In 6 Days, Everything Changes For Crypto [I'm Doing This NOW]

Is the bottom in for crypto that is the million-dollar question right now there is a lot to discuss because we've had some very volatile price action over the last couple of days in today's video I'm also going to be going through my full portfolio strategy heading into trumps inauguration the altcoins that I think are the best positioned in the market right now which represent really strong holds throughout this next period and I'm also going to be touching on what I make of all of the current macro development and how I think this impacts the crypto

markets I think this is going to be a really valuable show for you guys to understand where we're currently sitting as a market and how to correctly position for this next period of the bull run and over the last couple of weeks I think this volatility has made a lot of us reflect on our positioning and how we actually approach the market so I Wanted to summarize some of those learnings as well in today's video to help you guys heading into this next period um if you didn't feel like you maximized Q4 how you can

take those learnings to maximize this next period of the bull run so if you do enjoy content like this make sure you do click that subscribe button down below click that post notification Bell and sit back relax and enjoy the show because it's going to be a very very alpha- packed One I'm going to try and keep it as short as possible relative to the amount of alpha in this show um there is a lot to go through and a lot that we really do need to discuss right now so firstly let's summarize what happened

with Bitcoin Bitcoin obviously had that huge Wick to the downside we touched 89k at one point obviously caused a lot of fear yesterday but remarkably from the wick low we've already bounced 7% which on bitcoin is an absolutely massive move And a lot of altcoins are up 10 15 20 in some cases 30 plus% today which is absolutely wild even some of the def AI coins that I mentioned two days ago since that video already up 50% um so the market has obviously started to react really positively after what was a brutal ShakeOut yesterday I

think that had a lot of people questioning uh their positioning those in the Discord knew that throughout that period we were pretty Resolute basically I was just Saying I'm holding my core positions um you can obviously look to drisk anything that you're not bullish on but primarily uh I'm not trying to get shaken out by that event and if anything there were some good opportunities during that event which I shared and we'll go over some of the Bu The Dip coin slightly later in today's video something I also did yesterday uh at the beginning of

the day which I shared in Discord was I just basically opened up a short hedge to Protect against a little bit of downside which is a tactic that you guys can actually use if you have a lot of allcoin positions but you don't necessarily want to touch your principle you can look at Short hedging during times of volatility to protect against downside without having to go onchain and sell altcoins it's especially practical for trading small caps and midcaps for the large caps of course you can just uh drisk in terms of naked spot Uh positioning

but looking at Bitcoin it has been a strong thrust to the upside which makes that move look like a deviation below range low now time will tell if this is a sustained Rally or whether we potentially could get another leg to the downside and I think over the next couple of days that will become really apparent with CPI data in a couple of minutes here I'm going to be going through the CPI data and letting you know how the market will react Depending on how that data comes in but for now at least we're probably

in the clear for another 24 to 48 hours so I guess if you really really were panicking yesterday and you lost conviction in a lot of your old coins since a lot of them have bounced heavily now I'm personally not really doing this but for people that are Overexposed cuz I'm holding around 34% Stables right now you could look at this as a chance to Dr risk because if you are really really Panicking that's probably a sign you're Overexposed and it probably means some of the old coins you're in you don't have much conviction in

and this could be an opportunity for you to just top up on a little bit of stables ahead of CPI albeit I have an opinion about what's going to happen in the market over the next week which might at least challenge your thinking there a little bit I'll get into that uh in a couple of minutes here but generally speaking drisking if You're really short on Stables after this relief B relief balance I don't think is is a terrible idea if you were really really panicking and worried yesterday but speaking of panic and worry although

In the Heat of the Moment it was quite scary and I understand why people were fearful if you actually zoom out and you look at the monthly weekly charts for Bitcoin and the others altcoin index like you can see in front of you this is really just a blip Overall and to me it looks like a healthy correction like there is nothing on this chart that really screams extreme bearishness we didn't break below the ball Market bound on the weekly on the others chart we didn't do that on bitcoin either on the weekly if you

go to the weekly chart here you could see we're still sitting well above I guess a lot of the fear came from the fact okay if Bitcoin breaks down from range low you know could we dip into the 80s and could that really affect altcoins but the reason why altcoins sold off more aggressively is because of that fear and altcoins are always the first thing right that people sell when fear creeps into the market so I actually think if Bitcoin had kept dropping to the 85 K Zone the worst was already in for alts even

at 90k because they're the first things that people D risk and and then as Bitcoin went to 85 sure TS maybe would bleed a bit more but The worst of the move was actually already in at that point and that's something that I briefly touched on uh in yesterday's show with Jason which I think gave you guys a great macro look at the market Alex Kruger here points out interestingly how many of these bottoms actually form on Mondays during the US Open so he says going to say this again you probably want to book market

