Good day today is Saturday 1 uh 1st February 2025 and we've had as now regularly happens almost every other day more comments about the situation between Russia and the United States and about the Ukraine war from president Donald Trump and there's been some also some rather interesting comments from Donald Trump's peace Envoy General Kellogg let's go first of all to Donald Trump's Words now Donald Trump has a tendency which I remember from his first term to be extremely commun communicative he's obviously a very gregarious man um unlike his immediate predecessor Joe Biden who avoided all
possible contacts with the media who actually was greatly restricted in the number of contacts that he had um Trump regularly mixes and meets with people and talks and says all sorts of things and it's not always clear um quite how much weight one Should put on Trump's individual words now I don't want to give the impression that Trump doesn't know what he's saying which is absolutely not the case and it's also true that very often Trump does say very interesting things he was talking for for example about how there's been um a major Changing of
the Guard in the FBI lots of people in the FBI are being dismissed um he was asked questions about the fact that many of the inspector generals of the FBI are in The process of losing their jobs but he mentioned over the course of one of these gaggles that he had um about um various things that are taking place he mentioned that one of the FBI's inspector generals Michael horovitz will retain his job and um Trump mentioned that horovitz had done an outstanding report um back during the Russia gate controversy looking at the way which
James Comey the then director of the FBI had M handled the Hillary Clinton um Emails case and um I remember that report very well I remember a follow-up report that horovitz also did about um certain aspects of the way in which the Russia gate case itself had been handled it was interesting to me that Trump Not only was aware of those reports of Horror vits but was clearly very impressed by them he spoke about this in one of these gaggles and anyway he went out of his way to say that horovitz had done some of
the most outstanding Reports of all over the course of the uh Russia gate controversy and that he would retain his job now I consider that an important piece of information obviously it's something that I lived through myself and followed with great interest but it shows that Donald Trump does have a eye for detail is aware of an awful lot of that is going on says many things that are important and are very interesting and he also says an Awful lot of other things he made all kinds of jokes in another Gaggle for example about the
fact that foreign leaders used to telephone the White House whilst Trump's predecessor Joe Biden who Donald Trump again referred to as sleepy Joe was in charge and that people would tell these world leaders that um the president was currently detained but that he would call back in a week or two weeks time expect except that he never did well I don't know Whether that's true or not but it's all there in this really extraordinary freewheeling discussion that Donald Trump had again with the media people so one can't always know exactly how seriously to take all
of this sometimes as I said with a hor ofit comments I think one must take them very seriously indeed um they show as I said a President Who despite the fact that he as I said is rather florid in the way that he talks Actually is in charge and does control the detail at other times um we see another Trump one who is more interested in shaping the conversation perhaps the national conversation one also who likes to feed off the ideas and comments that people make around him but you mustn't necessarily assume that what you
are getting is the absolute literal factual truth now this brings me specifically to this issue this last series of comments That Donald Trump made because again he was asked more questions um about the air crash in Washington about the fact that um Russian passengers had been killed he was also asked all sorts of things things about contacts between the United States and Russia with respect to ending the war in Ukraine and Trump again said that he was expecting to have a call with Putin that he thinks that Putin is Keen on having this call that
um there are contacts underway between The United States and Russia he spoke about serious contacts being underway and that Trump expected that when the call came um Putin and Trump would discuss things and that there would be S significant outcomes from this now taken by themselves and you can find a report about Trump's words from Reuters if you don't want to spend time um going through all of the various remarks that Donald Trump makes which You can by the way find pretty much in I won't say their total entirety but a considerable length on the
White House's website you can find it as I said all in riters anyway taken by themselves these remarks of Donald Trump might suggest that there is indeed now serious diplomatic activity between the US government and the Russian government underway that the two sides are busy talking about the conflict in Ukraine that they've already reached some sort Of preliminary conclusions with each other and that a telephone call between Putin and Trump is just over the horizon and that the two men are going to speak and that we're going to get significant results as a result of
that call now that is what Donald Trump said yesterday Glenn dies and myself um had a um video a video chat with a senior Russian Diplomat um Ambassador pansi who is the Deputy head of the Russian Mission at the United Nations this is a very senior Russian Diplomat indeed and soon this video is going to be published um on the Duran on our Duran Channel now over the course of that discussion which bear in mind took place at roughly the same time that Trump was saying all of these things about all of these busy contacts
that are supposed to be happening between the Americans and the Russians over the course of this discussion um Ambassador poliansky who is you know speaking quite Openly I mean this isn't a you know an an anonymous briefing you can see the whole discussion anyway um Ambassador Polansky who I said is a very senior Russian Diplomat indeed he seemed to be completely unaware of any highlevel contacts between Russia and the United States at all he was absolutely open about the fact that he couldn't definitely say that there were no contacts that there were no contacts Between
the presidential Administration Putin's uh office in other words his own team in the crown Lin and the white house but certainly poliansky didn't know or appear to know anything much about it and I got very much the impression that Ani does not actually think that any intense highlevel contacts for the moment are are in fact taking place and I am going to express my own view I Think that is true I think that if high level contacts of some kind at the level of intensity that those stray remarks of Donald Trump might lead us to
