migration is a divisive subject some of the biggest upheavals of the past decade have been partly driven by the fear of mass migration but some compelling evidence is often overlooked and it tells a fascinating story one in 10 migrants flees war or persecution but the vast majority of them move to another country to improve their economic prospects The Economist has long argued for free movement of people because the evidence shows that opening the door makes the world richer migration is the biggest pre-lunch in economics at the moment is the simplest policy change you could make
that would have the most immediate effects in making the world richer the best estimate says that the world's GDP would be roughly double in somewhere between 50 and 150 percent bigger every year if people were allowed to work where they wanted that figure is based on a range of estimates and compiled in a paper by Michael Clements an economist entitled trillion dollar bills on the sidewalk hey Michael it's Asher here in Anna's she's a director of the film I'm gonna talk to you thank you the back of the envelope calculations make it I think beyond
doubts that there are trillion dollar bills on the sidewalk it's a tremendous wasted opportunity for everybody Michael looked at how much Richard the world would become if we removed different kinds of existing policy barriers for example removing all remaining trade barriers would increase the world's GDP by up to four percent but removing all barriers to migration would increase GDP by between 50 and 150 percent in other words more migration could make the world spectacularly richer just one in 20 people who are now living and working in poorer countries if 1 in 20 of those people
were to work in richer countries that alone would add more value to the global economy than dropping all remaining policy barrier to trade the same worker in Ghana working in the United States or the United Kingdom can see the productivity of their work go up by a factor of more than eight there's nothing inherent about that person that changes when they get off the plane it's it's being in this economy where they have access to other workers other capital other arrangements of production there are an estimated 270 million migrants in the world but another 750
million people worldwide would migrate if they could it actually only takes a modest movement of people to start to have macroeconomic impact I to the tune of trillions of dollars if you want to read Michael Clements is paper as well as The Economist coverage on migration you can click on the I at the top right corner of the screen when it comes to migration the biggest beneficiaries are the migrants themselves Beth works as a domestic helper in London she was born in the Philippines she started working at the age of nine but life was a
struggle so 23 years old I decided to to leave home I went abroad and I went to the Emirates to tell my family and to live up them from the property and it's a hurt for me to leave them but I need to sacrifice for them when Beth moved from the Philippines to the United Arab Emirates he immediately earned more money much of which she sent back to her family but she was deeply unhappy I cried a lot I miss my family during that time you earn money for your family so that's the main reason
why you're there not for pleasure for work after 13 years in the UAE Beth managed to move to London she found a job with a family he sponsored her for a visa I'm so happy to reach this prestigious country I found my employer is very nice and I'm still working her until now 16 years she now sends even more money back home which has contributed to her younger sisters education and paid for medical treatment for her nephew if you support them you're so happy you felt like you're successful the money that Beth sends back to
her family is known as remittance remittances are worth over 10 percent of GDP in 30 countries around the world including in the Philippines and in some countries such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan remittances are of a size equivalent to almost 1/3 of their GDP in 2019 remittances are expected to become the largest source of external financing for developing countries surpassing foreign direct investment and more than three times greater than foreign aid the benefits to the country's migrants come from go beyond money transfers migration builds trade ties with developing countries it transfers technology it builds investment links
if migrants eventually return they also often bring with them new skills and expertise some critics complain that there is a brain drain from poor to rich countries Michael Clements says the outflow actually benefits those poor countries there is no poor neighborhood poor city poor region or a poor country on earth that has ever been shown to have been developed in any sense by trapping people there the migrants themselves clearly benefit as do the countries they come from but what about the countries they move to a common perception is that migrants take jobs from locals undercut
wages and abused welfare in their host countries i javonni parry is an Italian born economist who researches the impact of immigration people have very strong opinion about immigration without knowing very well the facts the very basic facts the evidence is that immigrants do not compete very directly with natives in their jobs javonni's research finds that instead of competing for the same jobs immigrants to America largely compliment local workers you often end up working with them or managing them you need engineers you need four manager you need the sales representative you need clerks so this is
called the complementarity job job don't come in one job are connected when migrants take low-skilled jobs in rich countries such as looking after children or sweeping floors Giovani Perry finds that after immigrants arrive natives tend to move into higher skills higher paying work but what about high skilled migrants there is even much more of a positive impact here because they have a very big impact on in innovation and these measured as patents as new prod products as scientific innovation I would say that is a disproportionate contribution from foreigners in America immigrants or their children founded
45 percent of Fortune 500 companies including Apple Google and Levi Strauss despite the well-established benefits of migration most countries still make it very difficult to immigrate they do this because many voters object to immigration or are frightened of it immigration is disruptive and it needs to be managed carefully but the public perception of migration is often distorted a study carried out in 2018 asked people in six rich countries to estimate the percentage of the population or migrants in America the average estimate was 36 percent when in fact migrants made up only 13.5 percent of the
population people in other rich countries also tended to overestimate the number of migrants and they also overestimated the proportion of migrants who were unemployed which in some countries such as America is even lower than the unemployment rate of the people born there and these misperceptions about migration feed directly into government policy for this reason the odds seemed stacked against a sudden opening of borders but as Michael Clemens points out the changes need not be radical for people to start enjoying some of the potential benefits it certainly doesn't mean global anarchy and no regulation what it
means to me is is better regulation better lawful pathways for migration better lawful pathways for the most profitable and the most productive investment that's available to most of the world's poor and that's that's a tremendous opportunity for humanity as a whole so how should countries be shaping their migration policies that's the subject of another film which takes us to Australia a country were almost a third of the population are foreign-born and the economy has been growing steadily for 28 years you can find out more about how the world can learn from Australia's migration policy by
clicking on the link opposite the other link will take you to some of our resources including research data and a special report by The Economist's foreign editor as always if you enjoyed watching don't forget to subscribe [Music]
