war so I think this is just another message today from a major British official to say that the Resolve of those opposed to Putin in the International Community and those resoled to supporting Ukraine is absolutely Rock Solid and this comes on the back of the messages we heard at the G20 and elsewhere and of course there's going to be some positioning of course ahead
of Donald Trump is inauguration next month or in January there's no two ways that is the international context at the moment of course but yeah put it the other way if he hadn't if he hadn't Made this speech slash lecture would Putin have thought oh the international opposition to me is crumbling yeah probably not but it doesn't hurt I mean so rare to get these guys on the record so Ken McCallum the head of MI5 and Keith Butler the head of gchu they make one public speech a year and that's it so it's very very
rare to actually get them on the record so whilst I said there's no newsline the fact that they are doing this and again the onon cordal Is not going to come as a shock to anyone has been around for 120 years but these things don't happen by accident there's a lot of diplomatic activity that goes in the background of of making these things happen and that won't go unnoticed by Putin and the Russian machine great thank you so much Don we'll let you crack on with the rest of your reporting thanks for tuning in from
Paris thank you see you next week I'm gonna bring in our other guest now who's Been waiting patiently in tii MAA mikash and I hope I've pronounced that correctly is a Georgian researcher and political activ AC IST she is the Coalition for change Alliance representative from the drawer party and also its foreign secretary she's also a university lecturer now quick backgrounder on why we're talking about Georgia today on this podcast last night there were violent clashes after Georgia's Special Forces violently Dispersed a protest in central toi over the ruling Georgian dreams party decision to suspend
talks on joining the European Union until 2028 that announcement came just a few hours after the European Parliament adopted a binding resolution which rejected the results of last month's parliamentary elections we've covered that on this podcast we know that controversially handed Victory to the Georgian Dream party the resolution said That there were significant irregularities and called for new elections within a year and also for sanctions to be imposed on the Georgian Dream prime minister and some other top party officials Georgian Dream as our listeners will know very well is considered by its critics to be
Pro Russian and also trying to steer the country away from Europe and towards Moscow that's despite the fact that opinion s show about 80% of Georgians Support EU membership an ambition that's also reflected in the country's Constitution so Mar let me bring you in finally you were there at the protest last night what happened what did you see hello vanisha I'm very pleased to have the opportunity to speak on the Ukraine the latest and thank you very much yes so yesterday when the decision of the government or to be more correct of one person this
Russian made oligarch P isi who is the main guy behind Everything and the government is simply his uh puppets that's it and now all of them are illegitimate and unconstitutional too so they made the decision to hold Georgia's ession process supposedly until 2028 but this essentially means forever because of course they're not going to say in 2028 that oh yeah okay so let's proceed with European integration now because European integration is inherently against their GP on power they cannot Allow these uh reforms of Judiciary of electoral system to go through because otherwise they would be
simply losing the power so they are now arguing on a technicality that they are not suspending European integration but it is just a matter of time because until there is war in Ukraine EU makes the accession talks as a blackmail to drag Georgia into war with Russia as a second front to Ukraine so I was there at night the atmosphere was extremely tense People were extremely angry I do not remember such tense atmosphere maybe only in May if you were having a look at this Russian law or foreign agent law protests only a couple of
days maybe in May but even the Georgian Dream selected public defender who usually justifies georgean dream actions said yesterday that the demonstration was peaceful and that the force used against them was excessive and unjustified so everyone could see it coming because the build up Of the security forces was happening for hours and the people were extremely tense too extremely angry however everyone agrees that this time they were extremely violent so they would like when they see a journalist that just strike him down just because they're a journalist they wouldn't allow anyone to film arrests they
wouldn't allow people to film arrests with their phones or cameras of the televisions they physically attacked Girls and women and some people have their noses broken and they Al just caught people and sprayed the pepper spray in their eyes like as a personto person contact this special forces and so on and well I'm not even talking about so beating and dragging people on the ground and 10 10 policemen beating one person what is also very noteworthy is that they have some very powerful water Canon machines by the way the government boasted even before elections That