think were taking place anyway if such contacts really were happening I personally find it very difficult to believe that the Russian diplomatic team at the UN the people who represent Russia at the UN Security Council which is the cockpit of international diplomacy the place where The superpowers um have the most usual and routine contacts with each other um a team where as I said some of Russia's most important and most experienced diplomats are to be found I find it very difficult to believe that those people wouldn't be in the loop and I'm going to say
something further I don't see why they would be kept out of the loop I would have thought that the Kremlin and the foreign Ministry people in Moscow would have no reason at all to deny this information to their team in New York on the contrary given that we're talking about high level contacts between the American and Russian governments I would have thought that the Kremlin would most definitely want their people in New New York at the UN Security Council where just to remember the Russians come up against the Americans regularly every single day When there
a security Council meetings when there are other meetings as well um it is underestimated I think by many people who do not follow International Affairs the extent to which New York is the center of international diplomacy and where it is in New York in the UN buildings that the main contacts between well governments happen anyway I cannot see what possible benefit there would be to the Kremlin or to the foreign Ministry to keep their people in New York uninformed if these contacts were taking place and um Ambassador pansi pointedly reminded Glenn dies and myself of
something further which is that the Russians currently do not have an ambassador in Washington the previous Ambassador um Ambassador OLG Antonov who headed the Embassy in Washington throughout the period of the Biden Administration and had to navigate and run things in the embassy during arguably the most challenging time anyway his term as Ambassador ended in I believe November um the word in Moscow is that the Russians immediately selected his replacement informed the Americans of who the replacement was but they're waiting for the US authorities to um approve of this replacement to confirm that the new
Ambassador will be accepted by the host government and will Receive proper diplomatic accreditation and for the moment there has been no movement on this at all the Americans have made no um response to the increasingly urgent requests from the Russians as to whether or not the Ambassador is indeed going to be approved and um Sergey rabu Deputy foreign minister one of the most senior people in the Russian foreign Ministry he has said that this is becoming a serious Issue because without an ambassador in overall charge the Russian Embassy in Washington isn't able to function fully
and without an ambassador um it's impossible to conduct an day today dialogue an intelligent day-to-day dialogue with the new authorities in the United States and the have said that you know we're not yet at the danger point when the absence of an ambassador threatens the entire viability of diplomatic contacts between Washington and Moscow but we are slowly drifting towards that point actually he said that we are rapidly drifting towards that point now whether the Americans are trying to make some kind of Point by delaying the accreditation of the you of the Russian Ambassador whether this
is part of some kind of psychological poker game one which I think the Russians themselves don't fully understand if that is the purpose I don't know but again the fact that There is no Russian Ambassador in Washington seems to me to make it unlikely that there are in fact extensive diplomatic contacts negotiations if you like underway between the Americans and the Russians um of the kind that Donald Trump was speaking about and certainly Ambassador Polansky when we spoke when Glen dies and I spoke with him seemed to think that the absence of a Russian Ambassador
In Washington made the establishment of that kind of dialogue all but impossible so again could it be that Donald Trump Trump is again signaling in some way in some complicated way to the Russians that he wants a dialogue to start but he wants the Russians to make the first call maybe that's what the purpose of all of this is um there may be an idea in Washington that this is the way to gain some kind of psychological advantage over the Russians or it could simply be that um the Americans still haven't worked out their plan
they have hav really thought through what exactly it is that they're going to do and so for the moment they're trading water and are continuing to Signal publicly their interest in dialogue with Moscow without however taking any very active steps for the moment to take it Forward by the way there are reports today that um Rick grenell who is uh Very much one of Donald Trump's people has been sent to Venezuela on some sort of Miss mission where presumably he will be speaking to Nicholas Maduro and this is coming apparently at the same time as
there are reports that a Russian government plane is flying to kakas in Venezuela and I was in number of people put two and two together and make 10 and say that some kind of secret discussion between the Russians and the Americans is going to take place in Kakas in Venezuela of all places I have to say that I think that is certainly wrong of all the places in the world which where the Russians and the Americans might meet I think the least likely for the Trump NE go the Trump team to choose as a venue
for top secret negotiations would be maduro's Venezuela given how Donald Trump and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are known to feel about Maduro my guess is that Rick grenell is going there to put pressure on Maduro to stand down that's been the pattern that we've seen for some weeks now and um as for the Russian plane flying to Caracus if it really does exist well I would have thought that was just another routine diplomatic flight anyway there we go we'll just have to wait and see what is going to happen but the other
person who has been speaking and has been saying some quite interesting things is Keith Kellogg General Keith Kellogg Trump's peace Envoy now this is all again very interesting because Kellogg arguably if there is a diplomatic initiative under way ought to be the pointman leading it um he is after all the peace Envoy um one would expect for example that he would be getting in touch with the authorities in Moscow on the US government's behalf he would be seeking meetings with senior you Russian officials to discuss whatever peace Initiative he has and perhaps to travel to
