ORDER FLOW THURSDAYS - TRADING CRYPTO AND FUTURES DURING THE NEW YORK OPEN LIVE

Foreign [Music] [Music] [Music] foreign [Music] foreign [Music] [Music] [Music] foreign [Music] [Music] [Music] foreign [Music] [Music] thank you [Music] foreign [Music] [Music] [Music] What's up guys good morning happy Thursday turn the music off give everyone a second get the chat going where's the chat is this a rave party no it's my attempt to find decent music that's uh copyright free so get in trouble just give me a quick sound check and uh we'll get started it's just going to be mostly a ideally a trading stream So uh be looking for some opportunities right now the

NQ and just the NQ so far looks like it's back above where Powell gave his testimony again just quick sound check loud and clear all right uh I will minimize the chat for now give me one sec make sure everything is Good minimize the chat okay what's up what's going on thank you for tuning in uh you know as a description says I'm streaming a little bit earlier it's right after the open I haven't really found my bearings yet I had a really early morning um up with uh my little one but uh we'll look

for opportunities during the stream Ideally take some trades take some questions and yeah run it for hopefully just over an hour maybe a little bit more maybe a little less we'll see I have a couple different screens set up um I have uh the main screen that you're looking at right now so just trading View and then I have um Sierra chart set up I have I have my whole setup changed just for the stream so it might be a little tough To get used to moved a bunch of things around but I think this

would be a good format because I always say I want to do this I want to uh integrate more trading into the stream sorry I have an itchy elbow right now it's where I just had my new ink done um but it's tough the four it's it's difficult to trade while you're streaming while you're looking at a chat While things are going on in the market uh I like the period of 8 30 to to the open so to 9 30 and truly there after like the half hour after to trade um I often stream

during you know lunch time because I don't know it's easy to accommodate that the market takes a little bit of a breather at least in my opinion that's not what I'm going to be as active uh but I do want to do this I think it'll benefit you guys if you're not subscribed if you're not uh part of The channel hit the Subscribe button hit the like button um so as I mentioned I have a Sierra chart a little change around so we have the you're looking at the end queue right now so I just

want to make sure that this is in the actual windows so I have a TPO the daily I don't really look at um I have a one to two hour contacts chart I have a footprint chart composite profile this is what I'll make my Composites on and then they'll just be placed across the other charts uh and then we have our this is a 350 trade Candlestick chart I'll switch between this and either the 350 trade Candlestick chart or the 1000 trade Candlestick chart um instead of using a time-based chart so these are based on

trade so it's based on actual activity in the market on this chart I have my cvd I have a difference between buyers and sellers Delta and then you know this is basically what makes the CBD and then I have a volume profile v-wop one standard deviation band and then just some levels marked off you got your Doms to the right so I have uh the es and then we have the NQ and I have hotkeys set up so I can very quickly one switch between the screens and then two I can go ahead and re-center

these Doms so a lot of times one of the benefits of using Doms especially if you're looking at Not just one product so if you're looking at multiple products you can see how they're pushing in relation to each other so I could see you know how the es is pushing in relation to the NQ whether or not the you know it's the es is actually doing any lifting or the NQ is just lifting on its own and we'll see you know whether the markets are moving in tandem it's not like it's going to be the

most actionable looking at just the NQ and the ES A lot of times you'll see people have Doms of multiple products across multiple markets next to each other so they might have you know treasuries mixed with Equity indices and then they might have some other Commodities as well maybe they have crude oil or maybe they have gold and then you see the sort of inter-market relationships and um again where the activity is occurring and weather activity in one market is Leading to activity uh in other markets that might normally be correlated whether it's inversely correlated

or positively correlated okay uh so that screen is set up sorry this elbow is bugging me um and then I have um EXO set up so I have the XO desktop so I have buy bit set up so in case in the event of any all trades uh right now I am I took some profit on my alt my ALT shorts I have this sub account set up so again any trades pop Up we'll go ahead and shoot over there and uh and take some I loaded this account with like I think 20 grand um

I took a scalp last night so I think it's probably up to like 20 400 or something like that you could actually see so one sec I think we just do this yeah 20 184 excuse me um so as you guys know I am the stream is powered by by Bit by Bit is where I do my trading the link is below so Non-kyc spot perp they also have options the option Market obviously needs to thicken up a little bit but I think that as the market Grows Right obviously we're in sort of the doldrums

right now but as the market grows these will become more popular instruments there's a lot of different ways to express yourself in the options Market compared to you know just Delta one products like um you know Futures and and spot uh so check out the link it's trade Buybit.com that link obviously is connected to my referral link you guys know how that goes I appreciate your support um and yeah I think that is pretty much it as a reminder none of what I say is financial advice strictly for entertainment purposes only I do have um

the chat somewhere so let me find the chat you guys someone had a question about uh dydx so I will get into that Let me see where the chat is make sure that okay maybe this is due to YouTube's bitrate but does that Dom lag no might be might be YouTube or you know what it might be a lot of things going on I might be having a lot of um might be excuse me I can't don't even words right now um I might have to turn down the uh Refresh on and I was messing

with that yesterday Because I have a lot of things open right now um all right so yeah a little bit of a squeeze today so a little bit of a squeeze we had employment data come in um I guess I'll just do a quick recap of of my thoughts I was long last night so I actually slept on a position it's quite uncanny it's not usual for me it's not something that I usually do this entire bear Market one of the ways that I was able to escape most of the pain was that I really

didn't have any overnight position and I kept most of my positioning um intraday uh yeah I ended up missing out on some significant swings maybe that other people were willing to hold on to but I would just rather go to sleep without that risk without any kind of line items and it worked out because I wasn't exposed to a lot of the Catastrophic events we had in the market I wasn't obviously exposed to those because I don't lean too far out when it comes to taking risks period um but either way I I slept on

a position last night and ended up getting rid of it this morning I got rid of it right before the pop whatever it's not really a pop um but my reasoning was if you look at if we just looked at BTC leading up to Where I ended up dumping my position um there's a couple things so perps are selling so we're seeing a good amount of selling in the perp Market but and this is at this [ __ ] elbow is going to bother me I need to moisturize it or something um there was a

good amount of selling in an area where you'd normally expect it right where people you would you would expect people to get trapped offside and That is this major swing low going back to uh you know the second week of February so this is kind of like one of those major contextual levels we're going to look towards to see that kind of behavior occur you know to see someone get caught offside ideally this will either violently Spike and reclaim or we see this develop over time so we didn't get a violence bike and reclaim we