they they had already purchased new water Canon machines and we should have known it was a hint in in hindsight it was a hint that the elections would be stolen so it has the water flow that goes very long distance but they mix this water with pepper spray and this is disastrous because water and pepper spray are uh very painful combination together you cannot wash down spray with a water it is against recommendations so they are making everything as toxic and As violent as as possible in the morning when there were only very few protesters
left and they were already like brutally dispersed the wave of assault and only two or three people were Sheltering in a pharmacy they actually went after them into a pharmacy and assaulted them inside the pharmacy and my friend was there she was one of them in inside their shop and she said that if not for a media camera that was nearby and who managed to take a footage of what was Happening inside from outside then they probably would have killed them with Bea thanks Ma I'm I'm interested that thousands of people turned out last night
I know earlier this week there was a protest against last month's election but it was quite muted right not many people turned out why did so few people turn out to that protest yes that is a very good question actually so I think it's a psychological thing psychological special operation of Russia together With electoral special operation of course well I do not know whether in spring when they tabled this foreign agents law that we called Russian law they actually inherently thought to Tire us out or whether they simply went along with the public Outburst of
protest and rage and simply let us go by back in spring in hope that we in anticipation for the elections would just go home with the feeling that yes we can do we can win these elections and once they Would steal elections then they would for forc us into Despair and depression and because that is what the oligarch behind everything PID Ian actually said in April that he would just Tire us out for Autumn and essentially that is what happened now I don't know if that was their plan a or they went along with it
as a plan B once the protests were really big but eventually their plan by the election time was yes the fact that it would be such a shock for people to Have the election stolen that it will require some time until people process the shock and mobilize and gain energy for another round because after the elections were stolen people finally fully realize that there is no getting rid of them with elections and the realization of that means a lot it needs a big psychological uh preparation on an individual and a collective level to get rid
of the government without elections Basically right so I think that is what the Georg Georgian Society was processing in the month after the elections but it is important that there were still some and in some ways quite successful tactical episodes of resistance still and now this rejection of the EU bid comes off as the how to say is the trigger be because maybe the numbers were not that high protesting in November but the stealing of Elections was a bomb and the next topic that would Come in would serve as the trigger to the already existing
bomb of frustration over having had this election stolen so I think that is what is happening now I'm interested to hear what you make of the Ukrainian foreign Minister's comments this morning Dimitri CA said that the situation in Georgia he thinks is a mirror image of what Ukraine was going through in November 2013 at the time president Victor Yankovich had announced he wouldn't sign the EU Association agreement and it sparked Nationwide protests of course we all know what's happened since I'm wondering if you agree with that assessment overall in the big geopolitical picture yes I
agree with it definitely uh however on a local level uh there are differences there are some things that put Georgia in an even more disadvantaged position than ukrainians in 2013 but there are some things that are Potentially aiding Georgians more than ukrainians in 2013 for example I think the Kremlin has learned a lot and also because of the specifity of Georgian society that everyone is so overwhelmingly Pro Western which in 2013 was not that much of a case in Ukraine it was more split than the Georgian Society is this government had to be a troyan
horse I I wish they had been more clear about their in itions but it was their mask and also illusion of security That we had in our society that Georgia can never be dragged back into the Russian orbit because we are so Pro Western that made them even more covert and even more dangerous and they did not have as much power in Ukraine as these guys have here because there were other oligarchs in Ukraine he didn't have one party majority and to totalitarian grip over the state and material resources in Georgia that is the case
one man has everything from Material resources to Every single official in the country from some Village head to the government and everything so Georgia is much more monolithic in every sense which is a disaster right now however and the government is much more in some ways smart and covered and by the way before yesterday's Crackdown the entire month that we had this election fraud protest the police was also being very smart they were not assaulting they were trying to Simply exhaust us and I was Nervous how smart they were being and that is also what