and study past events equities often bottom on Mondays around the US cash Equities open at 9:30 a.m. EST this pattern emerges following a big down week with a panicky close which is what we got last Friday of course bottoms may happen on any day of the week but Mondays are heavily over represented this is because Panic Brews over the weekend intensifies during load liquidity and from the moment US futures open on a Sunday they culminate with Max Panic around the cash equities open on Monday when the American Cavalry arrives And that is exactly what happened

yesterday we saw that capitulation on US Open and then after that dump things started to stabilize so this is a good reminder that when you do see these huge sell-offs heading into Monday that you've got to maintain a level head and probably Panic selling on Monday open is not a great strategy if you are going to sell the best thing to do is deris some crypto exposure on the weekend especially if there's like a scam pump On a Saturday that's probably or a Friday it's a better time to drisk exposure not doing it on the

Monday open generally speaking and that's the whole promise with drisking as well you generally want to drisk into the anticipation of an event so prior to it as opposed to on the actual event then it's not drisking that's just Panic selling so there is a big difference between drisking which is typically in anticipation of something so a Monday Open a couple days prior and actually Panic selling which I think a lot of people were doing yesterday and that contributed to this week to the downside which is now started to stabilize doc xbt here says that

Bitcoin had a range low sweep an open interest reset 18% down from the highs bearish news absorbed at the lows inauguration maybe a non-event now lots of things scream bottom except for the fact we didn't fully fill the liquidity Gap as a Squiggly line enjoyer This doesn't sit right with me but at the same time markets don't give an f about what I want now the reality is the next move is going to be dictated I think a little bit by the data tomorrow and also how Trump reacts during his first days of being inaugurated

so as forou points out here the inauguration has kind of gone from a sell the news to a buy the news event in the sense that I think there was this Mantra in the markets Throughout the month of December that okay we're going to long this Trump pump and then around inauguration we're going to sell but that sell off actually happened a few weeks prior to inauguration and lasted until yesterday if you want to call that maybe the local bottom for the time being um just for the sake of this argument so then if the

entire Trump move has already been der risked because the stock market had sold off to the election day so basically the Entire move had been retraced then you've got to ask yourself you know is it a sell the news event anymore is the inauguration now maybe a buy the news event now I think to answer that question it really depends on how Trump reacts in the early days of his presidency because he has come out and he has made big claims about how he's going to look at a Bitcoin strategic Reserve how he's going to

free Ross alri how he is going to be very good for Crypto and pro regulation and he's going to push the industry forward he's made all of these big claims but we need to see some action and if he can demonstrate in the early days of his tenure that he is willing to commit to some action that I think crypto is going to take this positively now one of the reasons why the market is also been reacting on this by the news premise a little bit over the past 24 hours is because there has been

new information That's come out from the Washington Post that Trump is expected to issue executive orders pertaining to crypto on day one you can see here in the article saak and members of the Trump transition team have been working closely with crypto leaders to finalize a legislative strategy Trump is expected to issue executive orders on the first day of his presidency that may address issues including debank and the repeal of a controversial crypto accounting policy So if he can come out on the first day and make some big moves then I think overall the markets

react positively and thus this inauguration event does become by the news so that is I think a bullish Catalyst we'll discuss another bullish Catalyst in terms of trump coming in because I don't think it's just as simple as oh Trump's going to come in and make everything better there's a couple of variables right now but clearly this is one of them another Element right now which is affecting the market is Silk Road seemingly not selling which was one of the things that also triggered that Cascade to the downside which means there actually not going to

sell before Trump takes office so while macro as Evan points out here remains an elevated risk headline shifts to the upside once Trump takes office just like I mentioned executive orders on SBR crypto generally are probably a positive Tailwind for the market which I Think is one of the reasons why crypto's actually bounced quite strongly relative to the stock market as well over the past 24 hours so that's positive however I just want to point um to the fact that CPI is tomorrow now from a macro lens this is a very very very important day

perhaps really what everyone in crypto has been waiting for over the last week or so because this is going to tell us what inflation is doing so the previous inflation reading was 2.7% the forecast is that inflation increases to 2.9% so analysts right now are expecting a 2.9% inflation print tomorrow now I think it's quite simple but this is basically the framework I'm operating on if it's too .9% it's play on for markets I think then people will look forward to fomc on the 29th of January just to see what Jerome Pal's Mantra is but