Moscow where he might have serious prospects of meeting with lavro and Putin I think if Kellogg were to go go to Moscow as an peace Envoy from Donald Trump there is a the real possibility that Putin and lavro would meet with him so far again that hasn't happened but hasn't stopped Kellogg from speaking now again Kellogg did say some very interesting things he said that he still wanted to try to end the war in some Form within a 100 days but he did seem to me to be a lot more qualified about that he did
seem to understand that this is a very complex conflict and that it might take a lot more than a 100 days importantly he said that it is in the US national interest for the war in Ukraine to end he said obviously it's in Russia's national interest for the war to end and it is in Ukraine's National interest in the war to end he reminded everybody Pointedly that Ukraine over over the course of this war has lost more men than the United States lost in the Korean and Vietnam Wars combined which by the way would mean
that Kellogg believes that Ukrainian losses and he means dead here are in excess of 100,000 and perhaps he's got information about this but anyway that is what Kellogg said that the ukrainians do have an interest in bringing the war to an end as of course according to Kellogg do The Russians as well but this is the first time to my knowledge that Kellogg straightforwardly said that ending the war in Ukraine is in the US national interest as well and for what it's worth I thought that he appeared to downplay the prospect of the Trump Administration
imposing further sanctions on Russia he said that it was not for him to decide whether or not the would be sanctions on the Russians this despite the fact by the way that in his Famous April 2024 article um the one that eventually led to him being appointed peace Envoy anyway in that article which he wrote with Fred flights um Kellogg did float the possibility of further sanctions against Russia but now Kellogg is saying that this is absolutely and exclusively up to Donald Trump himself to decide it's not for Kellogg to say one way or the
other now I have to say that um Kellogg's were words were or at least Came across to me as being rather conciliatory in the way that they are being addressed to the Russians and the same is true for of all of the words and comments we've been getting from the Trump Administration um over the last week ever since in fact that um ill judged comment on Truth social that Trump made about 10 days ago uh in which he appeared to threaten the Russians with Tariffs and sanctions and taxes and all those sort of things the
the overriding impression that the Americans are giving is that they do want to talk they do want to find some way to end the war in UK Ukraine importantly Kellogg again did not set out any ideas just as Marco Rubio in the um interview that he gave which I discussed yesterday was very careful to say that he was not going to Pre-negotiate the terms of the um piece um kogg is no longer doing that either the Americans seem to have accepted that coming to the Russians with pre-prepared plans ideas that they want to see implemented
is not the right approach that all that will lead to is the Russians turning down those proposals flat and the negotiations coming un stock the moment they begin anyway we will see it it is all difficult To judge exactly what is happening but I do wonder whether this latest flurry of comments from Kellogg might be a sign that someone in Washington is finally about to give him instructions to start making positive diplomatic moves and maybe we will start to see him flying to Moscow in the next couple of days when to be clear his primary
purpose will be to reestablish dialogue with the Russians and to set up the situ the conditions for the call Between Trump and Putin finally to happen and for the two men to move forward towards some proper meeting with each other anyway let's see now of course Trump is talking about other things as well and what he's talking about is very interesting as well now he has been saying an awful lot about tariffs um again on one of those press gaggles that I spoke about Trump reminded everybody that between about 1870 in 1913 the glory years
as he sees them of the US economy the period when the US economy achieved its most rapid growth and established itself as the world's leading economy he's right about that by the way in historical terms he's perfectly correct it is this period from after the end of the US Civil War until the first world war it's that period which is indeed the period when the United States did establish itself as the world's single most important Economic Center anyway he reminded everybody that during this period the United States did not have a federal income tax um
that the US government's funds were entirely financed through tariffs and the result was very rapid economic growth and that um Trump believes that that is is the way forward for the United States again that it should return to that kind of approach to in effect the E American system as it was described by economists Like the German friedi list at that particular time a continental self-sufficient rapidly industrializing economy with low taxes but High tariffs with industri is able to develop under protective tariff behind protective tariff walls but with free markets functioning freely within those tariff
walls and with steps taken eventually to prevent monopolization and to break up cartels And trusts that's the world that Trump looks back to as the optimal period of US economic policy and well Trump returns to this again and again the load star for him being still the uh presidency the uh presidency of William McKinley in the 1890s the period just before the United States embarked on its vast program of territorial expansion McKinley being somebody who was not keen For example on the Spanish American War which played out during his presidency just say anyway um the
point is that all of this you one can argue and argue about the the logic or the merits of all of this but anyway Trump See Clearly seems to believe this and he has now confirmed that the administration is indeed going to start to move towards imposing tariffs 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico 10% tariffs against China more tariffs Against the Europeans a fundamental change in US economic policy re uh reversing the entire economic direction that the United States has been taking ever since the second world war if we go back to the Breton Woods
conference to the various changes that happened to the radical changes in economic approach that began in the 1960s under JFK the the consistent trend is for the United States to ease off credit uh tariff barriers to increase Federal rates of income tax to um seek liberalization of World Trade wherever that is possible all of this of course evolved into what was called the Washington system in the 1990s where the United States sought complet completely free movement of capital and goods wherever possible with the expectation that capital and goods Would flow into the United States just