they learned from Ukraine they learned from Ukraine not to make Hasty steps however I don't know maybe eventually with the yesterday's decision to holdt the us session they're still being dumb in their smartness as well let's see hopefully that's the case however on the plus side for Georgians is that I don't know maybe yanukovich assumed that he could crush half of the country with bullets because he had the Other half that's what he thought that's what he thought and that's what emboldened him to put deploy snipers and so on in Georgia uh Never Say Never
because now we're going through things we didn't think we would be going through necessarily although it was plausible uh violence does send shock waves so I do not think they have uh mandate in any sense to shoot people they are even shying away from shooting rubber rubber bullets they are going Excessive on everything else but whatever is associated with blood they try not to fully piss off whoever they still have support so there can be some restrictions on excess of force which might not have been there in Ukraine and hopefully this is the case hopefully
and then just one final question before we wrap up what next for Georgia's opposition movement I mean do you still feel hopeful yes certainly well Success Is Not Guaranteed of course but this is essentially War this is a National Liberation struggle I think we do have more than sufficient grounds for optimism given that we do have the president even if for a month still we do have opposition yes of course it's not like one monolithic organization but the opposition is still United and from yesterday on even more the president outright said I'm only with you
if you Are fully United and coordinated so that's it and the public at large is also against the government well the Army will I I do not think the Army will include themselves in any way but at least they cannot deploy them against us because the Army does not support them at least we are an you candidate country I suppose it comes with some things like for example the Western assessment has to be harsh so with a internal non-cooperation with the regime with External non-recognition of the elections not shaking hands with GD and with protests
it is still possible that the regime cracks and now is the brief opportunity as I said to force them into fully unmasking and they have have done so basically until they can afford it now they will want to double down extremely probably in the nearest days and weeks to scare us but it is possible that this is their last fume they will double down extremely because if we do Not get scared of this until it gets better it gets worse episode then they know that they might start cracking hopefully that is the case and I'm
sure that people will not give up and hopefully we are right in assessment that they're not still in the position to withstand uh full public confrontation coming up an interview with estonia's foreign minister about Donald Trump don't go Away welcome back now earlier this week our associate defense editor Dom Nichols interviewed estonia's foreign minister margus tner about how Donald Trump could change the conflict in Ukraine here's their ation well Mr sugar Minister of Foreign Affairs in Estonia thank you so much for spending some time with Ukraine the latest today um if I could start please
on the subject of Ukraine I got back last night with a with a team here from From a few days in ke and HEV um I note today that Russian foreign intelligence service director Sergey nishin he's he was speaking yesterday he said that Russia is open to negotiations but that Russia categorically rejects any free eing of the current front line or the creation of a de demilitarized zone what's your response to his words uh let me translate they say directly that they are not interested about any kind of just and longlasting Peace negotiations so it
has been already like this two and a half years and it will continue and we need to understand that uh this kind of U you know the the the willingness to find and start any kind of uh negotiations or or talks it needs that Putin will change the course will change the goal but he has not changed it at all he's pushing more heavily than ever before and uh and uh these kind of different calls or different opportunities to find that Let's let's let's start to talking he's in a strong position now and this is
a weak position and we cannot allow it to happen so we need to focus on how can we support Ukraine to fight back and daily base in the meaning uh they're fighting heavily and situation is really really not very very optimistic in the meaning but they are fighting and they have a will for that and our duty is to support now after the The Budapest memorandum and the Minsk one and two agreements do You think this current Russian leadership can ever be trusted to negotiate anything in good faith with Russia and with Putin is the
rule that you can negotiate from the strong position and also uh if you're making any compromise is it will be the new red line for them and they're pushing heavily so we have experienced that in 1994 when we negotiated the Russian troops out from Estonia even we gain our Independence in 1991 the troops were here and uh thanks for our allies and US strong positions as well and of course the leadership was different at the time in Russia we were happy that the troops actually withdrew when they went out from Estonia and we became the
name member of NATO and EU though uh we need to have a strong position and and I do hope as well that uh Trump will understand that that he hasn't this great opportunity to be a strong leader And I've even even wrote some articles about the uh I compare the situation with 1938 before the Munich meeting when uh you know chamberline went back and said that now the peace will come it was a weak position about the white paper but up to this time we need to just support Ukraine they need to fight back and