I don't necessarily think in that event we see a huge selloff if the forecast is hot so Comes in at 3% I think we see a slight sell-off I don't think it's going to be a ridiculous sell-off but it is definitely going to be negative for Bitcoin and altcoins because there will be fears about inflation creeping back into the market on the contrary if it's 2.8% so lower than 2.9% I think this is going to cause a big pump in the markets at least the markets are going to react really positively initially because that shows

us that the economy is less hot so Inflation is potentially less cool than people think now I personally don't see it being under obviously I'm very happy if it is under CU that is great for markets and that will be an even bigger tail in heading into Trump's inauguration I am expecting I'm going to go with the analyst here that it is 2.9% I think either of those scenarios are good for crypto what we really want to avoid is 3% 3% or 3.1 in in the real bare case would really be bad for Markets in

the short term and then obviously we have fomc which is the following week on the 29th n days after Trump is inaugurated and that is obviously going to be where Jerome pal puts in his final presser until March so there is this blackout period where there's no fed fomc in the month of February which potentially opens the door for sustained price action to either side if he comes out and he's reasonable and you know we're at 2.9% on the CPI and everything's to plan and he doesn't get even more hawkish then I think that's actually

good for markets cuz What markets hate is uncertainty right so even if it's in line with expectations you got to remember markets are already forward looking they're already pricing that in and taking that into account what what we don't want is any negative shocks obviously we're happy for him to come out and be a little bit more doish or We're happy for this reading to be 2. 8% or lower obviously uh in terms of the bias towards risk on assets what we just want to avoid is is him coming out to hawkish nonetheless markets hate

uncertainty and there is a bit of certainty as soon as Jerome pal speaks then you have the the entire month of February and half of March where you are going to have a period of not peace cuz there's still macro data coming out throughout that period but at least it's A period where markets are a little bit more free to maneuver whereas right now you have you know cpia into Trump's inauguration into fomc it's a highly volatile period and it's a period where no wonder the Market's feeling emotional cuz it's extremely volatile so that's CPI

now the second factor that I want to discuss regarding Trump which I alluded to before is the US dollar so obviously with all of these fears coming back regarding inflation with oil Rising With You Know energy stocks Rising this is all alluding to more inflation coming in as a response the Dixie so the US dollar Index has strengthened so a strong US dollar implies the potential for interest rate increases which obviously risk assets don't like generally speaking the Dixie is inverse correlated with risk assets so for crypto you want a weak dollar and crypto performs

badly when there's a strong dollar now Trump when you think about it He's about to come into the office on the 20th he actually wants a weak dollar because what he will try to do in my opinion based on what he said and what we know about Trump is apply protectionist policy to the economy so focus on local manufacturing focus on creating more jobs in America focus on localizing a lot of industry for that to happen you actually don't want a super strong US dollar when you're importing you want a super strong US dollar When

you're exporting you actually want a weaker dollar because when you're exporting according to your terms of trade you earn more money with a weaker dollar versus a stronger dollar now Trump wants to localize a lot of these industries so does it really make sense for him to have a US dollar at 120 in my opinion it doesn't there's been also a lot of speculation about this on Twitter like Rhino here saying my bet is Trump equals lower US dollar rates lower crude Prices higher risk prices my bet is the first heavily Pro crypto Administration is

not sell the news and has bright implications for our future my bet is that Dixie is not going to 120 stocks have topped and we aren't hiking now this is obviously contrary to what a lot of people are fearing at the moment you know inflation coming back maybe we have a problem in terms of interest rates risk assets are going to be weak but when you think about it Trump wants A weak dollar now it's not just because of that the other reason he wants a weak dollar is because he wants strong assets I was

watching Ran's video yesterday and one good point that he made was Trump's about the vanity metrics and I would agree with him in the sense that Trump wants to see strong equities strong crypto because he made all these promises about you know the health of the economy how do you Benchmark how do you quantify the health Of the economy it's through asset prices so he wants asset prices to go up especially in his early days because that's when people are really going to judge whether he's doing a good job or not does he want to

see the US skyrocketing risk assets dropping no that's going to cause a lot of pressure on him and then he'll need to act later to try and rectify that now obviously he doesn't have control over the FED but I think he'll do as much as He can in his power to rectify this situation and that ultimately is good for crypto now obviously this is speculation because if inflation is really going out of control he might be forced into taking certain measures but I think it's in Trump's interest to bring this down and thus that is

going to AB Boe welfare risk assets so although it seems sometimes like some points yesterday there's no light at the end of the tunnel for crypto and that Macro is just going to get worse and worse and worse just remember what we have around the corner I think crypto at any given moment in time is is on balance of probabilities you know there's no absolutes there's no Trump going in is bullish or you know this happening to macro is bearish it's always both weight against the other so yes there are negative headwinds right now inflation

creeping up US Dollar Rising potential CPI print indicating Inflation's rising and that could be reflected in what Jerome pal says and does but then there's also bullish Tailwinds Trump's inauguration and crypto policies surrounding that in the early days his response to the US dollar and Equity prices and overall sentiment after a lot of the uncertainty is out of the market changing to a position of certainty so you've got to weigh both up in my op op I think the latter is a lot more Powerful and that's why I haven't wavered in my longer term conviction