didn't we don't really have development over time yet so normally a Turn after a move down like this is going to be you know you're going to get a decent amount of time at the low before a move actually occurs and and then you'll start to see build up in absorption and you might see a build up in open interest along with that because you have positioning that's that's accumulating you have risk that's being put on on the presumption that's going to continue one side's offsides you know And you get a larger squeeze we didn't

stab the low so it's something that I often wait for it doesn't mean that it's always rewarded there's times when the Market's looking all at the same area to get to get swiped and it doesn't get swiped and a lot of that gets front ran I think in this environment we're going to see lows taken out I think we're moving lower period um but this is an area where potentially you could get shorts trapped offside we Do have a significant amount of OI build up um it does look like though so even though there's a

significant amount of perp selling brief period of uh backwardation negative funding you know the funding is just it's a derivative of that Delta between the spot price and the perp so it's on us to figure out why that's occurring in this case my assumption is that it's Occurring because there's actually a good amount of spot that's being sold I don't know specifically how much spot is being unloaded by you know or how much spot is being unloaded um by some of the larger counterparties in the space right now that are experiencing stress I don't know

what extent of that is but I do know that you know for example Voyager is one of them so I think Voyager has like this is a wide window so excuse me but maybe 150 Million to 250 million worth of eats to get rid of uh last I checked that flow is being routed through coinbase so if there's that significant of a spot seller in the market I mean do I want to get fancy and fade a setup that's just based on derivative positioning no because you know it could continue to be that the spot

Market is going to be selling off Harder Than You Know The perp Market and uh And and until that abates I don't really want to step in the way of that it just seems like you know that's a good amount of size and and who am I to who am I to try to step in front of that I'd rather just see that that flows flushed out I'd rather see that you know we're at a low like this we're at a significant level like this and at least like funding begins to flatten out at least

you know our um I'll just give you an example real Quick so this is just my looking across at multiple markets but if I just look at BTC um and a possible trade is setting up the NQ right now so we'll get to that in a second uh these are just this is just Bitcoin so across multiple markets so across multiple venues you know they all kind of trade like different instruments um here's coinbase here is uh uh buy bit here is um binance and here is uh binance spot So I should say binance per

Finance spot um wait why is that set up so Bitcoin tether that's okay X excuse me um so earlier before I done my positioning um perps were actually Trading above spot right into that move so again it just looks like you know it doesn't exactly look healthy right now I don't feel too bad about getting rid of my position for this small bounce it just looks like there's a significant Amount of spot selling that's taking place um all right so I think that that's pretty clear I don't want to get too much into talking during

these streams because I do want to to take some trades as I mentioned just a second ago we'll go back to uh to this setup um so the NQ right now is right at so we actually have a little bit No um the NQ is right out what I would say is a pretty significant level so I mentioned this during the last stream it's at Powell's testimony now the es isn't there um so it's not like the es I think I don't think the es has reclaimed that level so just go real quick before I

take a trade to early no this is all the way back here Um so Powell's testimony of Congress you know caused a very significant move down I think this is probably overextended right now so uh I'm just looking on the other screen sorry it is going to be kind of difficult but I want to go ahead and start scaling into uh a short here if I could get filled I already got eight points on the day but it's not like that's massive um We had a good pop on jobs data the markets come back to

that pivotal point where Powell started talking it looks like the es is not really doing much work at all and it's mostly the enqueue that's overthrown uh we tag the point of control of that down day I'm looking at a different screen right now this is difficult to match but we'll get it done um And now we have flow beginning to shift so we're looking at CBD right now strong move up and then really momentum dying I just want to make sure it stays in the window momentum dying on this next move up so you

can see that you have a high for that high and then a much lower high and not nearly as much buying I probably should have got filled more uh we are Four and a half points in um I mean there's a lot of volume that was transacted up here just look at this profile honestly if if we reclaim this level so if if the market is able to hold this high volume node we have a gap up this is kind of where you would want to see the market hold so 12 13 12 314. for

continuation if this move is going To be a trending move we already tagged the point of control though I don't know I don't see this going all the way back up to above that level at uh 12 380. it just seems like this is a this is beta right now for what was uh you know a weak Catalyst driven bounce based on jobs data I should have added to this it is Difficult to stream and trade at the same time I'll be the first person to tell you that because I should have I should have

more size on this right now and I do have this set up a little bit differently so you can see right when we came above that level so right when the NQ returned back to that that Pivot Point right so again labeled um we started getting aggressive selling Coming in and fading this move now I mentioned before you know levels of Market structure is important right but then there are there are many other levels that you should be marking at on your chart and they should be you know derived from volume they should be derived

from catalysts you know where things where significant change came in right where you know a significant amount of participation came into the market so this is actually a pretty nice Short right now um so let me just Square this up again 10 points 11 points see if we can get the move back down to view up I mean look yeah that all that volume come in above that level if you just look at the profile and we just left a a two-day composite back down around 12 7 that's a [ __ ] nice short Probably

gonna peel out of this because this is difficult to manage this and stream at the same time let's see if we could ride this a little bit more all right let's hockey our way back in uh someone's gonna front-run me up out all right so 44 points on the day um cool good stuff good stuff Uh where was I uh okay so check the chat real quick uh the UI Indie goes up uh [ __ ] I have a [ __ ] Charlie horse in my leg right now oh my God had to straighten that

out let me just show you guys what we have going on back here so one sec oh Charlie horse is really bad that's like if you've ever been on a bench I saw bit boy do this honestly oh My God you guys can see I have a pretty gnarly beard right now let me let me show you what I have going on in the background so we have my my gurneys sweater on sweatshirt so we ah it's not in it's not in the view um I have one of those like children's play things uh what

is it called Um like a pack and play for my daughter so that uh while I'm working you know you know I I work from home obviously right so I trade from home my wife is a stay-at-home mom um but if in my office I don't want to be in here all day and you know I take breaks I get out and see my daughter but instead of uh instead of just that being the case uh we have the pack and play in here so She could come in here and play with her in here

and I could turn around and you know take a quick break from time to time um okay so I actually yeah so Jacob I could change the profits can be changed to um multiple formats so I'll tell you uh I'll give you a little bit of alpha let me make sure that we're not missing Anything real quick I'm gonna try to keep this stream as casual as possible while trading uh BTC hat I I don't feel bad like I said about BTC we had a brief pop but I think it was probably just algo driven

let's change the screen real quick and make sure we're not missing anything or let's just actually see the next area where we would want to get involved anyway um so I this level as I said I said this Uh one stream ago or two streams ago however many streams we had since then probably just one as long as we're below this level I'm bare biased so if we're able to reclaim this level if we're able to get back above for the NQ and most of my trading in equity index Futures now has been in the