we have enough resources for that and also I'm happy that President Biden has uh taking town and all the others as well Uh the restrictions of using the the long range missiles we already see that of course it makes Putin more nervous and he's playing without fears about escalation but uh there is nothing new I don't believe that Putin will use any kind of nuclear attack because then military this is nonsense but also politically he's going to cross all the red lines I think as well with these uh countries who are like supporting him though
we need to focus we need to focus And and support Ukraine to fight and we need to invest more to our defense now you talk about European allies there and you mentioned Donald Trump I'll come on to him a bit later if I may but but in terms of European allies it is very early days in any talk of of negotiations and ceas far what have you and I agree I think we quite a long way away from from that but in the emerging debate do you notice any consensus among European allies regarding any any
Ceasefire or do you think there are already some dissenting voices and at what point just having good honest open discussions and ideas become dissenting voices happily I don't see these kind of like initiatives to to to ask to ceasefire and start negotiations we have you know the the chancellor Schultz phone call I think that it was tactical mistake but actually what the chances said to Putin was exactly the position that European union and European Countries have though uh and it's a good thing that we are united in the position but also I think that the
reason is of course to support Ukraine but the reason is that uh the most European countries and Nations uh finally understands that Russia is a threat to us as well so it's not only the problem uh of Ukraine it's a problem for us as well in in in perspective and and also I think that Putin has made a mistake in the meaning of of bringing the North Korean troops In and also the red flags they have risen as well in in us because of that because North Korean has been like the I don't know the
enemy or the most not liked country in the in the world already decades for us politicians both parties and the second uh thing about that is that Putin because of uh bringing the North Korean troops to Europe very close to Nato borders change the understanding as well about this this this aggression it is not only any More aggression against Ukraine from Russia but it's already Global it's not only as well the the North Korean troops there but this is a fact that actually uh all this kind of like evil part of the world is now
in this conflict and it it will change I think the position and maybe this is a sign as well that Putin is running out of res resources in the meaning that uh he's dependent on North Korea already not only about troops but also maybe like economically and you Know the ammonition and many other aspects though the the situation is more complicated but I see as well that there are many opportunities uh to keep going and to find finally a long-lasting peace and we can have this strong position all together now you mentioned you talk about
an evil part of the world and if I May would that include Russia Iran North Korea possibly the more belligerent side of the of Chinese Behavior I mean evil is a strong word I don't want to lump China in there immediately but when it comes to supporting Russia in this war and tacid agreement for North Korea I think if we sort of put those together do you think then that there is an opportunity here for Donald Trump for example to take a much greater interest he's sort of cool on the idea of Ukraine but now
that these threats are so much closer than they were in his first term in office do you think he could see himself as the as the global Superman he Could break this this as you say the evil part of the world do you think this will draw him in closer or he will still see these as as different threats let's see how he he sees this what will be the plan our prime minister had a call yesterday with President Trump elected also many other leaders and uh the information what we have is that actually Trump
is listening carefully about the proposals about the arguments uh why we are in such a Position to support Ukraine what is our views uh but I'm I'm totally agreeing that uh Trump is in a strong position uh first he has a very strong mandate from elections also he has as a senate and Congress at the moment uh in the meaning of the majority control and the second thing I think that uh the parallel can be done with Chamberland Churchill story of course times are different but we have the time 1938 before the Munich and the
situation is different in The meaning of us position globally us is stronger than they were at this time the conflict is more Global uh as it was at the moment in 1938 and Trump have an opportunity as well to become the Churchill of our times in a meaning and uh like the broad fact is that the world is more divided than ever before war between non-democratic countries and dictatorships and democracies and this fight now which Ukraine has it's not only about their own territory and Freedom of course but it's about as well our rule of