saying anyway Donald Trump wants to take that and to reverse it completely and the tariffs against Mexico and Canada and perhaps China are apparently now just weeks away so this is hugely cont consequential it's perhaps more important to Trump than almost anything else at this time apart possibly from the ongoing massive Purge that continues to Work its way through the federal bureaucracy every day one gets words of more and more people from more and more departments um getting sacked and dismissed or suspended or subjected to investigations and that kind of thing the entire federal government
is being rebuilt the whole of American economic policy is being rethought and recast and perhaps it's not surprising that given all that the president and his team have not Yet had time to work out a full diplomatic strategy on how to approach the end of the Ukraine conflict though they have now clearly signaled that they want the conflict to end and some kind of Aro with Russia or at least normalization of relations with Russia to take place and of course I spoke yesterday about um Marco Rubio's interview and how he Seemed to be if he
didn't seem to be he clearly stated that the era of the unipolar moment has ended that the United States now sees itself as one great power in a world of competing great powers the multi-polar world has begun so we'll see where we go but I'm going to suggest if I can forgive some words of advice I think it would be a good idea for the us to just Agree to the appointment of the Russian Ambassador I know who it is by the way that the Russians have proposed you can find the name of this person
in the Russian media there's no secret about this and he seems to be an extremely professional and experienced Diplomat who speaks English and knows the United States very well anyway I think they should just agree to have him appointed and I think they should send Kellogg to Moscow that should be the first order of business once the Ambassador arrives and then we can finally get some kind of proper Di between the US and America and Russian governments underway now I want to go back briefly before I continue to the program that Glenn De and myself
did with Ambassador polyansky and over the course of that interview Ambassador polyansky said something else which I thought was very Interesting and very important so by the way did Glenn dies after the program had ended Glenn dies and I discussed it with each other now over the course of that video Ambassador polyansky said that in terms of the conflict in Ukraine in terms of establishing a dialogue in order to try and find some way towards peace in in Ukraine and ultimately Europe or Western Eurasia as the Russians now increasingly prefer to Say the best way
forward would be for the parties that talk to be the Americans and the Russians alone the Europeans as well as the ukrainians should be kept completely away now I want to make things something absolutely clear here um I was involved obviously in the making of that program it was absolutely clear to me that Ambassador pansi was stating his own personal opinion he was not Speaking um for the Russian government he was not expressing Russian government government policy he was stating his own private preference but he is nonetheless a very senior Russian Diplomat and I suspect
that this opinion that he has that there should be exclusively dialogue between the Americans and the Russians on Ukrainian issues reflects very much the opinion in Moscow I think most people in Russia Within the Russian government feels that the only way that that discussion can take place and can take place successfully is if the ukrainians and the Europeans are kept out of it and Ambassador pansy expressed himself in very strong terms about the Europeans he said it was absolutely clear that they had lost all agency over the course of this conflict that they hardly counted
any longer as Serious negotiating a serious negotiating party but of course the main concern that Russian diplomats are going to have is that the EUR ukrainians are clearly for the moment unreconciled to any serious peace any peace that would come remotely close to satisfying Russian conditions and that the same is true about the Europeans Also now I say that there's just been another article I in the I believe it is the US media saying that there's now a split in Europe between the British and the French on the one hand who want to send a
huge force of peacekeepers to Ukraine to try to enforce peace in Ukraine once the um ceasefire that they're still thinking about comes into effect and other European governments which for this purpose include the Germans who are Telling the British and the French you must have taken leave of your senses this makes absolutely no sense there is no conceivable way that we're going to send armies of peacekeepers to Ukraine quite apart from the fact that the Russians would never agree the European public would never agree we could not even think of going to Ukraine unless we
got absolutely Ironclad guarantee from the ukra from the Americans to protect our people if they did go to Ukraine and found themselves in a tangle with the Russians and Donald Trump is never going to give that guarantee so why are you even bringing this whole topic up and interestingly it looks as if some of the East European States po Poland for example are opposing to this idea of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine they're saying what on Earth are you talking about why send your troops to Ukraine of all places where they are meat on the Plate
for the Russian military to carve up and devour you we need these troops in Poland and in Eastern Europe not close to the Ukrainian battlefields where the Russians can obliterate them because it's in Poland and in those places that the new front lines after the war are going to take shape now obviously on this I am on the side of those people in Europe who are Opposed to sending peacekeepers to Ukraine the point is I am absolutely bewildered that this discussion is even taking place still um the fact that starma and macron are still plugging
this idea shows how completely detached from the realities they still are and how completely unre reconciled they are to the inevitable outcome of the Ukraine war which is a Russian Victory when you are dealing with people Who are so completely detached from reality who are so wholly intransigent in their approach to the war you absolutely do not want to involve them or so it seems to me in negoti ation um which they would not believe in and which they would be certain ultimately to wreck by making demands of the other side of the Russians which
the Russians inevitably are going to reject now here I I do want to make one quick observation about Kama because I've been on the receiving end of a number of comments about st's 100-year agreement with Ukraine all sorts of people have been coming to me and they've been telling me that it's inconceivable that starma is so completely detached from reality that the 100-year treaty really doesn't mean anything that the fact that starm signed It at all and that he did so for a period of 100 years shows that he doesn't expect Ukraine to survive a