in terms of positioning in the market there are tweaks of course that I'm making to make sure my exposure is correct and in line with the current trends and later in today's video I'll show you exactly what that is but generally speaking I haven't been shaken out of my thesis over the last few weeks now is there a possibility for lower prices of course especially if CPI is negative you still Have to be on the lookout right and we still have fomc and there's still the chance and I don't think this will happen but there's

still a possibility Trump comes out and doesn't act quick enough on crypto so people start to worry a little bit those are all negatives and valid negatives to suggest that you shouldn't just be all INF fom moing right now so take it slow let this data digest you're not going to miss the bull run but maintain a level head Throughout this period uh and realize that it's a probabilities game and not a game of absolutes now in the midst of all this fear with a lot of people panicking you see the stocket Market fear indexes

at 27 yesterday Bitcoin fear and greed dropped a lot during the period when Bitcoin started to dip there's been a lot of controversial takes on the timeline I wanted to discuss one of them in particular because I think it's quite valuable to Have this discussion as it pertains to altcoin positioning so there's this tweet that Anam did and anom is like the biggest bear on X right now he came out and said there's no old season ever again only pockets of extreme outperformance with people moving down the risk curve and sicking terms but never to

the same level as ever before what's the real reason Bitcoin dominance just doesn't go up and to the right for a decade straight so he's come out being A little bit bearish Jason Choy well not a little bit he said the cycle had 75% TOS last week so he's quite bearish I think at least he's bare posting right and it's causing a lot of stir not just him but a lot of people he's just one example Jason Choy Who I Really respected tangent Ventures said all coins go up massive was an anomaly that is now

ciled by massively increased supply of coins short of another pandemic and Galactic quantitive easing Wonder if we get it again so basically the question being asked will there ever be an ALT season again which at face value you could really dismiss and say oh rubbish of course there'll be an alling season again but I actually wanted to do this Justice and dive into this a little bit more because the answer to this question there in lies the correct strategy to play this next leg for altcoins so I'm going to read out my Post and then

we're going to break down the action points that come out of this post so will there ever be an ALT season again seeing a lot of discussion about this on the timeline firstly it depends on your definition of alt season if you're referring to the index so you know that old season index with the you know bullish altcoin chart and then the bearish altcoin chart that I sometimes reference on the shows if you're referring to that index then yes in my Opinion there will be an old Queen season again because that's simp right that alt

season index is simply a calculation of the Major altcoin Performance relative to bitcoin and we know at some point during bullish market conditions that is going to trigger into the positive side of things again so if that's your index then yes but if you're referring to alt season and the definition is really subjective and I think that's part of the reason why There's so much contention around this discussion but if you're referring to Old season which technically we're in a month ago referring to the multimon up only Mania of 2021 with everything 10x is then

no I don't think we get that at any point this cycle because there was a very unique cocktail of quantitive easing stimulus people at home bored wanting to speculate learn something new it's one of the reasons I got so much further into crypto in 2020 with def Summer because I was bored I was at home my job was on pause my University was on poor so I just got really into crypto and I think a lot of people were the same which was a very unique pretty hard to replicate lightning in a bottle set of

conditions that are probably never going to happen again right so I think the issue is people expecting because they've seen in 2021 those conditions that we see those exact conditions again of everyone rushing to Buy altcoins at once now if a larger altcoin season like that does happen it obviously makes our job a lot easier and complacency won't be punished as much in that scenario cuz everything will go up however having that mindset is a little bit dangerous so of course I'm open to the 2021 style bull run but balance of probabilities are telling me

based on the data we're probably not going to get it thus you need to change your framing A little bit so what is that framing well I think this Borum you have to go in with the mindset of the rotation into alts being shortlived going in with the mindset of every Run's going to be shortlived even if it isn't by the way forces you to take profets you'll never regret taking profets too early you'll always regret taking profits too late I don't think anyone ever regretted taking profits all and ask yourself this question cuz I've

Asked myself what are my biggest regrets from December right cuz when the music was playing we pared a little too high we danced a little too long during that period And I personally during that period uh didn't take enough profits there were some coins where I did manage to take good profits on and made decent money on but there were certain coins like checks as one example right I got in at 15 cents first qu it at 21 cents it run up a 4X or maybe like a 5x from My entry to 82 cents 20

cents from my Discord entry and roughly 3 and 1 half X from the First YouTube entry at that point I probably should have offloaded at least my initials and probably another 30 to 50% but I didn't I held on to it and the only reason why I didn't isn't cuz I was blindly bullish I'm just using this is one scenario cuz I think it's a valuable explanation it was simple complacency it was just like oh no the Market's going up yeah I'll take Profits at some point oh yeah I've got time to take provits as

pum probably going to go higher anyway and that mindset is all well and good in a bull run or a mini run until it isn't and then when things retrace you guys have probably noticed this it's like a ladder to the upside like you're slowly climbing the ladder and then it snakes to the downside it's like weeks worth of gains gone in a day and that's typically how these bull runs operate it's you Climb up the ladder slowly slowly slowly and then the snake takes you down in an instant so the problem is you need

