[Music] this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keane and Pa swed we're addicted to The Parlor game the fed the monetary ballet where do you see opportunities in a fixed income space here in 24 with Lisa Mato on markets AI affecting demand for cloud computing and Michael bar with news another legal setback for Donald Trump this time across the pond the best in economics Finance investment and International relations this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Radio good morning everyone Paul swy Tom Kean Michael bar Leisa mat tail there's no debate the Jets lost the the Jets lost
I'm sorry we tried he's on he's on assignment you know who's out there chair I I could see him I could hear him we was out there the game was over that debate's over 49ers forever we say good morning to you on this debate uh uh day we'll go to Philadelphia here in a moment David gerl will be with us as well on the markets waiting for CPI at tomorrow you know all of a sudden CPI matters because there's this gauze of disinflation there driving every analysis exactly we're at CPI tomorrow Tom and I think
everybody's kind of thinking about 0.2% is month to month and you want to an annualize that ex food and energy 3.2% that seems okay but it's not you know kind of where the FED wants it to Be so we'll see what they do with there uh on September 18th get right to it here on Monday morning good morning 991 FM Washington our Flagship good morning New York perfect weather perfect and it's shocking this time of year yep gorgeous and gets actually warmer here through the week 1130 a.m. in New York good morning 929 FM in
Boston okay if the red we got to do it right now Lisa you're gonna have to wait if the Red Sox keep on keeping on yep and the Mets are The best team in baseball right now lose do we get an 86 Redux good can we start modeling out Red Sox Mets we'll be doing some remotes from City Field if that Happ a little premature the Interactive Broker Studios of Bloomberg business flash Lisa you got it and Futures right now we're in the red and this is after all three major indexes kicked off the new
trading week with gains of at least 1% we have Nasdaq futures down about a tenth of a percent 26 points Dow futures Little change down 28 points S&P futures little change down about a point we have the two-year yield 3.68% that's uh up one basis point they yield on the 10e 3.72% and that's up one basis point to commodities uh we'll start with oil Brent crude $71 a barrel WTI Crude $68 a barrel now meanwhile Chevron joined Exxon and shell shutting some wells ahead of tropical storm Francine we head over to news shares of Apple
and Google They're lower to little change both companies lose key EU Court decisions European Regulators are cracking down on tech companies we have Apple down 1% Google little change and finally the FTC battling tapestries acquisition of rival Capri yesterday the CEO of Capri told a judge hopeful the planned $8.5 billion acquisition will Revitalize its Flagship Michael K's brand and also deliver some return for investors we have tapestry up 1% C are is little changed that is your Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul tapestry what what happened at coach yeah every time she says that I
want to go so far away tapestry it's coach coach I had the little thin red belt David ger wouldn't be caught dead in this this is like 40 something years ago solid handmade in Soo it was like the coolest thing to have a coach belt Handmade by cobblers in SoHo far away joining us right now from Philadelphia he will have a long Day and night of it David gura uh driving forward our debate coverage David uh set the scene of the room where the former president and the present vice president will be in what will
that room feel like sound like be like it'll have a lot of the sterility of the debate that the candidates will be in the National Constitution Center alone there'll be no audience a few pool photographers and reporters will will be there but uh the Press filing Center in The spin room Tom uh several blocks away at the convention center here in in Philadelphia so there'll be some remove and I think that takes away a lot of the energy and and excitement we might have had in past debates but two podiums on stage there was a
coin toss former president Trump has elected to go last he'll have the final word he'll give the the closing statement during the debate tonight but uh much like the last one uh a level of sterility and kind of quiet For these candidates two moderators David Mir of ABC News and Lindsey Davis his colleague can they cut each other off can they engage in conversation they can do it with the mics off so this was a hard thought issue over these last few weeks would there be muted mics as there was in Atlanta uh and indeed
the the the the Trump campaign won out here there will be muted mics that doesn't stop each candidate from trying to bait the other To get him or her to say something get him or her off his game but the mics will not be on and I think that that's going to be interesting to watch here because if you think back of the last major debate that vice president Harris had with vice president Pence um there were these moments when she told him to stop interrupting said I'm speaking those caught fire we're not going to
have those kind of AUD we would have had past these past debates Paul it's simple Have we taken the debate out of the debate it's feels like it so David what's it feels like for vice president Harris this is a really really big day for her because most of America doesn't know her as well as we all know Donald Trump yeah you're ceasing on something very important here that last major poll the New York Times Sienna College poll highlighted the fact that more than a quarter of respondents feel like they don't know who she is
or what she stands For um this is the first debate between these two candidates and perhaps the only one the only one that's on the calendar right now so it is a crucial a pivotal moment for her to introduce herself to Americans who again don't feel like they know her what she stands for what she wants to do on a very major stage I think there'll be a lot of eyes on the debate tonight but she and her campaign taking this very seriously preparing for this in a very traditional Fashion recognizing the fact that this
is a a signal Moment In This Very compressed but hard-fought campaign for her to make the case for her candidacy and produce herself to the American people David G of course the host of the big take and at the debate in Philadelphia scheduled to be with us in the 8 and the 9 hour we promise he'll be awake then David thank you uh so much great appreciate it uh Eric neelson is awake he is in England Eric neelson is The chief Economist of unicredit group and it's always important to have him on because he is
a euro Optimist Eric I'm going to rip up the script I guess Brussels won a battle against Apple to recoup $13 billion does Europe want apples in Europe does Europe want Googles in Europe yeah I'm sure they will Tom um it's important to understand the context of this uh this was a ruling a final ruling uh as you said of 13 billion Against Apple but it's facilitated by Ireland so the point here is simply that they said Apple had received 13 billion worth of hidden or unfair uh subsidy de facto through the lower ta a
specific lower tax rate by Ireland so they have to pay it to Ireland and that be what it is my big concern and thank you for calling me a Euro Optimist it's it's difficult these days to be um the the key issue here is that Ireland is taking in more tax Revenue in dollars from American companies than all of the rest of the Europe combined wow at onethird more right uh and that is through these tax uh systems they have which is let's call it as it is tax Havens and as a European that I
find deeply problematic I don't blame Apple I blame Ireland so I mean give us a sense of just kind of how Europe broadly defined views these big technology companies which tend to be American tech companies Um in terms of just supporting the growth of technology and Taxation how does your view big Tech yeah I'm sure we we have if I should summarize I mean there's not one European view right but if I should summarize what I think is the common thinking in Europe on this is that uh it was a shame that we kind of
lost out on the big Industries after we had the mobile phones Nokia and so on doing very well but we're not too Unhappy about it American is an ally we like American companies is and we I think Europeans were pretty good at applying the technology developed by the great tech companies in America we put it into cars we put it into all sort of appliances and did this very well and uh we were not we free traders of as industry we are not too bothered where they come from then became the issue of course that
uh the Chinese developed Tech that and offered it cheaper and Then National Security develop uh concern developed uh on the same way as it has done in America and then now with the dry report yesterday you see it very clearly and it's been rumbled for a while that H maybe we were a little bit too relaxed maybe we're a little bit too okay with importing all this stuff and having it all produced developed and produced elsewhere so so the the the the um the thinking has certainly shifted that's for sure Eric we're gonna leave It
there Eric too short a visit let's do it longer next time Eric anelson is with the unit credit we'll get them on for a much more lengthy uh uh time I've got a lot of questions on ECB versus the FED Eric neelon he's great he does an audible like that Apple technology and that what' you learn I actually tuned in yesterday for a couple minutes I did too it's okay it's not like Tim or Steve walking around the stage in a black turtleneck no no but it's you produced It is it is it's produced but
it's a you know it's just another just a long evolution of the iPhone and kind it's there's not evolutionary changes I don't think anymore it's just a continued Evolution uh of the iPhone I guess we call it a camera I guess now with with a phone here so uh that's kind of where we are but I'll be I'll be ready to walk into my Verizon store not into distant future they're already up I I was up you know want to read my 10 newspapers at 1:00 a.m. and T-Mobile's out screaming are they good Verizon's sort
of out AT&T's out screaming are they okay free it's ABS it's free no kidding how do they say that I mean somebody's paying somebody's paying somewhere somebody we'll have much more on it and Mark Gman when you when you see according to Bloomberg about Apple coverage according it's Mark Gman he is the number one apple expert in the world honored to have him from the West Coast in the 9:00 Hour with our news in New York City John Tucker all right Tom Paul Lisa SpaceX launching a rocket carrying four private astronauts to space part of
the groundbreaking Mission aimed at performing the world's first commercial space walk 5 4 3 2 1 and a signature moment of this Mission set to occur on the third day of the flight the countdown of course on for the highly anticipated presidential Debate tonight in Philadelphia at Bloomberg's Amy Morris looking at how the candidates are preparing Amy vice president Harris's strategy in part is reportedly to hold former president Trump accountable while maintaining a calm demeanor on stage Harris's challenge is that she's not well defined to a lot of potential voters Donald Trump on the other
hand is quite well defined people know him his strategy may be to change some perceptions and soften His Edge a bit Bob MCN is a former White House energy adviser to President George W bush and he told Bloomberg News what he'd be listening for I hope they get pressed on their respective plans uh for Iran because in terms of what's going to affect the pump price for you me and our neighbors I think it has to do with Iran Bob m Al talking with Bloomberg's Joe Matthew this debate is the biggest opportunity the candidates may
have to reset the conversation and their image Now that the conventions are over and officials anticipate a huge viewing audience in Washington Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio and officials tracking traffical storm Fran Cen as she churns in the Gulf of Mexico the outer bands will impact the Texas Coastline as it veers Eastward through Louisiana's Bas in and the the states just North the storm could become a category 2 hurricane by Wednesday when it's expected to make landfall Global News 24 Hours a day whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm John Tucker and this is
Bloomberg Paul Lisa Tom uh jent Tucker thanks so much future s Paul Sweeney The Sweeney yield I mean the two-year yield yep it's back to September of 2022 it is we 3.67% Tom and just you know it wasn't too long ago that you're getting 5% you're getting 5% on to your treasury so we've had the treasury market pretty much kind of just get in front of this Federal Reserve the Market's already pricing in rate Cuts uh on the short end I saw a major Bank last night 3mon money they want to give you 5.0% that's
how do they do that I don't know I don't know I don't know how they do that I don't know but I that's not bad I mean you know for couple but not bad it's phenomenal it's phenomenal I mean back in the it's been 15 years since we've seen those kinds of rates we'll have to see Futures negative one the vix 1973 please stay with us Nationwide Bloomberg surveillance good morning [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business App
this is a Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio I'm Lis Mato Futures in the red as markets prepare for more economic data with the Consumer Price Index set for tomorrow Nasdaq futures down about a 10th of% 24 points down Futures little change down 23 points S&P futures are little changed as well we go to the 2-year yield 3.69% up one basis point the yield on the 10year 3.72% and that's up one basis point to currencies the Yen weakened after sources say boj officials see little need to hike rates next week right now
the Japanese yen is 14312 against the dollar euro British pound stronger Bitcoin up about 210 of a percent at 57,000 to earnings we go shares of Oracle up 8% quarterly uh profit bookings top estimates that was a big thanks to AI demand and shares of BMW falling down 6% in Germany the car maker Cut its outlook for the year they pointed to this faulty braking system from A supplier it caused a recall of 1 and a half million Vehicles now after the Bell we'll hear from the likes of GameStop and Dav Busters for on demand
news 24 hours a day subscribe to Bloomberg News Now wherever you get your podcasts I'm Lisa Matteo that's a Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul Lisa are you doing Bloomberg News now is that something you do in your free time I in my free time but it it's great no it's like it's 24 it's 247 it's always there 5 minutes or under you get you get to know everything about what's going on know NPR did this NPR did this and we're trying to do it with a business take and a news take yeah and it's
like ginormous I mean Hagar won't speak to me nower is so large on this that you know I I can barely get a conversation players doing this okay Bloomberg News Now go up the Apple podcast sign up for it and I kid you not it's like every hour I mean they're like serious about this it's it's addictive and it's uh just it's got all the fan it's got the Stars we don't have you know I mean it's got Moscow and Amy moris this is a joy there is no one from SE to shining sea in
academics who's actually done it Jennifer Lawless joins from UVA out of Union the way you get into Union College Is you spell connty boom you're in Professor Lawless thank you so much for joining us what separates you from every other academic out there because you actually ran for a congressional district you lost but what's what's the difference in Jennifer Lawless versus all the other blathering academics well I wouldn't say most of them are blathering some for sure but I did run for Congress in 2006 so I think I have a little bit of a different
kind Of understanding what goes into campaigns and election you are one of three or four people seriously who can answer the question I get all the time why is America still not voted for a female president just synthesize that across your work at Stanford at UVA the real answer is that there just haven't been enough female candidates to do it so first of all it is important to remember that Hillary Clinton received more popular votes than Donald Trump did So so it's not that Americans aren't willing to vote for a woman now obviously we elect
our president through the Electoral College so winning the popular vote didn't matter but public opinion was on her side but that's really been the only opportunity that the American people have had until heading into Election Day this year to cast a ballot for a female president when it comes to Congress when it comes to state legislatures gubernatorial Elections women do just as well as men the key is that they need to run in the first place Professor how important is tonight for both of these candidates it's important I don't think it's deal breaking important the