law and way of living and that's why I'm totally agreeing with you that uh that Trump hasn't this opportunity to have a strong position and our experience as well has been from the past when Trump was first time president that he likes to have a strong position to negotiate and all these opportunities are there and of course during his first tenure we saw NATO spending all the Individual member countries spending on defense go up which almost certainly wouldn't have happened had Donald Trump not been not been the president so do you think him coming back
he's the right man at the right time for this problem it's not me to say right man but he's president elected he has a full mandate from the democratical country as us is though uh we are fulfilling our plans we made already years ago we invest heavily more to our defense Estonia is doing 3.4% of GDP and on top of that we have a special program for the next four years to invest heavily to our long range and deep strike capabilities to fulfill actually the NATO Regional defense plans which we adopted last year in vus
though uh we work with presidents uh who are there in office uh and we we have a very solid arguments about our support to Ukraine and Regional security and also the membership of NATO to Ukraine because we do believe that the only Working security guarantee is NATO actually in our region because the neutralities uh or the so-called gray zones in the neighboring countries of Russia it's just a green light for Putin it has been Georgia 2008 it started as well with Ukraine 2014 or already and any kind of agreements as we had this Minsk one
and Minsk 2 it was just you know the the the break to prepare for Putin at the next level aggression so we need to change the goal of Putin it's Not the only question question about supporting Ukraine but it's a question about our own security these arguments are there and I think that we have enough resources actually to do it yes and and talking about resources I still have my copy of Ukraine's discussion paper setting transatlantic defense up for Success a military strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's defeat I thought it was a a very
good piece of Work and it one of the things it it highlighted it said that if NATO countries committed 0.25% of GDP towards Ukraine annually that would that would raise 120 billion Euro and it was described as you very affordable and that would go a long way certainly if that was committed to for over sort of four years so you can plan on it and you can build factories and facilities and infrastructure then that that would go a long way to help Ukraine Succeed why did this paper get such a lukewarm response I've not heard
it referred to anywhere else only when I talk with Estonian officials does this come up or that idea of the 0.25% be understood remembered acknowledged why why the lukewarm response to your paper actually I don't agree with you because paper our our paper our plan and however we call it it gain a lots of interest and actually many countries follow that as well and It was under this discussion amongst the NATO members as well how many have signed up to the 0.25% I think that pretty many countries I know that all the baltics and Finland
and I think Sweden Denmark uh but I don't have a list of that so we have a signed a bilateral agreement with Ukraine for the next four years about 0.25% of GDP annually military support and many other they did the same so but you're right if all we do the same Things there there won't be a problem with resources but yes unfortunately not all uh have done it uh so I do hope that it will come because uh just to to you know to have this this philosophical thought that we would have given all with
what we have gave already to Ukraine within the first year of the war so the war was already finished with the victory of Ukraine and Russia would have put and pushed back to Russia so the longer this aggression is go going the More expensive it it will be for us as well of course for ukrainians who are losing their best sons and territories but but also we need to understand that the most efficient and also the cheapest way to finish this aggression is actually to invest to to to to support Ukraine I mean it does
seem to be the case that the further north and the further east you go through Europe the NATO members are much more cleared about the threat and much more prepared to Stump up the political support and the money in your answer there I note the UK France Germany Italy have not signed up to 0.25% of GDP and you've recently hosted Gabrielle slans bergus lithuania's foreign minister I think that was yesterday but he thanked you for what he said was another chance to strengthen our bonds and our region security we agree on the importance of stepping
up preparedness to deal with hybrid attacks and of sticking together In these turbulent times he was responding to your comments that when Estonia and Lithuania talk you say we don't need a long warm-up because we speak with one voice on supporting Ukraine and how to stop Russia from threatening Europe's security so you you may speak with one voice but who is listening if the UK France Germany Italy the the broadest shoulders are not prepared to step up to some of these arguments we are not tiring of speaking And talking about that but also we are
executing so Estonia has given to Ukraine approximately like 3.4% of GDP support and per capita I think we are the leader in the world and we are not proud of that in a meaning that you yes we are first but everybody everyone should do it I cannot decide other the government's decisions I'm the foreign minister of Estonia but it is obvious that if you're the neighboring country of Russia if you have an history and Your your people all our families we are remembering how does it look like if you have no Freedom if you're losing