to be taking profits as you climb up the ladder and I did on a lot of alts in December but I missed out on a few big gainers like checks because I was just a bit complacent and I fell down you know now with a coin like check I'm still bullish on rwa at some point this cycle for me that's a longer term hold so I'm not extremely worried but where it does Become worrying is when you have shorter term trades where you do the same thing on because at least with checks I can still

hold it now and be like okay I'm fine continuing to hold it um no worries I still have the same amount of conviction doesn't worry me whereas with a coin that was a trade if you didn't take profits maybe now you're in a position where oh I don't actually believe in this coin but it's down and then you have to make some hard Decisions you know oh do I cut it a loss that never feels good should I should I hold on to it that's a much tougher decision so basically what I'm saying is if

you go in with the mindset of the rotation into alts being shortlived every time there's a pump at least you're going to fall Lo yourself to take profits I think another mindset shift that will help a lot of you and has helped me is also thinking of the market in terms of minic Cycles so instead of Thinking of one massive blowoff top like 2021 where you're just going to perfectly time the exit start thinking about it of Min Cycles Trump inauguration mini run sideways maybe even downturn another trigger macro trigger mini run and on each

of Those runs maybe a certain sector outperforms AI agents outperforms you know then at some point gaming AI outperforms I think AI will be a major major sector for the rest of the cycle But you know like meme coins at one point they really outperformed and playing those pockets of outperformance without waiting for this big savior of a pump that is just going to allow you to exit all of your altcoin bags that also probably forces you to hold a little less all coins for the longer term and have a bit more of a trading

mindset now now that doesn't mean when I say trading some people like oh but you can't chop in and out that's not a good strategy That's not what I'm saying I'm saying with certain altcoins instead of assuming you're going to hold them for a year tell yourself this is probably a good six-month hold but if this does really well over the next couple of months I'm at least going to secure profits on it or I'm willing I'm at least open willing if there's a better opportunity to trade out of it because what this stops you

from doing is bag holding things that aren't the most Optimal holds in the market there are lots of opportunities which are amazing right now but if you're holding alts which have been stagnant and aren't performing maybe they just won't perform this cycle now there's a fine balance between you know gting a coin that's actually got really strong fundamentals that you're holding long term for no reason and making a really considered rotation but you just need to be open to the idea of tweaking your portfolio when People are really stubborn and Resolute and not willing to

change their thesis based on new information I think that's where problems are created you can see the dot points here if you want to pause the video and read them even further but I think those are the main points being adaptive being open to making changes having a framework that allows for many cycles instead of one big cycle and taking profits when the market is pumping I think those are the most Important points to be honest it kind of surprises me that people think there's going to be a 2021 esque alt season season in the

first place considering the amount of allcoin dilution this cycle is insane like there is just so much new Supply coming into the market so even if there was the same amount of liquidity entering the market pound-for-pound versus 2021 the average pump per altcoin would obviously be less so the mean pump is Significantly lower than the aggregate amount of liquidity coming in this cycle even if it was the same as 2021 because there's a million extra all coins pump fun launchers are easier than ever there's more people trying to grift in the space than ever there's

more new launchers coming out than ever there's more narratives and narrative rotations than ever this makes the space much harder to navigate and subsequently reduces the overall pump especially on Mages which is probably why you won't see Mages going up 5 to 10x so in the last cycle you could look at something like a salana and go okay this is probably going to 5 to 10x now you can't do that it's going to be these spe specific sectors I think which experience those outsize returns and although everything might go up they it'll go up a

lot less so you need to be more selective with what you hold ellia replied to me and made a good comment he Said more liquidity and bigger per Al gets the claw basically saying that maybe liquidity isn't always dispersed maybe just select alts get a lot more liquidity and I would also agree with this I think it's going to be a mixture of both underperformance amongst Majors but Extreme outperformance on specific alts now obviously def ai ai agents rwa with Trump coming in utility alts these are the type of coins that I think could do

well even specific meme Coins because I don't think Cults in crypto are going away that's a very intrinsic part of crypto I'm going to speak about a few coins in general um specifically which I'm looking at right now but these are the types of narratives which are likely to experience that outperformance and if you're in the right assets at some point they'll probably end up having a period of outperformance which gives you you know your opportunities to take profits And capitalize a lot of the coins I've spoken about at some point have had those periods

of our performance where you have a chance to secure profits I think the big issue for most people and I'm not immune to this cuz I made some mistakes in December as well is not capitalizing when we have those runs because then what you can do is you know let's say you're in AI agents and they pump massively you can secure your profits take your initials out at least Then if the market drops you have some dry powder that you can re allocate to new stuff and you can keep kind of playing that game it's