NQ if we're able to get back above there you know we show a clear sign of acceptance so after this rejection now If the market is able to trade back above you know 12 12 330 uh and we're able to base out then maybe we have a possible re-acceptance you know so far we rejected off of that point of control and it's probably the point of control of this entire composite it is um if we're able to re-accept back above where Powell knocked the market down so it really looks like so I combined a couple

profiles one sec combined a couple profiles to The left so that's that composite if we're able to trade back in there if we're able to hold that level I'm just going to treat this like another range so I'll treat you know 12 330. you know first sticky point where we rejected right now around 12 360. and then all the way up to 12 440. if the market could get back above there that's great you know then you know that was the that was the last major Turning Point um not the last major turning point I

mean this is the daily chart right now let me get rid of all these okay um so this is where the s p was best right this is the NQ right now but this is this level Market structure was we were at a nine month long uh Range High so really important contextual level at that point where we're still above the 200 we bounced at 200 right down here and I'm just thinking about the s p right now while looking at the uh the NQ um so bear with me and then we had that big

breakdown right so big breakdown and as I said the area where you would want to look to to either short or take profits if you long the bounce or just not not blindly long into was that 50 retracement that really nicely lined up with the prior range low so this multi-day composite your Low's right There you know 50 retracement again sort of Ideal area to see things get capped off but also see them get thrown back to for some kind of meaner version because Mark's just not going to move in One Direction This Market is

it looks like we're gonna be playing this game probably all year you know data gets bad okay maybe things are going to be pulled off a little bit early oh by the way you know inflation's still bad the FED is not happy okay higher longer and we're Gonna have this sort of see-song choppy Behavior All Year either way play the game um so that's that composite right there with respect to higher time frame Market structure the underside of that the excuse me the entire composite right here if we're able to show really strong constructive price

action in there it is back it is basically the case that we're back inside of this range so then maybe We have a much larger range to deal with and then you're looking at you know you're looking at possible continuation and maybe a final maybe maybe Excuse Me Maybe finally a breakout of what again was and I'll go back to uh this chart it's a it's a nine month long range at this point I mean it's really clean it doesn't get cleaner than this this is you know one two three four five six seven eight

nine ten excuse me 11 month long range Um right one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven so it's you know it's we're in the beginning of March um so 10 months basically so really clean so 4150 42. if we're above there you know as I said like you have to start thinking and this is like just really basic Game Theory any kind of long only asset manager that's been tepid and sitting out and oh my God this Charlie horse is gonna pop my hamstring that's been sitting out is gonna have to

Start worrying about you know they're bringing on Career Risk by possibly not getting into the market if we begin to Trend up and leave this all behind us so 4150 4200 that's a really significant level I don't have to tell you that the market is has really um done a good job of indicating that just based on Market structure it's not always you get a setup like this honestly not to invoke any kind of fear In anybody's heart but the last time we had a really clean monthly setup like this was uh in the 1970s

and that was um that was something that we broke down from so it was a I think it was a much shorter range so just clean monthly setup excuse me this might be completely wrong but I think we had a very clean setup in the 70s and you know somewhat similar context but No I was much shorter just talking about multi-month highs that were really clean and I guess that was me reaching but that's back here um so either way you know as I was saying with the NQ we have a micro range above us

to multi-day composite but potentially if we break through that so if we're able to trade back above this little range right here Right so that is a that's like a it's a two and a half day long range we're looking at the Futures Market but if we're able to trade back in the underside of the structure you know you're targeting 12 600 12 700 possibly just a Range High just you know how we treat most of our setups well for those of us that trade ranges and trade from level to level which is Which has

been the smart thing to do um arguably for the last year and a half um so it's a decent setup it's a decent opportunity it's also that the area that you would expect us to get rejected from though that took a lot for me to say I don't know why I was so long-winded about that there's a lot of things going on doing this and flipping windows and trying to keep a train of thought Um what was I going to say before that though Okay so the next area that I would look for a bounce

would be back down at this composite right around 12 250. so we'll see if we're going to be doing something like that I mean after that bounce it's just been one-sided flow so just looking at CBD and Delta But I mean whoever was able to short and hold on up here I didn't hold that this is probably coming all the way back down at least I would imagine this at least comes back down to view up I mean this move held the one standard deviation band the entire time probably looking at at the two standard

deviation band I don't have it on right now um just where this outer line would be a ton of volume up there and then yeah it looks like it's Probably going to come back down to view up around 12 260. I don't want to chase this short right now during the stream um I mean honestly probably could tag one on invalidation being above tag two on see if I can get filled more this just looks very one-sided right now filled for two and then above 12 310 we'll just play stops there just in case Kind

of a hasty entry but for the sake of trading during the Stream I want to get something going um so anyway what was I saying what wasn't I saying actually uh okay so what I was gonna say was uh see this is how I get lost easily um what is this song 1000 tick right now yeah Put on 350 tick um about points instead of using uh currency so this is going to stop me out right now um you could have it on points currency or there's a couple other settings as well the benefit of

looking at points is I think it takes emotion out of it so if you're trading and you have that set to currency You're going to see when you're in the red you're going to see exactly how much money you're losing and and that kind of thing can [ __ ] with your head so rather than do that I would rather a decent base out I mean when you look at it now it's like you have a clear Divergence right now and absorption so high or low and so I zoomed in and didn't even notice that

it's probably going to be stopped out on this trade um When you have when you're just looking at points you yeah I was just stopped at a one stopped out both that's all right um watch it dump now when you're looking at points it just takes the emotion out of it so rather than looking at the actual dollar value let's say you see your thousand dollars down and you see your you know however much money down rather than do That by looking at points just kind of like it's treating like a game I think a

little bit more uh which I think just helps you in the long run so the concept of also one of the things you could do to help yourself as a Trader is hide your p l so not looking at your p l so the trouble is I had it on uh I'm not going to make excuses but I am I had it on a 1000 trade setting so normally intraday I'm Going to have it on a 350 trade setting and then if I just want to zoom out a little bit to you know sort of