way that the June 27th debate was for Trump or Biden but it's probably their only debate it's the first time that they'll meet each other and that the American people will see them meet each other and it's their opportunity not only to Define themselves but try to Define their opponents to both voters and the global stage so I I guess one of the issues here for uh vice president Harris is to try to introduce herself a little bit and her policies and her Outlook to the American public how would you coature about how to approach
this evening I think the most important thing she needs to do is to decide which policies she wants to embrace from the Biden Administration and those will Likely be the ones that have been working and which that she'd like to distance herself from a little and those will be the ones that still need a degree of help so I can imagine her embracing her her record on Reproductive Rights what the Biden Administration has tried to do in a post-dbs world I can also imagine her putting forward some new ideas when it comes to inflation when
it comes to prices when it comes to the Border because people are not Satisfied with the way that the Biden Administration has handled those issues so it's a tough needle to thread because she wants to achieve success and distance herself at the same time is this the moment and I I guess former president Trump moving to the middle maybe isn't going to happen just based Stu everything he said over the last 90 days but is this where she moves to the Middle where she signals I'm like Reagan I got to get nominated by being a
Conservative but now like Clinton frankly I moov to the middle is this evening where it happens I'm not sure that she's going to move to the middle because she's already been perceived as flip-flopping on a lot of issues so I think what she needs to do is demonstrate that she has a set of policy proposals that will work for people in the middle even though she ultimately is a democratic liberal but Professor does policy proposals get you Elected they don't but they but not having them can cost you an election so the nuances of her
border policy are not going to be what wins the election but for every single day that the Republicans and the Trump ad and the Trump campaign can bash her for not having a clear border policy could hurt so it's difficult people don't vote on policy Nuance but they're turned off when there seems to be a lack of detail so on the other side of the AIO Professor former president Trump any guidance you would provide uh that campaign for this evening you know this is going to be about discipline versus policy kamla Harris has to demonstrate
that she has policy chops which is a little bit ironic given that she's been the vice president and Donald Trump needs to demonstrate that he can make it through 90 minutes without coming undone those are not comparable bars but they might be equally difficult to achieve For both candidates uh David guro was just with us he'll join his folks here in 35 uh minutes Professor Lawless David guro talked about the sterility of the debate versus others where there's an audience does the sterility benefit either of these candidates Donald Trump plays to an audience so it's
not his ideal situation but Kam Harris likes to prosecute and so even though the sterility of the debate might not hurt her the muted mics might So she's not going to be able to fact check him in real time she's not going to be able to ask direct questions the same way that he's not going to be able to get energy from an audience Professor thank you so much really appreciate this let's do this again Jennifer laws UVA just truly excellent on uh the female uh effort Across America in politics her major theme is the
ambition of more women getting into the process and doing more uh and and such Futures flat alysus Is the tape you look at inflation tomorrow and I guess we're just trying to see a dis inflation I haven't even looked at the Eco goet let's do that right now in the Bloomberg got that tomorrow Professional Service and it's sort of On Target year-over-year CPI comes in from 2.9 to a survey of 2.5 but if you take out housing and rent I think the statistic is lower yeah so it it is and so we've got I you
know I think the way the economists are telling Us Tom is inflation is moderating still has room to go here but that doesn't mean much to the consumer out there who knows that their box of cereal costs a lot more today than it did three or four years ago 20% more the r the general number I use and that's what people we all dealing with um so even though the rate of inflation is coming down it's a little Solace for be interesting to see heaven forbid theyd actually talk Bloomberg surveillance themes at the Debate tonight
should economics Finance investment yep you they can to do an a line item 2 minutes on unrealized gains I don't I don't think so I don't think we that wouldn't be great television get there as well Lisa Matteo Paul Sweeney and time ke Michael bar uh is off he's he witnessed Monday Night Football last night yeah seven for the for the for the Jets but I tell you what the the Silver Lining um Mr Rogers is still Still Standing so he's ready for week that one Spectacular pass was something I was like you know what
you you look for we're going to continue on here on Apple carplay on Android auto thank you so much for this distribution worldwide Android auto Apple carplay they're killing it out with new updates I don't think they mentioned at the Apple show yesterday but okay you know you get the new phone you get a better Apple carplay that's all there is to it from New York City Across the Nation Bloomberg Surveillance good morning [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg Television
and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio I'm Lis Mata well we've got a mix of red and green on this screen investors looking to balance us recession fears and likelihood of a soft Landing that's what they're looking for in Nasdaq futures right now little change down about 13 points Dow futures down about about nine points S&P futures up about two we have the 2-year yield 3.69% up two basis points they yield on the 10year 3.72% and that's up two basis points to commodity spot gold lower
$2,544 an ounce we have Brent crude $71 a barrel wtag crude $67 a barrel few companies making news Well shares of tsmc they're up about half a% in Taiwan Revenue jumped 33% last month AI spending holding up in the smartphone market maret recovering me said it's growing sees a growing risk of us dock Worker strike with no labor agreement reached yet shares down about a tenth of percent in Copenhagen and David Solomon said Goldman Sachs trading Revenue well it's set for a steeper than expected drop this quarter from the previous year and that's due to
declines in fixed income shares down about half a percent that is your Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul yeah thanks so much Lisa greatly appreciate it good morning Across the Nation on YouTube subscribe To Bloomberg podcast thank you for that effort it's the number one way you can help Lisa mono there's no other no other way to put it subscribe to Bloomberg uh podcast out there Android auto apple carplay good morning Across the Nation good morning 20 Nations worldwide with apple carplay okay and uh good morning to those on radio Nationwide including 991 FM in
Washington Bloomberg 1130 in New York and good good morning just thrilled with the initial days of 929 FM Boston in Boston I'm going to get a question out of the way right now to anag who's expert on the cloud and how we use it on Apple because Paul wants to ask about desert titanium and the amount of Ramy should get anog I go mental you know this because there's not enough discussion of the chip I was thrilled that Apple actually laid out the a18 Pro 3 nanometer chip wow how spect spacular is that six core
Beast yeah the fun thing over there is And I didn't know till several years ago they really do this in house and that's really spectacular because they designed the chip get tsmc to make it and really help their products I I I'll tell you something a you know last week I was at my sister's place looked at her laptop it was so hot and that's what the windows have to you take that with a Mac you're never going to feel that and a lot of that is driven by their chip and and the way they
they you know innovate Around that area all right so let's put into context yesterday honor what is it the launch of some of these products here the the iPhone 16 uh which I'll be upgrading to here in the coming days um what's it mean for the company what's it mean for the stock so if you look at it over the last three years we have not not seen any Improvement in unit shipment sold per year some of that you could blame it on economic weakness in China some of that You could say that the hardware
has not been upgraded and Frankly Speaking yesterday the hardware upgrade wasn't there in terms of the shape of the phone or any of the noticeable features but still at the same time if you go back in the time frame of what you're saying fi21 and around that area this did sell a lot of phones and that cohort is going to go out and refresh right now so we think you could should get about a 5% bump in unit shipments and the other Factor is people are skewing towards the higher end model which is the pro
and the proax as as Tom was talking about the chip which means that the revenue impact is more than 5% which we think could be you know somewhere in the range of 7 89% I just noticed this everybody you know publishing yesterday maybe Dan Ives went to $300 did he I think he was at 285 I don't know I'm making this up folks we do that on surveillance I see a $300 statistic on Dan well that's that That's the number it's on the Bloomberg terminal that's the number so honoro is AI talk to about where
apple is with AI do they feel like they're there is this the first step where are we with apple and AI so I mean in our view Apple controls probably one of the most important and most Luc lucrative distribution system in the world and for them they really don't need to go out and spend billions of dollars in capex to capitalize on This thing article reported yesterday they said they're going to double their capex Microsoft is going to spend 15 20 25 billion extra than they did last year Apple's case none of that stuff they
have the phone in your hand they're saying you want to use open AI you use open AI I won't be surprised if they actually license Google's Gemini also in down the road so from for the user you won't know what's happening in the back end you're going to get some cool Features on your phone which is going to customize your phone very different than what it is for me or or Tom and I think that's really Apple's AI play are they take with with the with the sales Deals they have with T-Mobile Verizon AT&T and
all and I assume internationally are they taking gross market share from Samsung Huawei and the other players they don't really believe in that game Tom and I don't think that's you know that's that's the game they Play they want to basically say you come to us when you're ready and you can afford this phone so they're not going after uh the lower end Android but if you're a higher end Samsung customer it's very unlikely you're going to choose Apple anyway when we ran our survey they have a very high customer loyal loyalty rate in the
'90s whereas Android phones is somewhere in the 80s so people when they get a I would say a little bit richer they migrate from Android to iOS and very few people go the other way around talk to us about what's the latest in China here I mean are they in a position where they can maybe start growing again in China onor I think that's the biggest uncertainty over the next 12 months I think where the Bulls are going to get it wrong next year if China starts to deteriorate in terms of economic conditions they are
they're already not so good but uh I think this is for for My expectations of 5% unit shipments the where that can go wrong is if China goes downwards the big upgrade and again you know we got to thank Mark Gman for all the stuff that he did everything Apple announced yesterday he had already talked about it there was not one surprise in our view iPhone 17 is going to be a game changer compared to the hardware at that time over the next 12 months you're going to see n we got to stop the show
worldwide There are you telling Paul swe to wait for the iPhone 17 no his phone can't handle it he has to get the 16 it's it's more of he knows so I mean but what is the iPhone 17 what is that going to do do you think oh that's going to be a thinner model completely changed in terms of the look of it and by that time a lot of the AI applications that we are talking about right now which is in you could say the beta mode or the the you know people Haven't really
created those applications that would be widely accessible so it's going to be a staggered launch of a lot of these AI features the these AI features are not going to be available in EU at this point they're not going to be available in China but over the next 12 months it will show up slowly and slowly so we think that super cycle everybody is talking about that's going to come for the next phase of the phone not the one That was released yesterday uh you can't see this on radio folks lucky you but ano's got
the the airpod thing stuck out of his ear as well did they make a jump condition yesterday anog in the airp Pod things yeah I think the the the concept that it's going to help people hair better is just phenomenal but to be honest there's one particular Gadget I don't have I've stayed away from it and that's the Apple watch but you know I'm going to order one the ultra one on Friday because that was beautiful that that certainly changed my view of the variable device I think that's we'll let you go so you can
go to the Apple Store and uh empty the checkbook and rag thank you so much with Bloomberg intelligence he's expert on the cloud we'll get him on here with all the tech companies look at the cloud I mean you know we sort of fake it I mean you look around the table here Folks at our world Headquarters Mato Tucker Sweeney Keane the four most tech unsaved people on the planet I mean I used to be cutting Ed I don't know what happened the big debate this morning you know we're trying to be adults here in
a good conversation the deig big debate is Desert titanium is not brown right no it's not brown it's a different desert titanium but Lisa do you have a case on your phone I I do yes I I used to have the otter box because I've dropped it so many times I have This one I'm not I'm not going to sell the brand but this has saved me so many times you can drop it from four stories up and it won't break or something but they they make such a big deal about the finish and yeah
but every no one ever sees it they put a cheap case around it I don't know anyways that was great and of course Mark Gman with us here in an hour and a half that's a a really special attendance this morning David gura in 20 minutes on the debate Futures In negative4 with our news in New York City John Tucker all right Tom Paul and Lisa the first and for now only debate between vice president Harris and former president Trump just hours away candidates face off for 90 minutes tonight for the ABC News presidential debate
at Bloomberg senior Washington correspondent solam Mosen says this will be a unique encounter for at least one reason we're going to see comma Harris meet Trump it's going to happen before Our eyes they're going to meet for the first time shake hands for the first time ever that's also rare we're seeing Harris prepare methodically like a student like she did in law school as a prosecutor and Trump is a Chaos Agent where there are no rules Zia Mosen reports Trump has agreed to ABC's rules that mics will be muted when it's the other candidates turn
to speak Harris campaign had lobbied against that saying it would put the former prosecutor at a Disadvantage and of course our coverage begins 8 pm. Wall Street time on a special edition of balance of power on Bloomberg Radio at Bloomberg television well we had liftoff 4 3 2 [Applause] 1 the SpaceX launch of Polaris Dawn to low earth orbit from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida Mission intended to include the first fully commercial spacewalk using a space suit uh developed by SpaceX the crew capsu is Intended to fly an elliptical path around the earth at
a maximum distance of about 870 miles Americans were duped out of more than $5.6 billion last year through fraud schemes involving cryptocurrency the FBI says it received nearly ,000 complaints last year by victims of financial fraud involving Bitcoin ether and other cryptocurrencies most rapid scheme was investment fraud that accounted for $ 3.96 billion of those losses and a legendary actor with a legendary voice that's how James earol Jones is being remembered he died Monday at the age of 93 in Disney's Lion King He was the king of the jungle remember who you are of course
he was also the voice of Darth Vader and even CNN he was born in Mississippi in 1931 to what's described as an unstable household he ended up moving to Michigan uh when he was five raised by his maternal grandparents as Well as known as uh uh became he became known for his voice uh in a lot of the movies he said that move when he was young was so traumatic it actually caused him to stammer and stutter so for years to hide that he just didn't even talk yeah the scene in Field of Dreams I