year let alone 100 years and that this is all part of some kind of complicated mellian game that K starma and his government are playing though the purpose and objective of that game is one that nobody seems to agree What It Is Well I followed Karma very closely in WR and I'm going to say this about him say what you will about Starm what you see is what you get I think that if he signed a 100-year agreement with Ukraine he did so because he sincerely believes that this is a meaningful and real document he
might be the only person on planet Earth who thinks that way but he probably almost certainly does think it I think that he remains as committed to project Ukraine as he says I think this is true of the British establishment as a whole by the way and I think that not only do The British take this bizarre treaty or agreement or whatever it is perfectly seriously but the fact that that they have signed a treaty like that is a compelling reason to keep them far away from any negotiations that at least is my view now
if we come back to Europe it may be that over the next couple of months things will change Emanuel macron in France has now Apparently plumped the lowest depths of his popularity since he became president of the Republic he did some kind of bizarre video which I haven't watched and don't intend to watch which was apparently intended to rehabilitate himself in the eyes of the French people predictably it had the exact opposite effect there's very great uncertain certainty about the stability of the new French government headed by m b that president macron is trying to
Form it seems to me that there is at least a possibility that we could be seeing new elections in France at some point within the next few months I mean presidential elections with macron finally put in a position of checkmate where he is forced to step down and well I'm going to say I think if such elections do take place the probability is that we will have president lepen or perhaps if not president Leen a president from the ass National and it is likely the French foreign policy will change in fact I would be astonished
if in that case didn't and in Germany I have just seen the results of a private opinion poll um showing the apparent strength polling rating of the parties three weeks before the federal elections in Germany take place on the 23rd of February now I don't want to disclose the results of this Appo because I believe that so far it is a Private poll I expect that it will be published shortly and of course it is only one poll and um they they may be it may be wrong it may be that other opinion polls um
will show a different rankings for the parties and as I said we still anyway got three weeks to go and the rankings that I saw in this poll um could change in all sorts of ways between now and the election on the 23rd but having said all of That if the results of this opinion poll were really eyering if they are true if if they the figure that is given for support for the IFD and the figure that is given for the CDU CSU the party the you the block which is supposed to emerge from
the elections as the leading the biggest force in the B bundist if these polling figures are true then all I can say is that Germany is in for an electoral shock of A Sort that I'm going to Suggest is going to put the entire Prospect of Germany continuing with project Ukraine continuing its support for project Ukraine in immediate and critical question that's all I'm going to say now we have some telltale signs in Germany that the trends are indeed in this direction we saw this extraordinary diplomatic maneuver that the fredi matz the leader of the
CDU CSU just tried to carry out Um in which he tried to get a vote an anti-immigrant vote part through the Bund St advisory vote by the way this is purely theater and had to rely on the IFD for support roundly criticized by Angela Merkel by the SBD and the political establishment in Germany by the German churches by much of the media there's uncertainty uncertainty at the moment about whether M's maneuver has benefited him is this opinion poll is correct by the way then it seems not That it's reinforced views uh which I have that
mats is starting to panic and is starting to take make Reckless steps which are giving German voters a sense that he's starting to panic anyway the this strange parliamentary maneuver by mats might be a sign that the results of this private opinion poll that I have seen may be correct but there's been another one today which is That the German defense minister Boris Pistorius member of the SBD rival of Olaf Schultz a man who has projected himself very much as a pro-ukraine hardliner um an advocate of increased defense spending anyway he has come out publicly
and has spoken out against Germany seeking to allocate 5% of its GDP to defend spending um Pistoria said that this is Unaffordable that it would use up 42% of Germany's budget um and that this is simply not something that Germany can realistically do and again I can't help but feel that this is a kind of a mission that signals the extent to which the political landscape in Germany is Shifting so it could be that in a few months time if we do have elections in France and after the elections in Germany the political landscape in
Europe will have changed sufficiently far that it might become possible for the Americans to start Consulting with their European allies who could finally be led by more realistic and rational governments and that this might facilitate the process of negotiations with the Russians but unless and until that happens I'm going to say it I agree with Ambassador po hansky I think that if one wants to move Forward for the moment with negotiations to try and find some way out of this crisis in Ukraine some way that the United States can extricate itself from Ukraine um whilst
preserving its core interests in Europe and limiting the geopolitical damage that comes from Russia's Victory well if this is going to happen then it can only be done for the moment With zalinski and the Europeans kept firmly away at arms length just to get a sense of how difficult it is to do anything with the ukrainians at the moment we've just had another speech from a Ukrainian representative at the pace meeting this is the Parliamentary assembly of the Council of Europe just to say not an EU body but a paneuropean body but one from which
Russia has been excluded from all participation and which the Russians have made clear they no longer want to be involved in anyway anyway a Ukrainian representative came along to pace and said quite publicly and openly that it would be an excellent thing and a wonderful idea if the West could arrange to have President Putin assassinated that this is something that the West should embrace rather than Avoid assassinating the leader of the world's biggest nuclear power well this is not so far provoked any strong reaction from um Europe none of the big European leaders have said