like if I was looking at a higher time frame chart then I'll switch between the 1000 tick setting now when you're looking at the 1000 tick setting you can't really see uh and you know I could have seen it if I had it a little bit had it um scaled a little bit differently when you're looking at a 350 tick chart or lower time frame chart That's when you could see on the low time frames uh you could see signs of absorption a little bit clearer so for example you know this uh maybe this ends

up failing back at the same level but maybe I would have waited for my entry at that point though I did get in like I said pretty hastily sorry we're still up 20 points in the day um but point being This where's my drawing tools just make sure I have my drawing tools on you have a higher low right here and looking at the lower time frame setting or lower tick setting you could see very cleanly that there's a clear Delta Divergence so ideally now we have something where we make a lower high right here

not right here but a lower high under This important contextual level and then we start breaking Market structure again to the downside [Music] um and then maybe we'll look to to ride a short again but I was basically chasing a breakdown thinking we were going to get something a little bit Swifter so I think the es actually trades really clean I just prefer the NQ because I Don't know it trades a little bit closer to what I've been used to for the last seven years which is BTC so before that I was trading Equity index

Futures I was trading crude oil um but after not trading those for a really long time you know I initially went back I traded the es uh I traded the on the NQ I was trading them back and forth and trying to get a feel for which one I liked more what product I could I guess Um what product I could uh warm up to a little bit better again and I think it ends up being the case that I prefer the NQ over the es but there's times when I I'll switch it up so

so we're building value now back above that so if we're going to be if we're going to start building value above that level I don't necessarily want to look for the fade as long as we're above it and we're building value I mean it's Entirely possible that we're going to leg up like I said and start trading throughout this entire range I mean this is a really wide opening range so far so right off of the open pretty strong move so this is a 30 minute opening range these black lines um it's a really strong

move so far now a really wide move like that you have some people who will say that it's same with the initial balance that you know you're looking at um You know you're looking at uh a trend a versus a you know a range day versus a trend day and you know if you have a tight one you'll look at a range day after the break versus a trend day excuse me a trend a versus a range day it doesn't necessarily that I don't think that stuff is really that actionable this right off of the

open so the open is I don't know why this isn't lined up perfectly with the open um the open should be right here this Right off of the open really strong one-sided move as you could tell so whether or not this continues I don't know I mean if we look at the dollar right now what's the dollar doing I think big picture of the dollar still looks like it's going to bounce more like I said I mean at multi-year support where arguably what would be multi-year support at least for some time I mean it's a

big move over the long over a long period of time this is a really big Range over a much longer period of time do we expect it to fail that fast I mean no you expect that this area to provide some level of support which supporting the dollar has has you know led to trouble and risk although those that relationship hasn't always been the case over the last decade it definitely has been the case over the last year and a half so ideally for BTC because we've had this sort of small squeeze again Catalyst driven

it's not exactly following the s p tick for tick correlation has actually been pretty low recently um I wouldn't want to get you know I I'm not second guessing my decision to close my long out honestly unless we're trading back above yesterday's value or back within yesterday's value above yesterday's POC you know and then maybe we have Uh specifically maybe we have some kind of re-acceptance setup back in this range yesterday I said what 12 150 so I shared this on Twitter 12 150 acceptance above there and then I would have looked at something possibly

back to Mid back to high arguably after a structure like this big move down and then a failed breakdown continuation A lot of times you could just write off the midpoint as being something you could take for granted and you could just expect this to slingshot up to the High um I think it's I think that setup is still a decent setup so this being a high probability setup versus anything down here you know leading back up to possibly just here before turning Unless we have some kind of further fault you know pop through that

level uh that as I said I shared this on Twitter with this little box um as I said spikes into those lows and then recovers so maybe something that spikes into these lows and then we have a bounce and then I think you have something a Little bit more concrete but you would still probably be looking at targeting the underside of this range as a first Target so the NQ is bouncing off of uh 30 minute opening Range High I mean that is not if you just look at this amount of selling that came in

after this high everything's going to look a lot less on this next leg Right so it could say that this maybe looks like it's on less momentum less buying but there's a lot of selling into this move so this is going to start from uh this the starting point for this is obviously going to be much lower you know there's times when I say that for example I talked about this right here lower high in cvd much lower you know much lower high in CBD lower high in price just indicating a lack of buying at

this Next high a lack of uh follow through and similar demand I thought maybe we get another set up here at the Range High I mean the es has not really done much we are if if we look at I mean it actually is pretty clean so if you look at uh just the last couple days structure so we're still holding yesterday's high so you know this is possibly a transition maybe we have a A move through this Gap cleans up the structure from a wrist award standpoint this is the best place to Define some

kind of invalidation for a swing long value moving up volume moving up you can see the POC shifting right now uh so listen a cleaner brake setup at this point is us failing here and then rotating back Within yesterday's structure you know and then you have I think that you have a really quick move back down through this move up because it's pretty one-sided and I think you probably have um probably have poor lows today yeah we do so today's TPO in the es is we have a poor low so far you can kind of

see it on the volume profile see how that's kind of blunt Down there although the vine profile is not going to show it as good as the TPO but if you put on a 30 minute chart which is what your TPO is made of you can see how close these lows are right so it's right down here actually so no real Wick um never took yesterday's lows but again this being driven right now by employment data and you know there's a lot of buying into the close yesterday Which was quite odd he had like 250

million notional on the bid within a couple points so pretty weird check the chat real quick so either look for any NQ either look for failure again see if we could re-uh say re-loose [Music] um if we start trading back under that that that area that I labeled Powell Testimony then maybe we have a lower high in the making um but mindful of where the es is sitting right now so again powwow so just to put it on this chart that level is right it's basically right here right so if we're unable to press through

here Right and accept above then I think your failure here again this is just a very imbalanced move up it's not exactly a structure that looks like it's built really strong so far it's pretty top heavy in terms of uh where volume is coming in but it all does depend on the ES turned out to be a pretty decent short for Ethan uh what was I going to say earlier about oh dydx you just find the chat Real quick where the chat go there we go um so for stream deck I have it set up