mean everybody's got different scenes in that but the scene in Back Bay where the VW van turns around on the Rainy Street and he's standing there and he's standing there is just Extraordinary y absolutely just unbelievable I when they film that and you know I've seen people at Fenway literally try to search for the scene they're they're out there somewhere anyways that's that's great um Paul I think we we've got to talk about the markets we haven't really touched upon uh the markets Torsten slock at Apollo with a blistering note this morning yep we're not
in recession we're not and He's been so clear on that for such a long time uh he's really been a voice of of Reason out there when everybody was saying hey you know this thing's rolling over and he he just say I'm just not seeing it the data is just not showing are we slowing from certain levels yes um but are we in the risk of recession by his data and his analysis no you got enemy corporations adjust and you see it in the Apple thing I mean the fancy phone I'm looking at folks you
I'm not a Apple Fanboy but the technology is great I'm sure I'm sliding into 12200 1300 14400 bucks I but I'm not well three4 of the phones and this is corporations just getting it done the wireless carriers Wireless yep come on down a great way to play the wireless story is the tower companies you know the people that own the towers upon which all this Wireless stuff uh bounces off of around the country that's a good business now thanks s Arana for that and again Mark Gman coming up here on the day Lisa's been on
she's been like you know looking she's looking teal I think you know is that where she's I think the phone the teal not the pink one Lisa is more like you know teal I mean you know that's her style color Future's flat the vix 19 .72 good morning [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio I'm Lisa Mata we've got red and green on the screen as investors gear
up for another key inflation report out tomorrow a key US presidential debate tonight and also the European Central bank's policy meeting later this Week we'll also get more fed speak today that's from the feds Michael bar and Michelle Bowman right now we have Nasdaq futures little change down about six points Dow futures down about 16 points S&P futures up about two we have the two-year yield 3.68% that's up one basis point the yield on the 10e 3.72% and that's up one basis point uh to commodity we have spot gold lower $254 uh an ounce we
have Brent crewed $70 a barrel WTI crewed $67 a barrel now we talked about Apple losing that key EU decision it came a day though after its big event where it unveiled the iPhone 16 new AI technology upgrades to its Apple watch and airpods but speaking of airpods this is an interesting twist European hearing aid stocks they fall in the news that Apple's airpods are set to become approved as hearing aid so now you have Sova the parent company of phonex here in the US down 2% in Switzerland amplifon down about 4% in Italy that
is the Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul Lisa thanks so much Sam keen and Paul Sweeney here this morning and you know that we got through the first weekend of football and to me it's just ever more evident it's all that's left yeah I mean there's just no other it's it's just so so big it just gets bigger and bigger and bigger every year the NFL and there's like what five distribution points now in my my living Room at Le yeah I would think so Tom and I mean a lot of folks you know wanted
to watch a game on peacock if they don't have peacock they're not seeing the game so but I I don't know there's it's all over the place uh you have to be a tech I think pretty Savvy to be able to watch all the games you want watch and you're going to spend money I mean we mention sportico adds it up to $788 exactly a year I mean you kind of long back to the days when you had a Cable package and you paid one bill and you kind of got pretty much everything you wanted
I I don't know I I it's going to be interesting to see we saw survive week one Michael bar with a full report yes when he gets back from he won't come back no maybe maybe but his Lions his Lions won so I mean he's feeling good there that that was that was was exciting uh as well red and green on the screen now a look at the front pages what's making news around the world your Daily Roundup of today's headlines from major Publications you J look at the front pages Al Lisa mat hour brought
to you by ibkr with the interactive brokers forecast Trader you can trade your views on key economic and climate indicators visit ibkr.com forecast and get started today thank you interactive brokers Lisa you're all fired up over there I am fired up you remember we talked about the Wall Street journal's list of overall college Rankings right the best colleges for your kids Yuri and Timmer Babson yesterday bson yes that was in the list too uh now this is looking at the best salaries list so the Wall Street Journal has the colleges that are making graduates the
most money um at the top ivy league colleges those with strong tech programs number one MIT Metts Institute technology um early career earnings had a medium of just over $1 133,000 uh do now it also had a lot of Success stories from Al who did you say starting pay starting it's a 133 133 225 I made in 1986 really my first job 18K you were living newspapers yes woo I remember looking it going they take that much in taxes exactly what's F that's what my first question uh number two Stanford University um they said that
entrepreneurship pipeline of course into the tech companies Princeton University number three Private universities though 36 of the top 50 spots on that salary list um but stem programs Georgia Tech was fourth so stem program also to me there's a divide between kids going to college whether they're taking art history or electrical engineering if they're working their tail off or are they just SL sliding through what percentage is just sliding through I'm probably in a sliding through category that's why you know I just I just Especially especially at business school Chuck liberman was in yesterday Chuck
liberman good morning iconic Equity investor he's got that MIT ring on his finger with the bear playing around with those people no it's a beaver excuse me the beaver on are they yeah it's a it's a it's a classic it's like Texas A&M yeah Jess menon's got the Texas A&M ring on and Aggie ring it's a hunk of gold next uh well keep it with education so the Boston Globe had this interesting Article a lot of parents more parents in the three of Boston's largest suburbs they sending the kids to private school so they're switching
them from public to private talking about Brooklyn Cambridge um Newton they have about 30,000 school age children so one in five now attend private or parochial schools the reason why experts are saying Co had a lot to do with it um in September 2020 a lot of private schools brought the students back full-time time um but the public Schools stayed online um and a lot of parents want that more challenging environment for the kids they said that the private school does that for them they have the smaller class sizes as well to me it's Nationwide
so it's it is Nation they do get to that up in New England they have so many good private schools up in New England as they do around here in a greater New York area but yeah I I I just I just think Co we we don't understand we don't understand With our kids I we're living this every day I mean vet bill hasn't recovered from Co but you know I'm sorry we don't understand what Co did to the kids' learning Cycles just that they're behind period you that's all there and then public schools have
budget cuts strikes I mean there's so many different issues for the public school new yor deal with yeah everywhere next what do you got okay NFL season right you've been talking about it underway okay but Experts are seeing more bankruptcies in states that have legalized sports betting so personal bankruptcies yes consumer bankruptcy attorneys they're telling Bloomberg yeah starting to see gambling debts more often it's happening in the states with the sports bidding apps um here's what the studies show residents in those States shown early signs of financial distress a 28% increase the likelihood of bankruptcy
filings it could get worse because Americans expected to report uh record 35 billion in legal bets through the NFL season up from 27 billion last year so you see the difference a lot of them men in their 20s and 30s that's who's placing the Vets but yeah there can I ask a dumb question and and the guy at Bloomberg intelligence is expert on this in in gambling briger does anybody win the house in the long run I mean like house WIS that's why they build these huge casino hotels and swimming pools And but like over
three weeks of NFL is there somebody that wins over three forget about the season yeah I don't know I don't just to give and they go oh my OMG I made a lot of money you know back with your head not over it that's what they say but gu some people I don't have that kind of but they're yeah they're blowing through their 401ks by I'm still not used to this I I'm back with Pete Rose and I'm not I mean we're we're full gaming so Easy with your phone though I mean that's the problem
intro saying made it easier I mean more accessible right it's right there you know and it's just yeah we'll see but it's it's I don't have 28 States or something like that has legalized gambling 30 yeah yeah about 30 is that it or you got one more no one more this one this one's a Dinger okay Halloween right just over a month away n Walmart has a costume for adults that cater to um let's say open relationships So it's a costume of three it comes in set of three thres yes that's learn calling it I
didn't never heard that word before today um so Walmart calls it it's a couples threepiece s'mores costume okay s'mores bar s'mores so you have one who's a piece of chocolate one who's the marshmallow and one who's the graham cracker okay it sells for about 27 bucks um but the New York Post says it's gaining popularity social media the thruple costume um more people are to That open relationship nice all right I'm calling it that um is this a family Network I called it open there's other names for it um but um study show geners that's
what they're more kind of open to good um this costume becoming more popular yes have fun with that so this have fun it used to be simple are you going as Elsa or the other girl Let it go Let it go it used to be you know Halloween for kids yeah but I mean I don't know adults do it they had the Adult Halloween parties I remember when it switch you're ready what Kors beer the elvir campaign to me shifted the country it was so successful and that's when the bars all picked up on it
big time and all that big Halloween yeah but to me it was it was you know kids and all that we'll have to see rree thank you Lisa Lisa Mato on the newspapers this you know something yep we we're doing some jamers Earl Jones uh Music today Burnaby wild sort of part of that energy of field of uh dream stepping off good morning everyone from New York City Bloomberg surveillance good morning Boston good morning Washington good morning Across the Nation explod through space like a true Nature's Child but we were born B to be wild
we can climb so high I never want to die Born to Be Wild [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keane and Paul swe are these stocks under own owned by institutional Wall Street a lot of these companies talking About generative AI with Lisa Mato on Market investors just worried about the ongoing Sal slump in China and Michael bar with news a ship traveling through the southern Red Sea has been attacked the best in economics Finance investment and international relations this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Radio good morning
everyone Paul Sweeny Tom keing Michael bar Lisa Matteo good morning it is Bloomberg surveillance at cross This Nation on Apple carplay Android auto good morning Phoenix Arizona we'll get there in a a bit as well and around the world we say uh red and green on the screen evicts 19. uh 60 aul a debate I mean there just this is it this is it tonight I think and this may be it Tom this may be the debate this may be the time for vice president Harris to kind of introduce herself to the broader electorate I
guess I have to see for the Interactive Broker Studios our Bloomberg business Flash at least on a and we've got to mix the red and green on the screen after all three major indexes kicked off the new trading week with gains of at least 1% we have Nasdaq futures up about 10 points down Futures down 20 points S&P futures up about four we have the two-year yield at 3.68% that's up one basis point the yield on the 10year 3.72% and that's up one basis point to Commodities want to turn to oil we have Brent crude
at $70 a barrel WTI Crude $67 a barrel uh Chevron Exxon shell shutting down some wells ahead of tropical storm Francine then we have companies making news Apple and Google both companies lost multi-million dollar Court fights with the EU European Regulators cracking down on tech companies we have Apple down about 1% Google up about 210 of a percent and finally the FTC battling tapestry's acquisition of rival Capri yesterday you Had the CEO of Capri told the judge that he's hopeful that planned acquisition is going to revitalize its Flagship Michael Kors brand we have tapestry up
about 1% Capri down about 210 of a percent that is your Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul Lisa thanks so much Bloomberg surveillance we're brought to you by con Resnick advisory Assurance tax discover game-changing strategies to maximize value optimize performance and manage risk put your business at the Forefront Thank you con Resnik uh for your uh support quickly to Philadelphia David gur there uh for the debate tonight David I saw one poll Trump's ahead I saw another poll Harris is ahead discuss yeah the issue here Tom is momentum and I think that's what the Harris
Camp is paying closest attention to so the most recent one is that New York Times Sienna College poll neck and neck within the margin of error this is such a strange campaign there wasn't a Convention boost or bounce for vice president Harris afterward but it seems like it has started to stall or there are signs of that happening that's what they're fearing here and they want this debate to be a catalyst to Kickstarter to see if she can move up in the polls again and they are pouring Thomas you know hundreds of millions of dollars
into TV and digital ads going into the election an unprecedented amount of money more than $300 million so this is Part of that plan part of their hope that it's going to introduce her to a lot more Americans and have a real kind of booster effect for her campaign David from the um Harris Camp what would be a victory tonight in Philadelphia you know these debates aren't watched by many people in their full 90-minute form there are moments that go viral that are memd and I think that that's what they're looking for here tonight yes
it's about introducing Her and her policies to more Americans but it's finding these few signal moments that are going to catch fire uh and S of use them to introduce the candidate to more people uh make them more comfortable with with each of them so they're going to be looking for those tonight and suffice to say yes they've been prepping on policy how they're going to comport themselves on stage but I think they've also probably both of them been looking for opportunities or Planning for opportunities when they can find those sort of short moments that
will catch fire be on the stage tonight now David G thank you so much tonight 8:00 pm balance of power uh Joe Matthew Kaye Lions David G with his coverage from uh Philadelphia and afterwards they do the spin room thing yeah g you see G in the spin room an act of God looks like one of the teacups at Disney Disneyland out in Anaheim uh as well David girl thank you uh for that it's 109 today in Phoenix but critically the low is 81 so you say to yourself that's unlivable except by one statistical study
uh Paul Sweeney 86% of Phoenix is air conditioned or better better be basically the technology makes Phoenix go and our next guest he's a native of the Pacific Northwest but he's been out there in Phoenix I I just see the news Tom it's been brutal for those folks out there in Terms of heat bill SME joins us here he's here in lovely cool Midtown Manhattan C SME Capital Management Bill what do you make of this Market here I mean a lot of folks are just saying I'm not buying it here but I turn around I
say hey the fed's going to be cutting rates earnings seem to be okay isn't that a constructive environment for markets for equities well the the market can stay uh in insane longer than you can say solvent okay heard that Before so our view of this is that that we are in a I don't know four or five year process of beginning to unwind the fourth major Financial Euphoria episode of the last 100 years oh boy that doesn't sound good so the the the 1929 it it it it was the adoption of radio you know Charlie
Munger um uh said that that if you have a financial Euphoria episode and you add a legitimate development uh you're you're you're mixing raisins with turds and you End up with turds Okay so so the legitimate development in 29 was radio the legitimate development was walking on the moon and all the technology borne by it in the 1960s the legitimate development was the internet is going to change our lives and now the legitimate development is artificial intelligence so you you've got everything you need we had 1% money for three or four years uh participation is