this is crazy this is irresponsible we cannot in any way be involved in this kind of thing there's Been no demands from zalinski to repudiate the words of this parliamentarian um there's been no pullback in Ukraine itself zinsky has not come out and said that this individual was talking out of line and that this isn't zelinsky's policy or that of Ukraine it'd be very difficult by the way if the ukrainians said that that was not their intention to take it Ser to take them seriously it is now Universally acknowledged that the ukrainians have indeed conducted
a assassinations inside Russia few weeks ago they assassinated the military commander of Russia's nuclear biological and chemical warfare troops just say and a couple of months ago no less a person than kirilo budanov Ukraine's Military Intelligence Chief openly acknowledged that the ukrainians have made several attempts s to assassinate Putin though up to now Unfortunately obviously these assassination attempts have been unsuccessful so if zalinski did deny what this Ukrainian parliamentarian said I don't think many people would take his denial seriously but the fact is there hasn't even been a denial there's been no repudiation of this
comment and can one seriously honestly feel that a government the talks in that kind of fashion is really a government that can Participate in negotiations now there is something else which has happened or at least has been alleged over the last couple of we days weeks in fact that might also mean that it would be a good idea to keep Ukraine at least as far from negotiations as possible not a new idea by the way um in responsible statecraft anatol Len has already said that given the kind Of stance that the ukrainians are taking it
might be better to keep them at arms length but the Russians over the last few weeks have stepped up that claim about what war crimes committed by the Ukrainian Army theyve made allegations of that kind about the murder of civilians in celo this is of course a donbass city south of pakros that the Russians captured a few weeks ago um the Russians put together a Dossier putting these allegations in one place they arranged for an informal meeting of the security Council which this dossier was presented and over the course of the program we did with
him um Ambassador pansi mentioned that the American representative on the security Council who's a career Diplomat not so far um a senior official um gave a rather muted response which surprised the Russians to these uh to These Russian claims um the American representative did not do that which the Americans often do which is very dly deny the claims and accuse the Russians of committing aggression and that kind of thing anyway the Russians have made allegations about Ukrainian war crimes in selal and they're now making similar allegations about Ukrainian war crimes in kusk region against Russian
Civilians specifically in the village of rusaya P now a couple of days ago about week ago on the Duran Alex and christophor and I um had an interview with Patrick Lancaster Intrepid reporter and he has of course been to rusaya paret he's one of the as far as I know he's the only Western reporter to visit the town and and he did report some very troubling things You can go to the video and you can see what he said and bear in mind these were eyewitness this is reports that um Patrick laner made as an
eyewitness I absolutely no doubt about their accuracy um he was very very careful and very properly not to jump to any conclusions and nor do I but we certainly did agree that there is a serious issue which requires investigation well the Russians have now Undertaken an investigation and they are making claims and they are by the way identifying suspects um who they say are members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces now I am not going to judge this because as I said I am not there and with these kind of allegations S I always take the
line that they need to be examined and reviewed by impartial thirdparty agencies which sadly in war situations almost never happens but given that these allegations Are now circulating and they're getting make getting considerable traction inside Russia it might also be best given that the ukrainians have openly admitted that they've conducted assassinations inside Russia it might be best if the ukrainians in any negotiations are indeed as Ambassador Polansky says kept at arms length anyway there we are um I ought to say obviously that when the negotiation Come to some kind of an outcome if there is
an agreement about Ukraine then Ukraine will have to be consulted and will have its word and can say yes or no as the situation dictates but I cannot see why in the meantime the Americans and the Russians cannot talk to each other as I have said previously the bid administ ation Mantra uh nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine is Impossible it gives the KF authorities a veto over American diplomacy which in my opinion is straightforwardly absurd it is ludicrous that a superpower like the United States should should be tied down by its proxy in that sort
of way anyway we will see whether negotiations happen we will see what happens over the next the coming days and weeks but meanwhile the war goes on and I said Yesterday that the war in Ukraine is now intensifying that after the fall of Alika novas Silka we'd have this brief period of Thor which had made transformed the landscape into mud the ground has hardened again the skies have cleared which makes it easier for the Air Force the Russian Air Force to operate and the Russians are back on the attack and the overall commander of the
Russian forces General gassim Has also been on the move he has visited the front lines he's met with some of the senior commanders he's handed out decorations he's attended the headquarters of the Russian army Group which recently captured velika Nova Silka and it is a reasonable guess that whilst he was there he discussed with them the operational plans that they will now be expected to follow after Vila yanova Silka has been captured and most people believe that the Russian Military grouping in V at noila will probably turn to towards the Southwest seeking the encirclement and
eventual capture of the important zapor roia town of G a town with an important role by the way in um Russian 20th century history especially during the Civil War the Russian Civil War of the 1920s but I'm not going to go into those sort of details and um of course if Gia and the Nearby town of orov fall that opens the road for the Russians to advance towards the great city of zapor roia on the Nea uh a city which it's important to remember is the capital of zapor Roi region and which the Russians therefore