1 of our population with deportations and killings and and as a refugees though exactly the same things are happening in Ukraine uh we are solidar with them but at the same time we understand as well that it may come to Europe as well we need to be prepared so for us this is existential question but also I think that UK people should understand that UK Troops are here they are frame uh country uh for the NATO enhance forign present uh Mission here and they ready to go within a first second to fight together with our
troops of course US troops we have here many other countries as well though we are not standing and talking only about us and Ukraine but we are talking about Europe we're talking about NATO we are talking about European Union though we need to keep going to explain that but I see as well the big Change if you compare the situation like three years ago in Europe I think that uh not nobody but too many countries they didn't take this threat from Russia like seriously I think that there is no country now in Europe who is
not taking it seriously the question is how far you are from the border and then what is your position in the meaning of collecting defense and and sharing the burden so this is another other argument but I want to add as well GDP is the Honest figure I've been told many times that as well that okay you can put like 3.4% of GDP or 5% because you are the small country you need to do it but GDP is an honest figure and it is exactly described the burden or the or the weight to what is
in our society's shoulders so so this is this is a equal thing and I do hope that this understanding is coming uh more and quicker to All Nations uh in Europe at least than it will be too late Very diplomatic language there I do like the Diplomatic language you use I'll talk about the ICC in a moment if I may but just looking at at Europe and the defense needed here former Lithuanian prime minister and now commissioner designate for defense and space in the European Parliament Andreas kilus is working with the eu's high representative for
foreign affairs K CIS your your former prime minister they're preparing a paper on European Defense Now before looking at what you suggest any conclusions might be from that paper what questions do you think it should be answering the first thing is that we need to understand that NATO is the organization which is guaranteeing militarily uh European security and we have always in the position that there is no way effective way to create the parallel systems because we have been investing to Nato we have plans we have exercises we have all the system Article 5 four
ready to go but what the Europe must do is to invest heavily more to defense industry to uh invest heavily more to capabilities and uh what I do hope from this paper and also with political decisions is to to share the burden you know I we have been talking about the defense ponds of Europe because even if Estonia laia Lithuania is putting and also Poland is putting like four five 6% it's not good enough for Europe and also I do hope that uh The relations with UK and European Union are we're going to be more
close because UK has a great role here as well to invest more and to take the leadership position about that and and to to cooporate though uh I think that the main question is about funding to find the money to invest heavily more all together as European Union to find the cooperation with u us and also UK of course and as well to uh sign actually the agreements or or contracts with the Defense industry for a long term because defense industry is not uh following we can make political decisions but we need to have money
and also we have to have a longterm agreements what kind of Defense capabilities we need so this is all together and I hope that this new European Union commission has an mandate as well to to act because I think that the European Parliament elections if you see the the structure of their political position so the parliament position is To support it I've been looking well at the the terms for the for the paper and you talk about cooperation with the US and and defense sovereignty the white paper is expected to predominantly address defense sector capability
industrial competitiveness investment and so on but how does Europe keep the US close should Europe be buying more US kit in which case the European Defense industrial base may may suffer or as Donald Trump has hinted should Europe take on more responsibility for its own security and build up its own defense industrial Base by possibly cutting out some of the big us firms which might drive the US away where where do you see the the balance between those two tensions in my experience as well as Former Defense Minister is that uh there won't be in
real life the situation that you're doing one or the other this is all mixed in a meaning there are some Systems and the only only production capabilities are in us as well politically it would be great if we are connected in the meaning economically and we are more connected uh with us economically than ever before not only about the defense industry I think that European countries are maybe the biggest partner in the meaning of creating jobs uh in US as well so we are very much connected this transatlantic Pond is not only about the defense
