Lana this is pretty fascinating look at this folks you are likely on this board right now one of these people this is the US population at this moment it's about 335 million people and whether the population grows or shrinks depends mostly on one thing and it might surprise you immigration you see in the census bureau's most recent estimate the population will continue to grow about roughly 2080 that's the line you see on this screen and reach about 370 million then it expects a decline to 366 million this is by 2100 but get this if there
is a large amount of immigration over the next several decades the population would continue increasing without any decline through 2100 all the way up to 435 million but there's another scenario here what if immigration dips there would then be a noticeable contraction to the US population it would Peak at 346 Million by 2043 and then uh that's 34 years earlier than in the previous scenario and then as you see here it drops to about 319 Million by 2100 so what does this all mean well the Census Bureau finds that immigration is the single most influential
factor in shaping the future of the US's population size as you see here foreign born individuals have become increasingly a large percent of the population and help to keep overall growth rates steady and that's because the number of native born US citizens is slowly decreasing and there are more us-born Americans dying than being born that's a phenomenon known as natural decrease also get this as the US population ages folks are having fewer children and in the census bureau's estimates older folks will surpass kids under 18 by 2029 that is just around the corner and this
is a key number this scenario will leave only about 60% of the population at working age that's 5% less than a currently working which as you might imagine will have significant impacts on tax income and the health of the US economy now the US is not going through this change alone Europe also seeing a significant aging of its population and that is partially what motivated French president Emanuel maon you may remember to attempt to raise the retirement age there which was a massively controversial issue joining us now is DAL Meers he's a professor of policy
planning and demography at the University of Southern California it's great to have you with us talking about this D so what effects would a shrinking population have on the United States overall well overall maybe there'd be fewer cars on the road that'd be a positive benefit but the the really issue is the ratios between the older and the younger age groups um the Baby Boomers you know are getting older they're retiring they a right to retire and we're becoming kind of topheavy in our population we need to have enough working age people underneath the retirees
in order to support them all it used to be classically we had a population pyramid where it be few people at the top and in a wide base at the bottom but the the latest numbers show that at the bottom is actually shrinking and tapering in so we're becoming topheavy on top um that that U that does not augur well for lots of things because we're sort of used to having a base of workers who can pay into Social Security and other tax um funds and that would support the older population the real issue is
we have twice as many older people and no growth in the working age and so that's making it lopsided I want to dig in a little bit more about this question of immigration because as you know it is a divisive issue among lawmakers but you're also highlighting all the reasons why given the current trends in US population uh that there are essential to broadening out the tax base if lawmakers decided to curtail immigration in a very big way as Erol pointed out would there be any alternatives to increasing the population and covering those taxes particularly
for the older Americans well if we shrink the immigration that would be a hit on all of our U doctors and surgeons and you know and also our health our home healthcare work ERS so we'd have a practical problem um but what we could do is um well basically you're going to have to have every um working age adult like age 35 is going to have to support a heavier load of older people and the only way that works in in my view is if we fortify them with stronger education today because then they will
be more productive as they become workers as children become workers and then they can carry that heavier load that's the only practical way because you can't stop aging that's going to keep happening the older people are going to retire and the kids are going to guarantee you they're going to grow up and become working age so we really want to fortify them to be the best possible workers they can be uh and then they can live the much more luxurious lifestyle themselves as consumers that they have better incomes because of their better jobs because of
their better education that we set them up for today so planning ahead we have to fortify the children of today to carry the load of tomorrow I mean these demographic Trends are really quite fascinating but as we watched uh unfold in France you know the president's efforts to raise their retirement age were extremely controversial it led to months of Street protests do you imagine that we could see similar moves in the US so it can adapt to an older population well we're already you know it's already happening people are retiring more slowly the the the
earliest retirement age occurred in like about 1984 and ever since then people have been working a little bit longer a little bit longer uh and and it's that's going to continue probably as we go as we shifted to the information economy you know these judges and loyers and professors they work until they're 80 uh and so that that's going to be happening more and more naturally that without having to require people to work longer uh so it's I think we're should expect that's going to be the norm um going forward so the young social media
influencers of today from gen Z will be working well into the 80s and 90s it's a fascinating future ahead of us all so yeah great to have you with us to talk about this really eye openening my pleasure thanks for having me