to hook up to any platform that allows for hotkeys so I don't think um buy bit natively allows for hotkeys if you're using like uh teal Street or Quant Tower then then you could use the hotkeys I have it set up for Sierra charts so I could place orders on CR charts Um for example if you just look at the NQ right now I could switch between lot sizes could get in and out of positions really quickly but uh for like right through by bits by bits uh website you can't use hotkeys you have to

have some kind of setup this actually would have been a decent short up here into that Gap Where you would expect Supply to come back in but after closing long I wasn't gonna immediately open short so the funny thing is a lot of that move up open interest is still just kind of mooning so I wonder if you have Longs that just chase that so dydx why was this a really good short someone asked me that I think in the Discord so let's say this is the hourly chart here's the daily chart so I was

talking about this being a good long for a while so good long right until about up here so this was kind of make or break you know you have a multi-month long range so really clean structure you know if you're looking for a bottom this is what you would want to see right Multi-month range finally have a breakout and you're treating what was you know nine ten month long resistance as support finally so this is possibly if BTC is moving up it's moving up markets are healthy this is clean as you're gonna get to to

Long the trend change you know if you didn't long down with the lows this is a significant shift in Market structure right major contextual level the NQ looks like it might be rolling Now go ahead and uh one sec I'm just taking a look at this on the top screen yeah momentum's drying up see if it grabs short again um so this is uh the most significant contextual level on the chart right you have here and here right defining the range low defining the Range High Um so holding this as support is was quite meaningful

right you had a couple attempts back at it right so first one most obvious first one is going to give you the most significant response second one okay maybe we're you know we're building um a firm base right here and and ideally you would want to see that after this Breakout again that you have some kind of momentum that's a white line so that's Not really going to help um there we go after this breakout you have some kind of momentum let me clean that up so it should be pretty precise on your screen after

that breakout you want some kind of momentum right we took that local high instead yeah the exact opposite so a really bullish setup that fails it's pretty bearish right especially on the High time frame especially when everything starts rolling over so this honestly before uh we got to this point this looked like it had the furthest to fall if everything is going to roll over this is probably going to just treat this range like it did prior so meaning Range High is broken your midpoint is probably your first Target one sec Midpoint is probably your

first Target and then you're looking at range low right um so really bullish setup that fails so that's ultimately what it is and this is this moves very quickly for a reason so you took out this high so you anyone who is shorting this lower high you run those stops and then when you run stops and and blow out shorts even though there's not much of a gas out or blowout Here you remove any buying pressure that's back within the structure so anytime the shorts are in the market there's built-in buying pressure in the structure

so instead you know you remove that stop them out trigger some breakout Longs right here so you play stop orders back within here and then the reversal is just it's it's it's violent at that point so my breakdown setup was so if you look at this daily and then let me just get rid of this I'll draw on this chart and then you'll see it'll it'll go on the other charts as well it was just right here so is the retest right here that we're looking at so I was shorting right in the 250 248

region um and yeah that's that looking at the underside retest and then ultimately looking at mid-range and I shared Yesterday why this looked like um the NQ is uh pushing up again I'm still going to short until we're up at that high um I was uh what was I saying yesterday it looked like someone was starting to front run the midpoint of the range and take some profit on shorts and potentially buy back so that was right around the 190s I shared that on Twitter and turned out to Be somewhat accurate because we had since

then you know almost a 10 bounce but you know just very clean Market structure it was being respected on the way up it looked really bullish um if you're talking about a significant change in the market and possibly a longer Trend that's going to occur you know that kind of setup is what you want to see so when those begin to fail sort of across the board like there's no Reason why any one of them should hold up in particular I don't think there's any kind of like idiosyncratic strength in this market right now so

it was kind of simple in that regard I think there's probably a there's a decent amount of setups honestly that somebody blow this I'll look on a different chart actually if you look at the daily so we're you know there's a good amount Of rollovers across the board let me get rid of the profile just put on something like the 20 period moving average right what is still relatively close you have you have Ajax right so 20 period moving average a good sort of Line in the Sand Dynamic for bulls and bears um you know

strong Trends will hold this level will usually Hold like one two standard deviations of it uh so when you're still around it and most of the market is losing its footing you know it's a decent area to find a position in the opposite direction if we start losing it and we're still relatively close to it you know we have an overshot it tremendously so things that are so this is uh CVX I shorted this I shorted this yesterday and as you can see it was the market is rolling over CVX is compressing 20 periods moving

sideways markets moving sideways um and this uh was just relatively close to that average still and we haven't really overextended to the downside I was just kind of looking for shorts that hadn't done things like this right that's total defy but looking for shorts that hadn't really overthrown like one inch for example um Ave you know cardano looking at where They are with respect to the 20 period right they're they've gotten pretty far away right at this point so I think that things that are still close to it just haven't caught up yet I don't

think that we're looking at certain things that just are showing signs of strength and are going to hold up so that really left me with CVX flowkey and Ajax which I took a little bit of profit on I I think honestly better Shorts are going to arrive next week I think we do get some kind of relief rally um Let's uh get back to the other screen because I am open in two contracts see if this rolls now I mean it looks like we're losing momentum up here again it's at the the high of the

opening range we regain Powell's level I'm entered in from You can see the entry up here right 12 336 just gonna take profit on this because I can't talk and and trade that effectively at the same time so back at uh 37 points for the day that's probably Gonna Roll more but honestly it is difficult to manage positions and do this at the same time and I'm not paying attention as much as I should I should just place an invalidation Above the top of the range at this point and see if this one rolls but

judging by the weird clothes we had yesterday I don't know you never want to in this in this market it's really dangerous to get comfortable in a position thinking that you have a good idea you know a good amount of certainty about where it's going to end up it doesn't take much for the market to rip back in in your face so where's the chat I don't know what a harmonic is dude uh let's see I never heard of a CFG either day Donna foreign what's up Ross yeah Joe I I think you might have

mentioned a harmonic before I'm not I have no idea what a harmonic is I mean I've heard the term before I know people that use harmonics but no Mondo I don't really factor that in I mean I know that flows are really wacky The last six months because of zero days to expiry options but even though they've become just a talking point recently um no unless we're like close to Opex where unless there's anything like really egregious it's not something that I'd think about I mean for my intraday Trading you'll see how the market behaves

around Opex into you know into options expiry um if there's a really significant Expert you'll see that the market is very choppy but other than keeping that in mind and not like looking for the trend on those days then no I don't I don't try to look too much into it Dan's M pattern yeah I don't know uh Dan oh Dan who is in the uh Discord um yeah I mean he uses those I listen a lot of that stuff I I there are people that use that and they use it Successfully and more power