claim to be Russian not Ukrainian at all anyway elsewhere the Russians have also been incredibly busy over the course of last night they conducted a massive missile offensive against Ukraine now so far as I can tell this does not seem to have been conducted using um air launched cruise missiles the Russians have been busy um expanding production of their ground launched ballistic missiles the isand the M missiles about two weeks ago I said that alongside the oresnik I'd received reports that the Russians were in the late stages of developing and putting into production another long
range missile one which would be Equipped with some kind of thermobaric Warhead and sure enough over the last couple of hours there's been reports that precisely that kind of a missile another member of the isander family apparently is about to enter production it has doubled the range of the current escondas and well there is no word that it carries a thermobaric warhead but if the physical limits involving such Warheads can be sorted out why not just saying anyway um it Looks as if the Russians now are in increasingly using these missiles which of course for
all we know might be supplemented by North Korean missiles there's been many reports about this but anyway the Russians last night conducted a major missile strike across Ukraine using ballistic missiles and it's believed that the Ukrainian energy complex the gas distribution system um command positions in Adessa um a hotel in adessa the Bristol Hotel in adessa which might been used for all sorts of purposes which we don't know anyway all of those were targeted by the Russians over the course of yesterday again the contrast between these enormously powerful Russian strikes with ballistic missiles or air
launched missiles and of course very powerful drones and the pin prick attacks that the ukrainians conduct with their drones Against Russia the contrast is extraordinary anyway there we are meanwhile the Russians continue their advance and yesterday I mentioned that it looks as if the Russians are in the bit in the process of completing the drr C of Ukraine's kurakov group this was the group of brigades tasked with defending kurakov and the area around it is now withdrawn to a cluster of fortified Villages D Andrea rley rosev Constantinople there's been many reports over the last 24
hours of major Russian advances in this direction there's also been many reports that the Russians have now uh resumed their offensive around toret that the various pin prick attacks that the ukrainians carried out around toret have now all been rebuffed the last few hours just before this program I started making this program the Russian defense Ministry Confirmed that the village of kimski which is located to the north east of toret adjoining the toet coal mine has now passed fully under Russian control it looks as if the Russians have now decided that the moment has come
to finally wrap up toret entirely probably there was some kind of troop rotation the Russians withdrew some of the brigades that had been fighting into T probably over the last few months uh whilst the rotation was underway the Ukrainians used the opportunity to carry out some raids on Northern toret but that now looks as if it's conclusively over and elsewhere there are reports that the Battle of chasia has taken a decisive turn rol the Russian newspaper has had a detailed discussion of this they say that the ukrainians trying to hold on to their remaining positions
in central toret near the industrial Zone which has Passed under Russian control have been obliged to weaken tet's uh Chas ofa's flanks they've been obliged to redirect troops from the flank to try to hold their positions their remaining positions in the center of CH ofia that doing so has enabled the Russians to fold the flanks so that the Ukrainian grouping in ch of now limited to a small area of the town is at serious risk of in Circulan and it seems that there's more mopping up operations going on in another railway station in the Chua
area I gather there's several Railway stations around Chua this being an area where Railway stations sort of come together so this battle at Jia is going very badly further north um the there's been more reports of a major expansion over of the Russian Bridge head on the West Bank of the oscal river um the Russians captured um a Major well a small town in this area a couple of days ago they've now apparently captured another important Village the area of the bridge head has become significant it seems that armored vehicles are now able to cross
on pontoon Bridge es across the Oscar River it looks as if a major fist armored fist has been created by the Russians and again the big question is what do the Russians intend to do with it do they intend to move north to defeat to take The ukrainians still holding out in volchansk where group of forces North say that Russian raiding parties are now regularly Crossing the vulture River from the north of volans into the South and where the ukrainians have been now largely pushed out of Northern volans do the Russians aim to attack the
ukrainians in the rear in Vol Chance by pressing North from this bridge that they've established on the West Bank of the Oscar River or are they as must I would have thought be more likely are the Russians going to Swerve South en circling and finally capturing kin and launching an offensive to retake eum and balaca the places in har region that the Russians seeded to the ukrainians in the Autumn of 2022 we are very close to the point probably in the spring maybe after the raspu season it's very likely that the Russians will launch an
offensive in that direction as well in some ways the most dramatic news is coming from kosk region and here I would quickly say that again perhaps as a product of the new Administration in Washington the great narrative about the mighty North Korean army being deployed to coast region well that is now melting away there's been an article in the New York Times which says that After Experiencing heavy though it must be said invisible losses the you North Korean force in kque region which has been mostly invisible as well has been withdrawn from Kos region by
the North Korean command um so apparently after weeks and months have been told about how there is this Mighty North Korean force in Kos it looks as if there is no longer any North Korean Force in kusk I I I have to say this whole story of the North Korean soldiers in kusk is not just an astonishing exercise in cynicism and absurdity it really is a shameful testimony to the way in which the media the mainstream media in the west has handled the Ukrainian story that a story that has been so completely lacking in substantiation
has been accepted as true and has been endlessly recycled and Repeated as if it was true um the ukrainians have various times claimed that they've tried to capture North Korean soldiers they provided all kinds of pictures and photographs none of which have stood up to much EX uh uh serious examination um claiming that this provides evidence of North Korean soldiers um the very fact that there's been issues about many of these photographs ought to have been a good Reason to doubt this story The ukrainians have then said that um they did capture some North Korean