the highest in the stock market and the percentage of Assets in the FED Z1 report in common stock is through the roof so you know what's next the threeyear 5year track record of the SME value fund is like no other in the Bloomberg Universe it is off the chart 97th percentile 95th percentile and of course we've had some growth here for the last 12 months how do you perceive the when of a shift from growth over to where smeed value wins well that's a great question and I'll bring you back to uh uh the the
question Of when we had the 1% interest rates for a few years and so we were arguing that interest rates would normalize at some point in time and people would say Bill uh when's that going to happen and I'd say well you can't hold your breath till then well the same thing happens on the euphoric side in Common Stocks you you it might be 6 months it might be a year year uh but when it hits it it's so quick I mean remember how fast the FED raised rates they went from a quarter to Five
and a quarter in a year it was the biggest interest rate increase in a year and if you weren't ready for it you know you got you got caught by it well the same thing will happen in the equity Market in other words at bu Buffett used to talk about it being like Cinderella at the ball you've been told that at midnight the clock is straight 12 okay I'm glad you're bringing this up Mr Buffet owns Apple big even if he sold some he Still owns Apple Big Bill SME doesn't own apple right that's correct
but you're both perceived as value investors discuss well uh a lot of our good long-term track record came from buying broken growth stocks in 08 and 09 you know we came out of the bottom with Starbucks being our biggest position Starbucks at one point was your biggest position oh yeah we we we had a huge move wait wait we got to we got to break some news here Bill SME at a pumpkin Latte uh well I was in Seattle remember for 40 years and I can remember when it was the most popular stock in the
planet and they had trouble back then and and the stock got very depressed I think we paid low teens multiple to buy the stock and people that we'd worked for for years who knew I was a value person in nature and our firm was a value person in nature said Bill no one's going to want a $4 cup of coffee well well guess what it that is the only luxury people Kept in 10 11 and 12 all the other luxuries went out the window but over spending twice a week uh twice a week twice to
1200 noon ask Leisa mat tail Paul get one more in here so talk to us about energy here we've got WTI Crude oil below $68 a share but I know you guys have historically had a big exposure to energy what's the energy call today well it it we used one of your charts from Bloomberg here in our piece today uh the major hedge funds That are tracked have the lowest exposure to uh oil and gas right now that they've had any time in the last 10 years give us a name uh well probably the cheapest
name in our portfolio is probably a paty uh really interesting wow a name from the past yeah and that that's been kind of a glamorous name a few times in the when when the business is doing well but uh I think it's natural gas exposure that that do they have a system internally that Anna Darko Had Ah that's a great question but I don't have the answer to that you went about my pay grade okay Bill SM thank you so much congratulations don't be a stranger just love when you're in New York can we interview
you when it's under 100 degrees in Phoenix sure can okay we'll do that bill SME thank you so much Paul get uh Mr SME up here because we got a John Tucker he bought value at the top so he's got a 201k on the bill SME will give John Tucker some Pro value Tips here and way jent tuer have we had the opening of the uh 401K envelope no it's up to a 401k really you're back to normal we're back to normal yeah maybe even like you know knocking on the door of possibly are you
would would you like to announce your retirement now is Sparta is emailing me what's he saying like Paul we'll both be dead before retirement that is our retirement plan red and green on the screen now the vix 19.51% New York City John Tucker all right Tom Paul Lisa possible hurricane could hit the Gulf Coast this week disrupting energy supplies and more and Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Carolyn tracking what is now tropical storm Francine Rob John Francine is located 400 miles to the souths southwest of Cameron Louisiana and it is headed towards the Central Louisiana coast looks
like it's going to strike it by early tomorrow afternoon is either a category 1 or Category 2 Hurricane that means even as far east as the New Orleans Orleans area we could see some rather strong winds and heavy rainfall good news is the system should be moving fairly rapidly and it weakened tomorrow afternoon and evening as it heads Inland and it brings quite a bit of rainfall to portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the mid Mississippi River Valley later in the week John I Bloomberg's Rob Carolyn we are just hours away from the
first and Maybe only debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and Bloomberg's Jody Schneider has more on the ABC News presidential debate kamla Harris was not supposed to be on this debate stage but then when she uh took over for um President Biden as the nominee uh she is now facing a big test she hasn't debated in years uh she and Donald Trump um have not matched before we're told so this will be um you know really a chance for her to Define herself uh to the people To to the public uh in a policy
oriented way we saw her at the Democratic Convention but there it was really her story here it's what is she going to do as president and also Define herself against your opponent Bloom's Jody Schneider part of our team coverage of the ABC News presidential debate all kicks off tonight 8:00 pm. Wall Street time on a special edition of balance of power on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg television uh this one from the New York Times buying that $23 honey dece cocktail when attending the US Open a kind of a ride of passage in New York this
year during the tournament that had more than its feir share of fun there was a new novelty treat on which tennis fans Foodies and social media influencers train their focus $100 box of chicken nuggets uh created by thank you team at I I'm going to mess this up uh Coco do Coco do uh luxury Manhattan fried chicken restaurant that itself can Be famously hard to book joining us now surveillance open correspondent Paul Sweeney did we partake partake or were we chickville no no this was at the club level oh okay I don't know it's just
fast moving Mar $100 for chicken nuggets yeah that sounds like you know there's a Chick-fil-A down the the block here we can go try that out okay we'll try that out John Tucker thank you for that nugget of wisdom there Futures up 11 This is Bloomberg's surveillance good morning [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this of Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio I'm Lis Mato well we've got green on the screen now Market's preparing
for more economic data Consumer Price Index set for tomorrow right now we have Nasdaq futures up about 210 of a percent 42 points down Futures up a tick about four points S&P futures up about 11 points we have the two-year yield at 3.67% that's little changed the yield on the 10e 3.72% and that's up one basis point to currencies the Japanese Yen weeken sources saying B boj officials they're seeing little need to hike rates next week uh right now we have the Japanese Yen up about a tenth of a percent 14303 against the dollarway the
Euro weaker British pound stronger Bitcoin up about half a percent at 57,000 to earnings we go we have Oracle up 7% reported quarterly profit bookings topped estimates and that was a big Thanks to AI demand shares of BMW down 7% in Germany car maker cut its outlook for the year it's pointing to this faulty braking system from A supplier caused a recall of 1 and A2 million vehicles and finally some changes at Southwest Airlines chairman Gary Kelly stepping down along with six directors facing pressure from an overhaul from activist investor Elliot investment now Southwest did
say it supports CEO Bob Jordan who Elliott has been trying to Push out shares of Southwest up about 210 of a percent for on demand news 24 hours a day subscribe to Bloomberg News Now wherever you get your podcast I'm Lisa Mato that is a Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul oh thanks so much Lisa I appreciate that we do equities bonds currencies Commodities big focus on equities recently obviously the emotion of August early August the emotion of September early September uh but we we've ignored FX a little bit and That's when you go to
the force Jane Foley joins from a robo Bank in London just wonderful in the synthesis of Foreign Exchange Jane there seems to be not an outlier call but a belief of a few that the Euro must weaken which I believe means a dollar will be resilient or stronger is a dollar broken is it now on a vector that is weaker you know I don't think the dollar is broken certainly we've got to get Through the next few months we've got to get through uh how many interest rate cuts the FED is going to do we
got to get our heads around that and of course the US election too which will obviously have a big influence on the US dollar but you know if you listened yesterday to dragy speech now he of course uh had uh published this paper yesterday which was commissioned by the European commission to to Really address uh some of the structural issues that Europe was Facing and and he was talking about uh the need for Europe to find new investment with 800 billion euros every year to match uh really the growth prospects of both China and the
us if you look at a chart of productivity for instance over the last few years you see us productivity so much higher uh than that of most of the other G10 so the US fundamentals in in that respect in terms of productivity in terms of growth are certainly still stronger than than Europe and and you know from that point of view I would say one of the the biggest surprises in the FX Market this year is the fact that the Euro has managed to it's sort of vying with the dollar for position of second best
performing G10 currency in the year to date despite Germany's economic ways despite the movement of the far right in in European politics and and and despite you know all of these budget issues particularly that of France Jane here in the US uh it's a very political environment it's a political year election year we've got a big uh debate tonight does the Foreign Exchange Market how does a Foreign Exchange Market discount kind of just politics here in the US well I mean obviously you know foreign exchange like other asset prices can only move in a in
a binary way so it therefore tends to simplify um you know politics down to you know is it a buy or Is it a sell and and and what it's done and I think we saw this very much in June after that uh TV debate between Biden and Trump uh very much you know the Trump trade that people putting on bets that oh you know it looks like Trump will win this election and therefore what are the sort of policies that we might have from from Trump they're going to be a bit more fiscal stimulus
we are going to potentially have more tariffs and and that of course Meant for the dollar well if we were going to have uh more stimulus if we were going to have more more more tarff there's going to be more inflation and therefore at the prospects of less fed easing than we would have otherwise now of course over the last uh uh seven weeks or so we've seen Harris you know really bring some fresh momentum into the Democratic bid and that I think is why the the FX Market will be watching tonight will she be
able to sustain or Build on that momentum or not and and I think it's going to be really interesting to see if she does build on that that momentum whether or not some of these Trump trades begin to you know further fizzle out so Jane I'm looking at the pound sterling here um up about 5% over the last year or so here is that sustainable here for the Sterling here I mean uh you've got a budget coming up talk to us about Sterling well you know Sterling is the Best performing G10 currency in the year
to date and it was the second best performing G10 currency last year I you know in honor of the Queen the coronation of King Charles Jane Foley I'm strong Sterling the Irish Jane Foley so um so uh it is you know it has performed well but what I would say is that it's it's not really a strong currency not if you look at long-term averages and I think we've got what we've got to remember is back in September 2022 cable was at this slowest rate ever and that was on the back of the Liz trust
mini budget and we also saw in September 2222 um Euro Sterling really leap higher on the back of that budget so what we're seeing I think since then is Sterling slowly regaining its composure slowly regaining its Poise it's not strong yet but it is stronger and I think that the mini budget will certainly be a hurdle as to whether or Not investor sentiment can remain positive as as it has done in the last few months so what is the BET forget about the speculation the trying to make you know two big figures on weak Euro
or that what is your foreign exchange not investment it's always a speculation but 90day six Monon trade Jane Foley I still think the Yen has got further to go I mean I think the the bank of Japan meeting on September the 19th isn't going to be about September the 19th It's going to be is October in play for a bank of Japan interest rate hike and and certainly if if October's not in play well yeah I think December we're going to see another interest rate hike so I think the Yen can make an awful lot
of ground I think if we look back in two years time we'll still see the Yen at these sorts of levels as being cheap uh and the budget for the UK I think is going to be instrumental too because um are we going to look back in two years Time and think yeah you know what Sterling was so cheap two years ago or actually is this budget going to make us recognize all of the problems that we still have in the UK economy so on strong y you can frame out 140 150 down to whatever
I get that where a 130 Sterling can you frame out 140 150 Sterling the Ascension of the United Kingdom and Irish experiment well you know I I think for Sterling to get back to 140 we would Have to see more better news on growth now this year we've had you know better than expected we're doing okay in terms of the UK economy in terms of growth but there's an awful lot of headwinds particularly in terms of of the debt uh that starma the prime minister wants to see debt at 2 and a half% now that
would be exceptionally strong given the UK's recent record um so no one's really anticipating that but if he can get you know closer to 2% I I I think Sterling Could see that but there's a lot of ifs and buts um in order to get from A to B and I and I think we would need some more positive relationships with with Europe which starma does want to create we'd have to see investment coming back into uh UK we'd have to see um you know the government tax policy which is what the budget course is
going to be all about not you know throwing in investors attitudes away how much more is it going to be on on capital gains tax for Instance so there there's a lot to play for right now and I at least that the new government does understand that but in in in s respects the Chancellor's got her hands Tire behind her back because the fiscal situation in the UK is looking really quite poor fascinating Jane Foley thank you so much always informative with Robo Bank there um you know sort of a nudy dollar nudi nudi CFA
language but strong Yen and possibly a a bid to Sterling as well Being the arch theme there we'll get more from her in the coming uh months here on on FX I mean you know it used to be easy it just you looked at dollar Yen you looked at euro dollar and you know tried to act Posh and fancy and all that and now it's like it's a science euros swissy and you know the rest of it well when you go over to Rome home you'll have your your dollars will fine I think you know
we're looking we're trying to get weak EO to happen and so far we're Going down in flames we got a a good tape we had red and green on the screen no Futures up 14 the vix 19.33% [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] he [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] He [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio I'm Lisa Matteo a slight lip to the markets investors looking to Balance us recession fears
and the likelihood of a soft Landing right now we have Nasdaq futures up about 310 of per 56 points Dow futures little changed up 23 points S&P futures up about 2 t0 of a percent 13 points the 2-year yield at 3.66% that's little change the yield on the 10e 3.71% and that is little change changed to commodi spot gold higher $256 an ounce we have Brent crewed $71 a Barrel WTI crewed $67 a barrel shares of Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing they're up about half a percent in Taiwan Revenue jumped 33% last month AI spending holding up