to them when I look at a chart and I look at and when I look at a chart all I see when people share sort of those patterns like they might pick one out and this is not talking bad about anybody's system but this is just what I see I think people see what they want to see and then kind of rationalize things after and I think they trade on Something else that maybe they can't identify subconsciously but then have sort of a reason for why that occurred because when I see people sharing M patterns

and W patterns they have like two of them picked out in let's say your screen right but then I see like 20 of them and then I think like well why didn't that one work like what how come that one's not highlighted it looks you know this like it's the same exact thing But uh listen if you're using that with something else and and deriving that you know some level of actionable information from it more power to you again rolling off of uh Powell's level See the s p is not it's it's mostly the NQ

that's pushing today I mean twice we're 2x the s p in terms of today's returns and I don't you know normal beta from the NQ to the ES Saying s p but you know es for index futures you know it's it's it looks like it's uh it's normal for it to be you know maybe within 1.5 to 2. but for the NQ to be really over performing and the s p did not be doing much I don't know if I would consider that within norms it's close but it just looks like the NQ Overshot I

mean we're talking about a really significant level for the s p we're not even close to it and the NQ is all the way back inside that range so I mean arguably you'd expect and this is not really a gap but it's not like an area where we established any kind of value [Music] um this region between 12 320 and 12 230 you would see this get filled Out now the s p is right down at its Range High so if we're looking at this as a composite we left and the s p did basically

did the same thing it's still at Range High down here somewhere so it's not like I would expect the NQ to hang out up here if the s p loses its Range High and uh re-accept so let me just see if I could Switch this up I can but I have a cut on the screen um so here's my point the s p loses this instead of you know it's not going to fill this out the Gap is up here for the s p if the s p loses 4K that's what I meant to say

um or that's what I was getting at then there's no real reason for the NQ to stay and fill this out instead of just completely reversing so it you know Overthrows to the upside and I think that if we lose 4K the NQ is just going to overthrow the downside as well and right now it just looks especially top heavy you know you're looking at just looking at the volume profile alone you have this nice P profile I mean this seems like a just forceful short squeeze you know that wouldn't be surprised surprised if This

rolls over just as you know in just as ugly as a fashion as it moved upward or painful I should say for one side and it's just you can see that just from this high it's just one-sided back down sellers are just overwhelming buyers right now so unless BTC swipes any lows we're not going to be taking any crypto trades during this stream but I was happy to grab some NQ positions that was my uh Cloud seeking yesterday Selling sell and March or get starched saying excuse me did I say selling saying selling yeah I

I honestly think we're gonna Splash this but we'll see the reason of getting rid of it before like you might think like well that's you know why would you get rid of your position right here if you think it's going to Splash here anyway what I want to make sure is we don't get you know in what seems like a ton of Spot selling we don't get something that splashes through and takes out twenty thousand five before doing that right I mean that's there's a big difference there um in terms of levels you know going

back to we're going back a few streams now since the beginning of this move and I started talking about this in February when I was talking about this correction that was going to come you know I was Talking about that early right I was talking about that at the end of January actually right we're going to have some kind of violent move down um this one held but I think the you know the area where you would bring in a ton of participation get people really committing uh panicking even these lows right I mean this

is from a profile standpoint It's more or less the largest gap we have since beginning of this move and I mean if we look at you know yearly v-wop right now which is basically the anchored view app for this move right because yearly is basically where this started you know it's I not to invoke any fear in anyone's heart but um the yearly open has no Wick right it's just little things like that right if you see that on a 30 minute Chart or a daily chart it's just an immediate Target not immediate right but

stands out is an area where the market might revisit and more often than I will so we're right at yearly view op right now that's coinbase if we look at um Finance perps we've lost it okay so a little bit of derivative positioning that's probably still at this point but you know Bull's definitely not in control anymore Um the area to really Splash and get most people involved would be to puke into this low trap a bunch of sellers down here and then have a reversal you know more or less puke into that Gap you

look at the edges of gaps to get involved so you know this box I have here is I have this box on this chart and if now the NQ is finally dumping I have this box on this chart and a couple alts and honestly that's it's nothing special About it it is a reminder when I'm looking at the chart to not get too aggressive with shorting into the things that I'm currently sure because I think that we do we have some mean aversion on a weekly time frame and I want to be reminded that I

shouldn't be buying into that I should probably look for look for more shorts at that point so if we're and this is just the start of next week So ideally in case I forget which I won't if we're here I'm looking at this I know immediately all right I had a plan I'm going to be looking to fade unless there's any major change in Legacy you know um and ultimately so I should I should make a point it's a little different if we come down Here first so if we're down here then maybe this is

the rally that I want to be part of mostly whereas if we started bouncing here I'm going to be looking to I'm probably going to be prioritizing a cell regardless because I still think we're coming down here just give me one sec because I have to take a take a leak so I'm gonna put you guys on hold for one Second we're back okay oh FYI I shared this in the uh the Discord Community uh I mentioned that if anyone was interested in trying to trade Legacy Commodities indices and FX I was going to look

at um the available exchanges to see if I could get the community any kind of deals you know sometimes exchanges have deals like private for example it's where I do my Crypto Trading they have sign up bonuses right now um so after looking into Prime after looking into Bing I actually went ahead with Bing and anyone who uses the link it's a link is in this description it's also in the community um gets 100 bonus you don't even have to put a deposit you could start off with that bonus uh that's how their setup is

not a lot of exchanges are but they are offering FX Commodities and cfds and I Don't think it's um I don't think it's kyc so in the community I share the resources I use I share exchange links and I'm going to be updating them from time to time depending on what bonuses are available you know sort of like if you're going to be in the community if you're going to use the links it's not you're not required to but I'm going to do my best to make sure that you're you get some kind of Kickback