not over rotating it's simply taking profits on the way up reallocating during downturns and making sure you're in the right assets at all time so how can you actually do this how can you approach your portfolio right now after everything that's happened one tweet which I really liked I think it's really really valuable I also saw this On R show yesterday is this tweet from Santiago R Santos he says when the market panics it exposes your flaws in your portfolio and investment framework the assets you may have chased the risk you may have overlooked they

become very apparent when the market dips but if after all of that you didn't Panic or found reasons to sell then lean it and load up the truck basically what he's saying here is if there were assets that during the Panic you still maintained Full conviction in maybe your conviction even grew because now the assets at a lower price these are the assets that you should be holding into the next part of the bull run these are the assets that you can even double down on and go heavier on because you've proved to yourself that

you have conviction conversely during the Panic if there were assets where you really were questioning that asset you were really questioning your conviction Then you probably shouldn't hold that asset into the next part of the bull run because it's a sign that you don't truly believe in it and if you don't truly believe in something there are so many amazing coins in this market there are so many opportunities why hold it why make life difficult for yourself so this is a very good framework when you're reviewing your portfolio and I suggest all of you do

this today go through your portfolio look at all of your coins just Look at each coin and go okay did my conviction waver yes or no did it waver yes or no and Mark each one and the ones where you had a lot of conviction maybe go heavier on your winners and then the ones that you didn't like your losers you can cut some of those positions it's never too late to consolidate in the market especially now we've gotten a bit of a relief bounce it's now now a bit more of an attractive time to

consolidate versus cutting stuff at the Lows I completely understand that psychology as well and I think this highlights a very important point you shouldn't be investing based on borrowed conviction so it doesn't matter whether I speak about a coin a friend tells you about a coin another Creator speaks about a coin your decisions have to be based on your own conviction now obviously being part of telegram groups Discord groups following content creators these are great ways to find Coins But ultimately you have to build out your own thesis and ask yourself does my theory on

a coin align with this creator for example I could suggest an amazing narrative like def AI I spoke about it on Sunday I said it's a narrative I have a lot of conviction in for these reasons these are my reasons and these are the coins now it's up to you to go and look into each one of those coins and work out whether the reasons I suggested are the Same reasons that you believe in and you might find flaws or you might find opportunities that I fade or I overlook so it's very important for any

content creator and any information source that you do your own research and build your own thesis otherwise you'll just get trampled during times of volatility it's really hard to hold on to coins if you don't have a real thesis and I suggest that in this next period of the bull run you Scrutinize every single coin even if I spoke about it or another Creator spoke about it really work out whether it's something you want to hold or trade and if you are trading it have those parameters in place for actually entering that trade I'm going

to discuss how you can do that in a second here and the show I said at the beginning I want to keep it as short as possible but there's a lot of Alpha and I've still got a lot of alpha to come so maybe We'll have to run it to the 50-minute mark but hopefully you're enjoying it and um yeah we haven't even gotten into the relative strength section where I'm going to show you some of the coins that actually look good coming out of this dip a mindset shift that will drastically change how you

approach in crypto think in bets probabilities are more important than Absolut so good outcomes don't always equal good decisions and bad outcomes don't always Equal bad decisions this is another mindset shift that will help you when evaluating new positions basically saying look over time the whole goal of crypto is to compound small repeated wins over time which eventually constitute one bigger win so by making repeated bets I have an edge I'm going to bet I have an edge I'm going to bet I have an edge I'm going to bet some you're going to lose maybe

even four out of 10 you're going to lose but If you can win six out of 10 or even if some of the pull huge multiples 5 out of 10 or 4 out of 10 if you keep making bets repeatedly where you have an edge eventually based on probabilities you're going to come out ahead in the end now this also means that sometimes you might make a decision which makes you a lot of money I'm going to bet on this coin oh I made a 10x just cuz you made a 10x didn't make it a

good decision it could have been a terrible risk reward trade At the time and you just got lucky similarly you could lose money on a trade and it still can be a good decision there's been coins where I've lost money but I haven't pointed out a flaw in my logic I'll State one of them lucky coin was one of them for me personally where I don't regret my decision to invest in that coin because I had a thesis the reasons that my thesis were invalidated I couldn't foresee at the time so at the time of