the smartphone market starting to recover me said it's growing risk of a US dock worker strike with no labor agreement yet reached shares were lower in Copenhagen but now they're up nearly 1% and finally David Solomon said Goldman Sachs is trading Revenue set for a steeper than expected Drop this quarter from the prior year yeah declines and fixed income there you go shares down half a percent that's a Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul Lisa Matteo thank you so much our economic indicators through the week in particularly key inflation data tomorrow uh CPI data is
brought to you by Commonwealth supporting more than 2,000 independent financial advisers the 2 to1 advisor to staff ratio small firm attentiveness big advisor impact go to Commonwealth.com to learn about their consultative support in technology Peter cheer with us right now had a macro strategy at Academy Securities and Peter it's audible Tuesday here at Bloomberg so I'm going to audible my grandfather in the living room in the dining room rather had the wooden clubs in the corner and he did better than good like vard and uh other Giants before onor Palmer and he would talk in
Connecticut about a golf course near Darion that was The authentic not the long but not Greg Norman Greg Norman could hit the first te and it' go out you know somewhere in the in Long Island s woodbury's totally different you're playing there eight days a week what is what is it about a course made in 1916 you know it's an original Willie Park course so we've kind of gone back redesigned it made sure it's kind of staying true to that and it's just fun every day it's very walkable too it's designed to be walked So
you get the fresh air you have fun it looks easy it plays hard especially for me and you know just the ability to talk to people at the golf course the different perspectives you get that's been a fun part of life do you use more traditional older clubs on it instead of the new stuff that Damian sesar uses I use the newest and best stuff I can possibly get my hands on and the worst thing is every year we have a tournament you only play with two clubs and I think I score about three Strokes
worse with two clubs and with the whole bag but can't for try Woodbury Golf Course up in Darian Connecticut it's truly historic my grandfather used to talk about it years ago Paul so Peter when you're playing golf with with your buddies I'm sure they're asking you about the market you know Peter what do you think about the market what are you telling them today here we've got a Fed that looks like it's wants to cut rates we've got Earnings that are pretty solid what's your view of the market these days you know I would say
first I think there's a bit of a disconnect the data has been coming out okayish and you know finally we're seeing a little bit of potential maybe not soft Landing data and that's what people been talking about a while for in their own businesses I think everywhere people are seeing a little bit of less spending less need to hire and that's finally coming through the Data and then the other part really has been in the markets where do we stand on AI yes AI is transformational yes it's good yes it's going to get better but
are we overpaying for it right now of companies that don't really have a use case for it over spending and I think that's where we're at right now and we're going to see a bit of a Slowdown and that's going to drag markets down for the coming weeks yeah I mean my my personal AI index is just Nvidia CU I Felt like for a while though that was the only stock people were buying to try to get exposure to it and of course that's down about 20% from its highs um so how does the market
repic for um maybe a more rational view of how AI is going to impact the economy in certain companies you know I think all those stocks that have benefited really from both the AI direct from the chip manufacturers to the data providers even to some extent the utilities I think put Bring a question do we have too much of a growth cycle built in so we pull back a little bit unfortunately in this world where you know the S&P and NASDAQ are dominated by so few stocks it doesn't take many stocks to drag those indices
down that's part of why we've gone up so I think you will see the small caps value maybe some of the smaller companies even within the S&P do okay it's going to be more the big Tech valuations come down then how do you Allocate so right now underweight are trying to even be short some of those versus trying to get long Valu so whoa whoa whoa you're short Apple for the brave NASDAQ 100 right now that's kind of where I want to be short going to scale into it a see how he wants to walk
out of the studio right now everything you know it's it's been a little bit choppy but we're back down on the NASDAQ 100 basically to where we were on August 2nd not down to August 5ifth lows I think we break through that as kind of some of this Euphoria wears off and my one key indicator if I have to look at one thing lately it may sound stupid I look at nvdl which is a two times leverag Nvidia ETF I have no idea mvdl I have no idea why it exists I'm pretending I don't know
what this is I'm day training crazy but yeah why we have two times leverage single stocks but that continues to get inflows and I think that's going to have to have some Outflows or some serious concerns cuz like you said Nvidia itself's down 20% this is down % wow except for recently right it's this double average and there even just simple volatility it erodes at your returns if you go back I think it was a month ago nvidia's unchanged Nvidia L's down 18% I want people to kind of get sucked that to me is my
froth indicator right now double leverage Nvidia from the peak the Nirvana of May May June 18th down 46% That's that's 2x kind of what the stock has done there so so Peter do you think we take out those those August lows I do I think so part of it is I think people got very comfortable that we'd seen capitulation right vix supposedly hit 65 but that was 8:30 in the morning vix Futures never got much above 40 so I think people piled back in saying ooh this is the wash out this was the capitulation trade
I don't think that's yet come I think we are going to get That I think our whether the debate Spurs some of this I think our own elections are kind of going to be a little bit negative for markets so all these factors are coming in and to me people got very complacent and very happy that oh we had this wash out trade I think it was a fake wash out we get the real wash out this time around Peter Shear I'm China Paul's been asking this question better than me but I mean come on
the Gloom there is is ginormous do You push against the gloom and go the other way you know I've starting to look back at Chinese stocks again we've kind of been off it for a while I'd lik it the start of the year a lot what I am watching and you know we've had this made by China theory that China is going to try and sell more and more of their brands globally that's going to put margin pressure on companies you know I think last week we just saw you guys did a report in Germany
the number one EV Selling is byd right so you're starting to see these Chinese Brands whether it's Teemu um helping push some of those Brands we've never heard of into first it's going to be the Emerging Markets maybe Western Europe a little bit it's going to be slower penetrated in the US but I think that it's going to cause some margin pressures again you look at the phone companies the Chinese phone companies are made great strides within China they're trying to sell those Brands outside so I think you nibble at China as part of this
whole rotation trade right what about yield right now I mean we were talking Paul Sweeny and I were talking about the Sweeney yield the two-year yield I mean it's back to 22 levels here so I'm more comfortable with the two-year though I think we've go got eight um cuts priced in the next six meetings I think that's one or two two many I think we get six in the next six meetings so there's a little bit room There I think the 10e is way too low I think that should be much closer to 4% and
I'm hoping knock on wood that the 10-year auction and the 30-year auction coming up this week put some pressure on Ys because I don't think sustainable here how much credit risk if any do you take in this Marketplace a lot of credit folks are saying that the spreads are just too tight I'm actually fairly fine with credit it's I look at it that this is much more valuation than recession Risk so if we were really talking recession I'd be worried about credit but I think this is more about valuations we might get some bumps along
the way and the one part to me that I still feel very compelling in credit is not only do you have the private credit really pushing in but now a lot of the big banks are realizing they're not generating the net interest margin they need on corporate credit so they're trying to lend especially the leverage Companies so I think if you support the bottom part of the market that goes all the way up and I think people are going to continue to look at governance and say you know what maybe Apple Microsoft some of these
really well-governed companies lots of cash can trade tighter than they currently are where's the Shad out right now it's September I saw great bar I'm sorry folks I can't cite it I'll give Barons credit but I'm guessing but it was a great bar chart of all the Months over a hundred years up and September's ugly ugly ugly where's your opportunity to rethink and reposition in September for February of next year now I think that's a great Point again I'm starting to look at the small caps and value in particular maybe we nibble a little bit
at China I want to be underweight the NASDAQ I want to see that to kind of sell off and maybe the other wild card which everyone doesn't want to seem to talk about but what it's Creeping up in more conversations is the consumer right the US consumer has been the stalwart right we're always spending and you're finally starting to see Consumer Credit look stretched you're seeing signs that your travel slowdowns everywhere there's little bits of slowdowns if the consumer starts rolling over into year end or early next year that's very problematic and that tips us
from bumpy Landing to maybe hard Landing pet cheer thank you so much greatly Appreciate it uh in particular the comments on uh a magical Golf Course up by Daren concut 1916 nice that's old that's an old course I yeah it's like's wooden Club I thought Sher would be out with a wooden clubs and the you know the knickers and you know all that you think he could find a newer course you know yeah you should see him in Scotland she it's unbelievable he's like 8 inches of rough he's like just like Woodway y Peter thank
you so much the mark do we Know why the Market's lifting I do not know why the Mark is I do not know I don't know we're up 14 you know it's a nice little lift I mean the nasty nasdaq's given us some love here you know I think maybe it was the announcement that Tucker back from a 201k to a 301k NASDAQ up 310 of a percent with our news in New York City John Tucker all right Tom Paul and Lisa SpaceX launching a rocket carrying four private astronauts to space part of a Groundbreaking
Mission aimed at performing the worst world's first commercial space walk 5 4 3 2 1 [Applause] [Music] and cop one alpha on board the mission called Po Po's Dawn is billionaire Jared isaacman who previously flew to orbit with SpaceX in 2021 and provided funding for the flight and its development and a countdown on for the highly anticipated presidential debate tonight in Philadelphia Bloomberg's Amy Morris looking at how the candidates are preparing ing vice president Harris's strategy in part is reportedly to hold former president Trump accountable while maintaining a calm demeanor on stage Harris's challenge is
that she's not well defined to a lot of potential voters Donald Trump on the other hand is quite well defined people know him his strategy may be to change some perceptions and soften his Edge a bit Bob MCN is a former White House energy adviser to President George W bush and he told Bloomberg News what he'd be listening for I hope they get pressed on respective plans uh for Iran because in terms of what's going to affect the pump price for you me and our neighbors I think it has to do with Iran Bob MCN
talking with Bloomberg's Joe Matthew this debate is the biggest opportunity the candidates may have to reset the conversation and their image now that The conventions are over and officials anticipate a huge viewing audience in Washington Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio and officials are tracking tropical storm franceen as she CHS in the Gulf of Mexico the outer bands will impact the Texas Coastline as it veers Eastward through Louisiana's Basin and then to the states just North the storm could become a category 2 Hurricane by Wednesday when it is expected to make landfall the founder of single and
the City this is an organization that puts on speed dating events in New York and Austin says singles are out of practice they've forgotten how to engage with people face to face uh supported by a new Stanford University study just to aggravate me yes it supports the conclusion that the pandemic virus sparked a recession in America's uh social lives for Millions dating and other social activity never actually recovered and the effects aren't just Personal psychological but also um economic even political the idea is you you meet you move in you get married you have kids
you buy a house a car and then you fight and then fight some more uh generates a lot of what is this Dr John you know the therapy I'm getting here I'm just saying this is an actual scientific study Lisa's behind you chowing down a bacon and egg and cheese M griddles and she's she's laugh she could you imagine the economic activity She could generate oh but you're married never mind forget it so so a singles thing is all dead is that the is the summary well they're at of practice and they're not you know
doing what they do normally generating all that economic activity having a beverage of your choice at a club in a bar could you imagine what we could teach them the experience in this room John Tucker you're on troubled ground Futures let me do a data check and save the marriage Futures up 17 now Futures up 43 the Vick's 19.21% [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business App this is a Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio
I'm Lis Mato Futures in the green this is as investors gear for another key inflation report out tomorrow a key US presidential debate tonight and also the European Central bank's policy meeting later in the week we'll also get more feds speak today we have the feds Michael bar and also Michelle Bowman speaking uh right now we have Nasdaq futures up 310 of percent 70 Points down Futures up a tenth of percent 49 points S&P futures up 3/10 of percent or 17 points the 2-year yield at 3.65% that's down one basis point the yield on the
10year 3.69% and that is little changed to Commodities we have spot gold higher $2,510 an ounce uh Brent crude $71 a barrel WTI crew $68 a barrel moving the markets avocado supplier Mission Produce ticker Avo up 177% reported fiscal third quarter Revenue top analyst estimates and then Us online grocery Shoppers well they're getting some relief data from Adobe it shows that online grocery prices fell 3.7% in August from a month earlier that was the largest deine since the company began tracking numbers yeah in 2014 so prices starting to go down online gr grocery shopping not
in store yet that is a Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul I don't know where that is in a bunch of years I mean people buying Online versus people going out like you are buying six carriages at you know whatever store but I mean in 10 years are we all buying online is that like where we're heading more people my sister's a big instacart fan I don't know she does her online what are you do we go to the store old fashioned we have fun what you it's it's an event it's an event exactly it
is get out and about you know did you buy gold bar when you were at Costco last time you did not go To the gold bar got a hot dog se you got a hot dog no gold bar Bloomberg surveillance this morning were're brought to you by interactive brokers their portfolio analyst consolidate analyze all your financial accounts on one powerful dashboard for free sign up for portfolio analysts do that at ibkr.com freea One More Time ibkr.com slf free paa one of our reoccurring themes this morning has been the Two-year yield lower lowerer lower Blake Ginn
head of us race strategies RBC Capital markets Blake just easy question how low can rates go I think this is about it I I mean we're pricing in you know very good premium for these 50 basis point cuts a pretty low terminal you know I'm one of the more optimistic guys you're going to talk to so you know I do think over the next two three months it's going to take some time but I think eventually we'll See uh data kind of stabilize if not um you know see some Tailwinds heading into 2025 and that