Um anyway where were we the Inner Circle Trader um I I have a couple thoughts on the inner circle Trader um okay so one I'll go with the harsh truth first ICT probably does not trade and I say probably I'm saying that with a with some certainty with a lot of certainty with almost all certainty 100 um it's very unlikely that he actually Trades he makes almost all of his money I think he had a Freudian slip once by selling his courses um and his his mentorship or whatever it is okay so there's a few

reasons why I think that um there's some proof there's a couple old podcasts he was on he was on podcast with uh cartel which is a good Discord back in the day it's kind of devolved a little bit but it was more popular last cycle and flood so thinking USD made him Cry by putting him on the spot that was pretty painful to listen to um but he was in a trading competition and I think he blew up and I think that he's also backed out of and you know fake Traders a lot of times

they're the kind of people to say like oh you don't think I'm a good Trader trade against me uh I I was going to actually say something I probably shouldn't have said I want to make sure I don't say but I I normally Respond with it in person that's ridiculous um almost no real Trader responds like that and trading competitions are stupid anyway they're just for fun but he's not a real Trader is he a treating is he excuse me is he trait is he teaching Concepts that work yeah actually yeah I know a few

people that have learned through him and they're successful traders that doesn't mean That you know listen is it worth paying him to teach you I don't know that's up to you he teaches the same here's here's what he does sorry I'm a little bit all over the place ever since I got up to pee um I I was thinking about the answer this question in my head as I'm saying and I didn't have my my entire thoughts planned out most importantly what I want to say about ICT is he The most grifty thing that he

does scammy thing is he takes Concepts that already have terms and and trading jargon associated with them and then he takes simple Concepts and he rebrands them with his own terms and this is something that a lot of people do in different businesses even in different Industries accounting uh the league uh you know not not um not law but more more or less accounting is probably one of the most Egregious examples of it takes well-known Concepts re-labels them makes them sound really complicated and then sells them to you and he sells them as if he's

the only one who could explain them does that make sense he takes like really simple Concepts in the market basic supply and demand stuff honestly some basic order flow stuff and he over complicates it gives it his own term his own spin so that he could be the one who you know has that special Information and is able to uh you know demystify the market to you when it's really he's just repackaging [ __ ] that's already publicly available that's what it is honestly sorry it took me a second to get to that conclusion he's

a you know he's kind of a con he takes stuff that is already well known Concepts that don't belong to me that don't belong to you they just they're part of the market and uh he repackages them as if they're something that he Just you know he uh you know discovered on his own he doesn't trade but does he teach things a certain way that maybe people can absorb because he's a good teacher is he a good teacher maybe he's a good teacher right there are people that uh they teach professional baseball players how to

swing a baseball bat swing coaches Maybe coaches that teach the pitcher how to pitch better right Coaches on sports teams right that help the athletes they're coaching them how to play their particular position or you know do something for the team regardless of what sport you know whether or not it's baseball or basketball but they don't play the sport professionally right I feel like the last like two to three minutes of me talking I've Just been rambling honestly and mumbling I can't get my thoughts straight right now um I feel you know what honestly it's

like when you ask me something like that I feel bad about I feel bad talking [ __ ] about somebody so like I want to say what I think but then part of me holds back and then I'm not able to communicate effectively and and I kind of like dancing around my words you know got to be smart about What I say I mean let's be honest if it if you ask me in person I'd say that guy's a [ __ ] idiot uh he's a grifter ah I said it but yes people have learned

from him but it's just maybe because he's a good teacher Fair sorry for the uh inability to Articulate myself all right what else we got PTC dumped down to what today's open did we yeah Mondo was see I don't really like so that's why I have trouble even like articulating it and giving an honest answer I don't like bashing people man like most of these people have already been Beat up in life like a lot of people on crypto Twitter a lot of the people that you know you interact with on a day-to-day um people

that are like they have sort of edgy and and uh you know maybe carrying attitude and have a certain way about themselves on Twitter it's they are that way because you know maybe they have poor self-esteem maybe they're unhappy in their life Um and I don't feel right about calling them out on those things and ICT I think is a guy that's just you know he's a fraud he's a fake but even that I don't like you know I feel bad I guess calling a spade a spade because I don't know you know what it

is it's because I heard him cry that was a painful thing to listen to listen a grown man crying there's something About it you know something about hearing a grown man like cry like there's different types of cries right when my daughter was born I cried there's times when I go in my daughter's room late at night honestly I look at my daughter when she's sleeping and I get like tea re-eyed so that's one thing okay that's just me being real I'm just so happy over the moon but there's another thing when a man is

just like Sobbing you know losing control of their voice box shuddering um that's painful to listen to now have I ever cried like that before in my life yeah I've lost really good friends I've been there when friends were gone I've lost friends in person um yeah maybe a full docs is in order one day but Hearing that on the internet over trading was just that's painful that guy's already hurt by life enough I tell you what that guy makes a lot of money teaching though um anyway I digress is there anything else time is

it's 11 16 do you think the interest on our debt is a proper counter argument to the FED raising rates higher for longer I mean It's not a good thing right it's not a good thing you know what's interesting is we're kind of like is it maybe we're on the verge award world through world war three we're close to it it's a different type of War obviously um but that's something to think of if you can't really have high interest rates be in debt and be at War So for us for other countries just when

I look at everything that's going on from my small P brain in terms of geopolitics and the economy and what's taking place in our country you know my country and abroad things just seem like they're kind of broken right something just something is different something's amiss you know I was a kid who grew up in I was born in the 80s grew up in the 90s when I was in college Like the world felt like it was my oyster like it it felt like in in the early 2000s and late 1990s like you know everything

was good life was a movie not for everybody but you go to school you get good grades you gotta you come out there's a bunch of jobs available for you if even if you don't get the best jobs like you could climb the corporate ladder you have a great chance You know life you know Life is Peachy uh now it's like everything just feels like just a scary carnival ride right things feel backward the fat like how can I put it the like fabric of society feels like it's tearing um I don't know just a

thought as we trade these stupid markets just feels like something's off right and it doesn't feel like it is uh I don't want to turn The stream into something you know into this theme but just doesn't feel like it's gonna it doesn't feel like it's slowing down right it feels like it's kind of speeding up um do you feel like do you feel that becoming successful has made you lose friends uh it's a great question honestly I like these streams things like this um let me move this so it's it's out of the Way of

the NQ Dom um Cold War 2.0 exactly great way to put it uh yeah so I feel uh yeah definitely do you feel you feel it becoming successful has made you lose it has because there's a saying that uh [Music] um the people that hate you the most when you become rich are like your best Friends like nothing's worse than seeing your best friend become rich not to say my best friends right but yeah it people they treat you differently they definitely do um they they just expect that you're able to help all the time