Making that bet I think it was a plus EV decision the issues reflecting back on it came later the lack of profit taking the lack of risk management being overly confident especially as the market was going up these were the flaws in the trade but the flaw wasn't in that early stage which is assigning a risk parameter for that trade to make sure it's a plus EV trade so I think it's very important Instead of thinking absolutes this coin will go up or this coin will go down think in probabilities probabilities are more important than

absolutes and your decision- making is the most important thing are you constantly making plus EV decisions over time eventually you'll make money generally speaking of course there are outliers any statistical sample size has outliers where people lose money and have made good bets that's just unlucky just like people Have made repeated bad decisions and made a lot of money that they're outliers lottery winners they're outliers people that hit 100x meme coin and sprayed and pray they're outliers right but all you can do in this market is do your best on every single trade and make

sure you are betting positively on every single trade in terms of expect value now as you enter a trade a very important concept which I might go further into in a future video but I Want to highlight here is actually having an invalidation for that trade so I think anytime you're entering an altcoin and please next time you buy an altcoin make sure you do this have a set of invalidations that aren't just fundamental but also technical so I'll give you an example let's say you're buying salana here right it's at support you think it's

a good buy on the dip cool you need to have an invalidation for this thesis now your invalidation Could be the 50% Zone on salana based on all-time highs which could be $140 you could set your invalidation here that's one if you're willing to be a little bit more loose with it but if you want to go with the tighter invalidation you could have said look two consecutive daily closes below the horizontal support I'm going to close my position so here and I'm going to re-enter on an official confirmation of strength or you can say

look the second let's say you bought ler Here right the second it breaks down the key daily or weekly moving average as you can see here which is constituted via this Gray Line the second it breaks down I'm going to cut some of my position which would have been here these are what I call technical invalidations now of course depending on the coin and your risk tolerance these are going to change but I just wanted to make the point today that when you're buying an altcoin have as well as a Takeprofit strategy have a technical

invalidation and write it down so every single time you bet on a coin have a spreadsheet or a notepad however you want to take the notes write down your invalidations and stick to them if you play the game like this it's very rare you're going to take massive draw Downs on a coin now it might mean you sometimes get stopped out on a trade before it ends up pumping but in that case there's another strategy which you Should Implement which is basically getting back in on a reclaim SO waiting for strength and not rushing so

what you could do is as solano's breaking down okay I'm going to cut my position and then when it flips the horizontal like this and also breaks back above the moving average which will look something like this then I'll get back in and I'll set a new invalidation okay maybe you miss out on a 10% move but at least then you're getting in on a confirmation of Strength and the odds are just based on the trend that there's going to be more upside there and then you can slowly take profits this can be applied to

smaller caps as well in fact having invalidations for smaller caps are just as important same with Ena Ena is an altcoin that I'm fundamentally bullish on this cycle but if you bought here at support you could say okay if we break down the moving average and the horizontal these are just two indicators There's more that you can use but keep it simple in today's video I'm going to drisk and then you would have drisk before the major dip then you have an opportunity to buy back in at 70 or wait for a reclaim another show

of strength I think generally speaking in the market a lot of you would be better off waiting for shows of strength across alt before bidding I'm not saying buy massive pumps but if an altcoin is chopping sideways like this instead of buying in as it's Chopping sideways because it can always break down lower actually get in once it starts to do this breaks out of a range you usually get a retest at some point and then bid the pullbacks so bid red days of an uptrend bidding red days of an uptrend is better than bidding

a coin that's just moving sideways sideways sideways or even worse bleeding cuz then you don't know if you're catching a knife it's better to wait for the Reversal and then get in on the dips generally speaking and the higher time frame you do this on so daily weekly monthly for the really big alts but usually daily or weekly you'll be better off from a long-term perspective and for smaller C alts or shorter term trades you can apply the same system to the 4 hourly and 1 hourly to actually get your entries now let's look at

some coins which are exhibiting relative strength I'll go through this quickly for the Sake of time cuz I know a lot of you're like asking me to Short my videos which I understand but I just had a lot to share today and still have a lot to share so let's go through this quickly it's a very good indicator when the market has a pullback based on what bounces first where the sentiment of the market is and if you look right now on the coins that pumped the most coming out of the dip the AI coins

grass a BT these are the type of coins that bounce The strongest from the top 100 fcoin like AI virtual obviously it pulled back a lot as well hype these are the coins that bounce the strongest why because they have the strongest narratives in the market if you look at the narrative performance as well over the past 24 hours defi AI is up 38% just like I told you on Sunday a few days ago this is a very hot Trend and this is going to continue to outperform in my opinion and then the secondary narrative

which is Out performing on the balce is AI agents up 15% so the market is showing you that when it pumps the agents and the AI plays run the most so for the next little period in the market I'm expecting this pocket of out performance to continue now an invalidation for this Theory could be if you go onto dex. like I am let's say over the weekly time frame or the daily time frame on bounces it starts to be the worst performer then if that happens for a couple days that's An indicator that the narrative

is fading and you can go a bit more technical with it and pair this with mind share data from Kao or cookie and piece together a bigger picture in terms of sentiment but often times price action tells you all you need to know about sentiment defy AI I won't go too much into this in today's video CU I did a full Deep dive a couple days ago video is still very relevant a lot of these coins look Extremely good hey anom which was one of my highest conviction U picks from this video was at $12