uh markets eventually now this is a longer term story but markets will eventually have to deal with uh you know a potential short fed cutting cycle that looks more like 95 98 so where are you on duration then I mean you're not out buying 10 20 year paper are you no like I said it's it's a difficult um it's a difficult story I think our thesis on the economy our thesis on the FED it's really best for kind of long-term positioning I think in the short run we're going to be very tactical I think the
fact that we've had these kind of mediocre uh NFP prints the start of bed cutting I think there were a lot of kind of big real money buyers that really just wanted to see that first cut um to really get the green light to start adding duration so I think it's going to be very hard to sell off to a large degree here but I think Over a three you know four Monon type of time frame and we head into 2025 and we get past the election when we have the cutting cycle going on um
that's where I think we can start to to kind of reframe the terminal rate discussion and kind of where the fed's headed but it's just going to be very difficult for the next month or two to see um yield sell off in a major way so like assuming the FED begins uh cutting rates here uh in a couple of weeks here how do you expect That Cadence to go over the next you know 6 to 12 months is that every meeting every other meeting that they frontload it how do you think the fed's going to
actually get it done yeah I I moved to every meeting Cuts uh at 25 basis point I I I still think the bar is relatively high on 50 um I think Waller gave some interesting comments um you know when he was speaking the other day post to NFP um in the written text he said uh when he was talking about the Conditions for a 50 and the written text it just said you know I need to see further deterioration but when he was actually delivering the speech he stopped and said deterioration not softening that was
an emphasis that was not in the written text so he clearly felt it was very important to say look it's not just going to be softening in the data it's not going to be stasis in the data we need to see deterioration before we're going to those 50s now that Being said I think the fed's very content to leave this premium for 50s priced of the curve because they're kind of having their cake and eating it too I mean they're getting the easing of financial conditions by having these deeper Cuts priced into the market but
at the same time they only have to go 25 basis points and they they lower that risk that they over loosen so what do you see is the issuance Dynamic I mean given selective uncertainties Peter Shear was just in saying they're not going to go 14 rate Cuts whatever what do CFOs do what the corporations do is they readjust their bond presentation I mean I think a lot of times um you know we put a lot of emphasis on the FED as far as you know corporate credit and things and I think um you know
spreads obviously I I think some of uh you know some of those plans are much more driven by kind of all-in yields about where spreads are and so um The fed's only one piece of it and I think like I said I mean we have that easing priced in now and um you know if I if I was uh personally sitting in that seat um and I had the view that I have that the economy is going to do better that the fed's not going to cut as much um this may be a great opportunity
because you do still have um that premium for a harder Landing that premium for 50 basis points priced in and if you believe like I do that you Know three four months time that may start to disappear um you know maybe this is a very good opportunity for that boy it seems like that you know the Market's already been working pushing yields down I got the 10e treasury 3.69% where do you think we end up the year Blake so I actually think we can get back above 4% not much more above that but I think
we can get back above 4% um I I would also say I mean we're all kind of very Ultra focused on um the fed and Uh you know the labor markets over the last month uh but it wasn't too long ago we were really talking about the election and both of the past election Cycles uh we've seen yields sell off in a pretty big way out of that so um I think we've got both candidates you know regardless of who wins I think um you're probably looking at a larger deficit um you know obviously um
you know Trump has been kind of the steepener trade if you will So I think you get more of a sell-off pressure there but if we just look at the last two presidential election Cycles we have sold off from November to December in a pretty decent way so um I think that's still a risk that's out there I don't think that's C to our case I think my case is driven more around um you know this kind of economic positivity uh and kind of where I see the FED discussion headed but um let's just throw
that election on there As a risk Blake wi thank you so much RBC Capital markets a bunch at there this morning it's as you said the other day Paul I was taking notes price up yield down that's what I've been told that's how it works that's how it works in the fixed income Market you and I are look at what's Apple doing you know you know I just go to Lisa bramwit she's my credit my you know she's my what color are you going to get on the iPhone no I mean I usually I just
kind of go the Standard black but I'm going to have to go get a little creative this time I mean I mean the the smaller one has many colors very you know pink and teal and you know it's like a bright cheerful thing anog R from Bloomberg intelligence says get the 16 Pro that's what he told me to do that's what I'm going to do yeah I will get the bigger one the pr Max I just oh the pro Max okay I'm just glue I mean it's even bigger than this one I don't know maybe
it's too big Finally I don't know uh there is an accident in New York for those of you uh worldwide and particularly for those of you with tunnels in your city like Boston I think is a a city very much like uh New York and I'm going to piece this through help me out here New Jersey Transit buses Paul yep experiencing major delay there's a crash in a Lincoln Tunnel the middle tunnel no not that runs under the Hudson River um you know I don't want to be too inflammatory About it but it's led to
residual delays of 90 minutes yeah I mean you think about all the Aries more he'll have more on that but think about all the arteries that go in into and out of the Lincoln Tunnel yeah and of course the construction project there CU they're really starting it I mean oh more there are there's photographic evidence of a a new Hudson River like there was a new Boston years ago it is it's amazing and I'll give credit to the folks that are Building this thing out there because they are there's thousands of people out there every
day and every time I D I take the train by I look out and say that's new that wasn't there last week and they're just adding more and more bringing some of these new tunnels new Bridges I don't know what's going on out there but they're doing a good job surveillance correction surveillance uh uh correction uh this morning I said Woodbury on golf near Dar unit Woodway I Miss way I misspoke uh to say uh the the least Future's up 17 D Future's up 46 ofix 19 uh one6 there is that point on I believe
in a tumnal day and the VW bus comes down the road with James ear jones Field of Dreams good morning everyone [Music] oh [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keane and Paul Sweet Apple still minting more money than God right geopolitics front and center for Global Wall Street with Lisa Mato on markets Soxs are coming off of another record high and Michael bar with news US Secretary of State discussed the conflict in Gaza the best in economics Finance investment and International relations this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Radio good
morning everyone Tom King Paul Lisa Matteo Michael bar and assignment we may have a Michael bar attendance here late in the hour we're trying to schedule that with his people right now phone in you know you know whatever who knows where he is figured out government's working on that we welcome all of you on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg podcast great live chat out On uh YouTube thank you for that it's it's great we're talking about the Lincoln Tunnel small accident there John Tucker we'll have coverage on that as well Apple carplay Android auto as well
and along the Eastern Seaboard from Washington 991 FM Bloomberg 113r Flagship in New York and good morning 929 FM in Boston it's from Mount Kaden in Milano down to the National Hotel got an email for did you know the National Hotel it's Victorian and the rooms are Like Victorian basic yeah they're not playing around they're popping four five 600 bucks a night Black Island right that's I thought it was Motel 6 how do you get there you have to take a fery got to take a fer Point Judith good morning Point Judith Rhode Island one
of the ways I think you can come from long night like The Hampton on I'm sure my yacht can get there no no problem yach well take Lees I mean that'll work out as well red and green in the screen even Some red with a lift now Futures up 16 uh Dow futures in the vicinity of 41,000 again up 49 NASDAQ up 3/10 of a percent from the Interactive Broker Studios our Bloomberg business flash Lisa mat yeah you said it we've got some green on the screen after three major indexes kicked off the new trading
week with gains of at least 1% we have Nasdaq futures up 310 of per 61 points Dow futures up a tenth of percent 47 points S&P futures of 210 of a% 16 points the 2-year yield Three . 65% down two basis points the yield on the 10e 3.69% and that is little change to Commodities one point. oil we have Brent crude $71 a barrel WTI Crude $68 a barrel Chevron has joined Exxon shell shutting uh in uh shutting some wells is ahead of tropical storm Francine and then companies making news that's Apple and Google both
companies losing multi-billion Dollar Court fights with the EU we have Apple down about a Percent Google up 810 of a percent Alibaba shares higher in Hong Kong up 4% its stock was made directly accessible to investors in mainland China for the first time and finally that change over at Southwest Airlines chairman Gary Kelly stepping down along with six directors this is after facing pressure from activist investor Elliot investment yeah that is Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul Lisa mat thank you so much we'll have some we'll have some uh on That uh as we can
what the great distances in America is the distance from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh described by the Pennsylvania Turnpike that historic turn at eluna the land of Rolling Rock and we got to get that in sure but David gura is on uh the Eastern side for tonight's debate David I assume two candidates will speak to the people of Pennsylvania are they speaking to Philadelphia or are they speaking to Pittsburgh I think that the PO Focus Fus Is mostly on Pittsburgh but of course this state is so crucial Commonwealth forgive me is so crucial in in this election
and I think both the candidates are aware of that you look at the travel schedule after this debate Tom vice president Harris going down to North Carolina then back up here basically could take out a second home here in the state at the time that she and spending here Donald Trump as well so they understand the importance of it and look At the Electoral history over these last few Cycles how it's gone back and forth neither candidate taking this state in in all its diversity economic and Geographic for for granted spending a lot of time
here knowing that it's going to be on a razor's edge here come election night David when you speak to the uh Trump campaign officials what are their goals for this evening you know what they've been hammering a lot over these last few weeks is the fact that Vice president Harris hasn't done a lot of interviews she's only done one she hasn't had press conferences and so they're using this moment tonight as an opportunity to stress that and say look Donald Trump is out there he's Fielding questions the American people know him and what he stands
for that's not true of Vice President Harris they see this as a test in a moment when they can kind of convey that more to the American electorate on the debate stage tonight We saw that in a memo from two of former president Trump's key campaign advisors laying that out there showing the fact that he's willing to take questions there's nothing novel in that sense about what's happening tonight we'll see how vice president Harris responds to that but she has so far kept these larger events not in those interviews and not done press conferences former
president Trump had to California at the end of this week to have another press Conference the second one he's had here in just a matter of days the distinction folks as gura actually really studies the polls I sort of glance at him David out of this debate and as you mentioned California North Carolina and other states the first time I've asked this question is Florida in play I don't think that it's characterized as one of those big swing States but I will say what the Harris camp for instance is looking at are more Opportunities here
for Electoral College wins so they're stressing their their sizable operation on the ground in many states I'd say Florida's uh solidly in that second tier not the first tier of those those swing St so not not like it used to be I think four eight 12 years ago does Trump have people in every state does the former president have an organization as you just discussed of Vice President Harris it is not nearly as large or as formalized as the one That vice president Harris has which I should say she inherited from President Biden she taken
over that campaign wholesale so it's it's not the same in terms of its size and scope and and mechanics and the kind of investment that we've seen from the Democratic side we haven't seen on on the Republican side with former president Trump David I guess given the rules here this is unlikely to be a rough and tumble debate is it I don't think that it will be There will be some spirited moments I'm sure and I know that both camps are looking for opportunities to uh kind of knock the other candidate off his or her
her game but you're right having those microphones uh muted is going to create kind of a strange dynamic they can still take Jabs at one another and no doubt they'll respond to it we won't be able to hear the audible of what they're saying but uh you know we're we're at a point now where these debates are very Formalized Affairs there there isn't a lot of scrappiness to them two minutes for an answer a minute for a rebal and moderators who very squarely want to stay in control of what's happening on the stage at the
national Constitution Center tonight David G thank you so much 800 pm tonight our coverage of the debate in Philadelphia balance of powers uh Joe Matthew and Katie lions with Mr gur the debate at 900m as well Omar agular with us Schwab Omar thank you for this too brief uh uh discussion here we've got breaking news in New York but let's get something in Omar how have you reallocated into September after what we witnessed in August well you know I think the uh opportunities you know continue to open up uh we continue to work with our
clients to deploy cash as they extend duration to using you know intermediate you know bonds and high quality bonds as sort of a way to start extended duration From what it used to be a very cash heavy you know portfolio we also uh continue to encourage them to go into areas like small caps and international as a way to diversify from what they used to be just a heavy concentration on the mega caps and on the mech 7 large cap growth exposures they had Omar what is your expectation for what we will see from the
Federal Reserve come September uh 18 yeah well the FED I think can feel Very very comfortable thinking that the soft Landing they have been trying to do for a while is seems to be happening um and therefore you know they're the expectation is they're going to go 25 basing points even though all the data and all the economic activities should suggest that they should go for 50 there is really no reason to keep that you know higher level of rates you know as they have now given the where we are in the economic conditions but
but they Also feel very comfortable that even if they keep it at that level given that the economy is not as sensitive to interest rate as it used to be um they feel that you know they can take it slow down and and space themselves a little more and therefore they're going to be very disciplined they're going to be 25 basis Points each time they meet and unless they see a serious deterioration in the economy they will go for 50 do you link AI worries into the performance Of the mag 7 or can they be
discre from the chitchat over the future of AI great question Tom I I you know I beli on the me70 is really more about the the economic progression and the EPS growth projections they had and you know they have been running at an incredibly level and the level of free cash flow GE that these companies have generated over the last 5 years is impressive however if you look at the the ratio of what is their capital expenditure is to their Roi you know clearly you know the projection of what that means for EPS growth is