and security it's It's economical cooperation as well but if we add money the European taxpayers money so of course it must go as well to our defense Industries our economies as well but this uh practical cooperation about defense industry and also the political cooperation is crucial as well so it will be a mix anyways uh I I agree it will be a mix but but in something like the F35 program that's now getting so so big attack Aviation Poland's going to be the biggest non us user of Apache I think they're going to they're going
to get 89 airframes I mean it comes a point where these programs are so big that you you either have to be a part of it or you you just you just don't have have access to all the the data connections so I do accept that it's all a balance but Loy Martin are not going to be happy if you decide to go elsewhere for some systems and and try and say well it's all it's all going to be a balance I mean they are they do Have a a habit of getting their own way
don't they you know uh I'm more practical person because uh the case is not to how to uh pump up the defense industry of Europe the case is how to get as quick as possible the real capabilities and this is exactly what Estonia is doing we are buying them from us from from Europe uh from South Korea though we need really these capabilities uh not as as a huge project for the like 30 years in the future we need them now So that must be a goal uh if we have money then how can we
work together with the European Defense industry also I see in European union inside as well that there are like different interests and protectionism is coming more and more to invest only for your own defense industry so we need to understand that this problem what we are preparing it's a real problem so we need to prepare for that it's not just like the case as sometimes we say uh about The common agricultural policy in Europe that uh it's like the living its own life we we we we put like more than 60% of our European Union
budget to different kind of benefits and finally we forgot actually what what was the common policy of that so the main goal is to create these capabilities as quick as possible to have money instruments for that and also to have agreements and Deals and also transatlantic bond is is very practical as well and political About this cooperation um if I could just head a little a little south of way you are now I believe I'm guessing you're in talion I'm in Talan yeah you're in talion so if we can go last week lvia hosted the
12th meeting regarding the establishment of a special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine 39 countries were represented and at the end of that meeting members signed the Vienna R statement which reaffirms their Commitment to working towards establishing such a tribunal why is it taken 12 meetings to get this far actually what we are talking about we are talking about accountability and we are talking about the aggression crimes and aggression crimes are leadership crimes and uh we finished the the the only War we finished in the proper ways about accountability was actually the second
world war and we have this nurburg special tribunal Unfortunately we have no consensus about that to form it again about uh Putin and and all the others so uh we are trying to convince our partners more widely that it is it must be useful because uh if if our listeners don't know that the leaders they have immunity about the aggression crimes right now and how can we explain that so it takes time there is no breakthrough and I think that situation is even more complicated because we are more divided than than Maybe even like two
years ago uh in United Nations we may have an opportunity to use the the Council of Europe for that uh to move for forward but yeah the situation is complicated about the accountability I'm I'm agreeing that so just finally then a lot of our listeners are very concerned they get in touch with this every day they are very nervous about the threat of nuclear war they they see what's happening and we say don't allow Putin To own the narrative here he wants us to be scared but but these are very big issues and would have
enormous consequences what do you say to people listening to this podcast who are very worried about the possibility of an outbreak of nuclear war I'm saying very clearly our position is that we don't believe that Putin will use the nuclear weapon uh Putin is using uh our fears uh Putin is using uh the TR of escalation and very successfully unfortunately Though uh he has been telling already I don't know two and a half years that he will escalate if we're giving tanks and long range missiles and and and so on so on and he needs
to play with that but actually we must be sure and we must be clear as well that we need to have very strong position and no fear so militarily this is nonsense for Putin to use nuclear weapon and politically he will lose even these supporters who are supporting him now because then these Red lines are crossed totally and I think that Putin is pragmatical but till we are letting him to play with our fears so he's using this position so what I'm telling our listeners now that don't be afraid in the meaning and uh we
just need to act if we are in Weak position and Putin would like to do whatever though we let them him to do but we need to be in a strong position Mr sna Minister of Foreign Affairs for the country of Estonia thank you so much For talking to Ukraine the latest Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the telegraph created by David NS to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news analysis and dispatches from the ground please subscribe to the telegraph you can get your first 3 months
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