it's now sitting at1 19 almost $20 so from the time of making that video already it's up 64% uh but this is one that I think in my opinion could still have more upside if you want more info go watch that video cuz I go further into it but it's a good example of if you're in the right Trend in this market you can still make gains quite quickly especially on Bounces the one thing I'm going to say though about the AI meta is it's similar to memes in the sense that there are a lot

of new protocols coming out and because of this you have to remain adaptive willing to embrace a new thesis and also willing to add new coins to your portfolio and for that reason I don't think it's wise to over allocate so what a lot of people tend to do is oh I need to build an AI portfolio I need to fully allocate my $20,000 right now That's a mistake because in a week there could be a new trend like defy AI came out of the blue for me last week and then I realized oh this

is a massive opportunity so I started allocating if I was fully allocated to AI altcoins like fully fully fully then I wouldn't have the leeway to be able to add new stuff to my portfolio and I'd have to like cut positions to make room so generally speaking don't overallocated to these new trends or to the market at all save Room to research and bet on new thesis because the reality is especially in the Discord I'm posting new stuff all the time New Opportunities new trades new ideas new coins if I find any new uh and

I've actually have found a couple I'm going to be sharing one today if I find any new def AI plays or AI agent plays I'm going to be sharing the Discord first link in the description come join that can be a place for the latest Alpha for you guys but that's the reason I'm Not panicked in terms of fully being allocated to the market because there are these new opportunities that are coming as a result of the narratives that are outperforming in the market as I said those Min Cycles right there's massive opportunities there but

you need to have your finger on the pulse be quick to adapt and one of the ways you can do this is by not being fully allocated a couple of other coins that are showing a lot of relative strength Edge has been ridiculous uh this is an all coin that I spoke about in the Discord at a $17 million market cap it's now sitting at around a $60 million market cap so that's almost a 4X for us which has been amazing you can see this red circle here is when I first mentioned it mentioned it

on the YouTube a few times so that's been really good for us I mean the market has been shaky but uh having coins like this that are outperforming is obviously great for our Portfolios obviously a lot of stuff is bounced but what I'm looking at are things with relative strength not just coins that are bounced because everything's bounced what's bounced the most and Edge does stand out they obviously announced their partnership with Tinder uh which got a lot of people excited basically their super cloud service they can offer to Enterprise clients which basically help power

their application so basically what Tinder did Is they launched their year and swipe on edge so it's just one example of a use case for these big companies to actually utilize deepin deepin is going to be massive by the way in in the real world and I think we're already starting to see some of those collaborations come to fruition but we're going to see a lot more another coin that performed really well this is another example of strength is fcoin flipped and this is a good indicator for you the money noodle so The moving average

indicators on the 4H hour had a retest and has continued to perform well so that's another coin highlighting the strength of the AI sector and the last topic I wanted to touch on and we're probably going to have to do a more altcoin Focus video tomorrow focusing on narratives but the last strategy right now is dip buying yesterday in my Discord during the dip I highlighted a few coins Ena into the moving average hyper liquid into its Horizontal and AI 16z all of these coins are bouncing nicely so those have ended up being really nice

dip buyers for us but I wanted to talk a little bit more about dip buying strategy I would be careful about catching knives I think certain altcoins if they're at high time frame levels you can bid them as long as you have an invalidation for that for those trades as we discussed before the other option is simply just waiting for strength wait for CPI wait for Trump's Inauguration see how the market reacts and then on the first major flush or the first major pullback after that reaction you can look to position maybe you'll get in

a little bit higher than now but at least you'll have certainty whereas over allocating now you can be exposed to Market moves to the downside if there's continued volatility and I want to reiterate the point I made at the start of the video if you were Overexposed during the dip take some Profits now at least that solidifies your position in case there is more volatility cuz we don't know what's going to happen in the market in the short term obviously the longer you zoom out the higher probability you have of getting it right and I

think there's still much more upside in this market however in the short term anything can happen and you need to be able to not only survive these periods but embrace them and benefit from them from them and The only way you can do that is by having at least some sort of stable coin presence in your portfolio so if you were underrepresented now is a perfect time to fix it look I really enjoy this video guys I love uh diving deeper into the education I'm going to try and do a lot more of this on

the channel because I really eny it and I think it's it's valuable for you guys so if you did too leave a nice comment below let me know if you en enjoy this style of content I Know it's a bit longer but I could probably do shorter versions in the future just wanted to bring you a lot of alpha today uh in the Discord I'll be updating you guys with any new coins ads specifically from you know the defi agent sector because that is something I'm focusing a lot on and tomorrow in the show I'm

going to do a bit more of an altcoin Focus show I think as long as there's no major major major crazy stuff that comes out uh I'll probably be Uploading pre CPI so if there's a massive CPI shock I'll also do a probably a secondary shorter upload reacting to it later in the day but at least at the start of the day I'll um I'll get some outfit to you guys as usual see you then have a lovely rest of your day and peace out