not consistent with the level of valuation they have today so it is one of those things like you know a great Sprinter that is going really quick in in the first part of the marathon at some point is going to run out of gas and it's not because it's not a good athlete it's just because it's very hard to keep the pace it's the same same situation that happens with the Projections for EPS growth and therefore you know while we still think it's pretty good investment you know it's not going to be easy to maintain
those multiples Omar thank you for the time too short a visit let's do it longer next time Mr agular is with Charles Schwab Futures up 17 with our news in New York City John Tucker the first and for now only debate between vice president CA Harris and former president Donald Trump just hours away the Candidates facing off for about 90 minutes tonight for the ABC News presidential debate at Bloomberg senior Washington correspondent Sala Mosen says this will be a unique encounter for at least one reason we're going to see kamla Harris meet Trump it's going
to happen before our eyes they're going to meet for the first time shake hands for the first time ever that's also rare we're seeing Harris prepare methodically like a student like she did in law School as a prosecutor and Trump is a Chaos Agent where there are no rules Mr Trump has agreed to ABC's rules that microphones will be muted but it's the other candid is turned to speak the Harris campaign had lobbied against that saying it would put the former prosecutor at a disadvantage in our coverage of the ABC News presidential debate that begins
at 8:00 pm. Wall Street time on a special edition of balance of power on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg television well we had a liftoff 4 3 2 [Applause] [Music] Falcon 9's launch of Polaris Dawn to low earth orbit from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida the mission intended to include the first fully commercial spacewalk using space suit technology developed by SpaceX and according to the FBI Americans were duped out of more than $5.6 billion last year through fraud schemes evolving cryptocurrency the FBI says it received nearly 70,000 complaints in 2023 by victims of financial fraud
involving Bitcoin ether and other cryptocurrencies a legendary actor with a legendary voice that's how James earol Jones was being remembered he died Monday at the age of 93 in Disney's Lion King He was king of the jungle remember who you are he was also the voice of Darth Vader and uh even CNN Jones was born in Mississippi back in 1931 and from the mirror problem snorers have been offered New Hope an epilepsy drug found to work against obstructive sleep apnea a randomized clinical trial of 298 people finds that half existing drug salamine saw dangerous respiratory
pauses in the night reduced by 50% until now the only treatment was a continuous positive airway pressure CPAP machine or mouthpieces like a lot of people find They unable to sleep with them on global news 24 hours a day whatever you want it with Bloomberg News Now Tom's actually snoring while I'm doing this report this is Bloomberg no my husband has a CPAP machine it's very difficult but but we're going to do this with G we're going to do this with German and the answer is Apple's working I don't think it's out yet well it's
a detector it doesn't help you with it just says you have it I don't know that I don't know you know I do you have any more uh personal medical uh problems you'd like to reveal about your spouse on the air Lis exactly cuz we're all ears here on Bloomberg Radio Lisa is there something you want to tell us here cuz everybody you know out on YouTube live chat thinks you're going for a job interview today doesn't she look it oh because of the jacket yeah look at that get my little I'm freezing that's I'm
freezing yeah that sometimes happens Here say the least uh Future's up 16 the vix 19.16 in Washington New York and Boston Bloomberg's surveillance [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 Hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio I'm Lisa Mato right now Futures there in the in the green Nasdaq futures up 3/ t0 of a percent Dow futures little change up about 38 points we have S&P futures up 3/10 per or 16 points
we have the 2-year yield at 3.66% that's little chains a yield on the 10e 3.69% and that is little change want to Check spot gold right now higher $2,513 announced we have Brent crude $71 a barrel WTI crw $68 a barrel to earnings we go Oracle up 9% quarterly profit bookings topped estimates that was a big thanks to its AI demand uh shares of cyber security company rubric down 4% it reported earnings but here's the thing blueberg intelligence says that doubts about growth in the second half of the Year could linger and finally shares of
BMW falling down 7% in Germany the car maker cut its outlook for the year they pointed to this faulty breaking system from A supplier caus a recall of 1 and a half million vehicles for on demand news 24 hours a day subscribe to Bloomberg News Now wherever you get your podcast I'm Lisa Matteo that's a Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul Lisa Matteo thanks so much Across the Nation now lucky to get him on because he's interviewing to be defensive coach at University of Michigan football after what happened with Texas the other day Mark Gman
joins us Mark Gman definitive on Apple Mark tell me the relationship of the frenzy I see from T-Mobile Verizon and AT&T to sell 1,200 1400 iPhones is that why Tim Cook's smiling because he knows the wireless companies are going to sell these things regardless wireless companies indeed are going to sell these things uh regardless Tom I mean despite the fact that these are iterative updates you have one pent up demand from prior years people who didn't upgrade and the Apple brand is really truly as strong as ever right so despite the fact you're not seeing
a lot of changes here people are going to buy these new phones anyways people are excited about them people like the new colors people like the new camera features so you know for Apple despite them very little it's always an exciting Time in every September you're not doing buy hold sale but what's your vector on the so-called service business Paul this is where if you have children these $2 $4 $12 things hit your checking account Mark does Services take off with these new toys um I think Services continues to expand right I mean the services
business is interesting because at some point you're going to see apple move move to a more AI infused search engine At some point this Google deal that generates about 18 to 22 billion a year from them is going to fall off a cliff uh because Regulators are seriously investigating it so that's hanging in the balance right now you're going to see a little dip probably but at some point when they switch to an AI based search engine deeper integration with Chad GPT to replace Google a new deal with Google Gemini to replace to Google search
Gemini being Google's AI Service Uh you're probably going to see things rebound right instead so I am optimistic long term about the company's Services business the one thing I will say though is when was the last time you downloaded an app right so the app Paradigm where people download apps and apple takes that commission from there that's sort of dwindling the industry has moved to more of a services in subscription model right where people are paying monthly for these things and that makes this Especially more lucrative for the company they're not making money off of
app downloads anymore they're making money off people subscribing to inapp purchases interesting so Mark the other piece of major news for Apple today and and Google uh Apple loses uh EU top court case over 13 billion euros in terms of a tax bill how important is this to the company and it or is it just one more of these regulatory headwinds that this Company's faces apple is a very PR and marketing driven company right and so for them this is something that is not great news but they're going to do everything they can to sort
of sweep it under the rug and so here's what they're going to do this is not going to impact you know the Apple Revenue number you're going to see them announced at the end of October where they talk about Q4 earnings right they're going to position this as an Extra tax bill right so on the balance sheet their tax effective tax rate is going to go up significantly uh because of that1 billion charge it's not like they're making a new cash payment uh that's coming out of their revenue it's not like their operating expenses are
going up this is this is tax right this is how they're going to to to position it and this is money that's been in an escrow account between apple in Europe uh for several years now and so they're Going to downplay this as much as they can and to answer your question this is just another regulatory hurdle and you know companies do face regulatory hurdles from time to time right but apple and some of these other companies they've been facing a lot lately and they're probably going to face more Mark Gman with us folks uh
for you worldwide when you say see according to Bloomberg y I mean nobody Paul it it his property output journalistic output is stolen at Bloomberg or worldwide in Tech like Mark Gman Mark Gman when you look and it's Tim Cook with rainbow and they're inside that fancy building I assume you've been in a bunch of times when you look at that what's your longevity your shelf life of Tim Cook yeah the the Tim Cook succession story is one I've been following uh extremely closely in in fact uh following Tim Cook's succession and the succession of
Apple's management team uh Is top three in my priority list and it has been for the last year or so uh Tim Cook is you know pushing 64 the rest of the Apple executive team they're in their early to mid-60s and so you're going to see this massive change over of Apple management over the next several years and you're seeing this starting uh later this year with the CFO Luca merry he's stepping down to CFO at the tail end of this year and he's going to move to more of an advisory role uh in charge
Of things that are like information systems real estate so a much more minute role compared to what he was doing before and you're going to see other Apple Executives move into these smaller roles over time as well uh Tim Cook it could go anywhere I mean I've heard people speculate that he's going to leave the next two to three years I've heard people believe that he's going to stay uh until he's 70 plus and pull a bob Iger right but technology Obviously is a is a younger person's game uh they have an era parent there
his name is John turnis he's the senior VP of Hardware engineering truth be told there's really no alternative to him to to anyone else but him being the new CEO down the road uh so I think that plan's in place but it's going to be a scary time when Apple begins that real change over Mark nobody cares all they want to know is is Mark German gonna buy the new Eyewatch you're out on Twitter you had to do a German correction on the eyewatch which Swatch are you you going to buy from Apple so you
can be cool in all those secret meetings you're in well I was originally thinking about the Apple watch uh series 10 I liked the one with the with the link bracelet and then I thought about it what's the difference between the series 10 and the watch Ultra that I'm wearing right now it's really battery life it's double the Battery life on the ultra versus the series 10 model and if you want to wear this thing to sleep if you want to use the sleep apnea detection if you want to do the s tracking it's kind
of difficult to use an Apple Watch that's basically going to run out of battery uh after the end of the day before you go to bed the the watch is going to be gone anyways right and so you really kind of need a two-day battery life so for me the Apple watch Ultra first of all the new black Color looks incredible uh even though there's nothing different I will be moving from the silver one to the to the black model um the other component here is that battery that I mentioned and the screen on the
ultra is a third brighter than the screen on the series 10 so you're getting a bit of better brightness there too and next year I expect a bigger revamp to the ultra see it's like Mr consumer dag I know Paul's taking notes here because you're are you Going to buy three or four of these things Mark Gman oh that's funny way too early in your morning thank you so much and I suggest the interview in Ann Harbor you can do both you can be defensive coach of the 0 in one r0 one in one Michigan
and also a continue worldclass coverage of Apple can't say enough Paul about his newsletter note yep he and Lucas Shaw are just killing it what is it about Los Angeles Los Angeles I mean they got those offices in Century City they don't they're at the sunset Tower Hotel pool side comparing notes mormal yep so but they're out there they're players they got the two young guys out there covering the tech and media and entertainment can't say enough about the newsletter sign up for him Luca shaww and Mark Gman was a power on yeah and and
Lisa help me screen time screen screen time screen time right yeah screen time and Power on those are powerful notes from uh Bloomberg News Real journalism not gossip but just like this is the Ze guys this is what's going on why are we up why am I up 20 I I don't we'll please a little lift we had a nice trade yesterday nice market after Friday de you know so we're coming back a little bit I I was completely in cash so you know safe sleeping like a baby oil 6856 West Texas intermediate gold 2543
from New York City Across the Nation worldwide Bloomberg surveillance [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio I'm Lis Mato alongside Tom keen and Paul Sweeney with your opening bell report now a lot on top this week that could affect the market CPI tomorrow PPI Thursday import prices Friday tonight we have that key US presidential debate and also the European Central Bank policy meeting later
in this week so let's see how things kick off on a Tuesday uh for Tuesday trading S&P 500 will start there Up about 310% 20 points at 5,491 the Dow up a tenth of a percent 60 points 4,884 and the NASDAQ up 310% 65 points at 16,9 48 we have the two-year yield at 3.6 6% that's little changed the yield on the 10e 3.70% and that is little changed as well we have spot gold higher $2,513 an ounce Brent crewed $71 a barrel WTI crewed $68 a barrel at the Open want to check in with
apple Google they lost multi-billion Dollar Court fights with the EU Apple saying it actually expects to record a one-time income tax charge in its fourth fiscal quarter of approximately 1010 billion after losing that battle we have Apple down about 610 of a % Google up 1% that is your Bloomberg opening bell report Tom and Paul I greatly appreciate that Ed llo out with some nice research on the Apple charge in Ireland it is escod In Ireland the Irish Times with a great essay this morning it's already escod it's already put aside it's in European debt
paper bills bonds whatever the way I look at this is take free cash flow guesstimate forward how many days of free cash flow is 13 gazillion ready yep 43 days yep no problem like it's like and and as Ed llo brilliantly says there's like literally eight companies where you can even have uh this conversation Edo thanks for that they'll Do much more on Bloomberg technology today on Apple Don a little bit here I got red and green in the screen open for trading I don't know what to make of the tape I think we're waiting
for CPI tomorrow yeah waiting for CPI I mean I think the fed's already kind of made its decision based upon the labor data uh because that's seems to be the fight they're fighting these days is uh the the labor market the Unemployment uh feeling like inflation by and large in Terms of of CPI and pce and all those types of data points I like that's been pretty well managed at this point and the revisions I I think are really really uh key there's no question about that the revisions uh in the unemployment rate the revisions
in non-farm payrolls the normal two month look back Paul the broader look back that Dr Wong has been uh so good on now finally the stars have aligned and joining us now after three trips to Mondo burrito at Levi Stadium section 415 is Michael bar Michael I don't care about the Jets and the 49ers the food at Levis is legendary how wonderful was it man oh man I I overate I mean Levis is great I mean it Second To None the hospitality Brian if you're listening you you are the man you you you are you
really hook this up man what's the number one thing in metalin the Jets and the Giants the New York New Jersey Jets and Giants What's the number one thing they can learn about football after your attendance at Jets 49ers well yes a San Francisco 49ers fan is a DieHard fan uh not like Philly but but they you know and I listen I wore my my Detroit Lion shirt uh because you know I hold a grudge and and they were very friendly we we were slapping high fives all in the stadium and it was fun and
of course Linda loved it and she yeah obviously Because the team won yeah uh yeah but it but oh my goodness it's a beautiful facility and Michael bar how good are these 49ers with no Christian MCA and they took care of the Jets pretty easily last night yeah I was surprised because as we're heading to the stadium it's like you know I'm hearing you know the chatter all of a sudden there's no CMC I'm like what and as I check it I'm like oh my God he's a late scratch it's like what happened and but