with any of their issues you know it's kind of like you become the ATM and The friend group it sounds [ __ ] up but it is some of them some of them do but you love them anyway but yeah there is something to be said for that and then and then people just I don't know they kind of fall off a little bit um so if some people don't become sort of lychee maybe they resent you um you know So I'm gonna get too into it but yeah I definitely see that yeah whereas last

days of Rome yeah let's be honest uh all Empires fall right what's the average age of an Empire upon falling was like 200 years or I don't know yeah that time was great right great music great TV great movies I can't tell you how many times I like To just get nostalgic and I'll be driving and I'll put on like 90s rock yeah the person to go to and some people just come to you for everything every little thing uh and I've had I've had a couple friends where you know not everyone has done this

so I don't want to make it sound like that but I've had a few where I I've literally said how come you always come to me like is It just say is it because you know that I have it is that why it is I mean at this point now that I have a daughter and you know other things on my plate it's not like those things really add up to much right I'm still very I feel very comfortable in that regard financially but it doesn't mean that I want to spend all my money or

it could just treat it like it's Monopoly bucks Um I I was a person who when I first made a lot of money I bought the things I thought would be really cool to buy and then like a month into it you're just like all right I still feel the same I still wake up and put you know the same four sweat outfits on a week to go to the gym uh I bought this you know the first time I bought a really nice car you know I I thought you still drive at the same

you know it feels cool for like A month um you know buy a nice house maybe for some people um you know I bought a new we bought a new house recently I didn't buy a CR you know I didn't buy like a crazy Mansion or anything I bought a nice a nice house on the water but um after that like I don't know it's all the it's just you're buying just more Expensive versions of the same [ __ ] you had when you didn't have as much money yeah crabs in a barrel crabs in

a bucket yeah yeah the the hip-hop these days is definitely yeah I feel kind of like I feel like just an old person saying it because when you're younger everyone who's older than you says the same things right oh you don't know what it was like whenever I was younger the music was Better yada yada but I feel like it's true but we also you know we become nostalgic about the things that were part of certain you know certain points in our lives that were important as well so all those get attached and you know

it's more than just a song it's a it's a it's a Memory it's a point in time you reconnect to so those things obviously carry more value yeah decent that's a you know it's what you should be doing It's like the it's like the the benefit of reading even biographies or about people that have done great things in their life it's the concept of I could see further because I stand on the shoulders of giants you know if someone's walked the path before then chances are they have pretty good advice on how to walk and

what things to avoid you know um how they're able to get by along the way Yes family is is the most important thing absolutely honestly since you know my wife and I joke around streams becoming just talking stream my wife and I joke around like what were we doing before we had our daughter like we had a great life like but what do we do right like we have all this and we did the same thing that other people do we went out to dinner we you know vacationed from time to time but then you

know what else Like that's it that could be so boring I I would imagine that would be boring to do that forever maybe some people enjoy that but once we uh once we had our daughter it was almost like everything was complete right and then you realize that that's the most important thing at least for me you know my family is the most important thing my daughter my wife my parents my siblings Um and after having my daughter the idea of you know before having my daughter went this is like just a little bit of

my psychology before having my daughter when when people would come to me for things I think okay yeah like no problem I'm not borrowing from anyone else I don't need this you know if it helps you that's great now I just think of like every little bit adds up for my daughter Silly as that might sound but I think it's you know other people can probably relate like I have more important things at this point than to worry about you know your issues um why you're behind on on your rent you know for the 10th

time my dog is whimpering in her sleep in the background it's amazing man it's amazing so I'm gonna end this stream soon but Before we had kids we had we had everything else besides kids right we have you know we have great life okay um my trading is has afforded that uh my wife has her Hobbies I have my hobbies uh we have horses we have a dog we have a cat and you think like and when you think of the concept of love you think of the things you already love right so before you

have a child everyone tells you you're gonna love your child more than you could ever Imagine but you think about the things you already love and what would be more than that and you might think linearly right okay so my wife loves the horses I love my dog I love Freya right so I'm thinking all right so I love my dog so much right I'm gonna love my child more than my dog right so okay so how much more I don't know a lot more right um a whole lot more and in your head that

makes sense okay but then when my daughter was born you Realize you didn't have any clue about what love was what love even was okay um you could hear the dog dreaming you know I love my dog but my when my daughter was born I thought okay I didn't even know what love was this is like this is something that you know if you're not religious it's like uh a moment with God kind of thing and yeah it's it's incredible every day is an amazing day because and You know you know everyone who has kids

can can relate to this but even people that don't have kids can understand it every day is a new day because every day for years right they're going to be learning something new making a different noise doing something different that's cute just it just uh it melts you um but that's it guys I'm Gonna Roll out it's uh been an hour and a half we captured we Put some points on the board for 37 points on the board which is not much in the NQ um I probably would have taken a lot more trades by

now but it's all good I enjoy doing these streams I'm a little tongue-tied today I can tell you that I don't know why um I think I can actually tell you why because I had a pretty damn big breakfast uh so that's a little bit of alpha I am sharpest if you ever so here's some insight if you ever tune into a stream and notice how sometimes that could be kind of tongue twisted and and you know not have my thoughts all together and sometimes that could seem really clear cogent and and on point there's

a big difference between those days either no breakfast or breakfast if I have a big breakfast and if you have a big breakfast this is something that you know a little bit of Info for you your brain has to you know there's only so much energy to go around so if you're digesting a big breakfast so if you have a meeting if you have a podcast if you have anything work related if you have to trade you're probably better doing it on an empty stomach honestly right after I eat which was this morning I had

a big thing of overnight oats I got it from the gym last night um and you know most people don't eat The right portion of oats and I ate like three servings of the overnight oats in this jar they came in you know you're supposed to scoop one out for breakfast I just ate that at my desk this morning woke up really early because my daughter and I'm definitely experiencing a ton of brain fog right now but I appreciate you guys if you're able to deal with that and uh I'll be going live again on

what day Maybe Saturday same thing or tomorrow I don't know I'll I'll actually let you guys know on Twitter today I might be doing this again tomorrow okay until then have a fantastic evening uh be sure to check out those links below if you're interested in trading on either platform or using any of the things that I use because I think uh there's a couple links in there In the description below if they're not I'm just trying to think they're in the Discord so for example coin lies you know if you're interested in the platforms

I use the uh I mean trading platforms if you're interested in the software all that [ __ ] is it's under resources in the Discord all right