soldiers but these soldiers died almost immediately then we were told that two North Korean soldiers have been captured alive and are in Ukrainian captivity and now we've heard for some time nothing more about them apparently the South Koreans tried to access these people but they weren't able to supposedly because these two North Korean soldiers refused to defect this Phantom Army of North Koreans in co co region has now essentially vanished Into The cusk Mists which probably tells what one needs to know about its fundamental fictitiousness and unreality anyway putting all aside the story about the
North Korean soldiers And remember that story had consequences the Biden Administration in November pretended that they had decided that they'd revers policy and decided to authorize missile strikes inside Russia using attack's missiles as a counter to the presence of North Korean troops in Kos region and now as I said you're told that these North Korean soldiers have all gone anyway putting all that to one side the Situation in suja in kusk for the ukrainians is becoming increasingly disastrous it seems that the Russians after a lot of battles south of suja have indeed captured the village
of mova which is lies immediately to the south of suja there are reports that their process of capturing another Village MOA which lies immediately on the southern boundary of sua there are reports that the Russians having captured rusaya porno where the War crimes are supposed to have been committed are now in the process of capturing and that they've also re-entered Martina on the main road to K region and that they are in the process of stor inovo which lies to the um to the north west of suja not that far from the main road between
suja and Sumi region the only road that the Ukrainian forces in kosk region can use for their supplies and it's increasingly looking As at the fighting in kosk region is starting to spill over into Kos into T Sumi region in Ukraine as well not only are the Russians launching missile strikes and bombing strikes now regularly on Ukrainian troops in Sumi region but increasingly fpv drones are being used inside Sumi region to attack Ukrainian positions which given that fpv drones have limited range suggests that there Is no significant Russian military presence inside Sumi region participating in
this battle which is of course the greater P battle for kusk region as well well all of this is disastrous but of course it all comes in conjunction with the information about the Ukrainian Army melting away now I've had informations a a this comes from a Russian media Outlet so you don't have to accept it if you don't want to but it's a compilation which I believe is True anyway it sets out the extent of the desertion crisis it gives some indications about the extent of the desertion crisis that is now affecting Ukraine it says
that the 57th Brigade this is a new Reserve Brigade created in 2024 ceased to exist in 2025 with onethird of its soldiers deserting before becoming operational it says that the elite 155th Anna of Kia Brigade this is the French trained Brigade saw at least 1,700 of its 2,300 soldiers deserve before reaching the front lines now that is absolutely true it's been confirmed by Ukrainian sources including by the Ukrainian commentator Yuri buus um it goes on to say that over 10% of the 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers sent to Poland for training fled the country it said that
desertion is occur occurring in both large and small groups with 22 soldiers from the 71st separate Jager Brigade deserting in just one week in December 2024 the media outlet and goes on to say that deserters are even charging to assist others escape with one man arrested for smuggling soldiers out for €7,000 each then there's a a quote attributed to to General Sergey kenos General is a celebrated Ukrainian army officer he's a Critic of President zinis so for that reason he has had no active role in the Ukrainian Army since the start of The special military
operation but he's become an incisive and very very critical um commentator within Ukraine about the conduct of the war anyway he's says apparently that for every 100 mobilized soldiers only 10 reach the front presumably the others desert another Ukrainian activist genady dreno apparently has estimated that there's a an estimate that there's an Estimate of 150,000 deserters and um a Ukrainian parliamentarian Anna scod also estimates that there's over 100 there were over 100,000 deserters by October 2024 and a Ukrainian commissioner Olga rashidova has stated that the problem is big and people are exhausted by the way
I've also seen a report saying that Ukrainian Soldier on the front lines are speaking out against the proposal to enlist 18 to 25 year olds they're saying that these young men would lack morale and would have limited training and would not really be effective on the battlefronts which is an interesting Revelation but anyway the point is that the Ukrainian Army is melting away even as the Russians are landing ever heavier Punches and as we see in kurakov and by the way in chasar and as before long we're going to see I suspect north of the
uh on the west of the Oscar River and in Kos region for the moment the Russian objective continues to be the destruction of Ukraine's forces Armed Forces on the battlefronts but we're coming very close perhaps a couple of months as the Russian defense Ministry said yesterday to that moment when the cascading collapse becomes so bad that the entire front line will disintegrate and at that moment following the logic of the Russian Soviet doctrine of deep battle developed all the way back in the 1930s by people like the Russian military theorist um trianda at that point
we could start to See movements on the battlefronts of a speed that we have not seen at any time previously in this war so to repeat again there isn't a huge amount of time left if negotiations to rescue Ukraine are going to take place at all whether those negotiations anyway are going to get very far whether the Russians at this point in the War are really even interested in Negotiations that remains to be seen but it's important to remember always that all of these discussions about negotiations are not being conducted in the abstract the war
goes on and with every day Ukraine's defeat becomes comes close closer and its scale gets worse well this is where I finish today's program let me remind you again you can find all our programs on our Various platforms locals Rumble and X you can support our work VI patreon And subscribe star and by going to our shop links under this video If you lik this video please remember to take the like button and to check your subscription to this Channel and well thank you again and there'll be more from me soon and until then have
a very good day [Music]