I tell you Man it's like Mason man is just great I love my man Mason now are you return are you return visiting Michael b December 30th 8:15 I'm guessing at Sunday Night Football Lions 49ers is this are you going to reserve the golf stream off of this again you know what a lot of fans said we'll see you in December I'm like yeah you're right you might safe travels Michael bar miss you thanks so much for that Michael bar in San Francisco taking in Monday Night Mrs bar very happy football yeah I guess so
joining us on when B rid Holz Barry rid Holz with the rid Holz wealth uh management host of Masters and business Barry the the seasoned adults you talked to an investment how much are their heads spinning after the first week of August and the first week of September you know the general sense is we we tend to overemphasize seasonality and then suddenly seasonality hits us with with a big rush that that first Week of September uh and the whole Japanese carry trade unwind you know at least in August there is some rational hindsight bias narrative
fallacy explanation for what took place September is just hey I guess things are more random than we uh than we realized so how do you think about seasonality barrier is that something you even worry about or are you just more I'm in the you know longer term time frame type of thing and I just maybe dollar cost Average or just put money to work when I think there's value right for for our our clients you know they're they're primar uh families and and some small foundations and endowments they're thinking 5 10 20 years what happens
in in any August 4th is irrelevant to them on the other hand you do have normal reactions from humans who are going to respond with hey is this something serious you know it's amazing it's 15 Years um almost 16 years after Leman blew up and and the financial crisis um that was was part of that and AIG and Marilyn bear and everybody else and there's still lingering PTSD there's still the sense that hey is this another one of those you know not every 3% pullback becomes a 5% correction becomes a 10% draw down becomes a
20% crash and yet every time that that memory kicks in people justifiably get nervous you you just have to remember what happened Afterwards and how the markets and the economy recovered Barry a really important interview and folks this is the joy of Masters in Business how long's a typical Masters in Business bury three hours anywhere from from 60 to 90 minutes 60 to 90 minutes unless it's Bill gross and then it's three hours yeah but the difference here is Tom King goes to Mike Wilson Mike what's a maret going to do Barry's really talking about
The adversity that Mike Wilson went through over the last 24 months what did you learn from Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley you know the first of all your track record makes a big difference in how people perceive you and your ability to say hey I may have gotten this this and this right but I got this wrong and here's why I'm reversing that prior call because what I expected to happen and the various metrics we track that would confirm this have not showed up and Therefore we're going to unwind this immediately people respect that most
most people in finance hate hate hate to admit they're wrong and you know I've been reading Ray doio for I don't know almost 20 years and Ry is the first person who another guest on Masters in Business who had made being wrong and making a mistake and and having investment errors a core part of his process which is mistakes are inevitable you can ignore them and or cover them up Or you can learn from them and integrate what you've learned into your process and he's obviously been wildly successful at that I can't convey enough folks
what Mr ridol said how important that is Paul get one more in here Barry so going along those lines I mean a lot of the successful hedge fund managers they do have kind of parameters hey if xsecurity is down y% we're selling is that a good strategy if you're a Trader absolutely If you're an investor it's a terrible uh strategy listen I I began my career on a trading desk and I will never forget what the head tra Trader drummed into everybody's head it's okay to be wrong it's unacceptable to stay wrong I mean that
is trading lore 101 and so if your timeline is measured in hours or seconds right well then you can't stay long very but on the other hand if you're a broad asset allocator if you're buying stocks and bonds not individual companies or Derivatives or options then you're going to allow time to work in your favor if you're buying individual stocks or options or bonds or whatever and you're on a p&l measure you get paid weekly and you get an annual bonus based on how well you do you can't afford to stay wrong because you you
never want to allow a small recoverable loss to turn into a debacle from which you there is no recovery Barry wi thank you so much an important conversation with Mike Wilson Morgan Stanley look for that uh Masters in Business on Bloomberg uh red and green on the screen a churned to the market with our news in New York City John all right Tom Paul and Lisa possible hurricane could hit the Gulf Coast this week disrupting energy supplies and more at Bloomberg meter around Rob Caroline tracking what is now tropical storm Francine Francine is now less
than 400 miles to the South Southwest of Cameron Louisiana now Moving North at 5 miles an hour it'll be turning more towards the North East later tonight and tomorrow it's expected to hit the Louisiana coast midday or early afternoon tomorrow that's why a hurricane warning is now in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to Grand Island Louisiana the City of New Orleans and the areas to the Pearl River East are under a tropical storm warning we expect the system to come Inland tomorrow afternoon as a category one or two Hurricane I'm Rob Carolyn Bloomberg Radio thanks
Robbie and we're just hours away from the first maybe the only debate between Kam Harris and former president Donald Trump and Bloomberg's Jody Snider has more on the ABC News presidential debate kamla Harris was not supposed to be on this debate stage but then when she uh took over for um President Biden as the nominee uh she is now facing a big test she hasn't debated in years uh she and Donald Trump um have Not matched before we're told so this will be um you know really a chance for her to Define herself uh to
the people to to the public uh in a policy oriented way we saw her at the Democratic Convention but there it was really her story here it's what is she going to do as president and also Define herself against her opponent that's Bloomberg's Jody Schneider part of our team of coverage of the ABC News presidential debate all kicks off tonight 8:00 pm Wall Street time on a special edition of balance of power on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg television the Russian Navy has started major drills that are planned to involve more than 400 vessels in multiple
locations and ship showcase its cooperation with the Chinese military Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to join the exercises known as ocean 2024 via video link from the Kremlin and a new study finds the amount in proportion of the powerful heat Traffic gas methane that humans spew into the atmosphere is rising helping to turbocharge climate change in 2020 the last complete year for which data is available the world put 68 million metric tons of methane in the the year up nearly 12% from 2000 uh this one from the Daily Mail British YouTuber Aaron man has set
a new Guinness World Record by building the world's largest smartphone the huge device me measures almost 7 feet tall it weighs as much as 200 kg that's about the same as a bottlenosed dolphin I don't know where they came up with that incredibly the device is fully functional complete with a touchscreen apps working camera 400 Wat flashlight charging port more uh the video shows the YouTuber playing games on the Streets of London and getting a friction burn on his finger while scrolling social media so it's almost the same size as the phone you still have
like the one That was in the Michael Douglas movie 25 years ago still works still holds a charge holds a charge sends out calls and gets calls in that's all you need really do you understand John Tucker when you go into the Apple Store the phone company the price tag on these new phones no one bothers there nobody at Apple saying and this phone is will they take a rebate with my uh old Motorola they you could trade in yeah the Blackberry black you could trade in Bring it it's a huge racket I mean the
whole trading thing is is Big at the wireless companies I think John Tucker thinking Lincoln Tunnel serious stuff tied up yeah I'll get an update on that in just a moment but uh if you were coming into the city lots of headaches this morning joh Tucker thank you so much red and green in the screen Nationwide Bloomberg's surveillance [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio I'm
Lisa Mato stocks are mixed Traders gearing up for tonight's US presidential debate and also a key inflation reading yeah CPI uh out tomorrow we have the NASDAQ up 310 of a percent 53 point 16937 the Dow little change down about 11 points 4,818 the S&P 500 up 310 of per 18 points at 5,489 the two-year yield at four uh 3.66% that's down one basis point they yield on the 10year 3.69% and that is little changed over to Commodes we have spot gold higher $2,599 an ounce we have Brent crude $71 a barrel TI crew $68
a barrel shares of Tesla up 2% Deutsche Bank named Elon Musk EV giant it's top pick and then BMW shares lower down 8% in Germany it Lowered Expectations for the year faulty braking system from A supplier it caused a recall of 1 and a half million vehicles and Southwest down two well more than 2 and a half% changes over there chairman Gary Kelly stepping down Six directors as well pressure from Elliott investment management that is your Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul uh thanks so much Lisa greatly appreciate it there's a debate tonight and it
will not be discussed but it's really front and center and that is when the facts change somebody better change and there is no greater shock in the developed economy world no not the United States I'm sorry the shock that the Mets have one what 14 in a row the Shock that the Red Sox are three games out is that right areas they three games out or something yeah it's we could have a Mets Red Sox World Series I'm positing that right now Heidi krao reaker is at the Council on Foreign Relations and she knows nowhere
have the facts changed like in Germany it's not going to be in the debate tonight but Heidi to your wonderful article in foreign affairs Magazine on China's double threat to Europe do these two Debaters tonight completely underestimate what China has done to Europe and what they could do to American business so I I don't think that the two Debaters tonight underestimate China at all I do think and this is the point of the the piece that I wrote with my my co-author lyanna fix um this is a this is really a blind spot for Europe
right now um on on China and the two threats are one on security uh particularly Russia's um China's support of Russia in um in its War economy and then the other is really the overcapacity and the and the second China shock particularly hitting EVS um and the Auto industry in Europe I mean Heidi's got Paul this great photograph of the Munich Auto Show with Eves from China could you imagine the Detroit International Auto Show with a whole penelopy of of blue Chinese TVs well yeah we'll see how that plays out so I mean uh Heidi
we we do have this Debate tonight I mean as you sit back and think about it from your perspective what do you think are the key issues for both candidates here what do they need to achieve here so I think the um I mean the first thing for for kamla Harris is you know for voters who don't know her the um issue a commander-in-chief can she be strong and calm and a steady leader on TV and and debates are very visual so the Optics matter she's a prosecutor She's um she's fantastic this is not a
courtroom though and so she is debating Donald Trump and so we've seen him debate before but we've also seen him debate with um with Hillary Clinton and so it's it's uh there are parts of this that will be not fair um because uh she is a woman and she is debating Donald Trump but uh I think this is you know this is going to be a chance for her to to actually Define herself Define what she stands for um and and really Introduce herself to the American voters do you get elected Heidi Kuba reaker on
foreign policy I don't buy it do you get elected on foreign policy so the primary focus for you know for everybody right now in the in the US is is the economy and and prices uh you know groceries the cost of Child Care Senior Care um medic you know medical bills and and all sorts of things that are are like on the on the kitchen table but I do think that that Trump's answer To this tariffs tariffs tariffs does bring in um the the foreign policy angle um in the foreign Economic Policy space which uh
you know it it would it would certainly not bode well for um for any kind of of relationships that we've built over the past four years with with allies and partners if we suddenly slap um for for no reason 10% across the board tariffs um on all of our all of our good friends so I think that is where you could see foreign policy Really showing up as a major as a major component of this so Heidi how do you think the US policy towards China should evolve should it be one of Engagement with China
or should it be one of kind of isolation if you will uh so I don't think it's a it's not an it's not a an either or of how it should develop we have no choice um but to work with and communicate with constructively as possible China um it's our largest geopolitical um rival and uh And also one and also the second largest economy in the world and we do a lot of business with them we want to maintain uh the trade relationships that we have with them but we also want to do it eyes
wide open and know that we have a a second China shock coming right now with overc capacity how do we how do we make sure that the subsidies that China's provided for industry has uh doesn't doesn't uh negatively impact the US economy and US workers and then Eyes Wide Open on the on the military side too it's it's an aggressive neighbor um both in the South China Sea North China Sea um and East China Sea and uh and you know pushing pushing um all sorts of barriers with uh with its with its military actions together
with Russia it's something we have to keep our eyes wide open about Heidi thank you so much incredibly good Foreign Affairs magazine efforts put out month after month can't say enough about it Heidi K reaker is Senior fellow the Council on Foreign Relations an important essay removed from us but never nevertheless there is a decline of industrial Germany uh to consider uh her article in foreign affairs uh magazine Paul I think we got to frame out the markets here my head's spinning it's September 10th uh we got a big debate tonight gur is down there
I mean you know we're ready to go and you know all that but I I just I I just look at the market and I'm Like okay we're going to get to the end September 30 and corporations are going to report some will win some will lose who are the winners I can't get a straight answer no I mean I think the uh the economy by and large Tom is is while it has slowed is still growing and most of the folks we talk to Tom say the growth is still uh pretty solid uh un
the labor market is still pretty solid uh interest rates are coming down um that seems pretty Constructive for decent corporate earnings and if you have a fed that's lowering rates a lot of the strategists that we talk to Tom say the focus is going to to the extent it was taken away from will now return to earnings corporate earnings and what type of number to me it's earnings it's Mar you know the the one thing uh Gina Martin Adams says margins have held up margins are they going to collapse yeah I don't know I you
know I I don't know it's and Then that you know on the top line um that's been a little bit weak according to Gina and Martin Adams but they've made up for it in the last quarter uh the S&P 500 with some margin Improvement so what you need to see from Gus perspective is a kind of a re acceleration here of Revenue and T extent the economy slowing uh for a lot of folks that could be a little bit tough here but uh Focus back on earnings and uh cuz we have a fed that's pretty
Darn clear with what they want to do James R Jones Field of Dreams on that you go into a guitar store and the cliche is play Stairway to Heaven the other cliche that doesn't get nearly enough respect is a guy named Tom Johnston and he was in a small startup band called The Doobie Brothers and it was such a cool band cuz they like three parts it and he never got the respect he got and it's a it's a cord riff he came up with at the fifth threat no pointy That you have to learn
okay and it's just like Stairway to have it it's just you got to do it and of course it's speaking of classic China growth [Music] yep when the comes up on S little town down around sandone and the folks are rising for another day round about their home people of of Str and the P of where they Came where you talking about [Applause] [Music]
